Carbon may come cheaper than first predicted when California’s cap-and-trade program finally gets rolling.
Analysts at Thomson Reuters have dropped their projections of what polluters would pay for emissions permits from $40 to $36 per metric ton of CO2-equivalent gases.
Emilie Mazzacurati, who heads the firm’s North America Carbon Team, says pushing back the compliance date to 2013 and fears of a double-dip recession are behind the 10% trimming from its prior forecast.
Analysts say they expect greenhouse gas emissions to decrease in a sluggish economy. In 2009 and 2010, California’s emissions from power plants dipped by 12% due to a combination of milder temperatures, leading to less air conditioning demand, and a lull in manufacturing.
The trading price assumes that California goes it alone in cap & trade, although two Canadian provinces are expected to join the market eventually. Rules for the State’s cap & trade program have to be finalized by the end of October.
2 thoughts on “Analysts Cut Carbon Price Forecast for California”
The planet will probably settle at 1000 ppm co2 by the year 2150.Carbon, properly valued, should be priced at about $3000 per ton.This figure would include all damage to the environment and all damage to human cities and the people of Earth.In fact, a price anywhere below $900 per ton is ludicrous.The planet will have 7 billion people by October 2011.The environment and the benefits it provides to humanity is calculated at 40 trillion dollars per year.Gretchen Daily, Stanford biologist, and founder of the Natural Capitalism Project, is an expert in this area.Also Peter Ward has written science articles on what a 1000 ppm world will look like.Humans need to get real and price carbon so that we do not destroy the Earth.That price,properly accounting for all externalities and costs, is $3000 per ton.
The 6th major extinction, caused by man, has ushered in the sixth major geologic Epoch, the Anthropocene.This planet is in severe trouble.Meanwhile, Congres dickers and passes zero climate legislation.What a shame for the humans and the planet.Gives new meaning to the phrase”fiddle while Rome burns”.Climate change denialists and Republicans d’ont bother to post here your dribble about climate change not being real.It is.End of story.
Mark J. Fiore
Boston College Law School, 1987.
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