SoCal’s Big July Quakes Strained a Fault That’s Been Quiet for 500 Years, Study Says
Slow, Steady Quakes May Increase Risk Along San Andreas
Using 3D Visualization, Geologists Explore the Complex Areas Where Faults Join and Split
Parks Attract Affluent Homeowners to Earthquake Fault Zones Despite Risks
Digging Up New Info on Old Earthquakes in the Santa Cruz Mountains
California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us'
How California's Warping Microplate Makes Its Faults Creep
Lost and Found: The 1906 Earthquake Rupture in Portola Valley
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Prior to joining KQED, Amel worked at Al Jazeera America, Al Jazeera English, Democracy Now! and Punched Productions. She also helped produce \u003cem>Changing Face of Harlem\u003c/em>, a documentary that tracked gentrification in Harlem over a period of ten years. 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It now has begun a process called fault creep and has slipped 0.8 inch (2 centimeters) since July, the research found.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The study by geophysicists from the California Institute of Technology and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory was published in the journal \u003cem>Science\u003c/em> on Thursday, coinciding with the implementation of a statewide earthquake early warning system for the general public.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Southern California’s largest earthquake sequence in two decades began July 4 in the Mojave Desert about 120 miles (190 kilometers) north of Los Angeles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">A magnitude 6.4 foreshock was followed the next day by a magnitude 7.1 mainshock and then more than 100,000 aftershocks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Zachary Ross, assistant professor of geophysics at Caltech and lead author of the paper, said in a statement that it was one of the most well-documented earthquake sequences in history.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Ross developed automated computer analysis of seismometer data to detect the huge number of aftershocks with precise location information, Caltech and JPL said in a press release.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The JPL scientists mapped surface ruptures of the faults with data from Japanese and European Space Agency radar satellites.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">“I was surprised to see how much complexity there was and the number of faults that ruptured,” said Eric Fielding, a co-author of the study from JPL.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">About 20 previously unknown crisscrossing faults were involved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Ross said the 6.4 quake simultaneously broke faults at right angles to each other, which he characterized as surprising.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">It was a commonly held idea that major earthquakes are caused by rupture of single long fault, but that has been reconsidered since a 1992 quake in the desert near Landers, California, ruptured several faults.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The Ridgecrest sequence adds evidence of a more complex process.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">“It’s going to force people to think hard about how we quantify seismic hazard and whether our approach to defining faults needs to change,” Ross said. “We can’t just assume that the largest faults dominate the seismic hazard if many smaller faults can link up to create these major quakes.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The study was published on the 30th anniversary of the deadly magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake that badly damaged the San Francisco Bay area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Gov. Gavin Newsom marked the occasion by formally announcing the launch of the nation’s first statewide earthquake early warning system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Alerts previously were made available to schools, government agencies, industries and industries but not the general public, except in Los Angeles County where an app-based system has been in use since January.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The ShakeAlert system that has been under development by the U.S. Geological Survey and science institutions for years will now push alerts to cellphones through an app developed by the University of California, Berkeley, and the Wire Emergency Alert system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">ShakeAlert uses hundreds of seismic sensor stations to detect the start of an earthquake, calculate its location and strength and generate alerts that the app and WEA system send to phones in areas that are expected to have significant shaking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The intent is to provide seconds or tens of seconds in which people can protect themselves before shaking arrives at their location.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The Garlock Fault has been relatively quiet for 500 years. It now has begun a process called fault creep.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704848223,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":2,"wordCount":616},"headData":{"title":"SoCal’s Big July Quakes Strained a Fault That’s Been Quiet for 500 Years, Study Says | KQED","description":"The Garlock Fault has been relatively quiet for 500 years. It now has begun a process called fault creep.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"SoCal’s Big July Quakes Strained a Fault That’s Been Quiet for 500 Years, Study Says","datePublished":"2019-10-18T18:00:04.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:57:03.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Associated Press","sticky":false,"nprByline":"John Anticzak \u003cbr/>Associated Press\u003cbr>","path":"/science/1949485/socals-big-july-quakes-strained-a-fault-thats-been-quiet-for-500-years-study-says","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The earthquakes that hammered the Southern California desert near the town of Ridgecrest last summer involved ruptures on a web of interconnected faults and increased strain on a major nearby fault that has begun to slowly move, according to a new study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Ruptures in the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence ended a few miles from the Garlock Fault, which runs east-west for 185 miles (300 kilometers) from the San Andreas Fault to Death Valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The Garlock Fault has been relatively quiet for 500 years. It now has begun a process called fault creep and has slipped 0.8 inch (2 centimeters) since July, the research found.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The study by geophysicists from the California Institute of Technology and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory was published in the journal \u003cem>Science\u003c/em> on Thursday, coinciding with the implementation of a statewide earthquake early warning system for the general public.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Southern California’s largest earthquake sequence in two decades began July 4 in the Mojave Desert about 120 miles (190 kilometers) north of Los Angeles.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">A magnitude 6.4 foreshock was followed the next day by a magnitude 7.1 mainshock and then more than 100,000 aftershocks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Zachary Ross, assistant professor of geophysics at Caltech and lead author of the paper, said in a statement that it was one of the most well-documented earthquake sequences in history.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Ross developed automated computer analysis of seismometer data to detect the huge number of aftershocks with precise location information, Caltech and JPL said in a press release.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The JPL scientists mapped surface ruptures of the faults with data from Japanese and European Space Agency radar satellites.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">“I was surprised to see how much complexity there was and the number of faults that ruptured,” said Eric Fielding, a co-author of the study from JPL.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">About 20 previously unknown crisscrossing faults were involved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Ross said the 6.4 quake simultaneously broke faults at right angles to each other, which he characterized as surprising.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">It was a commonly held idea that major earthquakes are caused by rupture of single long fault, but that has been reconsidered since a 1992 quake in the desert near Landers, California, ruptured several faults.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The Ridgecrest sequence adds evidence of a more complex process.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">“It’s going to force people to think hard about how we quantify seismic hazard and whether our approach to defining faults needs to change,” Ross said. “We can’t just assume that the largest faults dominate the seismic hazard if many smaller faults can link up to create these major quakes.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The study was published on the 30th anniversary of the deadly magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake that badly damaged the San Francisco Bay area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Gov. Gavin Newsom marked the occasion by formally announcing the launch of the nation’s first statewide earthquake early warning system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">Alerts previously were made available to schools, government agencies, industries and industries but not the general public, except in Los Angeles County where an app-based system has been in use since January.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The ShakeAlert system that has been under development by the U.S. Geological Survey and science institutions for years will now push alerts to cellphones through an app developed by the University of California, Berkeley, and the Wire Emergency Alert system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">ShakeAlert uses hundreds of seismic sensor stations to detect the start of an earthquake, calculate its location and strength and generate alerts that the app and WEA system send to phones in areas that are expected to have significant shaking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"c0154 c0149\">The intent is to provide seconds or tens of seconds in which people can protect themselves before shaking arrives at their location.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1949485/socals-big-july-quakes-strained-a-fault-thats-been-quiet-for-500-years-study-says","authors":["byline_science_1949485"],"categories":["science_89","science_38"],"tags":["science_4081","science_257","science_3838","science_546"],"featImg":"science_1949492","label":"source_science_1949485"},"science_1925935":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1925935","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1925935","score":null,"sort":[1529440708000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"slow-steady-quakes-may-increase-risk-along-san-andreas","title":"Slow, Steady Quakes May Increase Risk Along San Andreas","publishDate":1529440708,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Slow, Steady Quakes May Increase Risk Along San Andreas | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Slow-moving earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault can trigger bigger, more destructive quakes, according to researchers at Arizona State University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://asunow.asu.edu/2018018-discoveries-asu-geophysicists-say-slow-earthquakes-san-andreas-fault-increase-risk-large-quakes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new study \u003c/a>published in the \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0160-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">journal \u003cem>Nature Geoscience\u003c/em>\u003c/a> suggests that this slow movement, which can last for months at a time, calls into question current models of earthquake forecasting that may be underestimating the risks.[contextly_sidebar id=”Cin32PqYMqLHXGAq35PYNgeUM76fIJGr”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many scientist have believed these gradual movements provide a safe and steady release of energy, helping to reduce the risk of a huge quake. But the new findings indicate that the motion of this continuous creep is in fact not steady, but rather consists of episodes of acceleration and deceleration.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These stop-and-go movements along the central section of the fault line can place a lot of stress on the locked segments along the fault’s outer portions, according to Manoochehr Shirzaei, co-author and assistant professor at ASU’s \u003ca href=\"https://sese.asu.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">School of Earth and Space Exploration.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that movement on the fault began every one to two years and lasted for several months before stopping,” Shirzaei said in a\u003ca href=\"https://asunow.asu.edu/2018018-discoveries-asu-geophysicists-say-slow-earthquakes-san-andreas-fault-increase-risk-large-quakes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> statement.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This stop-and-go motion is the result of high-pressure fluid in the fault zone, according to Mostafa Khoshmanesh, a graduate research assistant at SESE and the lead author.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Fault rocks contain a fluid phase that’s trapped in gaps between particles, called pore spaces,” said Khoshmanesh in a statement. “Periodic compacting of fault materials causes a brief rise in fluid pressure, which unclamps the fault and eases the movement.”[contextly_sidebar id=”pf4TxlaWuQCVjqOLHeWuNfP1mryvZC6C”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He links the phenomenon to two magnitude 7.9 earthquakes that occurred on the outer flanks of the fault line: Fort Tejon in 1857 and San Francisco in 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922612\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1922612\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-800x475.jpeg\" alt=\"Aftermath of the 1906 Quake, a photo taken by Arnold Genthe\" width=\"800\" height=\"475\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-800x475.jpeg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-160x95.jpeg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-768x456.jpeg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-1020x606.jpeg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-960x570.jpeg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-240x143.jpeg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-375x223.jpeg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-520x309.jpeg 520w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906.jpeg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Aftermath of the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco. \u003ccite>(Arnold Genthe/public domain)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Satellite\u003c/b>\u003cstrong> Data\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers used satellite data from 2003 to 2010 to track month-to-month changes in the ground along the central part of the San Andreas Fault. They combined these observations with seismic records to produce a mathematical model.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that this part of the fault has an average movement of about three centimeters a year, a little more than an inch,” Khoshmanesh said. “But at times the movement stops entirely, and at other times it has moved as much as 10 centimeters a year, or about four inches.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers say the findings are significant because they reveal a new type of fault motion that can trigger much larger, destructive earthquakes, a process that current models of earthquake forecasting systems don’t take into account.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Based on our observations, we believe that seismic hazard in California is something that varies over time and is probably higher than what people have thought up to now,” Shirzaei says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Current models are time-independent and don’t account for this variation in creep rate, he says. But “the hazard we discovered is time dependent and these periodic movements should be included in any models. Taking them into account will result in better models for earthquake prediction.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>U.S. Geological Survey models show a \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">75 percent chance for a 7 magnitude or larger earthquake\u003c/a> in northern and southern California within the next 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The new findings call into question current models of earthquake forecasting systems that may be underestimating the risks.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927789,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":17,"wordCount":572},"headData":{"title":"Slow, Steady Quakes May Increase Risk Along San Andreas | KQED","description":"The new findings call into question current models of earthquake forecasting systems that may be underestimating the risks.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Slow, Steady Quakes May Increase Risk Along San Andreas","datePublished":"2018-06-19T20:38:28.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:03:09.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Geology","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1925935/slow-steady-quakes-may-increase-risk-along-san-andreas","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Slow-moving earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault can trigger bigger, more destructive quakes, according to researchers at Arizona State University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://asunow.asu.edu/2018018-discoveries-asu-geophysicists-say-slow-earthquakes-san-andreas-fault-increase-risk-large-quakes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new study \u003c/a>published in the \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0160-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">journal \u003cem>Nature Geoscience\u003c/em>\u003c/a> suggests that this slow movement, which can last for months at a time, calls into question current models of earthquake forecasting that may be underestimating the risks.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many scientist have believed these gradual movements provide a safe and steady release of energy, helping to reduce the risk of a huge quake. But the new findings indicate that the motion of this continuous creep is in fact not steady, but rather consists of episodes of acceleration and deceleration.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These stop-and-go movements along the central section of the fault line can place a lot of stress on the locked segments along the fault’s outer portions, according to Manoochehr Shirzaei, co-author and assistant professor at ASU’s \u003ca href=\"https://sese.asu.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">School of Earth and Space Exploration.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that movement on the fault began every one to two years and lasted for several months before stopping,” Shirzaei said in a\u003ca href=\"https://asunow.asu.edu/2018018-discoveries-asu-geophysicists-say-slow-earthquakes-san-andreas-fault-increase-risk-large-quakes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> statement.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This stop-and-go motion is the result of high-pressure fluid in the fault zone, according to Mostafa Khoshmanesh, a graduate research assistant at SESE and the lead author.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Fault rocks contain a fluid phase that’s trapped in gaps between particles, called pore spaces,” said Khoshmanesh in a statement. “Periodic compacting of fault materials causes a brief rise in fluid pressure, which unclamps the fault and eases the movement.”\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He links the phenomenon to two magnitude 7.9 earthquakes that occurred on the outer flanks of the fault line: Fort Tejon in 1857 and San Francisco in 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922612\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1922612\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-800x475.jpeg\" alt=\"Aftermath of the 1906 Quake, a photo taken by Arnold Genthe\" width=\"800\" height=\"475\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-800x475.jpeg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-160x95.jpeg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-768x456.jpeg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-1020x606.jpeg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-960x570.jpeg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-240x143.jpeg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-375x223.jpeg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-520x309.jpeg 520w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906.jpeg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Aftermath of the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco. \u003ccite>(Arnold Genthe/public domain)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Satellite\u003c/b>\u003cstrong> Data\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers used satellite data from 2003 to 2010 to track month-to-month changes in the ground along the central part of the San Andreas Fault. They combined these observations with seismic records to produce a mathematical model.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that this part of the fault has an average movement of about three centimeters a year, a little more than an inch,” Khoshmanesh said. “But at times the movement stops entirely, and at other times it has moved as much as 10 centimeters a year, or about four inches.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers say the findings are significant because they reveal a new type of fault motion that can trigger much larger, destructive earthquakes, a process that current models of earthquake forecasting systems don’t take into account.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Based on our observations, we believe that seismic hazard in California is something that varies over time and is probably higher than what people have thought up to now,” Shirzaei says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Current models are time-independent and don’t account for this variation in creep rate, he says. But “the hazard we discovered is time dependent and these periodic movements should be included in any models. Taking them into account will result in better models for earthquake prediction.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>U.S. Geological Survey models show a \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">75 percent chance for a 7 magnitude or larger earthquake\u003c/a> in northern and southern California within the next 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1925935/slow-steady-quakes-may-increase-risk-along-san-andreas","authors":["11428"],"categories":["science_35","science_38","science_40"],"tags":["science_257","science_3370","science_3543","science_546","science_550"],"featImg":"science_1926054","label":"source_science_1925935"},"science_24079":{"type":"posts","id":"science_24079","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"24079","score":null,"sort":[1416515414000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"using-3d-visualization-geologists-explore-the-complex-areas-where-faults-join-and-split","title":"Using 3D Visualization, Geologists Explore the Complex Areas Where Faults Join and Split","publishDate":1416515414,"format":"aside","headTitle":"Using 3D Visualization, Geologists Explore the Complex Areas Where Faults Join and Split | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24080\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/serpboulder.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/serpboulder.jpg\" alt=\"Serpentinite\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24080\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">California’s earthquake faults seem to have a close relationship with serpentinite, a slippery stone that lubricates their motions. (Andrew Alden photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>On a map of the whole state, the great earthquake faults of California look like a pretty simple set of lines that join and divide in a loose tangle: the San Andreas Fault Zone. But what exactly happens where a fault splits in two? If you cut the map along those lines into wedges and slivers of the Earth’s crust, then try to move them past each other, you can’t make them fit exactly right. How does the Earth do it, and what does that mean for earthquake ruptures in these areas?\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24081\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 625px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/CAfaults-simple.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/CAfaults-simple.png\" alt=\"State fault maps\" width=\"625\" height=\"362\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24081\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Extremely simplified maps of our major faults. The places where the San Andreas, Hayward and Calaveras faults meet and join (or split, if you will) are a keen focus of earthquake research. (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Geologists have spent the last century mapping the state’s faults and measuring the tectonic ground motions that put stress on them. During that century, they’ve also monitored earthquakes of all sizes (most of them too small to feel) to see precisely where the action is happening on those faults. Only in the last couple of decades have they begun to look at faults in three dimensions. It’s a brain-busting exercise in 3D visualization, using several techniques to provide clues. \u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3045/\">Our own Hayward fault was an early subject.\u003c/a> A new paper in the journal \u003ci>Tectonics\u003c/i> (\u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014TC003561/abstract\">open access\u003c/a>) has begun to lay bare the intricate buried structure south of Hollister where two major faults come together, the San Andreas and Calaveras faults.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The work of peeking downward into the crust is slow and labor-intensive, but it’s our only way to check whether our maps are misleading us. It starts by tracing surface rocks downward into the ground, using gravity data and magnetic data to match patterns deep in the crust to confirm that rock units of the right density and magnetic characteristics exist where they’re expected. At the same time, the locations of thousands of tiny earthquakes show where faults are in motion today. Each of these forms of data—gravity, magnetics and seismicity—is fuzzy in its own way, making certainty almost impossible. However, it helps that we have precise data for the Earth’s surface—where the rocks and faults lie and how tectonic forces are moving the landscape. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the \u003ci>Tectonics\u003c/i> paper, Janet Watt and four of her colleagues at the U.S. Geological Survey office in Menlo Park assembled their evidence for the Calaveras–San Andreas junction, in the Coast Range mountains around Pinnacles National Park. Here’s what the faults look like on the map, close up. I’m not showing the rocks because it would be too confusing for anyone but a geologist to enjoy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24082\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/SAF-Calav-joinmap.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/SAF-Calav-joinmap.png\" alt=\"Map of San Andreas-Calaveras join\" width=\"600\" height=\"633\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24082\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Red lines are active faults; yellow dots are earthquake locations. H marks the town of Hollister. The three lines X-X’, Y-Y’ and Z-Z’ are cross section shown below. From Figure 1 of the Tectonics paper (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Putting together all of the data that I described, the authors built a detailed picture—a model, in scientific-speak—of the region. Here are the three cross-sections of that model. They’re what the model looks like if you sliced it apart along the three lines X-X’, Y-Y’ and Z-Z’.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileX-X.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileX-X.png\" alt=\"profileX-X\" width=\"599\" height=\"425\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-24083\">\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileY-Y.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileY-Y.png\" alt=\"profileY-Y\" width=\"599\" height=\"425\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-24084\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24085\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileZ-Z.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileZ-Z.png\" alt=\"Cross sections\" width=\"600\" height=\"425\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24085\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cross sections from Figure 6 of the Tectonics paper. Granite of the Gabilan Range on the left (west), mostly older rocks of the Franciscan complex on the right (east). Black dots are earthquake locations, red lines are active faults (dashed if possibly active).\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The model is quite an achievement. The authors singled out two noteworthy features, shown by the yellow dashed lines. These appear to be deeply hidden active faults that connect the San Andreas and Calaveras faults, transmitting motion between them. Over geologic time, these “cross faults” are very temporary things, but right now they’re important links in the chain of energy that causes our earthquakes. Because earthquakes can spread from one major fault to another, these are the things we need to find if we want to learn our earthquake future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another thing the authors point out is the key role of the rock serpentinite, which appears in the model as a usual suspect along these newly traced cross faults. Little did our legislators know how important “serpentine” is when they named it America’s first official state rock, back in 1965.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The cutting edge in earthquake research is mapping our most important faults in three-dimensional detail. A new paper finds some key hidden links in the Bay Area's fault system.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704932588,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":10,"wordCount":786},"headData":{"title":"Using 3D Visualization, Geologists Explore the Complex Areas Where Faults Join and Split | KQED","description":"The cutting edge in earthquake research is mapping our most important faults in three-dimensional detail. A new paper finds some key hidden links in the Bay Area's fault system.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Using 3D Visualization, Geologists Explore the Complex Areas Where Faults Join and Split","datePublished":"2014-11-20T20:30:14.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:23:08.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/24079/using-3d-visualization-geologists-explore-the-complex-areas-where-faults-join-and-split","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24080\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/serpboulder.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/serpboulder.jpg\" alt=\"Serpentinite\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24080\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">California’s earthquake faults seem to have a close relationship with serpentinite, a slippery stone that lubricates their motions. (Andrew Alden photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>On a map of the whole state, the great earthquake faults of California look like a pretty simple set of lines that join and divide in a loose tangle: the San Andreas Fault Zone. But what exactly happens where a fault splits in two? If you cut the map along those lines into wedges and slivers of the Earth’s crust, then try to move them past each other, you can’t make them fit exactly right. How does the Earth do it, and what does that mean for earthquake ruptures in these areas?\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24081\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 625px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/CAfaults-simple.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/CAfaults-simple.png\" alt=\"State fault maps\" width=\"625\" height=\"362\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24081\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Extremely simplified maps of our major faults. The places where the San Andreas, Hayward and Calaveras faults meet and join (or split, if you will) are a keen focus of earthquake research. (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Geologists have spent the last century mapping the state’s faults and measuring the tectonic ground motions that put stress on them. During that century, they’ve also monitored earthquakes of all sizes (most of them too small to feel) to see precisely where the action is happening on those faults. Only in the last couple of decades have they begun to look at faults in three dimensions. It’s a brain-busting exercise in 3D visualization, using several techniques to provide clues. \u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/sim/3045/\">Our own Hayward fault was an early subject.\u003c/a> A new paper in the journal \u003ci>Tectonics\u003c/i> (\u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014TC003561/abstract\">open access\u003c/a>) has begun to lay bare the intricate buried structure south of Hollister where two major faults come together, the San Andreas and Calaveras faults.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The work of peeking downward into the crust is slow and labor-intensive, but it’s our only way to check whether our maps are misleading us. It starts by tracing surface rocks downward into the ground, using gravity data and magnetic data to match patterns deep in the crust to confirm that rock units of the right density and magnetic characteristics exist where they’re expected. At the same time, the locations of thousands of tiny earthquakes show where faults are in motion today. Each of these forms of data—gravity, magnetics and seismicity—is fuzzy in its own way, making certainty almost impossible. However, it helps that we have precise data for the Earth’s surface—where the rocks and faults lie and how tectonic forces are moving the landscape. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the \u003ci>Tectonics\u003c/i> paper, Janet Watt and four of her colleagues at the U.S. Geological Survey office in Menlo Park assembled their evidence for the Calaveras–San Andreas junction, in the Coast Range mountains around Pinnacles National Park. Here’s what the faults look like on the map, close up. I’m not showing the rocks because it would be too confusing for anyone but a geologist to enjoy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24082\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/SAF-Calav-joinmap.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/SAF-Calav-joinmap.png\" alt=\"Map of San Andreas-Calaveras join\" width=\"600\" height=\"633\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24082\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Red lines are active faults; yellow dots are earthquake locations. H marks the town of Hollister. The three lines X-X’, Y-Y’ and Z-Z’ are cross section shown below. From Figure 1 of the Tectonics paper (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Putting together all of the data that I described, the authors built a detailed picture—a model, in scientific-speak—of the region. Here are the three cross-sections of that model. They’re what the model looks like if you sliced it apart along the three lines X-X’, Y-Y’ and Z-Z’.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileX-X.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileX-X.png\" alt=\"profileX-X\" width=\"599\" height=\"425\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-24083\">\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileY-Y.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileY-Y.png\" alt=\"profileY-Y\" width=\"599\" height=\"425\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-24084\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_24085\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileZ-Z.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/11/profileZ-Z.png\" alt=\"Cross sections\" width=\"600\" height=\"425\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24085\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cross sections from Figure 6 of the Tectonics paper. Granite of the Gabilan Range on the left (west), mostly older rocks of the Franciscan complex on the right (east). Black dots are earthquake locations, red lines are active faults (dashed if possibly active).\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The model is quite an achievement. The authors singled out two noteworthy features, shown by the yellow dashed lines. These appear to be deeply hidden active faults that connect the San Andreas and Calaveras faults, transmitting motion between them. Over geologic time, these “cross faults” are very temporary things, but right now they’re important links in the chain of energy that causes our earthquakes. Because earthquakes can spread from one major fault to another, these are the things we need to find if we want to learn our earthquake future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another thing the authors point out is the key role of the rock serpentinite, which appears in the model as a usual suspect along these newly traced cross faults. Little did our legislators know how important “serpentine” is when they named it America’s first official state rock, back in 1965.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/24079/using-3d-visualization-geologists-explore-the-complex-areas-where-faults-join-and-split","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_427","science_591","science_546","science_838"],"featImg":"science_24080","label":"science"},"science_20591":{"type":"posts","id":"science_20591","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"20591","score":null,"sort":[1408043858000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"parks-attract-affluent-homeowners-to-earthquake-fault-zones-despite-risks","title":"Parks Attract Affluent Homeowners to Earthquake Fault Zones Despite Risks","publishDate":1408043858,"format":"aside","headTitle":"Parks Attract Affluent Homeowners to Earthquake Fault Zones Despite Risks | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20592\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/SanJacinto-in-LomaLinda.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/SanJacinto-in-LomaLinda.jpg\" alt=\"Fault-zone park in Loma Linda\" width=\"600\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20592\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The San Jacinto fault cuts through this residential development in Loma Linda’s South Pointe neighborhood. State law forbidding construction near the fault has resulted in the fault becoming an amenity as well as a liability (Google Maps)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Since 1972, California law has forbidden builders and homeowners from building on earthquake faults that cross their property. 40 years later, some of those strips of hazardous land have turned into amenities: unexpected greenbelts that have attracted high-value homes and people to match, according to \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014EF000241/abstract\">a study in the upcoming issue of the journal Earth’s Future\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 1972 law began as the Alquist-Priolo State Special Studies Zone Act, a name designed to reassure the skittish. It mandates that the state map all hazardous active faults, and all property owners within a certain distance of the fault must disclose the fact to would-be buyers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wouldn’t this scare people away from houses sitting next to an earthquake fault? The Bay Area’s largest set of such homes is on the Hayward fault, which runs the length of the East Bay from Point Pinole to Fremont. I’ve heard stories of fault-line residents who resent visitors gawking at their cracked sidewalks and warped driveways. I once owned a home in an Alquist-Priolo zone, and it was a nervous-making experience to inform prospects during the sales process. Yet the homes still sell. And now the law has a more straightforward name, the Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zone Act.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Existing homes on the fault are exempt from doing much about it, which takes some of the sting out of the predicament. So while you’ll see decrepit houses or vacant lots here and there along our active faults, studies have shown that the Alquist-Priolo law has little effect on home values. The law makes a real difference in greenfield developments, where new homes are built on previously empty land. In the new study, a team of researchers led by \u003ca href=\"http://www.uvu.edu/profpages/profiles/show/user_id/10893\">Nathan Toké\u003c/a> started out thinking that the law might stigmatize these places, but they found instead that wealthy people appear to be attracted to the fault.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a fun way to use Google Earth, plug in \u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/kml.php\">the government’s maps of earthquake faults\u003c/a> as you hover over Southern California cities. You’ll soon see places where greenbelts and parks line up along an active fault. This image shows part of the suburban town of Highland, just east of San Bernardino, where the San Andreas fault runs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20593\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/SAF-Highland.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/SAF-Highland.png\" alt=\"San Andreas fault in Highland, CA\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20593\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">San Andreas fault (approximate location on the red line) runs through Highland at the foot of the San Bernardino Mountains. The young neighborhood is organized around the fault, treating it as a greenbelt and water feature—a real-estate asset. (\u003ca href=\"http://www.thulescientific.com/san-andreas-fault-map.html\">Sanandreasfault.org\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This curious pattern is familiar to most of us who think a lot about earthquake policy. Toké’s team went a step further, using geographic databases to examine the effect more precisely. They had detailed census data to overlay on the official Alquist-Priolo maps—household wealth, residents’ ages, minority status, population density, age of the housing stock and so on. From this data they devised a measure of “social vulnerability” for each census tract. As expected, their analysis showed that highly vulnerable tracts are clustered near environmentally toxic locations. But when it came to the hazard of earthquake shaking, Alquist-Priolo zones are favored by what you might call the socially invulnerable—well-off people with good jobs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Toké’s team turned to satellite images and showed that the same pattern holds in terms of green vegetation: while toxic zones (with their socially vulnerable inhabitants) are barren, the Alquist-Priolo zones are lush. Finally, they zeroed in on a handful of these paradoxical places and looked at the real estate. These new developments with their “fault zone parks” have the most valuable land parcels. Toké concluded that “people with access to financial and political resources, those with low social vulnerability, strive to live in neighborhoods with parks, even in the face of forewarned risk from natural hazards.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This all makes intuitive sense once it’s explained. And it’s plausible that new homes near the fault would be built extra strong for their wealthy buyers. That’s how we want things to be. But for the rest of us outside the Alquist-Priolo zones, the law adds no protection against earthquake shaking (or the other hazards endured by the poor). Toké points out that the law’s unintended effect was to attract “socially empowered residents” to the fault zone by promoting parks. “The effort to mitigate earthquake hazards thus, in surprising ways, may help reinforce existing environmental injustices.” More parks elsewhere might be the key: “One of the most important observations from this study is that the distribution of high social vulnerability is more strongly tied to the absence of the amenity of parks and greenspace than to natural hazards.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A more pressing question that Toké’s study did not address is what to do with Alquist-Priolo zones that are covered with pre-existing homes. What can we do on the Hayward fault? We will not know until the next major earthquake clears the ground there, in which case the work of Toké and other researchers may give us some clues for how to rebuild. A telling example might be that of Signal Hill, a little city surrounded by Long Beach. It sits on a hill raised by forces on the Newport-Inglewood fault and is surrounded by Alquist-Priolo zones. The hill was empty and available for residential development because history gave this locality a different sort of earthquake: for over 50 years \u003ca href=\"http://www.cityofsignalhill.org/index.aspx?NID=218\">it was a giant oilfield\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The Alquist-Priolo law keeps new homes away from active earthquake faults. But a study finds that the resulting 'fault zone parks' attract wealthy residents despite the seismic hazard.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704933137,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":990},"headData":{"title":"Parks Attract Affluent Homeowners to Earthquake Fault Zones Despite Risks | KQED","description":"The Alquist-Priolo law keeps new homes away from active earthquake faults. But a study finds that the resulting 'fault zone parks' attract wealthy residents despite the seismic hazard.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Parks Attract Affluent Homeowners to Earthquake Fault Zones Despite Risks","datePublished":"2014-08-14T19:17:38.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:32:17.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/20591/parks-attract-affluent-homeowners-to-earthquake-fault-zones-despite-risks","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20592\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/SanJacinto-in-LomaLinda.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/SanJacinto-in-LomaLinda.jpg\" alt=\"Fault-zone park in Loma Linda\" width=\"600\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20592\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The San Jacinto fault cuts through this residential development in Loma Linda’s South Pointe neighborhood. State law forbidding construction near the fault has resulted in the fault becoming an amenity as well as a liability (Google Maps)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Since 1972, California law has forbidden builders and homeowners from building on earthquake faults that cross their property. 40 years later, some of those strips of hazardous land have turned into amenities: unexpected greenbelts that have attracted high-value homes and people to match, according to \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014EF000241/abstract\">a study in the upcoming issue of the journal Earth’s Future\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 1972 law began as the Alquist-Priolo State Special Studies Zone Act, a name designed to reassure the skittish. It mandates that the state map all hazardous active faults, and all property owners within a certain distance of the fault must disclose the fact to would-be buyers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wouldn’t this scare people away from houses sitting next to an earthquake fault? The Bay Area’s largest set of such homes is on the Hayward fault, which runs the length of the East Bay from Point Pinole to Fremont. I’ve heard stories of fault-line residents who resent visitors gawking at their cracked sidewalks and warped driveways. I once owned a home in an Alquist-Priolo zone, and it was a nervous-making experience to inform prospects during the sales process. Yet the homes still sell. And now the law has a more straightforward name, the Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zone Act.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Existing homes on the fault are exempt from doing much about it, which takes some of the sting out of the predicament. So while you’ll see decrepit houses or vacant lots here and there along our active faults, studies have shown that the Alquist-Priolo law has little effect on home values. The law makes a real difference in greenfield developments, where new homes are built on previously empty land. In the new study, a team of researchers led by \u003ca href=\"http://www.uvu.edu/profpages/profiles/show/user_id/10893\">Nathan Toké\u003c/a> started out thinking that the law might stigmatize these places, but they found instead that wealthy people appear to be attracted to the fault.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For a fun way to use Google Earth, plug in \u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/kml.php\">the government’s maps of earthquake faults\u003c/a> as you hover over Southern California cities. You’ll soon see places where greenbelts and parks line up along an active fault. This image shows part of the suburban town of Highland, just east of San Bernardino, where the San Andreas fault runs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20593\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/SAF-Highland.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/SAF-Highland.png\" alt=\"San Andreas fault in Highland, CA\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20593\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">San Andreas fault (approximate location on the red line) runs through Highland at the foot of the San Bernardino Mountains. The young neighborhood is organized around the fault, treating it as a greenbelt and water feature—a real-estate asset. (\u003ca href=\"http://www.thulescientific.com/san-andreas-fault-map.html\">Sanandreasfault.org\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This curious pattern is familiar to most of us who think a lot about earthquake policy. Toké’s team went a step further, using geographic databases to examine the effect more precisely. They had detailed census data to overlay on the official Alquist-Priolo maps—household wealth, residents’ ages, minority status, population density, age of the housing stock and so on. From this data they devised a measure of “social vulnerability” for each census tract. As expected, their analysis showed that highly vulnerable tracts are clustered near environmentally toxic locations. But when it came to the hazard of earthquake shaking, Alquist-Priolo zones are favored by what you might call the socially invulnerable—well-off people with good jobs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Toké’s team turned to satellite images and showed that the same pattern holds in terms of green vegetation: while toxic zones (with their socially vulnerable inhabitants) are barren, the Alquist-Priolo zones are lush. Finally, they zeroed in on a handful of these paradoxical places and looked at the real estate. These new developments with their “fault zone parks” have the most valuable land parcels. Toké concluded that “people with access to financial and political resources, those with low social vulnerability, strive to live in neighborhoods with parks, even in the face of forewarned risk from natural hazards.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This all makes intuitive sense once it’s explained. And it’s plausible that new homes near the fault would be built extra strong for their wealthy buyers. That’s how we want things to be. But for the rest of us outside the Alquist-Priolo zones, the law adds no protection against earthquake shaking (or the other hazards endured by the poor). Toké points out that the law’s unintended effect was to attract “socially empowered residents” to the fault zone by promoting parks. “The effort to mitigate earthquake hazards thus, in surprising ways, may help reinforce existing environmental injustices.” More parks elsewhere might be the key: “One of the most important observations from this study is that the distribution of high social vulnerability is more strongly tied to the absence of the amenity of parks and greenspace than to natural hazards.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A more pressing question that Toké’s study did not address is what to do with Alquist-Priolo zones that are covered with pre-existing homes. What can we do on the Hayward fault? We will not know until the next major earthquake clears the ground there, in which case the work of Toké and other researchers may give us some clues for how to rebuild. A telling example might be that of Signal Hill, a little city surrounded by Long Beach. It sits on a hill raised by forces on the Newport-Inglewood fault and is surrounded by Alquist-Priolo zones. The hill was empty and available for residential development because history gave this locality a different sort of earthquake: for over 50 years \u003ca href=\"http://www.cityofsignalhill.org/index.aspx?NID=218\">it was a giant oilfield\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/20591/parks-attract-affluent-homeowners-to-earthquake-fault-zones-despite-risks","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_35","science_38"],"tags":["science_427","science_1754","science_64","science_546"],"featImg":"science_20593","label":"science"},"science_15553":{"type":"posts","id":"science_15553","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"15553","score":null,"sort":[1395345957000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"digging-up-new-information-on-old-earthquakes","title":"Digging Up New Info on Old Earthquakes in the Santa Cruz Mountains","publishDate":1395345957,"format":"aside","headTitle":"Digging Up New Info on Old Earthquakes in the Santa Cruz Mountains | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>As we try to learn more about earthquakes and the geologic forces that create them, we can look in two directions—to the present and to the past. Earthquakes that happen today are well recorded by seismometers, but we have to wait for them. In the meantime, we can cover more time by searching the past. A good recent example is a study mapping a San Andreas Fault earthquake that happened in 1838, long before we had seismometers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://www.bssaonline.org/content/104/1/285.abstract\">paper in the February \u003cem>Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America\u003c/em>\u003c/a>, written by \u003ca href=\"http://geology.uoregon.edu/profile/streig/\">Ashley Streig\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://pages.uoregon.edu/dogsci/2/weld/05/ray-home.htm\">Ray Weldon\u003c/a> of the University of Oregon and Tim Dawson of the California Geological Survey, described some of the painstaking work needed to document earthquakes in the “pre-instrumental period.” It combines written information from dusty archives and geological information from mucky ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquakes last only moments; despite the destruction they can cause, they don’t leave many lasting traces. Broken buildings are usually cleared away and rebuilt; toppled trees rot away; landslides don’t stand out from \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/03/31/landslide-season/\">those that happen every wet season\u003c/a>. This is especially true in the deep woods of the Santa Cruz Mountains, where the San Andreas Fault runs through thinly settled country. But Streig’s team found a little stream valley along the fault’s trace at a locality called Hazel Dell, near the small town of Corralitos north of Watsonville. Here they did a trenching study and documented three large earthquakes—more precisely, three instances of movement on the fault—during the last two centuries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15554\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/hazeldellmap.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15554\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15554\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/hazeldellmap.png\" alt=\"Hazel Dell trenching site\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Map of the Hazel Dell locality with San Andreas Fault traces in red. Modified from Streig et al., BSSA, doi:10.1785/0120130009\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Trenching is a kind of dissection of the ground. The photos below are from a trenching exercise that I witnessed a few years ago. Here are the steps. First, very carefully map the traces of the fault and pick a spot to dig a trench across the fault, using a backhoe. Insert steel braces in the trench to hold the walls safely up. Next, take hand tools and carefully scrape both walls of the whole trench to best display the layers under the ground. Set up a precise grid of white string and start mapping whatever you can discern.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15555\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall01.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15555\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15555\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall01.jpg\" alt=\"Paleoseismic trench wall\" width=\"500\" height=\"403\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Paleo-quake researcher Jim Lienkaemper, reaching through a brace, sprays a groomed trench wall with water to bring out sedimentary details and prevent the clay from cracking. Colored dots mark interesting details. Andrew Alden photos\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Mark the boundaries of whatever you see—color changes, different textures, offsets and discontinuities—using a trowel or twig. Mark bits of wood or charcoal that could be dated by radiocarbon.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15556\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall1.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15556\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15556\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall1.jpg\" alt=\"Detail of trench wall\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A possible bit of charcoal, or more likely an old plant root, is outlined on the trench wall along with other features.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Lay clear plastic over the trench wall and transfer onto it everything you’ve marked. Add notes. Photograph everything in good light. Print the photos and start pasting them together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15557\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall2.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15557\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15557\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall2.jpg\" alt=\"Paleoseismic trench photos\" width=\"500\" height=\"266\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photos of the annotated trench wall. Red lines are possible fault cracks\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Keep pasting the photos until a complete mosaic is assembled. Roll up the plastic sheets and photomosaics, pack up the samples, pull out the braces and refill the trench.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15558\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall3.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15558\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15558\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall3.jpg\" alt=\"Paleoseismic photomosaic\" width=\"500\" height=\"300\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Almost done with the fieldwork!\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Take everything back to the lab, assemble it into a database, run tests on the samples, and scratch your head and stare at everything for a long time. It’s an incredible amount of work, but trenching is the only way to pin down prehistoric and pre-instrumental earthquakes. Not every trench pays off, either.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Streig’s team did this at Hazel Dell in sixteen places over the course of three years. They picked the site because a stream running nearby has regularly flooded the spot, laying down a series of mud layers that are relatively easy to map. A big break came with the discovery of redwood chips in one of those layers that could only have been cut by a modern steel ax. Historical documents tell us that logging began here in the early 1800s, and carbon dating of the chips gave dates in the same range.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15559\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/redwoodchips.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15559\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15559\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/redwoodchips.jpg\" alt=\"Historical redwood chips\" width=\"500\" height=\"373\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Buried redwood chips from a Hazel Dell trench. Modified from Streig et al., BSSA, doi:10.1785/0120130009\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In their paper Streig’s team documented fault offsets from known quakes at Hazel Dell in June 1838, April 24, 1890 and April 18, 1906 plus a fourth, earlier seismic event. This precise record helped them tighten the less precise data from other trenches along the fault, and the history of fault activity in all of the Santa Cruz Mountains snapped into better focus. The data from Hazel Dell fits a model of earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault in which huge quakes (like 1906) that rip long segments of the fault interrupt an ongoing series of smaller quakes. It also fits another model in which smaller quakes lead up to the biggest ones in a supercycle or “earthquake storm.” And it fits a model in which earthquakes are essentially random. But that’s part of a bigger conversation in earthquake science.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Human records, like official documents and letters written by the local inhabitants, are a crucial part of this kind of research. For an example, see the \u003ca href=\"http://www.memphis.edu/ceri/compendium/eyewitness/index.php\">database of eyewitness accounts\u003c/a> of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes in the Mississippi Valley, compiled by the University of Memphis. And more documents turn up all the time. Earthquake scientist Sue Hough told me, “Letters with earthquake references languish in a million places: tucked away in archives, posted online at least for a while.” She studies early California quakes and is always looking for more documentary data.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We don’t all have the know-how to do trenching studies, but we can all read old letters. Think of them as \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/quakemags/a/didyoufeelit.htm\">“Did You Feel It?” reports\u003c/a> from the past. The 1838 earthquake could have been recorded by hundreds of people. With each new testimonial retrieved from oblivion, no matter how small, people today can add to the permanent record.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"New research has mapped 19th-century earthquake ruptures along the San Andreas Fault in a study that combines geologic and human records.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704933980,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":1031},"headData":{"title":"Digging Up New Info on Old Earthquakes in the Santa Cruz Mountains | KQED","description":"New research has mapped 19th-century earthquake ruptures along the San Andreas Fault in a study that combines geologic and human records.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Digging Up New Info on Old Earthquakes in the Santa Cruz Mountains","datePublished":"2014-03-20T20:05:57.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:46:20.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/15553/digging-up-new-information-on-old-earthquakes","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>As we try to learn more about earthquakes and the geologic forces that create them, we can look in two directions—to the present and to the past. Earthquakes that happen today are well recorded by seismometers, but we have to wait for them. In the meantime, we can cover more time by searching the past. A good recent example is a study mapping a San Andreas Fault earthquake that happened in 1838, long before we had seismometers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://www.bssaonline.org/content/104/1/285.abstract\">paper in the February \u003cem>Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America\u003c/em>\u003c/a>, written by \u003ca href=\"http://geology.uoregon.edu/profile/streig/\">Ashley Streig\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://pages.uoregon.edu/dogsci/2/weld/05/ray-home.htm\">Ray Weldon\u003c/a> of the University of Oregon and Tim Dawson of the California Geological Survey, described some of the painstaking work needed to document earthquakes in the “pre-instrumental period.” It combines written information from dusty archives and geological information from mucky ground.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquakes last only moments; despite the destruction they can cause, they don’t leave many lasting traces. Broken buildings are usually cleared away and rebuilt; toppled trees rot away; landslides don’t stand out from \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/03/31/landslide-season/\">those that happen every wet season\u003c/a>. This is especially true in the deep woods of the Santa Cruz Mountains, where the San Andreas Fault runs through thinly settled country. But Streig’s team found a little stream valley along the fault’s trace at a locality called Hazel Dell, near the small town of Corralitos north of Watsonville. Here they did a trenching study and documented three large earthquakes—more precisely, three instances of movement on the fault—during the last two centuries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15554\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/hazeldellmap.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15554\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15554\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/hazeldellmap.png\" alt=\"Hazel Dell trenching site\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Map of the Hazel Dell locality with San Andreas Fault traces in red. Modified from Streig et al., BSSA, doi:10.1785/0120130009\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Trenching is a kind of dissection of the ground. The photos below are from a trenching exercise that I witnessed a few years ago. Here are the steps. First, very carefully map the traces of the fault and pick a spot to dig a trench across the fault, using a backhoe. Insert steel braces in the trench to hold the walls safely up. Next, take hand tools and carefully scrape both walls of the whole trench to best display the layers under the ground. Set up a precise grid of white string and start mapping whatever you can discern.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15555\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall01.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15555\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15555\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall01.jpg\" alt=\"Paleoseismic trench wall\" width=\"500\" height=\"403\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Paleo-quake researcher Jim Lienkaemper, reaching through a brace, sprays a groomed trench wall with water to bring out sedimentary details and prevent the clay from cracking. Colored dots mark interesting details. Andrew Alden photos\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Mark the boundaries of whatever you see—color changes, different textures, offsets and discontinuities—using a trowel or twig. Mark bits of wood or charcoal that could be dated by radiocarbon.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15556\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall1.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15556\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15556\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall1.jpg\" alt=\"Detail of trench wall\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A possible bit of charcoal, or more likely an old plant root, is outlined on the trench wall along with other features.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Lay clear plastic over the trench wall and transfer onto it everything you’ve marked. Add notes. Photograph everything in good light. Print the photos and start pasting them together.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15557\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall2.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15557\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15557\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall2.jpg\" alt=\"Paleoseismic trench photos\" width=\"500\" height=\"266\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photos of the annotated trench wall. Red lines are possible fault cracks\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Keep pasting the photos until a complete mosaic is assembled. Roll up the plastic sheets and photomosaics, pack up the samples, pull out the braces and refill the trench.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15558\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall3.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15558\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15558\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/trenchwall3.jpg\" alt=\"Paleoseismic photomosaic\" width=\"500\" height=\"300\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Almost done with the fieldwork!\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Take everything back to the lab, assemble it into a database, run tests on the samples, and scratch your head and stare at everything for a long time. It’s an incredible amount of work, but trenching is the only way to pin down prehistoric and pre-instrumental earthquakes. Not every trench pays off, either.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Streig’s team did this at Hazel Dell in sixteen places over the course of three years. They picked the site because a stream running nearby has regularly flooded the spot, laying down a series of mud layers that are relatively easy to map. A big break came with the discovery of redwood chips in one of those layers that could only have been cut by a modern steel ax. Historical documents tell us that logging began here in the early 1800s, and carbon dating of the chips gave dates in the same range.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15559\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/redwoodchips.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-15559\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15559\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/redwoodchips.jpg\" alt=\"Historical redwood chips\" width=\"500\" height=\"373\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Buried redwood chips from a Hazel Dell trench. Modified from Streig et al., BSSA, doi:10.1785/0120130009\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In their paper Streig’s team documented fault offsets from known quakes at Hazel Dell in June 1838, April 24, 1890 and April 18, 1906 plus a fourth, earlier seismic event. This precise record helped them tighten the less precise data from other trenches along the fault, and the history of fault activity in all of the Santa Cruz Mountains snapped into better focus. The data from Hazel Dell fits a model of earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault in which huge quakes (like 1906) that rip long segments of the fault interrupt an ongoing series of smaller quakes. It also fits another model in which smaller quakes lead up to the biggest ones in a supercycle or “earthquake storm.” And it fits a model in which earthquakes are essentially random. But that’s part of a bigger conversation in earthquake science.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Human records, like official documents and letters written by the local inhabitants, are a crucial part of this kind of research. For an example, see the \u003ca href=\"http://www.memphis.edu/ceri/compendium/eyewitness/index.php\">database of eyewitness accounts\u003c/a> of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes in the Mississippi Valley, compiled by the University of Memphis. And more documents turn up all the time. Earthquake scientist Sue Hough told me, “Letters with earthquake references languish in a million places: tucked away in archives, posted online at least for a while.” She studies early California quakes and is always looking for more documentary data.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We don’t all have the know-how to do trenching studies, but we can all read old letters. Think of them as \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/quakemags/a/didyoufeelit.htm\">“Did You Feel It?” reports\u003c/a> from the past. The 1838 earthquake could have been recorded by hundreds of people. With each new testimonial retrieved from oblivion, no matter how small, people today can add to the permanent record.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/15553/digging-up-new-information-on-old-earthquakes","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_427","science_546"],"featImg":"science_15554","label":"science"},"science_15325":{"type":"posts","id":"science_15325","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"15325","score":null,"sort":[1394802018000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"california-shakin-weve-got-a-lot-of-earthquakes-ahead-of-us","title":"California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us'","publishDate":1394802018,"format":"aside","headTitle":"California Shakin’: ‘We’ve Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us’ | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15346\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15346\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/deg00013.jpg\" alt=\"The 1906 earthquake (USGS)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A woman surveys earthquake damage following the 1906 San Francisco quake. (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This is not exactly a news flash for long-time Californians. But scientists are starting to put more numbers on the inevitability that we all live with.\u003cbr>\n[contextly_sidebar id=”75eb0649d1156d7ece36bc7630c70ad7″]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>David Schwartz, U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, \u003ca title=\"Q-Forum - show\" href=\"http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201403120930\">told listeners to KQED’s Forum program\u003c/a> that there’s a 63 percent chance of a major quake on the San Andreas Fault sometime in the next 22 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Apparently that’s not enough to worry about, so Schwartz was joined on the program by \u003ca title=\"Am Scientist - bio\" href=\"https://www.americanscientist.org/authors/detail/john-dvorak\">John Dvorak\u003c/a>, author of “\u003ca title=\"Kirkus - review\" href=\"https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/john-dvorak/earthquake-storms/\">Earthquake Storms: The Fascinating History and Volatile Future of the San Andreas Fault\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘Earthquakes are not random events.’\u003ccite>John Dvorak, Geologist\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“Earthquakes are not random events,” said Dvorak, a former USGS scientist. “Earthquakes are clustered in time and space.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said the 1906 San Francisco quake represented a break along the northern section of the San Andreas Fault. A middle section north of Los Angeles broke in 1857, “but that southern part, south of Palm Springs, that hasn’t broken since 1680,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Contrary to the popular conception that a quake releases pressure along the fault, thus postponing the next temblor, Dvorak said the likelihood of a second quake rises with the first one. During any given three-day span, he said the odds of a magnitude 7 or larger quake are about 1:100,000 in California. But when a magnitude 7 earthquake occurs, he said the odds of another one at least as big in the next three days go to about 1-in-10.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You don’t need to panic,” said Dvorak. “You just need to have a heightened awareness that the ground could shake again soon.” Schwartz agreed that we can look forward to a whole lotta shakin’ going on. “We’ve got a lot of earthquakes ahead of us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And behind us. Schwartz said that seismologists have a “pretty complete record” going back to about 1600 and that we’ve been enjoying an eerily quiet interval. The hundred years or so starting around 1680, “literally every fault in the Bay Area” produced large earthquakes, releasing “almost as much energy as the 1906 earthquake.” After that, Schwartz said things went relatively quiet until the “Big One” in April, 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”5878627d97357ce29aa9a7578c08516a”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Schwartz said the worst-case scenario for Northern California would be a major break along the East Bay’s \u003ca title=\"Wiki - Hayward Fault\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayward_Fault_Zone\">Hayward Fault\u003c/a> or its neighbor to the north, the Rodgers Creek Fault. “There are two million people who fundamentally live right on top of it,” he said. “We’ve never had a major earthquake in the center of a modern U.S. city and we just really don’t know what’s going to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fracking Opponents Point to Seismic Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, three groups that oppose fracking in California released \u003ca title=\"Shaky Ground - main\" href=\"http://www.shakyground.org/\">a report\u003c/a> warning that a boom in the practice would pose a serious seismic risk to “millions of Californians.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fracking is shorthand for hydraulic fracturing, the technique that uses fluids under high pressure to loosen up oil and gas formations underground. Drilling companies also re-inject wastewater back into the ground, which has been shown to produce minor seismic activity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report appears to be largely a mapping exercise, which shows more than half of California’s “active and new” wastewater injection wells within 10 miles of faults that have been active within the last 200 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>None of the authors are seismologists. Patrick Sullivan, a spokesman for the Center for Biological Diversity, one of the three collaborating organizations, said that the authors consulted with seismologists at the University of California. He also cited recent reports of \u003ca title=\"USGS - release\" href=\"http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3710#.UyIc3s4QORU\">increased shaking in Oklahoma\u003c/a>, where scientists are “evaluating possible links” to oil and gas operations. Fracking has recently been suspected of triggering \u003ca title=\"NYT - post\" href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/us/ohio-looks-at-whether-fracking-led-to-2-quakes.html?hpw&rref=science&_r=0\">tremors in Ohio.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Tsunami Threat Varies\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many have pondered why last Sunday’s \u003ca title=\"Times-Standard - post\" href=\"http://www.times-standard.com/breakingnews/ci_25312898/location-sundays-6-9-quake-reduced-impact-north\">6.7 quake off the Northern California coast\u003c/a> did not produce giant, devastating waves. Schwartz explained that tsunamis are produced by the displacement of the sea floor. “That requires sort of an up-and-down movement,” he told listeners. “This was a strike-slip fault, where the movement is lateral, side-to-side, so it really doesn’t affect the sea bottom.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz also said the temblor was relatively small for that area, citing five other events within 50 miles, bigger than magnitude 7, since about 1900. But he added that smaller events can trigger tsunamis if they cause underwater landslides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both Schwartz and Dvorak agreed on the need for an earthquake warning system in California, but advised not to look to your dog for guidance in the meantime. “There’s no scientific evidence that animals can sense earthquakes before they happen,” says Dvorak.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"And some say that a fracking boom in California will raise the ante.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704934020,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":21,"wordCount":856},"headData":{"title":"California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us' | KQED","description":"And some say that a fracking boom in California will raise the ante.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us'","datePublished":"2014-03-14T13:00:18.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:47:00.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/15325/california-shakin-weve-got-a-lot-of-earthquakes-ahead-of-us","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15346\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15346\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/deg00013.jpg\" alt=\"The 1906 earthquake (USGS)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A woman surveys earthquake damage following the 1906 San Francisco quake. (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This is not exactly a news flash for long-time Californians. But scientists are starting to put more numbers on the inevitability that we all live with.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>David Schwartz, U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, \u003ca title=\"Q-Forum - show\" href=\"http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201403120930\">told listeners to KQED’s Forum program\u003c/a> that there’s a 63 percent chance of a major quake on the San Andreas Fault sometime in the next 22 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Apparently that’s not enough to worry about, so Schwartz was joined on the program by \u003ca title=\"Am Scientist - bio\" href=\"https://www.americanscientist.org/authors/detail/john-dvorak\">John Dvorak\u003c/a>, author of “\u003ca title=\"Kirkus - review\" href=\"https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/john-dvorak/earthquake-storms/\">Earthquake Storms: The Fascinating History and Volatile Future of the San Andreas Fault\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘Earthquakes are not random events.’\u003ccite>John Dvorak, Geologist\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“Earthquakes are not random events,” said Dvorak, a former USGS scientist. “Earthquakes are clustered in time and space.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said the 1906 San Francisco quake represented a break along the northern section of the San Andreas Fault. A middle section north of Los Angeles broke in 1857, “but that southern part, south of Palm Springs, that hasn’t broken since 1680,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Contrary to the popular conception that a quake releases pressure along the fault, thus postponing the next temblor, Dvorak said the likelihood of a second quake rises with the first one. During any given three-day span, he said the odds of a magnitude 7 or larger quake are about 1:100,000 in California. But when a magnitude 7 earthquake occurs, he said the odds of another one at least as big in the next three days go to about 1-in-10.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You don’t need to panic,” said Dvorak. “You just need to have a heightened awareness that the ground could shake again soon.” Schwartz agreed that we can look forward to a whole lotta shakin’ going on. “We’ve got a lot of earthquakes ahead of us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And behind us. Schwartz said that seismologists have a “pretty complete record” going back to about 1600 and that we’ve been enjoying an eerily quiet interval. The hundred years or so starting around 1680, “literally every fault in the Bay Area” produced large earthquakes, releasing “almost as much energy as the 1906 earthquake.” After that, Schwartz said things went relatively quiet until the “Big One” in April, 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Schwartz said the worst-case scenario for Northern California would be a major break along the East Bay’s \u003ca title=\"Wiki - Hayward Fault\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayward_Fault_Zone\">Hayward Fault\u003c/a> or its neighbor to the north, the Rodgers Creek Fault. “There are two million people who fundamentally live right on top of it,” he said. “We’ve never had a major earthquake in the center of a modern U.S. city and we just really don’t know what’s going to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fracking Opponents Point to Seismic Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, three groups that oppose fracking in California released \u003ca title=\"Shaky Ground - main\" href=\"http://www.shakyground.org/\">a report\u003c/a> warning that a boom in the practice would pose a serious seismic risk to “millions of Californians.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fracking is shorthand for hydraulic fracturing, the technique that uses fluids under high pressure to loosen up oil and gas formations underground. Drilling companies also re-inject wastewater back into the ground, which has been shown to produce minor seismic activity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report appears to be largely a mapping exercise, which shows more than half of California’s “active and new” wastewater injection wells within 10 miles of faults that have been active within the last 200 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>None of the authors are seismologists. Patrick Sullivan, a spokesman for the Center for Biological Diversity, one of the three collaborating organizations, said that the authors consulted with seismologists at the University of California. He also cited recent reports of \u003ca title=\"USGS - release\" href=\"http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3710#.UyIc3s4QORU\">increased shaking in Oklahoma\u003c/a>, where scientists are “evaluating possible links” to oil and gas operations. Fracking has recently been suspected of triggering \u003ca title=\"NYT - post\" href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/us/ohio-looks-at-whether-fracking-led-to-2-quakes.html?hpw&rref=science&_r=0\">tremors in Ohio.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Tsunami Threat Varies\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many have pondered why last Sunday’s \u003ca title=\"Times-Standard - post\" href=\"http://www.times-standard.com/breakingnews/ci_25312898/location-sundays-6-9-quake-reduced-impact-north\">6.7 quake off the Northern California coast\u003c/a> did not produce giant, devastating waves. Schwartz explained that tsunamis are produced by the displacement of the sea floor. “That requires sort of an up-and-down movement,” he told listeners. “This was a strike-slip fault, where the movement is lateral, side-to-side, so it really doesn’t affect the sea bottom.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz also said the temblor was relatively small for that area, citing five other events within 50 miles, bigger than magnitude 7, since about 1900. But he added that smaller events can trigger tsunamis if they cause underwater landslides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both Schwartz and Dvorak agreed on the need for an earthquake warning system in California, but advised not to look to your dog for guidance in the meantime. “There’s no scientific evidence that animals can sense earthquakes before they happen,” says Dvorak.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/15325/california-shakin-weve-got-a-lot-of-earthquakes-ahead-of-us","authors":["221"],"categories":["science_38","science_40"],"tags":["science_427","science_429","science_654","science_546","science_550"],"featImg":"science_15346","label":"science"},"science_8032":{"type":"posts","id":"science_8032","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"8032","score":null,"sort":[1378411205000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"how-californias-warping-microplate-makes-its-faults-creep","title":"How California's Warping Microplate Makes Its Faults Creep","publishDate":1378411205,"format":"aside","headTitle":"How California’s Warping Microplate Makes Its Faults Creep | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>Last week I gave a walking tour of the Hayward fault along the Oakland-Berkeley border. Among other things, I talked about the fault’s peculiar behavior called aseismic creep, in which the two sides of the fault move slowly past each other at just a few millimeters per year without the help of earthquakes. I pointed out places where creep has been gently distorting the streets. I explained that creep doesn’t remove much earthquake energy because it only affects shallow parts of the fault that can’t store much energy anyway. But I couldn’t say much more about it because geologists studying the creep problem have lots of questions, several hypotheses, and no answers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8037\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/stonewallfault.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8037\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8037\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/stonewallfault.jpg\" alt=\"Hayward fault creep\" width=\"600\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The creeping Hayward fault crosses Oakland’s Stonewall Road in 2001. All of this has since been rebuilt. Photo by Andrew Alden\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Just days later, \u003ca href=\"http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/41/9/\">the September issue of the journal \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em>\u003c/a> came out with a paper that makes an intriguing connection between our creeping faults and slow activity on the other side of the Sierra Nevada microplate, where the Earth’s outer shell is secretly splitting apart.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>(That’s right: The heart of California—the Central Valley and the mountains that ring it—is a separate tectonic plate, bounded by fault zones all the way around. The Sierra Nevada microplate rotates slightly and moves northwest at a few millimeters per year relative to the rest of the North America plate. California really \u003cem>is\u003c/em> different from its neighbors.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fault creep is quite uncommon in general, but a big central section of the San Andreas fault complex is creeping today while on either side the fault is locked, building up energy for large earthquakes like the 1906 quake in Northern California and the 1857 Fort Tejon quake in Southern California. The so-called creeping section runs from the village of Parkfield east of Paso Robles up to San Juan Bautista. Near there the Calaveras fault splits off from the San Andreas, and in turn the Hayward fault splits off from the Calaveras—and both of those faults also creep. See them shown in blue in this figure from the \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> paper. The authors are Laetitia Le Pourhiet, a French geophysicist, and Jason Saleeby, a geologist at Caltech’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/research/\">Tectonics Observatory\u003c/a> who has studied the southern Sierra Nevada for decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8033\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 568px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig1pourhietsaleeby.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8033\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8033\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig1pourhietsaleeby.jpg\" alt=\"Figure 1 Le Pourhiet-Saleeby paper\" width=\"568\" height=\"566\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1 of Le Pourhiet and Saleeby, “\u003ca href=\"http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/41/9/999.abstract\">Lithospheric convective instability could induce creep along part of the San Andreas fault\u003c/a>,” \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> v. 41, p. 999-1002 (Sept. 2013). Stars mark notable earthquakes in (north to south) 1906, 1989, 1983, 2004 and 1857.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>One of Saleeby’s most interesting lines of research is exploring how the dense rocky root of the southern Sierra broke off (delaminated) and sank into the hotter, softer mantle beneath to form a “lithospheric drip” starting about 4 million years ago. On the east side of the Sierra, the mountains responded by springing upward to create the dramatic eastern face that includes Mount Whitney, highest peak in the 48 states.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8034\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/southernsierra.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8034\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8034\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/southernsierra.jpg\" alt=\"Southern Sierra Nevada\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">East face of the southern Sierra Nevada at Owens Lake. Photo courtesy \u003ca href=\"http://www.flickr.com/photos/matthigh/\">Matthew Lee High\u003c/a> of Flickr via Creative Commons license\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The “Big Drip”, if I may call it that, is bending and twisting the rest of our microplate. On its west side, the drip is still attached and pulling down on the crust. The result is that the southern Great Valley is at its widest and deepest there, in the Tulare geologic basin. If you think of the Earth’s crust across central California as an air mattress floating in a pool, imagine a swimmer grabbing it in the middle from below and pulling down. The east end (the Sierra) bends upward and the middle (the Tulare basin) bends down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What happens farther west? Le Pourhiet did the computer modeling to show that the west side of the microplate arches upward by a hundred feet or so. That side is pinned against the San Andreas fault so it can’t simply break and spring upward like the eastern Sierra, which is being pulled away from Nevada.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8035\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 546px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig3pourhietsaleeby.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8035\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8035\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig3pourhietsaleeby.png\" alt=\"Sierra Nevada microplate warpage\" width=\"546\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Part of Figure 3 of the \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> paper; colors show the calculated vertical movements in response to the Big Drip.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>When the authors fed that result into a model of the San Andreas fault’s physics, the model accounted for the size and nature of the creeping section. There, most of the fault between the surface and its base at around 15 kilometers depth turns out weak and slippery, and only a narrow band of rock in the middle of that range has enough friction to gather a lot of strain energy. For the creeping section the model suggests a pattern of earthquakes no bigger than magnitude 6 or so, plus lots of creep. (In this picture the Bay Area is near the edge of that pattern, so while our faults creep they still are considered able to clobber us with magnitude-7 events.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So is any of this a scientific fact? Not yet; it’s just another good hypothesis that fits a variety of data but needs refinement. Scientific consensus is when everyone accepts a good hypothesis and moves ahead because they’ve run out of good counterarguments. We definitely haven’t reached that point for the San Andreas fault system. In the meantime, I can show you examples of Hayward fault creep \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/05/05/geological-outings-around-the-bay-a-visit-to-the-hayward-fault/\">in Hayward\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2013/04/18/gallegos-winery-and-the-hayward-fault/\">in Fremont\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/10/06/geological-outings-around-the-bay-point-pinole-and-the-hayward-fault/\">in Pinole\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"A tectonic \"Big Drip\" beneath the southern Sierra Nevada is connected to the creeping faults of Northern California in a new paper published in \u003ci>Geology\u003c/i>.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704935119,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":922},"headData":{"title":"How California's Warping Microplate Makes Its Faults Creep | KQED","description":"A tectonic "Big Drip" beneath the southern Sierra Nevada is connected to the creeping faults of Northern California in a new paper published in Geology.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"How California's Warping Microplate Makes Its Faults Creep","datePublished":"2013-09-05T20:00:05.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T01:05:19.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/8032/how-californias-warping-microplate-makes-its-faults-creep","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Last week I gave a walking tour of the Hayward fault along the Oakland-Berkeley border. Among other things, I talked about the fault’s peculiar behavior called aseismic creep, in which the two sides of the fault move slowly past each other at just a few millimeters per year without the help of earthquakes. I pointed out places where creep has been gently distorting the streets. I explained that creep doesn’t remove much earthquake energy because it only affects shallow parts of the fault that can’t store much energy anyway. But I couldn’t say much more about it because geologists studying the creep problem have lots of questions, several hypotheses, and no answers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8037\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/stonewallfault.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8037\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8037\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/stonewallfault.jpg\" alt=\"Hayward fault creep\" width=\"600\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The creeping Hayward fault crosses Oakland’s Stonewall Road in 2001. All of this has since been rebuilt. Photo by Andrew Alden\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Just days later, \u003ca href=\"http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/41/9/\">the September issue of the journal \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em>\u003c/a> came out with a paper that makes an intriguing connection between our creeping faults and slow activity on the other side of the Sierra Nevada microplate, where the Earth’s outer shell is secretly splitting apart.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>(That’s right: The heart of California—the Central Valley and the mountains that ring it—is a separate tectonic plate, bounded by fault zones all the way around. The Sierra Nevada microplate rotates slightly and moves northwest at a few millimeters per year relative to the rest of the North America plate. California really \u003cem>is\u003c/em> different from its neighbors.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fault creep is quite uncommon in general, but a big central section of the San Andreas fault complex is creeping today while on either side the fault is locked, building up energy for large earthquakes like the 1906 quake in Northern California and the 1857 Fort Tejon quake in Southern California. The so-called creeping section runs from the village of Parkfield east of Paso Robles up to San Juan Bautista. Near there the Calaveras fault splits off from the San Andreas, and in turn the Hayward fault splits off from the Calaveras—and both of those faults also creep. See them shown in blue in this figure from the \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> paper. The authors are Laetitia Le Pourhiet, a French geophysicist, and Jason Saleeby, a geologist at Caltech’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/research/\">Tectonics Observatory\u003c/a> who has studied the southern Sierra Nevada for decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8033\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 568px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig1pourhietsaleeby.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8033\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8033\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig1pourhietsaleeby.jpg\" alt=\"Figure 1 Le Pourhiet-Saleeby paper\" width=\"568\" height=\"566\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1 of Le Pourhiet and Saleeby, “\u003ca href=\"http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/41/9/999.abstract\">Lithospheric convective instability could induce creep along part of the San Andreas fault\u003c/a>,” \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> v. 41, p. 999-1002 (Sept. 2013). Stars mark notable earthquakes in (north to south) 1906, 1989, 1983, 2004 and 1857.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>One of Saleeby’s most interesting lines of research is exploring how the dense rocky root of the southern Sierra broke off (delaminated) and sank into the hotter, softer mantle beneath to form a “lithospheric drip” starting about 4 million years ago. On the east side of the Sierra, the mountains responded by springing upward to create the dramatic eastern face that includes Mount Whitney, highest peak in the 48 states.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8034\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/southernsierra.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8034\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8034\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/southernsierra.jpg\" alt=\"Southern Sierra Nevada\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">East face of the southern Sierra Nevada at Owens Lake. Photo courtesy \u003ca href=\"http://www.flickr.com/photos/matthigh/\">Matthew Lee High\u003c/a> of Flickr via Creative Commons license\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The “Big Drip”, if I may call it that, is bending and twisting the rest of our microplate. On its west side, the drip is still attached and pulling down on the crust. The result is that the southern Great Valley is at its widest and deepest there, in the Tulare geologic basin. If you think of the Earth’s crust across central California as an air mattress floating in a pool, imagine a swimmer grabbing it in the middle from below and pulling down. The east end (the Sierra) bends upward and the middle (the Tulare basin) bends down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What happens farther west? Le Pourhiet did the computer modeling to show that the west side of the microplate arches upward by a hundred feet or so. That side is pinned against the San Andreas fault so it can’t simply break and spring upward like the eastern Sierra, which is being pulled away from Nevada.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8035\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 546px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig3pourhietsaleeby.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8035\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8035\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig3pourhietsaleeby.png\" alt=\"Sierra Nevada microplate warpage\" width=\"546\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Part of Figure 3 of the \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> paper; colors show the calculated vertical movements in response to the Big Drip.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>When the authors fed that result into a model of the San Andreas fault’s physics, the model accounted for the size and nature of the creeping section. There, most of the fault between the surface and its base at around 15 kilometers depth turns out weak and slippery, and only a narrow band of rock in the middle of that range has enough friction to gather a lot of strain energy. For the creeping section the model suggests a pattern of earthquakes no bigger than magnitude 6 or so, plus lots of creep. (In this picture the Bay Area is near the edge of that pattern, so while our faults creep they still are considered able to clobber us with magnitude-7 events.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So is any of this a scientific fact? Not yet; it’s just another good hypothesis that fits a variety of data but needs refinement. Scientific consensus is when everyone accepts a good hypothesis and moves ahead because they’ve run out of good counterarguments. We definitely haven’t reached that point for the San Andreas fault system. In the meantime, I can show you examples of Hayward fault creep \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/05/05/geological-outings-around-the-bay-a-visit-to-the-hayward-fault/\">in Hayward\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2013/04/18/gallegos-winery-and-the-hayward-fault/\">in Fremont\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/10/06/geological-outings-around-the-bay-point-pinole-and-the-hayward-fault/\">in Pinole\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/8032/how-californias-warping-microplate-makes-its-faults-creep","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_5178","science_654","science_591","science_546","science_109"],"featImg":"science_8034","label":"science"},"science_6797":{"type":"posts","id":"science_6797","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"6797","score":null,"sort":[1375989774000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"lost-and-found-the-1906-earthquake-rupture-in-portola-valley","title":"Lost and Found: The 1906 Earthquake Rupture in Portola Valley","publishDate":1375989774,"format":"aside","headTitle":"Lost and Found: The 1906 Earthquake Rupture in Portola Valley | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>Geologic maps look as solid as the ground itself, with their crisp lines and firmly colored bedrock units. But geologists face the same bewildering world as the rest of us. Although they can see and visualize the bones of the land better than we can, mapping geology is as much a creative, interpretive act as an observational one. A paper in the current \u003cem>Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America\u003c/em> brings that home with a fresh look at a hundred years of geologic mapping in a high-stakes neighborhood: the leafy suburban town of Portola Valley, where the San Andreas fault tore the land apart in 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The great earthquake of April 18, 1906 was intensively studied by Bay Area geologists who were present in large numbers at UC Berkeley and Stanford University. Once the rubble at Stanford was under control, Professor John C. Branner and his students fanned out into the nearby foothills to document the fresh fault ruptures there. Branner compiled the results on a map and submitted it to Professor Andrew Lawson at UC Berkeley, who was preparing a master report funded by the Carnegie Commission. The work went on, the Stanford people went back to their lives and studies and Lawson’s “Carnegie Report” was issued in 1908.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6798\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpinebranner.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6798\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6798\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpinebranner.png\" alt=\"Branner's 1906 map\" width=\"600\" height=\"438\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">J. C. Branner’s original master map of the 1906 fault rupture in Portola Valley, now at the Bancroft Library. Images from \u003ca href=\"http://www.bssaonline.org/content/103/4/2404.abstract\">\u003cem>BSSA\u003c/em> paper by Wrucke et al.\u003c/a>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The Carnegie Report has stood for more than a century as a monument in seismology. It was the first and last word on the fault for many years. In fact, geologists did not return to the fault in Portola Valley for another fifty years. When they did, things began to get fuzzy. Roads had been rebuilt, buildings replaced, earth moved and trees planted as the open farmlands turned to wooded suburbs. With the 1906 rupture long smoothed over, the new geologic mappers relied on the landscape as well as the Carnegie Report to reconstruct the fault as best they could. Subtle features, perhaps thousands of years old, were added to the fault—sometimes as older or secondary fault traces, sometimes as the active trace. A body of research, much of it unpublished, began to grow. New maps modified old ones, and each new mapper made fresh modifications.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6799\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine1906.gif\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6799\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6799\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine1906.gif\" alt=\"Alpine Road 1906\" width=\"500\" height=\"370\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alpine Road in 1906, above, and the same view today, below.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6800\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine2013.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6800\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6800\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine2013.jpg\" alt=\"Alpine Road 2013\" width=\"500\" height=\"370\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photo by Andrew Alden\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Along with the science, the laws grew up around the fault. The 1972 Alquist-Priolo Act required all active faults in the state to be mapped and construction-free zones set up around them. With that, the exact location of an active fault trace became a crucial matter in real estate. Trenching studies were done for new construction projects, some of which found the fault and some of which didn’t. Discrepancies and interpretations continued to multiply, and the fault turned into a tangle of lines on geologic maps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By the turn of this century, it was clear that someone needed to take the whole thing again from the top, reanalyzing the original materials and assessing all the literature. How was the fault lost? Where did it really rupture in 1906? The job would take time, persistence and the judgment of a seasoned researcher. That’s what retired geologists are good for, and Chet Wrucke, emeritus scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey, happens to live in Portola Valley. He had access to the 1906 archives plus a new lidar map of the area showing the ground stripped bare.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wrucke found that errors began with the Carnegie Report itself: Branner’s map was used in two different published maps. The first one was accurate but looked preliminary while the second was inaccurate but looked finished.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6801\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine2maps.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6801\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6801\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine2maps.png\" alt=\"1908 fault maps\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Map 4 (left) used a topographic base with no other features while map 22 (right) put the fault about 80 meters west. Later mappers relied on the fancy-looking map.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>As he followed the literature he found more misinterpretations. Branner’s own notes were confusing, and some photographs from 1906 were later published reversed. Wrucke demonstrated this in one example by showing that a man’s suit had the buttons on the wrong side.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Once the photos were put in their correct places, the fault trace was easy to find, even on today’s landscape, with the lidar images. (\u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/15/geological-outings-around-the-bay-los-trancos-open-space/\">I showed you another example in nearby Los Trancos last year.\u003c/a>) It must have been especially satisfying for Wrucke to unveil Coal Mine Ridge, which is thickly carpeted with brush and poison oak, and see the 1906 trace running clearly up the hill.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6802\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpinelidar.gif\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6802\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6802\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpinelidar.gif\" alt=\"Lidar image\" width=\"500\" height=\"423\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The hummocky landslide surface shows that the fault trace crossing it (features marked “B”) must be very recent.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s unfortunate that it took a century to make things right. But lidar surveys were used to great effect after the 2010 Baja California earthquake, and the tool will be ready when the San Andreas lets loose again.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"New tools and old-fashioned sleuthing have cleared away a century's worth of errors from our detailed picture of what the San Andreas fault did to Portola Valley in 1906.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704935315,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":842},"headData":{"title":"Lost and Found: The 1906 Earthquake Rupture in Portola Valley | KQED","description":"New tools and old-fashioned sleuthing have cleared away a century's worth of errors from our detailed picture of what the San Andreas fault did to Portola Valley in 1906.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Lost and Found: The 1906 Earthquake Rupture in Portola Valley","datePublished":"2013-08-08T19:22:54.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T01:08:35.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/6797/lost-and-found-the-1906-earthquake-rupture-in-portola-valley","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Geologic maps look as solid as the ground itself, with their crisp lines and firmly colored bedrock units. But geologists face the same bewildering world as the rest of us. Although they can see and visualize the bones of the land better than we can, mapping geology is as much a creative, interpretive act as an observational one. A paper in the current \u003cem>Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America\u003c/em> brings that home with a fresh look at a hundred years of geologic mapping in a high-stakes neighborhood: the leafy suburban town of Portola Valley, where the San Andreas fault tore the land apart in 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The great earthquake of April 18, 1906 was intensively studied by Bay Area geologists who were present in large numbers at UC Berkeley and Stanford University. Once the rubble at Stanford was under control, Professor John C. Branner and his students fanned out into the nearby foothills to document the fresh fault ruptures there. Branner compiled the results on a map and submitted it to Professor Andrew Lawson at UC Berkeley, who was preparing a master report funded by the Carnegie Commission. The work went on, the Stanford people went back to their lives and studies and Lawson’s “Carnegie Report” was issued in 1908.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6798\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpinebranner.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6798\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6798\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpinebranner.png\" alt=\"Branner's 1906 map\" width=\"600\" height=\"438\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">J. C. Branner’s original master map of the 1906 fault rupture in Portola Valley, now at the Bancroft Library. Images from \u003ca href=\"http://www.bssaonline.org/content/103/4/2404.abstract\">\u003cem>BSSA\u003c/em> paper by Wrucke et al.\u003c/a>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The Carnegie Report has stood for more than a century as a monument in seismology. It was the first and last word on the fault for many years. In fact, geologists did not return to the fault in Portola Valley for another fifty years. When they did, things began to get fuzzy. Roads had been rebuilt, buildings replaced, earth moved and trees planted as the open farmlands turned to wooded suburbs. With the 1906 rupture long smoothed over, the new geologic mappers relied on the landscape as well as the Carnegie Report to reconstruct the fault as best they could. Subtle features, perhaps thousands of years old, were added to the fault—sometimes as older or secondary fault traces, sometimes as the active trace. A body of research, much of it unpublished, began to grow. New maps modified old ones, and each new mapper made fresh modifications.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6799\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine1906.gif\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6799\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6799\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine1906.gif\" alt=\"Alpine Road 1906\" width=\"500\" height=\"370\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alpine Road in 1906, above, and the same view today, below.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6800\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine2013.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6800\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6800\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine2013.jpg\" alt=\"Alpine Road 2013\" width=\"500\" height=\"370\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photo by Andrew Alden\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Along with the science, the laws grew up around the fault. The 1972 Alquist-Priolo Act required all active faults in the state to be mapped and construction-free zones set up around them. With that, the exact location of an active fault trace became a crucial matter in real estate. Trenching studies were done for new construction projects, some of which found the fault and some of which didn’t. Discrepancies and interpretations continued to multiply, and the fault turned into a tangle of lines on geologic maps.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By the turn of this century, it was clear that someone needed to take the whole thing again from the top, reanalyzing the original materials and assessing all the literature. How was the fault lost? Where did it really rupture in 1906? The job would take time, persistence and the judgment of a seasoned researcher. That’s what retired geologists are good for, and Chet Wrucke, emeritus scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey, happens to live in Portola Valley. He had access to the 1906 archives plus a new lidar map of the area showing the ground stripped bare.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wrucke found that errors began with the Carnegie Report itself: Branner’s map was used in two different published maps. The first one was accurate but looked preliminary while the second was inaccurate but looked finished.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6801\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine2maps.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6801\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6801\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpine2maps.png\" alt=\"1908 fault maps\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Map 4 (left) used a topographic base with no other features while map 22 (right) put the fault about 80 meters west. Later mappers relied on the fancy-looking map.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>As he followed the literature he found more misinterpretations. Branner’s own notes were confusing, and some photographs from 1906 were later published reversed. Wrucke demonstrated this in one example by showing that a man’s suit had the buttons on the wrong side.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Once the photos were put in their correct places, the fault trace was easy to find, even on today’s landscape, with the lidar images. (\u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/15/geological-outings-around-the-bay-los-trancos-open-space/\">I showed you another example in nearby Los Trancos last year.\u003c/a>) It must have been especially satisfying for Wrucke to unveil Coal Mine Ridge, which is thickly carpeted with brush and poison oak, and see the 1906 trace running clearly up the hill.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6802\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 500px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpinelidar.gif\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6802\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6802\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/alpinelidar.gif\" alt=\"Lidar image\" width=\"500\" height=\"423\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The hummocky landslide surface shows that the fault trace crossing it (features marked “B”) must be very recent.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s unfortunate that it took a century to make things right. But lidar surveys were used to great effect after the 2010 Baja California earthquake, and the tool will be ready when the San Andreas lets loose again.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/6797/lost-and-found-the-1906-earthquake-rupture-in-portola-valley","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_218","science_546","science_550"],"featImg":"science_6801","label":"science"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? 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You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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