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And Russia has more Arctic land than any other nation. But, since Russia invaded Ukraine, it’s been increasingly difficult for climate scientists in Russia to collaborate or share data about conditions in the country’s vast frozen areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That includes basic measurements of temperature and snowfall in the Russian Arctic, as well as more sophisticated details about greenhouse gas emissions and what’s happening to plants and animals in the region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Excluding such data from climate models makes them less accurate, and the problem will get worse over time, a new study warns. “By neglecting Russian sites, we decrease our chances to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change,” says Efrén López-Blanco of Aarhus University in Denmark, who is one of the authors of \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01903-1\">the paper\u003c/a> published in the journal \u003cem>Nature Climate Change.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In order to build climate models that can accurately predict what will happen to the Arctic in the future, scientists need measurements from across the Arctic. If the available data is concentrated in a few places, like Alaska, Canada and Scandinavia, and excludes Russia’s vast Arctic expanses, then the models will be increasingly inaccurate, the study finds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a huge landmass,” says Ken Tape, an ecologist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. “You can’t ignore it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Beaver access has been cut off for Western scientists\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Tape is already seeing the negative effects of the war on his area of research. He studies beavers, which are \u003ca href=\"https://alaskapublic.org/2020/05/10/beaver-numbers-have-exploded-in-northwest-alaska-and-theyre-having-some-unexpected-effects/\">moving into the tundra\u003c/a> and are often unpopular neighbors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s like an intruder,” he says. “The connotations are not positive, you know? Especially if fish is a big resource for you, you’re going to be very skeptical of someone who comes in and dams up fish-bearing streams.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists like Tape are studying where beavers are showing up and trying to understand how far North the population will move, how quickly, and at what scale. Such research can help local communities manage the animals: beavers are notorious for turning streams into bogs, for example, which can affect water quality for humans nearby.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The research is also important because when beavers build dams, they can disturb the frozen ground, releasing trapped greenhouse gasses as it thaws.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A few years ago, Tape helped start the Arctic Beaver Observation Network so scientists all around the Arctic could collaborate and share data. But with the invasion of Ukraine, the dream of Russian collaboration in the project stalled, he says. “We’re having a meeting at the end of February,” he says, “and it’s basically Alaska, Canada and Scandinavia. There’s no one from Russia coming.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On top of that, Western scientists no longer have access to field sites in Russia, he says. Instead, they have to rely on what they can see from space, from satellite images of beaver dams. “You can do a lot from space, but you need to have some boots on the ground confirming what you’re seeing,” Tape says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1991178\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1991178\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">People walk next to a cracked panel apartment building in the eastern Siberian city of Yakutsk in 2018. Climate change is causing permafrost, or permanently frozen ground, to thaw across the Arctic. When the earth thaws, it can destabilize building foundations, roads, pipelines and other infrastructure. \u003ccite>(Mladen Antonov/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>For some, it’s a reminder of Cold War science\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>For Russian climate scientists who started their careers in the Soviet Union, the current situation can feel eerily familiar.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In the past — like, Soviet Union past — the data from this part of the world was also limited,” says Vladimir Romanovsky, a permafrost expert at the University of Alaska Fairbanks who trained in Moscow. In the mid-1970s, young scientists had virtually no contact with Western collaborators, he remembers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But when things opened up in the 1990s, he says, his field exploded. “During that time, lots of data became available from the Russian permafrost regions,” he remembers. International scientists started collaborating with Russian scientists to investigate how permafrost was changing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And the research findings were explosive. Permafrost is the permanently frozen ground found across the Arctic. As it thaws, it creates massive problems\u003ca href=\"https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/permafrost\"> for the infrastructure built on top of it\u003c/a>, causing roads to buckle, building foundations to crack and pipelines to break.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It can also release enormous amounts of planet-warming gasses trapped within the frozen earth. Scientists now warn that virtually all surface permafrost \u003ca href=\"https://www.gi.alaska.edu/news/study-near-surface-permafrost-will-be-nearly-gone-2100\">could be gone from the Arctic\u003c/a> by the end of the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But now the data that is so crucial for permafrost science is drying up, Romanovsky says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the past, he and other Western scientists received temperature and soil measurements from Russian research facilities. “This year, there may not be any data,” he says. “If this will continue into the future, eventually it may have some impact on our understanding [of permafrost changes.]”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Romanovsky is also concerned about young Russian scientists who are important to the future of climate research in the region. “It’s very discouraging,” he says. “Eventually, I believe that we will be able to communicate openly again.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">\u003cem>Copyright 2024 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=Why+the+war+in+Ukraine+is+bad+for+climate+science&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/em>\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The invasion of Ukraine hampered collaboration with Russian climate scientists. That's bad news for our collective ability to understand and prepare for a hotter planet. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1706041231,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":22,"wordCount":959},"headData":{"title":"Why the War in Ukraine Is Bad for Climate Science | KQED","description":"The invasion of Ukraine hampered collaboration with Russian climate scientists. That's bad news for our collective ability to understand and prepare for a hotter planet. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Why the War in Ukraine Is Bad for Climate Science","datePublished":"2024-01-22T20:37:20.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-23T20:20:31.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"NPR","sticky":false,"nprImageCredit":"Mladen Antonov","nprByline":"\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/384067907/rebecca-hersher\">Rebecca Hersher\u003c/a>","nprImageAgency":"AFP via Getty Images","nprStoryId":"1225018573","nprApiLink":"http://api.npr.org/query?id=1225018573&apiKey=MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004","nprHtmlLink":"https://www.npr.org/2024/01/22/1225018573/why-the-war-in-ukraine-is-bad-for-climate-science?ft=nprml&f=1225018573","nprRetrievedStory":"1","nprPubDate":"Mon, 22 Jan 2024 11:13:00 -0500","nprStoryDate":"Mon, 22 Jan 2024 11:13:51 -0500","nprLastModifiedDate":"Mon, 22 Jan 2024 11:13:51 -0500","templateType":"standard","featuredImageType":"standard","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","showOnAuthorArchivePages":"No","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1991177/why-the-war-in-ukraine-is-bad-for-climate-science","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Lack of data about conditions in the Russian Arctic is already hampering climate science and will cause ever-growing gaps in our understanding of how climate change affects the fastest-warming region of the planet, scientists warn.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Arctic is warming up to four times faster than the Earth as a whole. And Russia has more Arctic land than any other nation. But, since Russia invaded Ukraine, it’s been increasingly difficult for climate scientists in Russia to collaborate or share data about conditions in the country’s vast frozen areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That includes basic measurements of temperature and snowfall in the Russian Arctic, as well as more sophisticated details about greenhouse gas emissions and what’s happening to plants and animals in the region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Excluding such data from climate models makes them less accurate, and the problem will get worse over time, a new study warns. “By neglecting Russian sites, we decrease our chances to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change,” says Efrén López-Blanco of Aarhus University in Denmark, who is one of the authors of \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01903-1\">the paper\u003c/a> published in the journal \u003cem>Nature Climate Change.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In order to build climate models that can accurately predict what will happen to the Arctic in the future, scientists need measurements from across the Arctic. If the available data is concentrated in a few places, like Alaska, Canada and Scandinavia, and excludes Russia’s vast Arctic expanses, then the models will be increasingly inaccurate, the study finds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s a huge landmass,” says Ken Tape, an ecologist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. “You can’t ignore it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Beaver access has been cut off for Western scientists\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Tape is already seeing the negative effects of the war on his area of research. He studies beavers, which are \u003ca href=\"https://alaskapublic.org/2020/05/10/beaver-numbers-have-exploded-in-northwest-alaska-and-theyre-having-some-unexpected-effects/\">moving into the tundra\u003c/a> and are often unpopular neighbors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s like an intruder,” he says. “The connotations are not positive, you know? Especially if fish is a big resource for you, you’re going to be very skeptical of someone who comes in and dams up fish-bearing streams.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists like Tape are studying where beavers are showing up and trying to understand how far North the population will move, how quickly, and at what scale. Such research can help local communities manage the animals: beavers are notorious for turning streams into bogs, for example, which can affect water quality for humans nearby.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The research is also important because when beavers build dams, they can disturb the frozen ground, releasing trapped greenhouse gasses as it thaws.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A few years ago, Tape helped start the Arctic Beaver Observation Network so scientists all around the Arctic could collaborate and share data. But with the invasion of Ukraine, the dream of Russian collaboration in the project stalled, he says. “We’re having a meeting at the end of February,” he says, “and it’s basically Alaska, Canada and Scandinavia. There’s no one from Russia coming.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On top of that, Western scientists no longer have access to field sites in Russia, he says. Instead, they have to rely on what they can see from space, from satellite images of beaver dams. “You can do a lot from space, but you need to have some boots on the ground confirming what you’re seeing,” Tape says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1991178\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1991178\" src=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2024/01/gettyimages-1068523518-e0b1af529618017fb8f79cfb212643e56bb07337-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">People walk next to a cracked panel apartment building in the eastern Siberian city of Yakutsk in 2018. Climate change is causing permafrost, or permanently frozen ground, to thaw across the Arctic. When the earth thaws, it can destabilize building foundations, roads, pipelines and other infrastructure. \u003ccite>(Mladen Antonov/AFP via Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>For some, it’s a reminder of Cold War science\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>For Russian climate scientists who started their careers in the Soviet Union, the current situation can feel eerily familiar.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In the past — like, Soviet Union past — the data from this part of the world was also limited,” says Vladimir Romanovsky, a permafrost expert at the University of Alaska Fairbanks who trained in Moscow. In the mid-1970s, young scientists had virtually no contact with Western collaborators, he remembers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But when things opened up in the 1990s, he says, his field exploded. “During that time, lots of data became available from the Russian permafrost regions,” he remembers. International scientists started collaborating with Russian scientists to investigate how permafrost was changing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And the research findings were explosive. Permafrost is the permanently frozen ground found across the Arctic. As it thaws, it creates massive problems\u003ca href=\"https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/permafrost\"> for the infrastructure built on top of it\u003c/a>, causing roads to buckle, building foundations to crack and pipelines to break.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It can also release enormous amounts of planet-warming gasses trapped within the frozen earth. Scientists now warn that virtually all surface permafrost \u003ca href=\"https://www.gi.alaska.edu/news/study-near-surface-permafrost-will-be-nearly-gone-2100\">could be gone from the Arctic\u003c/a> by the end of the century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But now the data that is so crucial for permafrost science is drying up, Romanovsky says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the past, he and other Western scientists received temperature and soil measurements from Russian research facilities. “This year, there may not be any data,” he says. “If this will continue into the future, eventually it may have some impact on our understanding [of permafrost changes.]”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Romanovsky is also concerned about young Russian scientists who are important to the future of climate research in the region. “It’s very discouraging,” he says. “Eventually, I believe that we will be able to communicate openly again.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">\u003cem>Copyright 2024 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=Why+the+war+in+Ukraine+is+bad+for+climate+science&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/em>\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1991177/why-the-war-in-ukraine-is-bad-for-climate-science","authors":["byline_science_1991177"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_182","science_194","science_192","science_556"],"featImg":"science_1991179","label":"source_science_1991177"},"science_1985830":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1985830","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1985830","score":null,"sort":[1702567849000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"18-california-children-are-suing-the-epa-over-climate-change","title":"18 California Children Are Suing the EPA Over Climate Change","publishDate":1702567849,"format":"standard","headTitle":"18 California Children Are Suing the EPA Over Climate Change | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Eighteen California children are suing the Environmental Protection Agency, claiming it violated their constitutional rights by failing to protect them from the effects of climate change. The suit is the latest in a series of climate-related cases filed on behalf of children.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to the federal lawsuit — \u003ca href=\"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/655a2d016eb74e41dc292ed5/t/6576829a565cc6227e10b682/1702265500795/Doc+1+Complaint+2023.12.10.pdf\">Genesis B. v. United States Environmental Protection Agency\u003c/a> — the lead plaintiff, “Genesis B.” is a 17-year-old Long Beach, California resident whose parents can’t afford air conditioning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the number of extreme heat days increases, the lawsuit said Genesis isn’t able to stay cool in her home during the day. “On many days, Genesis must wait until the evening to do schoolwork when temperatures cool down enough for her to be able to focus,” according to the lawsuit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other plaintiffs range in age from eight to 17 and are identified by their first names and last initials because they are minors. For each plaintiff, the lawsuit mentions ways that climate change is affecting their lives now, such as wildfires and flooding that have damaged landscapes near them and forced them to evacuate their homes or cancel activities.[aside label=\"more on climate change\" tag=\"climate-change\"]“Time is slipping away, and the impact of the climate crisis is already hitting us directly. We are running from wildfires, being displaced by floods, panicking in hot classrooms during another heat wave,” 15-year-old plaintiff Noah said in a \u003ca href=\"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/655a2d016eb74e41dc292ed5/t/657700495cff6c371800d3a1/1702297673995/2023.12.11+EPA+Case+Filed+press+release.pdf\">statement\u003c/a> provided by the nonprofit, public interest law firm Our Children’s Trust, which filed the suit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lawsuit comes on the heels of a legal victory in another suit that Our Children’s Trust filed on behalf of children. This summer, a state judge in Montana handed Our Children’s Trust a \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/08/23/1194710955/montana-youth-climate-ruling-could-set-precedent-for-future-climate-litigation\">historic win\u003c/a>. The judge found the state violated 16 young plaintiffs’ “right to a clean and healthful environment.” That case is being appealed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The California federal case claims the EPA violated the children’s constitutional rights by allowing carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels to warm the climate. It notes the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2009/12/epa_to_label_greenhouse_gases.html\">agency’s 2009 finding\u003c/a> that carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, is a public health threat, and children are the most vulnerable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is one federal agency explicitly tasked with keeping the air clean and controlling pollution to protect the health of every child and the welfare of a nation—the EPA,” said Julia Olson, chief legal counsel for Our Children’s Trust, in the statement. “The agency has done the opposite when it comes to climate pollution, and it’s time the EPA is held accountable by our courts for violating the U.S. Constitution.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An EPA spokesperson said because of the pending litigation, the agency could not comment on the lawsuit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lawsuit does not specifically seek financial compensation, other than plaintiff costs and attorneys’ fees. Instead, it asks for various declarations about the environmental rights of children and the EPA’s responsibility to protect them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Our Children’s Trust filed a different federal lawsuit in 2015 — \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2020/01/17/797416530/kids-climate-case-reluctantly-dismissed-by-appeals-court\">Juliana v. United States\u003c/a> — against the entire government. It was dismissed in 2020 but \u003ca href=\"https://e360.yale.edu/digest/juliana-youth-climate-lawsuit-trial\">revived by an Oregon judge\u003c/a> this summer. The group \u003ca href=\"https://www.ourchildrenstrust.org/pending-state-actions\">also has legal actions pending\u003c/a> in Florida, Hawaii, Utah and Virginia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=18+California+children+are+suing+the+EPA+over+climate+change&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The suit, which claims that the effects of climate change — including excessive heat, wildfires, and flooding — are adversely impacting children's lives today, is the latest in a series of climate-related cases filed on behalf of minors.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845798,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":12,"wordCount":578},"headData":{"title":"18 California Children Are Suing the EPA Over Climate Change | KQED","description":"The suit, which claims that the effects of climate change — including excessive heat, wildfires, and flooding — are adversely impacting children's lives today, is the latest in a series of climate-related cases filed on behalf of minors.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"18 California Children Are Suing the EPA Over Climate Change","datePublished":"2023-12-14T15:30:49.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:16:38.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"NPR","sourceUrl":"https://www.npr.org","sticky":false,"nprImageCredit":"William Campbell","nprByline":"Jeff Brady","nprImageAgency":"Getty Images","nprStoryId":"1218499186","nprApiLink":"http://api.npr.org/query?id=1218499186&apiKey=MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004","nprHtmlLink":"https://www.npr.org/2023/12/11/1218499186/18-california-children-are-suing-the-epa-over-climate-change?ft=nprml&f=1218499186","nprRetrievedStory":"1","nprPubDate":"Mon, 11 Dec 2023 14:43:00 -0500","nprStoryDate":"Mon, 11 Dec 2023 14:43:00 -0500","nprLastModifiedDate":"Mon, 11 Dec 2023 14:43:00 -0500","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","showOnAuthorArchivePages":"No","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1985830/18-california-children-are-suing-the-epa-over-climate-change","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Eighteen California children are suing the Environmental Protection Agency, claiming it violated their constitutional rights by failing to protect them from the effects of climate change. The suit is the latest in a series of climate-related cases filed on behalf of children.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to the federal lawsuit — \u003ca href=\"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/655a2d016eb74e41dc292ed5/t/6576829a565cc6227e10b682/1702265500795/Doc+1+Complaint+2023.12.10.pdf\">Genesis B. v. United States Environmental Protection Agency\u003c/a> — the lead plaintiff, “Genesis B.” is a 17-year-old Long Beach, California resident whose parents can’t afford air conditioning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the number of extreme heat days increases, the lawsuit said Genesis isn’t able to stay cool in her home during the day. “On many days, Genesis must wait until the evening to do schoolwork when temperatures cool down enough for her to be able to focus,” according to the lawsuit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other plaintiffs range in age from eight to 17 and are identified by their first names and last initials because they are minors. For each plaintiff, the lawsuit mentions ways that climate change is affecting their lives now, such as wildfires and flooding that have damaged landscapes near them and forced them to evacuate their homes or cancel activities.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"label":"more on climate change ","tag":"climate-change"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“Time is slipping away, and the impact of the climate crisis is already hitting us directly. We are running from wildfires, being displaced by floods, panicking in hot classrooms during another heat wave,” 15-year-old plaintiff Noah said in a \u003ca href=\"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/655a2d016eb74e41dc292ed5/t/657700495cff6c371800d3a1/1702297673995/2023.12.11+EPA+Case+Filed+press+release.pdf\">statement\u003c/a> provided by the nonprofit, public interest law firm Our Children’s Trust, which filed the suit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lawsuit comes on the heels of a legal victory in another suit that Our Children’s Trust filed on behalf of children. This summer, a state judge in Montana handed Our Children’s Trust a \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/08/23/1194710955/montana-youth-climate-ruling-could-set-precedent-for-future-climate-litigation\">historic win\u003c/a>. The judge found the state violated 16 young plaintiffs’ “right to a clean and healthful environment.” That case is being appealed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The California federal case claims the EPA violated the children’s constitutional rights by allowing carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels to warm the climate. It notes the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2009/12/epa_to_label_greenhouse_gases.html\">agency’s 2009 finding\u003c/a> that carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, is a public health threat, and children are the most vulnerable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There is one federal agency explicitly tasked with keeping the air clean and controlling pollution to protect the health of every child and the welfare of a nation—the EPA,” said Julia Olson, chief legal counsel for Our Children’s Trust, in the statement. “The agency has done the opposite when it comes to climate pollution, and it’s time the EPA is held accountable by our courts for violating the U.S. Constitution.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An EPA spokesperson said because of the pending litigation, the agency could not comment on the lawsuit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The lawsuit does not specifically seek financial compensation, other than plaintiff costs and attorneys’ fees. Instead, it asks for various declarations about the environmental rights of children and the EPA’s responsibility to protect them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Our Children’s Trust filed a different federal lawsuit in 2015 — \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2020/01/17/797416530/kids-climate-case-reluctantly-dismissed-by-appeals-court\">Juliana v. United States\u003c/a> — against the entire government. It was dismissed in 2020 but \u003ca href=\"https://e360.yale.edu/digest/juliana-youth-climate-lawsuit-trial\">revived by an Oregon judge\u003c/a> this summer. The group \u003ca href=\"https://www.ourchildrenstrust.org/pending-state-actions\">also has legal actions pending\u003c/a> in Florida, Hawaii, Utah and Virginia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=18+California+children+are+suing+the+EPA+over+climate+change&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1985830/18-california-children-are-suing-the-epa-over-climate-change","authors":["byline_science_1985830"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_194","science_1754","science_2209","science_2080","science_4417","science_556","science_309"],"featImg":"science_1985848","label":"source_science_1985830"},"science_1985663":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1985663","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1985663","score":null,"sort":[1701547223000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"epa-aims-to-combat-climate-change-with-new-methane-reduction-rules","title":"EPA Aims to Combat Climate Change With New Methane Reduction Rules","publishDate":1701547223,"format":"standard","headTitle":"EPA Aims to Combat Climate Change With New Methane Reduction Rules | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>The oil industry has long leaked methane into the atmosphere, contributing to the greenhouse gasses that are warming the planet. Now, new federal rules aim to dramatically reduce that pollution in the next 15 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Biden administration has issued strict new regulations to reduce methane from oil and gas industry operations. The announcement from the Environmental Protection Agency comes as world leaders are in Dubai for the annual United Nations climate meeting, where \u003ca href=\"https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/events/methane-cop28\">controlling methane is a big focus\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Methane is the main ingredient in natural gas. It stays in the atmosphere for a shorter time than carbon dioxide — the most abundant greenhouse gas from humans. But methane is a \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/gmi/importance-methane\">much more potent climate-warming gas\u003c/a>. Research shows that even small amounts of methane escaping into the atmosphere can \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/07/14/1187648553/natural-gas-can-rival-coals-climate-warming-potential-when-leaks-are-counted\">equal the climate-warming effects of burning coal\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>EPA Administrator Michael Regan, in a written statement, called the new final rule an “historic action to reduce climate pollution, protecting people and the planet.” He says the regulation is part of President Biden’s ambitious climate change efforts to zero out the country’s greenhouse gasses by 2050 and meet goals in the landmark Paris climate agreement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA estimates the new rule will reduce methane emissions nearly 80% below what they were projected to be, and that will “prevent an estimated 58 million tons of methane emissions from 2024 to 2038.” The agency says that’s the equivalent climate warming power “as all the carbon dioxide emitted by the power sector in 2021.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA says that over that period, the amount of methane that will be captured or leaks avoided would be enough to heat nearly 8 million American homes for a winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agency also estimates the final rule will have net financial benefits of at least $7.3 billion a year from 2024 to 2038. Included in that accounting are the cost of deploying new technologies, climate savings, and health benefits.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Human-caused methane emissions are responsible for about 30% of global warming today, according to the \u003ca href=\"https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/44216/eye_on_methane_summary.pdf?sequence=3\">United Nations Environment Programme\u003c/a>. Most of the methane emitted by humans comes from the energy sector, agriculture and landfills.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new rule includes a “Super Emitter Program” that allows third parties, including environmental groups, to detect and report large methane releases from oil and gas sites. The EPA says studies show these large emitters account for almost half the methane emissions from the oil and gas industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The industry is also required to phase out routine natural gas flaring at new oil wells. Drillers often flare or burn gas from the ground with more valuable oil when there isn’t a pipeline nearby to transport the gas to buyers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new rule also requires “comprehensive monitoring” for methane leaks from well sites and compressor stations. In addition to regularly inspecting sites, the EPA says oil and gas companies must choose “low-cost and innovative methane monitoring technologies” to detect leaks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And the rule creates standards for reducing emissions from equipment, such as controllers, pumps and storage tanks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some states already have methane emissions programs. They will now have two years to submit them to EPA for approval to ensure they comply with the new federal regulation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With other countries also zeroing in on methane as a key climate risk, it’s a signal to operators worldwide that clean-up time is here,” says Fred Krupp, Environmental Defense Fund president, in a statement. EDF is among groups that have established methane monitoring programs, including plans to \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpr.org/2023/08/17/methane-satellite-ball-aerospace-boulder/\">launch a $90 million satellite\u003c/a> to detect methane from oil and gas fields.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even though the new rules are aimed at the oil industry, they’re getting praise from some larger companies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“BP welcomes the finalization of a federal methane rule for new, modified and — for the first time — existing sources,” Orlando Alvarez, chairman and president of BP America, says in a statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But smaller companies have been critical, fearing increased costs that could make some wells unprofitable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The industry’s largest trade group, the American Petroleum Institute, says it’s still reviewing the final rule. Earlier this year, API detailed its concerns in \u003ca href=\"https://www.api.org/~/media/files/news/2023/02/13/api-comments-epa-supplemental-proposed-methane-rule\">comments submitted to the EPA\u003c/a>. Among them, API mentioned potential legal issues with using third-party monitors for the “Super Emitter Program.” The group says the EPA “must establish requirements for monitoring of third-party data” and provide limits on how that information is released to the public.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A senior EPA official says the agency made changes based on such comments. The official says now the EPA will certify groups with methane monitoring expertise, assess reports of releases for accuracy, and then notify a responsible company of the release so they can fix it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s unclear whether that will satisfy API’s concerns, but the comments highlight something many people involved in this rulemaking process assume: the new regulations will likely be challenged in court.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">\u003cem>Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=EPA+aims+to+slash+the+oil+industry%27s+climate-warming+methane+pollution&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/em>\u003c/div>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"New EPA rules require oil and gas companies to slash climate-changing methane from their operations. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1711154013,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":22,"wordCount":861},"headData":{"title":"EPA Aims to Combat Climate Change With New Methane Reduction Rules | KQED","description":"New EPA rules require oil and gas companies to slash climate-changing methane from their operations. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"EPA Aims to Combat Climate Change With New Methane Reduction Rules","datePublished":"2023-12-02T20:00:23.000Z","dateModified":"2024-03-23T00:33:33.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"NPR","sticky":false,"nprImageCredit":"David Goldman","nprByline":"\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/4127076/jeff-brady\">Jeff Brady\u003c/a>","nprImageAgency":"AP","nprStoryId":"1216401828","nprApiLink":"http://api.npr.org/query?id=1216401828&apiKey=MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004","nprHtmlLink":"https://www.npr.org/2023/12/02/1216401828/epa-aims-to-slash-the-oil-industrys-climate-warming-methane-pollution?ft=nprml&f=1216401828","nprRetrievedStory":"1","nprPubDate":"Sat, 02 Dec 2023 07:10:00 -0500","nprStoryDate":"Sat, 02 Dec 2023 03:00:25 -0500","nprLastModifiedDate":"Sat, 02 Dec 2023 07:10:59 -0500","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","showOnAuthorArchivePages":"No","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1985663/epa-aims-to-combat-climate-change-with-new-methane-reduction-rules","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The oil industry has long leaked methane into the atmosphere, contributing to the greenhouse gasses that are warming the planet. Now, new federal rules aim to dramatically reduce that pollution in the next 15 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Biden administration has issued strict new regulations to reduce methane from oil and gas industry operations. The announcement from the Environmental Protection Agency comes as world leaders are in Dubai for the annual United Nations climate meeting, where \u003ca href=\"https://www.globalmethanepledge.org/events/methane-cop28\">controlling methane is a big focus\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Methane is the main ingredient in natural gas. It stays in the atmosphere for a shorter time than carbon dioxide — the most abundant greenhouse gas from humans. But methane is a \u003ca href=\"https://www.epa.gov/gmi/importance-methane\">much more potent climate-warming gas\u003c/a>. Research shows that even small amounts of methane escaping into the atmosphere can \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/07/14/1187648553/natural-gas-can-rival-coals-climate-warming-potential-when-leaks-are-counted\">equal the climate-warming effects of burning coal\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>EPA Administrator Michael Regan, in a written statement, called the new final rule an “historic action to reduce climate pollution, protecting people and the planet.” He says the regulation is part of President Biden’s ambitious climate change efforts to zero out the country’s greenhouse gasses by 2050 and meet goals in the landmark Paris climate agreement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA estimates the new rule will reduce methane emissions nearly 80% below what they were projected to be, and that will “prevent an estimated 58 million tons of methane emissions from 2024 to 2038.” The agency says that’s the equivalent climate warming power “as all the carbon dioxide emitted by the power sector in 2021.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA says that over that period, the amount of methane that will be captured or leaks avoided would be enough to heat nearly 8 million American homes for a winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The agency also estimates the final rule will have net financial benefits of at least $7.3 billion a year from 2024 to 2038. Included in that accounting are the cost of deploying new technologies, climate savings, and health benefits.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Human-caused methane emissions are responsible for about 30% of global warming today, according to the \u003ca href=\"https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/44216/eye_on_methane_summary.pdf?sequence=3\">United Nations Environment Programme\u003c/a>. Most of the methane emitted by humans comes from the energy sector, agriculture and landfills.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new rule includes a “Super Emitter Program” that allows third parties, including environmental groups, to detect and report large methane releases from oil and gas sites. The EPA says studies show these large emitters account for almost half the methane emissions from the oil and gas industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The industry is also required to phase out routine natural gas flaring at new oil wells. Drillers often flare or burn gas from the ground with more valuable oil when there isn’t a pipeline nearby to transport the gas to buyers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new rule also requires “comprehensive monitoring” for methane leaks from well sites and compressor stations. In addition to regularly inspecting sites, the EPA says oil and gas companies must choose “low-cost and innovative methane monitoring technologies” to detect leaks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And the rule creates standards for reducing emissions from equipment, such as controllers, pumps and storage tanks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some states already have methane emissions programs. They will now have two years to submit them to EPA for approval to ensure they comply with the new federal regulation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“With other countries also zeroing in on methane as a key climate risk, it’s a signal to operators worldwide that clean-up time is here,” says Fred Krupp, Environmental Defense Fund president, in a statement. EDF is among groups that have established methane monitoring programs, including plans to \u003ca href=\"https://www.cpr.org/2023/08/17/methane-satellite-ball-aerospace-boulder/\">launch a $90 million satellite\u003c/a> to detect methane from oil and gas fields.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even though the new rules are aimed at the oil industry, they’re getting praise from some larger companies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“BP welcomes the finalization of a federal methane rule for new, modified and — for the first time — existing sources,” Orlando Alvarez, chairman and president of BP America, says in a statement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But smaller companies have been critical, fearing increased costs that could make some wells unprofitable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The industry’s largest trade group, the American Petroleum Institute, says it’s still reviewing the final rule. Earlier this year, API detailed its concerns in \u003ca href=\"https://www.api.org/~/media/files/news/2023/02/13/api-comments-epa-supplemental-proposed-methane-rule\">comments submitted to the EPA\u003c/a>. Among them, API mentioned potential legal issues with using third-party monitors for the “Super Emitter Program.” The group says the EPA “must establish requirements for monitoring of third-party data” and provide limits on how that information is released to the public.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A senior EPA official says the agency made changes based on such comments. The official says now the EPA will certify groups with methane monitoring expertise, assess reports of releases for accuracy, and then notify a responsible company of the release so they can fix it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s unclear whether that will satisfy API’s concerns, but the comments highlight something many people involved in this rulemaking process assume: the new regulations will likely be challenged in court.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">\u003cem>Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=EPA+aims+to+slash+the+oil+industry%27s+climate-warming+methane+pollution&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/em>\u003c/div>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1985663/epa-aims-to-combat-climate-change-with-new-methane-reduction-rules","authors":["byline_science_1985663"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_194","science_2080","science_556","science_452","science_784","science_952"],"featImg":"science_1985664","label":"source_science_1985663"},"science_1985560":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1985560","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1985560","score":null,"sort":[1701115474000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"faq-annual-climate-negotiations-are-about-to-start-do-they-matter","title":"Annual Climate Negotiations Are About To Start. Do They Matter?","publishDate":1701115474,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Annual Climate Negotiations Are About To Start. Do They Matter? | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>A major annual international climate meeting kicks off later this week in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>World leaders are meeting from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12 to discuss the effects of climate change, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the increasingly pressing question of who will pay for the costs of a hotter planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Attendance at the annual negotiations \u003ca href=\"https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/statistics-on-non-party-stakeholders/statistics-on-participation-and-in-session-engagement\">has ballooned\u003c/a> and hit an \u003ca href=\"https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries#:~:text=COP27%20brought%20together%20more%20than,how%20it%20impacts%20their%20lives.\">estimated 45,000 people\u003c/a> last year. Thousands of climate scientists, mayors, activists, corporate executives, and representatives of major oil companies will also fly to the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/01/12/1148810078/the-uae-names-the-head-of-its-main-state-oil-company-to-lead-cop28\">petroleum-dependent host country\u003c/a> to attend hundreds of side events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The meeting comes at the close of the hottest year ever recorded on Earth. Extreme weather is killing people around the world. And while it’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/30/1208241783/its-unlikely-but-not-impossible-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5-celsius-study-fin\">still possible\u003c/a> for humans to avoid catastrophic climate change effects — such as mass extinctions and runaway sea level rise by the end of this century — it is only possible if greenhouse gas pollution falls dramatically and immediately, scientists warn.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, a fight is brewing over whether the countries most responsible for causing climate change will \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">follow through on promises\u003c/a> to help the most vulnerable countries \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2021/11/08/1053669015/who-pays-for-climate-change\">foot the bill\u003c/a> for adapting to a hotter world.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s what you need to know about what’s at stake and what to expect.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Why is this meeting happening and what is it supposed to achieve?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>This meeting happens every year and is arranged by the branch of the United Nations that handles global negotiations about climate change. In U.N.-speak, the climate meeting is called the Conference of the Parties, or COP. This is the 28th Conference of the Parties, so it’s called COP28.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the end of the 2015 COP meeting, world leaders signed the landmark Paris Climate Agreement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Paris Agreement requires virtually every country on Earth to pledge how much they’ll cut planet-warming pollution and update those plans every few years. The goal is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to temperatures in the late 1800s, and ideally no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, world leaders are required to review humanity’s collective progress toward that goal. And the situation is not good.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A U.N. \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/11/20/1213207121/this-is-how-far-behind-the-world-is-on-controlling-planet-warming-pollution\">analysis released this month\u003c/a> found that global greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, and the planet is on track for at least 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. And while it’s still possible to stay below 2 degrees of warming — and every tenth of a degree of warming the world avoids will save lives — scientists warn that the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/30/1208241783/its-unlikely-but-not-impossible-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5-celsius-study-fin\">1.5-degree target is slipping away\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>These meetings have been happening for 30 years, and it feels like climate change is only getting worse. Do they really matter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Last year’s COP27 meeting in Egypt ended with a watered-down agreement that left out language calling for a phaseout of all fossil fuels — the biggest driver of global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The summits have become a circus, “with the petrostates as the ringmasters” and everyone else as “the clowns,” Sandrine Dixson-Declève \u003ca href=\"https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/decleve-cop27/\">wrote last year\u003c/a>, as co-president of The Club of Rome, a nonprofit in Switzerland that works on climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem, Dixson-Declève told NPR, is combining international negotiations with a trade show. The number of lobbyists who attend the events has soared, she says, and civil society groups struggle to afford the cost of reserving pavilion space in the COP conference hall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Some are actually given easier access than others because they can pay for it. And that means that those that have pavilions might be able to invite certain governments to come and have a conversation,” Dixson-Declève says. “It may not seem like direct lobbying, but it is potentially indirect lobbying, depending on where the conversation goes. So I think it’s incredibly important that we take into consideration this aspect, which has created a very unfair playing field.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet the COP meetings remain crucial events for activists and poor countries hit hardest by climate-fueled disasters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One of the big values of the U.N. process, actually, is that everybody’s at the table,” says David Waskow, director of the International Climate Initiative at the World Resources Institute.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The meetings are not “a panacea,” Waskow adds, but they “give us a sense of the direction we need to travel in and also can be a catalyst.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rishikesh Ram Bhandary, assistant director of the Global Economic Governance Initiative at Boston University, says he understands the public’s frustration with the climate talks. Part of it seems to stem from a mismatch between the U.N.’s multilateral process, which ensures every country has a say but often delivers incremental progress, and the urgency people feel as the impacts of climate change get worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That tension has only grown as the United Arab Emirates, a big oil producer, prepares to host this year’s meeting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given its knowledge of oil and gas, the UAE has a chance to chart a practical but ambitious path to move the world off of fossil fuels, Dixson-Declève says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That would be the perfect scenario,” she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the world seems to be moving in the opposite direction. António Guterres, the U.N. secretary-general, \u003ca href=\"https://productiongap.org/unsg-message-2023/\">said earlier in November\u003c/a> that governments “are literally doubling down on fossil fuel production.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://apps.npr.org/dailygraphics/graphics/co2-cop28-20231120/?initialWidth=953&childId=responsive-embed-co2-cop28-20231120&parentTitle=Everything%20you%20need%20to%20know%20about%20the%20COP28%20climate%20change%20meeting%20%3A%20NPR&parentUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.npr.org%2F2023%2F11%2F27%2F1209676382%2Fcop28-climate-change-conference-faq\" width=\"1000\" height=\"620\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What will be a contentious topic at these talks?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>One of the biggest debates will be the overcompensation that wealthier countries could pay to nations hardest hit by climate change. It’s known as “loss and damage.” Lower-income countries bear the brunt of climate impacts, such as floods, fires and drought that cause billions of dollars in destruction. But they have contributed little to the planetary warming driving those disasters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Countries like the U.S. and those in Europe built their wealth through fossil fuel use and are responsible for most of the heat-trapping emissions in the atmosphere today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For years, developing nations have argued that they’re owed for the damage caused by climate change. Loss and damage funding could be used to prepare for future impacts, like building infrastructure or \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">relocating communities\u003c/a>, as well as compensating them for \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">irreplaceable cultural resources\u003c/a> that have been lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the 2022 climate summit, countries \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/20/1137349916/did-the-world-make-progress-on-climate-change-heres-what-was-decided-at-global-t\">made a historic agreement\u003c/a> to create a fund, especially for that purpose. Since then, negotiations have been bumpy. Countries have argued about which nations should pay into the fund, which should be eligible to receive funding, and where the fund is housed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now, \u003ca href=\"https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-cop28-loss-damage-fund-abu-dhabi-bd4969f1b23254a7311d1ad4f4289d9b\">the plan is\u003c/a> for the World Bank to house the “loss and damage” fund temporarily. But global leaders would need to sign off on that plan at the COP28 talks. And some developing countries are concerned about the plan because it only urges, not requires, richer countries to contribute funding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1985562\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1985562\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Rescuers remove mud and debris as they search for people feared trapped after a landslide near a temple on the outskirts of Shimla, Himachal Pradesh state, Aug. 14, 2023.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rescuers search for people after a landslide in India in August that was caused by torrential rains. Climate-driven disasters are particularly destructive in places that are not wealthy, and such disasters can set off cycles of destruction, debt and further vulnerability. \u003ccite>(Pradeep Kumar/AP)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Why is money such a big topic at the meeting?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Industrialized countries have pledged $100 billion annually to developing countries to help them adapt to global warming and move away from fossil fuels, but studies suggest much more money is needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The needs for climate finance are much, much higher — more on the order of a trillion dollars per year,” says Laura Kuhl, assistant professor of public policy and international affairs at Northeastern University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A recent assessment from the \u003ca href=\"https://www.oecd.org/environment/growth-accelerated-in-the-climate-finance-provided-and-mobilised-in-2021-but-developed-countries-remain-short.htm\">Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development\u003c/a> says developing countries will need at least $2.4 trillion each year by 2026.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This money — called “climate finance” — can help developing countries switch from planet-heating fossil fuels to clean energy. It also includes money for adapting to climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stacy-ann Robinson, an associate professor of environmental studies at Colby College, says you can’t talk about climate finance without talking about climate justice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Countries in the Global South,” Robinson says, “are saying, ‘Listen, we contributed the least to historical greenhouse gas emissions, but based on a number of factors — environmental and otherwise — we will be impacted the most.'”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s why back in 2009 at the climate conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, industrialized nations announced that \u003cem>they\u003c/em> would take the lead on climate finance. They pledged that by 2020, they would give $100 billion each year toward funding climate adaptation and reducing fossil fuel use in the Global South.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They missed the 2020 goal. And although industrialized nations \u003ca href=\"https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal/__;!!Iwwt!TcowzyOv2FKzOEQ2b2ribe2pUfpddVlARAVq0htz59aiMKvGjGYB7r4G9AdEE25TLeLgv9DyTp0S-yui5pg%24\">may have finally reached the $100 billion\u003c/a> mark in 2022, in Dubai, the discussions will center on how to get closer to the trillion dollar range. This will involve engaging countries, institutions like the World Bank and the IMF, and the private sector.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>How do wars in the Middle East and Ukraine affect climate talks this year?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>They won’t help. Climate diplomacy is already contentious. The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are further complicating, if not worsening, diplomatic relations among some of the world’s largest historic contributors to climate change — namely, the United States, Russia and China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>U.N. Secretary-General Guterres acknowledged the problem in recent remarks, saying that it’s clear that world leaders face “distractions” from addressing climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has trashed its relations with the U.S. and the European Union, which have been providing Ukraine with billions of dollars in aid and weaponry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At last year’s climate talks, representatives from developing countries raised questions about why rich countries like the U.S. have been quick to deliver weapons while slow-walking funds for climate adaptation and clean energy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those concerns are likely to come up again in Dubai, as the U.S. is now delivering billions of dollars more to Israel.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Israel’s continued bombardment of the Gaza Strip is also raising the ire of other countries in the Middle East and Global South, and a broader regional conflict could cause chaos in the world’s energy markets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All of this makes it more difficult for world leaders to maintain consensus and focus on addressing the global issue of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">\u003cem>Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=FAQ%3A+Annual+climate+negotiations+are+about+to+start.+Do+they+matter%3F&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/em>\u003c/div>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"World leaders, climate experts and oil company executives will converge in Dubai later this week to talk about climate change at the United Nations COP28 meeting. Here's what you need to know.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845817,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":true,"iframeSrcs":["https://apps.npr.org/dailygraphics/graphics/co2-cop28-20231120/"],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":46,"wordCount":1810},"headData":{"title":"Annual Climate Negotiations Are About To Start. Do They Matter? | KQED","description":"World leaders, climate experts and oil company executives will converge in Dubai later this week to talk about climate change at the United Nations COP28 meeting. Here's what you need to know.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Annual Climate Negotiations Are About To Start. Do They Matter?","datePublished":"2023-11-27T20:04:34.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:16:57.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"NPR","sticky":false,"nprImageCredit":"Frank Augstein","nprByline":"\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/1134404086/michael-copley\">Michael Copley\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/1119646476/julia-simon\">Julia Simon\u003c/a>, \u003cbr>\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/348779465/nathan-rott\">Nathan Rott\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/803934365/lauren-sommer\">Lauren Sommer\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/384067907/rebecca-hersher\">Rebecca Hersher\u003c/a>","nprImageAgency":"AP","nprStoryId":"1209676382","nprApiLink":"http://api.npr.org/query?id=1209676382&apiKey=MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004","nprHtmlLink":"https://www.npr.org/2023/11/27/1209676382/cop28-climate-change-conference-faq?ft=nprml&f=1209676382","nprRetrievedStory":"1","nprPubDate":"Mon, 27 Nov 2023 08:14:00 -0500","nprStoryDate":"Mon, 27 Nov 2023 05:00:52 -0500","nprLastModifiedDate":"Mon, 27 Nov 2023 08:14:11 -0500","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","showOnAuthorArchivePages":"No","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1985560/faq-annual-climate-negotiations-are-about-to-start-do-they-matter","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>A major annual international climate meeting kicks off later this week in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>World leaders are meeting from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12 to discuss the effects of climate change, efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the increasingly pressing question of who will pay for the costs of a hotter planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Attendance at the annual negotiations \u003ca href=\"https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/statistics-on-non-party-stakeholders/statistics-on-participation-and-in-session-engagement\">has ballooned\u003c/a> and hit an \u003ca href=\"https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries#:~:text=COP27%20brought%20together%20more%20than,how%20it%20impacts%20their%20lives.\">estimated 45,000 people\u003c/a> last year. Thousands of climate scientists, mayors, activists, corporate executives, and representatives of major oil companies will also fly to the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/01/12/1148810078/the-uae-names-the-head-of-its-main-state-oil-company-to-lead-cop28\">petroleum-dependent host country\u003c/a> to attend hundreds of side events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The meeting comes at the close of the hottest year ever recorded on Earth. Extreme weather is killing people around the world. And while it’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/30/1208241783/its-unlikely-but-not-impossible-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5-celsius-study-fin\">still possible\u003c/a> for humans to avoid catastrophic climate change effects — such as mass extinctions and runaway sea level rise by the end of this century — it is only possible if greenhouse gas pollution falls dramatically and immediately, scientists warn.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, a fight is brewing over whether the countries most responsible for causing climate change will \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">follow through on promises\u003c/a> to help the most vulnerable countries \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2021/11/08/1053669015/who-pays-for-climate-change\">foot the bill\u003c/a> for adapting to a hotter world.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s what you need to know about what’s at stake and what to expect.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Why is this meeting happening and what is it supposed to achieve?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>This meeting happens every year and is arranged by the branch of the United Nations that handles global negotiations about climate change. In U.N.-speak, the climate meeting is called the Conference of the Parties, or COP. This is the 28th Conference of the Parties, so it’s called COP28.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the end of the 2015 COP meeting, world leaders signed the landmark Paris Climate Agreement.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Paris Agreement requires virtually every country on Earth to pledge how much they’ll cut planet-warming pollution and update those plans every few years. The goal is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to temperatures in the late 1800s, and ideally no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year, world leaders are required to review humanity’s collective progress toward that goal. And the situation is not good.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A U.N. \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/11/20/1213207121/this-is-how-far-behind-the-world-is-on-controlling-planet-warming-pollution\">analysis released this month\u003c/a> found that global greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, and the planet is on track for at least 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. And while it’s still possible to stay below 2 degrees of warming — and every tenth of a degree of warming the world avoids will save lives — scientists warn that the \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/10/30/1208241783/its-unlikely-but-not-impossible-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5-celsius-study-fin\">1.5-degree target is slipping away\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>These meetings have been happening for 30 years, and it feels like climate change is only getting worse. Do they really matter?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Last year’s COP27 meeting in Egypt ended with a watered-down agreement that left out language calling for a phaseout of all fossil fuels — the biggest driver of global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The summits have become a circus, “with the petrostates as the ringmasters” and everyone else as “the clowns,” Sandrine Dixson-Declève \u003ca href=\"https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/decleve-cop27/\">wrote last year\u003c/a>, as co-president of The Club of Rome, a nonprofit in Switzerland that works on climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem, Dixson-Declève told NPR, is combining international negotiations with a trade show. The number of lobbyists who attend the events has soared, she says, and civil society groups struggle to afford the cost of reserving pavilion space in the COP conference hall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Some are actually given easier access than others because they can pay for it. And that means that those that have pavilions might be able to invite certain governments to come and have a conversation,” Dixson-Declève says. “It may not seem like direct lobbying, but it is potentially indirect lobbying, depending on where the conversation goes. So I think it’s incredibly important that we take into consideration this aspect, which has created a very unfair playing field.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yet the COP meetings remain crucial events for activists and poor countries hit hardest by climate-fueled disasters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“One of the big values of the U.N. process, actually, is that everybody’s at the table,” says David Waskow, director of the International Climate Initiative at the World Resources Institute.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The meetings are not “a panacea,” Waskow adds, but they “give us a sense of the direction we need to travel in and also can be a catalyst.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rishikesh Ram Bhandary, assistant director of the Global Economic Governance Initiative at Boston University, says he understands the public’s frustration with the climate talks. Part of it seems to stem from a mismatch between the U.N.’s multilateral process, which ensures every country has a say but often delivers incremental progress, and the urgency people feel as the impacts of climate change get worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That tension has only grown as the United Arab Emirates, a big oil producer, prepares to host this year’s meeting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given its knowledge of oil and gas, the UAE has a chance to chart a practical but ambitious path to move the world off of fossil fuels, Dixson-Declève says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That would be the perfect scenario,” she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the world seems to be moving in the opposite direction. António Guterres, the U.N. secretary-general, \u003ca href=\"https://productiongap.org/unsg-message-2023/\">said earlier in November\u003c/a> that governments “are literally doubling down on fossil fuel production.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://apps.npr.org/dailygraphics/graphics/co2-cop28-20231120/?initialWidth=953&childId=responsive-embed-co2-cop28-20231120&parentTitle=Everything%20you%20need%20to%20know%20about%20the%20COP28%20climate%20change%20meeting%20%3A%20NPR&parentUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.npr.org%2F2023%2F11%2F27%2F1209676382%2Fcop28-climate-change-conference-faq\" width=\"1000\" height=\"620\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What will be a contentious topic at these talks?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>One of the biggest debates will be the overcompensation that wealthier countries could pay to nations hardest hit by climate change. It’s known as “loss and damage.” Lower-income countries bear the brunt of climate impacts, such as floods, fires and drought that cause billions of dollars in destruction. But they have contributed little to the planetary warming driving those disasters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Countries like the U.S. and those in Europe built their wealth through fossil fuel use and are responsible for most of the heat-trapping emissions in the atmosphere today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For years, developing nations have argued that they’re owed for the damage caused by climate change. Loss and damage funding could be used to prepare for future impacts, like building infrastructure or \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">relocating communities\u003c/a>, as well as compensating them for \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/07/1133270753/climate-change-loss-damage-cop27\">irreplaceable cultural resources\u003c/a> that have been lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the 2022 climate summit, countries \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2022/11/20/1137349916/did-the-world-make-progress-on-climate-change-heres-what-was-decided-at-global-t\">made a historic agreement\u003c/a> to create a fund, especially for that purpose. Since then, negotiations have been bumpy. Countries have argued about which nations should pay into the fund, which should be eligible to receive funding, and where the fund is housed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now, \u003ca href=\"https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-cop28-loss-damage-fund-abu-dhabi-bd4969f1b23254a7311d1ad4f4289d9b\">the plan is\u003c/a> for the World Bank to house the “loss and damage” fund temporarily. But global leaders would need to sign off on that plan at the COP28 talks. And some developing countries are concerned about the plan because it only urges, not requires, richer countries to contribute funding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1985562\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1985562\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Rescuers remove mud and debris as they search for people feared trapped after a landslide near a temple on the outskirts of Shimla, Himachal Pradesh state, Aug. 14, 2023.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/11/ap23302774547951-e588f5868c0b80d8995b55a0d7a8712917cc8953-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rescuers search for people after a landslide in India in August that was caused by torrential rains. Climate-driven disasters are particularly destructive in places that are not wealthy, and such disasters can set off cycles of destruction, debt and further vulnerability. \u003ccite>(Pradeep Kumar/AP)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch2>Why is money such a big topic at the meeting?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Industrialized countries have pledged $100 billion annually to developing countries to help them adapt to global warming and move away from fossil fuels, but studies suggest much more money is needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The needs for climate finance are much, much higher — more on the order of a trillion dollars per year,” says Laura Kuhl, assistant professor of public policy and international affairs at Northeastern University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A recent assessment from the \u003ca href=\"https://www.oecd.org/environment/growth-accelerated-in-the-climate-finance-provided-and-mobilised-in-2021-but-developed-countries-remain-short.htm\">Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development\u003c/a> says developing countries will need at least $2.4 trillion each year by 2026.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This money — called “climate finance” — can help developing countries switch from planet-heating fossil fuels to clean energy. It also includes money for adapting to climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stacy-ann Robinson, an associate professor of environmental studies at Colby College, says you can’t talk about climate finance without talking about climate justice.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Countries in the Global South,” Robinson says, “are saying, ‘Listen, we contributed the least to historical greenhouse gas emissions, but based on a number of factors — environmental and otherwise — we will be impacted the most.'”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s why back in 2009 at the climate conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, industrialized nations announced that \u003cem>they\u003c/em> would take the lead on climate finance. They pledged that by 2020, they would give $100 billion each year toward funding climate adaptation and reducing fossil fuel use in the Global South.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They missed the 2020 goal. And although industrialized nations \u003ca href=\"https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal/__;!!Iwwt!TcowzyOv2FKzOEQ2b2ribe2pUfpddVlARAVq0htz59aiMKvGjGYB7r4G9AdEE25TLeLgv9DyTp0S-yui5pg%24\">may have finally reached the $100 billion\u003c/a> mark in 2022, in Dubai, the discussions will center on how to get closer to the trillion dollar range. This will involve engaging countries, institutions like the World Bank and the IMF, and the private sector.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>How do wars in the Middle East and Ukraine affect climate talks this year?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>They won’t help. Climate diplomacy is already contentious. The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are further complicating, if not worsening, diplomatic relations among some of the world’s largest historic contributors to climate change — namely, the United States, Russia and China.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>U.N. Secretary-General Guterres acknowledged the problem in recent remarks, saying that it’s clear that world leaders face “distractions” from addressing climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has trashed its relations with the U.S. and the European Union, which have been providing Ukraine with billions of dollars in aid and weaponry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At last year’s climate talks, representatives from developing countries raised questions about why rich countries like the U.S. have been quick to deliver weapons while slow-walking funds for climate adaptation and clean energy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those concerns are likely to come up again in Dubai, as the U.S. is now delivering billions of dollars more to Israel.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Israel’s continued bombardment of the Gaza Strip is also raising the ire of other countries in the Middle East and Global South, and a broader regional conflict could cause chaos in the world’s energy markets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All of this makes it more difficult for world leaders to maintain consensus and focus on addressing the global issue of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">\u003cem>Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=FAQ%3A+Annual+climate+negotiations+are+about+to+start.+Do+they+matter%3F&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/em>\u003c/div>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1985560/faq-annual-climate-negotiations-are-about-to-start-do-they-matter","authors":["byline_science_1985560"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_182","science_194","science_572","science_134","science_4417","science_4414","science_556","science_843","science_206","science_201","science_365"],"featImg":"science_1985561","label":"source_science_1985560"},"science_1984927":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1984927","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1984927","score":null,"sort":[1698267636000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"what-does-unavoidable-west-antarctic-ice-shelf-melt-mean-for-the-bay-area","title":"What Does 'Unavoidable' West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt Mean for the Bay Area?","publishDate":1698267636,"format":"standard","headTitle":"What Does ‘Unavoidable’ West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt Mean for the Bay Area? | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>No matter how fast the world reduces carbon emissions, some amount of rapid ice melt from human-caused climate change in West Antarctica is inevitable by the end of the century, which could have enormous ramifications for \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982800/new-map-exposes-critical-gaps-in-bay-areas-readiness-for-sea-level-rise\">coastal regions like San Francisco Bay\u003c/a>, according to \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x#Sec6\">a new study published by researchers at the British Antarctic Survey\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It looks like we’ve lost control of melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,” said study lead author Dr. Kaitlin Naughten \u003ca href=\"https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/increased-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-melting-unavoidable/\">in an online statement. \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists have known that as oceans absorb heat, their temperature rises, and water expands, contributing to rising sea levels. But this study is one of the first to model exactly how ocean warming might cause the Antarctic ice shelves to melt, releasing much more water into the ocean and pushing them up further.\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">[pullquote align='right' citation='Mark Lubell, UC Davis']‘We can’t predict the future perfectly, but this puts more weight into the likelihood of more severe rapid sea-level rise, which means that we need to think more seriously about adaptation in the Bay Area.’[/pullquote]\u003c/span>If the West Antarctic ice sheet melts completely — which would only happen in the direst scenario — oceans around the globe could push up by more than 16 feet. The scientists found that over the 21st century, ocean warming will likely occur at triple the historical rate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gasses now has limited power to prevent ocean warming,” the authors noted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The seas on the West Coast of California have risen by 8 inches since the 1880s.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Previous research has shown this extreme melting would take place over centuries. The new study found melting — in all plausible climate scenarios — is likely to be more severe and will continue this century, even if significant emissions cuts come in the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, the authors note they “cannot quantify the sea-level rise contribution implied by our findings.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Davis professor Mark Lubell said the study is like “a time machine” for the impacts of sea-level rise, even if it doesn’t have granular estimates for exactly how much sea-level rise the Bay Area can expect in the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can’t predict the future perfectly, but this puts more weight into the likelihood of more severe rapid sea-level rise, which means that we need to think more seriously about adaptation in the Bay Area,” said Lubell, who studies governance and sea-level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When Violet Wulf-Saena read the news about the study, she wasn’t surprised. She directs Climate Resilient Communities, advocating for communities facing climate vulnerabilities in flood-prone areas like East Palo Alto.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She said the study shows it’s imperative to finish \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1973805/climate-solutions-in-east-palo-alto\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">existing sea-level rise projects\u003c/a> early, not decades into the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Communities want to see things happening now because even though the science and the data are showing us that sea-level rise will impact us, communities are already impacted,” she said, referring to flooding from recent storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The findings were not shocking for UC Berkeley’s Kristina Hill, who \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979603/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life\">works on California’s updated sea level guidance.\u003c/a> Still, they should be considered a warning of what’s to come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s not just the West Antarctic ice shelves that are melting. Ice in polar regions around the globe is thawing, and Hill said the findings “confirm” the state’s recent guidance of preparing for \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/_media_library/2022/08/SLR-Action-Plan-2022-508.pdf\">1 foot of sea-level rise by 2050 and 3.5 feet of sea-level rise by 2100\u003c/a>. And she added that the Bay Area needs to prepare for potentially even more water, two to three feet over the next three decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not like it’s all going to start in 2050; we’re going to see more flooding along the way from high groundwater and sea level events,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hill is concerned that rising groundwater — shallow surface water pushed up by rising seas — will come in contact with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1983106/map-more-than-5000-toxic-sites-along-sf-bay-are-threatened-by-rising-groundwater-new-study-finds\">buried contaminants around the lip of the bay.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to be increasingly waking up to how rising groundwater could cause health risks for people in urban areas,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mark Stacey, an environmental engineer at UC Berkeley, said while the findings are alarming, people should treat them cautiously.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t think it necessarily implies more or less sea-level rise than was anticipated, but it makes clear that for all but the highest of high emissions scenarios, sea-level rise will proceed pretty similarly through the end of the century,” he said in an email.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For state agencies, like the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981687/the-bay-could-soon-have-its-first-region-wide-sea-level-rise-plan-but-no-one-to-enforce-it\">preparing a regional sea-level rise plan\u003c/a>, the study “amplifies a sense of urgency” behind completing their project as soon as possible, said Dana Brechwald, assistant planning director for climate adaptation with the group.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This study can light a fire under decision makers to maybe do something about it when they would have formerly waited,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The new study puts more weight on rapid sea-level rise for the Bay Area. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845852,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":23,"wordCount":877},"headData":{"title":"What Does 'Unavoidable' West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt Mean for the Bay Area? | KQED","description":"The new study puts more weight on rapid sea-level rise for the Bay Area. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"What Does 'Unavoidable' West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melt Mean for the Bay Area?","datePublished":"2023-10-25T21:00:36.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:17:32.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Sea-Level Rise","sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1984927/what-does-unavoidable-west-antarctic-ice-shelf-melt-mean-for-the-bay-area","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>No matter how fast the world reduces carbon emissions, some amount of rapid ice melt from human-caused climate change in West Antarctica is inevitable by the end of the century, which could have enormous ramifications for \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1982800/new-map-exposes-critical-gaps-in-bay-areas-readiness-for-sea-level-rise\">coastal regions like San Francisco Bay\u003c/a>, according to \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x#Sec6\">a new study published by researchers at the British Antarctic Survey\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It looks like we’ve lost control of melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,” said study lead author Dr. Kaitlin Naughten \u003ca href=\"https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/increased-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-melting-unavoidable/\">in an online statement. \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists have known that as oceans absorb heat, their temperature rises, and water expands, contributing to rising sea levels. But this study is one of the first to model exactly how ocean warming might cause the Antarctic ice shelves to melt, releasing much more water into the ocean and pushing them up further.\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘We can’t predict the future perfectly, but this puts more weight into the likelihood of more severe rapid sea-level rise, which means that we need to think more seriously about adaptation in the Bay Area.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"align":"right","citation":"Mark Lubell, UC Davis","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/span>If the West Antarctic ice sheet melts completely — which would only happen in the direst scenario — oceans around the globe could push up by more than 16 feet. The scientists found that over the 21st century, ocean warming will likely occur at triple the historical rate.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“These results suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gasses now has limited power to prevent ocean warming,” the authors noted.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The seas on the West Coast of California have risen by 8 inches since the 1880s.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Previous research has shown this extreme melting would take place over centuries. The new study found melting — in all plausible climate scenarios — is likely to be more severe and will continue this century, even if significant emissions cuts come in the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, the authors note they “cannot quantify the sea-level rise contribution implied by our findings.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Davis professor Mark Lubell said the study is like “a time machine” for the impacts of sea-level rise, even if it doesn’t have granular estimates for exactly how much sea-level rise the Bay Area can expect in the coming decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We can’t predict the future perfectly, but this puts more weight into the likelihood of more severe rapid sea-level rise, which means that we need to think more seriously about adaptation in the Bay Area,” said Lubell, who studies governance and sea-level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When Violet Wulf-Saena read the news about the study, she wasn’t surprised. She directs Climate Resilient Communities, advocating for communities facing climate vulnerabilities in flood-prone areas like East Palo Alto.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She said the study shows it’s imperative to finish \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1973805/climate-solutions-in-east-palo-alto\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">existing sea-level rise projects\u003c/a> early, not decades into the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Communities want to see things happening now because even though the science and the data are showing us that sea-level rise will impact us, communities are already impacted,” she said, referring to flooding from recent storms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The findings were not shocking for UC Berkeley’s Kristina Hill, who \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1979603/california-overhauls-its-sea-level-rise-plan-as-climate-change-reshapes-coastal-life\">works on California’s updated sea level guidance.\u003c/a> Still, they should be considered a warning of what’s to come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It’s not just the West Antarctic ice shelves that are melting. Ice in polar regions around the globe is thawing, and Hill said the findings “confirm” the state’s recent guidance of preparing for \u003ca href=\"https://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/_media_library/2022/08/SLR-Action-Plan-2022-508.pdf\">1 foot of sea-level rise by 2050 and 3.5 feet of sea-level rise by 2100\u003c/a>. And she added that the Bay Area needs to prepare for potentially even more water, two to three feet over the next three decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not like it’s all going to start in 2050; we’re going to see more flooding along the way from high groundwater and sea level events,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hill is concerned that rising groundwater — shallow surface water pushed up by rising seas — will come in contact with \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1983106/map-more-than-5000-toxic-sites-along-sf-bay-are-threatened-by-rising-groundwater-new-study-finds\">buried contaminants around the lip of the bay.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to be increasingly waking up to how rising groundwater could cause health risks for people in urban areas,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mark Stacey, an environmental engineer at UC Berkeley, said while the findings are alarming, people should treat them cautiously.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I don’t think it necessarily implies more or less sea-level rise than was anticipated, but it makes clear that for all but the highest of high emissions scenarios, sea-level rise will proceed pretty similarly through the end of the century,” he said in an email.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For state agencies, like the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1981687/the-bay-could-soon-have-its-first-region-wide-sea-level-rise-plan-but-no-one-to-enforce-it\">preparing a regional sea-level rise plan\u003c/a>, the study “amplifies a sense of urgency” behind completing their project as soon as possible, said Dana Brechwald, assistant planning director for climate adaptation with the group.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This study can light a fire under decision makers to maybe do something about it when they would have formerly waited,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1984927/what-does-unavoidable-west-antarctic-ice-shelf-melt-mean-for-the-bay-area","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_31","science_32","science_35","science_40","science_2873","science_4450","science_98"],"tags":["science_856","science_182","science_4414","science_556","science_324","science_5183","science_206"],"featImg":"science_1984928","label":"source_science_1984927"},"science_1982875":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1982875","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1982875","score":null,"sort":[1686056411000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"rising-seas-and-underground-perils-san-leandros-fight-for-climate-resilience","title":"How Sea Level Rise Poses a Looming Threat to San Leandro's Underground Infrastructure","publishDate":1686056411,"format":"standard","headTitle":"How Sea Level Rise Poses a Looming Threat to San Leandro’s Underground Infrastructure | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>On an unseasonably hot day on the edge of the San Leandro neighborhood of Mulford Gardens, David O’Donnell uses a heavy metal bar to lift a thick steel cover off a utility hole, exposing an echoey chamber running several hundred feet to the bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Oh, we got a crab in there. It crawled all the way through,” said O’Donnell, a maintenance supervisor for the city.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Below ground, tidal water pushes through the city’s pipes that were built to pump stormwater in the opposite direction.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re fighting the tide and fighting nature,” O’Donnell said. “It’s a bit of an uphill battle. There’s no pump we can install underground to hold the bay back at high tide.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These pipes — and other below-ground infrastructure — which already periodically flood during high tides could become more routinely inundated as the bay continues to rise because of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982915\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982915\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"A view of a drain with water flowing.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Water flows from a drain into the bay at the San Leandro Marina on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>San Leandro recently secured a small grant to develop a comprehensive plan to address the potential impact rising sea levels could have on its roughly 10-mile shoreline and intricate network of underground pipes. The city is also partnering with a team of San Diego State University climate scientists to determine how many of its 90,000 residents may be at risk from flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Having the plan now will put us in a much better place to plan how we can move forward into [the future],” said Hoi-Fei Mok, San Leandro’s sustainability manager, who uses they/them pronouns.[aside label=\"Related Stories\" postID=\"science_1981900,science_1982800,science_1981687\"]“It’s not like people don’t care,” said Mok, who grew up in San Leandro, where the vast majority of residents are people of color. “I’m able to tap into what the community is saying and bring that forward to [the San Leandro City Council] and be that extra amplification of community voices.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A former community organizer, Mok says they are dedicated to making sure this community is able to persevere through smoky skies, heat waves, floods and other increasingly frequent climate-induced conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Ultimately, it is my community that is being impacted,” they added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Leandro’s shoreline makes up less than 3% of the entirety of the lip of San Francisco Bay, but sea level rise will affect this entire region. Mok’s work is feeding into a regional partnership to ready every inch of the shoreline for the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A Bay Area-wide Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan is expected to be completed in mid-2024. The team behind it, led by Dana Brechwald, must get buy-in from more than 40 cities and counties — including San Leandro — to engage environmental-justice communities and develop uniform sea level rise standards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We want to make sure we’re considering impacts on neighbors so that we don’t have this issue of one city behind a tall wall and everybody around it flooding,” said Brechwald.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982918\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982918\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"An Asian American person sits and looks away from the camera.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hoi-Fei Mok, sustainability manager for the city of San Leandro, stands outside San Leandro City Hall on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It’s still unclear how San Leandro’s underground infrastructure will be affected as groundwater rises under the city. \u003ca href=\"https://sfei.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/portfolio/index.html?appid=2ab0c998497f4f7398aa54f176a6fb26%20\">Maps\u003c/a> produced by the San Francisco Estuary Institute and Pathways Climate Institute show that even 1 foot of sea level rise will cause groundwater to emerge in San Leandro.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The city’s stormwater pipes appear to be in good condition, according to Hassan Davani, associate professor at SDSU and a water resources engineer who is leading the team that’s partnering with San Leandro. Davani’s models don’t show major threats in the near term. Still, he said, his work, sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, does not include many other underground infrastructures like sewers, belowground power lines and drinking water pipes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Also, by looking at United States Geological Survey groundwater data, maps of underground infrastructure in the city and middle-of-the-road climate models, Hassan concluded that — as climate change worsens — the current stormwater system will almost certainly “be disrupted” by the end of the century. This could look like the bay pushing further up the drainage system, preventing stormwater from escaping and in turn flooding inland areas of the city.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982880\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982880\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Two young men stand by the side of a street and gaze at a handheld screen.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hassan Davani (right), a San Diego State University professor and water resources engineer, said that as climate change worsens, San Leandro will become increasingly vulnerable, and its current stormwater system will almost certainly ‘be disrupted’ by the end of the century. Kian Bagheri (left) is a doctoral student in Davani’s lab. \u003ccite>(Ezra David Romero/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have flooding further inland, kilometers inland, because the system will be packed with water at the downstream side,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But when taking into account more extreme climate models, Davani said, the disruption to the stormwater system could come around mid-century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pauline Russo Cutter, who served as mayor of San Leandro until earlier this year, said the city has also tested its wastewater infrastructure and has yet to find any red flags.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But she recognizes “it’s only a matter of time” before emerging groundwater becomes an issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If no one’s thinking about it, then these things kind of appear. That’s what can sink a city,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982881\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982881\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"A middle aged white woman with dark brown hair stands beside the shore of San Leandro Bay as she talks toward the camera with sunglasses on.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Former San Leandro Mayor Pauline Russo Cutter says ‘it’s only a matter of time’ before emerging groundwater becomes an issue. \u003ccite>(Ezra David Romero/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In preparing for sea level rise, Mok, the sustainability manager, dreams of a range of solutions — everything from building levees to utilizing marshes to soak up waves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think nature-based solutions have a lot of benefits that I think would be great for us,” Mok said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But, despite the imminent threat that sea level rise poses — with the bay expected to rise by at least a foot in the next three decades — Mok acknowledges that actively preparing for it now can be a hard sell given more immediate concerns like budget issues, staff shortages and ongoing health emergencies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982916\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982916\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"A view of a street leading to a marina sign.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A sign for the San Leandro Marina marks the entrance to the shoreline in the Mulford Gardens neighborhood in San Leandro on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“Sea level rise is tricky for people to wrap their heads around,” said Mok. “I’m hoping this is an opportunity not to get alarmed, but to realize this is something that is coming, not just in San Leandro, but regionally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"San Leandro is fighting an uphill battle as climate change leads to sea level rise. Sustainability manager Hoi-Fei Mok amplifies community voices and dreams of nature-based solutions amid emerging challenges.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845994,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":26,"wordCount":1166},"headData":{"title":"How Sea Level Rise Poses a Looming Threat to San Leandro's Underground Infrastructure | KQED","description":"San Leandro is fighting an uphill battle as climate change leads to sea level rise. Sustainability manager Hoi-Fei Mok amplifies community voices and dreams of nature-based solutions amid emerging challenges.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"How Sea Level Rise Poses a Looming Threat to San Leandro's Underground Infrastructure","datePublished":"2023-06-06T13:00:11.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:19:54.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1982875/rising-seas-and-underground-perils-san-leandros-fight-for-climate-resilience","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>On an unseasonably hot day on the edge of the San Leandro neighborhood of Mulford Gardens, David O’Donnell uses a heavy metal bar to lift a thick steel cover off a utility hole, exposing an echoey chamber running several hundred feet to the bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Oh, we got a crab in there. It crawled all the way through,” said O’Donnell, a maintenance supervisor for the city.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Below ground, tidal water pushes through the city’s pipes that were built to pump stormwater in the opposite direction.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re fighting the tide and fighting nature,” O’Donnell said. “It’s a bit of an uphill battle. There’s no pump we can install underground to hold the bay back at high tide.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These pipes — and other below-ground infrastructure — which already periodically flood during high tides could become more routinely inundated as the bay continues to rise because of human-caused climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982915\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982915\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"A view of a drain with water flowing.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65982_010_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Water flows from a drain into the bay at the San Leandro Marina on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>San Leandro recently secured a small grant to develop a comprehensive plan to address the potential impact rising sea levels could have on its roughly 10-mile shoreline and intricate network of underground pipes. The city is also partnering with a team of San Diego State University climate scientists to determine how many of its 90,000 residents may be at risk from flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Having the plan now will put us in a much better place to plan how we can move forward into [the future],” said Hoi-Fei Mok, San Leandro’s sustainability manager, who uses they/them pronouns.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"label":"Related Stories ","postid":"science_1981900,science_1982800,science_1981687"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“It’s not like people don’t care,” said Mok, who grew up in San Leandro, where the vast majority of residents are people of color. “I’m able to tap into what the community is saying and bring that forward to [the San Leandro City Council] and be that extra amplification of community voices.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A former community organizer, Mok says they are dedicated to making sure this community is able to persevere through smoky skies, heat waves, floods and other increasingly frequent climate-induced conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Ultimately, it is my community that is being impacted,” they added.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Leandro’s shoreline makes up less than 3% of the entirety of the lip of San Francisco Bay, but sea level rise will affect this entire region. Mok’s work is feeding into a regional partnership to ready every inch of the shoreline for the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A Bay Area-wide Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan is expected to be completed in mid-2024. The team behind it, led by Dana Brechwald, must get buy-in from more than 40 cities and counties — including San Leandro — to engage environmental-justice communities and develop uniform sea level rise standards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We want to make sure we’re considering impacts on neighbors so that we don’t have this issue of one city behind a tall wall and everybody around it flooding,” said Brechwald.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982918\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982918\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"An Asian American person sits and looks away from the camera.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65999_004_KQED_HoiFeiMokSanLeandro_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hoi-Fei Mok, sustainability manager for the city of San Leandro, stands outside San Leandro City Hall on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It’s still unclear how San Leandro’s underground infrastructure will be affected as groundwater rises under the city. \u003ca href=\"https://sfei.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/portfolio/index.html?appid=2ab0c998497f4f7398aa54f176a6fb26%20\">Maps\u003c/a> produced by the San Francisco Estuary Institute and Pathways Climate Institute show that even 1 foot of sea level rise will cause groundwater to emerge in San Leandro.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The city’s stormwater pipes appear to be in good condition, according to Hassan Davani, associate professor at SDSU and a water resources engineer who is leading the team that’s partnering with San Leandro. Davani’s models don’t show major threats in the near term. Still, he said, his work, sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, does not include many other underground infrastructures like sewers, belowground power lines and drinking water pipes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Also, by looking at United States Geological Survey groundwater data, maps of underground infrastructure in the city and middle-of-the-road climate models, Hassan concluded that — as climate change worsens — the current stormwater system will almost certainly “be disrupted” by the end of the century. This could look like the bay pushing further up the drainage system, preventing stormwater from escaping and in turn flooding inland areas of the city.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982880\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982880\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Two young men stand by the side of a street and gaze at a handheld screen.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7810-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hassan Davani (right), a San Diego State University professor and water resources engineer, said that as climate change worsens, San Leandro will become increasingly vulnerable, and its current stormwater system will almost certainly ‘be disrupted’ by the end of the century. Kian Bagheri (left) is a doctoral student in Davani’s lab. \u003ccite>(Ezra David Romero/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have flooding further inland, kilometers inland, because the system will be packed with water at the downstream side,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But when taking into account more extreme climate models, Davani said, the disruption to the stormwater system could come around mid-century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Pauline Russo Cutter, who served as mayor of San Leandro until earlier this year, said the city has also tested its wastewater infrastructure and has yet to find any red flags.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But she recognizes “it’s only a matter of time” before emerging groundwater becomes an issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If no one’s thinking about it, then these things kind of appear. That’s what can sink a city,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982881\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 2560px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982881\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"A middle aged white woman with dark brown hair stands beside the shore of San Leandro Bay as she talks toward the camera with sunglasses on.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1920\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/IMG_7758-1920x1440.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Former San Leandro Mayor Pauline Russo Cutter says ‘it’s only a matter of time’ before emerging groundwater becomes an issue. \u003ccite>(Ezra David Romero/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In preparing for sea level rise, Mok, the sustainability manager, dreams of a range of solutions — everything from building levees to utilizing marshes to soak up waves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think nature-based solutions have a lot of benefits that I think would be great for us,” Mok said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But, despite the imminent threat that sea level rise poses — with the bay expected to rise by at least a foot in the next three decades — Mok acknowledges that actively preparing for it now can be a hard sell given more immediate concerns like budget issues, staff shortages and ongoing health emergencies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982916\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 1920px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1982916\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg\" alt=\"A view of a street leading to a marina sign.\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1280\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/06/RS65984_011_KQED_SanLeandroSeaLevelRise_06012023-KQED-1536x1024.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A sign for the San Leandro Marina marks the entrance to the shoreline in the Mulford Gardens neighborhood in San Leandro on June 1, 2023. \u003ccite>(Beth LaBerge/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“Sea level rise is tricky for people to wrap their heads around,” said Mok. “I’m hoping this is an opportunity not to get alarmed, but to realize this is something that is coming, not just in San Leandro, but regionally.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1982875/rising-seas-and-underground-perils-san-leandros-fight-for-climate-resilience","authors":["11746"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_4550","science_40","science_2873","science_4450","science_98"],"tags":["science_194","science_4414","science_556","science_2830","science_4833","science_206"],"featImg":"science_1982914","label":"science"},"science_1979865":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1979865","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1979865","score":null,"sort":[1658926899000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"migratory-birds-return-as-salt-ponds-heal-documenting-a-damaged-world-in-transition","title":"Migratory Birds Return As Salt Ponds Heal: Documenting a Damaged World in Transition","publishDate":1658926899,"format":"image","headTitle":"Migratory Birds Return As Salt Ponds Heal: Documenting a Damaged World in Transition | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Perhaps unsurprisingly, taking photographs from a doorless helicopter was proving more difficult than San Francisco Bay Area photographer joSon had anticipated. Bundled in ski apparel and buckled into his seat, he had done his best to prepare. But the driving winds on this chilly November day quickly numbed his fingers, and more than once his camera smacked against his face as a gust rattled the two-seater aircraft.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Four thousand feet below, the placid salt ponds that lured him to this precarious position draped the southern inland tip of San Francisco Bay like a multicolored quilt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like many Bay Area residents, joSon’s first glimpse of the South Bay’s salt ponds was from the relative comfort of a commercial airliner. Descending into San Francisco International Airport, travelers glimpse an otherworldly landscape of geometric lines and vibrant colors fringing the jagged coastline and muddy blue-green of the Bay — the result of more than 150 years of industrial salt mining. As bay water is pumped through a series of artificial ponds, sun and steady winds cause it to evaporate, leaving each pond saltier than the one before. And as the salinity changes, so do the pigmented microorganisms that thrive in the brine, giving each pond a unique color — from the lime green of Dunaliella algae in low-salinity pools to the rose-petal reds of salt-loving halobacteria in crystallization ponds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979883\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979883\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Levees neatly separate the photo into four squares of red and rose. One is the red of a stop sign, another is a desert rose, a third is a pale orange, and a fourth is a dark rose. \" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Halobacteria produce a red tinge in the South Bay’s saltiest ponds. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The colors and patterns reminded joSon of rice paddies in Vietnam, where he spent part of his childhood and lived as a Buddhist monk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979881\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979881\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Pale lime water marks a salt pond at the top of the page in a curve with a foot shape at the bottom. On the left is another pond in yellow-gold. The lower right shows ??????\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">By 2050, sea levels along the West Coast are expected to rise between 4 and 8 inches. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Captivated, he returned to the South Bay salt ponds again and again, dangling from a helicopter, often in frigid temperatures, over the course of two years to capture their “bizarre beauty.” Over time, he noticed a transformation taking place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Where some of the ponds once were, the locations were now flooded with seawater,” joSon told me. In place of the neon colors of industrial salt ponds, he began noticing “thousands of pearl-like brown and white dots” — flocks of American avocets (Recurvirostra americana) and other shorebirds returning to the South Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although he didn’t yet realize it, joSon was documenting one of the largest wetland restoration projects in United States history.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2003, the multinational corporation Cargill sold more than 15,000 acres of its South Bay salt ponds — most but not all of its holdings — to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the California State Coastal Conservancy, and the California Department of Fish and Game. This sale launched the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979879\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979879\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Two turquoise creeks run from the bottom of the image to the top. On the left, the creek shows branching tributaries. The creeks run parallel to a levee in the center of the photo, through a lush landscape of green and brown restored wetlands.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Two creeks run parallel to a levee through restored South Bay wetlands. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In the decades since, a consortium of more than a dozen nonprofits and state and federal agencies have collaborated to return much of the area to tidal marsh by mid-century. In doing so, they hope to recreate habitat for beleaguered native species, restore the coastline’s natural flood resilience, and improve the overall quality of the South Bay’s coastal ecosystems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But nature has adapted in ways that are complicating their efforts. While the salt ponds have undeniably had negative impacts on many species, including threatened Ridgway’s rails (Rallus obsoletus), they have unintentionally benefited others, like canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) and buffleheads (Bucephala albeola), which overwinter on the shallow pools. More complicating still, the threat of climate change and sea-level rise has been looming ever larger since the project’s inception. Restoring the wetlands requires balancing the needs of plants and animals — including humans — that have long populated the South Bay’s wetlands with those of species that have more recently come to depend upon the human-made salt ponds.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Exploitation of the salty South Bay\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Despite their surreal present-day appearance, salt ponds have a history in the South Bay stretching nearly as far back as the wetlands themselves. Around 3,000 years ago, as the rapid rate of sea-level rise driven by the end of the last Ice Age began to slow, marsh plants took hold along the edges of the bay. The increased vegetation trapped more and more sediment from upstream erosion and tidal deposition, leveling out the transition from water to land and allowing wetlands to rise above the tidal flats.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For millennia afterward, expansive mudflats bordered the South Bay’s shore, exposed twice daily at low tide. Upslope, verdant marshes were a meshwork of hundreds of plant species. Further inland still, bay water, filling natural depressions only during the highest winter tides, evaporated under the late-summer sun, leaving behind large natural salt deposits.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">[aside postID='science_1918301' label='What Are Those Weird, Pink Ponds in San Francisco Bay?\u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">]\u003c/span>Even human harvesting of the ponds dates to prehistoric times. Long before European colonizers arrived, Ohlone people crystallized salt on willow twigs or burned small patches of marsh plants to reap the salty ash left behind. Such harvests were bountiful enough to not only enrich the Ohlone’s own food, but to trade with other tribes throughout the region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Archaeological surveys of Ohlone shellmounds — sacred sites often constructed for burials — give us an idea of the region’s biodiversity during these early stewards’ time. Though mostly composed of shells from bay mussels, clams and oysters mixed with sand and clay, the mounds also contained remnants of other animals, including black-tailed deer, harbor seals, Chinook salmon and even species no longer found in the San Francisco estuary, such as Tule elk and sea otters. In some instances, the interred were not humans, but culturally significant species like the California condor (Gymnogyps californianus), which went extinct in the wild in the 1980s and has since been reintroduced through captive breeding programs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979880\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979880\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Swirls of pale gold, dusty gray and dark gold pour across the image, with dots of crusty islands in white and green running across the upper right corner.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">As the salinity of the South Bay’s salt ponds changes so, too, does the pigmented microorganisms that thrive in the brine, resulting in an array of striking colors. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>After arriving in the late 1700s, the Spanish quickly co-opted Indigenous salt harvesting techniques and enslaved the Ohlone to produce salt for export to Europe. Still, this early salt production remained relatively small in scale, relying on natural salinas — the Spanish term for elongated, landward pools used to harvest salt —the largest of which was the1,200-acre Crystal Salt Pond near the modern-day city of Hayward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979878\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979878\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A curve of green water in the upper left corner abuts a yellow and green border, shaped to the bay's curve. On the other side of the bay, the sharp, 90-degree edges of man-made levees square off against the curving bay. The levees are in stripes of dark orange, indigo blue, and pale tan. Outside the levees is a broken landscape of pale brown with dark cracks running through.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Along the coast of the South Bay, the soft curves of tidal wetlands often butt up against the straight lines of human-made levees. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The South Bay’s first artificial salt ponds were built by a German sailor named John Johnson in 1853. Even as he and others began manipulating the landscape, however, legal restrictions on how much acreage could be bought on credit meant that most salt ponds were small, family-run operations. Many families owned as few as 20 acres, and built pond levees against natural creeks and sloughs, minimizing impacts on the local ecology.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then, in 1868, California removed all acreage restrictions, clearing the way for land barons to purchase and “reclaim” vast swaths of wetlands. Almost immediately, speculators began buying up tracts of Bay Area wetlands with grand visions of industrialization to support the region’s burgeoning cities — themselves built atop meadows and oak woodlands. Within decades, shellmounds turned into shipping hubs, hunting grounds into game lodges, and family-owned ponds into corporate-owned saltworks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the rest of San Francisco Bay was being developed, the South Bay proved surprisingly difficult to break. The salty soil made agriculture untenable, and the shallow, muddy bay bottom stifled developers’ dreams of building the world’s most valuable industrial harbor. Salt harvesting, however, remained profitable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By the 1950s, artificial South Bay salt ponds, at this point almost entirely consolidated under the ownership of a single company called Leslie Salt, covered 25,000 acres and had consumed roughly half of historical tidal marshes. Levees crisscrossed the edges of the bay, segmenting the former marshes into pools of varying salinities and upending the hydrology that had long fed the wetlands. The wetlands that weren’t used for salt production were snatched up by real estate developers, who dredged, filled and built upon them to create communities like Foster City and Redwood Shores.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979888\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979888\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Triangular and rectangular shapes of dry brown land with fractal edges jut from the lower right and upper left corners of the image, into brownish-green water on the left of the image and baby blue water on the top of the image. Large river-like cracks in the dry land open to intrusion from the water.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">More than a century and a half of rampant development has upended the natural hydrology of the Bay Area. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>These projects, combined with a report from the Army Corps of Engineers advocating further filling of the bay, sparked outrage among ecologically conscious locals who wished to preserve the space for public access and wildlife. In 1961, environmentalists formed the Save San Francisco Bay Association (later known as Save the Bay, a key partner on the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The organization successfully advocated a ban on filling the bay to build more housing. In 1974, the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, the nation’s first urban wildlife refuge, was established on land formerly owned by Leslie Salt. A few years later, Leslie sold their remaining holdings to Cargill, which harvested and sold a million tons of salt per year at its peak — slightly more than the weight of the nearby Golden Gate Bridge. Of particular interest to joSon, some of that salt helped produce the napalm that the United States military used to destroy villages and lives during the Vietnam War.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979877\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979877\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A bright orange square intrudes from the lower right corner of the image, bumping up against a levee of white and blue, separating the salt pond from the bay. Landscapes of green and brown spill in fractal shapes from the levee into the a pale turquoise water of the bay.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A surreal patch of San Francisco Bay and artificial salt pond. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>By the time Cargill sold most of its ponds to the state of California, setting the stage for the West Coast’s largest wetlands restoration project, San Francisco Bay’s estuary was in dire straits. In total, somewhere between 80% and 95% of tidal wetlands had been degraded or developed. Removal of groundwater for reclamation had caused the land to actually sink in places — as much as 13 feet in the Santa Clara Valley — leaving the surrounding communities more vulnerable to flooding. Just 1,000 of the original 6,000 miles of channels that fed the bay and deposited the sediment and freshwater necessary for the wetlands to thrive were left intact.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The fabric of interwoven wetland ecosystems that provide natural flood protection and habitat for thousands of species had been unraveled. One of the few, frayed threads remaining were the salt ponds.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Migratory birds return\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>When John Johnson, Leslie Salt, and other fortune-seekers began diking the South Bay for salt ponds, they likely put little thought into what it would mean for the surrounding waterfowl, shorebirds, and other wetland species. But while they were molding the land to their own purposes, nature was adapting to them. And though many species were forced out, others found sanctuary in the salty South Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979889\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979889\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Dark brown and black waters swirl in curving lines through dark grey salt flats dotte,d by white birds.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Even dry salt beds provide important habitat for local and transient species. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>For threatened western snowy plovers (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus), driven by beachgoers from the shorelines they historically populated, the salt ponds granted reprieve. Earthen islands built to dampen the tidal erosion of the levees and dried salt beds proved well-suited for camouflaging the sandy-feathered shorebirds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Likewise, migratory water birds left with few places to roost and forage during their yearly journey along the 9,000-mile Pacific Flyway, a migration corridor stretching from Alaska to Patagonia, found a feast of brine shrimp and other invertebrates in the calm, shallow salt ponds. During one spring migration in the 1980s, researchers tallied more than 200,000 birds in a single pond.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979882\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979882\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Thousands of white dots mark a landscape far below of dark green and brown. These are migratory birds in a single salt pond.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">During one spring migration in the 1980s, researchers tallied more than 200,000 birds in a single salt pond. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“The whole Pacific Flyway comes through here,” says Dave Halsing, a California State Coastal Conservancy scientist and executive project manager for the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (SBSPRP). “For those couple of weeks, this is all there is. The whole Central Valley of California used to be marshy open space. Now it’s all subdivisions and farmland. The stopover has become the bay.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even humans have benefitted to some degree from the salt ponds. Though not nearly as effective as wetlands, the ponds’ levees provide an important buffer between the bay and the surrounding communities, reducing flood risks during heavy rains and high tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">[aside PostID='quest_20389']\u003c/span>Taking all of these unintended consequences into consideration has complicated efforts to restore the South Bay. “If all we had to do was tidal marsh restoration, it would be very simple,” Halsing says. “But it’s not.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In response, the SBSPRP is taking an adaptive approach, essentially treating the whole 50-year-long project as a series of smaller, more manageable endeavors, with the overall goal of restoring at least half of the 15,100 acres to tidal wetlands while maintaining current levels of flood protection and biodiversity. What this means in practice is breaching many of the ponds, preserving others as they are, and enhancing the rest by adding artificial islands for roosting, or altering salinity and water levels to attract certain species. Then the team monitors how those changes impact various species, and adjusts its strategy as needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From a distance, the work looks like a child’s sandbox, with mounds of earth surrounding bright yellow mechanical beasts of all shapes and sizes. Up close, it’s not all that different from any other construction site; half a dozen people or so busying about in hard hats and bright-colored vests, the loud rumble and hydraulic hisses of excavators and bulldozers roaring to life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote size='medium' citation='Donna Ball, San Francisco Estuary Institute']‘We had thought that it would take longer. It’s great to know that we’re having a positive effect.’[/pullquote]Once the groundwork has been laid according to a specific pond’s fate — levees raised or lowered, earth graded to the desired slope, flood channels added or gated — volunteers from Save the Bay work with project biologists for what Donna Ball, a San Francisco Estuary Institute biologist and lead scientist on the SBSPRP, says is one of the most important parts of restoring the ecosystem: replanting vegetation. “Putting plants in is really the habitat piece,” Ball says. “It’s really the meat of trying to think about each species and what they might need.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To date, around 3,000 acres have been restored to tidal wetlands and 700 acres of ponds have been enhanced. Just as the first plants 3,000 years ago provided the foundation for the wetlands — and all the biodiversity they support — these initial plantings are bringing life back to the landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2014, just eight years after breaching the first ponds, Ridgway’s rails were discovered meandering through the marsh. A year later, researchers found salt marsh harvest mice (Reithrodontomys raviventris), an endangered species endemic to the Bay Area, scampering around dense carpets of pickleweed. Even threatened longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) and other local fishes were visiting the surrounding waters in greater numbers than before.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wetlands were returning much faster than anyone had anticipated. “We had thought that it would take longer,” Ball says. “It’s great to know that we’re having a positive effect.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Importantly, even with the number of artificial salt ponds shrinking, improvements to those that remain has actually increased migratory water bird numbers. A study from the U.S. Geological Survey found that between 2002 and 2014, the number of overwintering water birds (both waterfowl and shorebirds) that stopped over in the project area more than doubled. By comparison, in nearby ponds still owned by Cargill for salt production, there was virtually no change in water bird visitation over roughly the same period.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979890\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979890\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A landscape of a white salt crust sits on top of winding dark red waters, wriggling through the salt crust. A dark yellow levee runs from the lower right corner to the upper left corner.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Though many of the South Bay’s salt ponds are being converted to tidal marsh, some will be left intact to support ground-nesting birds. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cdiv class=\"mceTemp\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>And though they haven’t experienced a similar surge, western snowy plover populations have held steady thanks to habitat enhancements, including spreading oyster shells on dried salt ponds for improved camouflage and removing nearby perches used by predatory raptors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The SBSPRP was restoring balance to the South Bay wetlands. But increasingly, the weight of climate change has been threatening to tip the scales back out of whack. To ensure their progress would not be undone, the project leaders had to start planning not only for what the wetlands needed today, but for what they will need in the near future.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>‘A fighting chance’ as bay waters rise\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>As I stand on one of the easternmost levees of Ravenswood, an open space preserve along the shore of the South Bay and one of three main restoration sites for the SBSPRP, it’s easy to grasp the Bay Area’s vulnerability to climate change. Within a 7-mile radius of me, over largely flat terrain, lies Redwood City, Palo Alto, and Menlo Park, with a combined population of nearly 200,000 people. Water from the bay practically laps at my feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to a recent report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, by 2050 sea levels along the West Coast are expected to rise between 4 and 8 inches. At the same time, flooding is expected to become more frequent and severe, with major flood events occurring five times as often.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979891\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979891\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Dark orange salt pond water in the upper left corner meets a pale gold curve of levee. On the other side of the levee are the pale and dark brown wetlands, with dark green riparian areas twisting through.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Both levees and wetlands can protect surrounding communities from sea level rise. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>While climate change had long been considered by the SBSPRP, Ball says the increasingly dire predictions about when the Bay Area could feel its effects — and how severe those impacts could be on people and wildlife — has ramped up the project’s urgency, since healthy wetlands can serve as a natural barrier to flooding and storm surges.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The key word, however, is healthy. Even under ideal conditions, it takes time for restored wetlands to go from sparse and fragile vegetation to lush and robust. And rising seas and severe storms are not ideal circumstances for adolescent wetlands, inundating or robbing the young upstarts of the sediment they need to develop and thrive. The sooner ponds can be breached and restoration started, the more likely it is that the wetlands will be able to mature into a resilient ecosystem. Indeed, a 2019 study from Point Blue Conservation Science, a key partner in the restoration project, showed that if tidal fluctuations weren’t restored to certain parts of the project area by mid-century, they might never accrete enough sediment to survive.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even mature wetlands will eventually succumb to rising seas if rates of erosion and inundation outpace sedimentation. That is, unless they have somewhere to run.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While plants might appear immobile, over long periods of time plant populations can move in response to their environment. For wetland flora such as salt marsh gumplant (Grindelia stricta) or alkali heath (Frankenia salina), both of which love salty soil but prefer drier conditions, this means extending their roots upland as water levels rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979871\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979871\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A landscape of marsh plants in peach, yellow, cream and brown falls from the upper left to the lower right, meeting a narrow triangle of grey-blue water. Long, narrow rivers run down the wetland to the bay.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Given time, marsh plants will move upslope or downslope to more suitable soil. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Historically, there was plenty of space for Bay Area marshes to migrate. Gradually sloped transition zones, or ecotones, hundreds to thousands of feet wide, bordered much of the wetlands, providing a spectrum of overlapping habitats from subtidal to salt marsh to upland meadows. Today, development has encroached on 90% of those areas, reducing them in most places to just a handful of feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To give the South Bay’s nascent wetlands a fighting chance in the face of climate change, the SBSPRP is adding ecotones to many of their tidal marsh restoration sites during the latest phase of construction. Ecotones aren’t possible everywhere, but they have wide-ranging benefits. In addition to restoring wildlife habitat and tempering floods, they can preserve the beauty and accessibility of the wetlands for the region’s human inhabitants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979892\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1979892 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A pale tan creek winds from the bottom of the image to the upper left corner, through lush green wetlands. The vegetation on either side of the creek is yellow-green, dark green and brown.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A small creek winds through restored wetlands in San Francisco’s South Bay. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Rather than protecting the Bay Area from floods by building a levee that would turn San Francisco Bay into a giant bathtub, Ball says, ecotones and other nature-based solutions can help “maintain this habitat — even for people.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>A continual cycle of rebirth\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>On a sunny early afternoon in spring, I visit Eden Landing Ecological Reserve, another of the main project sites for the SBSPRP. At the entrance, a sign briefly nods to the complicated history of the landscape, no doubt preparing visitors who might soon be confused by the presence of levees, flood control gates, and managed ponds in an ecological reserve. Moments into my walk, however, I feel no confusion: This land is undoubtedly wild.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As I head toward the trail loop, marsh wrens (Cistothorus palustris) burst from the grasses lining both sides of the path, chittering in alarm at my presence before sinking back into the tangle. To my right, a raft of American avocets, heads golden-brown, beaks slightly upturned, bob lazily in a shallow pond. To my left, a long-billed curlew (Numenius americanus) slinks through the tidal mudflats foraging for invertebrates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Further down the trail, I find myself face-to-face with the full scope of the restoration project. I pass a half dozen ponds of various water levels and shades of yellow, hinting at their differences in salinity. In most, an artificial island emerges a foot or so above the surface. I walk atop levees for most of the journey, occasionally crossing over a floodgate separating pond from pond, or pond from bay. At one of the outermost points from the trailhead I come upon a dried salt bed, a parched moonscape shattered at the edges and scattered with oyster shells.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And at each turn I find signs of life. Goldfinches, yellowthroats and song sparrows flitting through the tall upland grasses. Ducks, herons and egrets along the channels bordering the tidal marshes. Sandpipers, willets, and stilts on the islands of the managed ponds. I even come across an unattended egg nestled atop a patch of clover on the bank of the levee.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I feel grateful for this space, a stone’s throw from busy metropolises and yet a world away. But strangely, I also find myself feeling thankful for the salt ponds — not only those that have been restored and enhanced, but also their human-made predecessors. Almost all of the restorable land along the shores of the South Bay exists because the industrial salt ponds unintentionally preserved this place. If not for the salt ponds, the area would have almost certainly been developed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The tension between what I know of the land’s tumultuous history and the peace I find there makes me think of joSon. Drawing on his past as a Buddhist monk, the photographer considers the restoration project a form of rebirth, a way of healing the wetlands while reconciling the land’s past traumas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The concept of rebirth defines how we grow and redefine ourselves by simultaneously shedding and embracing our painful past,” he says. For him, the arc of the salt ponds’ history offers a way of thinking about how individuals, cultures and places can “adapt and move on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Near the end of the trail, I come across the relics of a former salt harvesting operation, retained for posterity. Beyond, wooden pilings worn smooth by tides and time emerge from mudflats and murky ponds, supporting ghost structures no longer present. As the wetlands devour the scars of industry, a semblance of what this landscape once was — and has always been to the Ohlone, who continue to hold ceremonies at shellmound sites — is reemerging: a sacred place for plants, animals and people, a wetland in a constant cycle of being reborn.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"In San Francisco's salty South Bay, an ambitious wetlands restoration project is attempting to balance a return to the ecological past with the realities of a warming future.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704846227,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":57,"wordCount":4054},"headData":{"title":"Migratory Birds Return As Salt Ponds Heal: Documenting a Damaged World in Transition | KQED","description":"In San Francisco's salty South Bay, an ambitious wetlands restoration project is attempting to balance a return to the ecological past with the realities of a warming future.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Migratory Birds Return As Salt Ponds Heal: Documenting a Damaged World in Transition","datePublished":"2022-07-27T13:01:39.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:23:47.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"bioGraphic","sourceUrl":"https://www.calacademy.org/biographic","sticky":false,"nprByline":"Skylar Knight","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","showOnAuthorArchivePages":"No","path":"/science/1979865/migratory-birds-return-as-salt-ponds-heal-documenting-a-damaged-world-in-transition","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Perhaps unsurprisingly, taking photographs from a doorless helicopter was proving more difficult than San Francisco Bay Area photographer joSon had anticipated. Bundled in ski apparel and buckled into his seat, he had done his best to prepare. But the driving winds on this chilly November day quickly numbed his fingers, and more than once his camera smacked against his face as a gust rattled the two-seater aircraft.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Four thousand feet below, the placid salt ponds that lured him to this precarious position draped the southern inland tip of San Francisco Bay like a multicolored quilt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like many Bay Area residents, joSon’s first glimpse of the South Bay’s salt ponds was from the relative comfort of a commercial airliner. Descending into San Francisco International Airport, travelers glimpse an otherworldly landscape of geometric lines and vibrant colors fringing the jagged coastline and muddy blue-green of the Bay — the result of more than 150 years of industrial salt mining. As bay water is pumped through a series of artificial ponds, sun and steady winds cause it to evaporate, leaving each pond saltier than the one before. And as the salinity changes, so do the pigmented microorganisms that thrive in the brine, giving each pond a unique color — from the lime green of Dunaliella algae in low-salinity pools to the rose-petal reds of salt-loving halobacteria in crystallization ponds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979883\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979883\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Levees neatly separate the photo into four squares of red and rose. One is the red of a stop sign, another is a desert rose, a third is a pale orange, and a fourth is a dark rose. \" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2474-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Halobacteria produce a red tinge in the South Bay’s saltiest ponds. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The colors and patterns reminded joSon of rice paddies in Vietnam, where he spent part of his childhood and lived as a Buddhist monk.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979881\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979881\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Pale lime water marks a salt pond at the top of the page in a curve with a foot shape at the bottom. On the left is another pond in yellow-gold. The lower right shows ??????\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A2645-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">By 2050, sea levels along the West Coast are expected to rise between 4 and 8 inches. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Captivated, he returned to the South Bay salt ponds again and again, dangling from a helicopter, often in frigid temperatures, over the course of two years to capture their “bizarre beauty.” Over time, he noticed a transformation taking place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Where some of the ponds once were, the locations were now flooded with seawater,” joSon told me. In place of the neon colors of industrial salt ponds, he began noticing “thousands of pearl-like brown and white dots” — flocks of American avocets (Recurvirostra americana) and other shorebirds returning to the South Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although he didn’t yet realize it, joSon was documenting one of the largest wetland restoration projects in United States history.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2003, the multinational corporation Cargill sold more than 15,000 acres of its South Bay salt ponds — most but not all of its holdings — to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the California State Coastal Conservancy, and the California Department of Fish and Game. This sale launched the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979879\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979879\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Two turquoise creeks run from the bottom of the image to the top. On the left, the creek shows branching tributaries. The creeks run parallel to a levee in the center of the photo, through a lush landscape of green and brown restored wetlands.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3866-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Two creeks run parallel to a levee through restored South Bay wetlands. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>In the decades since, a consortium of more than a dozen nonprofits and state and federal agencies have collaborated to return much of the area to tidal marsh by mid-century. In doing so, they hope to recreate habitat for beleaguered native species, restore the coastline’s natural flood resilience, and improve the overall quality of the South Bay’s coastal ecosystems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But nature has adapted in ways that are complicating their efforts. While the salt ponds have undeniably had negative impacts on many species, including threatened Ridgway’s rails (Rallus obsoletus), they have unintentionally benefited others, like canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) and buffleheads (Bucephala albeola), which overwinter on the shallow pools. More complicating still, the threat of climate change and sea-level rise has been looming ever larger since the project’s inception. Restoring the wetlands requires balancing the needs of plants and animals — including humans — that have long populated the South Bay’s wetlands with those of species that have more recently come to depend upon the human-made salt ponds.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Exploitation of the salty South Bay\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Despite their surreal present-day appearance, salt ponds have a history in the South Bay stretching nearly as far back as the wetlands themselves. Around 3,000 years ago, as the rapid rate of sea-level rise driven by the end of the last Ice Age began to slow, marsh plants took hold along the edges of the bay. The increased vegetation trapped more and more sediment from upstream erosion and tidal deposition, leveling out the transition from water to land and allowing wetlands to rise above the tidal flats.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For millennia afterward, expansive mudflats bordered the South Bay’s shore, exposed twice daily at low tide. Upslope, verdant marshes were a meshwork of hundreds of plant species. Further inland still, bay water, filling natural depressions only during the highest winter tides, evaporated under the late-summer sun, leaving behind large natural salt deposits.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"science_1918301","label":"label='What Are Those Weird, Pink Ponds in San Francisco Bay?\u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">"},"numeric":["label='What","Are","Those","Weird,","Pink","Ponds","in","San","Francisco","Bay?\u003c/span>\u003cspan","style=\"font-weight:","400\">"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/span>Even human harvesting of the ponds dates to prehistoric times. Long before European colonizers arrived, Ohlone people crystallized salt on willow twigs or burned small patches of marsh plants to reap the salty ash left behind. Such harvests were bountiful enough to not only enrich the Ohlone’s own food, but to trade with other tribes throughout the region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Archaeological surveys of Ohlone shellmounds — sacred sites often constructed for burials — give us an idea of the region’s biodiversity during these early stewards’ time. Though mostly composed of shells from bay mussels, clams and oysters mixed with sand and clay, the mounds also contained remnants of other animals, including black-tailed deer, harbor seals, Chinook salmon and even species no longer found in the San Francisco estuary, such as Tule elk and sea otters. In some instances, the interred were not humans, but culturally significant species like the California condor (Gymnogyps californianus), which went extinct in the wild in the 1980s and has since been reintroduced through captive breeding programs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979880\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979880\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Swirls of pale gold, dusty gray and dark gold pour across the image, with dots of crusty islands in white and green running across the upper right corner.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3459-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">As the salinity of the South Bay’s salt ponds changes so, too, does the pigmented microorganisms that thrive in the brine, resulting in an array of striking colors. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>After arriving in the late 1700s, the Spanish quickly co-opted Indigenous salt harvesting techniques and enslaved the Ohlone to produce salt for export to Europe. Still, this early salt production remained relatively small in scale, relying on natural salinas — the Spanish term for elongated, landward pools used to harvest salt —the largest of which was the1,200-acre Crystal Salt Pond near the modern-day city of Hayward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979878\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979878\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A curve of green water in the upper left corner abuts a yellow and green border, shaped to the bay's curve. On the other side of the bay, the sharp, 90-degree edges of man-made levees square off against the curving bay. The levees are in stripes of dark orange, indigo blue, and pale tan. Outside the levees is a broken landscape of pale brown with dark cracks running through.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4200-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Along the coast of the South Bay, the soft curves of tidal wetlands often butt up against the straight lines of human-made levees. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The South Bay’s first artificial salt ponds were built by a German sailor named John Johnson in 1853. Even as he and others began manipulating the landscape, however, legal restrictions on how much acreage could be bought on credit meant that most salt ponds were small, family-run operations. Many families owned as few as 20 acres, and built pond levees against natural creeks and sloughs, minimizing impacts on the local ecology.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Then, in 1868, California removed all acreage restrictions, clearing the way for land barons to purchase and “reclaim” vast swaths of wetlands. Almost immediately, speculators began buying up tracts of Bay Area wetlands with grand visions of industrialization to support the region’s burgeoning cities — themselves built atop meadows and oak woodlands. Within decades, shellmounds turned into shipping hubs, hunting grounds into game lodges, and family-owned ponds into corporate-owned saltworks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the rest of San Francisco Bay was being developed, the South Bay proved surprisingly difficult to break. The salty soil made agriculture untenable, and the shallow, muddy bay bottom stifled developers’ dreams of building the world’s most valuable industrial harbor. Salt harvesting, however, remained profitable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By the 1950s, artificial South Bay salt ponds, at this point almost entirely consolidated under the ownership of a single company called Leslie Salt, covered 25,000 acres and had consumed roughly half of historical tidal marshes. Levees crisscrossed the edges of the bay, segmenting the former marshes into pools of varying salinities and upending the hydrology that had long fed the wetlands. The wetlands that weren’t used for salt production were snatched up by real estate developers, who dredged, filled and built upon them to create communities like Foster City and Redwood Shores.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979888\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979888\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Triangular and rectangular shapes of dry brown land with fractal edges jut from the lower right and upper left corners of the image, into brownish-green water on the left of the image and baby blue water on the top of the image. Large river-like cracks in the dry land open to intrusion from the water.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4310-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">More than a century and a half of rampant development has upended the natural hydrology of the Bay Area. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>These projects, combined with a report from the Army Corps of Engineers advocating further filling of the bay, sparked outrage among ecologically conscious locals who wished to preserve the space for public access and wildlife. In 1961, environmentalists formed the Save San Francisco Bay Association (later known as Save the Bay, a key partner on the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The organization successfully advocated a ban on filling the bay to build more housing. In 1974, the Don Edwards San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuge, the nation’s first urban wildlife refuge, was established on land formerly owned by Leslie Salt. A few years later, Leslie sold their remaining holdings to Cargill, which harvested and sold a million tons of salt per year at its peak — slightly more than the weight of the nearby Golden Gate Bridge. Of particular interest to joSon, some of that salt helped produce the napalm that the United States military used to destroy villages and lives during the Vietnam War.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979877\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979877\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A bright orange square intrudes from the lower right corner of the image, bumping up against a levee of white and blue, separating the salt pond from the bay. Landscapes of green and brown spill in fractal shapes from the levee into the a pale turquoise water of the bay.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4239-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A surreal patch of San Francisco Bay and artificial salt pond. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>By the time Cargill sold most of its ponds to the state of California, setting the stage for the West Coast’s largest wetlands restoration project, San Francisco Bay’s estuary was in dire straits. In total, somewhere between 80% and 95% of tidal wetlands had been degraded or developed. Removal of groundwater for reclamation had caused the land to actually sink in places — as much as 13 feet in the Santa Clara Valley — leaving the surrounding communities more vulnerable to flooding. Just 1,000 of the original 6,000 miles of channels that fed the bay and deposited the sediment and freshwater necessary for the wetlands to thrive were left intact.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The fabric of interwoven wetland ecosystems that provide natural flood protection and habitat for thousands of species had been unraveled. One of the few, frayed threads remaining were the salt ponds.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>Migratory birds return\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>When John Johnson, Leslie Salt, and other fortune-seekers began diking the South Bay for salt ponds, they likely put little thought into what it would mean for the surrounding waterfowl, shorebirds, and other wetland species. But while they were molding the land to their own purposes, nature was adapting to them. And though many species were forced out, others found sanctuary in the salty South Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979889\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979889\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Dark brown and black waters swirl in curving lines through dark grey salt flats dotte,d by white birds.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3705-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Even dry salt beds provide important habitat for local and transient species. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>For threatened western snowy plovers (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus), driven by beachgoers from the shorelines they historically populated, the salt ponds granted reprieve. Earthen islands built to dampen the tidal erosion of the levees and dried salt beds proved well-suited for camouflaging the sandy-feathered shorebirds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Likewise, migratory water birds left with few places to roost and forage during their yearly journey along the 9,000-mile Pacific Flyway, a migration corridor stretching from Alaska to Patagonia, found a feast of brine shrimp and other invertebrates in the calm, shallow salt ponds. During one spring migration in the 1980s, researchers tallied more than 200,000 birds in a single pond.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979882\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979882\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Thousands of white dots mark a landscape far below of dark green and brown. These are migratory birds in a single salt pond.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A4348-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">During one spring migration in the 1980s, researchers tallied more than 200,000 birds in a single salt pond. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“The whole Pacific Flyway comes through here,” says Dave Halsing, a California State Coastal Conservancy scientist and executive project manager for the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (SBSPRP). “For those couple of weeks, this is all there is. The whole Central Valley of California used to be marshy open space. Now it’s all subdivisions and farmland. The stopover has become the bay.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even humans have benefitted to some degree from the salt ponds. Though not nearly as effective as wetlands, the ponds’ levees provide an important buffer between the bay and the surrounding communities, reducing flood risks during heavy rains and high tides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"quest_20389","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/span>Taking all of these unintended consequences into consideration has complicated efforts to restore the South Bay. “If all we had to do was tidal marsh restoration, it would be very simple,” Halsing says. “But it’s not.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In response, the SBSPRP is taking an adaptive approach, essentially treating the whole 50-year-long project as a series of smaller, more manageable endeavors, with the overall goal of restoring at least half of the 15,100 acres to tidal wetlands while maintaining current levels of flood protection and biodiversity. What this means in practice is breaching many of the ponds, preserving others as they are, and enhancing the rest by adding artificial islands for roosting, or altering salinity and water levels to attract certain species. Then the team monitors how those changes impact various species, and adjusts its strategy as needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From a distance, the work looks like a child’s sandbox, with mounds of earth surrounding bright yellow mechanical beasts of all shapes and sizes. Up close, it’s not all that different from any other construction site; half a dozen people or so busying about in hard hats and bright-colored vests, the loud rumble and hydraulic hisses of excavators and bulldozers roaring to life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘We had thought that it would take longer. It’s great to know that we’re having a positive effect.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","citation":"Donna Ball, San Francisco Estuary Institute","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Once the groundwork has been laid according to a specific pond’s fate — levees raised or lowered, earth graded to the desired slope, flood channels added or gated — volunteers from Save the Bay work with project biologists for what Donna Ball, a San Francisco Estuary Institute biologist and lead scientist on the SBSPRP, says is one of the most important parts of restoring the ecosystem: replanting vegetation. “Putting plants in is really the habitat piece,” Ball says. “It’s really the meat of trying to think about each species and what they might need.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To date, around 3,000 acres have been restored to tidal wetlands and 700 acres of ponds have been enhanced. Just as the first plants 3,000 years ago provided the foundation for the wetlands — and all the biodiversity they support — these initial plantings are bringing life back to the landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2014, just eight years after breaching the first ponds, Ridgway’s rails were discovered meandering through the marsh. A year later, researchers found salt marsh harvest mice (Reithrodontomys raviventris), an endangered species endemic to the Bay Area, scampering around dense carpets of pickleweed. Even threatened longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys) and other local fishes were visiting the surrounding waters in greater numbers than before.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wetlands were returning much faster than anyone had anticipated. “We had thought that it would take longer,” Ball says. “It’s great to know that we’re having a positive effect.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Importantly, even with the number of artificial salt ponds shrinking, improvements to those that remain has actually increased migratory water bird numbers. A study from the U.S. Geological Survey found that between 2002 and 2014, the number of overwintering water birds (both waterfowl and shorebirds) that stopped over in the project area more than doubled. By comparison, in nearby ponds still owned by Cargill for salt production, there was virtually no change in water bird visitation over roughly the same period.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979890\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979890\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A landscape of a white salt crust sits on top of winding dark red waters, wriggling through the salt crust. A dark yellow levee runs from the lower right corner to the upper left corner.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3997-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Though many of the South Bay’s salt ponds are being converted to tidal marsh, some will be left intact to support ground-nesting birds. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cdiv class=\"mceTemp\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>And though they haven’t experienced a similar surge, western snowy plover populations have held steady thanks to habitat enhancements, including spreading oyster shells on dried salt ponds for improved camouflage and removing nearby perches used by predatory raptors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The SBSPRP was restoring balance to the South Bay wetlands. But increasingly, the weight of climate change has been threatening to tip the scales back out of whack. To ensure their progress would not be undone, the project leaders had to start planning not only for what the wetlands needed today, but for what they will need in the near future.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>‘A fighting chance’ as bay waters rise\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>As I stand on one of the easternmost levees of Ravenswood, an open space preserve along the shore of the South Bay and one of three main restoration sites for the SBSPRP, it’s easy to grasp the Bay Area’s vulnerability to climate change. Within a 7-mile radius of me, over largely flat terrain, lies Redwood City, Palo Alto, and Menlo Park, with a combined population of nearly 200,000 people. Water from the bay practically laps at my feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to a recent report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, by 2050 sea levels along the West Coast are expected to rise between 4 and 8 inches. At the same time, flooding is expected to become more frequent and severe, with major flood events occurring five times as often.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979891\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979891\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"Dark orange salt pond water in the upper left corner meets a pale gold curve of levee. On the other side of the levee are the pale and dark brown wetlands, with dark green riparian areas twisting through.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3554-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Both levees and wetlands can protect surrounding communities from sea level rise. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>While climate change had long been considered by the SBSPRP, Ball says the increasingly dire predictions about when the Bay Area could feel its effects — and how severe those impacts could be on people and wildlife — has ramped up the project’s urgency, since healthy wetlands can serve as a natural barrier to flooding and storm surges.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The key word, however, is healthy. Even under ideal conditions, it takes time for restored wetlands to go from sparse and fragile vegetation to lush and robust. And rising seas and severe storms are not ideal circumstances for adolescent wetlands, inundating or robbing the young upstarts of the sediment they need to develop and thrive. The sooner ponds can be breached and restoration started, the more likely it is that the wetlands will be able to mature into a resilient ecosystem. Indeed, a 2019 study from Point Blue Conservation Science, a key partner in the restoration project, showed that if tidal fluctuations weren’t restored to certain parts of the project area by mid-century, they might never accrete enough sediment to survive.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even mature wetlands will eventually succumb to rising seas if rates of erosion and inundation outpace sedimentation. That is, unless they have somewhere to run.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While plants might appear immobile, over long periods of time plant populations can move in response to their environment. For wetland flora such as salt marsh gumplant (Grindelia stricta) or alkali heath (Frankenia salina), both of which love salty soil but prefer drier conditions, this means extending their roots upland as water levels rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979871\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1979871\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A landscape of marsh plants in peach, yellow, cream and brown falls from the upper left to the lower right, meeting a narrow triangle of grey-blue water. Long, narrow rivers run down the wetland to the bay.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3636-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Given time, marsh plants will move upslope or downslope to more suitable soil. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Historically, there was plenty of space for Bay Area marshes to migrate. Gradually sloped transition zones, or ecotones, hundreds to thousands of feet wide, bordered much of the wetlands, providing a spectrum of overlapping habitats from subtidal to salt marsh to upland meadows. Today, development has encroached on 90% of those areas, reducing them in most places to just a handful of feet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To give the South Bay’s nascent wetlands a fighting chance in the face of climate change, the SBSPRP is adding ecotones to many of their tidal marsh restoration sites during the latest phase of construction. Ecotones aren’t possible everywhere, but they have wide-ranging benefits. In addition to restoring wildlife habitat and tempering floods, they can preserve the beauty and accessibility of the wetlands for the region’s human inhabitants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1979892\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1979892 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A pale tan creek winds from the bottom of the image to the upper left corner, through lush green wetlands. The vegetation on either side of the creek is yellow-green, dark green and brown.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2022/07/88A3805-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A small creek winds through restored wetlands in San Francisco’s South Bay. \u003ccite>(joSon/bioGraphic)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Rather than protecting the Bay Area from floods by building a levee that would turn San Francisco Bay into a giant bathtub, Ball says, ecotones and other nature-based solutions can help “maintain this habitat — even for people.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>\u003cstrong>A continual cycle of rebirth\u003c/strong>\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>On a sunny early afternoon in spring, I visit Eden Landing Ecological Reserve, another of the main project sites for the SBSPRP. At the entrance, a sign briefly nods to the complicated history of the landscape, no doubt preparing visitors who might soon be confused by the presence of levees, flood control gates, and managed ponds in an ecological reserve. Moments into my walk, however, I feel no confusion: This land is undoubtedly wild.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As I head toward the trail loop, marsh wrens (Cistothorus palustris) burst from the grasses lining both sides of the path, chittering in alarm at my presence before sinking back into the tangle. To my right, a raft of American avocets, heads golden-brown, beaks slightly upturned, bob lazily in a shallow pond. To my left, a long-billed curlew (Numenius americanus) slinks through the tidal mudflats foraging for invertebrates.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Further down the trail, I find myself face-to-face with the full scope of the restoration project. I pass a half dozen ponds of various water levels and shades of yellow, hinting at their differences in salinity. In most, an artificial island emerges a foot or so above the surface. I walk atop levees for most of the journey, occasionally crossing over a floodgate separating pond from pond, or pond from bay. At one of the outermost points from the trailhead I come upon a dried salt bed, a parched moonscape shattered at the edges and scattered with oyster shells.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And at each turn I find signs of life. Goldfinches, yellowthroats and song sparrows flitting through the tall upland grasses. Ducks, herons and egrets along the channels bordering the tidal marshes. Sandpipers, willets, and stilts on the islands of the managed ponds. I even come across an unattended egg nestled atop a patch of clover on the bank of the levee.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I feel grateful for this space, a stone’s throw from busy metropolises and yet a world away. But strangely, I also find myself feeling thankful for the salt ponds — not only those that have been restored and enhanced, but also their human-made predecessors. Almost all of the restorable land along the shores of the South Bay exists because the industrial salt ponds unintentionally preserved this place. If not for the salt ponds, the area would have almost certainly been developed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The tension between what I know of the land’s tumultuous history and the peace I find there makes me think of joSon. Drawing on his past as a Buddhist monk, the photographer considers the restoration project a form of rebirth, a way of healing the wetlands while reconciling the land’s past traumas.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The concept of rebirth defines how we grow and redefine ourselves by simultaneously shedding and embracing our painful past,” he says. For him, the arc of the salt ponds’ history offers a way of thinking about how individuals, cultures and places can “adapt and move on.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Near the end of the trail, I come across the relics of a former salt harvesting operation, retained for posterity. Beyond, wooden pilings worn smooth by tides and time emerge from mudflats and murky ponds, supporting ghost structures no longer present. As the wetlands devour the scars of industry, a semblance of what this landscape once was — and has always been to the Ohlone, who continue to hold ceremonies at shellmound sites — is reemerging: a sacred place for plants, animals and people, a wetland in a constant cycle of being reborn.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1979865/migratory-birds-return-as-salt-ponds-heal-documenting-a-damaged-world-in-transition","authors":["byline_science_1979865"],"categories":["science_16","science_4550","science_40","science_4450","science_98"],"tags":["science_194","science_4414","science_556","science_206","science_207"],"featImg":"science_1979870","label":"source_science_1979865"},"science_1946858":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1946858","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1946858","score":null,"sort":[1566938056000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"what-does-12-years-to-act-on-climate-change-now-11-years-really-mean","title":"What Does '12 Years to Act on Climate Change' (Now 11 Years) Really Mean?","publishDate":1566938056,"format":"standard","headTitle":"What Does ’12 Years to Act on Climate Change’ (Now 11 Years) Really Mean? | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/Neq_CwpkPvsGmMG7hVOy7A?domain=insideclimatenews.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">InsideClimate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. Sign up for the ICN newsletter \u003c/em>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/pD-rCxklQwf1V61yTviMEq?domain=insideclimatenews.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’ve been hearing variations of the phrase “the world only has 12 years to deal with climate change” a lot lately. \u003cem>\u003cbr>\n\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u003cbr>\n\u003c/span>\u003c/em>Sen. Bernie Sanders put a version of it front and center of his presidential \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22082019/sanders-green-new-deal-climate-change-plan-fossil-fuels-transition-16-trillion\">campaign\u003c/a>\u003c/b> last week, \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://berniesanders.com/issues/the-green-new-deal/\">saying\u003c/a>\u003c/b> we now have “less than 11 years left to transform our energy system away from fossil fuels to energy efficiency and sustainable energy, if we are going to leave this planet healthy and habitable.”\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">[aside postID=science_1944972,news_11728595]\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But where does the idea of having 11 or 12 years come from, and what does it actually mean?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\">The number began drawing attention in 2018, when the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07102018/ipcc-climate-change-science-report-data-carbon-emissions-heat-waves-extreme-weather-oil-gas-agriculture\">report\u003c/a> describing what it would take to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, a goal of the \u003ca href=\"https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement\">Paris climate agreement\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report explained that countries would have to cut their anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, such as from power plants and vehicles, to net zero by around 2050. To reach that goal, it said, CO2 emissions would have to start dropping “well before 2030” and be on a \u003ca href=\"http://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/SPM3a.png\">path\u003c/a> to fall by about 45 percent by around 2030 (12 years away at that time).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\">Mid-century is actually the more significant target date in the report, but acting now is crucial to being able to meet that goal, said Duke University climate researcher Drew Shindell, a lead author on the mitigation chapter of the IPCC report.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\">“We need to get the world on a path to net zero CO2 emissions by mid-century,” Shindell said. “That’s a huge transformation, so that if we don’t make a good start on it during the 2020s, we won’t be able to get there at a reasonable cost.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>How Do Scientists Know?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Basic physics and climate science allow scientists to calculate how much CO2 it takes to raise the global temperature—and how much CO2 can still be emitted before global warming exceeds 1.5°C (2.7°F) compared to pre-industrial times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Scientists worked backward from that basic knowledge to come up with timelines for what would have to happen to stay under 1.5°C warming, said \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/airscottdenning\">Scott Denning\u003c/a>\u003c/b>, who studies the warming atmosphere at Colorado State University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“They figured out how much extra heat we can stand. They calculated how much CO2 would produce that much heat, then how much total fuel would produce that much CO2. Then they considered ‘glide paths’ for getting emissions to zero before we burn too much carbon to avoid catastrophe,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“All this work gets summarized as ‘in order to avoid really bad outcomes, we have to be on a realistic glide path toward a carbon-free global economy by 2030.’ And that gets translated to something like ’emissions have to fall by half in a decade,’ and that gets oversimplified to ’12 years left.’\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“There’s certainly a grain of truth in the phrase, but it’s so oversimplified that it leads to comically bad misconceptions about how to get there, conjuring up ridiculous cartoon imagery suggesting we just go on with life normally for the next 11 years and then the world ends,” Denning said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That’s not what the IPCC writers envisioned, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The science on the 2030 date is clear, said \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann\">Michael Mann\u003c/a>\u003c/b>, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University. The controversy stems from people mischaracterizing the carbon reduction timeline as a threshold for climate disaster. He noted that people promoting climate science denial and delay have also latched on to the phrase “to intentionally try to caricature the concern about climate change.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What Would Success Look Like? \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It would be helpful if people looked at the 2030 target in terms of what success looks like rather than what failure means, Denning said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“Solving the problem by 2030, 2040 or 2050 requires a new global energy infrastructure, which is arguably easier and less expensive than past infrastructure shifts like indoor plumbing, rural electrification, the automobile and paved roads, telecommunications, computers, mobile phones or the internet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“All of these past changes cost tens of trillions of dollars, adjusted for inflation. All of them were hugely disruptive. All of them took a decade or more, completely changed the industrial and economic and social landscape, and created bursts of growth and productivity and jobs. And arguably, all of them made life better for huge numbers of people.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This time, the shift is from heavy reliance on carbon-emitting fossil fuels to carbon-free energy sources, like wind power. And even with a speedy energy transition, the IPCC says keeping temperatures from warming more than 1.5°C will also likely require \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12102018/global-warming-solutions-negative-emissions-carbon-capture-technology-ipcc-climate-change-report\">removing CO2 from the atmosphere\u003c/a>\u003c/b> on a large scale.\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1946860 alignright\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/Carbon-Budget-Chart-529px.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"529\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/Carbon-Budget-Chart-529px.png 529w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/Carbon-Budget-Chart-529px-160x174.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 529px) 100vw, 529px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Missing the target doesn’t imply the onset of cataclysmic \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/topic/climate-change\">climate change\u003c/a> in 2030, Denning said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Things just keep getting worse and worse until we stop making them worse, and then they never get better,” he said. “But no matter what, the world has to move on from fossil fuels just as we moved on from tallow candles and outhouses and land lines.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What Would Exceeding 1.5°C Warming Mean?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The IPCC report described how increasing greenhouse gas emissions will result in more dangerous and costly disruptions to global societies and ecosystems, including longer, hotter \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02082017/heatwaves-deadly-heat-humidity-wet-bulb-human-survivability-threshold\">heat waves\u003c/a> and more frequent crop-killing \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01052019/drought-climate-change-fingerprints-global-warming-20th-century-tree-rings-marvel-cook\">droughts\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mountain glaciers will melt faster as the planet warms, creating \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26092018/climate-change-mountains-landslide-hazard-thawing-permafrost-rockfall-extreme-weather-glaciers-global-warming\">new risks\u003c/a>for settlements in the valleys below. The meltdown of polar ice sheets is also projected to accelerate, \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06082018/global-warming-climate-change-floods-california-oroville-dam-scientists\">intensifying flooding\u003c/a> and speeding up sea level rise to a rate that will be hard to adapt to. More \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16012019/permafrost-thaw-climate-change-temperature-data-arctic-antarctica-mountains-study\">Arctic permafrost will thaw\u003c/a>, releasing more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite the rising risks, it’s important to understand that, “in the physical climate system, there are no scientists claiming that there is a magical threshold that we breach or don’t breach that determines whether we have a habitable climate system,” said \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/Weather_West\">Daniel Swain\u003c/a>, a climate scientist at UCLA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.c3we.ucar.edu/\">Center for Climate and Weather Extremes\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 2030 target is useful because it shows how the “next decade is incredibly consequential for what we do.” Swain said. “But I think the emphasis that’s being placed on this specific 12-year window as a differentiator between existential crisis or not is problematic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“First of all, it negates some of the risks that already exist and that will continue to build no matter what. And it also potentially suggests that anything short of complete victory in the next 12 years is pointless, which is exactly the opposite of the truth. At any point along the spectrum, more progress is always going to be better than less progress, less warming is always going to be better than more warming.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Have We Passed Tipping Points Already?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In some ways, the “12 years” narrative may set up a deadline that’s too lenient, because some key part of the climate system may already be at or past tipping points, Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It creates the false illusion that there is some sort of guardrail moving forward, that if we just get in under the deadline we’ll be OK, he said. But “twelve years from now, it could be too late for some of these things, like the ice sheets.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Research in the past few years reinforces the idea that some climate tipping points have already been breached. Studies show some parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet are \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31032017/-climate-change-science-greenland-global-warming-ice-melt\">unlikely to recover\u003c/a>, and parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may also be at or very near a \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12082019/antarctica-climate-change-ocean-wind-ice-melting-glaciers-global-warming\">tipping point to rapid disintegration\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study published in June suggested that the \u003ca href=\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL082187\">rate of permafrost thawing\u003c/a>is progressing much faster than climate models projected. And scientists studying the link between global warming and European heat waves said those recent extremes are also \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02072019/climate-change-attribution-europe-heat-wave-hottest-june-record-wildfires-world-weather-data\">outside the scope\u003c/a> of what they expected at current levels of warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The world will still exist if we breach 1.5°C and 2°C, but “the climate impacts and risks will be higher and the temperature will be higher,” said \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen\">Glen Peters\u003c/a>, research director at the CICERO climate research center in Oslo. That all seems to be sinking in to public awareness, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But in terms of deadlines, we have already missed the deadline,” he said. “We should have started mitigating decades ago, then we would have the problem solved.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Where does the idea of having about a decade to deal with climate change come from? ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704848367,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":21,"wordCount":1547},"headData":{"title":"What Does '12 Years to Act on Climate Change' (Now 11 Years) Really Mean? | KQED","description":"Where does the idea of having about a decade to deal with climate change come from? ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"What Does '12 Years to Act on Climate Change' (Now 11 Years) Really Mean?","datePublished":"2019-08-27T20:34:16.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:59:27.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"InsideClimate News","sticky":false,"nprByline":"Bob Berwyn \u003cbr/>InsideClimate News \u003cbr>","path":"/science/1946858/what-does-12-years-to-act-on-climate-change-now-11-years-really-mean","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/Neq_CwpkPvsGmMG7hVOy7A?domain=insideclimatenews.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">InsideClimate News\u003c/a> is a nonprofit, independent news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. Sign up for the ICN newsletter \u003c/em>\u003cem>\u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/pD-rCxklQwf1V61yTviMEq?domain=insideclimatenews.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’ve been hearing variations of the phrase “the world only has 12 years to deal with climate change” a lot lately. \u003cem>\u003cbr>\n\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u003cbr>\n\u003c/span>\u003c/em>Sen. Bernie Sanders put a version of it front and center of his presidential \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22082019/sanders-green-new-deal-climate-change-plan-fossil-fuels-transition-16-trillion\">campaign\u003c/a>\u003c/b> last week, \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://berniesanders.com/issues/the-green-new-deal/\">saying\u003c/a>\u003c/b> we now have “less than 11 years left to transform our energy system away from fossil fuels to energy efficiency and sustainable energy, if we are going to leave this planet healthy and habitable.”\u003cem>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"science_1944972,news_11728595","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/span>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But where does the idea of having 11 or 12 years come from, and what does it actually mean?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\">The number began drawing attention in 2018, when the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07102018/ipcc-climate-change-science-report-data-carbon-emissions-heat-waves-extreme-weather-oil-gas-agriculture\">report\u003c/a> describing what it would take to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, a goal of the \u003ca href=\"https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement\">Paris climate agreement\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report explained that countries would have to cut their anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, such as from power plants and vehicles, to net zero by around 2050. To reach that goal, it said, CO2 emissions would have to start dropping “well before 2030” and be on a \u003ca href=\"http://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/SPM3a.png\">path\u003c/a> to fall by about 45 percent by around 2030 (12 years away at that time).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\">Mid-century is actually the more significant target date in the report, but acting now is crucial to being able to meet that goal, said Duke University climate researcher Drew Shindell, a lead author on the mitigation chapter of the IPCC report.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp dir=\"ltr\">“We need to get the world on a path to net zero CO2 emissions by mid-century,” Shindell said. “That’s a huge transformation, so that if we don’t make a good start on it during the 2020s, we won’t be able to get there at a reasonable cost.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>How Do Scientists Know?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Basic physics and climate science allow scientists to calculate how much CO2 it takes to raise the global temperature—and how much CO2 can still be emitted before global warming exceeds 1.5°C (2.7°F) compared to pre-industrial times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Scientists worked backward from that basic knowledge to come up with timelines for what would have to happen to stay under 1.5°C warming, said \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/airscottdenning\">Scott Denning\u003c/a>\u003c/b>, who studies the warming atmosphere at Colorado State University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“They figured out how much extra heat we can stand. They calculated how much CO2 would produce that much heat, then how much total fuel would produce that much CO2. Then they considered ‘glide paths’ for getting emissions to zero before we burn too much carbon to avoid catastrophe,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“All this work gets summarized as ‘in order to avoid really bad outcomes, we have to be on a realistic glide path toward a carbon-free global economy by 2030.’ And that gets translated to something like ’emissions have to fall by half in a decade,’ and that gets oversimplified to ’12 years left.’\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“There’s certainly a grain of truth in the phrase, but it’s so oversimplified that it leads to comically bad misconceptions about how to get there, conjuring up ridiculous cartoon imagery suggesting we just go on with life normally for the next 11 years and then the world ends,” Denning said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That’s not what the IPCC writers envisioned, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The science on the 2030 date is clear, said \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann\">Michael Mann\u003c/a>\u003c/b>, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University. The controversy stems from people mischaracterizing the carbon reduction timeline as a threshold for climate disaster. He noted that people promoting climate science denial and delay have also latched on to the phrase “to intentionally try to caricature the concern about climate change.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What Would Success Look Like? \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It would be helpful if people looked at the 2030 target in terms of what success looks like rather than what failure means, Denning said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“Solving the problem by 2030, 2040 or 2050 requires a new global energy infrastructure, which is arguably easier and less expensive than past infrastructure shifts like indoor plumbing, rural electrification, the automobile and paved roads, telecommunications, computers, mobile phones or the internet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“All of these past changes cost tens of trillions of dollars, adjusted for inflation. All of them were hugely disruptive. All of them took a decade or more, completely changed the industrial and economic and social landscape, and created bursts of growth and productivity and jobs. And arguably, all of them made life better for huge numbers of people.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This time, the shift is from heavy reliance on carbon-emitting fossil fuels to carbon-free energy sources, like wind power. And even with a speedy energy transition, the IPCC says keeping temperatures from warming more than 1.5°C will also likely require \u003cb>\u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12102018/global-warming-solutions-negative-emissions-carbon-capture-technology-ipcc-climate-change-report\">removing CO2 from the atmosphere\u003c/a>\u003c/b> on a large scale.\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1946860 alignright\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/Carbon-Budget-Chart-529px.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"529\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/Carbon-Budget-Chart-529px.png 529w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/08/Carbon-Budget-Chart-529px-160x174.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 529px) 100vw, 529px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Missing the target doesn’t imply the onset of cataclysmic \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/topic/climate-change\">climate change\u003c/a> in 2030, Denning said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Things just keep getting worse and worse until we stop making them worse, and then they never get better,” he said. “But no matter what, the world has to move on from fossil fuels just as we moved on from tallow candles and outhouses and land lines.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What Would Exceeding 1.5°C Warming Mean?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The IPCC report described how increasing greenhouse gas emissions will result in more dangerous and costly disruptions to global societies and ecosystems, including longer, hotter \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02082017/heatwaves-deadly-heat-humidity-wet-bulb-human-survivability-threshold\">heat waves\u003c/a> and more frequent crop-killing \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01052019/drought-climate-change-fingerprints-global-warming-20th-century-tree-rings-marvel-cook\">droughts\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mountain glaciers will melt faster as the planet warms, creating \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26092018/climate-change-mountains-landslide-hazard-thawing-permafrost-rockfall-extreme-weather-glaciers-global-warming\">new risks\u003c/a>for settlements in the valleys below. The meltdown of polar ice sheets is also projected to accelerate, \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06082018/global-warming-climate-change-floods-california-oroville-dam-scientists\">intensifying flooding\u003c/a> and speeding up sea level rise to a rate that will be hard to adapt to. More \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16012019/permafrost-thaw-climate-change-temperature-data-arctic-antarctica-mountains-study\">Arctic permafrost will thaw\u003c/a>, releasing more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Despite the rising risks, it’s important to understand that, “in the physical climate system, there are no scientists claiming that there is a magical threshold that we breach or don’t breach that determines whether we have a habitable climate system,” said \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/Weather_West\">Daniel Swain\u003c/a>, a climate scientist at UCLA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s \u003ca href=\"https://www.c3we.ucar.edu/\">Center for Climate and Weather Extremes\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 2030 target is useful because it shows how the “next decade is incredibly consequential for what we do.” Swain said. “But I think the emphasis that’s being placed on this specific 12-year window as a differentiator between existential crisis or not is problematic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“First of all, it negates some of the risks that already exist and that will continue to build no matter what. And it also potentially suggests that anything short of complete victory in the next 12 years is pointless, which is exactly the opposite of the truth. At any point along the spectrum, more progress is always going to be better than less progress, less warming is always going to be better than more warming.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Have We Passed Tipping Points Already?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In some ways, the “12 years” narrative may set up a deadline that’s too lenient, because some key part of the climate system may already be at or past tipping points, Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It creates the false illusion that there is some sort of guardrail moving forward, that if we just get in under the deadline we’ll be OK, he said. But “twelve years from now, it could be too late for some of these things, like the ice sheets.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Research in the past few years reinforces the idea that some climate tipping points have already been breached. Studies show some parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet are \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31032017/-climate-change-science-greenland-global-warming-ice-melt\">unlikely to recover\u003c/a>, and parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may also be at or very near a \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12082019/antarctica-climate-change-ocean-wind-ice-melting-glaciers-global-warming\">tipping point to rapid disintegration\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study published in June suggested that the \u003ca href=\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL082187\">rate of permafrost thawing\u003c/a>is progressing much faster than climate models projected. And scientists studying the link between global warming and European heat waves said those recent extremes are also \u003ca href=\"https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02072019/climate-change-attribution-europe-heat-wave-hottest-june-record-wildfires-world-weather-data\">outside the scope\u003c/a> of what they expected at current levels of warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The world will still exist if we breach 1.5°C and 2°C, but “the climate impacts and risks will be higher and the temperature will be higher,” said \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen\">Glen Peters\u003c/a>, research director at the CICERO climate research center in Oslo. That all seems to be sinking in to public awareness, he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“But in terms of deadlines, we have already missed the deadline,” he said. “We should have started mitigating decades ago, then we would have the problem solved.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1946858/what-does-12-years-to-act-on-climate-change-now-11-years-really-mean","authors":["byline_science_1946858"],"categories":["science_31","science_33","science_35","science_40"],"tags":["science_194","science_556","science_3838","science_4122","science_1460"],"featImg":"science_1946861","label":"source_science_1946858"},"science_1938135":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1938135","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1938135","score":null,"sort":[1551131922000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"big-ideas-for-how-cities-can-cope-with-a-changing-climate","title":"Big Ideas for How Cities Can Adapt to a Changing Climate","publishDate":1551131922,"format":"image","headTitle":"Big Ideas for How Cities Can Adapt to a Changing Climate | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Rising temperatures, rising sea levels, increased flooding and natural disasters are hallmarks of global climate change. As the effects of the warming climate become more acute, cities, where people, industry and development are densely packed, may be particularly impacted.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘In the past if you wanted to think long-term, you thought long-term. Now if you want to think long-term, you get busy.’\u003ccite>Alex Steffen\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Earlier this month, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101869473/special-broadcast-future-of-cities-in-a-changing-climate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">KQED Forum’s\u003c/a> Michael Krasny hosted a panel of guests at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.nightofideassf.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Night of Ideas\u003c/a> festival at the San Francisco Public Library to examine bold actions cities might take in the face of climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Guests included a landscape architect, a futurist, a designer and a science fiction author. Here are some of their insights, edited for length and clarity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Act Now\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alex Steffen, \u003c/strong>planetary futurist, \u003ca href=\"https://thenearlynow.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Nearly Now\u003c/a>; author, “Carbon Zero: Imagining Cities that Can Save the Planet”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We are in a planetary crisis and the choices we make in just the next few years will have profound implications for centuries and millennia. One of the difficult things to really grasp is how we’re used to thinking the world works — the speed of change that we tend to think is reasonable — is just right out the window. We’re now in a different world where change is fast. The impacts are very serious, and the stakes are high.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So we want to think about the things that we need to do to make 200 years from now livable. In the past if you wanted to think long- term you thought long-term. Now if you want to think long-term you get busy; you go out there and start doing things. So much of the political fight around this is not really whether or not we will end up doing something, it’s how fast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are a lot of people now who are recognizing that by acting much more quickly than we’re comfortable with we open up huge opportunities for the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Where do we begin and what big changes can we make?\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alex Steffen\u003c/strong>: Build. That is at the top of the list.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We have a massive housing crisis here in the state in almost every city. We know that adding dense affordable green housing to cities is possible. And if we do it right, we can decrease auto dependence. We can drop emissions. And we can have the money to build the kinds of systems we are going to need to not only bring our CO2 down with clean energy, but also prepare for the very serious consequences that are already hitting our shores.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Richard Kennedy, \u003c/strong>landscape architect; senior principal, James Corner Field Operations\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I am absolutely an optimist about the pressures and challenges ahead. I think cities are where the action is, but they are also the most sustainable way of living. They’re compact and dense and tied to transit. But cities can be better. They can be healthier, they can be greener, and they can be more equitable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think we all in some sense like being surrounded by people, being cheek to jowl with others. We go to popular restaurants and we come to events like this filled with people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And so the solution is to actually make these housing projects and new development more compact, more dense, and to create more space that can be retained as nature, as green space, parks, trails, running spaces, playgrounds. And when the tides come in, these places get flooded. When storms come and rainwater comes from the hills, they get flooded. But when those storms stop and the tides recede, those places dry up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So it’s just more dense but at the same time more green and I think more vibrant. It’s doing it in a way where you’re identifying where there’s space for green resources and where there’s space for development.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And we do need to build. We do need to be creating those spaces where cities can grow and populations can live.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Annalee Newitz\u003c/strong>, author, “Scatter, Adapt, and Remember: How Humans Will Survive a Mass Extinction; founder of \u003ca href=\"https://io9.gizmodo.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">io9\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think right now in the United States we have a model where most of our food is imported from another place. In San Franisco, we do have a whole locavore culture, which is kind of boutique food that’s grown locally, but most people get food that’s trucked or shipped in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A lot of arguments have been made that if we want to reduce our carbon footprint, one way to do that is to try to have not necessarily farming on your roof, but farms located near the city. That would make the city or a set of cities able to sustain themselves within a local region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And so you aren’t depending on truck routes, for example, to get your tomatoes or to get your oranges or to get your grapes. I don’t think we’re ever going to have a moment, at least in our lifetimes, where everyone in San Francisco is eating food only grown locally, but I think that that’s what we have to work toward\u003cem>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>It’s not just a technology problem; it’s also a ‘people problem\u003c/strong>‘\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Liz Ogbu, \u003c/strong>designer, urbanist; founder and princicpal, Studio O\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From an architecture perspective, we actually have the capacity to build better. We have made lots of advances in technology, and our buildings have a possibility of being carbon neutral.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The buildings that we design today make a much lighter footprint on the Earth than the ones from many years ago. In Silicon Valley we can talk about what it might look like to have a city without cars. That is all within our grasp. I think the challenge, however, is that it is not just a technology problem; it’s also a people problem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So as an architect I can tell you the things designed to make that better city. But the other piece of it is: What are the things that keep people poor? What are the things that keep us leading a wasteful existence? Are we at the point where we’re ready to make those big sacrifices?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now most of us with privilege are causing harm for those who are without. So what are we willing to give up? What are we willing to spend more on, in terms of taxes or in terms of us completely re-configuring the ways in which we design our cities. Maybe it’s not having such huge sprawl. Maybe our cities need to be much more compact and we have to be willing to let go of having such a large footprint. We could have lots of green life all around. We can have no cars on this street.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The way that we’re going, those who have already benefited from the system the way it is now will probably be the ones who continue to benefit, and the poor will continue to remain poor unless we do something about changing our social systems. I think the city of the future may have Jetsons-like scenery, but you’re probably still going to have some homeless people on the street.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003cstrong>Annalee Newitz\u003c/strong>: \u003c/b> I think borders are the enemy of survival. And I mean that in many different ways. But I think that we are looking toward a future where there is going to be mass migration due to climate change and political instability. We’re going to have to be thinking about more than the questions around developing more places for them to live, which I think absolutely we do.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>So what could the city of the future look like?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003cstrong>Annalee Newitz\u003c/strong>: \u003c/b>A lot of designers now are thinking about incorporating biological materials into city design. There’s a really interesting group in New York called \u003ca href=\"http://www.thelivingnewyork.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Living\u003c/a>, and they’re working on the idea that maybe one day you would plant a seed and grow a house.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s a kind of extreme version of what they’re working on. But the idea would be that you might be able to build with living materials with semipermeable membranes and self-healing materials so that you wouldn’t have to just rip down your house and build a new one. It could work with the environment instead of against the environment. And I think that stuff is quite exciting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I love the idea of a city which itself is alive, and also a city that maybe is built to contain nonhuman animals. We do live with animals all the time, but we don’t build our cities in harmony with them. I love the notion of a city that might build a migration pathway for animals to pass through because this is a huge issue in cities often, where we kind of wreck natural habitats and the natural pathways of the other animals that want to get through.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Learning from the past\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003cstrong>Annalee Newitz\u003c/strong>:\u003c/b> The past several years I’ve been visiting archaeological sites and talking with folks who work on ancient urban sites where people left. I looked at four cities in particular — \u003ca href=\"https://www.britannica.com/place/Pompeii\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pompeii\u003c/a> was one of them. And you think you know why people left Pompeii. But actually it’s more complicated than that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What really united all of these cities, one of which is 9,000 years old, is that people would start to leave those cities. They abandoned city life, often at great expense and personal cost, when there were environmental problems and infrastructure problems combined with political problems. And that’s pretty much the recipe for wrecking a city, when you combine those two things.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A lot of cities survive massive environmental problems, infrastructure that’s crumbling, if they have a healthy political or community structure. For example, Rome has survived thousands of years of political instability. But they have managed to maintain a healthy infrastructure through that time. So really what I found was that climate change and infrastructure maintenance are a huge theme throughout the history of cities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think what history shows us is that as we look to the future we constantly have to weigh both the nuts and bolts of environmental sustainability and the more heady work of thinking through our political system and thinking through how we handle the most vulnerable people in our society.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Start Locally\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003c/b>\u003cstrong>Liz Ogbu:\u003c/strong> It’s been very interesting since this current administration came into power how all of a sudden you saw action happening at the city and at the state level. People stopped expecting the federal government to do stuff for us, and we started to invest more in our local systems and talk about how we can make change at that level. We need to double down on that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you try to think about all of this stuff at the federal level, it’s almost too overwhelming. We just stop because it’s like there’s nothing we can do about that. Whereas at the local level we actually do have the capacity to start to make a change. And so if we start to talk about not just what are we passing but what are we doing to actually heal the social structures at the local level, we actually might have a chance of eventually making our way up to completely redoing what’s coming from the federal level\u003cem>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"How can the city of the future be reimagined for living in the face of climate change?","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704848834,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":43,"wordCount":1979},"headData":{"title":"Big Ideas for How Cities Can Adapt to a Changing Climate | KQED","description":"How can the city of the future be reimagined for living in the face of climate change?","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Big Ideas for How Cities Can Adapt to a Changing Climate","datePublished":"2019-02-25T21:58:42.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T01:07:14.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Climate","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1938135/big-ideas-for-how-cities-can-cope-with-a-changing-climate","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Rising temperatures, rising sea levels, increased flooding and natural disasters are hallmarks of global climate change. As the effects of the warming climate become more acute, cities, where people, industry and development are densely packed, may be particularly impacted.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘In the past if you wanted to think long-term, you thought long-term. Now if you want to think long-term, you get busy.’\u003ccite>Alex Steffen\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Earlier this month, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/forum/2010101869473/special-broadcast-future-of-cities-in-a-changing-climate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">KQED Forum’s\u003c/a> Michael Krasny hosted a panel of guests at the \u003ca href=\"https://www.nightofideassf.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Night of Ideas\u003c/a> festival at the San Francisco Public Library to examine bold actions cities might take in the face of climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Guests included a landscape architect, a futurist, a designer and a science fiction author. Here are some of their insights, edited for length and clarity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Act Now\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alex Steffen, \u003c/strong>planetary futurist, \u003ca href=\"https://thenearlynow.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Nearly Now\u003c/a>; author, “Carbon Zero: Imagining Cities that Can Save the Planet”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We are in a planetary crisis and the choices we make in just the next few years will have profound implications for centuries and millennia. One of the difficult things to really grasp is how we’re used to thinking the world works — the speed of change that we tend to think is reasonable — is just right out the window. We’re now in a different world where change is fast. The impacts are very serious, and the stakes are high.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So we want to think about the things that we need to do to make 200 years from now livable. In the past if you wanted to think long- term you thought long-term. Now if you want to think long-term you get busy; you go out there and start doing things. So much of the political fight around this is not really whether or not we will end up doing something, it’s how fast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are a lot of people now who are recognizing that by acting much more quickly than we’re comfortable with we open up huge opportunities for the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Where do we begin and what big changes can we make?\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Alex Steffen\u003c/strong>: Build. That is at the top of the list.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We have a massive housing crisis here in the state in almost every city. We know that adding dense affordable green housing to cities is possible. And if we do it right, we can decrease auto dependence. We can drop emissions. And we can have the money to build the kinds of systems we are going to need to not only bring our CO2 down with clean energy, but also prepare for the very serious consequences that are already hitting our shores.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Richard Kennedy, \u003c/strong>landscape architect; senior principal, James Corner Field Operations\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I am absolutely an optimist about the pressures and challenges ahead. I think cities are where the action is, but they are also the most sustainable way of living. They’re compact and dense and tied to transit. But cities can be better. They can be healthier, they can be greener, and they can be more equitable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think we all in some sense like being surrounded by people, being cheek to jowl with others. We go to popular restaurants and we come to events like this filled with people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And so the solution is to actually make these housing projects and new development more compact, more dense, and to create more space that can be retained as nature, as green space, parks, trails, running spaces, playgrounds. And when the tides come in, these places get flooded. When storms come and rainwater comes from the hills, they get flooded. But when those storms stop and the tides recede, those places dry up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So it’s just more dense but at the same time more green and I think more vibrant. It’s doing it in a way where you’re identifying where there’s space for green resources and where there’s space for development.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And we do need to build. We do need to be creating those spaces where cities can grow and populations can live.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Annalee Newitz\u003c/strong>, author, “Scatter, Adapt, and Remember: How Humans Will Survive a Mass Extinction; founder of \u003ca href=\"https://io9.gizmodo.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">io9\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think right now in the United States we have a model where most of our food is imported from another place. In San Franisco, we do have a whole locavore culture, which is kind of boutique food that’s grown locally, but most people get food that’s trucked or shipped in.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A lot of arguments have been made that if we want to reduce our carbon footprint, one way to do that is to try to have not necessarily farming on your roof, but farms located near the city. That would make the city or a set of cities able to sustain themselves within a local region.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And so you aren’t depending on truck routes, for example, to get your tomatoes or to get your oranges or to get your grapes. I don’t think we’re ever going to have a moment, at least in our lifetimes, where everyone in San Francisco is eating food only grown locally, but I think that that’s what we have to work toward\u003cem>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>It’s not just a technology problem; it’s also a ‘people problem\u003c/strong>‘\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Liz Ogbu, \u003c/strong>designer, urbanist; founder and princicpal, Studio O\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From an architecture perspective, we actually have the capacity to build better. We have made lots of advances in technology, and our buildings have a possibility of being carbon neutral.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The buildings that we design today make a much lighter footprint on the Earth than the ones from many years ago. In Silicon Valley we can talk about what it might look like to have a city without cars. That is all within our grasp. I think the challenge, however, is that it is not just a technology problem; it’s also a people problem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So as an architect I can tell you the things designed to make that better city. But the other piece of it is: What are the things that keep people poor? What are the things that keep us leading a wasteful existence? Are we at the point where we’re ready to make those big sacrifices?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now most of us with privilege are causing harm for those who are without. So what are we willing to give up? What are we willing to spend more on, in terms of taxes or in terms of us completely re-configuring the ways in which we design our cities. Maybe it’s not having such huge sprawl. Maybe our cities need to be much more compact and we have to be willing to let go of having such a large footprint. We could have lots of green life all around. We can have no cars on this street.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The way that we’re going, those who have already benefited from the system the way it is now will probably be the ones who continue to benefit, and the poor will continue to remain poor unless we do something about changing our social systems. I think the city of the future may have Jetsons-like scenery, but you’re probably still going to have some homeless people on the street.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003cstrong>Annalee Newitz\u003c/strong>: \u003c/b> I think borders are the enemy of survival. And I mean that in many different ways. But I think that we are looking toward a future where there is going to be mass migration due to climate change and political instability. We’re going to have to be thinking about more than the questions around developing more places for them to live, which I think absolutely we do.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>So what could the city of the future look like?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003cstrong>Annalee Newitz\u003c/strong>: \u003c/b>A lot of designers now are thinking about incorporating biological materials into city design. There’s a really interesting group in New York called \u003ca href=\"http://www.thelivingnewyork.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Living\u003c/a>, and they’re working on the idea that maybe one day you would plant a seed and grow a house.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s a kind of extreme version of what they’re working on. But the idea would be that you might be able to build with living materials with semipermeable membranes and self-healing materials so that you wouldn’t have to just rip down your house and build a new one. It could work with the environment instead of against the environment. And I think that stuff is quite exciting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I love the idea of a city which itself is alive, and also a city that maybe is built to contain nonhuman animals. We do live with animals all the time, but we don’t build our cities in harmony with them. I love the notion of a city that might build a migration pathway for animals to pass through because this is a huge issue in cities often, where we kind of wreck natural habitats and the natural pathways of the other animals that want to get through.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Learning from the past\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003cstrong>Annalee Newitz\u003c/strong>:\u003c/b> The past several years I’ve been visiting archaeological sites and talking with folks who work on ancient urban sites where people left. I looked at four cities in particular — \u003ca href=\"https://www.britannica.com/place/Pompeii\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pompeii\u003c/a> was one of them. And you think you know why people left Pompeii. But actually it’s more complicated than that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What really united all of these cities, one of which is 9,000 years old, is that people would start to leave those cities. They abandoned city life, often at great expense and personal cost, when there were environmental problems and infrastructure problems combined with political problems. And that’s pretty much the recipe for wrecking a city, when you combine those two things.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A lot of cities survive massive environmental problems, infrastructure that’s crumbling, if they have a healthy political or community structure. For example, Rome has survived thousands of years of political instability. But they have managed to maintain a healthy infrastructure through that time. So really what I found was that climate change and infrastructure maintenance are a huge theme throughout the history of cities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think what history shows us is that as we look to the future we constantly have to weigh both the nuts and bolts of environmental sustainability and the more heady work of thinking through our political system and thinking through how we handle the most vulnerable people in our society.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Start Locally\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>\u003c/b>\u003cstrong>Liz Ogbu:\u003c/strong> It’s been very interesting since this current administration came into power how all of a sudden you saw action happening at the city and at the state level. People stopped expecting the federal government to do stuff for us, and we started to invest more in our local systems and talk about how we can make change at that level. We need to double down on that.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you try to think about all of this stuff at the federal level, it’s almost too overwhelming. We just stop because it’s like there’s nothing we can do about that. Whereas at the local level we actually do have the capacity to start to make a change. And so if we start to talk about not just what are we passing but what are we doing to actually heal the social structures at the local level, we actually might have a chance of eventually making our way up to completely redoing what’s coming from the federal level\u003cem>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1938135/big-ideas-for-how-cities-can-cope-with-a-changing-climate","authors":["6387"],"categories":["science_31","science_33","science_35","science_37","science_40"],"tags":["science_194","science_3834","science_556","science_206"],"featImg":"science_1938197","label":"source_science_1938135"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. 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Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.","airtime":"SUN 2pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.possible.fm/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Possible"},"link":"/radio/program/possible","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/possible/id1677184070","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/730YpdUSNlMyPQwNnyjp4k"}},"1a":{"id":"1a","title":"1A","info":"1A is home to the national conversation. 1A brings on great guests and frames the best debate in ways that make you think, share and engage.","airtime":"MON-THU 11pm-12am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/1a.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://the1a.org/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/1a","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=1188724250&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/1A-p947376/","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510316/podcast.xml"}},"all-things-considered":{"id":"all-things-considered","title":"All Things Considered","info":"Every weekday, \u003cem>All Things Considered\u003c/em> hosts Robert Siegel, Audie Cornish, Ari Shapiro, and Kelly McEvers present the program's trademark mix of news, interviews, commentaries, reviews, and offbeat features. 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You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. 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For one hour a week, the show tries to lift the veil from the process of \"making media,\" especially news media, because it's through that lens that we see the world and the world sees us","airtime":"SUN 2pm-3pm, MON 12am-1am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/onTheMedia.png","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.wnycstudios.org/shows/otm","meta":{"site":"news","source":"wnyc"},"link":"/radio/program/on-the-media","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-media/id73330715?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/On-the-Media-p69/","rss":"http://feeds.wnyc.org/onthemedia"}},"our-body-politic":{"id":"our-body-politic","title":"Our Body Politic","info":"Presented by KQED, KCRW and KPCC, and created and hosted by award-winning journalist Farai Chideya, Our Body Politic is unapologetically centered on reporting on not just how women of color experience the major political events of today, but how they’re impacting those very issues.","airtime":"SAT 6pm-7pm, SUN 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Our-Body-Politic-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://our-body-politic.simplecast.com/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kcrw"},"link":"/radio/program/our-body-politic","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/our-body-politic/id1533069868","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5zaW1wbGVjYXN0LmNvbS9feGFQaHMxcw","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/4ApAiLT1kV153TttWAmqmc","rss":"https://feeds.simplecast.com/_xaPhs1s","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/Our-Body-Politic-p1369211/"}},"pbs-newshour":{"id":"pbs-newshour","title":"PBS NewsHour","info":"Analysis, background reports and updates from the PBS NewsHour putting today's news in context.","airtime":"MON-FRI 3pm-4pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/PBS-News-Hour-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"pbs"},"link":"/radio/program/pbs-newshour","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/pbs-newshour-full-show/id394432287?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/PBS-NewsHour---Full-Show-p425698/","rss":"https://www.pbs.org/newshour/feeds/rss/podcasts/show"}},"perspectives":{"id":"perspectives","title":"Perspectives","tagline":"KQED's series of of daily listener commentaries since 1991","info":"KQED's series of of daily listener commentaries since 1991.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Perspectives-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"/perspectives/","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"kqed","order":"15"},"link":"/perspectives","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id73801135","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/432309616/perspectives","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/perspectives/category/perspectives/feed/","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvcGVyc3BlY3RpdmVzL2NhdGVnb3J5L3BlcnNwZWN0aXZlcy9mZWVkLw"}},"planet-money":{"id":"planet-money","title":"Planet Money","info":"The economy explained. 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The result is stories that inform and inspire, arming our listeners with information to right injustices, hold the powerful accountable and improve lives.Reveal is hosted by Al Letson and showcases the award-winning work of CIR and newsrooms large and small across the nation. In a radio and podcast market crowded with choices, Reveal focuses on important and often surprising stories that illuminate the world for our listeners.","airtime":"SAT 4pm-5pm","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/reveal300px.png","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.revealnews.org/episodes/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/reveal","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/reveal/id886009669","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/Reveal-p679597/","rss":"http://feeds.revealradio.org/revealpodcast"}},"says-you":{"id":"says-you","title":"Says You!","info":"Public radio's game show of bluff and bluster, words and whimsy. 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