Looks Like Another Dead End for Earthquake Prediction
New Paper Outlines Updated Look on San Andreas Fault System
New-Generation Earthquake Forecasting Swings into Operation in Italy
Progress in Earthquake Forecasts May Come from Studying Foreshocks
Seismology Semantics: Researchers Successfully 'Anticipate' Costa Rican Earthquake
The Science of California's Seismic Pests, or Earthquake "Swarms"
The Temptation to Treat Hunches As Science in Earthquake Prediction Research
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But a new study suggests that the foreshock theory is, well, shaky.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In particular, some scientists thought tremors that preceded a 1999 \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_%C4%B0zmit_earthquake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">earthquake near Izmit, Turkey\u003c/a> might prove that foreshocks are warnings of bigger quakes to come, due to the way geologic events played out miles below the surface. But new and expanded analysis of seismographic data from that magnitude 7.6 event shows no connection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that the foreshocks — the earthquakes that preceded it — were no different than ordinary earthquakes,” says geophysicist Bill Ellsworth, who \u003ca href=\"https://news.stanford.edu/press/view/21149\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">led the study\u003c/a> for Stanford. “There were no characteristics that impending signs of an earthquake about to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It seems to reiterate the standard position,” says \u003ca href=\"https://websites.pmc.ucsc.edu/~seisweb/emily_brodsky/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Emily Brodsky\u003c/a>, who studies earthquake prediction at UC Santa Cruz.” Brodsky points out that while about half of big earthquakes have “observable foreshocks,” only about 5 percent of earthquakes turn out to be foreshocks. (The trouble with any precursor quakes is that you never know if they’re foreshocks — that is, related to the main shock — until the dust clears.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This has been the quandary for some time,” says Brodsky. “This study reinforces that quandary by once again finding no specific attribute of the foreshocks that can distinguish them in real time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This kind of quake prediction is distinct from current efforts to provide “\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1922600/112-years-after-the-san-francisco-earthquake-an-app-to-give-warning\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">early warning\u003c/a>” of impending quakes. The latter is based on technology picking up the “P-wave,” or primary wave that precedes the shaking and instantaneously transmitting a warning seconds before that shaking arrives at your location.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For us to ‘predict’ something will follow, we need to see a sequence of events like this before all earthquakes. We do not,” adds Richard Allen, who heads the Berkeley Seismology Lab at UC Berkeley.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What that leaves is a very interesting scientific question about the process by which an earthquake starts,” offers Richard Allen, who heads the Berkeley Seismology Lab at UC Berkeley. “Does it start with slow slip that grows and may generate foreshocks? ‘No it does not,’ says this study.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ellsworth says studying faultlines has given us much better knowledge of where quakes are likely to occur and even how strong they might be — but this latest study leaves doubt that foreshocks can tell us when.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We know that small earthquakes are symptoms of conditions that are favorable for occurrence of larger earthquakes,” he says. “We just don’t know when those small earthquakes say the larger one will occur.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Therefore he says, the key is for communities to be truly prepared for the big event, whenever it happens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The joint study by scientists at Stanford and in Turkey at Boğaziçi University’s Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute was published online Monday in the journal \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/ngeo/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nature Geoscience\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Geologists were hoping the data from a 1999 earthquake in Turkey would provide hints of a connection between smaller quakes and larger ones.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927856,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":529},"headData":{"title":"Looks Like Another Dead End for Earthquake Prediction | KQED","description":"Geologists were hoping the data from a 1999 earthquake in Turkey would provide hints of a connection between smaller quakes and larger ones.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Looks Like Another Dead End for Earthquake Prediction","datePublished":"2018-06-04T20:20:11.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:04:16.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Geology","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/tcr/2018/06/ForeshockQuakesMiller180604.mp3","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1925169/can-foreshocks-predict-larger-earthquakes-dont-count-on-it","audioDuration":116000,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Scientists have long held out hope that major earthquakes might be predictable from their “foreshocks” — the smaller tremors that often occur right before a major quake. But a new study suggests that the foreshock theory is, well, shaky.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In particular, some scientists thought tremors that preceded a 1999 \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_%C4%B0zmit_earthquake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">earthquake near Izmit, Turkey\u003c/a> might prove that foreshocks are warnings of bigger quakes to come, due to the way geologic events played out miles below the surface. But new and expanded analysis of seismographic data from that magnitude 7.6 event shows no connection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that the foreshocks — the earthquakes that preceded it — were no different than ordinary earthquakes,” says geophysicist Bill Ellsworth, who \u003ca href=\"https://news.stanford.edu/press/view/21149\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">led the study\u003c/a> for Stanford. “There were no characteristics that impending signs of an earthquake about to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It seems to reiterate the standard position,” says \u003ca href=\"https://websites.pmc.ucsc.edu/~seisweb/emily_brodsky/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Emily Brodsky\u003c/a>, who studies earthquake prediction at UC Santa Cruz.” Brodsky points out that while about half of big earthquakes have “observable foreshocks,” only about 5 percent of earthquakes turn out to be foreshocks. (The trouble with any precursor quakes is that you never know if they’re foreshocks — that is, related to the main shock — until the dust clears.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This has been the quandary for some time,” says Brodsky. “This study reinforces that quandary by once again finding no specific attribute of the foreshocks that can distinguish them in real time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This kind of quake prediction is distinct from current efforts to provide “\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1922600/112-years-after-the-san-francisco-earthquake-an-app-to-give-warning\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">early warning\u003c/a>” of impending quakes. The latter is based on technology picking up the “P-wave,” or primary wave that precedes the shaking and instantaneously transmitting a warning seconds before that shaking arrives at your location.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For us to ‘predict’ something will follow, we need to see a sequence of events like this before all earthquakes. We do not,” adds Richard Allen, who heads the Berkeley Seismology Lab at UC Berkeley.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What that leaves is a very interesting scientific question about the process by which an earthquake starts,” offers Richard Allen, who heads the Berkeley Seismology Lab at UC Berkeley. “Does it start with slow slip that grows and may generate foreshocks? ‘No it does not,’ says this study.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ellsworth says studying faultlines has given us much better knowledge of where quakes are likely to occur and even how strong they might be — but this latest study leaves doubt that foreshocks can tell us when.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We know that small earthquakes are symptoms of conditions that are favorable for occurrence of larger earthquakes,” he says. “We just don’t know when those small earthquakes say the larger one will occur.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Therefore he says, the key is for communities to be truly prepared for the big event, whenever it happens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The joint study by scientists at Stanford and in Turkey at Boğaziçi University’s Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute was published online Monday in the journal \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/ngeo/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nature Geoscience\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1925169/can-foreshocks-predict-larger-earthquakes-dont-count-on-it","authors":["221"],"categories":["science_38","science_40"],"tags":["science_529","science_427","science_3370","science_550"],"featImg":"science_1925183","label":"source_science_1925169"},"science_22600":{"type":"posts","id":"science_22600","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"22600","score":null,"sort":[1413468044000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"new-paper-outlines-updated-look-hazards-on-san-andreas-fault-system","title":"New Paper Outlines Updated Look on San Andreas Fault System","publishDate":1413468044,"format":"aside","headTitle":"New Paper Outlines Updated Look on San Andreas Fault System | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22601\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/faultcreep.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/faultcreep.jpg\" alt=\"Fault creep\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22601\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fault creep on the Hayward fault has offset this Oakland street curb, along with a fiduciary mark made with a concrete saw. (Andrew Alden photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A new paper in the \u003ci>Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America\u003c/i> offers an updated look at the state of the Bay Area’s most dangerous earthquake faults. Many news outlets this week went the alarmist route, calling the faults “overdue” to produce damaging quakes. \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/fl/overdue-earthquakes.htm\">I’ve pointed out why scientists take pains never to use that “O-word.”\u003c/a> They can do little more than specify the odds of a particular fault having its next large earthquake. We have no way of saying when that quake will happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are a couple of things that everyone should know about the San Andreas fault system. First, it’s a whole set of earthquake faults that are organized in three main branches. One is the familiar San Andreas fault, which runs past San Francisco up the Pacific coast. The second splits off the San Andreas down around Gilroy and has various names along its crooked course north past the East Bay: Calaveras, Hayward, Rodgers Creek, Maacama, and so on. The third branch splits off the Calaveras fault in Fremont and runs north still further inland under the names Northern Calaveras, Concord, Green Valley, and Bartlett Springs. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Second, the San Andreas fault system does its thing in its own time, at its own speed. The great tectonic plates that drive these faults move past each other at about two inches a year, roughly the speed your fingernails grow. When a new paper comes out, it’s not reporting any change in the fault system itself. It’s documenting progress in our own understanding, giving us a picture of something a little more in focus than we could see before. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In this week’s paper, Jim Lienkaemper of the U.S. Geological Survey and three coauthors summarize a huge number of measurements of fault creep up and down the state. Fault creep is a steady motion that takes place without earthquakes. Scientists have been making these painstaking measurements for decades at dozens of places, as shown in this map from the paper showing the major strands of the San Andreas fault system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22602\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepmap.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepmap.png\" alt=\"Creep map of San Andreas fault system\" width=\"600\" height=\"547\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22602\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Map showing the branches of the San Andreas fault system. Branch A is the San Gregorio fault; branch B is the San Andreas fault; branch C is the Southern Calaveras-Hayward branch; branch D is the Northern Calaveras branch. Portion of Figure 2, Lienkaemper et al., “Using Surface Creep Rate to Infer Fraction Locked for Sections of the San Andreas Fault System in Northern California from Alignment Array and GPS Data,” BSSA, December 2014 (BSAA/USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Creep varies a great deal in the San Andreas fault system. The authors used this creep data to estimate how much of the fault is creeping (not gaining strain energy) and how much is locked together, gathering energy for the next big earthquake. The main strand of the San Andreas fault is almost entirely locked, but the other branches creep at different rates in different places. One of the authors’ big achievements is this graph.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22603\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepgraph.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepgraph.png\" alt=\"Fault creep graphs\" width=\"600\" height=\"371\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22603\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Creep observations along the two eastern branches of the San Andreas fault system. From Figure 3 of Lienkaemper et al.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The authors used this data to assess how much energy has been accumulating on the locked portions of each of 21 specific segments of these faults. Combined with the history of earthquakes on these segments—something these scientists have been studying with \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/03/20/digging-up-new-information-on-old-earthquakes/\">trenching studies\u003c/a> for more than 30 years—they concluded that several fault segments have accumulated enough energy to be released in major earthquakes. They are the Rodgers Creek fault (segment C7), northern Calaveras fault (D1 and D2), southern Green Valley fault (D3), and the southern Hayward fault (C3 and C4). They appear to have reached the level of strain energy (seismic moment) that’s released in earthquakes of magnitude 6.8 to 7.1, around 10 times as strong as the recent magnitude-6 South Napa quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These are not predictions of any sort, just statements about the energy buildup according to a cutting-edge analysis, involving many assumptions, of an imperfectly known geological system. There’s no “overdue” involved, only the suggestion that large quakes are a distinct possibility on these fault segments given their history and behavior. When those quakes may happen is still a roll of the dice. Nothing has changed except what we know.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"A new study from our local earthquake experts has put new and clearer numbers on the risk of large earthquakes in the Bay Area's future--evidence of new progress in this slow process of enlightenment.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704932761,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":9,"wordCount":765},"headData":{"title":"New Paper Outlines Updated Look on San Andreas Fault System | KQED","description":"A new study from our local earthquake experts has put new and clearer numbers on the risk of large earthquakes in the Bay Area's future--evidence of new progress in this slow process of enlightenment.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"New Paper Outlines Updated Look on San Andreas Fault System","datePublished":"2014-10-16T14:00:44.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:26:01.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/22600/new-paper-outlines-updated-look-hazards-on-san-andreas-fault-system","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22601\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/faultcreep.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/faultcreep.jpg\" alt=\"Fault creep\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22601\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Fault creep on the Hayward fault has offset this Oakland street curb, along with a fiduciary mark made with a concrete saw. (Andrew Alden photo)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A new paper in the \u003ci>Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America\u003c/i> offers an updated look at the state of the Bay Area’s most dangerous earthquake faults. Many news outlets this week went the alarmist route, calling the faults “overdue” to produce damaging quakes. \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/fl/overdue-earthquakes.htm\">I’ve pointed out why scientists take pains never to use that “O-word.”\u003c/a> They can do little more than specify the odds of a particular fault having its next large earthquake. We have no way of saying when that quake will happen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are a couple of things that everyone should know about the San Andreas fault system. First, it’s a whole set of earthquake faults that are organized in three main branches. One is the familiar San Andreas fault, which runs past San Francisco up the Pacific coast. The second splits off the San Andreas down around Gilroy and has various names along its crooked course north past the East Bay: Calaveras, Hayward, Rodgers Creek, Maacama, and so on. The third branch splits off the Calaveras fault in Fremont and runs north still further inland under the names Northern Calaveras, Concord, Green Valley, and Bartlett Springs. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Second, the San Andreas fault system does its thing in its own time, at its own speed. The great tectonic plates that drive these faults move past each other at about two inches a year, roughly the speed your fingernails grow. When a new paper comes out, it’s not reporting any change in the fault system itself. It’s documenting progress in our own understanding, giving us a picture of something a little more in focus than we could see before. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In this week’s paper, Jim Lienkaemper of the U.S. Geological Survey and three coauthors summarize a huge number of measurements of fault creep up and down the state. Fault creep is a steady motion that takes place without earthquakes. Scientists have been making these painstaking measurements for decades at dozens of places, as shown in this map from the paper showing the major strands of the San Andreas fault system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22602\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepmap.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepmap.png\" alt=\"Creep map of San Andreas fault system\" width=\"600\" height=\"547\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22602\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Map showing the branches of the San Andreas fault system. Branch A is the San Gregorio fault; branch B is the San Andreas fault; branch C is the Southern Calaveras-Hayward branch; branch D is the Northern Calaveras branch. Portion of Figure 2, Lienkaemper et al., “Using Surface Creep Rate to Infer Fraction Locked for Sections of the San Andreas Fault System in Northern California from Alignment Array and GPS Data,” BSSA, December 2014 (BSAA/USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Creep varies a great deal in the San Andreas fault system. The authors used this creep data to estimate how much of the fault is creeping (not gaining strain energy) and how much is locked together, gathering energy for the next big earthquake. The main strand of the San Andreas fault is almost entirely locked, but the other branches creep at different rates in different places. One of the authors’ big achievements is this graph.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22603\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepgraph.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/SAFcreepgraph.png\" alt=\"Fault creep graphs\" width=\"600\" height=\"371\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22603\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Creep observations along the two eastern branches of the San Andreas fault system. From Figure 3 of Lienkaemper et al.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The authors used this data to assess how much energy has been accumulating on the locked portions of each of 21 specific segments of these faults. Combined with the history of earthquakes on these segments—something these scientists have been studying with \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/03/20/digging-up-new-information-on-old-earthquakes/\">trenching studies\u003c/a> for more than 30 years—they concluded that several fault segments have accumulated enough energy to be released in major earthquakes. They are the Rodgers Creek fault (segment C7), northern Calaveras fault (D1 and D2), southern Green Valley fault (D3), and the southern Hayward fault (C3 and C4). They appear to have reached the level of strain energy (seismic moment) that’s released in earthquakes of magnitude 6.8 to 7.1, around 10 times as strong as the recent magnitude-6 South Napa quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These are not predictions of any sort, just statements about the energy buildup according to a cutting-edge analysis, involving many assumptions, of an imperfectly known geological system. There’s no “overdue” involved, only the suggestion that large quakes are a distinct possibility on these fault segments given their history and behavior. When those quakes may happen is still a roll of the dice. Nothing has changed except what we know.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/22600/new-paper-outlines-updated-look-hazards-on-san-andreas-fault-system","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_257","science_529","science_427"],"featImg":"science_22601","label":"science"},"science_20765":{"type":"posts","id":"science_20765","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"20765","score":null,"sort":[1408648330000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"new-generation-earthquake-forecasting-swings-into-operation-in-italy","title":"New-Generation Earthquake Forecasting Swings into Operation in Italy","publishDate":1408648330,"format":"aside","headTitle":"New-Generation Earthquake Forecasting Swings into Operation in Italy | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20767\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/LAquila-EQ-Bugnara_Castle.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/LAquila-EQ-Bugnara_Castle.jpg\" alt=\"Italian castle with quake damage\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20767\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The 12th-century Palazzo Ducale in Bugnara, Italy, suffered roof damage in the L’Aquila earthquake of 2009 (Susan Cardwell/Wikimedia \u003ca href=\"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/it/deed.en\">CC\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Scientists are starting to roll out the next generation of earthquake forecasts, based on a smorgasbord of theoretical advances. \u003ca href=\"http://www.scec.org/ucerf2/\">While California has been using some features of this new approach\u003c/a>, Italy is breaking new ground with a system that will issue routine seismic forecasts for the whole country—in technical terms, an operational system. Leaders in this effort explain and defend their approach in two articles in the September issue of the journal \u003ci>Seismological Research Letters\u003c/i> (SRL).[contextly_sidebar id=”6weu5cCYYr1k2YDULl1lLBiVdzZ1RrGT”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Italian system, now in beta testing, is described in an SRL article by three scientists from the \u003ca href=\"http://www.distar.unina.it/en/terremoti/pericolosita-sismica-ingv\">Seismic Hazard Center\u003c/a> of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology. It will create products similar to the map below, showing a forecast for earthquakes of magnitude 4 or greater during the first week of 2014.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20768\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 565px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Italy-EQ-forecast.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Italy-EQ-forecast.png\" alt=\"Italy quake forecast\" width=\"565\" height=\"435\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Probabilities of magnitude-4+ events during the week starting December 31, 2013. The island of Sardinia is grayed out because it isn’t included for now; so is the highly active Etna volcano, in Sicily. Notice how small the odds are. (from Marzocchi et al., “The establishment of an operational earthquake forecasting system in Italy,” SRL, doi: 10.1785/0220130219)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>We’re used to weather forecasts that give the odds of rain tomorrow. The Italian operational earthquake forecasts will work essentially the same way. The difference with earthquakes is that on any given day—even any given month or year—the odds of one happening are quite small. Seismologists know that, and the public will have to learn that as well. Once they do, they should be less prone to alarmists, cranks and frauds. This will be a good thing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Let’s take a dramatic example. We all know that big earthquakes have aftershocks. For a few days, earthquakes become hundreds, even thousands of times more likely! But sizeable aftershocks, within one magnitude unit of the mainshock, have odds of roughly 1 percent, and even that’s only in the first two or three days afterward. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That doesn’t sound like much, and it isn’t, but that level of information is still powerful. Consider this: Would people buy a lottery ticket if the state temporarily raised the chance of winning by a hundred times? They probably would, because by analogy that’s what they do when the prizes grow large.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But while people notice this kind of thing, they don’t overreact, either. Public panic thrives in the absence of official information. The Italian system will need a lot of fine-tuning and review before it’s tested on the public. (For instance, the colors on the map look more alarming than they should.) Underlying the operational system are the best quake-prediction models we have, fully open to all users and under continual testing by the \u003ca href=\"http://www.cseptesting.org/\">Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability\u003c/a>. It is, in a word, the best science available.[contextly_sidebar id=”epps1FrSegYW6amzkgZiDXf7ZeNiGnYh”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquake scientists have been slow to share this kind of information before. The best research-grade prediction schemes are improving, but they still work only a few times better than chance. But \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_L%27Aquila_earthquake\">the deadly L’Aquila, Italy, earthquake of April 2009\u003c/a> forced scientists’ hands when the official panel of earthquake experts who failed to issue a prediction or a warning at the time were convicted of manslaughter and sentenced to 6 years in jail. (The case is being retried.) \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Is it better to share imperfect knowledge with the public, or to avoid panic and misinterpretation by keeping it confidential? The message of L’Aquila was that for better or worse, the science must be shared. An expert panel, the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting, prepared a \u003ca href=\"http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371\">comprehensive report on earthquake-prediction science\u003c/a> for the Italian government in 2011 that led to the birth of the new Italian system. In a second SRL article, members of that panel led by UCLA’s Thomas Jordan argue, “Models that are uncertain and cannot explain everything can still be very useful.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Operational earthquake forecasting puts this statement into action with two essential principles. The first is a transparency principle: “authoritative scientific information about future earthquake activity should not be withheld from the public.” One of the most pernicious myths among earthquake paranoids is that the government knows the truth but is hiding it from us. This myth holds enough power to have dragged the Italian seismologists into a manslaughter trial. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The second principle is that “authoritative scientific information about future earthquake activity should be developed independently of its applications to risk assessment and mitigation.” Seismologists will be the first to admit that they aren’t competent to issue alarms, order evacuations, improve building codes, enforce zoning ordinances, and all of the other useful things that scientific knowledge can contribute to. You might call this a firewall principle, because it frees scientists from the threat of persecution. But I prefer to think of it as an inclusion principle: for society to work best, science must have an equal place at the table along with other authorities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To scientists, earthquake forecasting is still in its infancy. But operational systems are being built because the rest of us still want the information, even if scientists think it’s rudimentary. I think we can learn to handle it, just as we handle weather forecasts. And this way the public can grow in knowledge at the same time as scientists learn.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Italy is approaching the next frontier in earthquake forecasting: an \"operational\" system that will make quake forecasts routine, whose contents we can take in stride.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704933113,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":13,"wordCount":948},"headData":{"title":"New-Generation Earthquake Forecasting Swings into Operation in Italy | KQED","description":"Italy is approaching the next frontier in earthquake forecasting: an "operational" system that will make quake forecasts routine, whose contents we can take in stride.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"New-Generation Earthquake Forecasting Swings into Operation in Italy","datePublished":"2014-08-21T19:12:10.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:31:53.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/20765/new-generation-earthquake-forecasting-swings-into-operation-in-italy","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20767\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/LAquila-EQ-Bugnara_Castle.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/LAquila-EQ-Bugnara_Castle.jpg\" alt=\"Italian castle with quake damage\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20767\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The 12th-century Palazzo Ducale in Bugnara, Italy, suffered roof damage in the L’Aquila earthquake of 2009 (Susan Cardwell/Wikimedia \u003ca href=\"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/it/deed.en\">CC\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Scientists are starting to roll out the next generation of earthquake forecasts, based on a smorgasbord of theoretical advances. \u003ca href=\"http://www.scec.org/ucerf2/\">While California has been using some features of this new approach\u003c/a>, Italy is breaking new ground with a system that will issue routine seismic forecasts for the whole country—in technical terms, an operational system. Leaders in this effort explain and defend their approach in two articles in the September issue of the journal \u003ci>Seismological Research Letters\u003c/i> (SRL).\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Italian system, now in beta testing, is described in an SRL article by three scientists from the \u003ca href=\"http://www.distar.unina.it/en/terremoti/pericolosita-sismica-ingv\">Seismic Hazard Center\u003c/a> of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology. It will create products similar to the map below, showing a forecast for earthquakes of magnitude 4 or greater during the first week of 2014.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20768\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 565px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Italy-EQ-forecast.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Italy-EQ-forecast.png\" alt=\"Italy quake forecast\" width=\"565\" height=\"435\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Probabilities of magnitude-4+ events during the week starting December 31, 2013. The island of Sardinia is grayed out because it isn’t included for now; so is the highly active Etna volcano, in Sicily. Notice how small the odds are. (from Marzocchi et al., “The establishment of an operational earthquake forecasting system in Italy,” SRL, doi: 10.1785/0220130219)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>We’re used to weather forecasts that give the odds of rain tomorrow. The Italian operational earthquake forecasts will work essentially the same way. The difference with earthquakes is that on any given day—even any given month or year—the odds of one happening are quite small. Seismologists know that, and the public will have to learn that as well. Once they do, they should be less prone to alarmists, cranks and frauds. This will be a good thing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Let’s take a dramatic example. We all know that big earthquakes have aftershocks. For a few days, earthquakes become hundreds, even thousands of times more likely! But sizeable aftershocks, within one magnitude unit of the mainshock, have odds of roughly 1 percent, and even that’s only in the first two or three days afterward. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That doesn’t sound like much, and it isn’t, but that level of information is still powerful. Consider this: Would people buy a lottery ticket if the state temporarily raised the chance of winning by a hundred times? They probably would, because by analogy that’s what they do when the prizes grow large.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But while people notice this kind of thing, they don’t overreact, either. Public panic thrives in the absence of official information. The Italian system will need a lot of fine-tuning and review before it’s tested on the public. (For instance, the colors on the map look more alarming than they should.) Underlying the operational system are the best quake-prediction models we have, fully open to all users and under continual testing by the \u003ca href=\"http://www.cseptesting.org/\">Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability\u003c/a>. It is, in a word, the best science available.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquake scientists have been slow to share this kind of information before. The best research-grade prediction schemes are improving, but they still work only a few times better than chance. But \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_L%27Aquila_earthquake\">the deadly L’Aquila, Italy, earthquake of April 2009\u003c/a> forced scientists’ hands when the official panel of earthquake experts who failed to issue a prediction or a warning at the time were convicted of manslaughter and sentenced to 6 years in jail. (The case is being retried.) \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Is it better to share imperfect knowledge with the public, or to avoid panic and misinterpretation by keeping it confidential? The message of L’Aquila was that for better or worse, the science must be shared. An expert panel, the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting, prepared a \u003ca href=\"http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371\">comprehensive report on earthquake-prediction science\u003c/a> for the Italian government in 2011 that led to the birth of the new Italian system. In a second SRL article, members of that panel led by UCLA’s Thomas Jordan argue, “Models that are uncertain and cannot explain everything can still be very useful.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Operational earthquake forecasting puts this statement into action with two essential principles. The first is a transparency principle: “authoritative scientific information about future earthquake activity should not be withheld from the public.” One of the most pernicious myths among earthquake paranoids is that the government knows the truth but is hiding it from us. This myth holds enough power to have dragged the Italian seismologists into a manslaughter trial. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The second principle is that “authoritative scientific information about future earthquake activity should be developed independently of its applications to risk assessment and mitigation.” Seismologists will be the first to admit that they aren’t competent to issue alarms, order evacuations, improve building codes, enforce zoning ordinances, and all of the other useful things that scientific knowledge can contribute to. You might call this a firewall principle, because it frees scientists from the threat of persecution. But I prefer to think of it as an inclusion principle: for society to work best, science must have an equal place at the table along with other authorities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To scientists, earthquake forecasting is still in its infancy. But operational systems are being built because the rest of us still want the information, even if scientists think it’s rudimentary. I think we can learn to handle it, just as we handle weather forecasts. And this way the public can grow in knowledge at the same time as scientists learn.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/20765/new-generation-earthquake-forecasting-swings-into-operation-in-italy","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_529","science_550"],"featImg":"science_20767","label":"science"},"science_17522":{"type":"posts","id":"science_17522","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"17522","score":null,"sort":[1400182040000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"progress-in-earthquake-forecasts-may-come-from-studying-foreshocks","title":"Progress in Earthquake Forecasts May Come from Studying Foreshocks","publishDate":1400182040,"format":"aside","headTitle":"Progress in Earthquake Forecasts May Come from Studying Foreshocks | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_17523\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/brodsky-lay.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-17523\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/brodsky-lay.jpg\" alt=\"Foreshocks of subduction quakes\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17523\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Foreshocks small and large (white and orange-white circles respectively) migrated with time toward two recent great earthquakes (red circles). Patterns like this, if supported by measurements of slow seafloor motion, may lead us toward more reliable short-term earthquake forecasts. (AAAS/Science)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Earthquake prediction has been considered a hopeless task by a whole generation of scientists. All the easy approaches have been tried and found to fail. But two prominent seismologists see a hint of progress in a line of research that combines precision monitoring of earthquake trends and subtle, short-lived changes in the seafloor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1255202\">In a short paper in today’s issue of \u003ci>Science\u003c/i>\u003c/a>, UC Santa Cruz seismologists Emily Brodsky and Thorne Lay focus on great earthquakes of magnitude 8 and 9, which are Earth’s largest and most deadly seismic events. They occur beneath the ocean floor around the Pacific Rim and in other places with subduction zones, where one tectonic plate plunges beneath another. The decade since the Sumatra earthquake of December 2004, in the subduction zone west of the Indonesian island arc, has included several more events of that class. Thousands of lives could be saved if we could identify advance hints of such quakes—and the science would be sweet, too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The magnitude-9 Japan earthquake of March 2011 yielded a torrent of new data about subduction quakes. For one thing, this one had foreshocks—small quakes occurring on the same stretch of fault that subsequently fails in the large mainshock. Foreshocks seem to offer promise for forecasting, but nothing about them stands out except that big quakes follow them. In themselves, they’re scientifically sterile. Brodsky and Lay pointed out a hopeful thing, though: according to a 2013 paper, foreshock sequences that are relatively long appear to precede most large subduction earthquakes. Anything that makes sense of foreshocks should apply to these Big Ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A 2012 paper by Japanese scientists pointed out that before the Japan earthquake, the foreshocks migrated toward the site of the mainshock over a three-week period. Another paper looked at data from a network of seafloor instruments and showed that “slow slip events,” a kind of non-earthquake involving temporary gentle motion on a fault, were occurring at the same time. It is this combination of data, earthquake patterns and information about the actual warping of the crust that may point the way forward. (Such an approach led to \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/01/02/seismology-semantics-researchers-announce-a-successful-earthquake-anticipation-in-costa-rica/\">the recent “anticipation” of a subduction quake in Costa Rica\u003c/a>.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brodsky and Lay also point to last month’s magnitude-8 earthquake in northern Chile, another subduction event, which had a similar pattern of migrating foreshocks. People could feel them: “Both the local population and the scientific community reacted to the foreshock sequence with trepidation,” they write, but without any seafloor data or a decent forecasting algorithm “the authorities could only communicate general concern.” Citing a similar migrating earthquake sequence off central Chile in 1997 that turned out not to be foreshocks, Brodsky and Lay argue that without extra data, these sequences mean nothing actionable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’d like to do better than that. The extra data that appeared to be meaningful for Japan came from a network of instruments (nothing more than highly sensitive pressure gauges) on the seafloor. The network is part of Japan’s world-leading program in earthquake science, but the data has to be gathered by a visiting ship weeks or months later. The next frontier is to make these networks send their data in real time, making short-term forecasts at least feasible. And that’s likely to be only the beginning of a long process of study by geoscientists. Brodsky and Lay conclude, “Whether earthquakes are predictable or not is still an open question, but perhaps there is now some cause for optimism.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For someone like me who has watched this story for over 30 years, that’s great news. Subduction-zone earthquakes threaten America from \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2012/02/16/our-corner-of-cascadia/\">Northern California\u003c/a> to \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/10/07/tales-from-the-ghost-forests/\">Washington\u003c/a>, plus \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/03/27/50-years-ago-alaskan-earthquake-was-key-event-for-earth-science/\">Alaska\u003c/a>, and we could use every bit of help before the next Big One.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We can’t see much, but we can see a little. That’s the way the universe always looks before science finds a way to shed light on what once seemed hopelessly dark.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Recent cutting-edge techniques are opening a new approach for earthquake forecasts by matching foreshocks -- small quakes occurring on the same stretch of fault that subsequently fails in the large mainshock -- to changes on the seafloor.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704933656,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":10,"wordCount":730},"headData":{"title":"Progress in Earthquake Forecasts May Come from Studying Foreshocks | KQED","description":"Recent cutting-edge techniques are opening a new approach for earthquake forecasts by matching foreshocks -- small quakes occurring on the same stretch of fault that subsequently fails in the large mainshock -- to changes on the seafloor.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Progress in Earthquake Forecasts May Come from Studying Foreshocks","datePublished":"2014-05-15T19:27:20.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:40:56.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/17522/progress-in-earthquake-forecasts-may-come-from-studying-foreshocks","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_17523\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/brodsky-lay.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-17523\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/05/brodsky-lay.jpg\" alt=\"Foreshocks of subduction quakes\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17523\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Foreshocks small and large (white and orange-white circles respectively) migrated with time toward two recent great earthquakes (red circles). Patterns like this, if supported by measurements of slow seafloor motion, may lead us toward more reliable short-term earthquake forecasts. (AAAS/Science)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Earthquake prediction has been considered a hopeless task by a whole generation of scientists. All the easy approaches have been tried and found to fail. But two prominent seismologists see a hint of progress in a line of research that combines precision monitoring of earthquake trends and subtle, short-lived changes in the seafloor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1255202\">In a short paper in today’s issue of \u003ci>Science\u003c/i>\u003c/a>, UC Santa Cruz seismologists Emily Brodsky and Thorne Lay focus on great earthquakes of magnitude 8 and 9, which are Earth’s largest and most deadly seismic events. They occur beneath the ocean floor around the Pacific Rim and in other places with subduction zones, where one tectonic plate plunges beneath another. The decade since the Sumatra earthquake of December 2004, in the subduction zone west of the Indonesian island arc, has included several more events of that class. Thousands of lives could be saved if we could identify advance hints of such quakes—and the science would be sweet, too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The magnitude-9 Japan earthquake of March 2011 yielded a torrent of new data about subduction quakes. For one thing, this one had foreshocks—small quakes occurring on the same stretch of fault that subsequently fails in the large mainshock. Foreshocks seem to offer promise for forecasting, but nothing about them stands out except that big quakes follow them. In themselves, they’re scientifically sterile. Brodsky and Lay pointed out a hopeful thing, though: according to a 2013 paper, foreshock sequences that are relatively long appear to precede most large subduction earthquakes. Anything that makes sense of foreshocks should apply to these Big Ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A 2012 paper by Japanese scientists pointed out that before the Japan earthquake, the foreshocks migrated toward the site of the mainshock over a three-week period. Another paper looked at data from a network of seafloor instruments and showed that “slow slip events,” a kind of non-earthquake involving temporary gentle motion on a fault, were occurring at the same time. It is this combination of data, earthquake patterns and information about the actual warping of the crust that may point the way forward. (Such an approach led to \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/01/02/seismology-semantics-researchers-announce-a-successful-earthquake-anticipation-in-costa-rica/\">the recent “anticipation” of a subduction quake in Costa Rica\u003c/a>.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brodsky and Lay also point to last month’s magnitude-8 earthquake in northern Chile, another subduction event, which had a similar pattern of migrating foreshocks. People could feel them: “Both the local population and the scientific community reacted to the foreshock sequence with trepidation,” they write, but without any seafloor data or a decent forecasting algorithm “the authorities could only communicate general concern.” Citing a similar migrating earthquake sequence off central Chile in 1997 that turned out not to be foreshocks, Brodsky and Lay argue that without extra data, these sequences mean nothing actionable.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’d like to do better than that. The extra data that appeared to be meaningful for Japan came from a network of instruments (nothing more than highly sensitive pressure gauges) on the seafloor. The network is part of Japan’s world-leading program in earthquake science, but the data has to be gathered by a visiting ship weeks or months later. The next frontier is to make these networks send their data in real time, making short-term forecasts at least feasible. And that’s likely to be only the beginning of a long process of study by geoscientists. Brodsky and Lay conclude, “Whether earthquakes are predictable or not is still an open question, but perhaps there is now some cause for optimism.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For someone like me who has watched this story for over 30 years, that’s great news. Subduction-zone earthquakes threaten America from \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2012/02/16/our-corner-of-cascadia/\">Northern California\u003c/a> to \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/10/07/tales-from-the-ghost-forests/\">Washington\u003c/a>, plus \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/03/27/50-years-ago-alaskan-earthquake-was-key-event-for-earth-science/\">Alaska\u003c/a>, and we could use every bit of help before the next Big One.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We can’t see much, but we can see a little. That’s the way the universe always looks before science finds a way to shed light on what once seemed hopelessly dark.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/17522/progress-in-earthquake-forecasts-may-come-from-studying-foreshocks","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_529","science_427"],"featImg":"science_17523","label":"science"},"science_12691":{"type":"posts","id":"science_12691","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"12691","score":null,"sort":[1388696541000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"seismology-semantics-researchers-announce-a-successful-earthquake-anticipation-in-costa-rica","title":"Seismology Semantics: Researchers Successfully 'Anticipate' Costa Rican Earthquake","publishDate":1388696541,"format":"aside","headTitle":"Seismology Semantics: Researchers Successfully ‘Anticipate’ Costa Rican Earthquake | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12694\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costaricasubsidence.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12694\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costaricasubsidence.jpg\" alt=\"coastal subsidence\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Coastal subsidence on the Nicoya Peninsula, shown in this washed-out sea wall, was evidence used in the “anticipation” of a major earthquake that occurred in 2012. Image from Protti et al., “Nicoya earthquake rupture anticipated by geodetic measurement of the locked surface,” Via Nature.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Earthquake prediction is considered a scientifically hopeless task, yet gradually we’ve been learning useful things. \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2038.html\">In a paper published by Nature Geoscience last month\u003c/a>, a team of researchers announced that they had “anticipated” a large earthquake in Costa Rica in fair detail.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In this branch of seismology, a lot rides on the exact language you use. A “prediction” is an announcement that an earthquake of size X will happen on date Y in region Z. Nobody in the profession does that, and the amateurs who do never have results that stand up to scrutiny. The most any seismologist will do is issue a “forecast,” similar to a weather forecast in that it consists of a set of probabilities. For an example, see the \u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/\">Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast\u003c/a>, a cautious and exhaustively detailed look ahead at the 30-year odds by a large team of federal, state and academic researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An “anticipation” is something more specific than a forecast, and it succeeded in a special place—the Nicoya Peninsula of Costa Rica. Led by \u003ca href=\"http://geophysics.eas.gatech.edu/people/anewman/\">Andrew Newman\u003c/a> of the Georgia Institute of Technology, the team took an approach that was counted out 20 years ago and made it work with better methods.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The history of quake prediction is littered with failures, one of which is the “seismic gap” hypothesis. This is a common-sense explanation that can be stated in plain language: large earthquake-producing faults appear to rupture in distinct segments, and for any given segment it should be straightforward to figure out the strain building up in it since the last earthquake that ruptured it thoroughly and say how close we’re getting to its next “big one.” There are some successes from that approach (the 1989 Loma Prieta quake fit the model), but as a global tool it’s repeatedly been found wanting, particularly for the largest events occurring on offshore megathrust faults (the 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Japan quakes, both giant events of magnitude 9, were of this type).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem was that until recently, our only tool to see what’s happening on these fault segments was seismicity: the smaller earthquakes going on all the time. But there’s no obvious pattern of seismicity that signals the state of strain on a fault. That would have been too easy. Even a fault that looks like it should be well-behaved doesn’t behave that well. For instance, earthquakes at Parkfield, California, were happening pretty close to clockwork fashion, every 22 years on average, when scientists decided to set up instruments and catch the next 22-year event sometime around 1988. It didn’t happen until 2004—so much for that prediction.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A more promising way to see strain on a megathrust fault is to measure changes in its shape. Imagine a wedge of rubber being pushed, pointed edge first, up a rubber ramp. They’re stuck together by friction, and eventually the friction will be overcome and the wedge will jerk upward on the ramp—that’s the big one. But as the energy between the two block rises during the “interseismic period” between quakes, they will warp. The wedge will bulge on top, for instance. And we can use GPS technology—the same thing our cars navigate with—to measure this change with millimeter precision.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Newman’s team chose Costa Rica’s Nicoya Peninsula because the ground directly above the earthquake rupture zone is on dry land, a rare exception to the usual situation. They noted that the last three “big ones” (magnitude 7.5 or so) there were in 1853, 1900 and 1950 in a nice-looking “earthquake cycle.” And the pattern of large quakes in the region left a nice-looking “Nicoya gap” on the map.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12692\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costa-ricaEQgap.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-12692\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12692\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costa-ricaEQgap.png\" alt=\"Nicoya seismic gap\" width=\"600\" height=\"477\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Seismic activity of Costa Rica, from Feng et al., “Active deformation near the Nicoya Peninsula, northwestern Costa Rica, between 1996 and 2010: Interseismic megathrust coupling,” JGR 117, B06407 (\u003ca href=\"http://geophysics.eas.gatech.edu/people/anewman/research/papers/Feng_etal_JGR_2012.pdf\">PDF\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>They outfitted the peninsula with a network of GPS stations starting in 1996. They also observed things like coastal subsidence. In 2010 they looked at their data and wrote a paper describing the shape of the “stuck” patch—two stuck patches, actually—on the underlying megathrust fault. “A potential \u003cem>M\u003csub>w\u003c/sub>\u003c/em> 7.8 1950-type earthquake can be expected from the two fully coupled patches of our best fit interseismic megathrust coupling model,” they wrote. That paper came out in the \u003cem>Journal of Geophysical Research\u003c/em> in late 2012—and in the meantime, the earthquake they had anticipated occurred, a magnitude 7.6 event on September 5.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2038.html\">Last month’s \u003cem>Nature\u003c/em> paper\u003c/a> compared the team’s 2012 anticipation with the actual earthquake and found a decent match.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12693\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costa-ricaEQmap.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-12693\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12693\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costa-ricaEQmap.png\" alt=\"Predicted quake versus real quake\" width=\"600\" height=\"384\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Anticipated (left) and actual (right) earthquake beneath the Nicoya Peninsula. From Protti et al., “Nicoya earthquake rupture anticipated by geodetic measurement of the locked surface,” ‘Nature’ doi:10.1038/NGE02038\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is pretty darn good. This feat points to the great value of repeating it at other seismic gaps, and megathrust zones in general, by outfitting them with GPS instruments and supporting the long-term collection of data from them. The challenge is using GPS technology on the seafloor. It’s just a fingertip beyond the state of the art, as Newman explained \u003ca href=\"http://geophysics.eas.gatech.edu/people/anewman/research/papers/Newman_Nature_2011.pdf\">in a Comment in \u003cem>Nature\u003c/em> in 2011\u003c/a>, and could revolutionize our ability to anticipate—that’s \u003cem>anticipate\u003c/em>—tsunamis, too.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Coastal subsidence and precision GPS data helped scientists \"anticipate\" a major earthquake in Coast Rica, placing us one small step closer to earthquake prediction.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704934451,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":12,"wordCount":996},"headData":{"title":"Seismology Semantics: Researchers Successfully 'Anticipate' Costa Rican Earthquake | KQED","description":"Coastal subsidence and precision GPS data helped scientists "anticipate" a major earthquake in Coast Rica, placing us one small step closer to earthquake prediction.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Seismology Semantics: Researchers Successfully 'Anticipate' Costa Rican Earthquake","datePublished":"2014-01-02T21:02:21.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:54:11.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/12691/seismology-semantics-researchers-announce-a-successful-earthquake-anticipation-in-costa-rica","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12694\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costaricasubsidence.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12694\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costaricasubsidence.jpg\" alt=\"coastal subsidence\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Coastal subsidence on the Nicoya Peninsula, shown in this washed-out sea wall, was evidence used in the “anticipation” of a major earthquake that occurred in 2012. Image from Protti et al., “Nicoya earthquake rupture anticipated by geodetic measurement of the locked surface,” Via Nature.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Earthquake prediction is considered a scientifically hopeless task, yet gradually we’ve been learning useful things. \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2038.html\">In a paper published by Nature Geoscience last month\u003c/a>, a team of researchers announced that they had “anticipated” a large earthquake in Costa Rica in fair detail.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In this branch of seismology, a lot rides on the exact language you use. A “prediction” is an announcement that an earthquake of size X will happen on date Y in region Z. Nobody in the profession does that, and the amateurs who do never have results that stand up to scrutiny. The most any seismologist will do is issue a “forecast,” similar to a weather forecast in that it consists of a set of probabilities. For an example, see the \u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/\">Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast\u003c/a>, a cautious and exhaustively detailed look ahead at the 30-year odds by a large team of federal, state and academic researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An “anticipation” is something more specific than a forecast, and it succeeded in a special place—the Nicoya Peninsula of Costa Rica. Led by \u003ca href=\"http://geophysics.eas.gatech.edu/people/anewman/\">Andrew Newman\u003c/a> of the Georgia Institute of Technology, the team took an approach that was counted out 20 years ago and made it work with better methods.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The history of quake prediction is littered with failures, one of which is the “seismic gap” hypothesis. This is a common-sense explanation that can be stated in plain language: large earthquake-producing faults appear to rupture in distinct segments, and for any given segment it should be straightforward to figure out the strain building up in it since the last earthquake that ruptured it thoroughly and say how close we’re getting to its next “big one.” There are some successes from that approach (the 1989 Loma Prieta quake fit the model), but as a global tool it’s repeatedly been found wanting, particularly for the largest events occurring on offshore megathrust faults (the 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Japan quakes, both giant events of magnitude 9, were of this type).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The problem was that until recently, our only tool to see what’s happening on these fault segments was seismicity: the smaller earthquakes going on all the time. But there’s no obvious pattern of seismicity that signals the state of strain on a fault. That would have been too easy. Even a fault that looks like it should be well-behaved doesn’t behave that well. For instance, earthquakes at Parkfield, California, were happening pretty close to clockwork fashion, every 22 years on average, when scientists decided to set up instruments and catch the next 22-year event sometime around 1988. It didn’t happen until 2004—so much for that prediction.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A more promising way to see strain on a megathrust fault is to measure changes in its shape. Imagine a wedge of rubber being pushed, pointed edge first, up a rubber ramp. They’re stuck together by friction, and eventually the friction will be overcome and the wedge will jerk upward on the ramp—that’s the big one. But as the energy between the two block rises during the “interseismic period” between quakes, they will warp. The wedge will bulge on top, for instance. And we can use GPS technology—the same thing our cars navigate with—to measure this change with millimeter precision.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Newman’s team chose Costa Rica’s Nicoya Peninsula because the ground directly above the earthquake rupture zone is on dry land, a rare exception to the usual situation. They noted that the last three “big ones” (magnitude 7.5 or so) there were in 1853, 1900 and 1950 in a nice-looking “earthquake cycle.” And the pattern of large quakes in the region left a nice-looking “Nicoya gap” on the map.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12692\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costa-ricaEQgap.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-12692\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12692\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costa-ricaEQgap.png\" alt=\"Nicoya seismic gap\" width=\"600\" height=\"477\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Seismic activity of Costa Rica, from Feng et al., “Active deformation near the Nicoya Peninsula, northwestern Costa Rica, between 1996 and 2010: Interseismic megathrust coupling,” JGR 117, B06407 (\u003ca href=\"http://geophysics.eas.gatech.edu/people/anewman/research/papers/Feng_etal_JGR_2012.pdf\">PDF\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>They outfitted the peninsula with a network of GPS stations starting in 1996. They also observed things like coastal subsidence. In 2010 they looked at their data and wrote a paper describing the shape of the “stuck” patch—two stuck patches, actually—on the underlying megathrust fault. “A potential \u003cem>M\u003csub>w\u003c/sub>\u003c/em> 7.8 1950-type earthquake can be expected from the two fully coupled patches of our best fit interseismic megathrust coupling model,” they wrote. That paper came out in the \u003cem>Journal of Geophysical Research\u003c/em> in late 2012—and in the meantime, the earthquake they had anticipated occurred, a magnitude 7.6 event on September 5.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2038.html\">Last month’s \u003cem>Nature\u003c/em> paper\u003c/a> compared the team’s 2012 anticipation with the actual earthquake and found a decent match.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_12693\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costa-ricaEQmap.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-12693\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12693\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/01/costa-ricaEQmap.png\" alt=\"Predicted quake versus real quake\" width=\"600\" height=\"384\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Anticipated (left) and actual (right) earthquake beneath the Nicoya Peninsula. From Protti et al., “Nicoya earthquake rupture anticipated by geodetic measurement of the locked surface,” ‘Nature’ doi:10.1038/NGE02038\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is pretty darn good. This feat points to the great value of repeating it at other seismic gaps, and megathrust zones in general, by outfitting them with GPS instruments and supporting the long-term collection of data from them. The challenge is using GPS technology on the seafloor. It’s just a fingertip beyond the state of the art, as Newman explained \u003ca href=\"http://geophysics.eas.gatech.edu/people/anewman/research/papers/Newman_Nature_2011.pdf\">in a Comment in \u003cem>Nature\u003c/em> in 2011\u003c/a>, and could revolutionize our ability to anticipate—that’s \u003cem>anticipate\u003c/em>—tsunamis, too.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/12691/seismology-semantics-researchers-announce-a-successful-earthquake-anticipation-in-costa-rica","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_529","science_427","science_550"],"featImg":"science_12694","label":"science"},"science_9845":{"type":"posts","id":"science_9845","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"9845","score":null,"sort":[1381433150000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"the-science-of-californias-seismic-pests-or-earthquake-swarms","title":"The Science of California's Seismic Pests, or Earthquake \"Swarms\"","publishDate":1381433150,"format":"aside","headTitle":"The Science of California’s Seismic Pests, or Earthquake “Swarms” | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>Earlier this week, a cluster of dozens of little earthquakes occurred under the Salton Sea in southernmost California over the course of a couple of days. Most were too tiny to feel, and the largest—of magnitude 2.3—wasn’t big enough to be remarked upon. Specialists call this kind of thing an earthquake swarm, and while it seems like swarms ought to be telling us something, nobody yet has figured out what.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_9846\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/10/saltonswarm.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-9846\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9846\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/10/saltonswarm.png\" alt=\"Salton Sea earthquake swarm\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Seismicity in the southern Salton Sea during the week (yellow dots) and day (orange dots) before October 9, from the \u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#\">U.S. Geological Survey earthquake viewer\u003c/a>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>There are many kinds of movements going on in the deep earth, only some of which are earthquakes. (Others include \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/05/12/deep-jiggles-with-distant-triggers/\">tremor\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/09/05/how-californias-warping-microplate-makes-its-faults-creep/\">creep\u003c/a> and something in between called slow earthquakes.) Among earthquakes proper, the biggest ones are better understood than the rest—they’re big ruptures, called mainshocks— followed by a host of aftershocks that are best thought of as the mainshock rupture settling down to a relaxed state. Mainshocks may have a few foreshocks as well. Think of foreshocks like the crackling of a tree limb before it breaks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Small earthquakes often occur in bursts. One kind of burst is the familiar “mainshock-aftershock sequence”, like a skyrocket with a large explosion followed by lots of littler ones. Earthquake swarms are the other kind. They’re more like a set of random-sounding drumbeats that start up, go on for a while without reaching a climax and then taper off to a stop. They happen all over the world in all kinds of tectonic settings. Swarms can include quakes up to magnitude 6 or so, big enough to do serious damage. But most earthquake swarms are either unfelt or mildly disquieting at worst. (Actually, so are most mainshocks.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquake swarms were first noticed almost a century ago, and researchers were quick to associate them with volcanic regions, where movements of magma underground would be an obvious cause. As our earthquake records have grown, we’ve found swarms in all kinds of geologic settings. In a \u003ca href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004034\">pair\u003c/a> of \u003ca href=\"http://earthweb.ess.washington.edu/vidale/Reprints/GRL/2006_Vidale_Boyle_GRL.pdf\">papers\u003c/a> in 2006, John Vidale studied hundreds of swarms in southern California and Japan and found that they occurred everywhere, not just near volcanoes. He and his colleagues found that the majority of earthquake bursts were a blend between pure mainshock-aftershock sequences and typical swarms. It comes as no surprise that Earth doesn’t give us many clean test cases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers have proposed two main mechanisms for earthquake swarms. One is that underground fluids under high pressure are cracking the rocks in small events. Like people in a crowded bus making room for a group of boarding passengers, the rocks respond to the migration of the fluids and their associated pressures. \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EO410001/pdf\">A recent study in Italy\u003c/a> slightly favored that explanation for a swarm of over 5000 earthquakes that has been going on since 2010. This also makes sense for swarms that occur beneath volcanoes. In the Bay Area, we have a constant artificial earthquake swarm around \u003ca href=\"http://www.geysers.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Geysers\u003c/a>, where a large geothermal power plant is constantly pumping water down onto superheated volcanic rocks and harvesting the steam to generate electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other explanation is that the swarms are a response to episodes of deep-seated creep (motion without ruptures) along major faults. A \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04214.x/abstract\">2009 paper by Emily Roland and Jeffrey McGuire\u003c/a> looked at the Salton Sea area, which has lots of earthquake swarms and the same kind of transform faults that characterize the whole San Andreas fault zone. They found that seismic activity spread along the surface of the faults at 100 to 1000 meters per hour, which matches the behavior of short-lived creep episodes. They also found that the ruptures were slower than regular earthquakes and produced a smaller drop in stress. They concluded that “these systematic properties could be used to improve real-time hazard estimates by detecting the existence of a swarm-like sequence relatively early in its evolution.” That would be a nice thing to know, especially if the work can be applied to Bay Area earthquake swarms on the Hayward fault.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In earth science, it’s usually a good bet that when theorists offer two mechanisms for something, neither one will emerge as the single explanation. Instead, they’ll be complementary. The history of geology suggests that we eventually find, like that old TV ad said, “You’re both right!”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Scientists are creeping their way toward better understanding of earthquake swarms, those annoying and sometimes damaging seismic pests we get in California.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704934909,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":9,"wordCount":755},"headData":{"title":"The Science of California's Seismic Pests, or Earthquake \"Swarms\" | KQED","description":"Scientists are creeping their way toward better understanding of earthquake swarms, those annoying and sometimes damaging seismic pests we get in California.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"The Science of California's Seismic Pests, or Earthquake \"Swarms\"","datePublished":"2013-10-10T19:25:50.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T01:01:49.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/9845/the-science-of-californias-seismic-pests-or-earthquake-swarms","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Earlier this week, a cluster of dozens of little earthquakes occurred under the Salton Sea in southernmost California over the course of a couple of days. Most were too tiny to feel, and the largest—of magnitude 2.3—wasn’t big enough to be remarked upon. Specialists call this kind of thing an earthquake swarm, and while it seems like swarms ought to be telling us something, nobody yet has figured out what.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_9846\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/10/saltonswarm.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-9846\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9846\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/10/saltonswarm.png\" alt=\"Salton Sea earthquake swarm\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Seismicity in the southern Salton Sea during the week (yellow dots) and day (orange dots) before October 9, from the \u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#\">U.S. Geological Survey earthquake viewer\u003c/a>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>There are many kinds of movements going on in the deep earth, only some of which are earthquakes. (Others include \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/05/12/deep-jiggles-with-distant-triggers/\">tremor\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/09/05/how-californias-warping-microplate-makes-its-faults-creep/\">creep\u003c/a> and something in between called slow earthquakes.) Among earthquakes proper, the biggest ones are better understood than the rest—they’re big ruptures, called mainshocks— followed by a host of aftershocks that are best thought of as the mainshock rupture settling down to a relaxed state. Mainshocks may have a few foreshocks as well. Think of foreshocks like the crackling of a tree limb before it breaks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Small earthquakes often occur in bursts. One kind of burst is the familiar “mainshock-aftershock sequence”, like a skyrocket with a large explosion followed by lots of littler ones. Earthquake swarms are the other kind. They’re more like a set of random-sounding drumbeats that start up, go on for a while without reaching a climax and then taper off to a stop. They happen all over the world in all kinds of tectonic settings. Swarms can include quakes up to magnitude 6 or so, big enough to do serious damage. But most earthquake swarms are either unfelt or mildly disquieting at worst. (Actually, so are most mainshocks.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquake swarms were first noticed almost a century ago, and researchers were quick to associate them with volcanic regions, where movements of magma underground would be an obvious cause. As our earthquake records have grown, we’ve found swarms in all kinds of geologic settings. In a \u003ca href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004034\">pair\u003c/a> of \u003ca href=\"http://earthweb.ess.washington.edu/vidale/Reprints/GRL/2006_Vidale_Boyle_GRL.pdf\">papers\u003c/a> in 2006, John Vidale studied hundreds of swarms in southern California and Japan and found that they occurred everywhere, not just near volcanoes. He and his colleagues found that the majority of earthquake bursts were a blend between pure mainshock-aftershock sequences and typical swarms. It comes as no surprise that Earth doesn’t give us many clean test cases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers have proposed two main mechanisms for earthquake swarms. One is that underground fluids under high pressure are cracking the rocks in small events. Like people in a crowded bus making room for a group of boarding passengers, the rocks respond to the migration of the fluids and their associated pressures. \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EO410001/pdf\">A recent study in Italy\u003c/a> slightly favored that explanation for a swarm of over 5000 earthquakes that has been going on since 2010. This also makes sense for swarms that occur beneath volcanoes. In the Bay Area, we have a constant artificial earthquake swarm around \u003ca href=\"http://www.geysers.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Geysers\u003c/a>, where a large geothermal power plant is constantly pumping water down onto superheated volcanic rocks and harvesting the steam to generate electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other explanation is that the swarms are a response to episodes of deep-seated creep (motion without ruptures) along major faults. A \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04214.x/abstract\">2009 paper by Emily Roland and Jeffrey McGuire\u003c/a> looked at the Salton Sea area, which has lots of earthquake swarms and the same kind of transform faults that characterize the whole San Andreas fault zone. They found that seismic activity spread along the surface of the faults at 100 to 1000 meters per hour, which matches the behavior of short-lived creep episodes. They also found that the ruptures were slower than regular earthquakes and produced a smaller drop in stress. They concluded that “these systematic properties could be used to improve real-time hazard estimates by detecting the existence of a swarm-like sequence relatively early in its evolution.” That would be a nice thing to know, especially if the work can be applied to Bay Area earthquake swarms on the Hayward fault.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In earth science, it’s usually a good bet that when theorists offer two mechanisms for something, neither one will emerge as the single explanation. Instead, they’ll be complementary. The history of geology suggests that we eventually find, like that old TV ad said, “You’re both right!”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/9845/the-science-of-californias-seismic-pests-or-earthquake-swarms","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_529","science_427","science_654","science_550"],"featImg":"science_9846","label":"science"},"science_6485":{"type":"posts","id":"science_6485","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"6485","score":null,"sort":[1375384471000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"the-temptation-to-treat-hunches-as-science-in-earthquake-prediction-research","title":"The Temptation to Treat Hunches As Science in Earthquake Prediction Research","publishDate":1375384471,"format":"aside","headTitle":"The Temptation to Treat Hunches As Science in Earthquake Prediction Research | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6486\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/sunspots.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6486\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/sunspots.jpg\" alt=\"sunspots, washington dc\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6486\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photo courtesy \u003ca href=\"http://www.flickr.com/people/ep_jhu/\">ep_jhu\u003c/a> of Flickr under Creative Commons license\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>I’ve been following earth science closely for many years through the news and in the literature. One thing I can say confidently is that it is both very human and inhuman. The human side is obvious: geoscientists are some of the most interesting (and interested) people I know. But doing science properly means quashing some of our most human traits as we subject our ideas to cold statistical tests. Case in point: earthquake prediction studies. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Humans have a wonderful ability to spot patterns in seemingly random information. We acquired the knack long ago because it helped us spot zebras in the savanna and tigers in the grass. It’s amusing because it lets us see faces in clouds. In science, our pattern-seeking ability is both a tool and a handicap: it leads us to exciting hunches, but glues us to wrong ideas despite our best efforts. The occurrence of earthquakes is so troubling and mysterious that it takes a great effort to stifle our human reactions and pay attention to what the cold numbers and their unintuitive statistics say. I take as today’s topic the relationship between earthquakes and sunspots.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The sun-Earth interface is an exceptionally energetic region, extending over thousands of kilometers from the upper atmosphere into outer space. It conducts electricity and generates complex magnetic disturbances. It’s as changeable and chaotic as the static heard between radio stations or the shimmering displays of the aurora. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It stands to reason that such a sensitive region would respond to changes from below the Earth’s surface just as it does to changes from above. You would think that the release of earthquake energy, in the electrically conducting deep crust, would have effects on this region too. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But “It stands to reason…” and “You would think that…” are hunches, only the beginning of science. Next comes the inhuman part: holding off on coming to conclusions and running the numbers as carefully as we know how. A trickle of scientific papers have noted apparent relationships between various measures of solar activity and earthquakes. But a recent critique of these papers, \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50211/abstract\">published in March in \u003ci>Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/i>\u003c/a>, noted that all of them fell short in one way or another: they used partial sets of data or focused on one region, for instance. They went beyond “It stands to reason,” but only as far as finding an anomaly, something strange—that is to say, “Hmm, look at this.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The paper’s authors went on to do a textbook, double-checked study comparing the solar records to the earthquake catalogs, including statistical checks and found nothing that chance alone couldn’t explain just as well. (\u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/qt/earthquakes-solar-activity.htm\">See my more detailed explanation here.\u003c/a>)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, most of us find it terribly tempting to go from “Hmm, look at this” to “Hey, look at that.” And once someone who seems to know what they’re talking about does that, many more people will take assertion as certainty. For a good example, consider the BBC’s weather blogger Paul Hudson. He’s a trained meteorologist who can explain scientific thinking well. \u003ca href=\"http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Have-weather-patterns-really-been-unusual\">Last month, for instance\u003c/a>, you can see him deftly handling a common question among the British public: isn’t our summer weather odd? No, he answers, it’s a phenomenon well-known among his fellow scientists: the North Atlantic Oscillation. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But then go back on his blog to \u003ca href=\"http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/03/is-solar-activity-to-blame-for.shtml\">the day of the magnitude-9 Tohoku earthquake in March 2011\u003c/a>. Not being a seismologist, Hudson fell back on human habits: he remarked upon recent sunspot activity, cited a few unnamed papers, and quoted a fellow opinionater in support of his hunch. On this subject, he scored no better than the average layman. Indeed, I think that posting his off-the-cuff musings on the very day of that massive earthquake under the headline “Is solar activity to blame for Japan’s massive earthquake?” was not responsible journalism. Fortunately, the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines\">Betteridge-Marr law of headlines\u003c/a> is our friend: “Any headline which ends in a question mark can be answered by the word ‘no.'”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The science of earthquake prediction is fraught with the human tendency to seek conclusions beyond the reach of the data. In this setting, even the fruitless hypothesis of sunspots is seductive.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704935369,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":10,"wordCount":722},"headData":{"title":"The Temptation to Treat Hunches As Science in Earthquake Prediction Research | KQED","description":"The science of earthquake prediction is fraught with the human tendency to seek conclusions beyond the reach of the data. In this setting, even the fruitless hypothesis of sunspots is seductive.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"The Temptation to Treat Hunches As Science in Earthquake Prediction Research","datePublished":"2013-08-01T19:14:31.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T01:09:29.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/6485/the-temptation-to-treat-hunches-as-science-in-earthquake-prediction-research","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_6486\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/sunspots.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-6486\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/08/sunspots.jpg\" alt=\"sunspots, washington dc\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-6486\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photo courtesy \u003ca href=\"http://www.flickr.com/people/ep_jhu/\">ep_jhu\u003c/a> of Flickr under Creative Commons license\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>I’ve been following earth science closely for many years through the news and in the literature. One thing I can say confidently is that it is both very human and inhuman. The human side is obvious: geoscientists are some of the most interesting (and interested) people I know. But doing science properly means quashing some of our most human traits as we subject our ideas to cold statistical tests. Case in point: earthquake prediction studies. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Humans have a wonderful ability to spot patterns in seemingly random information. We acquired the knack long ago because it helped us spot zebras in the savanna and tigers in the grass. It’s amusing because it lets us see faces in clouds. In science, our pattern-seeking ability is both a tool and a handicap: it leads us to exciting hunches, but glues us to wrong ideas despite our best efforts. The occurrence of earthquakes is so troubling and mysterious that it takes a great effort to stifle our human reactions and pay attention to what the cold numbers and their unintuitive statistics say. I take as today’s topic the relationship between earthquakes and sunspots.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The sun-Earth interface is an exceptionally energetic region, extending over thousands of kilometers from the upper atmosphere into outer space. It conducts electricity and generates complex magnetic disturbances. It’s as changeable and chaotic as the static heard between radio stations or the shimmering displays of the aurora. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It stands to reason that such a sensitive region would respond to changes from below the Earth’s surface just as it does to changes from above. You would think that the release of earthquake energy, in the electrically conducting deep crust, would have effects on this region too. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But “It stands to reason…” and “You would think that…” are hunches, only the beginning of science. Next comes the inhuman part: holding off on coming to conclusions and running the numbers as carefully as we know how. A trickle of scientific papers have noted apparent relationships between various measures of solar activity and earthquakes. But a recent critique of these papers, \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50211/abstract\">published in March in \u003ci>Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/i>\u003c/a>, noted that all of them fell short in one way or another: they used partial sets of data or focused on one region, for instance. They went beyond “It stands to reason,” but only as far as finding an anomaly, something strange—that is to say, “Hmm, look at this.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The paper’s authors went on to do a textbook, double-checked study comparing the solar records to the earthquake catalogs, including statistical checks and found nothing that chance alone couldn’t explain just as well. (\u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/eq_prediction/qt/earthquakes-solar-activity.htm\">See my more detailed explanation here.\u003c/a>)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, most of us find it terribly tempting to go from “Hmm, look at this” to “Hey, look at that.” And once someone who seems to know what they’re talking about does that, many more people will take assertion as certainty. For a good example, consider the BBC’s weather blogger Paul Hudson. He’s a trained meteorologist who can explain scientific thinking well. \u003ca href=\"http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Have-weather-patterns-really-been-unusual\">Last month, for instance\u003c/a>, you can see him deftly handling a common question among the British public: isn’t our summer weather odd? No, he answers, it’s a phenomenon well-known among his fellow scientists: the North Atlantic Oscillation. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But then go back on his blog to \u003ca href=\"http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/03/is-solar-activity-to-blame-for.shtml\">the day of the magnitude-9 Tohoku earthquake in March 2011\u003c/a>. Not being a seismologist, Hudson fell back on human habits: he remarked upon recent sunspot activity, cited a few unnamed papers, and quoted a fellow opinionater in support of his hunch. On this subject, he scored no better than the average layman. Indeed, I think that posting his off-the-cuff musings on the very day of that massive earthquake under the headline “Is solar activity to blame for Japan’s massive earthquake?” was not responsible journalism. Fortunately, the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines\">Betteridge-Marr law of headlines\u003c/a> is our friend: “Any headline which ends in a question mark can be answered by the word ‘no.'”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/6485/the-temptation-to-treat-hunches-as-science-in-earthquake-prediction-research","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_28","science_38"],"tags":["science_529","science_427","science_218","science_309","science_138"],"featImg":"science_6486","label":"science"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.","airtime":"SUN 2pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.possible.fm/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Possible"},"link":"/radio/program/possible","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/possible/id1677184070","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/730YpdUSNlMyPQwNnyjp4k"}},"1a":{"id":"1a","title":"1A","info":"1A is home to the national conversation. 1A brings on great guests and frames the best debate in ways that make you think, share and engage.","airtime":"MON-THU 11pm-12am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/1a.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://the1a.org/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/1a","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=1188724250&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/1A-p947376/","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510316/podcast.xml"}},"all-things-considered":{"id":"all-things-considered","title":"All Things Considered","info":"Every weekday, \u003cem>All Things Considered\u003c/em> hosts Robert Siegel, Audie Cornish, Ari Shapiro, and Kelly McEvers present the program's trademark mix of news, interviews, commentaries, reviews, and offbeat features. 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But is this once sleepy suburb ready for them?","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/American-Suburb-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"13"},"link":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?mt=2&id=1287748328","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/American-Suburb-p1086805/","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkMzMDExODgxNjA5"}},"baycurious":{"id":"baycurious","title":"Bay Curious","tagline":"Exploring the Bay Area, one question at a time","info":"KQED’s new podcast, Bay Curious, gets to the bottom of the mysteries — both profound and peculiar — that give the Bay Area its unique identity. And we’ll do it with your help! You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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