Transforming San Francisco Into a Model of Disaster Preparedness
Are Wetlands Nature's Best Defense Against Sea Level Rise?
Grappling with Rising Tides
San Francisco a Test Case for Coping with Rising Seas
Slideshow: An Early Fall Flight Around the Bay
Dry and Salted
California's Deadlocked Delta: Is Carbon Farming the Future?
Six Bay Area Cities Play the Waiting Game
Sponsored
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Her science radio stories appear on KQED and NPR.\r\n\r\nEmail her at astanden@kqed.org","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"news","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"futureofyou","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"stateofhealth","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Amy Standen | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/amystanden"},"laurensommer":{"type":"authors","id":"239","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"239","found":true},"name":"Lauren Sommer","firstName":"Lauren","lastName":"Sommer","slug":"laurensommer","email":"lsommer@kqed.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":"KQED Contributor","bio":"Lauren is a radio reporter formerly covering environment, water, and energy for KQED Science. As part of her day job, she has scaled Sierra Nevada peaks, run from charging elephant seals, and desperately tried to get her sea legs - all in pursuit of good radio. Her work has appeared on Marketplace, Living on Earth, Science Friday and NPR's Morning Edition and All Things Considered. You can find her on Twitter at \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/lesommer\">@lesommer\u003c/a>.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/33aa3772bb86c6ad45b8aca6a238bbdf?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"news","roles":["author"]},{"site":"science","roles":["editor","manage_content_types","manage_taxonomies"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["editor"]}],"headData":{"title":"Lauren Sommer | KQED","description":"KQED Contributor","ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/33aa3772bb86c6ad45b8aca6a238bbdf?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/33aa3772bb86c6ad45b8aca6a238bbdf?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/laurensommer"},"lindseyhoshaw":{"type":"authors","id":"5432","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"5432","found":true},"name":"Lindsey Hoshaw","firstName":"Lindsey","lastName":"Hoshaw","slug":"lindseyhoshaw","email":"lhoshaw@kqed.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":"KQED Contributor","bio":"Lindsey Hoshaw is a former interactive producer for KQED Science. Before joining KQED, Lindsey was a science correspondent for The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Forbes and Scientific American. On Twitter @lindseyhoshaw","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/274b07694c998eaa8f26cfabaa941186?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":"lindseyhoshaw","facebook":"lindsey.hoshaw.9","instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"arts","roles":["author"]},{"site":"news","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"futureofyou","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"bayareabites","roles":["contributor"]},{"site":"stateofhealth","roles":["author"]},{"site":"science","roles":["edit_theme_options","subscriber"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["edit_post_subscriptions","edit_usergroups","unfiltered_html","unfiltered_upload","leadcoordinator","editor"]},{"site":"food","roles":["contributor"]}],"headData":{"title":"Lindsey Hoshaw | KQED","description":"KQED Contributor","ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/274b07694c998eaa8f26cfabaa941186?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/274b07694c998eaa8f26cfabaa941186?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/lindseyhoshaw"},"sharolembry":{"type":"authors","id":"6328","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"6328","found":true},"name":"Sharol Nelson-Embry","firstName":"Sharol","lastName":"Nelson-Embry","slug":"sharolembry","email":"bobsharol@gmail.com","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Sharol Nelson-Embry is the Supervising Naturalist at the Crab Cove Visitor Center & Aquarium on San Francisco Bay in Alameda. Crab Cove is part of the East Bay Regional Park District, one of the largest and oldest regional park agencies in the nation. She graduated from Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo with a degree in Natural Resources Management and an epiphany that connecting kids with nature was her destiny. She's been rooted in the Bay Area since 1991 after working at nature centers and outdoor science schools around our fair state. She loves the great variety of habitats stretching from the Bay shoreline to the redwoods, lakes, and hills. Sharol enjoys connecting people to nature with articles in local newspapers and online forums.\r\n\r\nRead her \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/author/sharolembry/\">previous contributions\u003c/a> to \u003ca href=\"http://http://science.kqed.org/quest/\">QUEST\u003c/a>, a project dedicated to exploring the Science of Sustainability.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/e1d65f00eccde30de75fac778ead552d?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"science","roles":["author"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Sharol Nelson-Embry | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/e1d65f00eccde30de75fac778ead552d?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/e1d65f00eccde30de75fac778ead552d?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/sharolembry"},"quest":{"type":"authors","id":"10216","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"10216","found":true},"name":"QUEST Staff","firstName":"QUEST","lastName":"Staff","slug":"quest","email":"quest@kqed.orgx","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"QUEST, an Emmy Award-winning multimedia science series, has a new focus on the science of sustainability.The half-hour magazine style episodes are produced by a collaboration of six public broadcasters around the country and explore a wide variety of sustainability issues related to food, energy, water, climate and biodiversity. The story segments featured in each show are introduced by on-camera host, environmental journalist \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/author/pssethi/\">Simran Sethi\u003c/a>. The series also includes half-hour specials that focus on a single topic.\r\n \r\nAll 2013-2014 television programs can be viewed online in their entirety or as individual segments by clicking on the titles and images listed below. The programs are also broadcast in each of our six PBS partner regions including \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/stations/north-carolina/\">North Carolina\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/stations/ohio/\">Ohio\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/stations/nebraska/\">Nebraska\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/stations/northern-california/\">Northern California\u003c/a> and the \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/stations/northwest/\">Pacific Northwest\u003c/a>. Check local listings for broadcast dates and times.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/d3874a881a1fe56a99098a4feea236c8?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"quest","roles":["editor"]}],"headData":{"title":"QUEST Staff | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/d3874a881a1fe56a99098a4feea236c8?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/d3874a881a1fe56a99098a4feea236c8?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/quest"},"michaelschapiro":{"type":"authors","id":"10385","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"10385","found":true},"name":"Mark Schapiro","firstName":"Mark","lastName":"Schapiro","slug":"michaelschapiro","email":"mschapiro@cironline.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Mark Schapiro, a correspondent with the Center for Investigative Reporting in Berkeley, California specializes in international and environmental stories. His award-winning work appears in all media: in publications such as Harpers, Mother Jones, The Atlantic, Yale 360 and The Nation; on television, including PBS FRONTLINE/World; on public radio including KQED and Marketplace; and on the web. He is currently writing a book for Wiley & Co. investigating the back-story to our carbon footprints. His previous book, \u003cstrong>EXPOSED: The Toxic Chemistry of Everyday Products and What’s at Stake for American Power\u003c/strong>, reveals the health and economic implications for American citizens and U.S. companies of the tightening of environmental standards by the European Union.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b4582fc56a27db923f25c0a1f514e9e1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Mark Schapiro | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b4582fc56a27db923f25c0a1f514e9e1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/b4582fc56a27db923f25c0a1f514e9e1?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/michaelschapiro"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"home","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"quest_73090":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_73090","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"73090","score":null,"sort":[1418419225000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"evidence-of-global-warming","title":"Evidence of Global Warming","publishDate":1418419225,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"term":13355,"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>Scientists around the globe have noticed that over the last 40 years Earth, as a whole, has been warming. This phenomenon, known as global warming, is affecting regional climates differently. For example, some regions may experience warmer summers, while other regions may see winters with heavier snowstorms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A rise in Earth's average temperature isn't always immediately apparent. For example, some places still get snowy winters which might appear to contradict the idea of global warming. (Check out \u003ca href=\"http://www.buzzfeed.com/kevintang/an-illustrated-guide-to-why-this-winter-has-been-so-brutal\">Andy Warner's comic\u003c/a> to learn how global warming can actually lead to heavier snowfall). So, how do scientists know Earth is warming?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists don't just look at one set of data; in fact, they analyze a whole body of evidence. One of the clearest indicators of a warming world is change in the Arctic. There, slight increases in temperatures can be the difference between ice and liquid water. Increasing temperatures are leading to declines in glaciers and sea ice. Other indicators of a warming world include rising sea levels and increases in ocean heat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://https://youtu.be/5siikA1ghmo\">http://https://youtu.be/5siikA1ghmo\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"color: #444444\">\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Watch the video above (and pause to read) to learn more about the evidence that supports global warming.\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Discussion Questions\u003c/h2>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>How do rising sea levels indicate a warming world?\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>How do shrinking glaciers and declines in sea ice indicate a warming world?\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>How does an increase in ocean heat content indicate a warming world?\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>What does the temperature data graph in this interactive show?\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>This video explainer is part of our \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/collections/clue-into-climate/\">Clue into Climate\u003c/a> collection of resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003chr>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>An interactive version of this explainer is featured in our \u003cstrong>Clue into Climate\u003c/strong> e-book series. Click on the tabs below to download our free e-books and subscribe to our iTunes U course. You can also visit our \u003ca href=\"http://blogs.kqed.org/education/e-books/\">e-books page\u003c/a> to view our other offerings.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"clearfix\">\n\u003cp>\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-11944\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Climate-e-book-cover-1-150x194.png\" alt=\"Climate e-book cover 1\" width=\"105\" height=\"136\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Look into the causes of climate change, and discover how scientists develop and use climate models.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/ee/book/clue-into-climate-causes-change/id927517681?mt=13\">\u003cimg class=\"wp-image-11945\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Download_on_iTunes_Badge_US-UK_110x40_1004.png\" alt=\"Download on iBooks\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/E-book-button-for-Web.png\" alt=\"Subscribe on iTunes\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv class=\"clearfix\">\n\u003cp>\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-14724\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Climate-e-book-cover-2-150x194.png\" alt=\"Climate e-book cover 2 web\" width=\"105\" height=\"136\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Learn about how climate change influences precipitation patterns and how it impacts our frozen landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/clue-into-climate-changing/id930719116?mt=13\">\u003cimg class=\"wp-image-11945\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Download_on_iTunes_Badge_US-UK_110x40_1004.png\" alt=\"Download on iBooks\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/E-book-button-for-Web.png\" alt=\"Subscribe on iTunes\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv class=\"clearfix\">\n\u003cp>\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-14735\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Climate-e-book-cover-3-150x194.png\" alt=\"Climate e-book cover 3 updated web\" width=\"105\" height=\"136\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Investigate shifts in the distribution of plant and animal species due to climate change, and the effects of increased carbon dioxide emissions on the ocean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/clue-into-climate-changing/id932195900?mt=13\">\u003cimg class=\"wp-image-11945\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Download_on_iTunes_Badge_US-UK_110x40_1004.png\" alt=\"Download on iBooks\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/E-book-button-for-Web.png\" alt=\"Subscribe on iTunes\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv class=\"clearfix\">\n\u003cp>\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-14737\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Climate-e-book-cover-4-150x194.png\" alt=\"Climate e-book cover 4 web\" width=\"105\" height=\"136\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>See how communities are preparing for sea level rise and other impacts of climate change, and ways we can help minimize future climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/clue-into-climate-facing-our/id932658240?mt=13\">\u003cimg class=\"wp-image-11945\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Download_on_iTunes_Badge_US-UK_110x40_1004.png\" alt=\"Download on iBooks\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/E-book-button-for-Web.png\" alt=\"Subscribe on iTunes\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv class=\"clearfix\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Explore how rising sea levels, increases in ocean heat and melting glaciers indicate a warming planet in this interactive.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1587659574,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":20,"wordCount":386},"headData":{"title":"Evidence of Global Warming | KQED","description":"Explore how rising sea levels, increases in ocean heat and melting glaciers indicate a warming planet in this interactive.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"73090 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=73090","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2014/12/12/evidence-of-global-warming/","disqusTitle":"Evidence of Global Warming","path":"/quest/73090/evidence-of-global-warming","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Scientists around the globe have noticed that over the last 40 years Earth, as a whole, has been warming. This phenomenon, known as global warming, is affecting regional climates differently. For example, some regions may experience warmer summers, while other regions may see winters with heavier snowstorms.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A rise in Earth's average temperature isn't always immediately apparent. For example, some places still get snowy winters which might appear to contradict the idea of global warming. (Check out \u003ca href=\"http://www.buzzfeed.com/kevintang/an-illustrated-guide-to-why-this-winter-has-been-so-brutal\">Andy Warner's comic\u003c/a> to learn how global warming can actually lead to heavier snowfall). So, how do scientists know Earth is warming?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists don't just look at one set of data; in fact, they analyze a whole body of evidence. One of the clearest indicators of a warming world is change in the Arctic. There, slight increases in temperatures can be the difference between ice and liquid water. Increasing temperatures are leading to declines in glaciers and sea ice. Other indicators of a warming world include rising sea levels and increases in ocean heat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://https://youtu.be/5siikA1ghmo\">http://https://youtu.be/5siikA1ghmo\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"color: #444444\">\u003cbr>\n\u003cem>Watch the video above (and pause to read) to learn more about the evidence that supports global warming.\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Discussion Questions\u003c/h2>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>How do rising sea levels indicate a warming world?\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>How do shrinking glaciers and declines in sea ice indicate a warming world?\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>How does an increase in ocean heat content indicate a warming world?\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>What does the temperature data graph in this interactive show?\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>This video explainer is part of our \u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/collections/clue-into-climate/\">Clue into Climate\u003c/a> collection of resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003chr>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>An interactive version of this explainer is featured in our \u003cstrong>Clue into Climate\u003c/strong> e-book series. Click on the tabs below to download our free e-books and subscribe to our iTunes U course. You can also visit our \u003ca href=\"http://blogs.kqed.org/education/e-books/\">e-books page\u003c/a> to view our other offerings.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"clearfix\">\n\u003cp>\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-11944\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Climate-e-book-cover-1-150x194.png\" alt=\"Climate e-book cover 1\" width=\"105\" height=\"136\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Look into the causes of climate change, and discover how scientists develop and use climate models.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/ee/book/clue-into-climate-causes-change/id927517681?mt=13\">\u003cimg class=\"wp-image-11945\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Download_on_iTunes_Badge_US-UK_110x40_1004.png\" alt=\"Download on iBooks\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/E-book-button-for-Web.png\" alt=\"Subscribe on iTunes\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv class=\"clearfix\">\n\u003cp>\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-14724\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Climate-e-book-cover-2-150x194.png\" alt=\"Climate e-book cover 2 web\" width=\"105\" height=\"136\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Learn about how climate change influences precipitation patterns and how it impacts our frozen landscape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/clue-into-climate-changing/id930719116?mt=13\">\u003cimg class=\"wp-image-11945\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Download_on_iTunes_Badge_US-UK_110x40_1004.png\" alt=\"Download on iBooks\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/E-book-button-for-Web.png\" alt=\"Subscribe on iTunes\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv class=\"clearfix\">\n\u003cp>\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-14735\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Climate-e-book-cover-3-150x194.png\" alt=\"Climate e-book cover 3 updated web\" width=\"105\" height=\"136\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Investigate shifts in the distribution of plant and animal species due to climate change, and the effects of increased carbon dioxide emissions on the ocean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/clue-into-climate-changing/id932195900?mt=13\">\u003cimg class=\"wp-image-11945\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Download_on_iTunes_Badge_US-UK_110x40_1004.png\" alt=\"Download on iBooks\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/E-book-button-for-Web.png\" alt=\"Subscribe on iTunes\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv class=\"clearfix\">\n\u003cp>\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-14737\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Climate-e-book-cover-4-150x194.png\" alt=\"Climate e-book cover 4 web\" width=\"105\" height=\"136\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>See how communities are preparing for sea level rise and other impacts of climate change, and ways we can help minimize future climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/book/clue-into-climate-facing-our/id932658240?mt=13\">\u003cimg class=\"wp-image-11945\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/Download_on_iTunes_Badge_US-UK_110x40_1004.png\" alt=\"Download on iBooks\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a> \u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://itunes.apple.com/us/course/clue-into-climate/id944516910\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2015/12/E-book-button-for-Web.png\" alt=\"Subscribe on iTunes\" width=\"110\" height=\"40\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\n\u003cdiv class=\"clearfix\">\u003c/div>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/73090/evidence-of-global-warming","authors":["10216"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_9"],"tags":["quest_621","quest_13111","quest_12946","quest_11194","quest_1585","quest_2035","quest_2559"],"collections":["quest_13355"],"featImg":"quest_73411","label":"quest_13355"},"quest_62076":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_62076","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"62076","score":null,"sort":[1384959614000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"transforming-san-francisco-into-a-model-of-disaster-preparedness","title":"Transforming San Francisco Into a Model of Disaster Preparedness","publishDate":1384959614,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_63816\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/11/20/transforming-san-francisco-into-a-model-of-disaster-preparedness/shawn-clover_edited-1/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-63816\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-63816\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/11/Shawn-Clover_edited-1.jpg\" alt=\"A mashup of San Francisco's Pacific Heights neighborhood right after the 1906 earthquake and what the area looks like today. Credit: Shawn Clover\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/11/Shawn-Clover_edited-1.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/11/Shawn-Clover_edited-1-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A mashup of San Francisco's Pacific Heights neighborhood right after the 1906 earthquake and what the area looks like today.\u003cbr>Credit: Shawn Clover\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Mention sleeping in \u003ca href=\"http://sfrecpark.org/destination/golden-gate-park/\">Golden Gate Park\u003c/a>, and most people think of homelessness. But the idea that San Francisco’s most famous park could be used as an emergency shelter for thousands of victims after a major earthquake – as it was after the 1906 earthquake – is again resurfacing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.publicarchitecture.org/\">Public Architecture\u003c/a>, a San Francisco non-profit organization, recently asked three architecture and design firms to devise resiliency plans for the city that could be put in place as soon as next year and explore creative ways San Francisco could respond to natural disasters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With everything from urine recycling to art installations that indicate areas at risk for earthquake liquefaction, tsunamis and floods, the firms drew up a variety of innovative strategies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the plans, from San Francisco-based \u003ca href=\"http://www.cmgsite.com/\">CMG Landscape Architecture\u003c/a>, looks to the \u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/1906/18april/index.php\">1906 San Francisco earthquake\u003c/a>. That catastrophe killed at least 3,000 people, destroyed more than 28,000 buildings and left 225,000 people homeless.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“We’re in earthquake country and it can be the elephant in the room—we know it could happen but we want to ignore it”\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>After the 7.6 magnitude earthquake hit, many victims flocked to the Presidio—then a military outpost—and to Golden Gate Park for refuge. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At first, tents were constructed, but as winter approached, soldiers from the Army built small houses that provided shelter for more than 16,000 survivors. CMG believes the Park can once again support many thousands of people, if necessary.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re in earthquake country and it can be the elephant in the room—we know it could happen but we want to ignore it,” said CMG design leader \u003ca href=\"http://www.cmgsite.com/firm/people/scott-cataffa/\">Scott Cataffa\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CMG proposes new waste treatment facilities, emergency-response infrastructure and energy supplies by lining the Park’s polo fields with dry-composting restrooms and first aid stations. The restrooms would divert treated wastewater onto nearby turf for use as a natural fertilizer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An on-site, sand-filter water treatment system also would serve as a 100-foot tall water tower and viewing deck. The observation deck, covered with solar panels and a modern-day windmill, would allow people to survey the surrounding area. Dutch and Murphy Windmills that already exist at the Park would serve as a back-up power source.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By integrating large-scale sanitation-systems, water treatment infrastructure and a water tower, the park could support up to 12,000 people, Cataffa estimated.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There is already a precedent for Golden Gate Park supporting a large influx of people in the 21st century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Annual events, like the Outside Lands music festival, draw hundreds of thousands of fans into the park during the summer. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, CMG officials believe that public events are ideal opportunities to teach disaster preparedness and encourage a sense of community among attendees. “During Super Storm Sandy, some communities had fewer economic resources but knew each other better and they looked out for each other,” Caffata said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We wanted to tap into the sharing economy of Burning Man and back-country camping,” he said, “and see if we could come together and get to know our neighbors.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Next April 18, on the 108th anniversary of the 1906 earthquake, CMG proposes a “Camp the Park” event. Interested San Franciscans would spend the night in Golden Gate Park to test the city’s ability to mobilize and prepare for disaster response while meeting neighbors and learning about survival techniques.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Corporate sponsors would provide the funding while the San Francisco Recreation and Park Department would need to approve the event and any structural upgrades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, not everyone thinks it’s a good idea to herd thousands of people into Golden Gate Park after the next major earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Our first choice is to keep people in their homes, not in a city that gets built in Golden Gate Park,\" said Lt. Erica Arteseros, program coordinator for the San Francisco Fire Department’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.sf-fire.org/index.aspx?page=875\">Neighborhood Emergency Response Team\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Arteseros' program, formed after the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake, allows roughly 2,000 people a year to receive 18 hours of disaster preparedness training from San Francisco firefighters and emergency responders. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"There’s not enough space and housing to accommodate everyone leaving their home,” she said. “If your home is safe enough to stay in, that’s the best.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://www.spur.org/\">San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association\u003c/a>, a non-profit planning group, has published a \u003ca href=\"http://www.spur.org/publications/library/article/san-francisco-safe-enough-stay\">“Safe Enough to Stay”\u003c/a> report that details what it would take to make people's homes suitable as shelters after an earthquake. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If residents can stay in their homes, the process of rebuilding the city can begin much sooner, according to the report.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even so, after a magnitude 7.0 earthquake or greater, many people would be left homeless.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In that scenario, the San Francisco \u003ca href=\"http://sfdem.org/\">Department of Emergency Management\u003c/a> would work with the Red Cross to set up temporary shelters and use large spaces like the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium to provide longer term housing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For all San Francisco's current planning, CMG and Public Architecture say they are not evaluating optimal conditions. They anticipate a future that is hard to imagine and even harder to predict.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re not planning for a best-case scenario,” said Public Architecture CEO John Peterson. “Unfortunately the best case is not realistic.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The next “big one” is never out of mind for San Francisco residents who may have a new place to gather if one landscape architecture firm has its way. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1384975415,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":28,"wordCount":937},"headData":{"title":"Transforming San Francisco Into a Model of Disaster Preparedness | KQED","description":"The next “big one” is never out of mind for San Francisco residents who may have a new place to gather if one landscape architecture firm has its way. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"62076 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=62076","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/11/20/transforming-san-francisco-into-a-model-of-disaster-preparedness/","disqusTitle":"Transforming San Francisco Into a Model of Disaster Preparedness","path":"/quest/62076/transforming-san-francisco-into-a-model-of-disaster-preparedness","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_63816\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/11/20/transforming-san-francisco-into-a-model-of-disaster-preparedness/shawn-clover_edited-1/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-63816\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-63816\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/11/Shawn-Clover_edited-1.jpg\" alt=\"A mashup of San Francisco's Pacific Heights neighborhood right after the 1906 earthquake and what the area looks like today. Credit: Shawn Clover\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/11/Shawn-Clover_edited-1.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/11/Shawn-Clover_edited-1-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A mashup of San Francisco's Pacific Heights neighborhood right after the 1906 earthquake and what the area looks like today.\u003cbr>Credit: Shawn Clover\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Mention sleeping in \u003ca href=\"http://sfrecpark.org/destination/golden-gate-park/\">Golden Gate Park\u003c/a>, and most people think of homelessness. But the idea that San Francisco’s most famous park could be used as an emergency shelter for thousands of victims after a major earthquake – as it was after the 1906 earthquake – is again resurfacing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.publicarchitecture.org/\">Public Architecture\u003c/a>, a San Francisco non-profit organization, recently asked three architecture and design firms to devise resiliency plans for the city that could be put in place as soon as next year and explore creative ways San Francisco could respond to natural disasters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With everything from urine recycling to art installations that indicate areas at risk for earthquake liquefaction, tsunamis and floods, the firms drew up a variety of innovative strategies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of the plans, from San Francisco-based \u003ca href=\"http://www.cmgsite.com/\">CMG Landscape Architecture\u003c/a>, looks to the \u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/1906/18april/index.php\">1906 San Francisco earthquake\u003c/a>. That catastrophe killed at least 3,000 people, destroyed more than 28,000 buildings and left 225,000 people homeless.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“We’re in earthquake country and it can be the elephant in the room—we know it could happen but we want to ignore it”\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>After the 7.6 magnitude earthquake hit, many victims flocked to the Presidio—then a military outpost—and to Golden Gate Park for refuge. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At first, tents were constructed, but as winter approached, soldiers from the Army built small houses that provided shelter for more than 16,000 survivors. CMG believes the Park can once again support many thousands of people, if necessary.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re in earthquake country and it can be the elephant in the room—we know it could happen but we want to ignore it,” said CMG design leader \u003ca href=\"http://www.cmgsite.com/firm/people/scott-cataffa/\">Scott Cataffa\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>CMG proposes new waste treatment facilities, emergency-response infrastructure and energy supplies by lining the Park’s polo fields with dry-composting restrooms and first aid stations. The restrooms would divert treated wastewater onto nearby turf for use as a natural fertilizer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>An on-site, sand-filter water treatment system also would serve as a 100-foot tall water tower and viewing deck. The observation deck, covered with solar panels and a modern-day windmill, would allow people to survey the surrounding area. Dutch and Murphy Windmills that already exist at the Park would serve as a back-up power source.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By integrating large-scale sanitation-systems, water treatment infrastructure and a water tower, the park could support up to 12,000 people, Cataffa estimated.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There is already a precedent for Golden Gate Park supporting a large influx of people in the 21st century.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Annual events, like the Outside Lands music festival, draw hundreds of thousands of fans into the park during the summer. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, CMG officials believe that public events are ideal opportunities to teach disaster preparedness and encourage a sense of community among attendees. “During Super Storm Sandy, some communities had fewer economic resources but knew each other better and they looked out for each other,” Caffata said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We wanted to tap into the sharing economy of Burning Man and back-country camping,” he said, “and see if we could come together and get to know our neighbors.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Next April 18, on the 108th anniversary of the 1906 earthquake, CMG proposes a “Camp the Park” event. Interested San Franciscans would spend the night in Golden Gate Park to test the city’s ability to mobilize and prepare for disaster response while meeting neighbors and learning about survival techniques.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Corporate sponsors would provide the funding while the San Francisco Recreation and Park Department would need to approve the event and any structural upgrades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, not everyone thinks it’s a good idea to herd thousands of people into Golden Gate Park after the next major earthquake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Our first choice is to keep people in their homes, not in a city that gets built in Golden Gate Park,\" said Lt. Erica Arteseros, program coordinator for the San Francisco Fire Department’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.sf-fire.org/index.aspx?page=875\">Neighborhood Emergency Response Team\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Arteseros' program, formed after the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake, allows roughly 2,000 people a year to receive 18 hours of disaster preparedness training from San Francisco firefighters and emergency responders. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"There’s not enough space and housing to accommodate everyone leaving their home,” she said. “If your home is safe enough to stay in, that’s the best.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"http://www.spur.org/\">San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association\u003c/a>, a non-profit planning group, has published a \u003ca href=\"http://www.spur.org/publications/library/article/san-francisco-safe-enough-stay\">“Safe Enough to Stay”\u003c/a> report that details what it would take to make people's homes suitable as shelters after an earthquake. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If residents can stay in their homes, the process of rebuilding the city can begin much sooner, according to the report.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even so, after a magnitude 7.0 earthquake or greater, many people would be left homeless.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In that scenario, the San Francisco \u003ca href=\"http://sfdem.org/\">Department of Emergency Management\u003c/a> would work with the Red Cross to set up temporary shelters and use large spaces like the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium to provide longer term housing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For all San Francisco's current planning, CMG and Public Architecture say they are not evaluating optimal conditions. They anticipate a future that is hard to imagine and even harder to predict.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re not planning for a best-case scenario,” said Public Architecture CEO John Peterson. “Unfortunately the best case is not realistic.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/62076/transforming-san-francisco-into-a-model-of-disaster-preparedness","authors":["5432"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_9"],"tags":["quest_12431","quest_12427","quest_12031","quest_12428","quest_909","quest_12269","quest_11099","quest_3351","quest_1585","quest_2141","quest_12429","quest_2349","quest_13202","quest_12430","quest_2559","quest_12432"],"featImg":"quest_63816","label":"quest"},"quest_54442":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_54442","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"54442","score":null,"sort":[1373983220000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"wetlands-horizontal-levees-sea-level-rise","title":"Are Wetlands Nature's Best Defense Against Sea Level Rise?","publishDate":1373983220,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_57690\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-57690 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge.jpg\" alt=\"Flooding near the Bay Bridge during an extremely high tide. Photo by Michael Filippoff\" width=\"640\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge.jpg 1672w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge-400x225.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge-800x450.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1672px) 100vw, 1672px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Flooding near the Bay Bridge during an extremely high tide in December 2012. Photo by Michael Filippoff\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>QUEST Northern California coordinating producer \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/author/lindseyhoshaw/\">Lindsey Hoshaw\u003c/a> contributed to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"http://woods.stanford.edu/news-events/news/best-defense-against-catastrophic-storms-mother-nature\">new report\u003c/a> from Stanford University indicates that conserving wetlands is critical to defending coastal communities from a rising sea.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With nearly 50 percent of the nation’s population projected to live in coastal counties by 2020, sea level rise could affect millions of people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sea level is rising because the ocean is warming, which increases the ocean volume, and also because ice sheets and glaciers are melting. Storm surges and ‘\u003ca href=\"http://www.californiakingtides.org/resources/\">king tides\u003c/a>,’ the highest tides of the year, can contribute to short-term coastal flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Global sea level is predicted to rise 3 feet by 2100, but that number can vary widely in \u003ca href=\"http://dels.nas.edu/Materials/Videos/Sea-level-Rise\">different geographic locations\u003c/a> where the land is either rising or sinking and may be tectonically active.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the Bay Area, sea level is \u003ca href=\"http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=13389&page=89\">predicted to rise\u003c/a> by at least 1 foot, and could rise by \u003ca href=\"http://news.ucsc.edu/2012/06/sea-level-rise.html\">up to 5 feet\u003c/a>, since it is situated on several fault lines. Over the last century, \u003ca href=\"http://blogs.kqed.org/science/2013/05/30/bay-area-wetlands-slowly-drowning-as-seas-rise/\">sea level in the Bay Area\u003c/a> has already increased by 7 inches.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We don’t need to look in the future, Highway 101 is flooded every year,” Heidi Nutters from the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On-ramps to Highway 101 in Sausalito are flooded every year by king tides. “Sea level rise and storms that cause flooding will only get worse in the future because of climate change,” Nutters said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/horizontal-levee.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignleft wp-image-57717\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/horizontal-levee.jpg\" alt=\"horizontal levee\" width=\"480\" height=\"369\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/horizontal-levee.jpg 600w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/horizontal-levee-400x307.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003cbr>\nTo prepare for the deluge, land managers, planners, scientists and engineers are already working to explore and develop possible solutions. One option involves using wetlands as natural buffers against sea level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“\u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128113664\">Wetlands\u003c/a> have been shown to be really effective at buffering sea level rise and flooding,” said Hilary Papendick, a \u003ca href=\"http://www.noaa.gov/\">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u003c/a> Coastal Management Fellow. “Not only do they have benefits for water quality but they also provide habitat for different species,” Papendick said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, more than 80 percent of intertidal habitat around the bay, that might have been useful as a buffer to rising tides, has been lost to development. It has been diked and drained for salt production and farming, or filled, paved and turned into highways, railroads, and sewage treatment plants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jeremy Lowe, a wetlands scientist with consulting firm \u003ca title=\"Environmental Science Associates website\" href=\"http://esassoc.com/about-us\" target=\"_blank\">Environmental Science Associates,\u003c/a> is working with the \u003ca href=\"http://www.bay.org/\">Bay Institute\u003c/a> to evaluate the concept of \u003ca title=\"Horizontal Levees, San Francisco Estuary Institute\" href=\"http://www.sfestuary.org/estuary-news/the-laid-back-levee/\" target=\"_blank\">“horizontal levees”\u003c/a> in the bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_57763\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 400px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-57763 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail.jpg\" alt='The California Clapper Rail, an endangered species, would benefit by the expanded habitat provided by a \"horizontal levee.\" Photo courtesy of Robert Stronck, stronckphoto.com' width=\"400\" height=\"250\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail.jpg 1586w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail-400x250.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail-800x500.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail-1440x900.jpg 1440w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail-1180x737.jpg 1180w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail-960x600.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The California Clapper Rail, an endangered species, would benefit from the expanded habitat provided by a \"horizontal levee.\" Photo courtesy of Robert Stronck, stronckphoto.com\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A “horizontal levee” is an expanded marshland in front of a manmade levee. By maintaining a wide tidal marsh in front of a manmade levee, urban areas are buffered from sea level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Specifically, the marshland on the seaside of the levee can decrease the size and power of the incoming waves. It can also serve to buffer the incoming water and decrease the wear and tear on the levee.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The lowlands, wetlands and mud flats have formed a resilient shoreline for a long time,” Lowe said. “We’re trying to incorporate these features into our planning of an urban estuary in the 21st century.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lowe’s firm, along with state agencies, utilities, universities and other consulting groups are collaborating on a \u003ca title=\"Horizontal Levee, Oro Loma Sanitary District\" href=\"http://www.oroloma.org/engineering/projects/Treatment%20Wetland%20and%20Ecotone%20Project%20-%20Feasibility%20Study.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">demonstration project\u003c/a> for a horizontal levee led by the \u003ca href=\"http://www.oroloma.org/\">Oro Loma Sanitary District\u003c/a>. Though it’s still in the developmental phase, Lowe hopes that such demonstrations will allow this and similar concepts to be tested, refined and implemented on a larger scale in the next couple of decades. \u003cstrong>\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Endangered species, such as California Clapper Rail and Salt Marsh Harvest Mouse, could also benefit from the additional habitat, helping to improve their chances of rebuilding sustainable populations.\u003cdel datetime=\"2013-07-11T11:45\">\u003c/del>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the horizontal levee moves from concept to demonstration, it becomes one more tool in the toolbox to consider in preparing for sea level rise. But Lowe notes that it will take more than wetland restoration to fully combat sea level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not a silver bullet, but it buys us some time,” Lowe said.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Restoring marshlands along the shore of San Francisco Bay may be the key to protecting communities from rising sea level and it may lend a helping hand to some endangered species, too. \r\n","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1374092643,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":21,"wordCount":726},"headData":{"title":"Are Wetlands Nature's Best Defense Against Sea Level Rise? | KQED","description":"Restoring marshlands along the shore of San Francisco Bay may be the key to protecting communities from rising sea level and it may lend a helping hand to some endangered species, too. \r\n","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"54442 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=54442","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/07/16/wetlands-horizontal-levees-sea-level-rise/","disqusTitle":"Are Wetlands Nature's Best Defense Against Sea Level Rise?","path":"/quest/54442/wetlands-horizontal-levees-sea-level-rise","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_57690\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-57690 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge.jpg\" alt=\"Flooding near the Bay Bridge during an extremely high tide. Photo by Michael Filippoff\" width=\"640\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge.jpg 1672w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge-400x225.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge-800x450.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/Flooding-near-the-Bay-Bridge-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1672px) 100vw, 1672px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Flooding near the Bay Bridge during an extremely high tide in December 2012. Photo by Michael Filippoff\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>QUEST Northern California coordinating producer \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/author/lindseyhoshaw/\">Lindsey Hoshaw\u003c/a> contributed to this story.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"http://woods.stanford.edu/news-events/news/best-defense-against-catastrophic-storms-mother-nature\">new report\u003c/a> from Stanford University indicates that conserving wetlands is critical to defending coastal communities from a rising sea.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With nearly 50 percent of the nation’s population projected to live in coastal counties by 2020, sea level rise could affect millions of people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sea level is rising because the ocean is warming, which increases the ocean volume, and also because ice sheets and glaciers are melting. Storm surges and ‘\u003ca href=\"http://www.californiakingtides.org/resources/\">king tides\u003c/a>,’ the highest tides of the year, can contribute to short-term coastal flooding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Global sea level is predicted to rise 3 feet by 2100, but that number can vary widely in \u003ca href=\"http://dels.nas.edu/Materials/Videos/Sea-level-Rise\">different geographic locations\u003c/a> where the land is either rising or sinking and may be tectonically active.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the Bay Area, sea level is \u003ca href=\"http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=13389&page=89\">predicted to rise\u003c/a> by at least 1 foot, and could rise by \u003ca href=\"http://news.ucsc.edu/2012/06/sea-level-rise.html\">up to 5 feet\u003c/a>, since it is situated on several fault lines. Over the last century, \u003ca href=\"http://blogs.kqed.org/science/2013/05/30/bay-area-wetlands-slowly-drowning-as-seas-rise/\">sea level in the Bay Area\u003c/a> has already increased by 7 inches.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We don’t need to look in the future, Highway 101 is flooded every year,” Heidi Nutters from the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On-ramps to Highway 101 in Sausalito are flooded every year by king tides. “Sea level rise and storms that cause flooding will only get worse in the future because of climate change,” Nutters said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/horizontal-levee.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignleft wp-image-57717\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/horizontal-levee.jpg\" alt=\"horizontal levee\" width=\"480\" height=\"369\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/horizontal-levee.jpg 600w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/horizontal-levee-400x307.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003cbr>\nTo prepare for the deluge, land managers, planners, scientists and engineers are already working to explore and develop possible solutions. One option involves using wetlands as natural buffers against sea level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“\u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128113664\">Wetlands\u003c/a> have been shown to be really effective at buffering sea level rise and flooding,” said Hilary Papendick, a \u003ca href=\"http://www.noaa.gov/\">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u003c/a> Coastal Management Fellow. “Not only do they have benefits for water quality but they also provide habitat for different species,” Papendick said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, more than 80 percent of intertidal habitat around the bay, that might have been useful as a buffer to rising tides, has been lost to development. It has been diked and drained for salt production and farming, or filled, paved and turned into highways, railroads, and sewage treatment plants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Jeremy Lowe, a wetlands scientist with consulting firm \u003ca title=\"Environmental Science Associates website\" href=\"http://esassoc.com/about-us\" target=\"_blank\">Environmental Science Associates,\u003c/a> is working with the \u003ca href=\"http://www.bay.org/\">Bay Institute\u003c/a> to evaluate the concept of \u003ca title=\"Horizontal Levees, San Francisco Estuary Institute\" href=\"http://www.sfestuary.org/estuary-news/the-laid-back-levee/\" target=\"_blank\">“horizontal levees”\u003c/a> in the bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_57763\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 400px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\" wp-image-57763 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail.jpg\" alt='The California Clapper Rail, an endangered species, would benefit by the expanded habitat provided by a \"horizontal levee.\" Photo courtesy of Robert Stronck, stronckphoto.com' width=\"400\" height=\"250\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail.jpg 1586w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail-400x250.jpg 400w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail-800x500.jpg 800w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail-1440x900.jpg 1440w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail-1180x737.jpg 1180w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/05/California_Clapper_rail-960x600.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The California Clapper Rail, an endangered species, would benefit from the expanded habitat provided by a \"horizontal levee.\" Photo courtesy of Robert Stronck, stronckphoto.com\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>A “horizontal levee” is an expanded marshland in front of a manmade levee. By maintaining a wide tidal marsh in front of a manmade levee, urban areas are buffered from sea level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Specifically, the marshland on the seaside of the levee can decrease the size and power of the incoming waves. It can also serve to buffer the incoming water and decrease the wear and tear on the levee.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The lowlands, wetlands and mud flats have formed a resilient shoreline for a long time,” Lowe said. “We’re trying to incorporate these features into our planning of an urban estuary in the 21st century.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Lowe’s firm, along with state agencies, utilities, universities and other consulting groups are collaborating on a \u003ca title=\"Horizontal Levee, Oro Loma Sanitary District\" href=\"http://www.oroloma.org/engineering/projects/Treatment%20Wetland%20and%20Ecotone%20Project%20-%20Feasibility%20Study.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">demonstration project\u003c/a> for a horizontal levee led by the \u003ca href=\"http://www.oroloma.org/\">Oro Loma Sanitary District\u003c/a>. Though it’s still in the developmental phase, Lowe hopes that such demonstrations will allow this and similar concepts to be tested, refined and implemented on a larger scale in the next couple of decades. \u003cstrong>\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Endangered species, such as California Clapper Rail and Salt Marsh Harvest Mouse, could also benefit from the additional habitat, helping to improve their chances of rebuilding sustainable populations.\u003cdel datetime=\"2013-07-11T11:45\">\u003c/del>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the horizontal levee moves from concept to demonstration, it becomes one more tool in the toolbox to consider in preparing for sea level rise. But Lowe notes that it will take more than wetland restoration to fully combat sea level rise.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s not a silver bullet, but it buys us some time,” Lowe said.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/54442/wetlands-horizontal-levees-sea-level-rise","authors":["6328"],"categories":["quest_4","quest_6"],"tags":["quest_326","quest_3310","quest_12149","quest_3351","quest_3307","quest_2141","quest_2349","quest_13202","quest_2559","quest_3140"],"featImg":"quest_57690","label":"quest"},"quest_53186":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_53186","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"53186","score":null,"sort":[1366988430000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"grappling-with-rising-tides","title":"Grappling with Rising Tides","publishDate":1366988430,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_53188\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/04/26/grappling-with-rising-tides/2012-12-12-king-tide-crown-beach-at-bay-farm-bridge-ebrpd-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-53188\">\u003cimg class=\"size-large wp-image-53188\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/04/2012-12-12-King-Tide-Crown-Beach-at-Bay-Farm-Bridge-EBRPD-2-e1366935919861.jpg\" alt=\"Last December the King Tide brought high water very close to the top of a containment wall in Alameda. Photo courtesy of East Bay Regional Park District.\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/04/2012-12-12-King-Tide-Crown-Beach-at-Bay-Farm-Bridge-EBRPD-2-e1366935919861.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/04/2012-12-12-King-Tide-Crown-Beach-at-Bay-Farm-Bridge-EBRPD-2-e1366935919861-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Last December, the King Tides brought high water very close to the top of a containment wall along the shore in Alameda. Photo courtesy of East Bay Regional Park District.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Strolling along the Bay Trail at \u003ca title=\"Crown Beach, EBRPD website\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/crown_beach\" target=\"_blank\">Crown Memorial State Beach\u003c/a> in Alameda a few weekends ago with a group of naturalists and college students at a professional workshop, we looked for areas that were inundated by the \u003ca title=\"CA King Tides website\" href=\"http://www.californiakingtides.org/\" target=\"_blank\">King Tides\u003c/a> last winter. We stood on trails and turf that had been underwater during those extreme high tides and discussed scientists’ predictions that high tide events, like King Tides, are likely to become the normal high tides in coming years. As seawater warms, it will expand as well as increase due to polar ice cap melting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>\"In California, we are very likely to experience a sea level rise of 16 inches by 2050 and 55 inches (1.4 meters) by 2100, and much more after that.\" \u003ca title=\"SPUR website\" href=\"http://www.spur.org/publications/library/report/sealevelrise_110109\" target=\"_blank\">Sea Level Rise and the Future of the Bay Area, SPUR \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The edges of our shoreline “bathtub” won’t be able to contain the overflow as the moon and sun interact and tides edge up and over into shoreline parks, roadways, homes and businesses. You can explore the \u003ca title=\"NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer\" href=\"http://www.csc.noaa.gov/slr/viewer/#\" target=\"_blank\">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration interactive model\u003c/a> of how the rising tides may impact our coastlines. Much of my hometown, with an elevation of 30 feet above sea level, may be underwater at the predicted high water level of 55 inches above current high-high tide. My house would be above water, but I wouldn't be able to get to work due to flooded roadways. Sea level rise predictions are evolving as more information is gathered and assessed. The models continue to be refined.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_53187\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 379px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/04/26/grappling-with-rising-tides/2012-12-12-king-tide-crown-beach-gos-pt-ebrpd/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-53187\">\u003cimg class=\"size-medium wp-image-53187\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/04/2012-12-12-King-Tide-Crown-Beach-GOS-Pt.-EBRPD-379x253.jpg\" alt=\"The King Tide nearly cut off the trail at Crown Beach leading out to a popular fishing point. Photo courtesy of East Bay Regional Park District.\" width=\"379\" height=\"253\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The King Tide nearly cut off the trail at Crown Beach leading out to a popular fishing point. Photo courtesy of East Bay Regional Park District.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The good news about sea level rise is that these are long-term predictions, allowing us time to prepare. As CAKE (Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange website) states, \u003ca title=\"Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange website\" href=\"http://www.cakex.org/community/don%27t-panic\" target=\"_blank\">“Don’t Panic.”\u003c/a> It’s a great site to learn more about climate change basics and sea level rise science, as well as access tools available to municipalities to plan for climate change mitigation measures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many municipalities are working together on a regional approach. In the East Bay this regional working group is referred to as “Adapting to Rising Tides (ART).” It’s led by the Bay Conservation and Development Committee (BCDC) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Services Center with participation by two regional park agencies, East Bay Regional Park District and Hayward Area Recreation District, along with local, regional, state and federal agencies and organizations, as well as non-profit and private associations. ART is looking at potential climate change impacts and subsequent effects to be addressed in this \u003ca title=\"ART Climate Impacts Statment\" href=\"http://www.adaptingtorisingtides.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/ClimateImpacts1pg20120112.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Climate Impacts Statement\u003c/a>. For more photos of King Tides around the Bay Area and California, check out the \u003ca title=\"California King Tides.org website\" href=\"http://www.californiakingtides.org/view-king-tide-images/low-tidehigh-tide-photos/\" target=\"_blank\">King Tides Initiative website\u003c/a>. What steps is your area taking to prepare for future sea level rise?\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Climate change and rising tides are predicted to take a toll on our shoreline areas in the Bay Area. Find out more about last winter's King Tides and what actions are underway to help plan for future sea level rise.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1367424350,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":9,"wordCount":536},"headData":{"title":"Grappling with Rising Tides | KQED","description":"Climate change and rising tides are predicted to take a toll on our shoreline areas in the Bay Area. Find out more about last winter's King Tides and what actions are underway to help plan for future sea level rise.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"53186 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=53186","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/04/26/grappling-with-rising-tides/","disqusTitle":"Grappling with Rising Tides","path":"/quest/53186/grappling-with-rising-tides","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_53188\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/04/26/grappling-with-rising-tides/2012-12-12-king-tide-crown-beach-at-bay-farm-bridge-ebrpd-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-53188\">\u003cimg class=\"size-large wp-image-53188\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/04/2012-12-12-King-Tide-Crown-Beach-at-Bay-Farm-Bridge-EBRPD-2-e1366935919861.jpg\" alt=\"Last December the King Tide brought high water very close to the top of a containment wall in Alameda. Photo courtesy of East Bay Regional Park District.\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/04/2012-12-12-King-Tide-Crown-Beach-at-Bay-Farm-Bridge-EBRPD-2-e1366935919861.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/04/2012-12-12-King-Tide-Crown-Beach-at-Bay-Farm-Bridge-EBRPD-2-e1366935919861-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Last December, the King Tides brought high water very close to the top of a containment wall along the shore in Alameda. Photo courtesy of East Bay Regional Park District.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Strolling along the Bay Trail at \u003ca title=\"Crown Beach, EBRPD website\" href=\"http://www.ebparks.org/parks/crown_beach\" target=\"_blank\">Crown Memorial State Beach\u003c/a> in Alameda a few weekends ago with a group of naturalists and college students at a professional workshop, we looked for areas that were inundated by the \u003ca title=\"CA King Tides website\" href=\"http://www.californiakingtides.org/\" target=\"_blank\">King Tides\u003c/a> last winter. We stood on trails and turf that had been underwater during those extreme high tides and discussed scientists’ predictions that high tide events, like King Tides, are likely to become the normal high tides in coming years. As seawater warms, it will expand as well as increase due to polar ice cap melting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>\"In California, we are very likely to experience a sea level rise of 16 inches by 2050 and 55 inches (1.4 meters) by 2100, and much more after that.\" \u003ca title=\"SPUR website\" href=\"http://www.spur.org/publications/library/report/sealevelrise_110109\" target=\"_blank\">Sea Level Rise and the Future of the Bay Area, SPUR \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The edges of our shoreline “bathtub” won’t be able to contain the overflow as the moon and sun interact and tides edge up and over into shoreline parks, roadways, homes and businesses. You can explore the \u003ca title=\"NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer\" href=\"http://www.csc.noaa.gov/slr/viewer/#\" target=\"_blank\">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration interactive model\u003c/a> of how the rising tides may impact our coastlines. Much of my hometown, with an elevation of 30 feet above sea level, may be underwater at the predicted high water level of 55 inches above current high-high tide. My house would be above water, but I wouldn't be able to get to work due to flooded roadways. Sea level rise predictions are evolving as more information is gathered and assessed. The models continue to be refined.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_53187\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 379px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/04/26/grappling-with-rising-tides/2012-12-12-king-tide-crown-beach-gos-pt-ebrpd/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-53187\">\u003cimg class=\"size-medium wp-image-53187\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/04/2012-12-12-King-Tide-Crown-Beach-GOS-Pt.-EBRPD-379x253.jpg\" alt=\"The King Tide nearly cut off the trail at Crown Beach leading out to a popular fishing point. Photo courtesy of East Bay Regional Park District.\" width=\"379\" height=\"253\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The King Tide nearly cut off the trail at Crown Beach leading out to a popular fishing point. Photo courtesy of East Bay Regional Park District.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The good news about sea level rise is that these are long-term predictions, allowing us time to prepare. As CAKE (Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange website) states, \u003ca title=\"Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange website\" href=\"http://www.cakex.org/community/don%27t-panic\" target=\"_blank\">“Don’t Panic.”\u003c/a> It’s a great site to learn more about climate change basics and sea level rise science, as well as access tools available to municipalities to plan for climate change mitigation measures.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many municipalities are working together on a regional approach. In the East Bay this regional working group is referred to as “Adapting to Rising Tides (ART).” It’s led by the Bay Conservation and Development Committee (BCDC) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Services Center with participation by two regional park agencies, East Bay Regional Park District and Hayward Area Recreation District, along with local, regional, state and federal agencies and organizations, as well as non-profit and private associations. ART is looking at potential climate change impacts and subsequent effects to be addressed in this \u003ca title=\"ART Climate Impacts Statment\" href=\"http://www.adaptingtorisingtides.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/ClimateImpacts1pg20120112.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Climate Impacts Statement\u003c/a>. For more photos of King Tides around the Bay Area and California, check out the \u003ca title=\"California King Tides.org website\" href=\"http://www.californiakingtides.org/view-king-tide-images/low-tidehigh-tide-photos/\" target=\"_blank\">King Tides Initiative website\u003c/a>. What steps is your area taking to prepare for future sea level rise?\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/53186/grappling-with-rising-tides","authors":["6328"],"categories":["quest_6"],"tags":["quest_11709","quest_3310","quest_3401","quest_11930","quest_11929","quest_3307","quest_13202","quest_11931","quest_2559"],"featImg":"quest_53188","label":"quest"},"quest_49237":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_49237","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"49237","score":null,"sort":[1359706587000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"san-francisco-a-test-case-for-coping-with-rising-seas","title":"San Francisco a Test Case for Coping with Rising Seas","publishDate":1359706587,"format":"audio","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Parts of New York and New Jersey are still reeling from Superstorm Sandy, an event that brought climate change and the threat of sea-level rise front-and-center. It's a looming problem for all coastal cities, and one that San Francisco has been pondering since long before Sandy struck.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Along San Francisco’s western shore, the \u003ca href=\"http://issuu.com/oceanbeachmasterplan/docs/obmp_document_full/11\">Ocean Beach Master Plan\u003c/a> is a kind of test case for sea-rise planning. It calls for big changes, including a strategy known as managed retreat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A taste of what's to come\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You don’t need a crystal ball to see how encroaching seas will affect San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"What we’re walking on right now is the former southbound lane of the Great Highway in San Francisco,\" says Tom Prete, the founder of the \u003ca href=\"http://oceanbeachbulletin.com/\">Ocean Beach Bulletin\u003c/a>, an online news site that covers the neighborhoods along San Francisco’s Pacific shore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"In the winter of 2010, the city closed this portion of Great Highway because of erosion that was endangering the road,\" he explains. The side of the road closest to the beach is now blocked off by concrete barriers. Traffic has been rerouted onto what was once the median, to avoid the receding sandy bluffs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It was something that was sort of done in an emergency,\" Prete says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, rather than just reacting to what’s happening out here, San Francisco is planning ahead. The road map for this more proactive approach is the Ocean Beach Master Plan, a sweeping set of recommendations intended to be implemented over the next few decades as the ocean relentlessly carves away the coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It wants this land back,\" Prete says. And it's taking it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Man-made problems\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year the \u003ca href=\"http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=13389\">National Academy of Sciences projected\u003c/a> that in this part of California, sea level could rise nearly a foot by 2030. And by the end of the century, if current warming trends continue, it could be more than four feet higher.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_49253\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 269px\">\u003cimg class=\"size-large wp-image-49253\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/revetments-269x360.jpg\" alt=\"revetments\" width=\"269\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Piles of boulders and rubble left from past attempts by the city to protect the Great Highway from erosion. (Molly Samuel/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Here at Ocean Beach, no private homes are in immediate danger, but on the line is millions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure: the four-lane highway and a waste water treatment plant. And there’s the beach itself, part of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, used by surfers, dog-walkers, joggers and bundled up beach-goers (this is not San Diego).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sea level rise is a looming threat, but erosion is nothing new.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It's at least partially -- I would argue, largely -- a man-made problem,\" says Bob Battalio, a coastal engineer at the consulting firm \u003ca href=\"http://www.pwa-ltd.com/index.html\">ESA PWA\u003c/a> who is working on the Master Plan. He says the Great Highway isn’t just a casualty here; it’s part of the problem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It opened in 1929 to much \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfmuseum.org/hist2/ghiway.html\">fanfare\u003c/a>. But it wasn’t exactly built on \u003cem>Terra Firma\u003c/em>: the city flattened coastal sand dunes and pushed the shoreline about 200 feet out into the ocean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It was progress I guess at that point,\" reflects Battalio.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the ocean has been pushing back ever since and the Great Highway isn’t looking so great anymore, with pieces of parking lots crumbling onto the beach. The bluffs below it are strewn with sandbags, boulders and concrete: failed attempts by the city to stem erosion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change will make it all worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It’s kind of like trying to hold a pendulum, and it's going to try to go back to where it wants to be,\" says Battalio. \"Otherwise you have to hold it there.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Retreating from the rising tide\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The most dramatic recommendation in the Ocean Beach Master Plan is to let go of the pendulum.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_49271\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/map.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-49271 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/map-small.jpg\" alt=\"Ocean Beach hasn't always been where it is now. Click on the map to see more information about past shorelines. (Map courtesy of Elena Vandebroek and Bob Battalio, ESA PWA)\" width=\"640\" height=\"731\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/map-small.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/map-small-400x457.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ocean Beach hasn't always been where it is now. Click on the map to see more information about past shorelines. (Map courtesy of Elena Vandebroek and Bob Battalio, ESA PWA)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\"Everything's easier if you move back,\" Battalio explains. \"So ultimately what we’re trying to do is what we call 'managed retreat.'\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Under the plan, San Francisco would close one end of the Great Highway, reroute traffic about a half-mile inland, and let the ocean come back. Battalio says it comes down to engineering and economics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"As a surfer and somebody who’s studied waves and the like, I think it’s fine if people want to live on the coast,\" he says. \"But I don’t think it’s okay to take public money and build structures that adversely affect the beach. I don’t want my money going there.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_49262\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-49262 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/surfer1.jpg\" alt=\"Surfers \" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/surfer1.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/surfer1-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">For years surfers have been asking San Francisco to manage the erosion problems at the south end of Ocean Beach. (Photo: Sean Greene/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Translating high-concept plans to work on the ground\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan would cut down on those kinds of costs, but it isn't cheap, either. Estimates for completing all the recommendations are just north of $350 million. Funding has come through for some initial studies, but the vast majority of that money has yet to be raised.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"A lot of the things we're recommending at Ocean Beach are very expensive,\" says Benjamin Grant, who manages the Ocean Beach Master Plan for the \u003ca href=\"http://www.spur.org/\">San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association\u003c/a> (SPUR). \"But you have to set them against the costs of the band-aid measures already taking place.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\n\u003ch4>Dive into the plan and Explore SPUR's \u003ca href=\"http://www.spur.org/featured-project/ocean-beach-master-plan\" target=\"_blank\">Ocean Beach website\u003c/a>\u003c/h4>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://issuu.com/oceanbeachmasterplan/docs/obmp_document_full/11\">Download the Ocean Beach Master Plan\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://oceanbeachbulletin.com/tag/ocean-beach-master-plan/\">Read the Ocean Beach Bulletin's Master Plan coverage\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>SPUR is acting as a facilitator for the project, bringing together the myriad city, state, and federal organizations involved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"We can't close our eyes to what’s coming and it’s definitely going to get worse and not better,\" Grant says. \"If we can find a way to work with those processes to achieve the kinds of outcomes and build the kinds of places we want to have in our city, then we’ll be ahead of the game.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Two other California cities, Pacifica and Ventura, have both undertaken smaller managed-retreat projects. And other places, including New York City and the states around Chesapeake Bay, are beginning to put together their own climate response plans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For San Francisco, completing the big vision of the Ocean Beach Master Plan is just a first step. Some traffic and engineering studies are underway now, but they’re just the beginning of a decades-long process that will affect the shape of our coast and the lives along it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan also will be closely watched by other coastal cities around the United States, as the sea continues its slow but steady rise.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Under a strategy known as \"managed retreat,\" San Francisco gets ready to let the ocean reclaim a cherished stretch of Pacific coastline.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1450494412,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":34,"wordCount":1145},"headData":{"title":"San Francisco a Test Case for Coping with Rising Seas | KQED","description":"Under a strategy known as "managed retreat," San Francisco gets ready to let the ocean reclaim a cherished stretch of Pacific coastline.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"49237 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?post_type=audio_reports&p=49237","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/02/01/san-francisco-a-test-case-for-coping-with-rising-seas/","disqusTitle":"San Francisco a Test Case for Coping with Rising Seas","source":"Environment","sourceUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/category/environment/","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2013/02/20130204science.mp3","WpOldSlug":"west-coast-a-test-bed-for-ocean-acidification-2","path":"/quest/49237/san-francisco-a-test-case-for-coping-with-rising-seas","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Parts of New York and New Jersey are still reeling from Superstorm Sandy, an event that brought climate change and the threat of sea-level rise front-and-center. It's a looming problem for all coastal cities, and one that San Francisco has been pondering since long before Sandy struck.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Along San Francisco’s western shore, the \u003ca href=\"http://issuu.com/oceanbeachmasterplan/docs/obmp_document_full/11\">Ocean Beach Master Plan\u003c/a> is a kind of test case for sea-rise planning. It calls for big changes, including a strategy known as managed retreat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>A taste of what's to come\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>You don’t need a crystal ball to see how encroaching seas will affect San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"What we’re walking on right now is the former southbound lane of the Great Highway in San Francisco,\" says Tom Prete, the founder of the \u003ca href=\"http://oceanbeachbulletin.com/\">Ocean Beach Bulletin\u003c/a>, an online news site that covers the neighborhoods along San Francisco’s Pacific shore.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"In the winter of 2010, the city closed this portion of Great Highway because of erosion that was endangering the road,\" he explains. The side of the road closest to the beach is now blocked off by concrete barriers. Traffic has been rerouted onto what was once the median, to avoid the receding sandy bluffs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It was something that was sort of done in an emergency,\" Prete says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now, rather than just reacting to what’s happening out here, San Francisco is planning ahead. The road map for this more proactive approach is the Ocean Beach Master Plan, a sweeping set of recommendations intended to be implemented over the next few decades as the ocean relentlessly carves away the coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It wants this land back,\" Prete says. And it's taking it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Man-made problems\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last year the \u003ca href=\"http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=13389\">National Academy of Sciences projected\u003c/a> that in this part of California, sea level could rise nearly a foot by 2030. And by the end of the century, if current warming trends continue, it could be more than four feet higher.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_49253\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 269px\">\u003cimg class=\"size-large wp-image-49253\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/revetments-269x360.jpg\" alt=\"revetments\" width=\"269\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Piles of boulders and rubble left from past attempts by the city to protect the Great Highway from erosion. (Molly Samuel/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Here at Ocean Beach, no private homes are in immediate danger, but on the line is millions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure: the four-lane highway and a waste water treatment plant. And there’s the beach itself, part of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, used by surfers, dog-walkers, joggers and bundled up beach-goers (this is not San Diego).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sea level rise is a looming threat, but erosion is nothing new.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It's at least partially -- I would argue, largely -- a man-made problem,\" says Bob Battalio, a coastal engineer at the consulting firm \u003ca href=\"http://www.pwa-ltd.com/index.html\">ESA PWA\u003c/a> who is working on the Master Plan. He says the Great Highway isn’t just a casualty here; it’s part of the problem.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It opened in 1929 to much \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfmuseum.org/hist2/ghiway.html\">fanfare\u003c/a>. But it wasn’t exactly built on \u003cem>Terra Firma\u003c/em>: the city flattened coastal sand dunes and pushed the shoreline about 200 feet out into the ocean.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It was progress I guess at that point,\" reflects Battalio.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the ocean has been pushing back ever since and the Great Highway isn’t looking so great anymore, with pieces of parking lots crumbling onto the beach. The bluffs below it are strewn with sandbags, boulders and concrete: failed attempts by the city to stem erosion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change will make it all worse.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It’s kind of like trying to hold a pendulum, and it's going to try to go back to where it wants to be,\" says Battalio. \"Otherwise you have to hold it there.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Retreating from the rising tide\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The most dramatic recommendation in the Ocean Beach Master Plan is to let go of the pendulum.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_49271\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/map.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-49271 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/map-small.jpg\" alt=\"Ocean Beach hasn't always been where it is now. Click on the map to see more information about past shorelines. (Map courtesy of Elena Vandebroek and Bob Battalio, ESA PWA)\" width=\"640\" height=\"731\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/map-small.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/map-small-400x457.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ocean Beach hasn't always been where it is now. Click on the map to see more information about past shorelines. (Map courtesy of Elena Vandebroek and Bob Battalio, ESA PWA)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\"Everything's easier if you move back,\" Battalio explains. \"So ultimately what we’re trying to do is what we call 'managed retreat.'\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Under the plan, San Francisco would close one end of the Great Highway, reroute traffic about a half-mile inland, and let the ocean come back. Battalio says it comes down to engineering and economics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"As a surfer and somebody who’s studied waves and the like, I think it’s fine if people want to live on the coast,\" he says. \"But I don’t think it’s okay to take public money and build structures that adversely affect the beach. I don’t want my money going there.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_49262\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-49262 \" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/surfer1.jpg\" alt=\"Surfers \" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/surfer1.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/surfer1-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">For years surfers have been asking San Francisco to manage the erosion problems at the south end of Ocean Beach. (Photo: Sean Greene/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Translating high-concept plans to work on the ground\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan would cut down on those kinds of costs, but it isn't cheap, either. Estimates for completing all the recommendations are just north of $350 million. Funding has come through for some initial studies, but the vast majority of that money has yet to be raised.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"A lot of the things we're recommending at Ocean Beach are very expensive,\" says Benjamin Grant, who manages the Ocean Beach Master Plan for the \u003ca href=\"http://www.spur.org/\">San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association\u003c/a> (SPUR). \"But you have to set them against the costs of the band-aid measures already taking place.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"alignright\">\n\u003ch4>Dive into the plan and Explore SPUR's \u003ca href=\"http://www.spur.org/featured-project/ocean-beach-master-plan\" target=\"_blank\">Ocean Beach website\u003c/a>\u003c/h4>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://issuu.com/oceanbeachmasterplan/docs/obmp_document_full/11\">Download the Ocean Beach Master Plan\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://oceanbeachbulletin.com/tag/ocean-beach-master-plan/\">Read the Ocean Beach Bulletin's Master Plan coverage\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>SPUR is acting as a facilitator for the project, bringing together the myriad city, state, and federal organizations involved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"We can't close our eyes to what’s coming and it’s definitely going to get worse and not better,\" Grant says. \"If we can find a way to work with those processes to achieve the kinds of outcomes and build the kinds of places we want to have in our city, then we’ll be ahead of the game.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Two other California cities, Pacifica and Ventura, have both undertaken smaller managed-retreat projects. And other places, including New York City and the states around Chesapeake Bay, are beginning to put together their own climate response plans.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For San Francisco, completing the big vision of the Ocean Beach Master Plan is just a first step. Some traffic and engineering studies are underway now, but they’re just the beginning of a decades-long process that will affect the shape of our coast and the lives along it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan also will be closely watched by other coastal cities around the United States, as the sea continues its slow but steady rise.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/49237/san-francisco-a-test-case-for-coping-with-rising-seas","authors":["200"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_9","quest_17"],"tags":["quest_252","quest_11194","quest_13203","quest_2559"],"featImg":"quest_49246","label":"source_quest_49237"},"quest_45614":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_45614","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"45614","score":null,"sort":[1349452049000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"slideshow-an-early-fall-flight-around-the-bay","title":"Slideshow: An Early Fall Flight Around the Bay ","publishDate":1349452049,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>Last week I went on an aerial tour of the San Francisco Bay. David Lewis, the executive director of \u003ca href=\"http://www.savesfbay.org/\">Save the Bay\u003c/a>, narrated. Bill Rush, a volunteer pilot with \u003ca href=\"http://www.lighthawk.org/\">LightHawk\u003c/a>, flew the plane. We saw tidal marsh and salt ponds; the cities, highways and industry that ring the Bay; and a good amount of fog. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It was my first time in such a small plane, and I was surprised at how different it was from approaching SFO in a 747.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I kind of felt like I was playing hooky, even though it was for work. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe src=\"http://kqed03.streamguys.us/anon.kqed/slideshow/The_Bay_From_the_Air_slideshow/_files/iframe.html\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Want more details on the places in the photos? Here are a few notes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cargill's Development Plans\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nKQED Science reporter Lauren Sommer did a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/rough-waters-for-sea-level-rise-planning/\">story\u003c/a> about the proposed Saltworks project last year. Right now the project is on hold, while the developer \u003ca href=\"http://www.rcsaltworks.com/\">DMB Associates\u003c/a> revises its plans. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ravenswood Salt Pond\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCargill sold it to the \u003ca href=\"http://www.fws.gov/desfbay/\">Don Edwards National Wildlife Refuge\u003c/a>. It's now part of the biggest wetland restoration effort on the West Coast. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Oracle and SFO\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nIf you want to see how sea level rise will affect low-lying shoreline areas, try \u003ca href=\"http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central's interactive map\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fog\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nWatch a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/science-on-the-spot-science-of-fog/\">video from Quest\u003c/a> about the science of fog. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Rock Quarry\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nHere it is \u003ca href=\"https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=213807471835276999612.0004cb42a116d93f06caf&msa=0&ll=37.993051,-122.475929&spn=0.103492,0.154324\">on a map\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Highway 37\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nAn \u003ca href=\"http://www.marinij.com/novato/ci_21437499/is-highway-37-destined-become-new-waterway\">article in the Marin I-J\u003c/a> from last month, which includes the notable quote, \"how not to have everyone commuting by gondola,\" says that though Caltrans is aware of the threat from sea level rise, there's currently no money to do anything about it. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Napa-Sonoma Marsh\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCargill had salt ponds in the North bay, too. The \u003ca href=\"http://www.dfg.ca.gov/lands/wa/region3/nsmwa/goals.html\">Napa-Sonoma Marsh\u003c/a> now belongs to the California Department of Fish and game. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Refinery\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCurious about where all the oil refineries are in the Bay Area and California? The \u003ca href=\"http://www.energy.ca.gov/maps/powerplants/refinery_locations.html\">California Energy Commission has a map\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Salt Ponds\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCargill does still \u003ca href=\"http://www.cargill.com/corporate-responsibility/environmental-sustainability/san-francisco-bay-salt/environmental-renaissance/salt-pioneer-industry/index.jsp\">harvest salt\u003c/a> here. If you want to explore former salt ponds in the Don Edwards National Wildlife Refuge, \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/science-hike/don-edwards-sf-bay-national-wildlife-refuge-exploration/\">here's a guide\u003c/a>. (Plus, there's great birding there -- and we're just getting to the season for it.)\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Take a low-flying trip around the Bay (in photos).","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1390006016,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":true,"iframeSrcs":["http://kqed03.streamguys.us/anon.kqed/slideshow/The_Bay_From_the_Air_slideshow/_files/iframe.html"],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":16,"wordCount":357},"headData":{"title":"Slideshow: An Early Fall Flight Around the Bay | KQED","description":"Take a low-flying trip around the Bay (in photos).","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"45614 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?post_type=slideshows&p=45614","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/10/05/slideshow-an-early-fall-flight-around-the-bay/","disqusTitle":"Slideshow: An Early Fall Flight Around the Bay ","path":"/quest/45614/slideshow-an-early-fall-flight-around-the-bay","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Last week I went on an aerial tour of the San Francisco Bay. David Lewis, the executive director of \u003ca href=\"http://www.savesfbay.org/\">Save the Bay\u003c/a>, narrated. Bill Rush, a volunteer pilot with \u003ca href=\"http://www.lighthawk.org/\">LightHawk\u003c/a>, flew the plane. We saw tidal marsh and salt ponds; the cities, highways and industry that ring the Bay; and a good amount of fog. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It was my first time in such a small plane, and I was surprised at how different it was from approaching SFO in a 747.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I kind of felt like I was playing hooky, even though it was for work. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe src=\"http://kqed03.streamguys.us/anon.kqed/slideshow/The_Bay_From_the_Air_slideshow/_files/iframe.html\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Want more details on the places in the photos? Here are a few notes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cargill's Development Plans\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nKQED Science reporter Lauren Sommer did a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/rough-waters-for-sea-level-rise-planning/\">story\u003c/a> about the proposed Saltworks project last year. Right now the project is on hold, while the developer \u003ca href=\"http://www.rcsaltworks.com/\">DMB Associates\u003c/a> revises its plans. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Ravenswood Salt Pond\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCargill sold it to the \u003ca href=\"http://www.fws.gov/desfbay/\">Don Edwards National Wildlife Refuge\u003c/a>. It's now part of the biggest wetland restoration effort on the West Coast. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Oracle and SFO\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nIf you want to see how sea level rise will affect low-lying shoreline areas, try \u003ca href=\"http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central's interactive map\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fog\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nWatch a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/science-on-the-spot-science-of-fog/\">video from Quest\u003c/a> about the science of fog. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Rock Quarry\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nHere it is \u003ca href=\"https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=213807471835276999612.0004cb42a116d93f06caf&msa=0&ll=37.993051,-122.475929&spn=0.103492,0.154324\">on a map\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Highway 37\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nAn \u003ca href=\"http://www.marinij.com/novato/ci_21437499/is-highway-37-destined-become-new-waterway\">article in the Marin I-J\u003c/a> from last month, which includes the notable quote, \"how not to have everyone commuting by gondola,\" says that though Caltrans is aware of the threat from sea level rise, there's currently no money to do anything about it. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Napa-Sonoma Marsh\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCargill had salt ponds in the North bay, too. The \u003ca href=\"http://www.dfg.ca.gov/lands/wa/region3/nsmwa/goals.html\">Napa-Sonoma Marsh\u003c/a> now belongs to the California Department of Fish and game. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>The Refinery\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCurious about where all the oil refineries are in the Bay Area and California? The \u003ca href=\"http://www.energy.ca.gov/maps/powerplants/refinery_locations.html\">California Energy Commission has a map\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Salt Ponds\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nCargill does still \u003ca href=\"http://www.cargill.com/corporate-responsibility/environmental-sustainability/san-francisco-bay-salt/environmental-renaissance/salt-pioneer-industry/index.jsp\">harvest salt\u003c/a> here. If you want to explore former salt ponds in the Don Edwards National Wildlife Refuge, \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/science-hike/don-edwards-sf-bay-national-wildlife-refuge-exploration/\">here's a guide\u003c/a>. (Plus, there's great birding there -- and we're just getting to the season for it.)\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/45614/slideshow-an-early-fall-flight-around-the-bay","authors":["200"],"categories":["quest_4","quest_6","quest_9"],"tags":["quest_11518","quest_3415","quest_2423","quest_2487","quest_2559","quest_2658"],"featImg":"quest_45666","label":"quest"},"quest_45029":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_45029","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"45029","score":null,"sort":[1348732818000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"dry-and-salted","title":"Dry and Salted","publishDate":1348732818,"format":"video","headTitle":"Heat and Harvest | QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"term":13295,"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted\u003c/strong> examines the major wildcards in California's farming future: water and salt. Growers are having to learn to get along with less of the first and more of the second. That can mean leaving once-productive fields fallow or having to find less water-intensive crops and irrigation methods. But water quality is also presenting a challenge as growers find themselves having to cope with salt in their groundwater and the threat of encroaching saltwater from rising seas. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted \u003c/strong>is one of the three stories in \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Heat and Harvest\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/heat-and-harvest/\" target=\"_blank\">Heat and Harvest\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, a half-hour documentary on how climate change is challenging California’s $30 billion agricultural industry. \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest \u003c/strong>is a co-production of KQED and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a> and airs on KQED channel 9 on Friday Sept. 28 and Monday Oct. 1 at 7:30 pm. The film also airs on PBS stations around California in September and October. Check local listings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch1>Volatile weather creates dramatic changes for California farmers\u003c/h1>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nBy Mark Schapiro\u003cbr>\nCenter for Investigative Reporting\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This article is part 1 of a two-part series published in newspapers across California on Thurs. Sept. 27.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ten miles outside of Modesto, in the farming town of Hughson just off Highway 99, the \u003ca title=\"Duarte Nursery\" href=\"http://duartenursery.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Duarte Nursery\u003c/a> is at the front line of dramatic changes now under way in California’s immense agriculture industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45068\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45068\" title=\"John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The family-run nursery, founded in 1976, is one of the largest in the United States, and there’s a good chance the berries, nuts and citrus fruits eaten across the West began their journey to market as seedlings in Duarte’s 30 acres of greenhouses, labs and breeding stations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nursery’s owners have built a thriving business using state-of-the-art techniques to develop varieties adapted to the particular conditions and pests California farmers face.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These days, according to John Duarte, president of the nursery, that means breeding for elevated levels of heat and salt, which researchers say are symptoms of climate change – even if Duarte doesn’t necessarily see it that way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Whether it’s carbon built up in the atmosphere or just friggin’ bad luck,” he said, “the conditions are straining us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The cause of Duarte’s woes might be in dispute among farmers in California’s $31 billion agriculture industry. But the symptoms are clear. From the vast fields of fruits and nuts in the Central Valley to the wineries of Napa and Sonoma, the increasingly volatile weather is altering the fundamental conditions for growing food, California’s largest industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Farmers are in many ways at the front line of climate change. They conjure food from soil, sunlight and water – all of which are profoundly affected, scientists say, by climate change. Stresses have emerged across the state as water supplies tighten. Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the nurseries and colleges in what Duarte calls “the Silicon Valley of agricultural innovation,” these changing conditions have forced botanists to look for varieties of almond, pepper, citrus, cherry and other crops resistant to drought and salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other interests also are bracing for dramatic change. The crop insurance industry is calculating potential billion-dollar losses from extreme weather conditions, as well as the floods and fires that occur in their wake. Climate change could join the ranks of earthquake and hurricane insurance as a special – and hugely expensive – problem for insurers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45066\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45066\" title=\"Plant clone\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery, holds a plant that he's breeding to be more tolerant to heat and salt. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the past 20 years, there has been more than $500 million in crop losses from heat waves, floods and ill-timed rainstorms in the heavily agricultural counties of San Joaquin, Merced, Kings, Kern, Napa and Sonoma, according to a study last year by a team of Stanford University researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Compared to 20 or 30 years ago, farmers are recognizing a lot more risk factors in climate events,” said Jeff Yasui, director of the \u003ca title=\"USDA Risk Management Agency\" href=\"http://www.rma.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency office\u003c/a> in California, which handles crop insurance in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate and agriculture scientists predicted much of this. \u003ca title=\"Charles Kolstad bio\" href=\"http://www2.bren.ucsb.edu/~kolstad/HmPg/\" target=\"_blank\">Charles Kolstad\u003c/a>, an environmental economist at UC Santa Barbara, said California agriculture is being hit with a trifecta of converging forces prompted by climate change: longer seasons of extreme heat, shorter cold seasons and dwindling water supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Yields of key crops are expected to drop significantly over the coming decades as climate change alters these growing conditions, according to a report Kolstad co-wrote for the state Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Commission and published last fall in the peer-reviewed journal Climatic Change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists believe the Earth’s average temperature will rise at least 2 degrees in the next four decades – their most conservative estimate. Along the way, the yields of citrus crops in the San Joaquin Valley are expected to drop about 18 percent, grapes about 6 percent, and cherries and other orchard crops about 9 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those crops – accustomed to the cooler edges of California’s climate – are showing declining yields already, according to the \u003ca title=\"National Agricultural Statistics Service\" href=\"http://www.nass.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service\u003c/a>. That could mean higher prices for consumers as the supply shrinks. This summer’s record droughts in the Midwest also prompted the USDA to predict a similar rise in prices driven by devastated yields for corn and soybeans, the primary food for chicken and cattle nationwide.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kolstad and other scientists have focused on tree-based perennial crops because they are fixed in 25- to 30-year cycles and cannot easily be adapted to changing conditions. Switching a tree orchard from cherries, for example, to more heat-tolerant pistachios, avocados or tangerines can cost millions of dollars before the trees start bearing marketable fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If California’s water crisis persists, seasonal vegetables and fruits also will be dramatically affected. Some already are.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Much of the southern Central Valley, spreading along either side of Interstate 5, is now a patchwork of fallow fields, according to Gayle Holman with the \u003ca title=\"Westlands Water District\" href=\"http://www.westlandswater.org/wwd/default2.asp?cwide=1280\" target=\"_blank\">Westlands Water District\u003c/a> in Fresno. Thousands of acres that once grew onions, tomatoes, melons and other crops have been set aside by farmers because they can no longer obtain, or afford, water – a scarcity, scientists say, that is significantly due to the dramatic shifts in the timing of rainfalls in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those grower cutbacks are felt most acutely in Central Valley towns like Mendota, where farm workers can no longer find the seasonal fieldwork upon which they once relied. Official unemployment in the area ranges between 15 and 20 percent. Studies by the state’s Employment Development Department show an inverse correlation between water allocations and unemployment in the valley: The water supply goes down, and the unemployment rate goes up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>One problem, then another\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like just about everything having to do with climate change, the consequences unfold like a sequence of trapdoors. First, there’s the temperature, a jagged progression over the past decade of unusual highs and lows occurring at times of the year that can debilitate growing crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45073\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45073\" title=\"California Aqueduct\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Scientists warn that less water is coming into the system. Photo: Gabriela Quirós.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Then there’s the water. California’s water sources are caught in a pincer: More water is needed at a time when less water is being delivered into the network of canals carrying it from the north to the agricultural regions in the south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A precipitous drop in snowfall has led to declining water runoff in the San Joaquin and Sacramento rivers in the spring and summer months, when it’s central to irrigation in the valley. Over the past century, the state \u003ca title=\"Department of Water Resources\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">Department of Water Resources\u003c/a> has measured a steady 10 percent decline in runoff from April to July. In recent years, however, the rate has accelerated to as much as 20 percent during those critical months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For the three years between 2006 and 2009, the runoff amounted to the equivalent of two “normal” years, according to John Leahigh, chief of operations planning for the \u003ca title=\"California State Water Project\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/swp/\" target=\"_blank\">California State Water Project\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, such calculations appear to be the new normal. This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In February, the Department of Water Resources cut the delivery of water to valley farmers from 60 to 50 percent of their allotment – a practically unprecedented reduction that late in the growing season, according to Leahigh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Parts of the valley supplied by the federal water project have been cut even more severely, to 30 percent of their normal allotment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farmers in the valley generally blame the drop-off in water on the 2007 state Supreme Court decision affirming the need for water to preserve Pacific smelt and other endangered species.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by the \u003ca title=\"Public Policy Institute of California\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a>, however, concludes that the roughly 300,000 acre-feet of water diverted to comply with the Endangered Species Act constitutes no more than 15 to 20 percent of the reduced water flow to the valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rather, the overall pool of water is shrinking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s less water coming into the system,” said \u003ca title=\"Francis Chung bio\" href=\"http://baydeltaoffice.water.ca.gov/modeling/keypersonnel.cfm\" target=\"_blank\">Francis Chung\u003c/a>, chief of the Modeling Support Branch for the Department of Water Resources. “The water that used to exist is now coming earlier in the year. So there’s less water to distribute (to the valley) during the summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Rising sea levels threaten water supply\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another growing problem has been rising sea levels associated with climate change. The San Francisco Bay, according to a recent assessment by the \u003ca title=\"National Research Council\" href=\"http://nationalacademies.org/nrc/\" target=\"_blank\">National Research Council\u003c/a>, is projected to rise by as much as 18 inches, and potentially triple that by the end of the century. Those inches translate into waves of new salt sources lapping into the delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Less water channeled into the delta from the Sierra means less available freshwater to dilute the onrush of salt, which has been pushing steadily eastward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For each foot in sea level, 200,000 acre-feet of freshwater, known as “carriage water,” is needed to hold the line on the saltwater. That amounts to one-fifth the volume of Folsom Lake each year, according to Chung, and the diversions will only increase as the sea level rises.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by UC Davis estimates that if salinity continues to rise at the current rate, by 2030, the financial costs to the Central Valley could be huge: as much as $1 billion to $1.5 billion a year in decreased agricultural activity, amounting to some 27,000 to 53,000 jobs lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45064\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45064\" title=\"Almond leaves burned by salt\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Salt in the groundwater burns almond leaves and reduces a tree's yield. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the next 40 years, salinity is expected to increase by 4 to 26 percent, depending on the time of year, at the two water-pumping stations outside of Tracy. From there, most of the water destined for the valley is sent southward, according to a study by the Public Policy Institute of California and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Watershed Sciences\" href=\"http://watershed.ucdavis.edu/front?destination=node/116\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca title=\"Ellen Hanak bio\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/bio.asp?i=72\" target=\"_blank\">Ellen Hanak\u003c/a>, senior policy fellow at the institute, explained that inside the delta, the network of waterways helps to dilute the salt content. But in the Central Valley, she said, there’s not enough freshwater to reduce the salt’s impact. That’s partly the result of farmers using more targeted irrigation to reduce waste; they no longer have the excess spillover to mix with the salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no drainage,” she said. “They can’t get rid of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As freshwater supplies decrease, the decisions over how to use it are likely to become even more difficult.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Water used to push the ocean back is water not used for agriculture,” said Tara Smith, an analyst and water modeling expert for the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, the liquid barricade needed to hold back the ocean is drawn from a dwindling amount of freshwater. The reduction in allocations issued by the water board in February means that more water is necessary to hold back the advancing Pacific Ocean and push the saltwater intrusion westward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have to keep reducing the volume of exports from the delta because of the increased volume needed of carriage water,” said Chung at the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003cbr>\nDaniel Cozad, executive director, Central Valley Salinity Coalition \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Nevertheless, 40 railroad cars’ worth of salt – about 500,000 tons a year – flow daily out of the delta into the fields of the Central Valley. That adds extra salt to valley soils already made salty by the intensive pumping of groundwater from what millions of years ago was the ocean floor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Daniel Cozad, executive director of the \u003ca title=\"Central Valley Salinity Coalition\" href=\"http://cvsalinity.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Central Valley Salinity Coalition\u003c/a>, a group of local farmers, businessmen and government officials, said some farmers in the western valley are being forced to adapt by switching from salt-sensitive crops like strawberries and avocados to less sensitive – and less profitable – crops like alfalfa and wheat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unfortunately,” Cozad said, “the higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was edited by Robert Salladay and copy edited by Nikki Frick and Christine Lee. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This story was produced by the nonprofit \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, the country’s largest investigative reporting team, in collaboration with KQED. Mark Schapiro can be reached at \u003ca href=\"mailto:mschapiro@cironline.org\">mschapiro@cironline.org\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Salty groundwater is ruining almond crops in the Central Valley, and scientists expect sea level rise to worsen the problem. This video is part of the Heat and Harvest series, co-produced by KQED and the Center for Investigative Reporting.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1457566998,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":56,"wordCount":2448},"headData":{"title":"Dry and Salted | KQED","description":"Salty groundwater is ruining almond crops in the Central Valley, and scientists expect sea level rise to worsen the problem. This video is part of the Heat and Harvest series, co-produced by KQED and the Center for Investigative Reporting.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"45029 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?post_type=videos&p=45029","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/09/27/dry-and-salted/","disqusTitle":"Dry and Salted","videoEmbed":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5qlmcD7ceY","path":"/quest/45029/dry-and-salted","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted\u003c/strong> examines the major wildcards in California's farming future: water and salt. Growers are having to learn to get along with less of the first and more of the second. That can mean leaving once-productive fields fallow or having to find less water-intensive crops and irrigation methods. But water quality is also presenting a challenge as growers find themselves having to cope with salt in their groundwater and the threat of encroaching saltwater from rising seas. (Reporter: Mark Schapiro / Producer: Serene Fang)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Dry and Salted \u003c/strong>is one of the three stories in \u003cstrong>\u003ca title=\"Heat and Harvest\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/video/heat-and-harvest/\" target=\"_blank\">Heat and Harvest\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>, a half-hour documentary on how climate change is challenging California’s $30 billion agricultural industry. \u003cstrong>Heat and Harvest \u003c/strong>is a co-production of KQED and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a> and airs on KQED channel 9 on Friday Sept. 28 and Monday Oct. 1 at 7:30 pm. The film also airs on PBS stations around California in September and October. Check local listings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003cbr>\n\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch1>Volatile weather creates dramatic changes for California farmers\u003c/h1>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\nBy Mark Schapiro\u003cbr>\nCenter for Investigative Reporting\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This article is part 1 of a two-part series published in newspapers across California on Thurs. Sept. 27.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ten miles outside of Modesto, in the farming town of Hughson just off Highway 99, the \u003ca title=\"Duarte Nursery\" href=\"http://duartenursery.com/\" target=\"_blank\">Duarte Nursery\u003c/a> is at the front line of dramatic changes now under way in California’s immense agriculture industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45068\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45068\" title=\"John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa08_Jduarte_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The family-run nursery, founded in 1976, is one of the largest in the United States, and there’s a good chance the berries, nuts and citrus fruits eaten across the West began their journey to market as seedlings in Duarte’s 30 acres of greenhouses, labs and breeding stations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The nursery’s owners have built a thriving business using state-of-the-art techniques to develop varieties adapted to the particular conditions and pests California farmers face.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These days, according to John Duarte, president of the nursery, that means breeding for elevated levels of heat and salt, which researchers say are symptoms of climate change – even if Duarte doesn’t necessarily see it that way.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Whether it’s carbon built up in the atmosphere or just friggin’ bad luck,” he said, “the conditions are straining us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The cause of Duarte’s woes might be in dispute among farmers in California’s $31 billion agriculture industry. But the symptoms are clear. From the vast fields of fruits and nuts in the Central Valley to the wineries of Napa and Sonoma, the increasingly volatile weather is altering the fundamental conditions for growing food, California’s largest industry.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Farmers are in many ways at the front line of climate change. They conjure food from soil, sunlight and water – all of which are profoundly affected, scientists say, by climate change. Stresses have emerged across the state as water supplies tighten. Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change already has cost farmers money. In the Central Valley, some growers are paying more for seeds designed to withstand the new extremes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At the nurseries and colleges in what Duarte calls “the Silicon Valley of agricultural innovation,” these changing conditions have forced botanists to look for varieties of almond, pepper, citrus, cherry and other crops resistant to drought and salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other interests also are bracing for dramatic change. The crop insurance industry is calculating potential billion-dollar losses from extreme weather conditions, as well as the floods and fires that occur in their wake. Climate change could join the ranks of earthquake and hurricane insurance as a special – and hugely expensive – problem for insurers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45066\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45066\" title=\"Plant clone\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa04_clone_resized-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">John Duarte, of Duarte Nursery, holds a plant that he's breeding to be more tolerant to heat and salt. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the past 20 years, there has been more than $500 million in crop losses from heat waves, floods and ill-timed rainstorms in the heavily agricultural counties of San Joaquin, Merced, Kings, Kern, Napa and Sonoma, according to a study last year by a team of Stanford University researchers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Compared to 20 or 30 years ago, farmers are recognizing a lot more risk factors in climate events,” said Jeff Yasui, director of the \u003ca title=\"USDA Risk Management Agency\" href=\"http://www.rma.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency office\u003c/a> in California, which handles crop insurance in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate and agriculture scientists predicted much of this. \u003ca title=\"Charles Kolstad bio\" href=\"http://www2.bren.ucsb.edu/~kolstad/HmPg/\" target=\"_blank\">Charles Kolstad\u003c/a>, an environmental economist at UC Santa Barbara, said California agriculture is being hit with a trifecta of converging forces prompted by climate change: longer seasons of extreme heat, shorter cold seasons and dwindling water supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Rain is coming at unexpected times. Winters aren’t getting cold enough. And salt from the rising ocean is making its way into Central Valley water.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Yields of key crops are expected to drop significantly over the coming decades as climate change alters these growing conditions, according to a report Kolstad co-wrote for the state Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Commission and published last fall in the peer-reviewed journal Climatic Change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate scientists believe the Earth’s average temperature will rise at least 2 degrees in the next four decades – their most conservative estimate. Along the way, the yields of citrus crops in the San Joaquin Valley are expected to drop about 18 percent, grapes about 6 percent, and cherries and other orchard crops about 9 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those crops – accustomed to the cooler edges of California’s climate – are showing declining yields already, according to the \u003ca title=\"National Agricultural Statistics Service\" href=\"http://www.nass.usda.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service\u003c/a>. That could mean higher prices for consumers as the supply shrinks. This summer’s record droughts in the Midwest also prompted the USDA to predict a similar rise in prices driven by devastated yields for corn and soybeans, the primary food for chicken and cattle nationwide.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Kolstad and other scientists have focused on tree-based perennial crops because they are fixed in 25- to 30-year cycles and cannot easily be adapted to changing conditions. Switching a tree orchard from cherries, for example, to more heat-tolerant pistachios, avocados or tangerines can cost millions of dollars before the trees start bearing marketable fruit.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If California’s water crisis persists, seasonal vegetables and fruits also will be dramatically affected. Some already are.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Much of the southern Central Valley, spreading along either side of Interstate 5, is now a patchwork of fallow fields, according to Gayle Holman with the \u003ca title=\"Westlands Water District\" href=\"http://www.westlandswater.org/wwd/default2.asp?cwide=1280\" target=\"_blank\">Westlands Water District\u003c/a> in Fresno. Thousands of acres that once grew onions, tomatoes, melons and other crops have been set aside by farmers because they can no longer obtain, or afford, water – a scarcity, scientists say, that is significantly due to the dramatic shifts in the timing of rainfalls in the state.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those grower cutbacks are felt most acutely in Central Valley towns like Mendota, where farm workers can no longer find the seasonal fieldwork upon which they once relied. Official unemployment in the area ranges between 15 and 20 percent. Studies by the state’s Employment Development Department show an inverse correlation between water allocations and unemployment in the valley: The water supply goes down, and the unemployment rate goes up.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>One problem, then another\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Like just about everything having to do with climate change, the consequences unfold like a sequence of trapdoors. First, there’s the temperature, a jagged progression over the past decade of unusual highs and lows occurring at times of the year that can debilitate growing crops.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45073\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45073\" title=\"California Aqueduct\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/California_Aqueduct_and_fields_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Scientists warn that less water is coming into the system. Photo: Gabriela Quirós.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Then there’s the water. California’s water sources are caught in a pincer: More water is needed at a time when less water is being delivered into the network of canals carrying it from the north to the agricultural regions in the south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A precipitous drop in snowfall has led to declining water runoff in the San Joaquin and Sacramento rivers in the spring and summer months, when it’s central to irrigation in the valley. Over the past century, the state \u003ca title=\"Department of Water Resources\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/\" target=\"_blank\">Department of Water Resources\u003c/a> has measured a steady 10 percent decline in runoff from April to July. In recent years, however, the rate has accelerated to as much as 20 percent during those critical months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For the three years between 2006 and 2009, the runoff amounted to the equivalent of two “normal” years, according to John Leahigh, chief of operations planning for the \u003ca title=\"California State Water Project\" href=\"http://www.water.ca.gov/swp/\" target=\"_blank\">California State Water Project\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In fact, such calculations appear to be the new normal. This year, Sacramento Delta water supplies are not expected to come anywhere close to filling the irrigation needs of Central Valley farmers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In February, the Department of Water Resources cut the delivery of water to valley farmers from 60 to 50 percent of their allotment – a practically unprecedented reduction that late in the growing season, according to Leahigh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Parts of the valley supplied by the federal water project have been cut even more severely, to 30 percent of their normal allotment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Farmers in the valley generally blame the drop-off in water on the 2007 state Supreme Court decision affirming the need for water to preserve Pacific smelt and other endangered species.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by the \u003ca title=\"Public Policy Institute of California\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/home.asp\" target=\"_blank\">Public Policy Institute of California\u003c/a>, however, concludes that the roughly 300,000 acre-feet of water diverted to comply with the Endangered Species Act constitutes no more than 15 to 20 percent of the reduced water flow to the valley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rather, the overall pool of water is shrinking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s less water coming into the system,” said \u003ca title=\"Francis Chung bio\" href=\"http://baydeltaoffice.water.ca.gov/modeling/keypersonnel.cfm\" target=\"_blank\">Francis Chung\u003c/a>, chief of the Modeling Support Branch for the Department of Water Resources. “The water that used to exist is now coming earlier in the year. So there’s less water to distribute (to the valley) during the summer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Rising sea levels threaten water supply\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another growing problem has been rising sea levels associated with climate change. The San Francisco Bay, according to a recent assessment by the \u003ca title=\"National Research Council\" href=\"http://nationalacademies.org/nrc/\" target=\"_blank\">National Research Council\u003c/a>, is projected to rise by as much as 18 inches, and potentially triple that by the end of the century. Those inches translate into waves of new salt sources lapping into the delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Less water channeled into the delta from the Sierra means less available freshwater to dilute the onrush of salt, which has been pushing steadily eastward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For each foot in sea level, 200,000 acre-feet of freshwater, known as “carriage water,” is needed to hold the line on the saltwater. That amounts to one-fifth the volume of Folsom Lake each year, according to Chung, and the diversions will only increase as the sea level rises.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A study by UC Davis estimates that if salinity continues to rise at the current rate, by 2030, the financial costs to the Central Valley could be huge: as much as $1 billion to $1.5 billion a year in decreased agricultural activity, amounting to some 27,000 to 53,000 jobs lost.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_45064\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-45064\" title=\"Almond leaves burned by salt\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/sa01_leaves_resized1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Salt in the groundwater burns almond leaves and reduces a tree's yield. Photo: Center for Investigative Reporting.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Over the next 40 years, salinity is expected to increase by 4 to 26 percent, depending on the time of year, at the two water-pumping stations outside of Tracy. From there, most of the water destined for the valley is sent southward, according to a study by the Public Policy Institute of California and the \u003ca title=\"Center for Watershed Sciences\" href=\"http://watershed.ucdavis.edu/front?destination=node/116\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca title=\"Ellen Hanak bio\" href=\"http://www.ppic.org/main/bio.asp?i=72\" target=\"_blank\">Ellen Hanak\u003c/a>, senior policy fellow at the institute, explained that inside the delta, the network of waterways helps to dilute the salt content. But in the Central Valley, she said, there’s not enough freshwater to reduce the salt’s impact. That’s partly the result of farmers using more targeted irrigation to reduce waste; they no longer have the excess spillover to mix with the salt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s no drainage,” she said. “They can’t get rid of it.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As freshwater supplies decrease, the decisions over how to use it are likely to become even more difficult.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Water used to push the ocean back is water not used for agriculture,” said Tara Smith, an analyst and water modeling expert for the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In other words, the liquid barricade needed to hold back the ocean is drawn from a dwindling amount of freshwater. The reduction in allocations issued by the water board in February means that more water is necessary to hold back the advancing Pacific Ocean and push the saltwater intrusion westward.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to have to keep reducing the volume of exports from the delta because of the increased volume needed of carriage water,” said Chung at the Department of Water Resources.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">“The higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003cbr>\nDaniel Cozad, executive director, Central Valley Salinity Coalition \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Nevertheless, 40 railroad cars’ worth of salt – about 500,000 tons a year – flow daily out of the delta into the fields of the Central Valley. That adds extra salt to valley soils already made salty by the intensive pumping of groundwater from what millions of years ago was the ocean floor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Daniel Cozad, executive director of the \u003ca title=\"Central Valley Salinity Coalition\" href=\"http://cvsalinity.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Central Valley Salinity Coalition\u003c/a>, a group of local farmers, businessmen and government officials, said some farmers in the western valley are being forced to adapt by switching from salt-sensitive crops like strawberries and avocados to less sensitive – and less profitable – crops like alfalfa and wheat.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Unfortunately,” Cozad said, “the higher the value of the crop, the more sensitive it is to salt.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was edited by Robert Salladay and copy edited by Nikki Frick and Christine Lee. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This story was produced by the nonprofit \u003ca title=\"Center for Investigative Reporting\" href=\"http://cironline.org/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Investigative Reporting\u003c/a>, the country’s largest investigative reporting team, in collaboration with KQED. Mark Schapiro can be reached at \u003ca href=\"mailto:mschapiro@cironline.org\">mschapiro@cironline.org\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/45029/dry-and-salted","authors":["10385"],"series":["quest_13295"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_9","quest_3229","quest_3422","quest_3233","quest_11766"],"tags":["quest_85","quest_11496","quest_11484","quest_533","quest_11498","quest_621","quest_11500","quest_11463","quest_11499","quest_11497","quest_11495","quest_2559","quest_2893","quest_3071","quest_3108"],"collections":["quest_3354"],"featImg":"quest_45066","label":"quest_13295"},"quest_38415":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_38415","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"38415","score":null,"sort":[1337382014000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"californias-deadlocked-delta-is-carbon-farming-the-future","title":"California's Deadlocked Delta: Is Carbon Farming the Future?","publishDate":1337382014,"format":"audio","headTitle":"California’s Deadlocked Delta | QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"term":11058,"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/05/2012-05-21-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is the third story in our three-part \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/series/californias-deadlocked-delta/\">series on California's Delta\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38425\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Farming-marquee.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Farming-marquee-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"Farming-marquee\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38425\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tules on Twitchell Island in the Delta. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With thousands of acres of rich farmland, the Delta has a long agricultural legacy. But farming there can be a risky business. Dozens of farms have been flooded over the past half century as aging levees have collapsed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That became a reality for farmer Rudy Mussi on the morning of June 3, 2004. It was clear, sunny day. \"You never expect a flood in the summer months,\" says Mussi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mussi was growing corn and asparagus on lower Jones Tract, an island in the Delta, 10 miles west of Stockton. That morning, he got a phone call. \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/06/04/MNG1G70S3A1.DTL&ao=all\">Water was flooding\u003c/a> onto his farmland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Your heart stops for a second or two and then realism sets in. And you just start moving your equipment and get it to high ground,\" says Mussi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How did a flood happen a on a sunny day? It's because of a basic rule of physics. Mussi farmed on an island below sea level, like a lot of the islands in the Delta. The Delta used to be a huge swath of wetlands, where two major rivers met San Francisco Bay. Today, earthen levees hold that water back – most of the time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Once a break occurs, you know, there's no way you're gonna stop that, not with 10 feet of water on the other side,\" Mussi says. Draining the island and repairing the levees around Jones Tract cost about $90 million. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38449\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 232px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingLevee.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingLevee-232x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarmingLevee\" width=\"232\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38449\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The levee break on Jones Tract in 2004. (Photo: CA Department of Water Resources)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It wasn't an isolated incident. Over the last century, more than 150 levees have failed in the Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Delta Infrastructure at Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is how we get ourselves in kind of an arms race between the water and the land,\" says Jeff Mount, professor with the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California-Davis. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Levee-building began in the 1850s, when settlers came to the Delta for the rich soil. More than a thousand miles of levees were built. \"This network of levees through time had to get bigger and bigger for a very basic reason: the land has been steadily lowering,\" says Mount.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As farmers exposed the rich peat soil, it started decomposing. The land level dropped; \"In some places they talked about four inches per year,\" says Mount. Today, it's less than an inch per year thanks to better farming practices. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Add up all those inches over the past century and some islands are now 30 feet below sea level. That puts a lot of stress on the levees. There are also other concerns: rising sea levels and extreme floods. \"And then the big 800-pound gorilla in the room – we're due for a very large earthquake on the San Andreas system.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Add up all these risks and Mount says there's a two-thirds \u003ca href=\"http://californiawaterblog.com/2011/03/09/sea-level-rise-and-delta-subsidence%E2%80%94the-demise-of-subsided-delta-islands/\">chance of a catastrophic levee failure\u003c/a> in the next 50 years. That, of course, affects farmers and communities in the Delta, but it could also impact California's water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The raindrops that fall in Mount Shasta are consumed by people in San Diego. Water moves a great distance and this is one of the critical hubs in that system,\" says Mount.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fixing the Delta's levees is estimated to cost billions. But on some islands, scientists are experimenting with a new fix.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Farming Carbon\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38450\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 219px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingsoil.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingsoil-219x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarmingsoil\" width=\"219\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Peat soil samples on Twitchell Island. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>On a windy day on Twitchell Island in the Delta, ecologist Lisa Windham-Myers of the US Geological Survey pushes her way through a wetland filled with a tall, reed-like plant known as \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoenoplectus_acutus\">tule\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The plant grows... some of these are 16 feet tall. They're just huge,\" she says. That growth is changing the ground we're standing on. Windham-Myers pulls out a sample of the dark peat soil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wetland \u003ca href=\"http://ca.water.usgs.gov/Carbon_Farm/RandD.html\">produces soil at a rapid rate\u003c/a> – four inches a year on average. That's huge, says USGS scientist Brian Bergamaschi, in a place where the land is sinking. \"These islands are like bowls and the way we see projects like this is you want to fill up the middle of that bowl and help level out the whole island.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Planting wetlands like this one could raise the land level and water table on the inside of levees, relieving some of the pressure. But why would farmers want to replace cash crops with tule? Windham-Myers points to the soil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is basically almost 100 percent carbon. These take up far more than a typical forest environment,\" she says. California is setting up a market for carbon, as part of the state's effort to cut global warming emissions. Early next year, companies that need to reduce their emissions could pay farmers to store carbon in wetlands like this.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38451\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarming2.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarming2.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarming2\" width=\"320\" height=\"199\" class=\"size-full wp-image-38451\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">USGS scientist Brian Bergamaschi talks with Delta farmer Al Medvitch. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Today, two farmers are here checking out the project: Steve Mello, a Delta farmer on Tyler Island and Al Medvitch, a farmer in the Montezuma Hills. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The potential has been demonstrated well. You guys are standing in the middle of it. But in order to move from here to market, we need to develop a lot more techniques so people can come and verify that the carbon is stored,\" says Brian Bergamaschi, describing how wetland farming might work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both farmers seem open to the idea. But Mello says ultimately, it depends on the bottom line. \"It would absolutely need to cash flow. While it could dovetail with levee stability, it would still need to generate enough to amortize your property value.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, Mello says assuming carbon prices are high enough, growing patches of wetlands could be a feasible way to improve the levees and to stay farming.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"California’s Delta has a rich agricultural legacy, but farming there can be a risky business. Dozens of farms have been flooded over the past half century as aging levees have collapsed. Now, scientists are encouraging farmers to switch to a new crop. Instead of growing vegetables, they’d grow something that has all but disappeared in the Delta: wetlands. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1340306800,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":28,"wordCount":1005},"headData":{"title":"California's Deadlocked Delta: Is Carbon Farming the Future? | KQED","description":"California’s Delta has a rich agricultural legacy, but farming there can be a risky business. Dozens of farms have been flooded over the past half century as aging levees have collapsed. Now, scientists are encouraging farmers to switch to a new crop. Instead of growing vegetables, they’d grow something that has all but disappeared in the Delta: wetlands. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"38415 http://science.kqed.org/quest/audio/californias-deadlocked-delta-is-carbon-farming-the-future/","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/05/18/californias-deadlocked-delta-is-carbon-farming-the-future/","disqusTitle":"California's Deadlocked Delta: Is Carbon Farming the Future?","path":"/quest/38415/californias-deadlocked-delta-is-carbon-farming-the-future","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/05/2012-05-21-quest.mp3","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/05/2012-05-21-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This is the third story in our three-part \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/series/californias-deadlocked-delta/\">series on California's Delta\u003c/a>.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38425\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Farming-marquee.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/Farming-marquee-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"Farming-marquee\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38425\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tules on Twitchell Island in the Delta. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>With thousands of acres of rich farmland, the Delta has a long agricultural legacy. But farming there can be a risky business. Dozens of farms have been flooded over the past half century as aging levees have collapsed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That became a reality for farmer Rudy Mussi on the morning of June 3, 2004. It was clear, sunny day. \"You never expect a flood in the summer months,\" says Mussi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mussi was growing corn and asparagus on lower Jones Tract, an island in the Delta, 10 miles west of Stockton. That morning, he got a phone call. \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/06/04/MNG1G70S3A1.DTL&ao=all\">Water was flooding\u003c/a> onto his farmland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Your heart stops for a second or two and then realism sets in. And you just start moving your equipment and get it to high ground,\" says Mussi.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How did a flood happen a on a sunny day? It's because of a basic rule of physics. Mussi farmed on an island below sea level, like a lot of the islands in the Delta. The Delta used to be a huge swath of wetlands, where two major rivers met San Francisco Bay. Today, earthen levees hold that water back – most of the time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"Once a break occurs, you know, there's no way you're gonna stop that, not with 10 feet of water on the other side,\" Mussi says. Draining the island and repairing the levees around Jones Tract cost about $90 million. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38449\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 232px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingLevee.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingLevee-232x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarmingLevee\" width=\"232\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38449\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The levee break on Jones Tract in 2004. (Photo: CA Department of Water Resources)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It wasn't an isolated incident. Over the last century, more than 150 levees have failed in the Delta.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Delta Infrastructure at Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is how we get ourselves in kind of an arms race between the water and the land,\" says Jeff Mount, professor with the Center for Watershed Sciences at the University of California-Davis. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Levee-building began in the 1850s, when settlers came to the Delta for the rich soil. More than a thousand miles of levees were built. \"This network of levees through time had to get bigger and bigger for a very basic reason: the land has been steadily lowering,\" says Mount.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As farmers exposed the rich peat soil, it started decomposing. The land level dropped; \"In some places they talked about four inches per year,\" says Mount. Today, it's less than an inch per year thanks to better farming practices. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Add up all those inches over the past century and some islands are now 30 feet below sea level. That puts a lot of stress on the levees. There are also other concerns: rising sea levels and extreme floods. \"And then the big 800-pound gorilla in the room – we're due for a very large earthquake on the San Andreas system.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Add up all these risks and Mount says there's a two-thirds \u003ca href=\"http://californiawaterblog.com/2011/03/09/sea-level-rise-and-delta-subsidence%E2%80%94the-demise-of-subsided-delta-islands/\">chance of a catastrophic levee failure\u003c/a> in the next 50 years. That, of course, affects farmers and communities in the Delta, but it could also impact California's water supply.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The raindrops that fall in Mount Shasta are consumed by people in San Diego. Water moves a great distance and this is one of the critical hubs in that system,\" says Mount.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fixing the Delta's levees is estimated to cost billions. But on some islands, scientists are experimenting with a new fix.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Farming Carbon\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38450\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 219px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingsoil.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarmingsoil-219x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarmingsoil\" width=\"219\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-38450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Peat soil samples on Twitchell Island. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>On a windy day on Twitchell Island in the Delta, ecologist Lisa Windham-Myers of the US Geological Survey pushes her way through a wetland filled with a tall, reed-like plant known as \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoenoplectus_acutus\">tule\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The plant grows... some of these are 16 feet tall. They're just huge,\" she says. That growth is changing the ground we're standing on. Windham-Myers pulls out a sample of the dark peat soil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The wetland \u003ca href=\"http://ca.water.usgs.gov/Carbon_Farm/RandD.html\">produces soil at a rapid rate\u003c/a> – four inches a year on average. That's huge, says USGS scientist Brian Bergamaschi, in a place where the land is sinking. \"These islands are like bowls and the way we see projects like this is you want to fill up the middle of that bowl and help level out the whole island.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Planting wetlands like this one could raise the land level and water table on the inside of levees, relieving some of the pressure. But why would farmers want to replace cash crops with tule? Windham-Myers points to the soil.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is basically almost 100 percent carbon. These take up far more than a typical forest environment,\" she says. California is setting up a market for carbon, as part of the state's effort to cut global warming emissions. Early next year, companies that need to reduce their emissions could pay farmers to store carbon in wetlands like this.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_38451\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 320px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarming2.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/05/DeltaFarming2.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"DeltaFarming2\" width=\"320\" height=\"199\" class=\"size-full wp-image-38451\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">USGS scientist Brian Bergamaschi talks with Delta farmer Al Medvitch. (Photo: Josh Cassidy/KQED)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Today, two farmers are here checking out the project: Steve Mello, a Delta farmer on Tyler Island and Al Medvitch, a farmer in the Montezuma Hills. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The potential has been demonstrated well. You guys are standing in the middle of it. But in order to move from here to market, we need to develop a lot more techniques so people can come and verify that the carbon is stored,\" says Brian Bergamaschi, describing how wetland farming might work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both farmers seem open to the idea. But Mello says ultimately, it depends on the bottom line. \"It would absolutely need to cash flow. While it could dovetail with levee stability, it would still need to generate enough to amortize your property value.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Still, Mello says assuming carbon prices are high enough, growing patches of wetlands could be a feasible way to improve the levees and to stay farming.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/38415/californias-deadlocked-delta-is-carbon-farming-the-future","authors":["239"],"series":["quest_11058"],"categories":["quest_4","quest_8","quest_9"],"tags":["quest_85","quest_252","quest_621","quest_684","quest_797","quest_799","quest_1073","quest_11119","quest_11118","quest_13203","quest_13202","quest_2472","quest_2559","quest_3108","quest_3340"],"featImg":"quest_38425","label":"quest_11058"},"quest_29446":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_29446","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"29446","score":null,"sort":[1326497740000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"six-bay-area-cities-play-the-waiting-game","title":"Six Bay Area Cities Play the Waiting Game","publishDate":1326497740,"format":"audio","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/01/2012-01-16-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/01/LBNL.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/01/LBNL.jpg\" alt=\"LBNL\" title=\"LBNL\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-29456\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/01/LBNL.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/01/LBNL-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This month may be the moment of truth for six Bay Area communities. Each one is vying to be the new home of a high-profile national research center. But when it comes to development in the Bay Area, there are no easy answers. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Oakland, Alameda, and Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, and Richmond are the six cities in the running for what you might call the 2012 Cadillac of Bay Area Development Projects: A \u003ca href=\"http://www.lbl.gov/community/second-campus/index.html\">new, second campus for the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/staff_roster.shtml\">Will Travis\u003c/a> – who, until recently, headed the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, a state agency that regulates building around the bay – says, sure, big development projects happen all the time in the Bay Area. But Lawrence Berkeley labs is what he calls \"a platinum level, marquee\" project. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since it was founded in 1931, thirteen Nobel prizes have been won on work done here. Sixteen elements added to the periodic table. World-famous innovations in medical science, alternative energy and atomic research that helped win World War II. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It reflects who we are as a society, a knowledge-based society,\" says Travis, \"and this is the epitome of that.\" \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With a staff of \u003ca href=\"http://www.lbl.gov/LBL-PID/Lab_Facts/index.html\">4,000 and a budget of more than $800 million\u003c/a>, the Lawrence Berkeley Lab has been overflowing its headquarters in the Berkeley Hills for some time. Research on \u003ca href=\"http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/news/news_detail.cfm/news_id=17669\">biofuels\u003c/a> and other fields has spilled over to satellite offices in Emeryville and Walnut Creek. The idea is to consolidate those operations into a second campus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For several Bay Area cities, this seems like a dream opportunity. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On a blindingly sunny day in November, Alameda city development manager Jennifer Ott took me on a tour of Alameda's contender in the race: a 50-acre waterfront property in the Alameda Naval Air Station. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gesturing to what now looks like a concrete wasteland – albeit with a spectacular Bay view – Ott described a bustling campus and waterfront promenade. Retail shops and restaurants, a jogging path. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She says when the Navy decommissioned the Air Station 15 years ago, the city lost thousands of jobs. The lab would be a chance to bring this area back to life. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, \u003ca href=\"http://www.cityofalamedaca.gov/City-Hall/Lawrence-Berkeley-National-Lab-Request-for-Qualification\">Alameda is offering the site\u003c/a> to the lab for free, which says a lot, especially when you consider that – as because it’s a national lab – the campus will contribute nothing in local property taxes \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ott says It’s still worth it. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"They will shop in our stores,\" says Ott, \"eat in our restaurants. And we also believe that they will attract other private development to the area that will bring tax revenue into the city and jobs.\" \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The need for jobs unites all six of the possible sites. But here’s something else many of them have in common: They're flat and by the water. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And that presents a problem that no one has much experience dealing with says Will Travis. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The fact that these areas are low-lying and vulnerable to sea level rise isn't something that's been integrated into regulatory process yet.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco Bay waters \u003ca href=\"http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/planning/climate_change/index_map.shtml\">are expected to rise\u003c/a> steadily in coming years: 16 inches by 2050, up to 55 inches by the end of the century. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the more imminent threat, says Travis, is storms. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The scientists are telling us that we will have more extreme events more often. And we’re seeing it. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Travis believes that sea-level rise is something that can be designed around with stilts, or artificial hills, setbacks. His former agency, the BCDC is charged with writing those guidelines. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But at a certain point, says Heather Cooley, of the Oakland-based Pacific Institute, there will be places simply not worth developing. Places we will just abandon to the rising waters. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"We will need to have those sorts of conversations,\" says Cooley. But she adds that nobody in the Bay Area seems quite ready to have them yet. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other hard conversations are taking place just north, near the Albany/Berkeley border at Golden Gate Fields.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the day I visited, a thoroughbred named \"I'm Tops\" is getting a pedicure, his hooves filed down and shiny new aluminum shoes fitted with nails and a hammer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is a dying art,\" said Peter Tunney, my guide and a member of the Stronach Group, the private racing firm that owns this racetrack and others. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tunney has been in the racing business most of his adult life. But he said betting had declined in recent years. Sometime, the grandstands were only half-full. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Horse racing, said Tunney, \"has become a television sport. We have all learned that we don’t need grandstands anymore.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If Lawrence Berkeley \u003ca href=\"http://www.eastbayexpress.com/92510/archives/2011/03/08/golden-gate-fields-submits-bid-for-lawrence-berkeley-lab\">chooses this spot\u003c/a> to put its new campus, the racetrack, built in 1941, would be torn down. The lab would either buy the property, or lease it from the Stronach Group. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Racing would continue, said Tunney, just somewhere smaller inland like Pleasanton.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"We're in the racing business. We’ll stay in the racing biz. We’re just following this through as a potential option.\" \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If the lab chooses \u003ca href=\"http://albany.patch.com/articles/new-berkeley-lab-design-comes-monday-from-golden-gate-fields\">Albany\u003c/a>, there will be some hurdles. Birders say the construction could damage precious habitat near the track.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And losing the track would cost the city of Albany about a million and a half tax dollars that it takes in from the track each year, money that funds its schools, among other things. By law, residents here would have the right to vote on whether to allow the lab or not, which could add time and risk to the process\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are no easy answers, says the BCDC's Will Travis. \"And I think that’s what’s taking so long. We have a series of imperfect alternatives.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://richmondconfidential.org/2011/05/10/richmond-named-as-finalist-in-lawrence-berkeley-national-lab-campus-bid/\">One final option \u003c/a>is to build out the Richmond Field Station, off of I-580, and just north of the racetrack. The Field station, which Lawrence Berkeley Lab already owns, currently houses several scientific projects, including an earthquake simulator and UC Berkeley's Forest Products Lab. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A spokesman for the lab says a decision should be out within the month. They hope to have the new facilities up and running by 2016. \u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"This month may be the moment of truth for six Bay Area communities. Each one is vying to be the new home of a high-profile national research center. But when it comes to development in the Bay Area, there are no easy answers. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1370996815,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":37,"wordCount":1054},"headData":{"title":"Six Bay Area Cities Play the Waiting Game | KQED","description":"This month may be the moment of truth for six Bay Area communities. Each one is vying to be the new home of a high-profile national research center. But when it comes to development in the Bay Area, there are no easy answers. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"29446 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?post_type=audio_reports&p=29446","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/01/13/six-bay-area-cities-play-the-waiting-game/","disqusTitle":"Six Bay Area Cities Play the Waiting Game","path":"/quest/29446/six-bay-area-cities-play-the-waiting-game","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/01/2012-01-16-quest.mp3","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/01/2012-01-16-quest.mp3\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/01/LBNL.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/01/LBNL.jpg\" alt=\"LBNL\" title=\"LBNL\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-29456\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/01/LBNL.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/01/LBNL-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This month may be the moment of truth for six Bay Area communities. Each one is vying to be the new home of a high-profile national research center. But when it comes to development in the Bay Area, there are no easy answers. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Oakland, Alameda, and Berkeley, Emeryville, Albany, and Richmond are the six cities in the running for what you might call the 2012 Cadillac of Bay Area Development Projects: A \u003ca href=\"http://www.lbl.gov/community/second-campus/index.html\">new, second campus for the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/a>\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/staff_roster.shtml\">Will Travis\u003c/a> – who, until recently, headed the Bay Conservation and Development Commission, a state agency that regulates building around the bay – says, sure, big development projects happen all the time in the Bay Area. But Lawrence Berkeley labs is what he calls \"a platinum level, marquee\" project. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since it was founded in 1931, thirteen Nobel prizes have been won on work done here. Sixteen elements added to the periodic table. World-famous innovations in medical science, alternative energy and atomic research that helped win World War II. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"It reflects who we are as a society, a knowledge-based society,\" says Travis, \"and this is the epitome of that.\" \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With a staff of \u003ca href=\"http://www.lbl.gov/LBL-PID/Lab_Facts/index.html\">4,000 and a budget of more than $800 million\u003c/a>, the Lawrence Berkeley Lab has been overflowing its headquarters in the Berkeley Hills for some time. Research on \u003ca href=\"http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/news/news_detail.cfm/news_id=17669\">biofuels\u003c/a> and other fields has spilled over to satellite offices in Emeryville and Walnut Creek. The idea is to consolidate those operations into a second campus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For several Bay Area cities, this seems like a dream opportunity. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On a blindingly sunny day in November, Alameda city development manager Jennifer Ott took me on a tour of Alameda's contender in the race: a 50-acre waterfront property in the Alameda Naval Air Station. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gesturing to what now looks like a concrete wasteland – albeit with a spectacular Bay view – Ott described a bustling campus and waterfront promenade. Retail shops and restaurants, a jogging path. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She says when the Navy decommissioned the Air Station 15 years ago, the city lost thousands of jobs. The lab would be a chance to bring this area back to life. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, \u003ca href=\"http://www.cityofalamedaca.gov/City-Hall/Lawrence-Berkeley-National-Lab-Request-for-Qualification\">Alameda is offering the site\u003c/a> to the lab for free, which says a lot, especially when you consider that – as because it’s a national lab – the campus will contribute nothing in local property taxes \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ott says It’s still worth it. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"They will shop in our stores,\" says Ott, \"eat in our restaurants. And we also believe that they will attract other private development to the area that will bring tax revenue into the city and jobs.\" \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The need for jobs unites all six of the possible sites. But here’s something else many of them have in common: They're flat and by the water. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And that presents a problem that no one has much experience dealing with says Will Travis. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The fact that these areas are low-lying and vulnerable to sea level rise isn't something that's been integrated into regulatory process yet.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco Bay waters \u003ca href=\"http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/planning/climate_change/index_map.shtml\">are expected to rise\u003c/a> steadily in coming years: 16 inches by 2050, up to 55 inches by the end of the century. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the more imminent threat, says Travis, is storms. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The scientists are telling us that we will have more extreme events more often. And we’re seeing it. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Travis believes that sea-level rise is something that can be designed around with stilts, or artificial hills, setbacks. His former agency, the BCDC is charged with writing those guidelines. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But at a certain point, says Heather Cooley, of the Oakland-based Pacific Institute, there will be places simply not worth developing. Places we will just abandon to the rising waters. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"We will need to have those sorts of conversations,\" says Cooley. But she adds that nobody in the Bay Area seems quite ready to have them yet. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other hard conversations are taking place just north, near the Albany/Berkeley border at Golden Gate Fields.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the day I visited, a thoroughbred named \"I'm Tops\" is getting a pedicure, his hooves filed down and shiny new aluminum shoes fitted with nails and a hammer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is a dying art,\" said Peter Tunney, my guide and a member of the Stronach Group, the private racing firm that owns this racetrack and others. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tunney has been in the racing business most of his adult life. But he said betting had declined in recent years. Sometime, the grandstands were only half-full. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Horse racing, said Tunney, \"has become a television sport. We have all learned that we don’t need grandstands anymore.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If Lawrence Berkeley \u003ca href=\"http://www.eastbayexpress.com/92510/archives/2011/03/08/golden-gate-fields-submits-bid-for-lawrence-berkeley-lab\">chooses this spot\u003c/a> to put its new campus, the racetrack, built in 1941, would be torn down. The lab would either buy the property, or lease it from the Stronach Group. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Racing would continue, said Tunney, just somewhere smaller inland like Pleasanton.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"We're in the racing business. We’ll stay in the racing biz. We’re just following this through as a potential option.\" \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If the lab chooses \u003ca href=\"http://albany.patch.com/articles/new-berkeley-lab-design-comes-monday-from-golden-gate-fields\">Albany\u003c/a>, there will be some hurdles. Birders say the construction could damage precious habitat near the track.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And losing the track would cost the city of Albany about a million and a half tax dollars that it takes in from the track each year, money that funds its schools, among other things. By law, residents here would have the right to vote on whether to allow the lab or not, which could add time and risk to the process\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are no easy answers, says the BCDC's Will Travis. \"And I think that’s what’s taking so long. We have a series of imperfect alternatives.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://richmondconfidential.org/2011/05/10/richmond-named-as-finalist-in-lawrence-berkeley-national-lab-campus-bid/\">One final option \u003c/a>is to build out the Richmond Field Station, off of I-580, and just north of the racetrack. The Field station, which Lawrence Berkeley Lab already owns, currently houses several scientific projects, including an earthquake simulator and UC Berkeley's Forest Products Lab. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A spokesman for the lab says a decision should be out within the month. They hope to have the new facilities up and running by 2016. \u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/29446/six-bay-area-cities-play-the-waiting-game","authors":["210"],"categories":["quest_9"],"tags":["quest_10623","quest_10260","quest_252","quest_10626","quest_10625","quest_817","quest_10624","quest_10620","quest_13212","quest_1626","quest_13203","quest_13202","quest_10622","quest_2559","quest_10621"],"featImg":"quest_29456","label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.","airtime":"SUN 2pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.possible.fm/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Possible"},"link":"/radio/program/possible","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/possible/id1677184070","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/730YpdUSNlMyPQwNnyjp4k"}},"1a":{"id":"1a","title":"1A","info":"1A is home to the national conversation. 1A brings on great guests and frames the best debate in ways that make you think, share and engage.","airtime":"MON-THU 11pm-12am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/1a.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://the1a.org/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/1a","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=1188724250&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/1A-p947376/","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510316/podcast.xml"}},"all-things-considered":{"id":"all-things-considered","title":"All Things Considered","info":"Every weekday, \u003cem>All Things Considered\u003c/em> hosts Robert Siegel, Audie Cornish, Ari Shapiro, and Kelly McEvers present the program's trademark mix of news, interviews, commentaries, reviews, and offbeat features. Michel Martin hosts on the weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 1pm-2pm, 4:30pm-6:30pm\u003cbr />SAT-SUN 5pm-6pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/All-Things-Considered-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.npr.org/programs/all-things-considered/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/all-things-considered"},"american-suburb-podcast":{"id":"american-suburb-podcast","title":"American Suburb: The Podcast","tagline":"The flip side of gentrification, told through one town","info":"Gentrification is changing cities across America, forcing people from neighborhoods they have long called home. Call them the displaced. Now those priced out of the Bay Area are looking for a better life in an unlikely place. American Suburb follows this migration to one California town along the Delta, 45 miles from San Francisco. But is this once sleepy suburb ready for them?","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/American-Suburb-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"13"},"link":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?mt=2&id=1287748328","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/American-Suburb-p1086805/","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkMzMDExODgxNjA5"}},"baycurious":{"id":"baycurious","title":"Bay Curious","tagline":"Exploring the Bay Area, one question at a time","info":"KQED’s new podcast, Bay Curious, gets to the bottom of the mysteries — both profound and peculiar — that give the Bay Area its unique identity. And we’ll do it with your help! You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. 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You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Mindshift-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED MindShift: How We Will Learn","officialWebsiteLink":"/mindshift/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"2"},"link":"/podcasts/mindshift","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mindshift-podcast/id1078765985","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/464615685/mind-shift-podcast","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/stories-teachers-share","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/0MxSpNYZKNprFLCl7eEtyx"}},"morning-edition":{"id":"morning-edition","title":"Morning Edition","info":"\u003cem>Morning Edition\u003c/em> takes listeners around the country and the world with multi-faceted stories and commentaries every weekday. 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On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. 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