Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay
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He is fascinated by the dynamic processes that shape our planet and the science of reconstructing ancient landscapes preserved in the geologic record. Brian came to the Bay Area in 2003 and completed a Ph.D. in geology at Stanford University in 2008. He lives in Berkeley with his wife, a high school science teacher, and is currently working as a research scientist in the energy industry. Follow him on \u003ca href=\"http://www.twitter.com/clasticdetritus\">Twitter\u003c/a>.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/17c56b6efae79164ca77ee5cb5021bb1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Brian Romans | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/17c56b6efae79164ca77ee5cb5021bb1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/17c56b6efae79164ca77ee5cb5021bb1?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/brian-romans"},"lindsay-kelliher":{"type":"authors","id":"10206","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"10206","found":true},"name":"Lindsay Kelliher","firstName":"Lindsay","lastName":"Kelliher","slug":"lindsay-kelliher","email":"lkelliher@kqed.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Lindsay has been in media in California for more than a decade, dividing her time between San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay. She has worked on documentary and factual programs for PBS (NOVA and NATURE), National Geographic, Discovery, and Animal Planet. She has also been involved with working and volunteering for local Animal Rescue organizations. She loves her new home with QUEST, letting her combine her love of animals and nature with her science-nerd tendencies. Lindsay graduated with honors from Northwestern’s Radio, TV, and Film department.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/58f84d90c37fac0580527a0cb97d2cc3?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Lindsay Kelliher | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/58f84d90c37fac0580527a0cb97d2cc3?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/58f84d90c37fac0580527a0cb97d2cc3?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/lindsay-kelliher"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"home","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"quest_8920":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_8920","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"8920","score":null,"sort":[1285860609000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"landfill-and-liquefaction","title":"Landfill and Liquefaction","publishDate":1285860609,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/SF-from-TP.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8237\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/09/SF-from-TP.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"208\">\u003c/a>\u003cem> \u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although it may not be obvious at first glance, the bay side of San Francisco is largely artificial. The huge increase in population associated with the California Gold Rush of the mid 1800s resulted in San Francisco becoming \u003cem>the\u003c/em> major port on the west coast. In some cases, people seeking riches in the Sierra Nevada headed off to the mountains and simply abandoned their ships in San Francisco. Some of these ships ended up being used as landfill and, year after year, the shoreline along the northern and eastern sides of the city was modified. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The area where Market Street meets the Embarcadero was among the earliest areas to be extended into the bay, but landfill -- a combination of sediment dredged from the bay with rubble -- continued to be used to create new \"land\" for decades to come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The map below* shows this modification quite nicely. Original creeks and streams are in blue, marshes in aqua-green, and modern landfill in pink.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://museumca.org/creeks/SFTopoCreeks.html\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8921\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/09/TopoSFCreeks-cropped1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"599\" height=\"457\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What I like about this map is how the pink landfill areas highlight the old shoreline. Note where the original creeks and marshlands met the bay. What is now a relatively straight shoreline was once very irregular with several natural embayments. Mission Bay was once an actual bay. I find it fascinating to picture the city in this way -- the way it was a little over a century ago.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The areas that are now landfill are important to consider not just as interesting history, but also in the context of earthquake hazards. Last week I discussed \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/09/23/earthquake-preparedness-in-the-bay-area-2/\">Bay Area seismic hazard preparedness\u003c/a> and an important component of getting ready is to learn about how different types of land respond to the shaking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/liquefaction/susceptibility.html\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8937\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/09/usgs-liquefaction-susceptibility.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"381\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The map above** was produced by the USGS and shows the \u003ca href=\"http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/liquefaction/susceptibility.html\">liquefaction hazard\u003c/a> -- red is very high hazard, orange is high, yellow moderate, green low, and no color is very low. \u003ca href=\"http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/liquefaction/aboutliq.html\">Liquefaction\u003c/a> is essentially when loose sediment behaves like a fluid when shaken, which can result is serious damage to buildings and houses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Note the correspondence between the red areas on the liquefaction hazard map with the map showing where landfill and old marshes are. While it may seem like solid ground when you are walking or driving on the street it's important to remember that the fill underneath is quite loose compared to actual bedrock.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"color: #ffffff\">~\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>* This great map, and many more, can be found at the website for the Oakland Museum of California: \u003ca href=\"http://museumca.org\">http://museumca.org\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>** See the entire zoomable map, learn more about liquefaction hazard, and how the USGS made this map \u003ca href=\"http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/liquefaction/susceptibility.html\">here\u003c/a>.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.760564217910726 -122.40723038557917\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Although it may not be obvious at first glance, the bay side of San Francisco is largely artificial.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1285860609,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":17,"wordCount":435},"headData":{"title":"Landfill and Liquefaction | KQED","description":"Although it may not be obvious at first glance, the bay side of San Francisco is largely artificial.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"8920 http://www.kqed.org/quest/blog/?p=8920","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/09/30/landfill-and-liquefaction/","disqusTitle":"Landfill and Liquefaction","path":"/quest/8920/landfill-and-liquefaction","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/SF-from-TP.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8237\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/09/SF-from-TP.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"208\">\u003c/a>\u003cem> \u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although it may not be obvious at first glance, the bay side of San Francisco is largely artificial. The huge increase in population associated with the California Gold Rush of the mid 1800s resulted in San Francisco becoming \u003cem>the\u003c/em> major port on the west coast. In some cases, people seeking riches in the Sierra Nevada headed off to the mountains and simply abandoned their ships in San Francisco. Some of these ships ended up being used as landfill and, year after year, the shoreline along the northern and eastern sides of the city was modified. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The area where Market Street meets the Embarcadero was among the earliest areas to be extended into the bay, but landfill -- a combination of sediment dredged from the bay with rubble -- continued to be used to create new \"land\" for decades to come.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The map below* shows this modification quite nicely. Original creeks and streams are in blue, marshes in aqua-green, and modern landfill in pink.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://museumca.org/creeks/SFTopoCreeks.html\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8921\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/09/TopoSFCreeks-cropped1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"599\" height=\"457\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What I like about this map is how the pink landfill areas highlight the old shoreline. Note where the original creeks and marshlands met the bay. What is now a relatively straight shoreline was once very irregular with several natural embayments. Mission Bay was once an actual bay. I find it fascinating to picture the city in this way -- the way it was a little over a century ago.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The areas that are now landfill are important to consider not just as interesting history, but also in the context of earthquake hazards. Last week I discussed \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/09/23/earthquake-preparedness-in-the-bay-area-2/\">Bay Area seismic hazard preparedness\u003c/a> and an important component of getting ready is to learn about how different types of land respond to the shaking.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/liquefaction/susceptibility.html\">\u003cimg class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-8937\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2010/09/usgs-liquefaction-susceptibility.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"381\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The map above** was produced by the USGS and shows the \u003ca href=\"http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/liquefaction/susceptibility.html\">liquefaction hazard\u003c/a> -- red is very high hazard, orange is high, yellow moderate, green low, and no color is very low. \u003ca href=\"http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/liquefaction/aboutliq.html\">Liquefaction\u003c/a> is essentially when loose sediment behaves like a fluid when shaken, which can result is serious damage to buildings and houses.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Note the correspondence between the red areas on the liquefaction hazard map with the map showing where landfill and old marshes are. While it may seem like solid ground when you are walking or driving on the street it's important to remember that the fill underneath is quite loose compared to actual bedrock.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"color: #ffffff\">~\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>* This great map, and many more, can be found at the website for the Oakland Museum of California: \u003ca href=\"http://museumca.org\">http://museumca.org\u003c/a>\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>** See the entire zoomable map, learn more about liquefaction hazard, and how the USGS made this map \u003ca href=\"http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/liquefaction/susceptibility.html\">here\u003c/a>.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.760564217910726 -122.40723038557917\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/8920/landfill-and-liquefaction","authors":["10171"],"tags":["quest_907","quest_13200","quest_1374","quest_1605","quest_2486","quest_2491"],"label":"quest"},"quest_7522":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_7522","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"7522","score":null,"sort":[1282674734000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"producers-notes-sea-level-rise","title":"Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay","publishDate":1282674734,"format":"video","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The sea is rising. This, in itself, is not news. The oceans of Earth have been slowly, steadily rising for hundreds of years. But it’s about to get a lot higher a lot faster, and millions of people - and billions of dollars of infrastructure - are suddenly finding themselves at risk for flooding, storm surge damage, and possible relocation. How could something that has been a known factor surprise us, unprepared?\u003cbr>\n\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meet Sea Level Rise, the new poster child for climate change. There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As we were just starting research for this story, I attended the \u003ca href=\"http://www.bayplanningcoalition.org/2010/dmc-2010-resource-guide/\">SF Bay Decision Maker’s Conference on Sea Level Change\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\nThere was one idea that permeated the entire day’s discussions:\n\u003cli>You can’t engineer for an unknown amount.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Developers are aware of sea level rise, but do not know how to approach the issue. “Tell how much it will rise, and by when, and we can plan for it.”\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Of course, it’s just not that straightforward. The science behind the estimates seems to be uncertain, providing ranges from as little as 12 inches by 2050, to as much as 80 inches by 2100. There is a consensus that the rate of sea level rise has increased in conjunction with the rise of global surface temperatures. The point of uncertainty is what the rate of sea level rise will be in the future. In 2007, German scientist Stefan Rahmstorf developed an empirical method for predicting future sea level rise using the relationship between sea level rise and global mean surface temperature. His estimates of global sea level rise by 2100 range from 10 inches (50 cm) to 55 inches (140 cm) respectively. Research estimates done for the Governor of California state that sea level will increase between 12 and 17 inches (30 and 45 cm) by 2050 and between 20 and 55 inches (50 and 140 cm) by 2099.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most estimates show a wide range, depending on how much glaciers and ice caps melt over the next 90 years. The truth is that scientists don’t know how much other environmental factors will contribute to, or slow down, the rate of sea level rise. In addition, these are global estimates, which are averages and will not represent the exact numbers for specific locations. How much the sea level rises here in San Francisco Bay will not look the same as it will in Bangladesh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The one thing scientists do agree on, however, is that sea level rise up to 2 meters (78 inches) is not out of the question, but certainly a high estimate. \"Although increases of up to two metres this century can't be ruled out, this does not mean that they are inevitable or even likely.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And so we return to the question, “What should we do about it?” The truth is, we just aren’t sure yet. What we \u003cem>do\u003c/em> know are the factors that contribute to the acceleration of sea level rise. Most scientists will tell you that, before we can fix the problem, we first need to stop the cause. Otherwise, we’ll never get ahead our heads (and our buildings!) above the water line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peter Gleick, President of the \u003ca href=\"http://pacinst.org/\">Pacific Institute\u003c/a> in Oakland, tells us “the good news is that there’s a lot that we could if we’re smart enough to do it in advance. There are a lot of things that we could do to reduce the risks of climate change and sea level rise around the Bay. The first thing we need to do is reduce the severity of climate change. And that’s an issue of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that’s got to be done at the national level. We’re doing a little bit of it at the California level. It needs to be done at the global level. But whether or not the politicians get their act together and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re still going to have to deal with some sea level rise. That’s built into the gases we’ve already put into the atmosphere…But where we get to at the end of the century is going to depend on actions that California or the United States or ultimately the whole globe takes to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, to reduce the rate of climate change. If we don’t get our act together, if we don’t do things to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re gonna reach a meter of sea level rise or more by the end of the century. And it’s gonna be growing even faster than it is now. But if for some reason we’re able to get a handle on emissions and the world is able to come together, we could slow that rate enormously, and limit the rate of sea level rise to hopefully only a few tens of centimeters. I don't think we’ll be that lucky, but that’s a possibility.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, \"Will it rise?\" but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?\"","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1457640837,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":972},"headData":{"title":"Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay | KQED","description":"There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, "Will it rise?" but, "How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?"","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"7522 http://www.kqed.org/quest/blog/2010/08/24/producers-notes-sea-level-rise/","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/08/24/producers-notes-sea-level-rise/","disqusTitle":"Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay","videoEmbed":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDv021_zW-E","path":"/quest/7522/producers-notes-sea-level-rise","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The sea is rising. This, in itself, is not news. The oceans of Earth have been slowly, steadily rising for hundreds of years. But it’s about to get a lot higher a lot faster, and millions of people - and billions of dollars of infrastructure - are suddenly finding themselves at risk for flooding, storm surge damage, and possible relocation. How could something that has been a known factor surprise us, unprepared?\u003cbr>\n\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meet Sea Level Rise, the new poster child for climate change. There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As we were just starting research for this story, I attended the \u003ca href=\"http://www.bayplanningcoalition.org/2010/dmc-2010-resource-guide/\">SF Bay Decision Maker’s Conference on Sea Level Change\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\nThere was one idea that permeated the entire day’s discussions:\n\u003cli>You can’t engineer for an unknown amount.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Developers are aware of sea level rise, but do not know how to approach the issue. “Tell how much it will rise, and by when, and we can plan for it.”\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Of course, it’s just not that straightforward. The science behind the estimates seems to be uncertain, providing ranges from as little as 12 inches by 2050, to as much as 80 inches by 2100. There is a consensus that the rate of sea level rise has increased in conjunction with the rise of global surface temperatures. The point of uncertainty is what the rate of sea level rise will be in the future. In 2007, German scientist Stefan Rahmstorf developed an empirical method for predicting future sea level rise using the relationship between sea level rise and global mean surface temperature. His estimates of global sea level rise by 2100 range from 10 inches (50 cm) to 55 inches (140 cm) respectively. Research estimates done for the Governor of California state that sea level will increase between 12 and 17 inches (30 and 45 cm) by 2050 and between 20 and 55 inches (50 and 140 cm) by 2099.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most estimates show a wide range, depending on how much glaciers and ice caps melt over the next 90 years. The truth is that scientists don’t know how much other environmental factors will contribute to, or slow down, the rate of sea level rise. In addition, these are global estimates, which are averages and will not represent the exact numbers for specific locations. How much the sea level rises here in San Francisco Bay will not look the same as it will in Bangladesh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The one thing scientists do agree on, however, is that sea level rise up to 2 meters (78 inches) is not out of the question, but certainly a high estimate. \"Although increases of up to two metres this century can't be ruled out, this does not mean that they are inevitable or even likely.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And so we return to the question, “What should we do about it?” The truth is, we just aren’t sure yet. What we \u003cem>do\u003c/em> know are the factors that contribute to the acceleration of sea level rise. Most scientists will tell you that, before we can fix the problem, we first need to stop the cause. Otherwise, we’ll never get ahead our heads (and our buildings!) above the water line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peter Gleick, President of the \u003ca href=\"http://pacinst.org/\">Pacific Institute\u003c/a> in Oakland, tells us “the good news is that there’s a lot that we could if we’re smart enough to do it in advance. There are a lot of things that we could do to reduce the risks of climate change and sea level rise around the Bay. The first thing we need to do is reduce the severity of climate change. And that’s an issue of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that’s got to be done at the national level. We’re doing a little bit of it at the California level. It needs to be done at the global level. But whether or not the politicians get their act together and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re still going to have to deal with some sea level rise. That’s built into the gases we’ve already put into the atmosphere…But where we get to at the end of the century is going to depend on actions that California or the United States or ultimately the whole globe takes to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, to reduce the rate of climate change. If we don’t get our act together, if we don’t do things to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re gonna reach a meter of sea level rise or more by the end of the century. And it’s gonna be growing even faster than it is now. But if for some reason we’re able to get a handle on emissions and the world is able to come together, we could slow that rate enormously, and limit the rate of sea level rise to hopefully only a few tens of centimeters. I don't think we’ll be that lucky, but that’s a possibility.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/7522/producers-notes-sea-level-rise","authors":["10206"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_9","quest_3422","quest_3233"],"tags":["quest_131","quest_621","quest_797","quest_924","quest_1115","quest_1319","quest_1891","quest_2041","quest_2043","quest_2491","quest_2559","quest_2603","quest_2805","quest_2893","quest_2925","quest_2940","quest_2989"],"label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. 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Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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