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Photo courtesy {link url=http://www.flickr.com/photos/anitakhart/}Anita Hart{/link} of Flickr under Creative Commons license","credit":null,"description":null,"imgSizes":{"thumbnail":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/03/pacifica-tsusign-400x225.jpg","width":400,"height":225,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-32":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/03/pacifica-tsusign-32x32.jpg","width":32,"height":32,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-64":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/03/pacifica-tsusign-64x64.jpg","width":64,"height":64,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-96":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/03/pacifica-tsusign-96x96.jpg","width":96,"height":96,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-128":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/03/pacifica-tsusign-128x128.jpg","width":128,"height":128,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"detail":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/03/pacifica-tsusign-75x75.jpg","width":75,"height":75,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"kqedFullSize":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/03/pacifica-tsusign.jpg","width":640,"height":360}},"fetchFailed":false,"isLoading":false}},"audioPlayerReducer":{"postId":"stream_live"},"authorsReducer":{"amystanden":{"type":"authors","id":"210","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"210","found":true},"name":"Amy Standen","firstName":"Amy","lastName":"Standen","slug":"amystanden","email":"astanden@kqed.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Amy Standen (@amystanden) is co-host of #\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/programs/the-leap\">TheLeapPodcast\u003c/a> (subscribe on iTunes or Stitcher!) and host of KQED and PBSDigital Studios' science video series, \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/user/KQEDDeepLook\">Deep Look\u003c/a>. Her science radio stories appear on KQED and NPR.\r\n\r\nEmail her at astanden@kqed.org","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"news","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"futureofyou","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"stateofhealth","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Amy Standen | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/amystanden"},"andrew-alden":{"type":"authors","id":"6228","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"6228","found":true},"name":"Andrew Alden","firstName":"Andrew","lastName":"Alden","slug":"andrew-alden","email":"alden@andrew-alden.com","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Andrew Alden earned his geology degree at the University of New Hampshire and moved back to the Bay Area to work at the U.S. Geological Survey for six years. He has \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/\">written on geology for About.com\u003c/a> since its founding in 1997. In 2007, he started the Oakland Geology blog, which won recognition as \"Best of the East Bay\" from the \u003ci>East Bay Express\u003c/i> in 2010. In writing about geology in the Bay Area and surroundings, he hopes to share some of the useful and pleasurable insights that geologists give us—not just facts about the deep past, but an attitude that might be called the \u003ci>deep present\u003c/i>.\r\n\r\nRead his \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/author/andrew-alden/\">previous contributions\u003c/a> to \u003ca href=\"http://http://science.kqed.org/quest/\">QUEST\u003c/a>, a project dedicated to exploring the Science of Sustainability.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"science","roles":["author"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Andrew Alden | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/andrew-alden"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"home","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"quest_31902":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_31902","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"31902","score":null,"sort":[1330633077000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"the-half-life-of-disaster-awareness","title":"The Half-Life of Disaster Awareness","publishDate":1330633077,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/03/01/the-half-life-of-disaster-awareness/pacifica-tsusign/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-31903\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/03/pacifica-tsusign-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"pacifica-tsusign\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-31903\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After the Sumatra earthquake and tsunami of 2004, the U.S. government quickly expanded funding for the right things. These included the network of \u003ca href=\"http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/Dart/\">DART\u003c/a> (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) seafloor sensors, coastal signage, inundation maps, and procedures to be presented at coastal towns. By 2011, the tsunami program had done a lot of good, and when the giant Tohoku earthquake sent tsunamis across the Pacific, the DART network did its job, emergency workers did theirs, and citizens had a clear idea of what would happen when waves reached America.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What now? Most people would probably agree that a useful, well-operating program should be maintained. When the White House proposed to reduce its funding next year, voices of dismay were easy to find. Environmentalist Jeff Ruch said, \"This is like a homeowner trying to economize by disconnecting the smoke detector.\" The \u003ci>Mercury News\u003c/i> editors thundered, \"Nobody wants to find out what an unannounced tsunami might do to America's shores.\" I think those responses are over the top. More realistic was a quote from an emergency management pro: \"Preparedness and public education is perishable. People need to be reminded. It's just like earthquakes.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The people running the program didn't seem as upset, and \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_20057646\">the reported details of the plan\u003c/a> appeared to be consistent with an agency tapering off from buildup to maintenance. Still, beneath the concern was a bit of knowledge that's deeply ingrained among earthquake scientists, especially those in California: awareness is short-lived, peaking with significant events and then declining until the next catastrophe. History tells them so.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early Californians were shaken by earthquakes often. Just since statehood, the Bay Area had damaging quakes (magnitude 6 and greater) in 1861, 1864, 1865, 1866, 1868, 1870, 1881, 1884, 1889, 1890, 1892, 1897, 1898, and then 1906. (See them in \u003ca href=\"http://projects.californiawatch.org/earthquakes/california-earthquake-history/\">this timeline from California Watch\u003c/a>.) Historian Stephen Tobriner has shown that 19th-century San Francisco architects designed their structures in full awareness of earthquakes, although building codes did not reflect the need. The 1906 earthquake was followed by strenuous denial of the hazard on the part of officials and business interests. Building codes did not begin to change until after the Santa Barbara quake of 1925, and the Long Beach quake of 1933 led to the Field Act mandating earthquake-resistant school buildings. Since then, scientists and the state have generally had a good relationship in terms of codes and regulations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Public awareness and mass preparation have been more episodic. In this part of California, large earthquakes virtually disappeared after 1906 until the late 1970s. In the meantime, populations multiplied and memories faded. Since then the tectonic system has been expressing the growing strain that will inevitably spawn the next Big One. It's no wonder that earthquake scientists are staying vigilant. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There is a half-life in public awareness, analogous to the half-life of a radioactive isotope, such that measures of concern peak after an event, soon drop, and then taper off more gradually to a background level. (The web-link service bit.ly has documented \u003ca href=\"http://blog.bitly.com/post/9887686919/you-just-shared-a-link-how-long-will-people-pay\">its own version of this half-life\u003c/a>, and marketing researchers incorporate half-life in \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advertising_adstock\">models of advertising\u003c/a>.) Old-timers in seismology can recount waves of government support for their science that crested in the 1960s (in the Cold War context), the 1970s (after the 1971 Whittier quake) and again after our own wake-up event, 1989's Loma Prieta quake. Volcanologists can tell similar stories about \u003ca href=\"http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=bobby-jindal-and-volcano-monitoring-2009-02-25\">volcano monitoring\u003c/a>. The weather service has its ups and downs of government favor, too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Will tsunami researchers have to go through cycles like this before they reach steady levels of support? Undoubtedly. A key task is to raise that background level of awareness. The road signs and inundation models and DART networks have a built-in robustness that assures them a lasting effect beyond the annual budget cycle. It's up to the rest of us to keep paying attention.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Moves to trim the federal budget for its tsunami program arouse concern for deep as well as shallow reasons.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1331149423,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":10,"wordCount":662},"headData":{"title":"The Half-Life of Disaster Awareness | KQED","description":"Moves to trim the federal budget for its tsunami program arouse concern for deep as well as shallow reasons.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"The Half-Life of Disaster Awareness","datePublished":"2012-03-01T20:17:57.000Z","dateModified":"2012-03-07T19:43:43.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"31902 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=31902","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/03/01/the-half-life-of-disaster-awareness/","disqusTitle":"The Half-Life of Disaster Awareness","path":"/quest/31902/the-half-life-of-disaster-awareness","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/03/01/the-half-life-of-disaster-awareness/pacifica-tsusign/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-31903\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/03/pacifica-tsusign-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"pacifica-tsusign\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-31903\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After the Sumatra earthquake and tsunami of 2004, the U.S. government quickly expanded funding for the right things. These included the network of \u003ca href=\"http://nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/Dart/\">DART\u003c/a> (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) seafloor sensors, coastal signage, inundation maps, and procedures to be presented at coastal towns. By 2011, the tsunami program had done a lot of good, and when the giant Tohoku earthquake sent tsunamis across the Pacific, the DART network did its job, emergency workers did theirs, and citizens had a clear idea of what would happen when waves reached America.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What now? Most people would probably agree that a useful, well-operating program should be maintained. When the White House proposed to reduce its funding next year, voices of dismay were easy to find. Environmentalist Jeff Ruch said, \"This is like a homeowner trying to economize by disconnecting the smoke detector.\" The \u003ci>Mercury News\u003c/i> editors thundered, \"Nobody wants to find out what an unannounced tsunami might do to America's shores.\" I think those responses are over the top. More realistic was a quote from an emergency management pro: \"Preparedness and public education is perishable. People need to be reminded. It's just like earthquakes.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The people running the program didn't seem as upset, and \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_20057646\">the reported details of the plan\u003c/a> appeared to be consistent with an agency tapering off from buildup to maintenance. Still, beneath the concern was a bit of knowledge that's deeply ingrained among earthquake scientists, especially those in California: awareness is short-lived, peaking with significant events and then declining until the next catastrophe. History tells them so.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early Californians were shaken by earthquakes often. Just since statehood, the Bay Area had damaging quakes (magnitude 6 and greater) in 1861, 1864, 1865, 1866, 1868, 1870, 1881, 1884, 1889, 1890, 1892, 1897, 1898, and then 1906. (See them in \u003ca href=\"http://projects.californiawatch.org/earthquakes/california-earthquake-history/\">this timeline from California Watch\u003c/a>.) Historian Stephen Tobriner has shown that 19th-century San Francisco architects designed their structures in full awareness of earthquakes, although building codes did not reflect the need. The 1906 earthquake was followed by strenuous denial of the hazard on the part of officials and business interests. Building codes did not begin to change until after the Santa Barbara quake of 1925, and the Long Beach quake of 1933 led to the Field Act mandating earthquake-resistant school buildings. Since then, scientists and the state have generally had a good relationship in terms of codes and regulations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Public awareness and mass preparation have been more episodic. In this part of California, large earthquakes virtually disappeared after 1906 until the late 1970s. In the meantime, populations multiplied and memories faded. Since then the tectonic system has been expressing the growing strain that will inevitably spawn the next Big One. It's no wonder that earthquake scientists are staying vigilant. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There is a half-life in public awareness, analogous to the half-life of a radioactive isotope, such that measures of concern peak after an event, soon drop, and then taper off more gradually to a background level. (The web-link service bit.ly has documented \u003ca href=\"http://blog.bitly.com/post/9887686919/you-just-shared-a-link-how-long-will-people-pay\">its own version of this half-life\u003c/a>, and marketing researchers incorporate half-life in \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advertising_adstock\">models of advertising\u003c/a>.) Old-timers in seismology can recount waves of government support for their science that crested in the 1960s (in the Cold War context), the 1970s (after the 1971 Whittier quake) and again after our own wake-up event, 1989's Loma Prieta quake. Volcanologists can tell similar stories about \u003ca href=\"http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=bobby-jindal-and-volcano-monitoring-2009-02-25\">volcano monitoring\u003c/a>. The weather service has its ups and downs of government favor, too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Will tsunami researchers have to go through cycles like this before they reach steady levels of support? Undoubtedly. A key task is to raise that background level of awareness. The road signs and inundation models and DART networks have a built-in robustness that assures them a lasting effect beyond the annual budget cycle. It's up to the rest of us to keep paying attention.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/31902/the-half-life-of-disaster-awareness","authors":["6228"],"categories":["quest_11"],"tags":["quest_10748","quest_909","quest_1684","quest_10188","quest_13202","quest_3003"],"featImg":"quest_31903","label":"quest"},"quest_3830":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_3830","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"3830","score":null,"sort":[1255122022000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one","title":"Reporter's Notes: Predicting the Next Big One","publishDate":1255122022,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2009/10/radio4-1_earthquake300.jpeg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though I don't use it in the piece, the system of earthquake early warning we profiled – developed by UC Berkeley's Richard Allen, among others – has a name: \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/\">ElarmS\u003c/a>. One of my favorite parts of the ElarmS website is the \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/forms/applicationform.php\">page\u003c/a> where visitors are invited to submit their own ideas for how the system might be used.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I mention this because it illustrates an interesting fact about earthquake prediction, which is that it's not the technology \u003ca href=\"http://www.thetech.org/exhibits_events/online/quakes/waves/p&s_waves.html\">technology\u003c/a> (i.e., \u003ci>how\u003c/i> to predict an earthquake) that's still up for debate, it's what to do with the warning, once we have it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If Allen is right, three years from now ElarmS will be up and running, supplying some – if not a whole lot – of warning before quakes hit. But whether the rest of us receive that warning is largely out of ElarmS's hands. Will someone develop an iPhone app that'll announce the countdown in a GPS-like voice: 10, 9, 8? Will BART rig its system to ElarmS so that every train in the network starts slowing down, as soon as countdown begins? Will fire stations allow their doors to be automatically opened every time an alarm goes off? To borrow the USGS's David Oppenheimer's cringe-inducing example, will surgeons hear an alarm and lift their scalpels?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And what happens when false alarms – and they are inevitable - cause people to turn off their iPhone quake-warning apps, or complain about BART slowdowns? At a conference for environmental journalists last night, I chatted with two Mexicans about how their country has invested in an early-warning system. They rolled their eyes. \"If it only worked!\" Unfortunately, the price for working sometimes might be not working other times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/aboutus/docs/020204mag_policy.php\">Here is a nice depiction of P-waves and S-waves\u003c/a>, if you want to learn more about how prediction (and earthquakes) work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And here's a \u003ca href=\"http://www.cisn.org/\">link\u003c/a> to the California Integrated Seismic Network, which includes the vault I visited in the radio piece (and featured in the slde show below). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cbr clear=\"all\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2009/10/09/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one/\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/images/radio_icon_light.gif\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">Listen to Predicting the Next Big One\u003c/a> radio report online.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"It's been twenty years since the Loma Prieta Earthquake ravaged downtown Santa Cruz and damaged San Francisco's Marina District and the Bay Bridge. Quest looks at the dramatic improvements in earthquake prediction technology since 1989. But what can be done with ten seconds of warning?","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1680588695,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":360},"headData":{"title":"Reporter's Notes: Predicting the Next Big One | KQED","description":"It's been twenty years since the Loma Prieta Earthquake ravaged downtown Santa Cruz and damaged San Francisco's Marina District and the Bay Bridge. Quest looks at the dramatic improvements in earthquake prediction technology since 1989. But what can be done with ten seconds of warning?","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Reporter's Notes: Predicting the Next Big One","datePublished":"2009-10-09T21:00:22.000Z","dateModified":"2023-04-04T06:11:35.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"templateType":"standard","featuredImageType":"standard","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/quest/3830/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2009/10/radio4-1_earthquake300.jpeg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though I don't use it in the piece, the system of earthquake early warning we profiled – developed by UC Berkeley's Richard Allen, among others – has a name: \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/\">ElarmS\u003c/a>. One of my favorite parts of the ElarmS website is the \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/forms/applicationform.php\">page\u003c/a> where visitors are invited to submit their own ideas for how the system might be used.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I mention this because it illustrates an interesting fact about earthquake prediction, which is that it's not the technology \u003ca href=\"http://www.thetech.org/exhibits_events/online/quakes/waves/p&s_waves.html\">technology\u003c/a> (i.e., \u003ci>how\u003c/i> to predict an earthquake) that's still up for debate, it's what to do with the warning, once we have it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If Allen is right, three years from now ElarmS will be up and running, supplying some – if not a whole lot – of warning before quakes hit. But whether the rest of us receive that warning is largely out of ElarmS's hands. Will someone develop an iPhone app that'll announce the countdown in a GPS-like voice: 10, 9, 8? Will BART rig its system to ElarmS so that every train in the network starts slowing down, as soon as countdown begins? Will fire stations allow their doors to be automatically opened every time an alarm goes off? To borrow the USGS's David Oppenheimer's cringe-inducing example, will surgeons hear an alarm and lift their scalpels?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And what happens when false alarms – and they are inevitable - cause people to turn off their iPhone quake-warning apps, or complain about BART slowdowns? At a conference for environmental journalists last night, I chatted with two Mexicans about how their country has invested in an early-warning system. They rolled their eyes. \"If it only worked!\" Unfortunately, the price for working sometimes might be not working other times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/aboutus/docs/020204mag_policy.php\">Here is a nice depiction of P-waves and S-waves\u003c/a>, if you want to learn more about how prediction (and earthquakes) work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And here's a \u003ca href=\"http://www.cisn.org/\">link\u003c/a> to the California Integrated Seismic Network, which includes the vault I visited in the radio piece (and featured in the slde show below). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cbr clear=\"all\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2009/10/09/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one/\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/images/radio_icon_light.gif\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">Listen to Predicting the Next Big One\u003c/a> radio report online.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/3830/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one","authors":["210"],"categories":["quest_1"],"tags":["quest_450","quest_608","quest_776","quest_908","quest_946","quest_1684","quest_2429","quest_3021","quest_3048"],"label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. 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And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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