Scientists More Outspoken on Exteme Weather-Climate Links
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(Photo: Craig Miller)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Recent extreme weather events, from the Midwestern drought to Hurricane Sandy, have \u003ca title=\"Guardian - story\" href=\"http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/dec/14/extreme-weather-climate-change-scientists\">people paying attention to climate change\u003c/a>. Post-Sandy polls have shown a spike in concern about the climate among Americans. Some \u003ca title=\"NPR - story\" href=\"http://www.npr.org/2012/12/13/167075395/new-york-planners-prep-for-a-new-normal-of-powerful-storms\">scientists have been emboldened\u003c/a> to connect these events directly to human-caused global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of them, \u003ca title=\"NASA - Hansen\" href=\"http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/jhansen.html\">NASA's James Hansen\u003c/a>, who heads NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and is a climate science pioneer. He was in San Francisco this month to receive the \u003ca title=\"NewsFix - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/12/05/nasas-hansen-californias-cap-trade-doomed-to-fail/\">Stephen Schneider award\u003c/a> for climate communications. As it happened, he had just written an \u003ca title=\"Guardian - op ed\" href=\"http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/29/climate-change-carbon-price?INTCMP=SRCH\">opinion column\u003c/a> for The Guardian newspaper, which drew some pretty straight lines from global warming to Sandy:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>\"The chances of getting a late October hurricane in New York without the help of global warming are extremely small. In that sense, you can blame Sandy on global warming.\"\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Previously few scientists were willing to link any specific weather events to climate change. In a recent studio interview for KQED Science, I asked Hansen if that's changing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Hansen:\u003c/strong> Well, yes, it's changing in the sense that the climate dice are now noticeably loaded. But in the case of Sandy, the waters in the Atlantic Ocean were a few degrees warmer than normal, so it kept that storm amped up. And, of course, the warmer atmosphere also holds more water vapor, so you get more rainfall and therefore you've got heavier floods. But, in addition, sea level has gone up a measurable amount over the last several decades, and that contributes too. The climate dice are now loaded, and they're becoming more loaded. And it's reaching a level that the public should notice -- that the frequency of extreme events is greater than it used to be.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CM:\u003c/strong> The public, I think is noticing. We've certainly noticed here in California. Just recently, we had one of these multi-day, multi-wave storms referred to as a \"Pineapple Express.\" Are there climate change fingerprints on that type of event, too?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JH:\u003c/strong> Well, there is a fingerprint on extreme rainfall. So if you look at the record rainfalls -- the extreme events -- those are affected by global warming, because the atmosphere holds more water when it's warmer. And the relationship is quite a strong one. So storms -- thunderstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes -- those storms that are driven by a latent heat of water vapor are going to be stronger. The extreme ones are going to be stronger and that's simple physics. But, you can't blame any single event [on warming], so the analogy that was recently drawn of a baseball player on steroids -- that's a good example. He'll hit more home runs, but you can't say that particular home run was because he was on steroids. But you can clearly see there's an impact.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hansen has also not minced words about California's newly-established \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - cap & trade\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/series/capandtrade/\">cap-and-trade program\u003c/a>. At the Commonwealth Club, he drew surprised laughs from the audience when he paused briefly, apparently searching for words, and then blurted out, \"Because it's not -- it's half-assed.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Back in our studios, he explained why he thinks so.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_48160\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 275px\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-48160\" title=\"JHansen_NASA\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/12/JHansen_NASA.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"275\" height=\"183\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">NASA's Jim Hansen: Cap-and-trade won't get the job done. (Photo: NASA)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JH:\u003c/strong> California is very useful in providing an example of how you can have a good economy, compared to the rest of the country, and still have low emissions and hopefully go still lower. But, frankly, Cap-and-Trade is not the way to do it. What you need is an honest, flat carbon fee across the board that covers coal, oil, and gas, is collected from the fossil fuel companies, and the money that's collected should be distributed to the public, so that the person who does better than average will actually get more in their dividend than they pay in increased prices. That way, the public would allow this price to go high enough to phase out fossil fuels. And that's what we have to do. But a cap-and-trade system--you have to go big. We tried that with the Kyoto protocol. Most countries just laughed. China and India just laughed at us when we asked them. They're not gonna put a cap-and-trade system on. But if we have this carbon fee, it can be made global.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CM:\u003c/strong> The oil and gas industry and others are still pushing back hard against even the market-based cap-and-trade system here in California. Of course a carbon fee--or tax--would be politically even more difficult to achieve. What do you think the chances of that would be?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JH:\u003c/strong> Well, I don't think it is politically more difficult if it's explained to the public. It should be salable--but of course there's no salesman for it. Politicians have not yet been willing to recognize that we can't burn all the fossil fuels. They're allowing, and even encouraging, fossil fuel companies to go after every fossil fuel they can find. Tar sands, tar shale, fracking, mountaintop removal. It's crazy because our children are going to have to figure out a way to suck that CO2 back out of the atmosphere, or they're going to get problems that will be monumental.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As Hansen and I were talking, negotiators from 194 countries were wrapping up UN climate talks in Quatar. They made scant progress toward an agreement to cut carbon emissions that, if finalized, wouldn't be in place until 2020. Meanwhile, 2012 will likely go down as \u003ca title=\"Climate Central - post\" href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/book-it-2012-the-hottest-year-on-record-15350\">America's warmest year\u003c/a> on record, with worldwide \u003ca title=\"Telegraph - story\" href=\"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9717280/Doha-Latest-figures-show-global-CO2-emissions-are-rising.html\">carbon emissions reaching a record high\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Happy New Year.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"One of the giants of climate science talks about extreme weather...and trashes California's plan to cut emissions.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1443824325,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":16,"wordCount":986},"headData":{"title":"Scientists More Outspoken on Exteme Weather-Climate Links | KQED","description":"One of the giants of climate science talks about extreme weather...and trashes California's plan to cut emissions.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"48152 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?post_type=audio_reports&p=48152","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/12/21/scientists-more-outspoken-on-exteme-weather-climate-links/","disqusTitle":"Scientists More Outspoken on Exteme Weather-Climate Links","path":"/quest/48152/scientists-more-outspoken-on-exteme-weather-climate-links","audioUrl":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/12/20121224science.mp3","audioDuration":null,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"audioLink","attributes":{"named":{"src":"http://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/quest/2012/12/20121224science.mp3"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_48186\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/12/weather.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/12/weather.jpg\" alt=\"extreme weather\" title=\"extreme weather\" width=\"640\" height=\"386\" class=\"size-full wp-image-48186\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/12/weather.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/12/weather-400x241.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Heavy rains put several Northern California towns on flood watch at the end of November. (Photo: Craig Miller)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Recent extreme weather events, from the Midwestern drought to Hurricane Sandy, have \u003ca title=\"Guardian - story\" href=\"http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/dec/14/extreme-weather-climate-change-scientists\">people paying attention to climate change\u003c/a>. Post-Sandy polls have shown a spike in concern about the climate among Americans. Some \u003ca title=\"NPR - story\" href=\"http://www.npr.org/2012/12/13/167075395/new-york-planners-prep-for-a-new-normal-of-powerful-storms\">scientists have been emboldened\u003c/a> to connect these events directly to human-caused global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One of them, \u003ca title=\"NASA - Hansen\" href=\"http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/jhansen.html\">NASA's James Hansen\u003c/a>, who heads NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and is a climate science pioneer. He was in San Francisco this month to receive the \u003ca title=\"NewsFix - post\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/12/05/nasas-hansen-californias-cap-trade-doomed-to-fail/\">Stephen Schneider award\u003c/a> for climate communications. As it happened, he had just written an \u003ca title=\"Guardian - op ed\" href=\"http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/29/climate-change-carbon-price?INTCMP=SRCH\">opinion column\u003c/a> for The Guardian newspaper, which drew some pretty straight lines from global warming to Sandy:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>\"The chances of getting a late October hurricane in New York without the help of global warming are extremely small. In that sense, you can blame Sandy on global warming.\"\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Previously few scientists were willing to link any specific weather events to climate change. In a recent studio interview for KQED Science, I asked Hansen if that's changing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Hansen:\u003c/strong> Well, yes, it's changing in the sense that the climate dice are now noticeably loaded. But in the case of Sandy, the waters in the Atlantic Ocean were a few degrees warmer than normal, so it kept that storm amped up. And, of course, the warmer atmosphere also holds more water vapor, so you get more rainfall and therefore you've got heavier floods. But, in addition, sea level has gone up a measurable amount over the last several decades, and that contributes too. The climate dice are now loaded, and they're becoming more loaded. And it's reaching a level that the public should notice -- that the frequency of extreme events is greater than it used to be.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CM:\u003c/strong> The public, I think is noticing. We've certainly noticed here in California. Just recently, we had one of these multi-day, multi-wave storms referred to as a \"Pineapple Express.\" Are there climate change fingerprints on that type of event, too?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JH:\u003c/strong> Well, there is a fingerprint on extreme rainfall. So if you look at the record rainfalls -- the extreme events -- those are affected by global warming, because the atmosphere holds more water when it's warmer. And the relationship is quite a strong one. So storms -- thunderstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes -- those storms that are driven by a latent heat of water vapor are going to be stronger. The extreme ones are going to be stronger and that's simple physics. But, you can't blame any single event [on warming], so the analogy that was recently drawn of a baseball player on steroids -- that's a good example. He'll hit more home runs, but you can't say that particular home run was because he was on steroids. But you can clearly see there's an impact.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hansen has also not minced words about California's newly-established \u003ca title=\"Q-Sci - cap & trade\" href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/series/capandtrade/\">cap-and-trade program\u003c/a>. At the Commonwealth Club, he drew surprised laughs from the audience when he paused briefly, apparently searching for words, and then blurted out, \"Because it's not -- it's half-assed.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Back in our studios, he explained why he thinks so.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_48160\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 275px\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-48160\" title=\"JHansen_NASA\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/12/JHansen_NASA.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"275\" height=\"183\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">NASA's Jim Hansen: Cap-and-trade won't get the job done. (Photo: NASA)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JH:\u003c/strong> California is very useful in providing an example of how you can have a good economy, compared to the rest of the country, and still have low emissions and hopefully go still lower. But, frankly, Cap-and-Trade is not the way to do it. What you need is an honest, flat carbon fee across the board that covers coal, oil, and gas, is collected from the fossil fuel companies, and the money that's collected should be distributed to the public, so that the person who does better than average will actually get more in their dividend than they pay in increased prices. That way, the public would allow this price to go high enough to phase out fossil fuels. And that's what we have to do. But a cap-and-trade system--you have to go big. We tried that with the Kyoto protocol. Most countries just laughed. China and India just laughed at us when we asked them. They're not gonna put a cap-and-trade system on. But if we have this carbon fee, it can be made global.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CM:\u003c/strong> The oil and gas industry and others are still pushing back hard against even the market-based cap-and-trade system here in California. Of course a carbon fee--or tax--would be politically even more difficult to achieve. What do you think the chances of that would be?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JH:\u003c/strong> Well, I don't think it is politically more difficult if it's explained to the public. It should be salable--but of course there's no salesman for it. Politicians have not yet been willing to recognize that we can't burn all the fossil fuels. They're allowing, and even encouraging, fossil fuel companies to go after every fossil fuel they can find. Tar sands, tar shale, fracking, mountaintop removal. It's crazy because our children are going to have to figure out a way to suck that CO2 back out of the atmosphere, or they're going to get problems that will be monumental.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As Hansen and I were talking, negotiators from 194 countries were wrapping up UN climate talks in Quatar. They made scant progress toward an agreement to cut carbon emissions that, if finalized, wouldn't be in place until 2020. Meanwhile, 2012 will likely go down as \u003ca title=\"Climate Central - post\" href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/book-it-2012-the-hottest-year-on-record-15350\">America's warmest year\u003c/a> on record, with worldwide \u003ca title=\"Telegraph - story\" href=\"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9717280/Doha-Latest-figures-show-global-CO2-emissions-are-rising.html\">carbon emissions reaching a record high\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Happy New Year.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/48152/scientists-more-outspoken-on-exteme-weather-climate-links","authors":["221"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_9"],"tags":["quest_13195","quest_11581","quest_11662","quest_11661","quest_11194"],"featImg":"quest_48187","label":"quest"},"quest_46687":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_46687","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"46687","score":null,"sort":[1351797209000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow","title":"Watching the Atmospheric Rivers Flow","publishDate":1351797209,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46689\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46689\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46689\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-400x225.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Atmospheric river of October 13, 2009. NOAA images\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers are a 21st-century weather threat that first got their name in 1998, after satellites capable of measuring water vapor in the air began producing images like this one. It shows the chronically humid tropical ocean at the bottom, and long, thin streamers of water vapor threading away from the tropics. It was soon estimated that these streamers—atmospheric rivers or ARs—are responsible for essentially all of the moisture transported out of the tropics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The basic connection between ARs and major precipitation events was obvious. In California, our 20th-century name for these is the Pineapple Express: a huge influx of warm, water-heavy air from the tropical Pacific that overfills the rivers and piles snow on the mountains. Smaller ARs may not cause major floods, but they can bump up river flows by 10 times in a day or two. They deliver to California about one-third of its total water. Clearly ARs are important research topics for both scientific and practical reasons. How do they interact with El Niño/La Niña cycles? How will climate change affect them? How can we better protect ourselves from them?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>America has just finished going through Hurricane Sandy. Hurricanes are important events, but ARs affect both coasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's \u003ca href=\"http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/\">AR site\u003c/a> points to the notorious \"Snowmageddon\" blizzard of February 2010 as an East Coast example, when a river of Pacific moisture crossed Central America and the Caribbean before drenching the Atlantic states. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46688\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.gif\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-46688\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Norway got a large AR in the late summer of 2005, and many others are sure to be found in the global weather records. But California seems to be the current champion, maybe because the data is better here. Between 1997 and 2006 there were 42 AR events touching California, of which seven caused major flooding of the type requiring evacuations and triggering large-scale power outages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even without knowing their cause, California has had epic floods during its history, and recently emergency planners have begun to take the \"\u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/geologyandculture/qt/The-Deep-Present.htm\">deep present\u003c/a>\" approach to them. What if the worst example we know, the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862\">great flood of 1862\u003c/a>, were to recur today? That had the earmarks of an unusually large AR event or a rapid series of them. As the planning agencies contemplated that question, they prepared a scenario in 2010 with the Noachian name \u003ca href=\"http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm-2/\">ARkStorm\u003c/a> (for \"AR thousand-year storm\") clearly demonstrating that ARs are our other \"Big One\" beside earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since ARkStorm was completed, several agencies have carried its findings forward. In particular, a new Atmospheric River Observatory is nearing completion at Bodega Bay that will conduct crucial ground-based observations of ARs that pass over the Bay Area. The satellite water-vapor data is not enough, because everything else matters too: the elevation where the moisture sits, the winds at different levels, the temperature profile of the lower atmosphere and much more that meteorologists need for the best modeling. After that, the flood predicters add the model's results to their own knowledge of river levels and soil moisture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What makes ARs so potent is that they bring in air saturated with tropical moisture, the closer to sea level the wetter. Such air will turn its water to rain almost instantly when lifted up by the Coast Range, and again when it hits the Sierra Nevada. The new AR Observatory at Bodega Bay, like others being built along the west coast, will interrogate the air with radar at various wavelengths, measure rainfall with standard gauges and drop-size distribution with disdrometers, and derive water-vapor content from GPS data (an unforeseen benefit of the universal navigation system). More instruments in the mountains near Cazadero will complement it. The promise is that we will be able to accurately forecast these 21st-century events, and their effects in our neighborhoods, a week or more in advance.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Researchers are gearing up to monitor the flood-causing weather monsters known as atmospheric rivers.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1353013009,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":10,"wordCount":659},"headData":{"title":"Watching the Atmospheric Rivers Flow | KQED","description":"Researchers are gearing up to monitor the flood-causing weather monsters known as atmospheric rivers.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"46687 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=46687","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/","disqusTitle":"Watching the Atmospheric Rivers Flow","path":"/quest/46687/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46689\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46689\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46689\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-400x225.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Atmospheric river of October 13, 2009. NOAA images\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers are a 21st-century weather threat that first got their name in 1998, after satellites capable of measuring water vapor in the air began producing images like this one. It shows the chronically humid tropical ocean at the bottom, and long, thin streamers of water vapor threading away from the tropics. It was soon estimated that these streamers—atmospheric rivers or ARs—are responsible for essentially all of the moisture transported out of the tropics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The basic connection between ARs and major precipitation events was obvious. In California, our 20th-century name for these is the Pineapple Express: a huge influx of warm, water-heavy air from the tropical Pacific that overfills the rivers and piles snow on the mountains. Smaller ARs may not cause major floods, but they can bump up river flows by 10 times in a day or two. They deliver to California about one-third of its total water. Clearly ARs are important research topics for both scientific and practical reasons. How do they interact with El Niño/La Niña cycles? How will climate change affect them? How can we better protect ourselves from them?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>America has just finished going through Hurricane Sandy. Hurricanes are important events, but ARs affect both coasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's \u003ca href=\"http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/\">AR site\u003c/a> points to the notorious \"Snowmageddon\" blizzard of February 2010 as an East Coast example, when a river of Pacific moisture crossed Central America and the Caribbean before drenching the Atlantic states. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46688\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.gif\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-46688\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Norway got a large AR in the late summer of 2005, and many others are sure to be found in the global weather records. But California seems to be the current champion, maybe because the data is better here. Between 1997 and 2006 there were 42 AR events touching California, of which seven caused major flooding of the type requiring evacuations and triggering large-scale power outages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even without knowing their cause, California has had epic floods during its history, and recently emergency planners have begun to take the \"\u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/geologyandculture/qt/The-Deep-Present.htm\">deep present\u003c/a>\" approach to them. What if the worst example we know, the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862\">great flood of 1862\u003c/a>, were to recur today? That had the earmarks of an unusually large AR event or a rapid series of them. As the planning agencies contemplated that question, they prepared a scenario in 2010 with the Noachian name \u003ca href=\"http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm-2/\">ARkStorm\u003c/a> (for \"AR thousand-year storm\") clearly demonstrating that ARs are our other \"Big One\" beside earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since ARkStorm was completed, several agencies have carried its findings forward. In particular, a new Atmospheric River Observatory is nearing completion at Bodega Bay that will conduct crucial ground-based observations of ARs that pass over the Bay Area. The satellite water-vapor data is not enough, because everything else matters too: the elevation where the moisture sits, the winds at different levels, the temperature profile of the lower atmosphere and much more that meteorologists need for the best modeling. After that, the flood predicters add the model's results to their own knowledge of river levels and soil moisture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What makes ARs so potent is that they bring in air saturated with tropical moisture, the closer to sea level the wetter. Such air will turn its water to rain almost instantly when lifted up by the Coast Range, and again when it hits the Sierra Nevada. The new AR Observatory at Bodega Bay, like others being built along the west coast, will interrogate the air with radar at various wavelengths, measure rainfall with standard gauges and drop-size distribution with disdrometers, and derive water-vapor content from GPS data (an unforeseen benefit of the universal navigation system). More instruments in the mountains near Cazadero will complement it. The promise is that we will be able to accurately forecast these 21st-century events, and their effects in our neighborhoods, a week or more in advance.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/46687/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow","authors":["6228"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_11"],"tags":["quest_11580","quest_621","quest_11581","quest_1115","quest_13202"],"featImg":"quest_46689","label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.","airtime":"SUN 2pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.possible.fm/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Possible"},"link":"/radio/program/possible","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/possible/id1677184070","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/730YpdUSNlMyPQwNnyjp4k"}},"1a":{"id":"1a","title":"1A","info":"1A is home to the national conversation. 1A brings on great guests and frames the best debate in ways that make you think, share and engage.","airtime":"MON-THU 11pm-12am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/1a.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://the1a.org/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/1a","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=1188724250&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/1A-p947376/","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510316/podcast.xml"}},"all-things-considered":{"id":"all-things-considered","title":"All Things Considered","info":"Every weekday, \u003cem>All Things Considered\u003c/em> hosts Robert Siegel, Audie Cornish, Ari Shapiro, and Kelly McEvers present the program's trademark mix of news, interviews, commentaries, reviews, and offbeat features. Michel Martin hosts on the weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 1pm-2pm, 4:30pm-6:30pm\u003cbr />SAT-SUN 5pm-6pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/All-Things-Considered-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.npr.org/programs/all-things-considered/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/all-things-considered"},"american-suburb-podcast":{"id":"american-suburb-podcast","title":"American Suburb: The Podcast","tagline":"The flip side of gentrification, told through one town","info":"Gentrification is changing cities across America, forcing people from neighborhoods they have long called home. Call them the displaced. Now those priced out of the Bay Area are looking for a better life in an unlikely place. American Suburb follows this migration to one California town along the Delta, 45 miles from San Francisco. But is this once sleepy suburb ready for them?","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/American-Suburb-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"13"},"link":"/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?mt=2&id=1287748328","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/American-Suburb-p1086805/","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/series/american-suburb-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkMzMDExODgxNjA5"}},"baycurious":{"id":"baycurious","title":"Bay Curious","tagline":"Exploring the Bay Area, one question at a time","info":"KQED’s new podcast, Bay Curious, gets to the bottom of the mysteries — both profound and peculiar — that give the Bay Area its unique identity. And we’ll do it with your help! You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. 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You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Mindshift-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED MindShift: How We Will Learn","officialWebsiteLink":"/mindshift/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"2"},"link":"/podcasts/mindshift","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mindshift-podcast/id1078765985","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/464615685/mind-shift-podcast","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/stories-teachers-share","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/0MxSpNYZKNprFLCl7eEtyx"}},"morning-edition":{"id":"morning-edition","title":"Morning Edition","info":"\u003cem>Morning Edition\u003c/em> takes listeners around the country and the world with multi-faceted stories and commentaries every weekday. 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On Our Watch brings listeners into the rooms where officers are questioned and witnesses are interrogated to find out who this system is really protecting. 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