California is in a second year of drought. Gov. Gavin Newsom has asked residents to voluntarily cut water use by 15% across the state to try to shore up our reserves in case of another dry winter. In the meantime, fires are raging around California as bone-dry forests go up like tinderboxes. How did we get here?

As climate change scrambles weather patterns and adds more variability to our lives, it’s time to take stock of what we know about our state’s frequent hot, dry periods so that we can begin planning for a future with less consistent water supplies.

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Bay Curious just finished up a six-part State of Drought series examining the issues. Here’s what we learned.

We are experiencing megadrought conditions

Californians are no strangers to droughts, but we tend to think of them as limited periods of abnormal dryness.

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While “drought” refers to one season or one year’s conditions, climate scientists use the term “megadrought” when arid conditions last for decades. A megadrought might be punctuated by a wet year here or there, but overall the conditions are dry.

“In the southwest, it’s been overall drier since the late 1990s. So we’re talking about a 20-year dry period here now,” said Richard Seager, a climate scientist at the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, “and using the term megadrought is justifiable because it stacks up in terms of the severity and the length with the ones that we’ve inferred from tree ring data back in the medieval period.”

Last year, a study published in the journal Science described how tree rings allowed researchers to conclude that the last time the West experienced sustained arid conditions over decades was a 28-year dry spell that ended in the year 1603.

The study looked at California, eight other states and Northern Mexico and corroborates what scientists have long feared and warned policymakers: Extreme warming will exacerbate any dry spell, making it longer, more severe and more widespread, and this will bake states in the Western U.S. and areas of Mexico with a punishingly long drought.

California was developed during an abnormally wet time

The 20th century saw California grow to become the most populous state in the nation, says Scott Stine, professor emeritus of geography and environmental studies at Cal State East Bay, and that coincided with an especially wet century.

“We built this phenomenal infrastructure, second to none in the world, here in California and in other parts of the West,” he said, “all of it based on the diversion of water and all of it based on the assumption that the 20th century was normal. And the 20th century is not normal.”

We’re feeling the drought more because we use a lot of water

Water sprays across a field with blue mountains looming behind and puffy clouds overhead. — Sprinklers water crops in the Tulelake Irrigation District with water from the Klamath River. (Craig Miller/KQED)

Climate scientists say a megadrought was in the cards for California and the West because of climate cycles, but our large population and dependence on agriculture make the dryness feel more painful. Forty million people living and working in the state, along with so many of the country’s fruits, vegetables and nuts being grown here, mean water levels going into this megadrought may be lower than they were in previous eras.

“The problem of the present day and the coming droughts is that we are set up to need far more water than we should expect at any time in the coming decades and centuries, particularly with the higher temperatures,” Stine said. “We’ve created a monster that we have to continue to feed with water, and the water is just not going to be there.”

California has enough water, but we have to conserve

The idea of prolonged drought is a scary one, but water management experts say we will have enough water if we conserve what we have, using every drop wisely. That’s going to take sacrifice from all Californians, whether they live in cities or farm in the state’s rural areas. All of us are guilty of wastefulness when it comes to water.

“There’s a lot of inefficiencies in our current system that can be fixed,” says Newsha Ajami, director of urban water policy at Stanford University. “We definitely can do a lot more just to make sure we use every drop of water properly. And if we do all the right things, we can survive. But if we don’t, we can actually have a serious breakdown in the system. So we have to be able to adapt to this new reality, which means that we have to rethink how we’re using the water in different ways and reduce waste.”

We need to change how we manage our reservoirs

Aerial view of a lake. The dam is visible and a dry shoreline peeks out above the water. — An aerial view of the Shasta Dam and Reservoir in 1976, with low water levels due to drought. Shasta Dam is located about nine miles northwest of Redding on the Sacramento River. (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation)

California’s water infrastructure was designed under the assumption that about 30% of our water would naturally be stored in the form of snow in the mountains. Each spring, as the snow melts, it flows into the streams and rivers and is collected in reservoirs and lakes for use during drier periods. But that infrastructure is increasingly ill-suited to our weather patterns, due to climate change.

In the past, water was let out of the reservoir whether or not storms were in the forecast to make room for rainwater. That’s because dams both collect water in reservoirs and protect downstream communities from flooding. Increasingly, California’s rainy season is more concentrated and its dry season prolonged, a result of climate change. The state now relies on big, soaking atmospheric rivers for much of its precipitation.

Several reservoirs around the state, including Lake Mendocino, are piloting what’s called Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations. Basically, water managers are waiting to let water out of the reservoirs until they see a big storm coming. That way they can preserve every drop.

There are some big things agriculture can do to manage water better

Agriculture uses 40% of the state’s water, urban areas use 10% and 50% goes back into the environment to support natural ecosystems. Because the farming industry’s water footprint is so large, it’s going to have to cut usage to survive a megadrought, according to Jay Lund, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at UC Davis. That’s because some irrigated land is much more productive than other land.

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“We can have a tremendous amount of reduction in irrigated acreage,” he said. “If you take it out of the less productive crops on the least productive land, you’re going to have much less of an economic impact than if you took it out of almonds.”

He says farmers make 90% of their revenue from the crops grown on only 50% of the land. That means we can cut back on irrigating that other half — where we grow the lower-value crops that use a lot of water.

“I think we’re probably going to see on the order of 20% of the irrigated agriculture go out of production in order to keep water for other, more productive economic purposes,” Lund says.

That might mean growing fewer of some crops California has become known for: processed tomatoes, vegetables, melons, onions and garlic.

We have to manage our groundwater better

We often talk about farmers pumping groundwater, but many urban areas rely on groundwater as well. In the Bay Area, Santa Clara County — and its biggest city, San José — depend on groundwater for a portion of its drinking water. It’s important to protect our groundwater from pollution and to replenish the aquifers during wet years.

Changes are coming to how the state manages its groundwater. Farmers have long used groundwater stored in underground aquifers during dry years when they receive less water from reservoirs. In fact, some land in the Central Valley is sinking because of overpumping. That’s one reason the state legislature passed a law seven years ago intended to restore balance to the state’s aquifers. The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act requires water districts to limit the water they pump.

If users in a water district pump a lot of water during dry years to water their crops, they’ll have to refrain from growing some crops during wet years to allow the aquifers to refill with rainwater. This new way to manage groundwater will likely have farmers change what they grow over the next two decades.

How we use water in our homes matters, too

Despite a larger population, Californians statewide are using 16% less water than during the last drought, which ended in 2017. That’s because some of the water conservation habits that took off then have stuck around. Low-flow appliances like toilets, dishwashers, washing machines and showerheads are making a difference.

Still, there are more ways urban water users can conserve. One is to install gray water systems that reuse water from activities like laundry or showering for outdoor watering. Many cities and water agencies offer rebates to help cover the costs of such conversions.

And, since half of all urban water use goes to landscaping, homeowners can see big water savings by converting their yards to drought-tolerant landscaping that features native plants adapted to our region’s climate patterns. As a bonus, native plants provide habitat for helpful butterflies and insects.

Maybe it’s time to rethink our lawns

A yard of dried grass sits next door to a lawn of green grass on July 21, 2021, in the Cambrian neighborhood of San Jose, where water restrictions limit the length of watering and the timing. (Beth LaBerge/KQED)

“Lawns should be banned,” said Newsha Ajami of Stanford. “Every drop of water that’s used to maintain that lawn can be a drop of water that we can leave in the reservoir if this drought ends up being a 10-year drought.”

Lush lawns require consistent, deep watering to stay nice. Water experts say it’s time to accept the climate we live in and landscape our yards accordingly. Basically: This isn’t the East Coast, people.

“We can have lawns at the parks, places that the public as a whole can benefit from,” says Ajami. “But if you have a personal lawn that you use once a week, during the weekend, then that’s wrong. You shouldn’t have it.”

Local water agencies are considering ways to boost supply

The mission of our local water agencies is to provide customers with safe, affordable water. As we continue to experience dry weather, that’s getting harder in some areas. Sonoma, Marin and Santa Clara counties are in tough spots right now. That’s led water managers and community members to wonder about bigger solutions to ensure a resilient supply of water long term.

One idea that comes up often is desalination. With the ocean so close, it’s tempting to think that pumping water out and stripping it of salt would be an easy way to ensure we always have water. But desalination is controversial for several reasons.

First, it’s energy intensive and expensive: Desalination plants cost a lot to build and run. And by some estimates, the water they produce costs consumers twice as much. That’s led water agency leaders to think twice about investing in desalination plants that must be run all the time, even in wet years. Desalination might make more sense when a community’s water is brackish, but not as salty as ocean water. That’s the case in Antioch and Newark where desalination plants are part of the local mix.

The other reason many experts don’t think desalination should be our go-to fix is it can harm sea life. The briny byproduct of desalination is twice as salty as ocean water and often dumped back into the sea. Many marine species cannot survive in water with such high salinity. And, sucking in millions of gallons of ocean water means the small organisms that form the building blocks of the food chain are removed.

Recycling our wastewater to potable standards would be a less expensive way to boost our supply. It’s still more expensive than conserving, but many experts think we’ll see more of it in the future. Other dry parts of the world already do this.

We are disconnected from the complicated system that brings us our water

No matter where you live in California, you are benefiting from a massive, complex infrastructure that moves water from water-rich areas of the state to dryer areas, both for agricultural purposes and to sustain urban centers and industry. Very few places in California naturally have enough water to sustain their activities and population.

But this complex system acts in the background, and many of us go about our lives using water without thought. We turn on the tap and the water flows. We don’t often think about how far our water has traveled to reach us.

To make it even more complex, California has a long history of water rights that means some people have better access to water than others. We now have a complicated water market, where people with better water rights can sell their water to junior rights holders and get rich in the process. Several Bay Area water districts depend on buying water to ensure they can meet demand.

If everyone knew where their water came from, and the tentativeness of the supply, it could help with conservation efforts.

The environment is suffering

Two people and a tree are backlit by the bright orange flare of a wildfire. — Firefighters battle flames from the Thomas Fire as they advance on homes atop Shepard Mesa Road in Carpinteria on Dec. 10, 2017. (Santa Barbara County Fire Department via Twitter)

Our State of Drought series focused on how humans can survive on more limited water supplies in a hotter, drier, more variable future. But humans use only half of the state’s water. The other half goes (theoretically) to the environment, to sustain wildlife and ecosystems crucial to California’s identity as a state. But our environment is suffering under climate change, ecosystem mismanagement and too many claims on limited water. Here are just some of the things our natural world grapples with.

The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta looks nothing like the vibrant marshland of the past, but it’s still the largest freshwater estuary on the West Coast. It’s also California’s most crucial water source, supplying two-thirds of the state’s cities and millions of acres of farmland with drinking and irrigation water. But the human engineering that harnessed the delta’s bounty for cities and farms has contributed to its current fragility and challenges.
Drought has taken a toll on our forests, too. Prolonged dry periods have dried out the trees and soil, weakening their defenses against fire. Bone-dry forests are prone to hotter and more destructive wildfires.
Scientists aren’t yet sure of the long-term impacts on the environment of smoke and ash from wildfires. But they do know the Caldor Fire that is burning near Lake Tahoe will likely affect the lake’s renowned clear waters for years to come.
Poor water conditions and increasing heat threaten to destroy salmon populations. Blistering heat waves and extended drought in the western U.S. are raising water temperatures and imperiling fish from Idaho to California.

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Listen to all six episodes of our State of Drought series on Spotify.
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