9 Fake Things That Went Wrong With the Facebook IPO
Reports: Facebook in Talks to Switch From Nasdaq to NYSE as Fallout Over Limp IPO Continues
Facebook Shares Lose 11%, Finish Below IPO Price
Interview With IPO Analyst: What Went Wrong With Facebook Debut and What It Means...
Investors Defriend Social Media Shares as Facebook IPO Fizzles
Facebook IPO Chat With Mercury News Columnist Chris O'Brien
Analysis: 7 Reasons to Sit Out Facebook IPO, Including What Shares Are Currently Worth
LAO's Target Price for Facebook: $45 per Share
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FM","link":"/"}},"news_66463":{"type":"posts","id":"news_66463","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"news","id":"66463","score":null,"sort":[1337987065000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"things-went-wrong-facebook-ipo","title":"9 Fake Things That Went Wrong With the Facebook IPO","publishDate":1337987065,"format":"aside","headTitle":"News Fix | KQED News","labelTerm":{"term":6944,"site":"news"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo4.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-65792\" title=\"facebook-logo\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo4-300x112.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"254\" height=\"95\">\u003c/a>It's been a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/18/facebook-ipo-live-coverage/\">week since Facebook went public\u003c/a>, and investors have been \u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fb&ql=1\">defriending it\u003c/a> ever since. And that may be the \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_20705548/facebook-could-face-huge-damage-claims-from-ipo\">least of the company's worries\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As a public service, and for the historical record, we gave our crack financial team the task of ferreting out what, exactly, happened.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here are nine things they discovered that went wrong with the Facebook IPO...\u003c/p>\n\u003col>\n\u003cli>Mark Zuckerberg updating his status to \"well...that didn't go very well\" an hour after launch provides impetus for short selling\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg's defriending of Morgan Stanley and Nasdaq immediately after first trade results in a mini-panic\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Zuckerberg ringing the Nasdaq bell in his bathing suit gives institutional investors pause\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Virtual shares sold on Farmville dilutes the offering\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\"Strong Buy\" rating from Bernie Madoff sends smart money to the sidelines\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Facebook referring all questions about improper disclosures to Andy Samberg rubs media the wrong way\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Zuckerberg's drunken \"I am the mayor of Crapville\" update interpreted negatively by analysts\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Sole warning of \"potentially increased competition from Friendster\" considered not enough of a risk assessment by SEC\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Mid-day changing of Facebook's ticker symbol from \"FB\" to \"FU\" -- not a good sign for anyone\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ol>\n\u003cp>Happy Memorial Day weekend, everyone!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":null,"status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1590170826,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":6,"wordCount":210},"headData":{"title":"9 Fake Things That Went Wrong With the Facebook IPO | KQED","description":"It's been a week since Facebook went public, and investors have been defriending it ever since. And that may be the least of the company's worries. As a public service, and for the historical record, we gave our crack financial team the task of ferreting out what, exactly, happened. Here are nine things they discovered","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"66463 http://ww2.kqed.org/news/?p=66463","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/25/things-went-wrong-facebook-ipo/","disqusTitle":"9 Fake Things That Went Wrong With the Facebook IPO","path":"/news/66463/things-went-wrong-facebook-ipo","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo4.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-65792\" title=\"facebook-logo\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo4-300x112.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"254\" height=\"95\">\u003c/a>It's been a \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/18/facebook-ipo-live-coverage/\">week since Facebook went public\u003c/a>, and investors have been \u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fb&ql=1\">defriending it\u003c/a> ever since. And that may be the \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_20705548/facebook-could-face-huge-damage-claims-from-ipo\">least of the company's worries\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As a public service, and for the historical record, we gave our crack financial team the task of ferreting out what, exactly, happened.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here are nine things they discovered that went wrong with the Facebook IPO...\u003c/p>\n\u003col>\n\u003cli>Mark Zuckerberg updating his status to \"well...that didn't go very well\" an hour after launch provides impetus for short selling\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg's defriending of Morgan Stanley and Nasdaq immediately after first trade results in a mini-panic\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Zuckerberg ringing the Nasdaq bell in his bathing suit gives institutional investors pause\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Virtual shares sold on Farmville dilutes the offering\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\"Strong Buy\" rating from Bernie Madoff sends smart money to the sidelines\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Facebook referring all questions about improper disclosures to Andy Samberg rubs media the wrong way\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Zuckerberg's drunken \"I am the mayor of Crapville\" update interpreted negatively by analysts\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Sole warning of \"potentially increased competition from Friendster\" considered not enough of a risk assessment by SEC\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Mid-day changing of Facebook's ticker symbol from \"FB\" to \"FU\" -- not a good sign for anyone\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ol>\n\u003cp>Happy Memorial Day weekend, everyone!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/news/66463/things-went-wrong-facebook-ipo","authors":["80"],"programs":["news_6944"],"categories":["news_223","news_1758","news_248"],"tags":["news_249","news_2526","news_250"],"label":"news_6944"},"news_66264":{"type":"posts","id":"news_66264","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"news","id":"66264","score":null,"sort":[1337806777000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"reports-facebook-in-talks-to-switch-from-nasdaq-to-nyse","title":"Reports: Facebook in Talks to Switch From Nasdaq to NYSE as Fallout Over Limp IPO Continues","publishDate":1337806777,"format":"aside","headTitle":"News Fix | KQED News","labelTerm":{"term":6944,"site":"news"},"content":"\u003cp>The fallout over Facebook's weakly received IPO continues. From AP:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>Facebook is in talks with the New York Stock Exchange to move its stock from the Nasdaq Stock Market after a botched initial public offering on Friday, according to a person familiar with the matter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Facebook's much-anticipated IPO was delayed by a half-hour on Friday because of glitches on the Nasdaq.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After pricing at $38, Facebook's stock closed up 23 cents on Friday and has been down since. On Wednesday, it closed up $1, at $32, still down nearly 16 percent from the IPO price.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The news was \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/23/facebook-nyse-idUSL1E8GNE2Q20120523\">reported earlier by Reuters\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Here's Bloomberg TV's Cory Johnson \u003ca href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/video/93297723-facebook-nyse-may-have-talked-about-listing-switch.html\">discussing the reported switcheroo\u003c/a>. Johnson says, \"I'm gonna go out on a limb here: I've never heard of anything like this, right after an IPO a company considering another listing. [But] there's never been a listing as screwed up as this was on the Nasdaq.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last week, after the Facebook IPO \u003ca href=\"http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/23/technology/facebook-ipo-what-went-wrong/\">landed with a thud\u003c/a>, we \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/18/interview-with-a-facebook-skeptic-what-went-wrong-today-and-why/\">talked to Sam Hamadeh, CEO of IPO research firm PrivCo\u003c/a>, who had earlier given us \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/16/analysis-facebook-ipo-worth-25-per-share/\">seven reasons to avoid Facebook stock\u003c/a>, at least initially. He predicted there was going to be some finger-pointing this week, though he thought the shoe may be on the other foot in terms of Facebook vs. Nasdaq...\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>Morgan Stanley looks horrible right now. The Nasdaq looks horrible. There are people who own IPO shares or bought this morning – they haven't even received trade confirmations yet. There are millions of shares traded that aren't even technically cleared yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nasdaq did make extra efforts to do a dress rehearsal, looping in all of the regional exchanges affiliated with it. But even with that you had some major hiccups, the trades not clearing, the delay in the opening, the Zynga flash crash.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Morgan Stanley's embarrassed, Nasdaq's embarrassed. I think they're going to blame Facebook. They'll say these guys were pulled kicking and screaming into this process. Mark Zuckerberg only showed up for two of the roadshow stops and barely took questions. He didn't even bother to put on a dress shirt.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Following Facebook's initial failure-to-launch, things have not gotten any better. The stock \u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=FB+Historical+Prices\">continued to drop\u003c/a> (it finally \u003ca href=\"http://www.cnbc.com/id/47534210?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo\">finished up\u003c/a> today), and \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-facebook-forecasts-idUSBRE84L06920120522\">reports\u003c/a> that lead underwriter Morgan Stanley revealed its reduced revenue forecast to select clients before the IPO drew the \u003ca href=\"http://www.cnbc.com/id/47524452\">concern of both federal regulators\u003c/a> and the \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/23/us-facebook-congress-ipo-idUSBRE84M12120120523\">U.S. Senate Banking Committee\u003c/a>. (Yesterday, various news outlets \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/23/us-facebook-analysts-idUSBRE84M08W20120523\">reported that Facebook itself gave this guidance\u003c/a> to Morgan Stanley analysts.) And of course, there's a \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/05/23/businessinsiderheres-the-damning-fa.DTL\">lawsuit\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, increased scrutiny of Facebook's business model, as well as other aspects of the company, have proliferated in the media:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.technologyreview.com/web/40437/?nlid=nldly&nld=2012-05-22\">The Facebook Fallacy\u003c/a> (Technology Review)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-facebook-pressure-idUSBRE84L00U20120522\">Facebook stock slide puts new pressures on company\u003c/a>(Reuters)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2012/05/facebook_ipo_has_social_networking_supplanted_real_innovation_in_silicon_valley_.html\">Has Facebook Ruined Silicon Valley?\u003c/a> (Slate)\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stay tuned...if you give a \u003ca href=\"http://fvguide.org/farmville-farm-cash/\">Farmville dollar's\u003c/a> worth of manure, that is. Some people are \u003ca href=\"http://bostonherald.com/news/columnists/view/20120520why_i_really_like_that_facebooks_ipo_fell_flat\">experiencing Facebook Schadenfreude\u003c/a>. Others may feel they have a \u003ca href=\"http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76640.html\">rooting interest, even if they're not shareholders\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":null,"status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1337819967,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":16,"wordCount":536},"headData":{"title":"Reports: Facebook in Talks to Switch From Nasdaq to NYSE as Fallout Over Limp IPO Continues | KQED","description":"The fallout over Facebook's weakly received IPO continues. From AP: Facebook is in talks with the New York Stock Exchange to move its stock from the Nasdaq Stock Market after a botched initial public offering on Friday, according to a person familiar with the matter. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because they","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"66264 http://ww2.kqed.org/news/?p=66264","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/23/reports-facebook-in-talks-to-switch-from-nasdaq-to-nyse/","disqusTitle":"Reports: Facebook in Talks to Switch From Nasdaq to NYSE as Fallout Over Limp IPO Continues","path":"/news/66264/reports-facebook-in-talks-to-switch-from-nasdaq-to-nyse","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The fallout over Facebook's weakly received IPO continues. From AP:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>Facebook is in talks with the New York Stock Exchange to move its stock from the Nasdaq Stock Market after a botched initial public offering on Friday, according to a person familiar with the matter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Facebook's much-anticipated IPO was delayed by a half-hour on Friday because of glitches on the Nasdaq.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After pricing at $38, Facebook's stock closed up 23 cents on Friday and has been down since. On Wednesday, it closed up $1, at $32, still down nearly 16 percent from the IPO price.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The news was \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/23/facebook-nyse-idUSL1E8GNE2Q20120523\">reported earlier by Reuters\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Here's Bloomberg TV's Cory Johnson \u003ca href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/video/93297723-facebook-nyse-may-have-talked-about-listing-switch.html\">discussing the reported switcheroo\u003c/a>. Johnson says, \"I'm gonna go out on a limb here: I've never heard of anything like this, right after an IPO a company considering another listing. [But] there's never been a listing as screwed up as this was on the Nasdaq.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Last week, after the Facebook IPO \u003ca href=\"http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/23/technology/facebook-ipo-what-went-wrong/\">landed with a thud\u003c/a>, we \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/18/interview-with-a-facebook-skeptic-what-went-wrong-today-and-why/\">talked to Sam Hamadeh, CEO of IPO research firm PrivCo\u003c/a>, who had earlier given us \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/16/analysis-facebook-ipo-worth-25-per-share/\">seven reasons to avoid Facebook stock\u003c/a>, at least initially. He predicted there was going to be some finger-pointing this week, though he thought the shoe may be on the other foot in terms of Facebook vs. Nasdaq...\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>Morgan Stanley looks horrible right now. The Nasdaq looks horrible. There are people who own IPO shares or bought this morning – they haven't even received trade confirmations yet. There are millions of shares traded that aren't even technically cleared yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nasdaq did make extra efforts to do a dress rehearsal, looping in all of the regional exchanges affiliated with it. But even with that you had some major hiccups, the trades not clearing, the delay in the opening, the Zynga flash crash.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Morgan Stanley's embarrassed, Nasdaq's embarrassed. I think they're going to blame Facebook. They'll say these guys were pulled kicking and screaming into this process. Mark Zuckerberg only showed up for two of the roadshow stops and barely took questions. He didn't even bother to put on a dress shirt.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Following Facebook's initial failure-to-launch, things have not gotten any better. The stock \u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=FB+Historical+Prices\">continued to drop\u003c/a> (it finally \u003ca href=\"http://www.cnbc.com/id/47534210?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo\">finished up\u003c/a> today), and \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-facebook-forecasts-idUSBRE84L06920120522\">reports\u003c/a> that lead underwriter Morgan Stanley revealed its reduced revenue forecast to select clients before the IPO drew the \u003ca href=\"http://www.cnbc.com/id/47524452\">concern of both federal regulators\u003c/a> and the \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/23/us-facebook-congress-ipo-idUSBRE84M12120120523\">U.S. Senate Banking Committee\u003c/a>. (Yesterday, various news outlets \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/23/us-facebook-analysts-idUSBRE84M08W20120523\">reported that Facebook itself gave this guidance\u003c/a> to Morgan Stanley analysts.) And of course, there's a \u003ca href=\"http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/05/23/businessinsiderheres-the-damning-fa.DTL\">lawsuit\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, increased scrutiny of Facebook's business model, as well as other aspects of the company, have proliferated in the media:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.technologyreview.com/web/40437/?nlid=nldly&nld=2012-05-22\">The Facebook Fallacy\u003c/a> (Technology Review)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-facebook-pressure-idUSBRE84L00U20120522\">Facebook stock slide puts new pressures on company\u003c/a>(Reuters)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2012/05/facebook_ipo_has_social_networking_supplanted_real_innovation_in_silicon_valley_.html\">Has Facebook Ruined Silicon Valley?\u003c/a> (Slate)\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stay tuned...if you give a \u003ca href=\"http://fvguide.org/farmville-farm-cash/\">Farmville dollar's\u003c/a> worth of manure, that is. Some people are \u003ca href=\"http://bostonherald.com/news/columnists/view/20120520why_i_really_like_that_facebooks_ipo_fell_flat\">experiencing Facebook Schadenfreude\u003c/a>. Others may feel they have a \u003ca href=\"http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76640.html\">rooting interest, even if they're not shareholders\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/news/66264/reports-facebook-in-talks-to-switch-from-nasdaq-to-nyse","authors":["80"],"programs":["news_6944"],"categories":["news_1758","news_248"],"tags":["news_249","news_2526"],"label":"news_6944"},"news_65872":{"type":"posts","id":"news_65872","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"news","id":"65872","score":null,"sort":[1337635209000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"facebook-stock-tanking-on-2nd-day","title":"Facebook Shares Lose 11%, Finish Below IPO Price","publishDate":1337635209,"format":"aside","headTitle":"News Fix | KQED News","labelTerm":{"term":6944,"site":"news"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003ciframe marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" align=\"right\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"http://api.finance.yahoo.com/instrument/1.0/FB/badge;quote/HTML?AppID=xzg8CNaH9gJySRTMb0mwgsk-&sig=7QbsRbpzIcnBvqm_bFBx7lW4nA8-&t=1337614094399\" width=\"200px\" height=\"321px\">\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com\">Yahoo! Finance\u003c/a>\u003c/iframe>\u003cbr>\nNEW YORK (AP) Facebook shares finished at $34.03, well below its $38 IPO price in the social network's second day of trading as a public company. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"There must have been some sober second thoughts about this,\" said Brian Wieser, an analyst at Pivotal Research Group who was first to come out with a \"Sell\" rating on Facebook's stock on Friday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's not that he thinks the world's largest online social network is a bad investment. But at $38 per share, it's just too expensive considering the risks associated with Facebook's brief history and unproven advertising model, he says. His fair price, or \"target price,\" is $30.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Initial public offerings are a delicate game of supply and demand. The investment banks orchestrating the transaction, the deal's underwriters, work with the company to decide how much stock to sell and at what price.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In Facebook's case, says Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Securities, the \"underwriters gave FB poor advice, and allowed them to sell too much stock, then didn't properly sell the deal.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Investors and technology industry watchers are closely tracking the Menlo Park, Calif.-based company's shares. Facebook's initial public stock offering was one of the most anticipated ever, and now serves as a bellwether for other social media companies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be fair, Facebook's market debut Friday suffered some hiccups. Trading on the Nasdaq was delayed for a half hour due to issues with traders' orders. The stock closed Friday just a few cents above where it priced Thursday night. Although many investors had hoped for a big first-day pop, Facebook's stock opened Friday at $42.05 and fluctuated between $45 and $38 throughout the day before closing at $38.23.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who came out with an \"Outperform\" rating on Facebook before its IPO, said he thinks the investment banks that arranged the offering overestimated demand for the company's stock. Last week, the bankers, led by Morgan Stanley, increased the offering price range. On Wednesday, Facebook's early investors and other stockholders increased the number of shares they planned to sell in the IPO. Both moves appeared to signal strong demand for the shares.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The late addition of 84 million shares to the offering overwhelmed demand, limiting the first day price,\" Pachter said in a note to investors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Shares of some related social media companies also declined Monday. Zynga Inc., which makes FarmVille, CityVille and Mafia Wars, and gets the bulk of its revenue from Facebook users, fell about 1 percent to $7.07. The stock hit as low as $6.36, its lowest level since the San Francisco company's December IPO. LinkedIn Corp., a network for professionals, dropped 1 percent to $97.99.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fb&ql=1\">\u003cstrong>Real-time stock quote\u003c/strong>\u003c/a> (Yahoo! Finance)\n\u003c/li>\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/\">\u003cstrong>Watch live: Bloomberg TV\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\n\u003c/li>\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/18/interview-with-a-facebook-skeptic-what-went-wrong-today-and-why/\">\u003cstrong>Facebook IPO: What went wrong\u003c/strong>\u003c/a> (News Fix)\n\u003c/li>\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Last week, the underwriters, led by Morgan Stanley, increased the offering price range. On Wednesday, Facebook's early investors and other stockholders increased the number of shares they were selling in the IPO. Both had seemingly been signals that there was strong demand for shares.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The late addition of 84 million shares to the offering overwhelmed demand, limiting the first day price,\" Pachter said in a note to investors.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":null,"status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1337635498,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":554},"headData":{"title":"Facebook Shares Lose 11%, Finish Below IPO Price | KQED","description":"Yahoo! Finance NEW YORK (AP) Facebook shares finished at $34.03, well below its $38 IPO price in the social network's second day of trading as a public company. "There must have been some sober second thoughts about this," said Brian Wieser, an analyst at Pivotal Research Group who was first to come out with a","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"65872 http://ww2.kqed.org/news/?p=65872","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/21/facebook-stock-tanking-on-2nd-day/","disqusTitle":"Facebook Shares Lose 11%, Finish Below IPO Price","path":"/news/65872/facebook-stock-tanking-on-2nd-day","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ciframe marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" align=\"right\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"http://api.finance.yahoo.com/instrument/1.0/FB/badge;quote/HTML?AppID=xzg8CNaH9gJySRTMb0mwgsk-&sig=7QbsRbpzIcnBvqm_bFBx7lW4nA8-&t=1337614094399\" width=\"200px\" height=\"321px\">\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com\">Yahoo! Finance\u003c/a>\u003c/iframe>\u003cbr>\nNEW YORK (AP) Facebook shares finished at $34.03, well below its $38 IPO price in the social network's second day of trading as a public company. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"There must have been some sober second thoughts about this,\" said Brian Wieser, an analyst at Pivotal Research Group who was first to come out with a \"Sell\" rating on Facebook's stock on Friday.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's not that he thinks the world's largest online social network is a bad investment. But at $38 per share, it's just too expensive considering the risks associated with Facebook's brief history and unproven advertising model, he says. His fair price, or \"target price,\" is $30.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Initial public offerings are a delicate game of supply and demand. The investment banks orchestrating the transaction, the deal's underwriters, work with the company to decide how much stock to sell and at what price.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In Facebook's case, says Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Securities, the \"underwriters gave FB poor advice, and allowed them to sell too much stock, then didn't properly sell the deal.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Investors and technology industry watchers are closely tracking the Menlo Park, Calif.-based company's shares. Facebook's initial public stock offering was one of the most anticipated ever, and now serves as a bellwether for other social media companies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To be fair, Facebook's market debut Friday suffered some hiccups. Trading on the Nasdaq was delayed for a half hour due to issues with traders' orders. The stock closed Friday just a few cents above where it priced Thursday night. Although many investors had hoped for a big first-day pop, Facebook's stock opened Friday at $42.05 and fluctuated between $45 and $38 throughout the day before closing at $38.23.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who came out with an \"Outperform\" rating on Facebook before its IPO, said he thinks the investment banks that arranged the offering overestimated demand for the company's stock. Last week, the bankers, led by Morgan Stanley, increased the offering price range. On Wednesday, Facebook's early investors and other stockholders increased the number of shares they planned to sell in the IPO. Both moves appeared to signal strong demand for the shares.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The late addition of 84 million shares to the offering overwhelmed demand, limiting the first day price,\" Pachter said in a note to investors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Shares of some related social media companies also declined Monday. Zynga Inc., which makes FarmVille, CityVille and Mafia Wars, and gets the bulk of its revenue from Facebook users, fell about 1 percent to $7.07. The stock hit as low as $6.36, its lowest level since the San Francisco company's December IPO. LinkedIn Corp., a network for professionals, dropped 1 percent to $97.99.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fb&ql=1\">\u003cstrong>Real-time stock quote\u003c/strong>\u003c/a> (Yahoo! Finance)\n\u003c/li>\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/\">\u003cstrong>Watch live: Bloomberg TV\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>\n\u003c/li>\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/18/interview-with-a-facebook-skeptic-what-went-wrong-today-and-why/\">\u003cstrong>Facebook IPO: What went wrong\u003c/strong>\u003c/a> (News Fix)\n\u003c/li>\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Last week, the underwriters, led by Morgan Stanley, increased the offering price range. On Wednesday, Facebook's early investors and other stockholders increased the number of shares they were selling in the IPO. Both had seemingly been signals that there was strong demand for shares.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The late addition of 84 million shares to the offering overwhelmed demand, limiting the first day price,\" Pachter said in a note to investors.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/news/65872/facebook-stock-tanking-on-2nd-day","authors":["237"],"programs":["news_6944"],"categories":["news_1758","news_248"],"tags":["news_249","news_2526"],"label":"news_6944"},"news_65784":{"type":"posts","id":"news_65784","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"news","id":"65784","score":null,"sort":[1337380831000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"interview-with-a-facebook-skeptic-what-went-wrong-today-and-why","title":"Interview With IPO Analyst: What Went Wrong With Facebook Debut and What It Means...","publishDate":1337380831,"format":"aside","headTitle":"News Fix | KQED News","labelTerm":{"term":6944,"site":"news"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo4.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-65792\" title=\"facebook-logo\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo4-300x112.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"112\">\u003c/a>Besides creating the potential for a new crop of 20-somethings to block your driveway with their Lamborghinis, the Facebook IPO has some other significant consequences riding on it. Like \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/15/laos-target-price-for-facebook-45-per-share/\">revenue for the state budget\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2012/05/18/how-will-the-facebook-ipo-affect-local-real-estate/?tsp=1\">local real estate prices\u003c/a>, and the \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_19862712\">general Bay Area economy\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That may diminish whatever \u003ca href=\"http://bostonherald.com/news/columnists/view/20120520why_i_really_like_that_facebooks_ipo_fell_flat\">Schadenfreude\u003c/a> you -- who can't afford face cream right now let alone Facebook -- may be feeling over the following headlines referring to Facebook's big debut: \u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Faceplant for Facebook (\u003ca href=\"http://www.marketwatch.com/\">MarketWatch\u003c/a>)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Big Volume, Little Upside (\u003ca href=\"http://www.cnbc.com/\">CNBC\u003c/a>)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/05/18/facebook-opens-at-42-05-in-debut-but-falls-quickly/?hp\">Scant Gain for Facebook Shares on First Day of Trading\u003c/a> (NY Times)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Facebook off to faltering public start (\u003ca href=\"http://www.ft.com/home/us\">Financial Times\u003c/a>)\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Those all refer to the fact that shares of the highly anticipated offering finished just about a half-percent over the opening price -- and only with the \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-facebook-trading-20120518,0,6622700.story\">help of big buy orders from the underwriter\u003c/a>, to boot. The Big Facebook Bang was also \u003ca href=\"http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/05/18/facebooks-debut-marred-by-trading-glitches/?hp\">marred by trading glitches\u003c/a> on the Nasdaq exchange.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A couple of days ago Sam Hamadeh, CEO of IPO research firm PrivCo, handed us \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/16/analysis-facebook-ipo-worth-25-per-share/\">seven reasons to sit out the Facebook IPO\u003c/a>. Now that the IPO has launched, Hamadeh thinks the entire thing was a bit of a fiasco. Here's an edited transcript from my interview with him after the bell...\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JON BROOKS\u003c/strong>: So what happened today?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH, PRIVCO CEO\u003c/strong>: The first trade was expected to go at 10am ET; at 9:15 early indications of the first clearing price was $45 per share. Once that price hit the tape, a lot of new sell orders came in hoping to get that price. That gradually kept ticking the shares down, unexpectedly. So they changed the first trade to 11 a.m.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">\n\u003cp>Obviously this is an enormous disappointment for people in the Bay Area... I think this probably represents the closing of the IPO window for awhile...\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Throughout the day it seemed like a lot of people got extremely nervous. A lot of people were expecting an easy flip, that the stock could go up 50% or maybe 100%, and once that clearly wasn't happening, it very rapidly started to approach the IPO price of $38 per share. The underwriters actually had to step in and put in what are called supporting bids.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's a standard part of the agreement that if necessary, underwriters will step in with their own capital and provide liquidity in the first hours or couple of days of trading.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All through the last half hour of trading you saw it trading consistently at 38,38.01, and all those buy orders were coming from the underwriters. They were effectively artificially supporting the price. Without them stepping in, the stock would have clearly dropped below the IPO price in what's called on Wall street a busted IPO, a trade below the offering price.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's a big disappointment for almost anybody. But I can't say we were shocked given it was so overvalued.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As to why this happened, one of the missteps was first raising the price range. That clearly would have left some upside for other people. They got a little too greedy. Then two days ago, increasing the total offering by 25%, adding another $4 billion dollars-plus to this offering, really left almost no one left who didn't get to buy. And without anyone left, there just wasn't the demand there to support the stock. Very stunning development for most observers. \u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JON BROOKS\u003c/strong>: How common is it for underwriters to have to step in to support the price?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: It's not unusual to make the guarantee, but it is unusual to have to make good on it. The last major example is Zynga's IPO in December, when it went public at 10, shares immediately started plummeting and underwriters stepped in with a supporting bid at 9. It closed just above 9 per share. Still a busted IPO.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Clearly they had to step in today, and it augurs poorly for what will happen to the stock once that implicit guarantee goes away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One thing to keep in mind, with an $18 billion float, there were 550 million shares traded today, which was bigger than the offering. That means every share traded hands 1 ½ times. The underwriting fee pool was only $190 million. So the underwriters can't risk more than they made on the deal. Their ability to keep it at $38 was very limited by just the size of it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JON BROOKS\u003c/strong>: What about the dive in related social media stocks like Zynga, Pandora, and LinkedIn? How do you interpret that?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: There's no question that companies had risen the last couple of weeks based on an expected Facebook IPO pop, or at least not fallen as much as they otherwise would have. I think a lot of investors got nervous once it became clear this pop wasn't coming; you saw a lot of shorting on those stocks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Facebook isn't shortable; it doesn't have options that trade on it. So if you're trying to hedge, or lets' say you're an employee or an early investor and your shares are locked up for the next six months, the way to bet against Facebook would be to sell other companies as proxy investments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Zynga is probably the closest proxy investment, given that some 11 to 12 percent of Facebook's revenues come from Zynga. Around 11:30 a.m., shortly after it became clear that this pop was going to not be a pop but in fact be a fizzle, massive short positions were initiated. In particular, one large hedge fund placed a massive negative bet on Zynga and it caused it to crash 14 percent in a matter of literally 60 seconds. When that happened it triggered Nasdaq rules to halt trading temporarily in any stock that falls over 10 percent in less than five mintues. That happened twice to Zynga today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Clearly people wanted to get out of Facebook or at least hedge their position in it, and Zynga and some of the other social media stocks were the closest proxy investments to make bets against Facebook.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JON BROOKS\u003c/strong>: So do you think this is the official popping of whatever bubble there was?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: Obviously this is an enormous disappointment for people in the Bay Area. Even if they didn't have stock in Facebook, they at least have stakes indirectly in social media companies they were hoping would get acquired, would be able to go public in the summer or after Labor Day, and the halo effect was supposed to carry into Spotify, Branchout, Airbnb and so forth.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think to us at PrivCo this probably represents the closing of the IPO window for awhile, and any company that's going to try to go public is going to have to dial back on the proportion of the IPO that represents insider sales. Facebook got pretty greedy at the end, with 57 percent of the offering going to insider selling. That's a remarkable percentage. There's only two other IPOs in the past year according to our tracking that had more than 50 percent of the IPO go to insiders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Second, no more raising the price range every few days. Third, no more raising the amount of shares being offered. All those games are over. Clearly Facebook overreached. I don't think this is the headline people wanted going into tomorrow's newspaper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JON BROOKS\u003c/strong>: What happens Monday?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: Morgan Stanley looks horrible right now. The Nasdaq looks horrible. There are people who own IPO shares or bought this morning – they \u003ca href=\"http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/nasdaq-glitch-delays-some-investors-of-facebook-ipo-from-knowing-if-trades-were-completed/2012/05/18/gIQAFY8MZU_story.html\">haven't even received trade confirmations\u003c/a> yet. There are millions of shares traded that aren't even technically cleared yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nasdaq did make extra efforts to do a dress rehearsal, looping in all of the regional exchanges affiliated with it. But even with that you had some major hiccups, the trades not clearing, the delay in the opening, the Zynga flash crash. Morgan Stanley's embarrassed, Nasdaq's embarrassed. I think they're going to blame Facebook. They'll say these guys wer pulled kicking and screaming into this process. Mark Zuckerberg only showed up for two of the roadshow stops and barely took questions. He didn'teven bother to put on a dress shirt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It was a massive IPO, 550 million shares traded, a new record. They're going to blame Facebook management.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And they made big compromises. Nasdaq gave Facebook a two –digit ticker symbol -- Nasdaq stocks are typically a four digits. They agreed to put them in the Nasdaq 100 a year early. They changed the rules just for Facebook, to get the deal. Morgan Stanley took a massive cut in fees. The fees for this deal were only 1.1 percent; the average IPO fees are between 5 and 8 percent of a deal. They did this becase they were hoping new tech IPOs would come to Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley would have bragging rights, getting it done and everyone making money. That's all gone now mostly. None of us watching are saying this is a beautifully executed day.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Well, not everyone was so glum. Some \u003ca href=\"http://storify.com/kqednews/facebook-ipo-it-s-complicated\">other reactions from around the web\u003c/a>, Storified by KQED's Ian Hill.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Also take a look at our Fill in the Blank exercise: I think Faceboo's $104 billion valuation is...\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>http://storify.com/kqednews/i-think-facebook-s-dollar-104-billion-valuation-is\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":null,"status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1337542674,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":34,"wordCount":1586},"headData":{"title":"Interview With IPO Analyst: What Went Wrong With Facebook Debut and What It Means... | KQED","description":"Besides creating the potential for a new crop of 20-somethings to block your driveway with their Lamborghinis, the Facebook IPO has some other significant consequences riding on it. Like revenue for the state budget, local real estate prices, and the general Bay Area economy. That may diminish whatever Schadenfreude you -- who can't afford face","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"65784 http://ww2.kqed.org/news/?p=65784","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/18/interview-with-a-facebook-skeptic-what-went-wrong-today-and-why/","disqusTitle":"Interview With IPO Analyst: What Went Wrong With Facebook Debut and What It Means...","path":"/news/65784/interview-with-a-facebook-skeptic-what-went-wrong-today-and-why","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo4.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-65792\" title=\"facebook-logo\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo4-300x112.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"112\">\u003c/a>Besides creating the potential for a new crop of 20-somethings to block your driveway with their Lamborghinis, the Facebook IPO has some other significant consequences riding on it. Like \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/15/laos-target-price-for-facebook-45-per-share/\">revenue for the state budget\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2012/05/18/how-will-the-facebook-ipo-affect-local-real-estate/?tsp=1\">local real estate prices\u003c/a>, and the \u003ca href=\"http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_19862712\">general Bay Area economy\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That may diminish whatever \u003ca href=\"http://bostonherald.com/news/columnists/view/20120520why_i_really_like_that_facebooks_ipo_fell_flat\">Schadenfreude\u003c/a> you -- who can't afford face cream right now let alone Facebook -- may be feeling over the following headlines referring to Facebook's big debut: \u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Faceplant for Facebook (\u003ca href=\"http://www.marketwatch.com/\">MarketWatch\u003c/a>)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Big Volume, Little Upside (\u003ca href=\"http://www.cnbc.com/\">CNBC\u003c/a>)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/05/18/facebook-opens-at-42-05-in-debut-but-falls-quickly/?hp\">Scant Gain for Facebook Shares on First Day of Trading\u003c/a> (NY Times)\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Facebook off to faltering public start (\u003ca href=\"http://www.ft.com/home/us\">Financial Times\u003c/a>)\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Those all refer to the fact that shares of the highly anticipated offering finished just about a half-percent over the opening price -- and only with the \u003ca href=\"http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-facebook-trading-20120518,0,6622700.story\">help of big buy orders from the underwriter\u003c/a>, to boot. The Big Facebook Bang was also \u003ca href=\"http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/05/18/facebooks-debut-marred-by-trading-glitches/?hp\">marred by trading glitches\u003c/a> on the Nasdaq exchange.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A couple of days ago Sam Hamadeh, CEO of IPO research firm PrivCo, handed us \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/16/analysis-facebook-ipo-worth-25-per-share/\">seven reasons to sit out the Facebook IPO\u003c/a>. Now that the IPO has launched, Hamadeh thinks the entire thing was a bit of a fiasco. Here's an edited transcript from my interview with him after the bell...\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JON BROOKS\u003c/strong>: So what happened today?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH, PRIVCO CEO\u003c/strong>: The first trade was expected to go at 10am ET; at 9:15 early indications of the first clearing price was $45 per share. Once that price hit the tape, a lot of new sell orders came in hoping to get that price. That gradually kept ticking the shares down, unexpectedly. So they changed the first trade to 11 a.m.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">\n\u003cp>Obviously this is an enormous disappointment for people in the Bay Area... I think this probably represents the closing of the IPO window for awhile...\u003c/p>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Throughout the day it seemed like a lot of people got extremely nervous. A lot of people were expecting an easy flip, that the stock could go up 50% or maybe 100%, and once that clearly wasn't happening, it very rapidly started to approach the IPO price of $38 per share. The underwriters actually had to step in and put in what are called supporting bids.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's a standard part of the agreement that if necessary, underwriters will step in with their own capital and provide liquidity in the first hours or couple of days of trading.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All through the last half hour of trading you saw it trading consistently at 38,38.01, and all those buy orders were coming from the underwriters. They were effectively artificially supporting the price. Without them stepping in, the stock would have clearly dropped below the IPO price in what's called on Wall street a busted IPO, a trade below the offering price.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's a big disappointment for almost anybody. But I can't say we were shocked given it was so overvalued.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As to why this happened, one of the missteps was first raising the price range. That clearly would have left some upside for other people. They got a little too greedy. Then two days ago, increasing the total offering by 25%, adding another $4 billion dollars-plus to this offering, really left almost no one left who didn't get to buy. And without anyone left, there just wasn't the demand there to support the stock. Very stunning development for most observers. \u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JON BROOKS\u003c/strong>: How common is it for underwriters to have to step in to support the price?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: It's not unusual to make the guarantee, but it is unusual to have to make good on it. The last major example is Zynga's IPO in December, when it went public at 10, shares immediately started plummeting and underwriters stepped in with a supporting bid at 9. It closed just above 9 per share. Still a busted IPO.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Clearly they had to step in today, and it augurs poorly for what will happen to the stock once that implicit guarantee goes away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One thing to keep in mind, with an $18 billion float, there were 550 million shares traded today, which was bigger than the offering. That means every share traded hands 1 ½ times. The underwriting fee pool was only $190 million. So the underwriters can't risk more than they made on the deal. Their ability to keep it at $38 was very limited by just the size of it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JON BROOKS\u003c/strong>: What about the dive in related social media stocks like Zynga, Pandora, and LinkedIn? How do you interpret that?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: There's no question that companies had risen the last couple of weeks based on an expected Facebook IPO pop, or at least not fallen as much as they otherwise would have. I think a lot of investors got nervous once it became clear this pop wasn't coming; you saw a lot of shorting on those stocks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Facebook isn't shortable; it doesn't have options that trade on it. So if you're trying to hedge, or lets' say you're an employee or an early investor and your shares are locked up for the next six months, the way to bet against Facebook would be to sell other companies as proxy investments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Zynga is probably the closest proxy investment, given that some 11 to 12 percent of Facebook's revenues come from Zynga. Around 11:30 a.m., shortly after it became clear that this pop was going to not be a pop but in fact be a fizzle, massive short positions were initiated. In particular, one large hedge fund placed a massive negative bet on Zynga and it caused it to crash 14 percent in a matter of literally 60 seconds. When that happened it triggered Nasdaq rules to halt trading temporarily in any stock that falls over 10 percent in less than five mintues. That happened twice to Zynga today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Clearly people wanted to get out of Facebook or at least hedge their position in it, and Zynga and some of the other social media stocks were the closest proxy investments to make bets against Facebook.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JON BROOKS\u003c/strong>: So do you think this is the official popping of whatever bubble there was?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: Obviously this is an enormous disappointment for people in the Bay Area. Even if they didn't have stock in Facebook, they at least have stakes indirectly in social media companies they were hoping would get acquired, would be able to go public in the summer or after Labor Day, and the halo effect was supposed to carry into Spotify, Branchout, Airbnb and so forth.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I think to us at PrivCo this probably represents the closing of the IPO window for awhile, and any company that's going to try to go public is going to have to dial back on the proportion of the IPO that represents insider sales. Facebook got pretty greedy at the end, with 57 percent of the offering going to insider selling. That's a remarkable percentage. There's only two other IPOs in the past year according to our tracking that had more than 50 percent of the IPO go to insiders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Second, no more raising the price range every few days. Third, no more raising the amount of shares being offered. All those games are over. Clearly Facebook overreached. I don't think this is the headline people wanted going into tomorrow's newspaper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>JON BROOKS\u003c/strong>: What happens Monday?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: Morgan Stanley looks horrible right now. The Nasdaq looks horrible. There are people who own IPO shares or bought this morning – they \u003ca href=\"http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/nasdaq-glitch-delays-some-investors-of-facebook-ipo-from-knowing-if-trades-were-completed/2012/05/18/gIQAFY8MZU_story.html\">haven't even received trade confirmations\u003c/a> yet. There are millions of shares traded that aren't even technically cleared yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nasdaq did make extra efforts to do a dress rehearsal, looping in all of the regional exchanges affiliated with it. But even with that you had some major hiccups, the trades not clearing, the delay in the opening, the Zynga flash crash. Morgan Stanley's embarrassed, Nasdaq's embarrassed. I think they're going to blame Facebook. They'll say these guys wer pulled kicking and screaming into this process. Mark Zuckerberg only showed up for two of the roadshow stops and barely took questions. He didn'teven bother to put on a dress shirt.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It was a massive IPO, 550 million shares traded, a new record. They're going to blame Facebook management.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And they made big compromises. Nasdaq gave Facebook a two –digit ticker symbol -- Nasdaq stocks are typically a four digits. They agreed to put them in the Nasdaq 100 a year early. They changed the rules just for Facebook, to get the deal. Morgan Stanley took a massive cut in fees. The fees for this deal were only 1.1 percent; the average IPO fees are between 5 and 8 percent of a deal. They did this becase they were hoping new tech IPOs would come to Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley would have bragging rights, getting it done and everyone making money. That's all gone now mostly. None of us watching are saying this is a beautifully executed day.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Well, not everyone was so glum. Some \u003ca href=\"http://storify.com/kqednews/facebook-ipo-it-s-complicated\">other reactions from around the web\u003c/a>, Storified by KQED's Ian Hill.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Also take a look at our Fill in the Blank exercise: I think Faceboo's $104 billion valuation is...\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>http://storify.com/kqednews/i-think-facebook-s-dollar-104-billion-valuation-is\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/news/65784/interview-with-a-facebook-skeptic-what-went-wrong-today-and-why","authors":["80"],"programs":["news_6944"],"categories":["news_1758","news_248"],"tags":["news_249","news_2526"],"label":"news_6944"},"news_65661":{"type":"posts","id":"news_65661","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"news","id":"65661","score":null,"sort":[1337371226000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"facebook-ipo-live-coverage","title":"Investors Defriend Social Media Shares as Facebook IPO Fizzles","publishDate":1337371226,"format":"aside","headTitle":"News Fix | KQED News","labelTerm":{"term":6944,"site":"news"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo3.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-65780\" title=\"facebook-logo\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo3-300x112.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"228\" height=\"85\">\u003c/a>On their first day of trading, Facebook shares finished at $38.23, just about a half-percent above their opening price.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From AP:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>That means Facebook is worth about $104 billion, more than Amazon.com, McDonalds and storied Silicon Valley icons Hewlett-Packard and Cisco. But as many people looked for a big first-day pop in Facebook's share price, the single-digit increase was somewhat of a letdown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>``It wasn't quite as exciting as it could have been,'' said Nick Einhorn, an analyst with IPO advisory firm Renaissance Capital. ``But I don't think we should view it as a failure.''\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Sam Hamadeh of PrivCo, an IPO research firm based in New York, doesn't quite see it that way. The other day he gave us \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/16/analysis-facebook-ipo-worth-25-per-share/\">seven reasons not to buy Facebook\u003c/a>, and he thinks today's debut is a big fizzle. Here's one thing he had to say:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>The market was stunned that the underwriters actually had to step in with \"supporting bids\" to keep Facebook stock from falling below $38/share.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Will put up my interview with Hamadeh, after the market closed, shortly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So...has the bubble popped? Tumbling badly today, these local companies:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LNKD&ql=0\">LinkedIn\u003c/a> - down 6 percent\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=yelp&ql=1\">Yelp\u003c/a> - down 12 percent\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=P\">Pandora\u003c/a> down 7 percent\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ZNGA\">Zynga\u003c/a>- down 13 percent, trading halted twice\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Hamadeh says many traders used short positions on these securities as a hedge against their Facebook shares, since Facebook stock is not shortable yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/\">\u003cstrong>Live coverage from Bloomberg TV here\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More \u003ca href=\"http://www.cnbc.com/id/24494689/\">live coverage, from CNBC\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=c2d4dd14e7\">Tweets\u003c/a> from journalists and others following today's Big Bang... Click on the play button to activate the stream...\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe src=\"http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php/option=com_altcaster/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=c2d4dd14e7/height=550/width=470\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"470px\" height=\"550px\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":null,"status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1337382527,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":16,"wordCount":276},"headData":{"title":"Investors Defriend Social Media Shares as Facebook IPO Fizzles | KQED","description":"On their first day of trading, Facebook shares finished at $38.23, just about a half-percent above their opening price. From AP: That means Facebook is worth about $104 billion, more than Amazon.com, McDonalds and storied Silicon Valley icons Hewlett-Packard and Cisco. But as many people looked for a big first-day pop in Facebook's share price,","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"65661 http://ww2.kqed.org/news/?p=65661","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/18/facebook-ipo-live-coverage/","disqusTitle":"Investors Defriend Social Media Shares as Facebook IPO Fizzles","path":"/news/65661/facebook-ipo-live-coverage","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo3.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-65780\" title=\"facebook-logo\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo3-300x112.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"228\" height=\"85\">\u003c/a>On their first day of trading, Facebook shares finished at $38.23, just about a half-percent above their opening price.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>From AP:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>That means Facebook is worth about $104 billion, more than Amazon.com, McDonalds and storied Silicon Valley icons Hewlett-Packard and Cisco. But as many people looked for a big first-day pop in Facebook's share price, the single-digit increase was somewhat of a letdown.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>``It wasn't quite as exciting as it could have been,'' said Nick Einhorn, an analyst with IPO advisory firm Renaissance Capital. ``But I don't think we should view it as a failure.''\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Sam Hamadeh of PrivCo, an IPO research firm based in New York, doesn't quite see it that way. The other day he gave us \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/16/analysis-facebook-ipo-worth-25-per-share/\">seven reasons not to buy Facebook\u003c/a>, and he thinks today's debut is a big fizzle. Here's one thing he had to say:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>The market was stunned that the underwriters actually had to step in with \"supporting bids\" to keep Facebook stock from falling below $38/share.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>Will put up my interview with Hamadeh, after the market closed, shortly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So...has the bubble popped? Tumbling badly today, these local companies:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LNKD&ql=0\">LinkedIn\u003c/a> - down 6 percent\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=yelp&ql=1\">Yelp\u003c/a> - down 12 percent\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=P\">Pandora\u003c/a> down 7 percent\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ZNGA\">Zynga\u003c/a>- down 13 percent, trading halted twice\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Hamadeh says many traders used short positions on these securities as a hedge against their Facebook shares, since Facebook stock is not shortable yet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/\">\u003cstrong>Live coverage from Bloomberg TV here\u003c/strong>\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More \u003ca href=\"http://www.cnbc.com/id/24494689/\">live coverage, from CNBC\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=c2d4dd14e7\">Tweets\u003c/a> from journalists and others following today's Big Bang... Click on the play button to activate the stream...\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe src=\"http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php/option=com_altcaster/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=c2d4dd14e7/height=550/width=470\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"470px\" height=\"550px\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/news/65661/facebook-ipo-live-coverage","authors":["80"],"programs":["news_6944"],"categories":["news_1758","news_248"],"tags":["news_249","news_2526"],"label":"news_6944"},"news_65718":{"type":"posts","id":"news_65718","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"news","id":"65718","score":null,"sort":[1337364806000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"live-now-facebook-chat-with-mercury-news-columnist-chris-obrien","title":"Facebook IPO Chat With Mercury News Columnist Chris O'Brien","publishDate":1337364806,"format":"aside","headTitle":"News Fix | KQED News","labelTerm":{"term":6944,"site":"news"},"content":"\u003cp>The Bay Area News Group is holding a \u003ca href=\"http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewa%0Altcast/altcast_code=061abc905e\">live chat\u003c/a> with tech columnist Chris O'Brien about today's Facebook IPO.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Click on the play button to activate the chat. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe src=\"http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php/option=com_altcaster/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=061abc905e/height=550/width=400\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"550px\" width=\"400px\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewa%0Altcast/altcast_code=061abc905e\">Live chat about Facebook IPO, May 18 at\u003cbr>\n11 a.m.\u003c/a>\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":null,"status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1337368195,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":5,"wordCount":43},"headData":{"title":"Facebook IPO Chat With Mercury News Columnist Chris O'Brien | KQED","description":"The Bay Area News Group is holding a live chat with tech columnist Chris O'Brien about today's Facebook IPO. Click on the play button to activate the chat. Live chat about Facebook IPO, May 18 at 11 a.m.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"65718 http://ww2.kqed.org/news/?p=65718","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/18/live-now-facebook-chat-with-mercury-news-columnist-chris-obrien/","disqusTitle":"Facebook IPO Chat With Mercury News Columnist Chris O'Brien","path":"/news/65718/live-now-facebook-chat-with-mercury-news-columnist-chris-obrien","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The Bay Area News Group is holding a \u003ca href=\"http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewa%0Altcast/altcast_code=061abc905e\">live chat\u003c/a> with tech columnist Chris O'Brien about today's Facebook IPO.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Click on the play button to activate the chat. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe src=\"http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php/option=com_altcaster/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=061abc905e/height=550/width=400\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"550px\" width=\"400px\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003ca href=\"http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewa%0Altcast/altcast_code=061abc905e\">Live chat about Facebook IPO, May 18 at\u003cbr>\n11 a.m.\u003c/a>\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/news/65718/live-now-facebook-chat-with-mercury-news-columnist-chris-obrien","authors":["80"],"programs":["news_6944"],"categories":["news_1758","news_248"],"tags":["news_249","news_2526"],"label":"news_6944"},"news_65485":{"type":"posts","id":"news_65485","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"news","id":"65485","score":null,"sort":[1337209069000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"analysis-facebook-ipo-worth-25-per-share","title":"Analysis: 7 Reasons to Sit Out Facebook IPO, Including What Shares Are Currently Worth","publishDate":1337209069,"format":"aside","headTitle":"News Fix | KQED News","labelTerm":{"term":6944,"site":"news"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo2.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-65491\" title=\"facebook-logo\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo2-300x112.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"112\">\u003c/a>Wow I almost got out of here without doing a post on Facebook. That company's shares, you may have heard, will start trading on Friday in the most anticipated IPO since someone first trotted out the wheel in 8,000 B.C.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There may be good reasons to buy Facebook stock besides the fact that a desperate California is counting on taxes generated from the IPO to help cobble together a budget. Facebook set the per-share range at $34 to $38, but yesterday the \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/15/laos-target-price-for-facebook-45-per-share/\">Legislative Analyst's Office calculated state revenue for the next year assuming a share price of $45\u003c/a> six months out. At least \u003ca href=\"http://www.thestreet.com/quote/FB/details/analyst-ratings.html\">two stock analysts\u003c/a> -- not from the government -- are already \u003ca href=\"http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/05/07/analysts-offer-bullish-views-on-facebook-ahead-of-ipo/\">bullish\u003c/a> on the 'Book, having weighed in with Buy ratings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sam Hamadeh is not one of them. He's the CEO of PrivCo, an IPO research firm based in New York. His advice: If on Friday you've got your finger on the buy button, take a cold shower or play some \u003ca href=\"http://apps.facebook.com/wordswithfriends/tracks.php?src=community&aff=wwfdotcom&crt=playnow\">Words With Friends\u003c/a> instead. His reasons why in this \u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/news/story/2012/05/16/94242/listen_up_facebook_bulls_a_bear_speaks?category=bay+area\">interview\u003c/a> with KQED's Cy Musiker today...\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: One reason you're bearish: You did an analysis based on the company's 1st quarter results. You noted Facebook is having trouble making money off of advertising on mobile devices. Why is that an issue?\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Reasons to sit out the IPO\n\u003col>\n\u003cli>FB doesn't have good way to monetize mobile users yet, and more than half of users access the site that way.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>FB costs are growing much faster than revenues.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Much of FB's growth in users coming from developing nations, which advertisers don't pay to target.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>FB has been unable to show advertisers a direct translation from ads-viewed to purchases.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Increase in insider selling may be worrisome.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Most recent tech IPOs have tanked.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Current FB valuation should be $25 per share.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ol>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>PRIVCO'S SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: It's an issue because what we saw in the 1st quarter is that Facebook had its slowest revenue growth rate in its history, and in fact it showed one of the only quarter-to-quarter revenue declines in advertising in Facebook history. Facebook's ad revenue fell from the 4th quarter of 2011 to the 1st quarter of this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And one of the key reasons is that more and more users are accessing Facebook on mobile devices. Just based on space limitations, mobile devices can't show those seven ads per page that Facebook has been used to. It's a real issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: And more than one-half of users logon via smartphones and tablets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: That's correct, and as Facebook said in a recent filing late last week the move to mobile is happening much more rapidly and has caught Facebook off-guard. At this time Facebook doesn't have any strong ability to monetize mobile users the same way they do on the website. And so this rapid shift has continued in the 2nd quarter and they don’t see it abating anytime soon, if ever.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: You also raised a red flag in that much of the growth in Facebook users is coming from developing nations…\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong> That's a two-sided coin. On the one hand it represents an opportunity, of course. They're moving into developing markets early, countries like Cambodia, Nigeria, Vietnam. The downside is that those are cost centers for Facebook. Those users still upload photos and videos costing Facebook money to host them -- in fact we saw in the first quarter that Facebook's data server and hosting costs almost doubled from the prior quarter despite revenue growing just under 50%. \u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So costs for Facebook are growing much faster than revenues, and one of the main reasons is that so many of the new users are coming from developing countries, and advertisers just don't pay to target those people at this point, or will any time soon really.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: A poll this week found Facebook users are reluctant to make purchases by clicking on Facebook ads, and GM announced yesterday that it plans to stop spending 10 million dollars on Facebook ads. Is that significant?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: I can't think of a worse time for GM to make that announcement. To have right before the IPO one of the three biggest advertisers in America come out and say it's cancelling it's entire $10 million advertising spend is embarrassing to Facebook and of course it's concerning. A lot of advertisers look to those big advertisers like GM as sort of leadership to guide them where to spend their money.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: But \u003ca href=\"http://www.clickz.com/clickz/news/2174988/unlike-gm-ford-bullish-facebook-ads\">Ford mocked GM's decision\u003c/a>, and a lot of advertisers are entranced with the way Facebook lets them target their ads so effectively, because users voluntarily reveal so much about themselves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: I would say it's a mixed bag. There's no question a lot of advertisers feel like they have to be doing something on Facebook at a minimum, a little bit of spend just for learning. But the problem is that for the most part Facebook has been unable to show a direct translation from ads viewed to actual purchases. At some point they have to come up with more data and metrics the same way Google does and Nielsen does for TV advertising. They have to be able to show direct return on investment to advertisers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: The \u003ca href=\"http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303448404577407774136362662.html\">Wall Street Journal reports\u003c/a> a number of insiders are selling a significant share of their holdings. That includes some Facebook directors. Are they bailing on the company or just taking advantage of a chance for profits?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: I think it's a combination of things. A good chunk of insider selling is tax-related. Zuckerberg is selling roughly $1 billion of stock into the IPO, but he's using some $900 million of it to pay taxes to California and the federal government. He is pocketing $142 million by PrivCo calculations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there is a lot of selling going on. It's starting to get to the point where it should be a little bit of a warning sign. At the same time, with demand being there, you can't really blame people for taking money off the table, especially at such a high valuation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: In regard to recent tech IPOs, like Groupon, Yelp, etc., how well have investors done who have gotten in the first few days or weeks?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: Except for LinkedIn, which has performed exceedingly well, every other company has performed quite poorly. Every investor who bought Groupon, Zynga, Pandora, etc on the first day of trading has lost money.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's something to keep in mind: Just because a company is a good company doesn't make it a good investment. And I think people really should be cautious at such an expensive valuation for Facebook. You can still like Facebook and the trend it represents without buying it as an investment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: What would you pay for Facebook shares?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: PrivCo values it at $25 per share using pretty standard investment-banking-type methodologies. That's the fair value of Facebook stock today. Anything above that now would indicate overvaluation and a reason to sell not buy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It will go to market around $38 and will probably open for trading well above that. Even if you're tempted to buy shares on the first day, use a limit order. At least set an upper limit, whether that's $45 or $50 so that you suddenly don't find yourself buying shares at $100 without realizing it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: Are there signs of shorting yet?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: Not a lot of signs of that. It would be a very risky short. If someone were to short, you might want to go long in what's called a pair trade. If you went short on Facebook, you'd go long on another company like a Google or a LinkedIn, without recommending a specific stock, so that if social media goes up, you have a hedge against it.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":null,"status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1337215886,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":28,"wordCount":1367},"headData":{"title":"Analysis: 7 Reasons to Sit Out Facebook IPO, Including What Shares Are Currently Worth | KQED","description":"Wow I almost got out of here without doing a post on Facebook. That company's shares, you may have heard, will start trading on Friday in the most anticipated IPO since someone first trotted out the wheel in 8,000 B.C. There may be good reasons to buy Facebook stock besides the fact that a desperate","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"65485 http://ww2.kqed.org/news/?p=65485","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/16/analysis-facebook-ipo-worth-25-per-share/","disqusTitle":"Analysis: 7 Reasons to Sit Out Facebook IPO, Including What Shares Are Currently Worth","path":"/news/65485/analysis-facebook-ipo-worth-25-per-share","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo2.jpg\">\u003cimg class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-65491\" title=\"facebook-logo\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo2-300x112.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"112\">\u003c/a>Wow I almost got out of here without doing a post on Facebook. That company's shares, you may have heard, will start trading on Friday in the most anticipated IPO since someone first trotted out the wheel in 8,000 B.C.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There may be good reasons to buy Facebook stock besides the fact that a desperate California is counting on taxes generated from the IPO to help cobble together a budget. Facebook set the per-share range at $34 to $38, but yesterday the \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/15/laos-target-price-for-facebook-45-per-share/\">Legislative Analyst's Office calculated state revenue for the next year assuming a share price of $45\u003c/a> six months out. At least \u003ca href=\"http://www.thestreet.com/quote/FB/details/analyst-ratings.html\">two stock analysts\u003c/a> -- not from the government -- are already \u003ca href=\"http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/05/07/analysts-offer-bullish-views-on-facebook-ahead-of-ipo/\">bullish\u003c/a> on the 'Book, having weighed in with Buy ratings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sam Hamadeh is not one of them. He's the CEO of PrivCo, an IPO research firm based in New York. His advice: If on Friday you've got your finger on the buy button, take a cold shower or play some \u003ca href=\"http://apps.facebook.com/wordswithfriends/tracks.php?src=community&aff=wwfdotcom&crt=playnow\">Words With Friends\u003c/a> instead. His reasons why in this \u003ca href=\"http://www.kqed.org/news/story/2012/05/16/94242/listen_up_facebook_bulls_a_bear_speaks?category=bay+area\">interview\u003c/a> with KQED's Cy Musiker today...\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: One reason you're bearish: You did an analysis based on the company's 1st quarter results. You noted Facebook is having trouble making money off of advertising on mobile devices. Why is that an issue?\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">Reasons to sit out the IPO\n\u003col>\n\u003cli>FB doesn't have good way to monetize mobile users yet, and more than half of users access the site that way.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>FB costs are growing much faster than revenues.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Much of FB's growth in users coming from developing nations, which advertisers don't pay to target.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>FB has been unable to show advertisers a direct translation from ads-viewed to purchases.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Increase in insider selling may be worrisome.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Most recent tech IPOs have tanked.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Current FB valuation should be $25 per share.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ol>\n\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>PRIVCO'S SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: It's an issue because what we saw in the 1st quarter is that Facebook had its slowest revenue growth rate in its history, and in fact it showed one of the only quarter-to-quarter revenue declines in advertising in Facebook history. Facebook's ad revenue fell from the 4th quarter of 2011 to the 1st quarter of this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And one of the key reasons is that more and more users are accessing Facebook on mobile devices. Just based on space limitations, mobile devices can't show those seven ads per page that Facebook has been used to. It's a real issue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: And more than one-half of users logon via smartphones and tablets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: That's correct, and as Facebook said in a recent filing late last week the move to mobile is happening much more rapidly and has caught Facebook off-guard. At this time Facebook doesn't have any strong ability to monetize mobile users the same way they do on the website. And so this rapid shift has continued in the 2nd quarter and they don’t see it abating anytime soon, if ever.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: You also raised a red flag in that much of the growth in Facebook users is coming from developing nations…\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong> That's a two-sided coin. On the one hand it represents an opportunity, of course. They're moving into developing markets early, countries like Cambodia, Nigeria, Vietnam. The downside is that those are cost centers for Facebook. Those users still upload photos and videos costing Facebook money to host them -- in fact we saw in the first quarter that Facebook's data server and hosting costs almost doubled from the prior quarter despite revenue growing just under 50%. \u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So costs for Facebook are growing much faster than revenues, and one of the main reasons is that so many of the new users are coming from developing countries, and advertisers just don't pay to target those people at this point, or will any time soon really.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: A poll this week found Facebook users are reluctant to make purchases by clicking on Facebook ads, and GM announced yesterday that it plans to stop spending 10 million dollars on Facebook ads. Is that significant?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: I can't think of a worse time for GM to make that announcement. To have right before the IPO one of the three biggest advertisers in America come out and say it's cancelling it's entire $10 million advertising spend is embarrassing to Facebook and of course it's concerning. A lot of advertisers look to those big advertisers like GM as sort of leadership to guide them where to spend their money.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: But \u003ca href=\"http://www.clickz.com/clickz/news/2174988/unlike-gm-ford-bullish-facebook-ads\">Ford mocked GM's decision\u003c/a>, and a lot of advertisers are entranced with the way Facebook lets them target their ads so effectively, because users voluntarily reveal so much about themselves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: I would say it's a mixed bag. There's no question a lot of advertisers feel like they have to be doing something on Facebook at a minimum, a little bit of spend just for learning. But the problem is that for the most part Facebook has been unable to show a direct translation from ads viewed to actual purchases. At some point they have to come up with more data and metrics the same way Google does and Nielsen does for TV advertising. They have to be able to show direct return on investment to advertisers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: The \u003ca href=\"http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303448404577407774136362662.html\">Wall Street Journal reports\u003c/a> a number of insiders are selling a significant share of their holdings. That includes some Facebook directors. Are they bailing on the company or just taking advantage of a chance for profits?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: I think it's a combination of things. A good chunk of insider selling is tax-related. Zuckerberg is selling roughly $1 billion of stock into the IPO, but he's using some $900 million of it to pay taxes to California and the federal government. He is pocketing $142 million by PrivCo calculations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there is a lot of selling going on. It's starting to get to the point where it should be a little bit of a warning sign. At the same time, with demand being there, you can't really blame people for taking money off the table, especially at such a high valuation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: In regard to recent tech IPOs, like Groupon, Yelp, etc., how well have investors done who have gotten in the first few days or weeks?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: Except for LinkedIn, which has performed exceedingly well, every other company has performed quite poorly. Every investor who bought Groupon, Zynga, Pandora, etc on the first day of trading has lost money.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's something to keep in mind: Just because a company is a good company doesn't make it a good investment. And I think people really should be cautious at such an expensive valuation for Facebook. You can still like Facebook and the trend it represents without buying it as an investment.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: What would you pay for Facebook shares?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: PrivCo values it at $25 per share using pretty standard investment-banking-type methodologies. That's the fair value of Facebook stock today. Anything above that now would indicate overvaluation and a reason to sell not buy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It will go to market around $38 and will probably open for trading well above that. Even if you're tempted to buy shares on the first day, use a limit order. At least set an upper limit, whether that's $45 or $50 so that you suddenly don't find yourself buying shares at $100 without realizing it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>CY MUSIKER\u003c/strong>: Are there signs of shorting yet?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>SAM HAMADEH\u003c/strong>: Not a lot of signs of that. It would be a very risky short. If someone were to short, you might want to go long in what's called a pair trade. If you went short on Facebook, you'd go long on another company like a Google or a LinkedIn, without recommending a specific stock, so that if social media goes up, you have a hedge against it.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/news/65485/analysis-facebook-ipo-worth-25-per-share","authors":["80"],"programs":["news_6944"],"categories":["news_1758","news_248"],"tags":["news_249","news_2526"],"label":"news_6944"},"news_65372":{"type":"posts","id":"news_65372","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"news","id":"65372","score":null,"sort":[1337122261000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"laos-target-price-for-facebook-45-per-share","title":"LAO's Target Price for Facebook: $45 per Share","publishDate":1337122261,"format":"aside","headTitle":"News Fix | KQED News","labelTerm":{"term":6944,"site":"news"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo1.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo1-300x112.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"facebook-logo\" width=\"300\" height=\"112\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-65381\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://www.google.com/search?q=facebook+ipo\">Speaking of the Big Facebook Bang\u003c/a>, the California Legislative Analyst's Office \u003ca href=\"http://www.lao.ca.gov/laoapp/budgetlist/PublicSearch.aspx?Yr=2012&KeyCol=596\">upped the estimate of the amount California will reap from the company going public\u003c/a>. The LAO puts the figure at $2.1 billion over the next 13 months if Governor Brown's tax plan passes in November. Without the higher tax rates, the amount falls to $1.6 billion. The governor's May budget revise assumed just $1.9 billion in Facebook revenue with the higher tax rates, and $1.4 billion under the current system. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The LAO calculated its totals by assuming a $38 IPO share price, rising to $45 in six months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Facebook today \u003ca href=\"http://news.yahoo.com/facebook-ipo-bring-cash-change-025946510.html\">raised its IPO price\u003c/a> to between $34 to $38 per share, up from $28 to $35. Shares start trading on the Nasdaq on Friday, under the ticker symbol \u003cdel datetime=\"2012-05-15T22:54:58+00:00\">ZUCK\u003c/del> (Ha ha; the symbol is FB.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The Facebook IPO is a really large set of financial transactions, and a large portion of the beneficiaries of those transactions live and work in California where Facebook is headquartered,\" Jason Sisney of the LAO's office told KQED's Peter Jon Shuler today. \"And so for the state of California that means these transactions will generate significant personal income tax revenues in the next few months. They will be a lot more if the share price climbs rapidly and stays there...and if more of those Facebook insiders are California taxpayers. We don't know for sure how many of them are, and we don't know for sure how many of them will undertake stock transactions related to the IPO. But we know enough from the filings to know the state revenue impact is going to be substantial. The key question is how big.\" \u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sisney said the most important factor determining the amount flowing into state coffers is what the share price is about six months from now, when a large volume of \u003ca href=\"https://scs.fidelity.com/webxpress/help/topics/learn_rsus.shtml\">restricted stock units\u003c/a> become exercisable. \"Those are likely to generate the bulk of the taxable income that would produce state revenues in the next year,\" Sisney said. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sisney also said that under certain scenarios, the state's take could be $1-2 billion dollars greater. \"If the share price were higher or if there were a lot more transactions by Californians than we guessed in this estimate,\" he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hmmm, sounds a little like a CNBC analyst, \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble\">circa 1999\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, the general public is not quite so Facebook bullish. \u003ca href=\"http://www.marketplace.org/topics/business/many-americans-view-facebook-fad\">Marketplace reports\u003c/a>...\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe src=\"http://www.marketplace.org/node/54342/player/storyplayer\" width=\"650\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Update 4:15 p.m\u003c/strong>: \u003ca href=\"http://www.marketplace.org/topics/business/facebook-gets-pricier-some-pros-skip-ipo\">And some stock pros as well\u003c/a>...\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe src=\"http://www.marketplace.org/node/54355/player/storyplayer\" width=\"650\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":null,"status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1337123938,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":13,"wordCount":422},"headData":{"title":"LAO's Target Price for Facebook: $45 per Share | KQED","description":"Speaking of the Big Facebook Bang, the California Legislative Analyst's Office upped the estimate of the amount California will reap from the company going public. The LAO puts the figure at $2.1 billion over the next 13 months if Governor Brown's tax plan passes in November. Without the higher tax rates, the amount falls to","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"65372 http://ww2.kqed.org/news/?p=65372","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/2012/05/15/laos-target-price-for-facebook-45-per-share/","disqusTitle":"LAO's Target Price for Facebook: $45 per Share","path":"/news/65372/laos-target-price-for-facebook-45-per-share","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo1.jpg\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2012/05/facebook-logo1-300x112.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"facebook-logo\" width=\"300\" height=\"112\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-65381\">\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://www.google.com/search?q=facebook+ipo\">Speaking of the Big Facebook Bang\u003c/a>, the California Legislative Analyst's Office \u003ca href=\"http://www.lao.ca.gov/laoapp/budgetlist/PublicSearch.aspx?Yr=2012&KeyCol=596\">upped the estimate of the amount California will reap from the company going public\u003c/a>. The LAO puts the figure at $2.1 billion over the next 13 months if Governor Brown's tax plan passes in November. Without the higher tax rates, the amount falls to $1.6 billion. The governor's May budget revise assumed just $1.9 billion in Facebook revenue with the higher tax rates, and $1.4 billion under the current system. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The LAO calculated its totals by assuming a $38 IPO share price, rising to $45 in six months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Facebook today \u003ca href=\"http://news.yahoo.com/facebook-ipo-bring-cash-change-025946510.html\">raised its IPO price\u003c/a> to between $34 to $38 per share, up from $28 to $35. Shares start trading on the Nasdaq on Friday, under the ticker symbol \u003cdel datetime=\"2012-05-15T22:54:58+00:00\">ZUCK\u003c/del> (Ha ha; the symbol is FB.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"The Facebook IPO is a really large set of financial transactions, and a large portion of the beneficiaries of those transactions live and work in California where Facebook is headquartered,\" Jason Sisney of the LAO's office told KQED's Peter Jon Shuler today. \"And so for the state of California that means these transactions will generate significant personal income tax revenues in the next few months. They will be a lot more if the share price climbs rapidly and stays there...and if more of those Facebook insiders are California taxpayers. We don't know for sure how many of them are, and we don't know for sure how many of them will undertake stock transactions related to the IPO. But we know enough from the filings to know the state revenue impact is going to be substantial. The key question is how big.\" \u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sisney said the most important factor determining the amount flowing into state coffers is what the share price is about six months from now, when a large volume of \u003ca href=\"https://scs.fidelity.com/webxpress/help/topics/learn_rsus.shtml\">restricted stock units\u003c/a> become exercisable. \"Those are likely to generate the bulk of the taxable income that would produce state revenues in the next year,\" Sisney said. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sisney also said that under certain scenarios, the state's take could be $1-2 billion dollars greater. \"If the share price were higher or if there were a lot more transactions by Californians than we guessed in this estimate,\" he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hmmm, sounds a little like a CNBC analyst, \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble\">circa 1999\u003c/a>. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, the general public is not quite so Facebook bullish. \u003ca href=\"http://www.marketplace.org/topics/business/many-americans-view-facebook-fad\">Marketplace reports\u003c/a>...\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe src=\"http://www.marketplace.org/node/54342/player/storyplayer\" width=\"650\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Update 4:15 p.m\u003c/strong>: \u003ca href=\"http://www.marketplace.org/topics/business/facebook-gets-pricier-some-pros-skip-ipo\">And some stock pros as well\u003c/a>...\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe src=\"http://www.marketplace.org/node/54355/player/storyplayer\" width=\"650\" height=\"200\" scrolling=\"no\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/news/65372/laos-target-price-for-facebook-45-per-share","authors":["80"],"programs":["news_6944"],"categories":["news_1758","news_248"],"tags":["news_249","news_2526","news_71"],"label":"news_6944"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. 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You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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