Original post, Wednesday, Oct. 18: Last October -- almost exactly a year ago, in fact -- the Bay Area got its first rain of the season. The farthest reaches of the North Bay, especially, got a good soaking from a storm that had started out on the other side of the Pacific as a typhoon.
The rain signaled the end of the 2016 fire season in that part of the state.
Forecasters say we'll see our first autumn rain later this week. Weather models project a rather modest storm, sweeping down from the Gulf of Alaska. The wettest Bay Area locations, again in the far North Bay, are expected to get maybe a third of an inch of precipitation. Less is forecast as you go south, with areas in the South Bay forecast to receive just a few hundredths of an inch.
But context is everything. Last year, we were just hoping that we'd see something like a normal, rainy winter. (We got our wish and then some.)
This year, we're looking forward to the rain, even if it's just an anemic little storm, to help douse the catastrophic fires that have overrun huge swaths of the North Bay.
Will the expected storm be useful in helping tamp down the fires? Does it signal an end to the fire season?
The answer to the first question: A little, perhaps, but not too much. To the second: Definitely not.
Craig Clements, an assistant professor of meteorology at San Jose State and director of the school's Fire Weather Research Laboratory, said in an interview with KQED's Craig Miller this week that the rain's impact depends on the kinds of fuels -- or vegetation -- involved.
Clements said the grasses so common in California's hills are known as "one-hour fuels," meaning they respond nearly immediately to moisture or to heating and drying.
"It can rain, and then in an hour, they can burn again," Clements said.
The brush and bushes that thrive in California's long rainless season are dry after nearly six months with little moisture, and they take longer to respond to rains, Clements said.
"The shrubs take about 25 days for the rain in the soil to get to the stems and such," Clements said.
Bottom line, though, even this minor episode of wet weather will aid firefighters in the North Bay.
"This may not shut down everything immediately, but it will definitely help the fires burning currently," he said.
After the rain, forecasters say we'll see a return to warm, sunny weather, with highs reaching the mid-80s in the North Bay by Tuesday. Temperatures will be even hotter in Southern California, which is also famously vulnerable to autumn severe fire weather.
So when will we see the end of fire season? It's still anyone's guess.
