Poll: Newsom's Lead Over Villaraigosa Shrinks in 2018 Governor's Race

One year before voters head to the polls in California's open primary for governor, a new survey finds Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa have staked out an early lead over a field of announced challengers.

A poll released Thursday by the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies finds Newsom leading fellow Democrat Villaraigosa among likely voters, 22 percent to 17 percent. The same poll found the former San Francisco mayor holding a 28 percent to 11 percent lead over Villaraigosa back in March.

Coming in behind the former mayors are a pair of relatively unknown Republicans: San Diego businessman John Cox and former Torrance Assemblyman David Hadley, each with less than 10 percent of respondents. Democratic state Treasurer John Chiang polled a distant fifth with 5 percent.

Contours Forming Among Democrats

The survey outlines what could become a battle between the liberal and more moderate flanks of the Democratic Party. Newsom holds a strong advantage (60 to 13 percent) in the survey among those voters identifying themselves as "strongly liberal." Newsom has driven his candidacy leftward, advocating for free community college and a single-payer health care system, the latter of which has energized the Democratic base.

By comparison, Villaraigosa has taken on the mantle of fiscal stewardship advocated by current Gov. Jerry Brown. He has labeled plans for single-payer health care "snake oil" without accompanying plans to raise revenue and the necessary blessing of the federal government. Villaraigosa has also maintained that only low-income students should have free access to community college.

Likely voters describing their ideology as "middle-of-the-road" still favored Newsom by 2 points, but "No Party Preference" voters swung to Villaraigosa by a 16 to 12 percent margin.

Field Not Set 

With still a full year left before votes are cast, time remains for late entries into the governor's race, and few believe the field is set.

Late challengers could be encouraged by the poll's finding that 37 percent of likely voters are undecided on their choice. That includes 45 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of No Party Preference voters, leaving a natural constituency for one of the few high-profile Republicans in the state. San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer would seem to fit the bill, but has downplayed interest in running.

Under California's primary system, the top two finishers regardless of party face off in November.

On the Democratic side, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti could upset the apple cart if he decided to run. He would immediately challenge Villaraigosa for supremacy among Southern California voters, and his progressive credentials are more comparable to Newsom.

Garcetti has used the old "I love the job I have" line when asked about his future ambitions. But he also told KQED recently, "I've always made those decisions (about running) very late compared to others ... because for me it's 'what's the truth of the moment?' "

Also scrambling political calculations: the fact that Sen. Dianne Feinstein has yet to formally announce she's running for re-election next year. That has several Democrats, including Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), termed-out Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León, venture capitalist Tom Steyer and presumably others keeping their options open.