Whether it's an overcount or undercount, the concern is that political representation and federal funding will not be fairly shared after the 2020 census. The new population numbers will determine how many congressional seats and Electoral College votes each state gets, as well as guide the distribution of around $880 billion a year in federal tax dollars for schools, roads and other public services.
"When it comes time to allocate resources," says Robert Santos, the Urban Institute's vice president and chief methodologist, about the consequences of an inaccurate census, "you end up with an incorrect vision of where the population is and where the funding should go."
Despite their report's dire warning about potential undercounts, the Urban Institute's researchers emphasize there is still an opportunity to overcome these challenges by driving up public interest and participation in next year's count.
"This is by no means a critique of the Census Bureau," says Elliott, who once worked at the bureau as a demographer. "The Census Bureau is increasingly asked to do more with less, and as we see, it's more and more of a challenge to count the nation's population with every passing decade."
The institute provided the bureau an advance copy of the report before its release. In a written statement, spokesman Michael Cook said the bureau is "laser focused" on working with national organizations and local community groups to help promote the census.
"We hope that the known challenges encourage individuals across the country to apply for 2020 Census jobs and partner with us to help ensure an accurate count," Cook said.
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