{"id":22955,"date":"2012-07-10T11:51:34","date_gmt":"2012-07-10T18:51:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.kqed.org\/climatewatch\/?p=22955"},"modified":"2018-02-01T22:40:49","modified_gmt":"2018-02-01T22:40:49","slug":"after-two-years-of-la-nina-el-nino-may-be-on-the-way","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ww2.kqed.org\/climatewatch\/2012\/07\/10\/after-two-years-of-la-nina-el-nino-may-be-on-the-way\/","title":{"rendered":"After Two Years of La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o May Be on the Way"},"content":{"rendered":"

The climate pattern usually<\/strong> causes wetter weather in California
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>By Andrew Freedman<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"
In 2010, a series of strong storms linked to El Ni\u00f1o caused major flooding in Southern California.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

If you thought the first six months of the year were chock full of weird weather events, just wait \u2014 according to climate scientists there is an increasing likelihood that El Ni\u00f1o conditions<\/a> will soon develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Ni\u00f1o events, which are characterized by an area of unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, can have a huge influence on global weather patterns. Its effects on the U.S. tend to peak during the winter.<\/p>\n

The U.S. has already had a record warm January-to-June period, and has already had two extremely rare heat waves this year, one in March and the other in mid-June to early July. Entering mid-summer, drought conditions are covering 56 percent of the lower 48 states, a record drought extent in the 21st century.<\/p>\n

Depending where you’re located, the prospect of a new El Ni\u00f1o event may be good news. The drought-parched Texas Panhandle, for example, tends to be wetter during El Ni\u00f1o years. It could also be decidedly unwelcome news \u2014 just ask residents of California who dealt with El Ni\u00f1o-related flooding in 2010.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a natural source of climate variability, and typically occurs every three to seven years. The question of whether manmade global warming will influence El Ni\u00f1o cycles is an area of active research. One recent study does suggest, though, that global warming could intensify<\/a> the effects of an El Ni\u00f1o episode, even if it doesn’t influence its occurrence.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
During El Ni\u00f1o, the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Citing factors such as warming ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, the Climate Prediction Center<\/a>, which is part of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a>\u00a0(NOAA), said on July 5 that there is a better than 50 percent chance that El Ni\u00f1o conditions will develop sometime between July and September.<\/p>\n

Because of El Ni\u00f1o’s effects on seasonal climate conditions, farmers and ranchers, ski area operators, water planners, hurricane forecasters, and many more closely monitor such El Ni\u00f1o forecasts.<\/p>\n

Tony Barnston, chief forecaster for the International Research Institute for Climate and Society<\/a>, which works with the Climate Prediction Center, said an El Ni\u00f1o event could help relieve the ongoing drought conditions in some areas, but potentially worsen the drought for others.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe southern tier of U.S. states tends to have above-normal precipitation during winter when there is an El Ni\u00f1o. So this would be helpful for the droughts currently lingering in Texas\/New Mexico, and Georgia\/Alabama,\u201d he said in an email conversation. \u201cIt would not help the ones in Kentucky\/Indiana though, and could cause a new one in the northern Rockies.\u201d<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o events can also help boost global average surface temperatures. A strong El Ni\u00f1o event led to the record warm year of 1998, and some climate scientists, including NASA\u2019s James Hansen, have pointed out that a new El Ni\u00f1o event would likely lead to another record warm year given the combination of El Ni\u00f1o and manmade global warming.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Sea surface temperature index in the tropical Pacific Ocean, showing the cycle of El Ni\u00f1o events (warmer than average) and La Ni\u00f1a events (cooler than average).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A strong, two-year La Ni\u00f1a event, which was characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, dissipated in April of this year, and it held down global average temperatures somewhat.<\/p>\n

This El Ni\u00f1o event, if it does occur, is more likely to be on the weak-to-moderate end of the spectrum, according to Barnston.<\/p>\n

One of the key indicators that El Ni\u00f1o conditions are developing is a growing area of warmer-than-average equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, and an increase in the oceanic heat content as well. \u201cThe observations . . . reflect a likely progression towards El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d the Climate Prediction Center said.<\/p>\n

Forecasters use computer models to help anticipate El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a events. Right now, most of the simulations of air and sea conditions show a developing El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>.<\/p>\n

According to Barnston, who is a veteran researcher and forecaster of El Ni\u00f1o events, there are many unknowns that forecasters are currently facing. \u201cWe don’t know, first, whether there will be an El Ni\u00f1o or not. Currently we think there is about a 60-70 percent chance for one, and a 30-40 percent [chance] of not having one,\u201d he said. \u201cIf we do get one, we don’t know how strong it would be. We doubt it will be a giant one like 1997-98 because those usually develop by May or even earlier. But it could be moderate or weak. Most of us think it is likely to be in either of those two categories, and think that it would last from about August through January.\u201d<\/p>\n

The development of an El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a event depends on feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere, and Barnston said that currently the prevailing weather pattern in the tropical Pacific is not particularly conducive to El Ni\u00f1o formation, despite the warming sea surface temperatures, but this could change.\u00a0\u201cWe’re in a transition stage,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe development of El Ni\u00f1o depends greatly on what happens in the coming two months. If we do not get at least some development by the end of August, then the chances of getting development later become much lower.\u201d<\/p>\n

A version of this post also appears at\u00a0<\/em>Climate Central<\/a>, <\/em>Climate Watch’s content partner.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The climate pattern usually causes wetter weather in California<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11421,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,7],"tags":[184,669],"coauthors":[],"series":[],"affiliates":[],"programs":[],"collections":[],"interests":[],"class_list":["post-22955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-thescience","category-water","tag-el-nino","tag-weather"],"acf":{"template_type":"standard","featured_image_type":"standard","is_audio_post":false},"yoast_head":"\nAfter Two Years of La Ni\u00f1a, El Ni\u00f1o May Be on the Way | Climate Watch<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ww2.kqed.org\/climatewatch\/2012\/07\/10\/after-two-years-of-la-nina-el-nino-may-be-on-the-way\/\" 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