{"id":15814,"date":"2011-10-12T14:26:17","date_gmt":"2011-10-12T21:26:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.kqed.org\/climatewatch\/?p=15814"},"modified":"2018-02-02T00:07:25","modified_gmt":"2018-02-02T00:07:25","slug":"global-warming-may-worsen-effects-of-el-nino-la-nina-events","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ww2.kqed.org\/climatewatch\/2011\/10\/12\/global-warming-may-worsen-effects-of-el-nino-la-nina-events\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Warming May Worsen Effects of El Ni\u00f1o, La Ni\u00f1a Events"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Precipitation outlook for winter 2011-12, showing the likelihood of below average precipitation in Texas and other drought-stricken states.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Does this mean Texas is toast?<\/strong><\/p>\n

By Michael D. Lemonick<\/a><\/p>\n

As most Californians know, El Ni\u00f1o is a periodic unusual warming of the surface water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. Actually, that\u2019s pretty much a lie. Most people don\u2019t know the definition of El Ni\u00f1o or its mirror image, La Ni\u00f1a, and truthfully, most people don\u2019t much care.<\/p>\n

What you do care about if you\u2019re a Texan suffering through the worst one-year drought on record, or a New Yorker who had to dig out from massive snowstorms last winter (tied in part to La Ni\u00f1a), or a Californian who has ever had to deal with the torrential rains that trigger catastrophic mudslides (linked to El Ni\u00f1o), is that these natural climate cycles can elevate the odds of natural disasters where you live. <\/p>\n

At the moment, we\u2019re now entering the second year of the La Ni\u00f1a part of the cycle. La Ni\u00f1a is\u00a0one key reason why the Southwest was so dry last winter and through the spring and summer, and since La Ni\u00f1a is projected to continue through the coming winter<\/a>, Texas and nearby states aren\u2019t likely to get much relief.<\/p>\n

But Ni\u00f1as and Ni\u00f1os (the broader cycle, for you weather\/climate geeks, is known as the “El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation,” or “ENSO”)\u00a0don\u2019t just operate in isolation. They\u2019re part of the broader climate system, which means that climate change could theoretically change how they operate \u2014 make them develop more frequently, for example, or less frequently, or be more or less pronounced. Climate change could\u00a0also intensify the effects of El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a events.<\/p>\n

Climate scientists have been wrestling with the first question for a while now, and they still don\u2019t really have a definitive answer. Some climate models have suggested that global warming has already begun to cause subtle changes in ENSO cycles, and that the changes will become more pronounced later this century. But a new study, published in the Journal of Climate<\/em>, doesn\u2019t find much evidence for that.<\/p>\n

But on the second question, the new study is a lot more definitive. \u201cDue to a warmer and moister atmosphere,\u201d said co-author Baylor Fox-Kemper<\/a>, of the University of Colorado in a press release, \u201cthe impacts of El Ni\u00f1o are changing even though El Ni\u00f1o itself doesn\u2019t change.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s because global warming has begun to change the playing field on which El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a operate, just as it’s changing the background conditions that give rise to our everyday weather. The Texas drought is a prime example. It\u2019s most likely cause is reduced rainfall from La Ni\u00f1a-related weather patterns. But however dry Texas and Oklahoma might have been otherwise, the killer heat wave<\/a> that plagued the region this past summer \u2014 the sort of heat wave global warming is already making more commonplace \u2014 baked much of the remaining moisture out of both the soil and vegetation. No wonder large parts of the Lone Star State have gone up in smoke<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"
A map of sea surface temperature anomalies, showing a swath of cooler than average waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean – a telltale sign La Ni\u00f1a conditions.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

When the next El Ni\u00f1o occurs in a year or two, it will probably bring heavy rains to places like Southern California, whose unstable hillsides tend to slide when soggy. Except now, thanks to global warming, the typical El Ni\u00f1o-related\u00a0storms that roll in off the Pacific may well be turbocharged, since a warmer atmosphere can hold more water. This is the reason, say many climate scientists, that downpours have become heavier in recent decades across broad geographical areas.<\/p>\n

La Ni\u00f1a, plus the added\u00a0moisture in the air from global warming, have also been partially implicated in the massive snowstorms that struck the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states during the last two winters. Those could get worse as well, suggests the new analysis. \u201cWhat we see,” says Fox-Kemper, “is that certain atmospheric patterns, such as the blocking high pressure south of Alaska typical of La Ni\u00f1a winters, strengthen…so, the cooling of North America expected in a La Ni\u00f1a winter would be stronger in future climates.\u201d So to pre-answer the question that will inevitably be asked next winter: no, more snow does NOT contradict the idea that the planet is warming. Quite the contrary.<\/p>\n

Finally, for those who really do want to know what El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a actually are, as opposed to what they do, you can go to NOAA’s El Ni\u00f1o page<\/a>.\u00a0But be warned: there will be a quiz, and the word “thermocline<\/a>” will appear.<\/p>\n

A version of this post also appears at <\/em>Climate Central<\/a>, a content partner of <\/em>Climate Watch.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As just about everyone knows, El Ni\u00f1o is a periodic unusual warming of the surface water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. Actually, that\u2019s pretty much a lie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11421,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[184,320,669],"coauthors":[],"series":[],"affiliates":[],"programs":[],"collections":[],"interests":[],"class_list":["post-15814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-thescience","tag-el-nino","tag-la-nina","tag-weather"],"acf":{"template_type":"standard","featured_image_type":"standard","is_audio_post":false},"yoast_head":"\nGlobal Warming May Worsen Effects of El Ni\u00f1o, La Ni\u00f1a Events | Climate Watch<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/ww2.kqed.org\/climatewatch\/2011\/10\/12\/global-warming-may-worsen-effects-of-el-nino-la-nina-events\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Warming May Worsen Effects of El Ni\u00f1o, La Ni\u00f1a Events | Climate Watch\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As just about everyone knows, El Ni\u00f1o is a periodic unusual warming of the surface water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. 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