Berkeley's Soda Tax Appears to Cut Consumption of Sugary Drinks
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the UC Berkeley's School of Public Health, calls a \"perfect natural experiment.\" In the fall of 2014, voters in Berkeley and San Francisco voted on proposals to tax sugar-sweetened drinks at the rate of one cent per fluid ounce.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The proposals were aimed at reducing consumption of these drinks, which are blamed for increasing rates of obesity and Type 2 diabetes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before the votes, Madsen and a small army of collaborators began laying the groundwork for efforts to measure whether such a tax would actually work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They targeted low-income neighborhoods of each city, as well as Oakland, and carried out surveys of people they met on the street. \"We asked how often they drank various beverages,\" Madsen says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They recorded the answer and waited for the vote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The tax did not pass in San Francisco. But it did in Berkeley. So sugary drinks became more expensive in Berkeley, but not in San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Madsen and her collaborators then returned to the same neighborhoods, with the same questions. \"I would say, 'How often do you drink regular soda, like a Coke, or Sprite? Once a week? Once a month?' And some people would just say, 'Well, I drink it every day.' And what we were trying to do was get some way of making everybody equal, so that everybody could be expressed as times per day that they drank soda.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before the vote, the answers had been very similar in both cities. The average person drank about 1.25 sugary beverages per day.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After the vote, those responses diverged. In San Francisco, where there was no tax, people said that they were drinking slightly more sugary beverages. (It was a hot summer.) In Berkeley, though, reported consumption of sugar-sweetened drinks went down by 20 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>People in Berkeley reported a huge increase in their water consumption. Water consumption increased in San Francisco as well, but not by as much.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Madsen says a 20 percent reduction in consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages would be enough to reduce rates of obesity and Type 2 diabetes in years to come. \"This would have a huge public health impact if it were sustained,\" she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She is not sure it will be sustained. People may be more inclined to react to such a tax when it is new.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.human.cornell.edu/bio.cfm?netid=jhc38\">John Cawley\u003c/a>, a professor of public policy and economics at Cornell University, says that a 20 percent drop is more than economists would have predicted, since the tax caused prices of sugary drinks to go up only modestly. \u003ca href=\"http://www.nber.org/papers/w21465\">Cawley\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.2015.302881\">others\u003c/a> found that soda sellers did not pass the full cost of the tax on to consumers, but absorbed somewhere between 30 and 50 percent of the cost themselves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is a big decrease\" in consumption, Cawley says. \"It makes complete sense that, when prices go up, people buy less. That's the law of demand. So I did expect to see some kind of decrease in consumption, but this is a very large decrease.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cawley noted that there is a relatively large margin of error in the estimates of beverage consumption. \"It will be interesting, as more information comes in, whether this finding holds up.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This isn't the final answer,\" says \u003ca href=\"http://publichealth.gwu.edu/departments/prevention-and-community-health/michael-long\">Michael Long\u003c/a>, a professor of public health at George Washington University, \"but it is consistent with what we know about how people respond to prices. This definitely adds a lot of information about reductions in reported consumption, and we'll have to look further to see if we're seeing reductions in sales data.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The American Beverage Association, which represents the soda industry, says that its member companies don't provide detailed data on sales trends within particular cities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.capitolmatrixconsulting.com/team_williams.html\">Brad Williams\u003c/a>, an economist with Capitol Matrix Consulting in Sacramento, who has been a consultant for the beverage industry, told \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/\" target=\"_blank\">The Salt\u003c/a> that the successful pro-soda tax campaign in 2014, rather than the tax itself, may have led people to report that they were drinking less soda. \"There's a limited price differential between sugar-sweetened and non-sugar-sweetened beverages, especially in chain stores,\" he says. \"It's not like consumers are getting price signals, so to the extent that consumption was reduced, it was the result of the campaign\" against sugary drinks rather than the tax, he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new study was published this week in the \u003cem>\u003ca href=\"http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2016.303362\" target=\"_blank\">American Journal of Public Health\u003c/a>.\u003c/em> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"According to a new study, the nation's first soda tax succeeded in cutting consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. But there's uncertainty about whether the effect will be permanent.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1475172398,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":24,"wordCount":800},"headData":{"title":"Berkeley's Soda Tax Appears to Cut Consumption of Sugary Drinks | KQED","description":"According to a new study, the nation's first soda tax succeeded in cutting consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. But there's uncertainty about whether the effect will be permanent.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Berkeley's Soda Tax Appears to Cut Consumption of Sugary Drinks","datePublished":"2016-08-24T17:52:07.000Z","dateModified":"2016-09-29T18:06:38.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"228630 http://ww2.kqed.org/stateofhealth/?p=228630","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/stateofhealth/2016/08/24/berkeleys-soda-tax-appears-to-cut-consumption-of-sugary-drinks/","disqusTitle":"Berkeley's Soda Tax Appears to Cut Consumption of Sugary Drinks","nprImageCredit":"Robert Galbraith","nprByline":"\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/people/143160021/daniel-charles\">Dan Charles\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/\">NPR\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>","nprImageAgency":"Reuters","nprStoryId":"491104093","nprApiLink":"http://api.npr.org/query?id=491104093&apiKey=MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004","nprHtmlLink":"http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2016/08/23/491104093/berkeleys-soda-tax-appears-to-cut-consumption-of-sugary-drinks?ft=nprml&f=491104093","nprRetrievedStory":"1","nprPubDate":"Wed, 24 Aug 2016 11:33:00 -0400","nprStoryDate":"Tue, 23 Aug 2016 19:49:00 -0400","nprLastModifiedDate":"Wed, 24 Aug 2016 11:33:32 -0400","nprAudio":"https://ondemand.npr.org/anon.npr-mp3/npr/atc/2016/08/20160823_atc_soda_tax_drives_down_sales_in_berkeley_calif.mp3?orgId=1&topicId=1053&d=149&p=2&story=491104093&t=progseg&e=491014243&seg=2&ft=nprml&f=491104093","nprAudioM3u":"http://api.npr.org/m3u/1491125302-e1a508.m3u?orgId=1&topicId=1053&d=149&p=2&story=491104093&t=progseg&e=491014243&seg=2&ft=nprml&f=491104093","path":"/stateofhealth/228630/berkeleys-soda-tax-appears-to-cut-consumption-of-sugary-drinks","audioUrl":"https://ondemand.npr.org/anon.npr-mp3/npr/atc/2016/08/20160823_atc_soda_tax_drives_down_sales_in_berkeley_calif.mp3?orgId=1&topicId=1053&d=149&p=2&story=491104093&t=progseg&e=491014243&seg=2&ft=nprml&f=491104093","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The nation's first \"soda tax\" on sugar-sweetened beverages, which went into effect in Berkeley last year, appears to be working.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to a new \u003ca href=\"http://news.berkeley.edu/2016/08/23/sodadrinking/\">study\u003c/a>, consumption of sugary drinks -- at least in some neighborhoods -- is down by a whopping 20 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That estimate results from what \u003ca href=\"http://sph.berkeley.edu/kristine-madsen\">Kristine Madsen\u003c/a>, a researcher at the UC Berkeley's School of Public Health, calls a \"perfect natural experiment.\" In the fall of 2014, voters in Berkeley and San Francisco voted on proposals to tax sugar-sweetened drinks at the rate of one cent per fluid ounce.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The proposals were aimed at reducing consumption of these drinks, which are blamed for increasing rates of obesity and Type 2 diabetes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before the votes, Madsen and a small army of collaborators began laying the groundwork for efforts to measure whether such a tax would actually work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They targeted low-income neighborhoods of each city, as well as Oakland, and carried out surveys of people they met on the street. \"We asked how often they drank various beverages,\" Madsen says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They recorded the answer and waited for the vote.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The tax did not pass in San Francisco. But it did in Berkeley. So sugary drinks became more expensive in Berkeley, but not in San Francisco.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Madsen and her collaborators then returned to the same neighborhoods, with the same questions. \"I would say, 'How often do you drink regular soda, like a Coke, or Sprite? Once a week? Once a month?' And some people would just say, 'Well, I drink it every day.' And what we were trying to do was get some way of making everybody equal, so that everybody could be expressed as times per day that they drank soda.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Before the vote, the answers had been very similar in both cities. The average person drank about 1.25 sugary beverages per day.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After the vote, those responses diverged. In San Francisco, where there was no tax, people said that they were drinking slightly more sugary beverages. (It was a hot summer.) In Berkeley, though, reported consumption of sugar-sweetened drinks went down by 20 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>People in Berkeley reported a huge increase in their water consumption. Water consumption increased in San Francisco as well, but not by as much.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Madsen says a 20 percent reduction in consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages would be enough to reduce rates of obesity and Type 2 diabetes in years to come. \"This would have a huge public health impact if it were sustained,\" she says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She is not sure it will be sustained. People may be more inclined to react to such a tax when it is new.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.human.cornell.edu/bio.cfm?netid=jhc38\">John Cawley\u003c/a>, a professor of public policy and economics at Cornell University, says that a 20 percent drop is more than economists would have predicted, since the tax caused prices of sugary drinks to go up only modestly. \u003ca href=\"http://www.nber.org/papers/w21465\">Cawley\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.2015.302881\">others\u003c/a> found that soda sellers did not pass the full cost of the tax on to consumers, but absorbed somewhere between 30 and 50 percent of the cost themselves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This is a big decrease\" in consumption, Cawley says. \"It makes complete sense that, when prices go up, people buy less. That's the law of demand. So I did expect to see some kind of decrease in consumption, but this is a very large decrease.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Cawley noted that there is a relatively large margin of error in the estimates of beverage consumption. \"It will be interesting, as more information comes in, whether this finding holds up.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\"This isn't the final answer,\" says \u003ca href=\"http://publichealth.gwu.edu/departments/prevention-and-community-health/michael-long\">Michael Long\u003c/a>, a professor of public health at George Washington University, \"but it is consistent with what we know about how people respond to prices. This definitely adds a lot of information about reductions in reported consumption, and we'll have to look further to see if we're seeing reductions in sales data.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The American Beverage Association, which represents the soda industry, says that its member companies don't provide detailed data on sales trends within particular cities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.capitolmatrixconsulting.com/team_williams.html\">Brad Williams\u003c/a>, an economist with Capitol Matrix Consulting in Sacramento, who has been a consultant for the beverage industry, told \u003ca href=\"http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/\" target=\"_blank\">The Salt\u003c/a> that the successful pro-soda tax campaign in 2014, rather than the tax itself, may have led people to report that they were drinking less soda. \"There's a limited price differential between sugar-sweetened and non-sugar-sweetened beverages, especially in chain stores,\" he says. \"It's not like consumers are getting price signals, so to the extent that consumption was reduced, it was the result of the campaign\" against sugary drinks rather than the tax, he says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new study was published this week in the \u003cem>\u003ca href=\"http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2105/AJPH.2016.303362\" target=\"_blank\">American Journal of Public Health\u003c/a>.\u003c/em> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Copyright 2016 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/stateofhealth/228630/berkeleys-soda-tax-appears-to-cut-consumption-of-sugary-drinks","authors":["byline_stateofhealth_228630"],"categories":["stateofhealth_11","stateofhealth_12","stateofhealth_2746"],"tags":["stateofhealth_2866","stateofhealth_2925","stateofhealth_2519","stateofhealth_75"],"featImg":"stateofhealth_20311","label":"stateofhealth"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. 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Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. As a non-partisan forum, The Club brings to the public airwaves diverse viewpoints on important topics. The Club's weekly radio broadcast - the oldest in the U.S., dating back to 1924 - is carried across the nation on public radio stations and is now podcasting. Our website archive features audio of our recent programs, as well as selected speeches from our long and distinguished history. This podcast feed is usually updated twice a week and is always un-edited.","airtime":"THU 10pm, FRI 1am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Commonwealth-Club-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.commonwealthclub.org/podcasts","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Commonwealth Club of California"},"link":"/radio/program/commonwealth-club","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/commonwealth-club-of-california-podcast/id976334034?mt=2","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5jb21tb253ZWFsdGhjbHViLm9yZy9hdWRpby9wb2RjYXN0L3dlZWtseS54bWw","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/Commonwealth-Club-of-California-p1060/"}},"considerthis":{"id":"considerthis","title":"Consider This","tagline":"Make sense of the day","info":"Make sense of the day. Every weekday afternoon, Consider This helps you consider the major stories of the day in less than 15 minutes, featuring the reporting and storytelling resources of NPR. Plus, KQED’s Bianca Taylor brings you the local KQED news you need to know.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Consider-This-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"Consider This from NPR and KQED","officialWebsiteLink":"/podcasts/considerthis","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"7"},"link":"/podcasts/considerthis","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1503226625?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/coronavirusdaily","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5ucHIub3JnLzUxMDM1NS9wb2RjYXN0LnhtbA","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3Z6JdCS2d0eFEpXHKI6WqH"}},"forum":{"id":"forum","title":"Forum","tagline":"The conversation starts here","info":"KQED’s live call-in program discussing local, state, national and international issues, as well as in-depth interviews.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9am-11am, 10pm-11pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Forum-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED Forum with Mina Kim and Alexis Madrigal","officialWebsiteLink":"/forum","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"8"},"link":"/forum","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/kqeds-forum/id73329719","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM5NTU3MzgxNjMz","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/432307980/forum","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqedfm-kqeds-forum-podcast","rss":"https://feeds.megaphone.fm/KQINC9557381633"}},"freakonomics-radio":{"id":"freakonomics-radio","title":"Freakonomics Radio","info":"Freakonomics Radio is a one-hour award-winning podcast and public-radio project hosted by Stephen Dubner, with co-author Steve Levitt as a regular guest. 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You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Mindshift-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED MindShift: How We Will Learn","officialWebsiteLink":"/mindshift/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"2"},"link":"/podcasts/mindshift","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mindshift-podcast/id1078765985","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/464615685/mind-shift-podcast","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/stories-teachers-share","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/0MxSpNYZKNprFLCl7eEtyx"}},"morning-edition":{"id":"morning-edition","title":"Morning Edition","info":"\u003cem>Morning Edition\u003c/em> takes listeners around the country and the world with multi-faceted stories and commentaries every weekday. Hosts Steve Inskeep, David Greene and Rachel Martin bring you the latest breaking news and features to prepare you for the day.","airtime":"MON-FRI 3am-9am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Morning-Edition-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.npr.org/programs/morning-edition/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/morning-edition"},"onourwatch":{"id":"onourwatch","title":"On Our Watch","tagline":"Police secrets, unsealed","info":"For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. 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