California 'That Much Closer' to Cellphone Earthquake Warnings After Oakland Test
Slow, Steady Quakes May Increase Risk Along San Andreas
Looks Like Another Dead End for Earthquake Prediction
There Are Earthquakes on Mars! Wait ... They're 'Marsquakes'
Earthquake Science at the Threshold: 1906 Was a Game Changer
South Napa Quake Offers Key Test for Real-Time GPS Detection
California's Earthquake Early Warning System Is Ready to Get Started
New-Generation Earthquake Forecasting Swings into Operation in Italy
California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us'
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The app shows a regional map, a quick magnitude determination (5.7), the level of expected shaking (IV) on the \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/quakemags/a/Mercalli-Earthquake-Intensity-Scale.htm\">Mercalli intensity scale\u003c/a>, and the front edge of the fast P-waves (yellow) and the slower, more dangerous S-waves (red) from the earthquake (Richard Allen/ShakeAlert)","credit":null,"description":null,"imgSizes":{"kqedFullSize":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/NapaEQ-ShakeAlert.png","width":640,"height":360}},"fetchFailed":false,"isLoading":false},"science_20767":{"type":"attachments","id":"science_20767","meta":{"index":"attachments_1591205162","site":"science","id":"20767","found":true},"title":"LAquila-EQ-Bugnara_Castle","publishDate":1408647193,"status":"inherit","parent":20765,"modified":1408647193,"caption":"The 12th-century Palazzo Ducale in Bugnara, Italy, suffered roof damage in the L'Aquila earthquake of 2009 (Susan Cardwell/Wikimedia \u003ca href=\"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/it/deed.en\">CC\u003c/a>)","credit":null,"description":null,"imgSizes":{"kqedFullSize":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/LAquila-EQ-Bugnara_Castle.jpg","width":640,"height":360}},"fetchFailed":false,"isLoading":false},"science_15346":{"type":"attachments","id":"science_15346","meta":{"index":"attachments_1591205162","site":"science","id":"15346","found":true},"title":"deg00013","publishDate":1394755616,"status":"inherit","parent":15325,"modified":1394755616,"caption":"The 1906 earthquake (USGS)","credit":null,"description":null,"imgSizes":{"kqedFullSize":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/deg00013.jpg","width":640,"height":360}},"fetchFailed":false,"isLoading":false}},"audioPlayerReducer":{"postId":"stream_live"},"authorsReducer":{"cmiller":{"type":"authors","id":"221","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"221","found":true},"name":"Craig Miller","firstName":"Craig","lastName":"Miller","slug":"cmiller","email":"craig@voxterra.net","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":["science"],"title":"Editor Emeritus, Science","bio":"Craig is a former KQED Science editor, specializing in weather, climate, water & energy issues, with a little seismology thrown in just to shake things up. 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He has \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/\">written on geology for About.com\u003c/a> since its founding in 1997. In 2007, he started the Oakland Geology blog, which won recognition as \"Best of the East Bay\" from the \u003ci>East Bay Express\u003c/i> in 2010. In writing about geology in the Bay Area and surroundings, he hopes to share some of the useful and pleasurable insights that geologists give us—not just facts about the deep past, but an attitude that might be called the \u003ci>deep present\u003c/i>.\r\n\r\nRead his \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/author/andrew-alden/\">previous contributions\u003c/a> to \u003ca href=\"http://http://science.kqed.org/quest/\">QUEST\u003c/a>, a project dedicated to exploring the Science of Sustainability.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"science","roles":["author"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Andrew Alden | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/andrew-alden"},"dventon":{"type":"authors","id":"11088","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"11088","found":true},"name":"Danielle Venton","firstName":"Danielle","lastName":"Venton","slug":"dventon","email":"dventon@kqed.org","display_author_email":true,"staff_mastheads":["science"],"title":"Science reporter","bio":"Danielle Venton is a reporter for KQED Science. 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She lives in Sonoma County and enjoys backpacking.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/ebaf11ee6cfb7bb40329a143d463829e?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":"DanielleVenton","facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"arts","roles":["contributor"]},{"site":"news","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"futureofyou","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]}],"headData":{"title":"Danielle Venton | KQED","description":"Science reporter","ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/ebaf11ee6cfb7bb40329a143d463829e?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/ebaf11ee6cfb7bb40329a143d463829e?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/dventon"},"aahmed":{"type":"authors","id":"11428","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"11428","found":true},"name":"Amel Ahmed","firstName":"Amel","lastName":"Ahmed","slug":"aahmed","email":"aahmed@kqed.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Amel Ahmed is a reporter for KQED. 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She is a 2013 graduate of Brooklyn Law School and is currently researching war on terror prosecutions for an upcoming book.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/c8b48ebc98e770640f3013c470d23f3e?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":"amelscript","facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"futureofyou","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]}],"headData":{"title":"Amel Ahmed | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/c8b48ebc98e770640f3013c470d23f3e?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/c8b48ebc98e770640f3013c470d23f3e?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/aahmed"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"news","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"science_1939628":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1939628","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1939628","score":null,"sort":[1553738459000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"california-that-much-closer-to-cell-phone-earthquake-warnings-after-oakland-test","title":"California 'That Much Closer' to Cellphone Earthquake Warnings After Oakland Test","publishDate":1553738459,"format":"standard","headTitle":"California ‘That Much Closer’ to Cellphone Earthquake Warnings After Oakland Test | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Scientists and disaster-response officials say they’re encouraged after their first attempt to push out an alert from the state’s newly-developed earthquake warning system to cellphones, over the same network used for Amber Alerts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State emergency services staff and scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey triggered the local test at 11 a.m. on Wednesday. About 4 seconds later, an array of cellphones laid out in the downtown Oakland test center started lighting up and sounding off with a symphony of the \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHiqVHeSDvo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">familiar tones\u003c/a> usually associated with \u003ca href=\"https://www.amberalert.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Amber Alerts\u003c/a>. This time, though, the subsequent text message advised users that this was only a test and no action was required. For the experiment, phones of various make, model and vintage were arrayed at the command center, going back to the flip-phone era. Most appeared to respond, though with varying time lags. Officials seemed pleased with the early returns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1939636\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/03/Array_1908.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1939636 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/03/Array_1908.jpeg\" alt=\"Photo: phone array\" width=\"600\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/03/Array_1908.jpeg 600w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/03/Array_1908-160x213.jpeg 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Coordinators line up different cellphones to see how they respond to a test for earthquake warnings in downtown Oakland. \u003ccite>(Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“This is a very big step,” says Ryan Arba, the test coordinator for the California Office of Emergency Services.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to look at all the data in total,” he says “but we always have to remember that today, we have no seconds of warning,” a reference to the fact that California currently has no comprehensive warning system in place for earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The recently-launched \u003ca href=\"https://www.shakealert.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ShakeAlert system\u003c/a>, co-developed by USGS and its university partners, provides anywhere from a few seconds to more than a minute of notice before shaking starts — but only to institutions participating in a pilot program. Ultimately, the goal is to give everyone with a cellphone a few seconds to “drop, cover, and hold on” before the earth moves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“And you can actually be in a protected place before the shaking even starts,” notes Arba, “which I think is pretty cool.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wednesday’s test was not without its glitches: for instance iPad tablets in the test center did not pick up the alert. The challenge ahead is to get the system dialed in, so it’ll work quickly and reliably with all devices.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Toward that end, testers asked people within about a 10-block radius of Oakland’s City Hall, to note exactly when the alert hit their cellphones, and report it on the \u003ca href=\"https://www.caloes.ca.gov/cal-oes-divisions/earthquake-tsunami-volcano-programs/california-earthquake-early-warning-program\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CalOES website\u003c/a>. As of Wednesday afternoon, more than 900 people had responded.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The people responding to that survey will provide us that feedback that we need to see whether or not we should move forward with this option.”\u003cbr>\n[ad fullwidth]\u003cbr>\nExtensive testing of the ShakeAlert system has proven its potential. A West Coast-wide network of ground sensors detect the very first burb from a developing earthquake, calculates the potential shaking and time before it hits a given location, and issues an alarm before the secondary wave — the one we feel — arrives.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But according to Robert de Groot with the USGS, it’s still unknown if the cellular system will be fast enough to relay that information in time, when seconds count.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s the part we’re testing,” he says, “so this is citizen science at its best: you have all these people with their multiplicity of devices on them and they’re gonna get this alert coming through them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Exactly when that will happen for everyone is still an open question, but officials say that with continued success in testing, it could be reality within a year’s time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Officials are trying out earthquake warnings on the system used for Amber Alerts.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704848766,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":13,"wordCount":618},"headData":{"title":"California 'That Much Closer' to Cellphone Earthquake Warnings After Oakland Test | KQED","description":"Officials are trying out earthquake warnings on the system used for Amber Alerts.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"California 'That Much Closer' to Cellphone Earthquake Warnings After Oakland Test","datePublished":"2019-03-28T02:00:59.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T01:06:06.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Engineering","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1939628/california-that-much-closer-to-cell-phone-earthquake-warnings-after-oakland-test","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Scientists and disaster-response officials say they’re encouraged after their first attempt to push out an alert from the state’s newly-developed earthquake warning system to cellphones, over the same network used for Amber Alerts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>State emergency services staff and scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey triggered the local test at 11 a.m. on Wednesday. About 4 seconds later, an array of cellphones laid out in the downtown Oakland test center started lighting up and sounding off with a symphony of the \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHiqVHeSDvo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">familiar tones\u003c/a> usually associated with \u003ca href=\"https://www.amberalert.gov/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Amber Alerts\u003c/a>. This time, though, the subsequent text message advised users that this was only a test and no action was required. For the experiment, phones of various make, model and vintage were arrayed at the command center, going back to the flip-phone era. Most appeared to respond, though with varying time lags. Officials seemed pleased with the early returns.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1939636\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/03/Array_1908.jpeg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1939636 size-full\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/03/Array_1908.jpeg\" alt=\"Photo: phone array\" width=\"600\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/03/Array_1908.jpeg 600w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/03/Array_1908-160x213.jpeg 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Coordinators line up different cellphones to see how they respond to a test for earthquake warnings in downtown Oakland. \u003ccite>(Craig Miller/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“This is a very big step,” says Ryan Arba, the test coordinator for the California Office of Emergency Services.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We’re going to look at all the data in total,” he says “but we always have to remember that today, we have no seconds of warning,” a reference to the fact that California currently has no comprehensive warning system in place for earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The recently-launched \u003ca href=\"https://www.shakealert.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ShakeAlert system\u003c/a>, co-developed by USGS and its university partners, provides anywhere from a few seconds to more than a minute of notice before shaking starts — but only to institutions participating in a pilot program. Ultimately, the goal is to give everyone with a cellphone a few seconds to “drop, cover, and hold on” before the earth moves.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“And you can actually be in a protected place before the shaking even starts,” notes Arba, “which I think is pretty cool.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Wednesday’s test was not without its glitches: for instance iPad tablets in the test center did not pick up the alert. The challenge ahead is to get the system dialed in, so it’ll work quickly and reliably with all devices.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Toward that end, testers asked people within about a 10-block radius of Oakland’s City Hall, to note exactly when the alert hit their cellphones, and report it on the \u003ca href=\"https://www.caloes.ca.gov/cal-oes-divisions/earthquake-tsunami-volcano-programs/california-earthquake-early-warning-program\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CalOES website\u003c/a>. As of Wednesday afternoon, more than 900 people had responded.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The people responding to that survey will provide us that feedback that we need to see whether or not we should move forward with this option.”\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cbr>\nExtensive testing of the ShakeAlert system has proven its potential. A West Coast-wide network of ground sensors detect the very first burb from a developing earthquake, calculates the potential shaking and time before it hits a given location, and issues an alarm before the secondary wave — the one we feel — arrives.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But according to Robert de Groot with the USGS, it’s still unknown if the cellular system will be fast enough to relay that information in time, when seconds count.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That’s the part we’re testing,” he says, “so this is citizen science at its best: you have all these people with their multiplicity of devices on them and they’re gonna get this alert coming through them.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Exactly when that will happen for everyone is still an open question, but officials say that with continued success in testing, it could be reality within a year’s time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1939628/california-that-much-closer-to-cell-phone-earthquake-warnings-after-oakland-test","authors":["221"],"categories":["science_89","science_38","science_40"],"tags":["science_3840","science_3370","science_550","science_2677","science_3830","science_838"],"featImg":"science_1939637","label":"source_science_1939628"},"science_1925935":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1925935","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1925935","score":null,"sort":[1529440708000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"slow-steady-quakes-may-increase-risk-along-san-andreas","title":"Slow, Steady Quakes May Increase Risk Along San Andreas","publishDate":1529440708,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Slow, Steady Quakes May Increase Risk Along San Andreas | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Slow-moving earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault can trigger bigger, more destructive quakes, according to researchers at Arizona State University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://asunow.asu.edu/2018018-discoveries-asu-geophysicists-say-slow-earthquakes-san-andreas-fault-increase-risk-large-quakes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new study \u003c/a>published in the \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0160-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">journal \u003cem>Nature Geoscience\u003c/em>\u003c/a> suggests that this slow movement, which can last for months at a time, calls into question current models of earthquake forecasting that may be underestimating the risks.[contextly_sidebar id=”Cin32PqYMqLHXGAq35PYNgeUM76fIJGr”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many scientist have believed these gradual movements provide a safe and steady release of energy, helping to reduce the risk of a huge quake. But the new findings indicate that the motion of this continuous creep is in fact not steady, but rather consists of episodes of acceleration and deceleration.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These stop-and-go movements along the central section of the fault line can place a lot of stress on the locked segments along the fault’s outer portions, according to Manoochehr Shirzaei, co-author and assistant professor at ASU’s \u003ca href=\"https://sese.asu.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">School of Earth and Space Exploration.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that movement on the fault began every one to two years and lasted for several months before stopping,” Shirzaei said in a\u003ca href=\"https://asunow.asu.edu/2018018-discoveries-asu-geophysicists-say-slow-earthquakes-san-andreas-fault-increase-risk-large-quakes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> statement.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This stop-and-go motion is the result of high-pressure fluid in the fault zone, according to Mostafa Khoshmanesh, a graduate research assistant at SESE and the lead author.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Fault rocks contain a fluid phase that’s trapped in gaps between particles, called pore spaces,” said Khoshmanesh in a statement. “Periodic compacting of fault materials causes a brief rise in fluid pressure, which unclamps the fault and eases the movement.”[contextly_sidebar id=”pf4TxlaWuQCVjqOLHeWuNfP1mryvZC6C”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He links the phenomenon to two magnitude 7.9 earthquakes that occurred on the outer flanks of the fault line: Fort Tejon in 1857 and San Francisco in 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922612\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1922612\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-800x475.jpeg\" alt=\"Aftermath of the 1906 Quake, a photo taken by Arnold Genthe\" width=\"800\" height=\"475\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-800x475.jpeg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-160x95.jpeg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-768x456.jpeg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-1020x606.jpeg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-960x570.jpeg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-240x143.jpeg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-375x223.jpeg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-520x309.jpeg 520w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906.jpeg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Aftermath of the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco. \u003ccite>(Arnold Genthe/public domain)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Satellite\u003c/b>\u003cstrong> Data\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers used satellite data from 2003 to 2010 to track month-to-month changes in the ground along the central part of the San Andreas Fault. They combined these observations with seismic records to produce a mathematical model.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that this part of the fault has an average movement of about three centimeters a year, a little more than an inch,” Khoshmanesh said. “But at times the movement stops entirely, and at other times it has moved as much as 10 centimeters a year, or about four inches.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers say the findings are significant because they reveal a new type of fault motion that can trigger much larger, destructive earthquakes, a process that current models of earthquake forecasting systems don’t take into account.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Based on our observations, we believe that seismic hazard in California is something that varies over time and is probably higher than what people have thought up to now,” Shirzaei says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Current models are time-independent and don’t account for this variation in creep rate, he says. But “the hazard we discovered is time dependent and these periodic movements should be included in any models. Taking them into account will result in better models for earthquake prediction.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>U.S. Geological Survey models show a \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">75 percent chance for a 7 magnitude or larger earthquake\u003c/a> in northern and southern California within the next 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The new findings call into question current models of earthquake forecasting systems that may be underestimating the risks.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927789,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":17,"wordCount":572},"headData":{"title":"Slow, Steady Quakes May Increase Risk Along San Andreas | KQED","description":"The new findings call into question current models of earthquake forecasting systems that may be underestimating the risks.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Slow, Steady Quakes May Increase Risk Along San Andreas","datePublished":"2018-06-19T20:38:28.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:03:09.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Geology","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1925935/slow-steady-quakes-may-increase-risk-along-san-andreas","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Slow-moving earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault can trigger bigger, more destructive quakes, according to researchers at Arizona State University.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://asunow.asu.edu/2018018-discoveries-asu-geophysicists-say-slow-earthquakes-san-andreas-fault-increase-risk-large-quakes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new study \u003c/a>published in the \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0160-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">journal \u003cem>Nature Geoscience\u003c/em>\u003c/a> suggests that this slow movement, which can last for months at a time, calls into question current models of earthquake forecasting that may be underestimating the risks.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many scientist have believed these gradual movements provide a safe and steady release of energy, helping to reduce the risk of a huge quake. But the new findings indicate that the motion of this continuous creep is in fact not steady, but rather consists of episodes of acceleration and deceleration.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These stop-and-go movements along the central section of the fault line can place a lot of stress on the locked segments along the fault’s outer portions, according to Manoochehr Shirzaei, co-author and assistant professor at ASU’s \u003ca href=\"https://sese.asu.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">School of Earth and Space Exploration.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that movement on the fault began every one to two years and lasted for several months before stopping,” Shirzaei said in a\u003ca href=\"https://asunow.asu.edu/2018018-discoveries-asu-geophysicists-say-slow-earthquakes-san-andreas-fault-increase-risk-large-quakes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> statement.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This stop-and-go motion is the result of high-pressure fluid in the fault zone, according to Mostafa Khoshmanesh, a graduate research assistant at SESE and the lead author.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Fault rocks contain a fluid phase that’s trapped in gaps between particles, called pore spaces,” said Khoshmanesh in a statement. “Periodic compacting of fault materials causes a brief rise in fluid pressure, which unclamps the fault and eases the movement.”\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He links the phenomenon to two magnitude 7.9 earthquakes that occurred on the outer flanks of the fault line: Fort Tejon in 1857 and San Francisco in 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922612\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1922612\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-800x475.jpeg\" alt=\"Aftermath of the 1906 Quake, a photo taken by Arnold Genthe\" width=\"800\" height=\"475\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-800x475.jpeg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-160x95.jpeg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-768x456.jpeg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-1020x606.jpeg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-960x570.jpeg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-240x143.jpeg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-375x223.jpeg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906-520x309.jpeg 520w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/1024px-Aftermath_of_San_Francisco_earthquake_1906.jpeg 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Aftermath of the 1906 earthquake in San Francisco. \u003ccite>(Arnold Genthe/public domain)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cb>Satellite\u003c/b>\u003cstrong> Data\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers used satellite data from 2003 to 2010 to track month-to-month changes in the ground along the central part of the San Andreas Fault. They combined these observations with seismic records to produce a mathematical model.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that this part of the fault has an average movement of about three centimeters a year, a little more than an inch,” Khoshmanesh said. “But at times the movement stops entirely, and at other times it has moved as much as 10 centimeters a year, or about four inches.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers say the findings are significant because they reveal a new type of fault motion that can trigger much larger, destructive earthquakes, a process that current models of earthquake forecasting systems don’t take into account.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Based on our observations, we believe that seismic hazard in California is something that varies over time and is probably higher than what people have thought up to now,” Shirzaei says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Current models are time-independent and don’t account for this variation in creep rate, he says. But “the hazard we discovered is time dependent and these periodic movements should be included in any models. Taking them into account will result in better models for earthquake prediction.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>U.S. Geological Survey models show a \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">75 percent chance for a 7 magnitude or larger earthquake\u003c/a> in northern and southern California within the next 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1925935/slow-steady-quakes-may-increase-risk-along-san-andreas","authors":["11428"],"categories":["science_35","science_38","science_40"],"tags":["science_257","science_3370","science_3543","science_546","science_550"],"featImg":"science_1926054","label":"source_science_1925935"},"science_1925169":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1925169","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1925169","score":null,"sort":[1528143611000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"can-foreshocks-predict-larger-earthquakes-dont-count-on-it","title":"Looks Like Another Dead End for Earthquake Prediction","publishDate":1528143611,"format":"audio","headTitle":"Looks Like Another Dead End for Earthquake Prediction | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Scientists have long held out hope that major earthquakes might be predictable from their “foreshocks” — the smaller tremors that often occur right before a major quake. But a new study suggests that the foreshock theory is, well, shaky.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In particular, some scientists thought tremors that preceded a 1999 \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_%C4%B0zmit_earthquake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">earthquake near Izmit, Turkey\u003c/a> might prove that foreshocks are warnings of bigger quakes to come, due to the way geologic events played out miles below the surface. But new and expanded analysis of seismographic data from that magnitude 7.6 event shows no connection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that the foreshocks — the earthquakes that preceded it — were no different than ordinary earthquakes,” says geophysicist Bill Ellsworth, who \u003ca href=\"https://news.stanford.edu/press/view/21149\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">led the study\u003c/a> for Stanford. “There were no characteristics that impending signs of an earthquake about to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It seems to reiterate the standard position,” says \u003ca href=\"https://websites.pmc.ucsc.edu/~seisweb/emily_brodsky/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Emily Brodsky\u003c/a>, who studies earthquake prediction at UC Santa Cruz.” Brodsky points out that while about half of big earthquakes have “observable foreshocks,” only about 5 percent of earthquakes turn out to be foreshocks. (The trouble with any precursor quakes is that you never know if they’re foreshocks — that is, related to the main shock — until the dust clears.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This has been the quandary for some time,” says Brodsky. “This study reinforces that quandary by once again finding no specific attribute of the foreshocks that can distinguish them in real time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This kind of quake prediction is distinct from current efforts to provide “\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1922600/112-years-after-the-san-francisco-earthquake-an-app-to-give-warning\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">early warning\u003c/a>” of impending quakes. The latter is based on technology picking up the “P-wave,” or primary wave that precedes the shaking and instantaneously transmitting a warning seconds before that shaking arrives at your location.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For us to ‘predict’ something will follow, we need to see a sequence of events like this before all earthquakes. We do not,” adds Richard Allen, who heads the Berkeley Seismology Lab at UC Berkeley.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What that leaves is a very interesting scientific question about the process by which an earthquake starts,” offers Richard Allen, who heads the Berkeley Seismology Lab at UC Berkeley. “Does it start with slow slip that grows and may generate foreshocks? ‘No it does not,’ says this study.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ellsworth says studying faultlines has given us much better knowledge of where quakes are likely to occur and even how strong they might be — but this latest study leaves doubt that foreshocks can tell us when.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We know that small earthquakes are symptoms of conditions that are favorable for occurrence of larger earthquakes,” he says. “We just don’t know when those small earthquakes say the larger one will occur.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Therefore he says, the key is for communities to be truly prepared for the big event, whenever it happens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The joint study by scientists at Stanford and in Turkey at Boğaziçi University’s Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute was published online Monday in the journal \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/ngeo/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nature Geoscience\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Geologists were hoping the data from a 1999 earthquake in Turkey would provide hints of a connection between smaller quakes and larger ones.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927856,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":529},"headData":{"title":"Looks Like Another Dead End for Earthquake Prediction | KQED","description":"Geologists were hoping the data from a 1999 earthquake in Turkey would provide hints of a connection between smaller quakes and larger ones.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Looks Like Another Dead End for Earthquake Prediction","datePublished":"2018-06-04T20:20:11.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:04:16.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Geology","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/tcr/2018/06/ForeshockQuakesMiller180604.mp3","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1925169/can-foreshocks-predict-larger-earthquakes-dont-count-on-it","audioDuration":116000,"audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Scientists have long held out hope that major earthquakes might be predictable from their “foreshocks” — the smaller tremors that often occur right before a major quake. But a new study suggests that the foreshock theory is, well, shaky.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In particular, some scientists thought tremors that preceded a 1999 \u003ca href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_%C4%B0zmit_earthquake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">earthquake near Izmit, Turkey\u003c/a> might prove that foreshocks are warnings of bigger quakes to come, due to the way geologic events played out miles below the surface. But new and expanded analysis of seismographic data from that magnitude 7.6 event shows no connection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found that the foreshocks — the earthquakes that preceded it — were no different than ordinary earthquakes,” says geophysicist Bill Ellsworth, who \u003ca href=\"https://news.stanford.edu/press/view/21149\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">led the study\u003c/a> for Stanford. “There were no characteristics that impending signs of an earthquake about to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It seems to reiterate the standard position,” says \u003ca href=\"https://websites.pmc.ucsc.edu/~seisweb/emily_brodsky/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Emily Brodsky\u003c/a>, who studies earthquake prediction at UC Santa Cruz.” Brodsky points out that while about half of big earthquakes have “observable foreshocks,” only about 5 percent of earthquakes turn out to be foreshocks. (The trouble with any precursor quakes is that you never know if they’re foreshocks — that is, related to the main shock — until the dust clears.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This has been the quandary for some time,” says Brodsky. “This study reinforces that quandary by once again finding no specific attribute of the foreshocks that can distinguish them in real time.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This kind of quake prediction is distinct from current efforts to provide “\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1922600/112-years-after-the-san-francisco-earthquake-an-app-to-give-warning\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">early warning\u003c/a>” of impending quakes. The latter is based on technology picking up the “P-wave,” or primary wave that precedes the shaking and instantaneously transmitting a warning seconds before that shaking arrives at your location.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“For us to ‘predict’ something will follow, we need to see a sequence of events like this before all earthquakes. We do not,” adds Richard Allen, who heads the Berkeley Seismology Lab at UC Berkeley.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What that leaves is a very interesting scientific question about the process by which an earthquake starts,” offers Richard Allen, who heads the Berkeley Seismology Lab at UC Berkeley. “Does it start with slow slip that grows and may generate foreshocks? ‘No it does not,’ says this study.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ellsworth says studying faultlines has given us much better knowledge of where quakes are likely to occur and even how strong they might be — but this latest study leaves doubt that foreshocks can tell us when.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We know that small earthquakes are symptoms of conditions that are favorable for occurrence of larger earthquakes,” he says. “We just don’t know when those small earthquakes say the larger one will occur.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Therefore he says, the key is for communities to be truly prepared for the big event, whenever it happens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The joint study by scientists at Stanford and in Turkey at Boğaziçi University’s Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute was published online Monday in the journal \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/ngeo/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nature Geoscience\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1925169/can-foreshocks-predict-larger-earthquakes-dont-count-on-it","authors":["221"],"categories":["science_38","science_40"],"tags":["science_529","science_427","science_3370","science_550"],"featImg":"science_1925183","label":"source_science_1925169"},"science_1922458":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1922458","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1922458","score":null,"sort":[1523890931000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"there-are-earthquakes-on-mars-wait-theyre-marsquakes","title":"There Are Earthquakes on Mars! Wait ... They're 'Marsquakes'","publishDate":1523890931,"format":"audio","headTitle":"There Are Earthquakes on Mars! Wait … They’re ‘Marsquakes’ | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>Scientists are about to measure seismic activity on Mars for the first time. NASA is set to launch the InSight lander as early as May 5, carrying a seismometer to the red planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We can travel across the solar system and do investigations that will give us insight as to how we came to be and how we’re evolving.’\u003ccite>Isabel Hawkins, Exploratorium\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>The goal: learning how planets are born. Like Earth, Mars and other rocky planets have a crust, mantle and core. And Mars \u003ca href=\"http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/ucla-scientist-discovers-plate-237303\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has tectonic plates\u003c/a>, too, although fewer than Earth does.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earth is like an egg shell, with its surface broken in many small pieces. Over billions of years, these actively shifting tectonic plates have hidden much of our planet’s ancient history.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mars has fewer breaks in its crust, and the planet’s surface is breaking at a very slow pace. So Mars, at an earlier phase in its geologic evolution, offers the chance to see an infant version of our home planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>InSight, which stands for Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, will spend about six months traveling to Mars. And before InSight heads off on its mission, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory is taking a \u003ca href=\"https://mars.nasa.gov/insight/participate/roadshow/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">model of the lander \u003c/a>on a roadshow. Bay Area residents can catch \u003ca href=\"https://www.exploratorium.edu/visit/calendar/insight-lander-april-18-to-22-2018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">InSight at the Exploratorium\u003c/a> in San Francisco, April 18-22.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922463\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1922463\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-800x400.jpg\" alt=\"A map of the red planet.\" width=\"800\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-800x400.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-160x80.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-768x384.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-1020x510.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-1200x600.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-1920x960.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-1180x590.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-960x480.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-240x120.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-375x188.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-520x260.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">InSight’s Landing Site: Elysium Planitia. This region is a a flat-smooth plain just north of the equator. \u003ccite>(NASA/JPL-CalTech)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: So, we’re here at the webcast studio at the Exploratorium and there’s going to be a very special visitor here in a few days. \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: That’s right, we have the whole team from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena that’s coming to share with us all the excitement of the InSight Lander.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: So there will be a model of it here. It has some kind of interesting equipment on it. What do you think is especially important?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”DrCdsukBP1v1bOUuYNzvtwfypJFtMQv7″]Hawkins: There are three scientific instruments aboard the InSight Lander. The one that I’m most excited about is the seismometer, because it will measure quakes on Mars.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: Why do we want to know about earthquakes — not earthquakes, I guess they’re called marsquakes. Why do we want to know about quakes on Mars? I think a lot of people would be surprised to even know that there are quakes that happen in space.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Yeah, they’re not part of the popular consciousness as evidenced by our stumbling in terms of how we call it, what do we call it. Marsquake, or earthquake, or earthquakes on the moon. I mean it starts to get confusing, but as a matter of fact there are moonquakes, for example, in our own satellite, our own moon.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Dc-8WOtJPY&feature=youtu.be\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are also ioquakes in one of the moons of Jupiter and there have been research studies that have shown that there are plate tectonics, or evidence of plate tectonics, which are the drivers of many earthquakes here on Earth. Also, that another moon of Jupiter, called Europa, has evidence for such plate tectonics. And so we expect seismic activities are also taking place there.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: What will a better understanding of marsquakes help us learn about the planet?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Well, by understanding how the planet is quaking, we can get an idea of how the early solar system was formed and what were those early processes. Not just on Mars, but also on the other terrestrial planets, which are the inner rocky planets of the solar system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922464\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1922464\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"A space craft in a clean lab.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-520x390.jpg 520w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">InSight receiving finishing touches at Vandenberg Air Force Base in Central California, ahead of its launch, expected May 5, 2018. \u003ccite>(NASA/JPL-CalTech)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: Is Earth one of those?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Yes, Earth is one of those.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: So, will studying quakes on Mars help us understand more about our own planet?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Yes, definitely by studying the inner layers of Mars and understanding how Mars formed and evolved geologically, that information can provide insights into the other terrestrial planets or the other inner solar system planets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”mm580ZuDUuCpjPSC3DyeN7WpNuDa4BxU”]Earth is much more geologically active than Mars, so Mars retains those early fingerprints as to how those processes began a long time ago. And that information has been lost here on Earth, because the planet is so much more active, but Mars still retained that early fingerprint information that’s so necessary.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: So is Mars in this way an earlier version of the Earth?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Yes, that’s a great way of putting it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: That is really cool.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Yeah, it’s really cool that we can actually travel across the solar system and do investigations that will give us insights as to how we came to be and how we’re evolving.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"NASA is sending a robot to Mars to measure quakes for the first time. Scientists hope to learn more about early Earth.\r\n","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704928001,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":true,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":25,"wordCount":839},"headData":{"title":"There Are Earthquakes on Mars! Wait ... They're 'Marsquakes' | KQED","description":"NASA is sending a robot to Mars to measure quakes for the first time. Scientists hope to learn more about early Earth.\r\n","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"There Are Earthquakes on Mars! Wait ... They're 'Marsquakes'","datePublished":"2018-04-16T15:02:11.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:06:41.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Astronomy","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2018/04/VentonMarsquake.mp3","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1922458/there-are-earthquakes-on-mars-wait-theyre-marsquakes","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Scientists are about to measure seismic activity on Mars for the first time. NASA is set to launch the InSight lander as early as May 5, carrying a seismometer to the red planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘We can travel across the solar system and do investigations that will give us insight as to how we came to be and how we’re evolving.’\u003ccite>Isabel Hawkins, Exploratorium\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>The goal: learning how planets are born. Like Earth, Mars and other rocky planets have a crust, mantle and core. And Mars \u003ca href=\"http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/ucla-scientist-discovers-plate-237303\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has tectonic plates\u003c/a>, too, although fewer than Earth does.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earth is like an egg shell, with its surface broken in many small pieces. Over billions of years, these actively shifting tectonic plates have hidden much of our planet’s ancient history.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Mars has fewer breaks in its crust, and the planet’s surface is breaking at a very slow pace. So Mars, at an earlier phase in its geologic evolution, offers the chance to see an infant version of our home planet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>InSight, which stands for Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, will spend about six months traveling to Mars. And before InSight heads off on its mission, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory is taking a \u003ca href=\"https://mars.nasa.gov/insight/participate/roadshow/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">model of the lander \u003c/a>on a roadshow. Bay Area residents can catch \u003ca href=\"https://www.exploratorium.edu/visit/calendar/insight-lander-april-18-to-22-2018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">InSight at the Exploratorium\u003c/a> in San Francisco, April 18-22.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922463\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1922463\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-800x400.jpg\" alt=\"A map of the red planet.\" width=\"800\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-800x400.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-160x80.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-768x384.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-1020x510.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-1200x600.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-1920x960.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-1180x590.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-960x480.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-240x120.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-375x188.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/PIA22232-full-520x260.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">InSight’s Landing Site: Elysium Planitia. This region is a a flat-smooth plain just north of the equator. \u003ccite>(NASA/JPL-CalTech)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: So, we’re here at the webcast studio at the Exploratorium and there’s going to be a very special visitor here in a few days. \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: That’s right, we have the whole team from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena that’s coming to share with us all the excitement of the InSight Lander.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: So there will be a model of it here. It has some kind of interesting equipment on it. What do you think is especially important?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>Hawkins: There are three scientific instruments aboard the InSight Lander. The one that I’m most excited about is the seismometer, because it will measure quakes on Mars.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: Why do we want to know about earthquakes — not earthquakes, I guess they’re called marsquakes. Why do we want to know about quakes on Mars? I think a lot of people would be surprised to even know that there are quakes that happen in space.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Yeah, they’re not part of the popular consciousness as evidenced by our stumbling in terms of how we call it, what do we call it. Marsquake, or earthquake, or earthquakes on the moon. I mean it starts to get confusing, but as a matter of fact there are moonquakes, for example, in our own satellite, our own moon.\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/7Dc-8WOtJPY'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/7Dc-8WOtJPY'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cp>There are also ioquakes in one of the moons of Jupiter and there have been research studies that have shown that there are plate tectonics, or evidence of plate tectonics, which are the drivers of many earthquakes here on Earth. Also, that another moon of Jupiter, called Europa, has evidence for such plate tectonics. And so we expect seismic activities are also taking place there.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: What will a better understanding of marsquakes help us learn about the planet?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Well, by understanding how the planet is quaking, we can get an idea of how the early solar system was formed and what were those early processes. Not just on Mars, but also on the other terrestrial planets, which are the inner rocky planets of the solar system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922464\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1922464\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"A space craft in a clean lab.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full-520x390.jpg 520w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/InterplanetaryLaunch-1280-full.jpg 1280w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">InSight receiving finishing touches at Vandenberg Air Force Base in Central California, ahead of its launch, expected May 5, 2018. \u003ccite>(NASA/JPL-CalTech)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: Is Earth one of those?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Yes, Earth is one of those.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: So, will studying quakes on Mars help us understand more about our own planet?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Yes, definitely by studying the inner layers of Mars and understanding how Mars formed and evolved geologically, that information can provide insights into the other terrestrial planets or the other inner solar system planets.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>Earth is much more geologically active than Mars, so Mars retains those early fingerprints as to how those processes began a long time ago. And that information has been lost here on Earth, because the planet is so much more active, but Mars still retained that early fingerprint information that’s so necessary.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: So is Mars in this way an earlier version of the Earth?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Yes, that’s a great way of putting it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Venton: That is really cool.\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hawkins: Yeah, it’s really cool that we can actually travel across the solar system and do investigations that will give us insights as to how we came to be and how we’re evolving.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1922458/there-are-earthquakes-on-mars-wait-theyre-marsquakes","authors":["11088"],"categories":["science_28","science_3423"],"tags":["science_3370","science_5188","science_5179","science_5175","science_813","science_550","science_577"],"featImg":"science_1922461","label":"source_science_1922458"},"science_641271":{"type":"posts","id":"science_641271","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"641271","score":null,"sort":[1460941231000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"earthquake-science-at-the-threshold-1906-was-a-game-changer","title":"Earthquake Science at the Threshold: 1906 Was a Game Changer","publishDate":1460941231,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Earthquake Science at the Threshold: 1906 Was a Game Changer | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>Scientists still debate the magnitude of the 1906 earthquake that leveled much of San Francisco and surrounds, 110 years ago today. Long referred to as magnitude 8 or greater (using the now retired Richter scale), more recent analyses peg it at 7.9 or even 7.7.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Suffice it to say that the Great San Francisco Earthquake (actually centered off of present-day Daly City) deserved to be called “the big one.” The rip along the San Andreas fault stretched for 296 miles. By comparison, the 2014 South Napa Earthquake was a 7-mile hiccup.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘At the time of the 1906 earthquake, we didn’t understand that earthquakes occurred on faults.’\u003ccite>Richard Allen, UC Berkeley\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>The 1906 quake forever changed the Bay Area’s landscape and culture — but that “slip” of the San Andreas fault was also a game changer in the \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2016/04/15/exploring-earthquakes/\">field of earthquake science\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“At the time of the 1906 earthquake, we didn’t understand that earthquakes occurred on faults,” marvels Richard Allen, who directs the seismological lab at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It seems unbelievable that we wouldn’t understand that at that time but we didn’t.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 1600-page report that followed, two years in the making and spearheaded by geologist Andrew Lawson, was a treasure trove of data that Allen says is still used by modern seismologists. (Excerpts and some \u003ca href=\"http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_vault/2014/04/18/san_francisco_earthquake_maps_of_the_geographical_distribution_of_its_intensity.html\">fascinating graphics\u003c/a> from the Lawson report appear in a 2014 look-back from Slate’s historical blog, The Vault.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Recent years have seen accelerating advances in the science, including a major breakthrough: the development of earthquake warning systems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Starved of funding and caught up in debates over its design, California’s statewide ShakeAlert system has just advanced from testing into the pilot phase, lagging warning systems that are already fully deployed in Japan and Mexico. ShakeAlert sends warnings to the personal computers of subscribers by sounding an alarm klaxon and by giving a countdown to the shaking with its estimated intensity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641614\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 528px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-641614 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/RS11864_454093346-sfi.jpg\" alt=\"The 1906 San Francisco quake released more than 1,000 times the energy of the 6.0 Napa quake in 2014.\" width=\"528\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/RS11864_454093346-sfi.jpg 528w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/RS11864_454093346-sfi-400x273.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 528px) 100vw, 528px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The 1906 San Francisco quake released more than 1,000 times the energy of the 6.0 Napa quake in 2014, the aftermath of which is pictured above. \u003ccite>(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It’s based on the network of in-ground sensors known as the \u003ca href=\"http://www.cisn.org/\">California Integrated Seismic Network\u003c/a>, which detects deep underground rumblings in fault zones. Currently the senors are clustered near major metropolitan areas. Scientists aim to double the number of sensors to improve the accuracy of the system. But adding stations is costly and time-consuming. With relatively scant funding, it’s been slow going.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists recently gave the system a boost by launching the \u003ca href=\"http://myshake.berkeley.edu/\">“MyShake” network\u003c/a>, a crowdsourcing approach harnessing the technology in cell phones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Globally, more than 100,000 people have downloaded the app (which is only available for Android phones) and registered with the network, including about 12,000 users in California. So far, the smartphone network is only gathering earthquake data—almost overwhelming the Berkeley seismological lab’s ability to sift through it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s crazy,” says Jennifer Strauss, the lab’s external relations lead. “There’s a lot of data coming in.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan is that eventually, that data will be instantly turned around into actual quake warnings on your phone, seconds before the shaking starts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUkL4V3bOcA]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m really hopeful that five years from now, everyone will have earthquake early warning,” says Allen. “I think that’s a realistic goal. I would like it to be sooner. If the funding comes in faster it’ll be sooner.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Allen says money is the biggest obstacle. The federal government recently kicked in two rounds of funding that will help. Building out the system and keeping it running will cost tens of millions of dollars. The original state law authorizing the system contained no funding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for the next “holy grail” of seismic science—actually predicting when individual earthquakes will occur—most scientists agree that is still decades away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[soundcloud url=”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/259707350″ params=”color=ff5500&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false” width=”100%” height=”166″ iframe=”true” /]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Explore earthquake basics with \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2016/04/15/exploring-earthquakes/\">new explainers from KQED\u003c/a> and the California Academy of Sciences.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 set seismic science on the path that led to today's advances.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704930306,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":true,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":21,"wordCount":755},"headData":{"title":"Earthquake Science at the Threshold: 1906 Was a Game Changer | KQED","description":"The Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 set seismic science on the path that led to today's advances.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Earthquake Science at the Threshold: 1906 Was a Game Changer","datePublished":"2016-04-18T01:00:31.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:45:06.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/641271/earthquake-science-at-the-threshold-1906-was-a-game-changer","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Scientists still debate the magnitude of the 1906 earthquake that leveled much of San Francisco and surrounds, 110 years ago today. Long referred to as magnitude 8 or greater (using the now retired Richter scale), more recent analyses peg it at 7.9 or even 7.7.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Suffice it to say that the Great San Francisco Earthquake (actually centered off of present-day Daly City) deserved to be called “the big one.” The rip along the San Andreas fault stretched for 296 miles. By comparison, the 2014 South Napa Earthquake was a 7-mile hiccup.\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignright\">‘At the time of the 1906 earthquake, we didn’t understand that earthquakes occurred on faults.’\u003ccite>Richard Allen, UC Berkeley\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>The 1906 quake forever changed the Bay Area’s landscape and culture — but that “slip” of the San Andreas fault was also a game changer in the \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2016/04/15/exploring-earthquakes/\">field of earthquake science\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“At the time of the 1906 earthquake, we didn’t understand that earthquakes occurred on faults,” marvels Richard Allen, who directs the seismological lab at UC Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It seems unbelievable that we wouldn’t understand that at that time but we didn’t.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The 1600-page report that followed, two years in the making and spearheaded by geologist Andrew Lawson, was a treasure trove of data that Allen says is still used by modern seismologists. (Excerpts and some \u003ca href=\"http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_vault/2014/04/18/san_francisco_earthquake_maps_of_the_geographical_distribution_of_its_intensity.html\">fascinating graphics\u003c/a> from the Lawson report appear in a 2014 look-back from Slate’s historical blog, The Vault.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Recent years have seen accelerating advances in the science, including a major breakthrough: the development of earthquake warning systems.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Starved of funding and caught up in debates over its design, California’s statewide ShakeAlert system has just advanced from testing into the pilot phase, lagging warning systems that are already fully deployed in Japan and Mexico. ShakeAlert sends warnings to the personal computers of subscribers by sounding an alarm klaxon and by giving a countdown to the shaking with its estimated intensity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_641614\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 528px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-641614 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/RS11864_454093346-sfi.jpg\" alt=\"The 1906 San Francisco quake released more than 1,000 times the energy of the 6.0 Napa quake in 2014.\" width=\"528\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/RS11864_454093346-sfi.jpg 528w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/04/RS11864_454093346-sfi-400x273.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 528px) 100vw, 528px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The 1906 San Francisco quake released more than 1,000 times the energy of the 6.0 Napa quake in 2014, the aftermath of which is pictured above. \u003ccite>(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>It’s based on the network of in-ground sensors known as the \u003ca href=\"http://www.cisn.org/\">California Integrated Seismic Network\u003c/a>, which detects deep underground rumblings in fault zones. Currently the senors are clustered near major metropolitan areas. Scientists aim to double the number of sensors to improve the accuracy of the system. But adding stations is costly and time-consuming. With relatively scant funding, it’s been slow going.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists recently gave the system a boost by launching the \u003ca href=\"http://myshake.berkeley.edu/\">“MyShake” network\u003c/a>, a crowdsourcing approach harnessing the technology in cell phones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Globally, more than 100,000 people have downloaded the app (which is only available for Android phones) and registered with the network, including about 12,000 users in California. So far, the smartphone network is only gathering earthquake data—almost overwhelming the Berkeley seismological lab’s ability to sift through it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s crazy,” says Jennifer Strauss, the lab’s external relations lead. “There’s a lot of data coming in.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The plan is that eventually, that data will be instantly turned around into actual quake warnings on your phone, seconds before the shaking starts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/vUkL4V3bOcA'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/vUkL4V3bOcA'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I’m really hopeful that five years from now, everyone will have earthquake early warning,” says Allen. “I think that’s a realistic goal. I would like it to be sooner. If the funding comes in faster it’ll be sooner.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Allen says money is the biggest obstacle. The federal government recently kicked in two rounds of funding that will help. Building out the system and keeping it running will cost tens of millions of dollars. The original state law authorizing the system contained no funding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for the next “holy grail” of seismic science—actually predicting when individual earthquakes will occur—most scientists agree that is still decades away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cdiv class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__shortcodes__shortcodeWrapper'>\n \u003ciframe width='”100%”' height='”166″'\n scrolling='no' frameborder='no'\n src='https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/259707350″&visual=true&”color=ff5500&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false”'\n title='”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/259707350″'>\n \u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/div>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Explore earthquake basics with \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2016/04/15/exploring-earthquakes/\">new explainers from KQED\u003c/a> and the California Academy of Sciences.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/641271/earthquake-science-at-the-threshold-1906-was-a-game-changer","authors":["221"],"categories":["science_38","science_40","science_42","science_43"],"tags":["science_427","science_550"],"featImg":"science_641915","label":"science"},"science_22987":{"type":"posts","id":"science_22987","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"22987","score":null,"sort":[1414097579000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"south-napa-quake-offers-key-test-for-real-time-gps-detection","title":"South Napa Quake Offers Key Test for Real-Time GPS Detection","publishDate":1414097579,"format":"aside","headTitle":"South Napa Quake Offers Key Test for Real-Time GPS Detection | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22989\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/napaquakepic.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/napaquakepic.jpg\" alt=\"Napa earthquake damage\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22989\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This building at Main and Clinton streets in Napa was damaged in the magnitude 6.0 South Napa earthquake of August 24. The experimental real-time GPS detection system in Berkeley flagged this quake just days after it was activated. (\u003ca href=\"https://www.flickr.com/photos/54485353@N05/\">Julianna Brown\u003c/a>/\u003ca href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/\">CC-BY-NC-ND 2.0\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>GPS, the Global Positioning System, underlies many familiar services like your phone’s location finder and your car’s navigation. Now the industrial-strength version of GPS is leading the way in a new approach to instant earthquake warnings being tested in Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The GPS most of us know about is a static service that works on demand. A GPS receiver in a car, phone or handheld unit monitors a high-precision network of satellites and calculates its current location from their timing signals. A less-known GPS system is a network of receivers at fixed locations that does this constantly each second, or even faster, in real time. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A real-time GPS network is widely used by companies that need to follow the whereabouts of things like telephone poles. Every modern nation has one. Japan’s real-time GPS network has more than a thousand stations. Starting around 15 years ago, scientists imagined using that network to detect earthquakes—not the shaking itself, but the permanent changes in the ground’s vertical and horizontal position. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The giant Tohoku earthquake of 2011 was an important test for that line of research. That quake brought out a major shortcoming of Japan’s existing earthquake early warning system, which relies on seismometers: the quake was too large and complex for the system to handle. The shaking alerts assumed that the quake was no larger than magnitude 8, but in fact at magnitude 9 it had 10 times more ground motion. The quake’s true size was not known for hours, and while the alert system saved many lives by giving warnings of up to 60 seconds, it could have done much better for very large events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Japanese real-time GPS network offered an alternative, independent way to monitor the giant quake as it happened. Studies of the GPS records showed that it could have been used to characterize the earthquake, both more accurately and much faster. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22988\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 372px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/Picture1.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/Picture1.png\" alt=\"Quake detection by seismo and GPS\" width=\"372\" height=\"268\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22988\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This figure from \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051894/abstract\">a 2012 paper in Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/a> compares the performance of Japan’s existing early-warning system (red line) to a simulated system based on real-time GPS data (black lines). Not only did the GPS setup converge to a more accurate solution, it did it faster. (after Tim Wright/AGU)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Researchers at UC Berkeley have been working for the last few years on a real-time GPS system that can actually function. This year they placed their experimental system into working (operational) status by connecting it to California’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.shakealert.org/\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a>—the program that will become \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/09/11/californias-earthquake-early-warning-system-is-ready-to-get-started/\">the foundation of the state’s pioneering early warning system\u003c/a>. Within days, it captured the South Napa earthquake. Although at magnitude 6, that quake wasn’t big enough to make trouble for the seismometer-based network, it was a gratifying test.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley’s operational real-time GPS algorithm, called G-larmS, was developed by postdoc researcher Ronni Grapenthin (now at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology). He and his coworkers \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JB011400/abstract\">reported details this week in the \u003ci>Journal of Geophysical Research\u003c/i>\u003c/a>. It’s a fast-and-dirty program specifically tuned to the Bay Area’s earthquake faults with a lot of simplifying assumptions. But as tested on simulations of a large Hayward Fault earthquake and on \u003ca href=\"http://www.data.scec.org/research-tools/MayorCucapah20100404/\">real GPS data from the 2012 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake\u003c/a>, it works pretty well so far.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The paper does not include the results from the Napa quake, but Grapenthin’s group has another paper coming out soon covering that event in detail. Meanwhile, you can see \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4jU7UmZnJc&list=UUPuYzA4Q6Voxt4tW1HegmFQ\">Grapenthin’s talk\u003c/a> from last month’s \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/3rd_international_conference/\">Third Earthquake Early Warning Conference\u003c/a> in which he discusses the Napa results. G-larmS, he says, could have sized up the Napa quake accurately in just 14 seconds. If this kind of success can be repeated for a much larger quake of, say, magnitude 7.5, it could make differences in the instant warnings and in the immediate actions of emergency responders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is not the only real-time GPS research effort going on in this country. A team at Central Washington University has been working for the last 10 years with real-time GPS at the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array or \u003ca href=\"http://www.panga.org/\">PANGA\u003c/a>. That part of the world is prone to magnitude 9 earthquakes too, and the stakes are high.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The familiar GPS system is being enlisted to help improve earthquake shaking alerts; an experimental system is now operating at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704932725,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":780},"headData":{"title":"South Napa Quake Offers Key Test for Real-Time GPS Detection | KQED","description":"The familiar GPS system is being enlisted to help improve earthquake shaking alerts; an experimental system is now operating at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"South Napa Quake Offers Key Test for Real-Time GPS Detection","datePublished":"2014-10-23T20:52:59.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:25:25.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/22987/south-napa-quake-offers-key-test-for-real-time-gps-detection","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22989\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/napaquakepic.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/napaquakepic.jpg\" alt=\"Napa earthquake damage\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22989\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This building at Main and Clinton streets in Napa was damaged in the magnitude 6.0 South Napa earthquake of August 24. The experimental real-time GPS detection system in Berkeley flagged this quake just days after it was activated. (\u003ca href=\"https://www.flickr.com/photos/54485353@N05/\">Julianna Brown\u003c/a>/\u003ca href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/\">CC-BY-NC-ND 2.0\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>GPS, the Global Positioning System, underlies many familiar services like your phone’s location finder and your car’s navigation. Now the industrial-strength version of GPS is leading the way in a new approach to instant earthquake warnings being tested in Berkeley.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The GPS most of us know about is a static service that works on demand. A GPS receiver in a car, phone or handheld unit monitors a high-precision network of satellites and calculates its current location from their timing signals. A less-known GPS system is a network of receivers at fixed locations that does this constantly each second, or even faster, in real time. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A real-time GPS network is widely used by companies that need to follow the whereabouts of things like telephone poles. Every modern nation has one. Japan’s real-time GPS network has more than a thousand stations. Starting around 15 years ago, scientists imagined using that network to detect earthquakes—not the shaking itself, but the permanent changes in the ground’s vertical and horizontal position. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The giant Tohoku earthquake of 2011 was an important test for that line of research. That quake brought out a major shortcoming of Japan’s existing earthquake early warning system, which relies on seismometers: the quake was too large and complex for the system to handle. The shaking alerts assumed that the quake was no larger than magnitude 8, but in fact at magnitude 9 it had 10 times more ground motion. The quake’s true size was not known for hours, and while the alert system saved many lives by giving warnings of up to 60 seconds, it could have done much better for very large events.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Japanese real-time GPS network offered an alternative, independent way to monitor the giant quake as it happened. Studies of the GPS records showed that it could have been used to characterize the earthquake, both more accurately and much faster. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_22988\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 372px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/Picture1.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/10/Picture1.png\" alt=\"Quake detection by seismo and GPS\" width=\"372\" height=\"268\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22988\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This figure from \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051894/abstract\">a 2012 paper in Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/a> compares the performance of Japan’s existing early-warning system (red line) to a simulated system based on real-time GPS data (black lines). Not only did the GPS setup converge to a more accurate solution, it did it faster. (after Tim Wright/AGU)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Researchers at UC Berkeley have been working for the last few years on a real-time GPS system that can actually function. This year they placed their experimental system into working (operational) status by connecting it to California’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.shakealert.org/\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a>—the program that will become \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/09/11/californias-earthquake-early-warning-system-is-ready-to-get-started/\">the foundation of the state’s pioneering early warning system\u003c/a>. Within days, it captured the South Napa earthquake. Although at magnitude 6, that quake wasn’t big enough to make trouble for the seismometer-based network, it was a gratifying test.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>UC Berkeley’s operational real-time GPS algorithm, called G-larmS, was developed by postdoc researcher Ronni Grapenthin (now at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology). He and his coworkers \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JB011400/abstract\">reported details this week in the \u003ci>Journal of Geophysical Research\u003c/i>\u003c/a>. It’s a fast-and-dirty program specifically tuned to the Bay Area’s earthquake faults with a lot of simplifying assumptions. But as tested on simulations of a large Hayward Fault earthquake and on \u003ca href=\"http://www.data.scec.org/research-tools/MayorCucapah20100404/\">real GPS data from the 2012 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake\u003c/a>, it works pretty well so far.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The paper does not include the results from the Napa quake, but Grapenthin’s group has another paper coming out soon covering that event in detail. Meanwhile, you can see \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4jU7UmZnJc&list=UUPuYzA4Q6Voxt4tW1HegmFQ\">Grapenthin’s talk\u003c/a> from last month’s \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/3rd_international_conference/\">Third Earthquake Early Warning Conference\u003c/a> in which he discusses the Napa results. G-larmS, he says, could have sized up the Napa quake accurately in just 14 seconds. If this kind of success can be repeated for a much larger quake of, say, magnitude 7.5, it could make differences in the instant warnings and in the immediate actions of emergency responders.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is not the only real-time GPS research effort going on in this country. A team at Central Washington University has been working for the last 10 years with real-time GPS at the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array or \u003ca href=\"http://www.panga.org/\">PANGA\u003c/a>. That part of the world is prone to magnitude 9 earthquakes too, and the stakes are high.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/22987/south-napa-quake-offers-key-test-for-real-time-gps-detection","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_550","science_190"],"featImg":"science_22989","label":"science"},"science_21557":{"type":"posts","id":"science_21557","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"21557","score":null,"sort":[1410461499000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"californias-earthquake-early-warning-system-is-ready-to-get-started","title":"California's Earthquake Early Warning System Is Ready to Get Started","publishDate":1410461499,"format":"aside","headTitle":"California’s Earthquake Early Warning System Is Ready to Get Started | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21558\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/NapaEQ-ShakeAlert.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/NapaEQ-ShakeAlert.png\" alt=\"ShakeAlert screen\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21558\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Portion of a frame from the ShakeAlert warning to the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (located at the house symbol) in the seconds after the Napa earthquake. The app shows a regional map, a quick magnitude determination (5.7), the level of expected shaking (IV) on the \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/quakemags/a/Mercalli-Earthquake-Intensity-Scale.htm\">Mercalli intensity scale\u003c/a>, and the front edge of the fast P-waves (yellow) and the slower, more dangerous S-waves (red) from the earthquake (Richard Allen/ShakeAlert)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The South Napa earthquake that occurred on August 24 was on everyone’s mind as the \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/3rd_international_conference/index.html\">Third International Conference on Earthquake Early Warning\u003c/a> convened last week in Berkeley. The meeting was a powerful show of scientific and political momentum as California prepares to lead the United States into a brave new world in which we’ll get second-by-second countdowns in advance of dangerous earthquake shaking. Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom assured the conference that the money for the early-warning system will come: “It’s a political question, not a financial question.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Early warning” is not a prediction of an earthquake, but rather an instant notification that an earthquake has started and shaking is on its way. Several nations have early-warning systems in place, and California scientists have been working on an American version on a shoestring of funding. Today they’re ready to roll with a plan based on \u003ca href=\"http://www.shakealert.org/\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a>, a beta-tested system that includes a smartphone app.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On August 24, an alert reached the phone of beta tester Richard Allen, head of UC Berkeley’s Seismological Laboratory. Because he was in Southern California at the time, the app awakened him at 3:20 a.m. with a series of alarm tones and a male voice calmly saying that “no shaking will arrive in approximately 200 seconds.” But at Berkeley, the app said that light shaking would arrive in 5 seconds—and so it did.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After more then two years of testing, California is ready to turn this beta into a prototype, then a rollout for a lot of people who are eager to use ShakeAlert for real—firefighters and other emergency responders, managers of large buildings and critical facilities, computer admins and earthquake geeks. Experts from other countries are eager to share their knowledge with us. All of those people were represented at the three-day conference, where they’d gathered to see and discuss the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The mechanics of ShakeAlert are ready to go. The U.S. Geological Survey, which has funded this line of research for over 20 years, published \u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1097/\">Open-File Report 2014-1097\u003c/a> in May, a detailed plan to complete the system. USGS representatives explained that this plan constitutes a pledge to build it when the money, about $80 million over five years, is in hand. It will look pretty much like the beta version, although researchers will continue to refine every part of it during implementation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The benefits of even a few seconds’ warning are considerable. For instance, the BART system is already using the ShakeAlert beta. BART Director John McPartland said that if the Napa quake had occurred during service hours, railcars would have automatically slowed from 70 mph to 40 and from 30 mph to a stop, essentially eliminating the possibility of crippling derailments. Another speaker said that the cost of statewide ShakeAlert could be met by reducing economic losses less than one-half percent. Just avoiding a fraction of the inevitable building fires would suffice: this is why Japanese earthquake drills instruct people, if they have a few seconds before “drop, cover and hold,” to put out any open flames.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140SB135\">The state law\u003c/a> that committed California to building the early-warning system did not include funding, but state senator Alex Padilla, who sponsored that law, said that between various state accounts and contributions from federal agencies and large private companies, the money will come. \u003ca href=\"http://www.moore.org/programs/science/earthquake-early-warning-system\">Funding from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation\u003c/a>, which supported the ShakeAlert beta, will continue. And the federal budget for next year includes $5 million in new money for the ShakeAlert network, in both the \u003ca href=\"http://schiff.house.gov/press-releases/rep-schiff-secures-5-million-in-appropriations-bill-to-deploy-full-west-coast-earthquake-early-warning-system/\">House\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.aip.org/fyi/2014/senate-fy-2015-us-geological-survey-appropriations-bill\">Senate\u003c/a> versions, no mean achievement for today’s Congress. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The idea is for ShakeAlert to start in California and then expand, first to Oregon and Washington, then to the entire nation. At the same time, an ecosystem of businesses, from insurers to consultants, will find new ways to offer value from ShakeAlert’s output.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California is a natural leader in early warning, the USGS’s Douglas Given explained, because California alone accounts for two-thirds of America’s annual earthquake losses. Yet most of the country experiences earthquakes—consider that the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Virginia_earthquake\">magnitude-5.8 Virginia earthquake of August 23, 2011\u003c/a> was felt by something like 50 million people. And the recent rash of shakers triggered by deep injection wells has turned Oklahoma into earthquake country.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early-warning experts from other countries reported their advances. In Japan, a new algorithm called PLUM (Propagation of Local Undamped Motion) will avoid the false alarms that were issued for aftershocks of the 2011 quake. Japanese researchers are also working on a special set of alarms for people in high-rise buildings, which react in outsized ways to low-frequency shaking. In Europe, a nationwide alert system has been operating in Switzerland for more than six months, and several other nations have limited systems. The alert system in Mexico, launched in 1991, has expanded beyond Mexico City to four other cities, and the \u003ca href=\"http://sarmex.com.mx/wp/\">SARMEX\u003c/a> early-warning radio network, started in 2012, uses portable radios made by San Mateo-based \u003ca href=\"http://www.athoc.com/\">AtHoc\u003c/a> that are already certified for use in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What’s at the scientific frontier of the field? \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Napa earthquake triggered its alert in just 5.1 seconds, and the La Habra quake of March 28 triggered its alert in 4.1 seconds. Researchers are working to make this even faster, and several poster presentations addressed ways to shave the time down through better hardware, more rapid data transmission and quicker recognition of seismic events. The aim is to reduce the “blind zone” near a quake’s epicenter where today’s alarms come too late to matter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists have recognized that the largest earthquakes expose weaknesses in their traditional approach, which relies on seismometer data to first determine the center and the size of an earthquake and then forecast where its energy will go. High-rate location data from GPS receivers, image-recognition techniques and quick-acting Bayesian logic are leading the next wave. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And for an example of crowdsourced approaches, we heard from UC Berkeley’s Qingkai Kong about his \u003ca href=\"http://berkeleysciencereview.com/article/shake-n-quake/\">MyShake\u003c/a> app, which turns people’s smartphones into a seismic network that could be used anywhere in the world, not just in wealthy countries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I have a lot more to talk about from the meeting, so please ask your questions in the comments. Meanwhile, here are some more links worth following.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://5nf5.blogspot.com/2014/09/early-warning-device-of-earthquakes-and-other-maladies-for-everyone.html?view=magazine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UCB Astronomy (and ShakeAlert user) Prof. Joshua Bloom invents a home EEW device \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKJ0MBfIdus\">The Shakealert app in action during the Napa earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24KfBwkMw_M\">Japan’s alert system during the giant 2011 Tohoku earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3zGvs_hjdo\">Mexico’s alert system during the April 18, 2014 earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://uky.az1.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_86UyhrJ1Jwh2gtL\">Take a survey to help improve the ShakeAlert app\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The Third International Conference on Earthquake Early Warning, held in Berkeley last week, was a revealing glimpse of our future, in which we'll get precious seconds of notice before earthquake shaking strikes our lives and buildings.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704932967,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":22,"wordCount":1229},"headData":{"title":"California's Earthquake Early Warning System Is Ready to Get Started | KQED","description":"The Third International Conference on Earthquake Early Warning, held in Berkeley last week, was a revealing glimpse of our future, in which we'll get precious seconds of notice before earthquake shaking strikes our lives and buildings.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"California's Earthquake Early Warning System Is Ready to Get Started","datePublished":"2014-09-11T18:51:39.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:29:27.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/21557/californias-earthquake-early-warning-system-is-ready-to-get-started","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_21558\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/NapaEQ-ShakeAlert.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/09/NapaEQ-ShakeAlert.png\" alt=\"ShakeAlert screen\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21558\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Portion of a frame from the ShakeAlert warning to the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (located at the house symbol) in the seconds after the Napa earthquake. The app shows a regional map, a quick magnitude determination (5.7), the level of expected shaking (IV) on the \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/quakemags/a/Mercalli-Earthquake-Intensity-Scale.htm\">Mercalli intensity scale\u003c/a>, and the front edge of the fast P-waves (yellow) and the slower, more dangerous S-waves (red) from the earthquake (Richard Allen/ShakeAlert)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The South Napa earthquake that occurred on August 24 was on everyone’s mind as the \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/3rd_international_conference/index.html\">Third International Conference on Earthquake Early Warning\u003c/a> convened last week in Berkeley. The meeting was a powerful show of scientific and political momentum as California prepares to lead the United States into a brave new world in which we’ll get second-by-second countdowns in advance of dangerous earthquake shaking. Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom assured the conference that the money for the early-warning system will come: “It’s a political question, not a financial question.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Early warning” is not a prediction of an earthquake, but rather an instant notification that an earthquake has started and shaking is on its way. Several nations have early-warning systems in place, and California scientists have been working on an American version on a shoestring of funding. Today they’re ready to roll with a plan based on \u003ca href=\"http://www.shakealert.org/\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a>, a beta-tested system that includes a smartphone app.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On August 24, an alert reached the phone of beta tester Richard Allen, head of UC Berkeley’s Seismological Laboratory. Because he was in Southern California at the time, the app awakened him at 3:20 a.m. with a series of alarm tones and a male voice calmly saying that “no shaking will arrive in approximately 200 seconds.” But at Berkeley, the app said that light shaking would arrive in 5 seconds—and so it did.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After more then two years of testing, California is ready to turn this beta into a prototype, then a rollout for a lot of people who are eager to use ShakeAlert for real—firefighters and other emergency responders, managers of large buildings and critical facilities, computer admins and earthquake geeks. Experts from other countries are eager to share their knowledge with us. All of those people were represented at the three-day conference, where they’d gathered to see and discuss the future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The mechanics of ShakeAlert are ready to go. The U.S. Geological Survey, which has funded this line of research for over 20 years, published \u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1097/\">Open-File Report 2014-1097\u003c/a> in May, a detailed plan to complete the system. USGS representatives explained that this plan constitutes a pledge to build it when the money, about $80 million over five years, is in hand. It will look pretty much like the beta version, although researchers will continue to refine every part of it during implementation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The benefits of even a few seconds’ warning are considerable. For instance, the BART system is already using the ShakeAlert beta. BART Director John McPartland said that if the Napa quake had occurred during service hours, railcars would have automatically slowed from 70 mph to 40 and from 30 mph to a stop, essentially eliminating the possibility of crippling derailments. Another speaker said that the cost of statewide ShakeAlert could be met by reducing economic losses less than one-half percent. Just avoiding a fraction of the inevitable building fires would suffice: this is why Japanese earthquake drills instruct people, if they have a few seconds before “drop, cover and hold,” to put out any open flames.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140SB135\">The state law\u003c/a> that committed California to building the early-warning system did not include funding, but state senator Alex Padilla, who sponsored that law, said that between various state accounts and contributions from federal agencies and large private companies, the money will come. \u003ca href=\"http://www.moore.org/programs/science/earthquake-early-warning-system\">Funding from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation\u003c/a>, which supported the ShakeAlert beta, will continue. And the federal budget for next year includes $5 million in new money for the ShakeAlert network, in both the \u003ca href=\"http://schiff.house.gov/press-releases/rep-schiff-secures-5-million-in-appropriations-bill-to-deploy-full-west-coast-earthquake-early-warning-system/\">House\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://www.aip.org/fyi/2014/senate-fy-2015-us-geological-survey-appropriations-bill\">Senate\u003c/a> versions, no mean achievement for today’s Congress. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The idea is for ShakeAlert to start in California and then expand, first to Oregon and Washington, then to the entire nation. At the same time, an ecosystem of businesses, from insurers to consultants, will find new ways to offer value from ShakeAlert’s output.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>California is a natural leader in early warning, the USGS’s Douglas Given explained, because California alone accounts for two-thirds of America’s annual earthquake losses. Yet most of the country experiences earthquakes—consider that the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Virginia_earthquake\">magnitude-5.8 Virginia earthquake of August 23, 2011\u003c/a> was felt by something like 50 million people. And the recent rash of shakers triggered by deep injection wells has turned Oklahoma into earthquake country.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early-warning experts from other countries reported their advances. In Japan, a new algorithm called PLUM (Propagation of Local Undamped Motion) will avoid the false alarms that were issued for aftershocks of the 2011 quake. Japanese researchers are also working on a special set of alarms for people in high-rise buildings, which react in outsized ways to low-frequency shaking. In Europe, a nationwide alert system has been operating in Switzerland for more than six months, and several other nations have limited systems. The alert system in Mexico, launched in 1991, has expanded beyond Mexico City to four other cities, and the \u003ca href=\"http://sarmex.com.mx/wp/\">SARMEX\u003c/a> early-warning radio network, started in 2012, uses portable radios made by San Mateo-based \u003ca href=\"http://www.athoc.com/\">AtHoc\u003c/a> that are already certified for use in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What’s at the scientific frontier of the field? \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Napa earthquake triggered its alert in just 5.1 seconds, and the La Habra quake of March 28 triggered its alert in 4.1 seconds. Researchers are working to make this even faster, and several poster presentations addressed ways to shave the time down through better hardware, more rapid data transmission and quicker recognition of seismic events. The aim is to reduce the “blind zone” near a quake’s epicenter where today’s alarms come too late to matter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists have recognized that the largest earthquakes expose weaknesses in their traditional approach, which relies on seismometer data to first determine the center and the size of an earthquake and then forecast where its energy will go. High-rate location data from GPS receivers, image-recognition techniques and quick-acting Bayesian logic are leading the next wave. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And for an example of crowdsourced approaches, we heard from UC Berkeley’s Qingkai Kong about his \u003ca href=\"http://berkeleysciencereview.com/article/shake-n-quake/\">MyShake\u003c/a> app, which turns people’s smartphones into a seismic network that could be used anywhere in the world, not just in wealthy countries.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I have a lot more to talk about from the meeting, so please ask your questions in the comments. Meanwhile, here are some more links worth following.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://5nf5.blogspot.com/2014/09/early-warning-device-of-earthquakes-and-other-maladies-for-everyone.html?view=magazine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UCB Astronomy (and ShakeAlert user) Prof. Joshua Bloom invents a home EEW device \u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKJ0MBfIdus\">The Shakealert app in action during the Napa earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24KfBwkMw_M\">Japan’s alert system during the giant 2011 Tohoku earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3zGvs_hjdo\">Mexico’s alert system during the April 18, 2014 earthquake\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://uky.az1.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_86UyhrJ1Jwh2gtL\">Take a survey to help improve the ShakeAlert app\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/21557/californias-earthquake-early-warning-system-is-ready-to-get-started","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_1888","science_427","science_550","science_190"],"featImg":"science_21558","label":"science"},"science_20765":{"type":"posts","id":"science_20765","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"20765","score":null,"sort":[1408648330000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"new-generation-earthquake-forecasting-swings-into-operation-in-italy","title":"New-Generation Earthquake Forecasting Swings into Operation in Italy","publishDate":1408648330,"format":"aside","headTitle":"New-Generation Earthquake Forecasting Swings into Operation in Italy | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20767\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/LAquila-EQ-Bugnara_Castle.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/LAquila-EQ-Bugnara_Castle.jpg\" alt=\"Italian castle with quake damage\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20767\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The 12th-century Palazzo Ducale in Bugnara, Italy, suffered roof damage in the L’Aquila earthquake of 2009 (Susan Cardwell/Wikimedia \u003ca href=\"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/it/deed.en\">CC\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Scientists are starting to roll out the next generation of earthquake forecasts, based on a smorgasbord of theoretical advances. \u003ca href=\"http://www.scec.org/ucerf2/\">While California has been using some features of this new approach\u003c/a>, Italy is breaking new ground with a system that will issue routine seismic forecasts for the whole country—in technical terms, an operational system. Leaders in this effort explain and defend their approach in two articles in the September issue of the journal \u003ci>Seismological Research Letters\u003c/i> (SRL).[contextly_sidebar id=”6weu5cCYYr1k2YDULl1lLBiVdzZ1RrGT”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Italian system, now in beta testing, is described in an SRL article by three scientists from the \u003ca href=\"http://www.distar.unina.it/en/terremoti/pericolosita-sismica-ingv\">Seismic Hazard Center\u003c/a> of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology. It will create products similar to the map below, showing a forecast for earthquakes of magnitude 4 or greater during the first week of 2014.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20768\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 565px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Italy-EQ-forecast.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Italy-EQ-forecast.png\" alt=\"Italy quake forecast\" width=\"565\" height=\"435\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Probabilities of magnitude-4+ events during the week starting December 31, 2013. The island of Sardinia is grayed out because it isn’t included for now; so is the highly active Etna volcano, in Sicily. Notice how small the odds are. (from Marzocchi et al., “The establishment of an operational earthquake forecasting system in Italy,” SRL, doi: 10.1785/0220130219)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>We’re used to weather forecasts that give the odds of rain tomorrow. The Italian operational earthquake forecasts will work essentially the same way. The difference with earthquakes is that on any given day—even any given month or year—the odds of one happening are quite small. Seismologists know that, and the public will have to learn that as well. Once they do, they should be less prone to alarmists, cranks and frauds. This will be a good thing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Let’s take a dramatic example. We all know that big earthquakes have aftershocks. For a few days, earthquakes become hundreds, even thousands of times more likely! But sizeable aftershocks, within one magnitude unit of the mainshock, have odds of roughly 1 percent, and even that’s only in the first two or three days afterward. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That doesn’t sound like much, and it isn’t, but that level of information is still powerful. Consider this: Would people buy a lottery ticket if the state temporarily raised the chance of winning by a hundred times? They probably would, because by analogy that’s what they do when the prizes grow large.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But while people notice this kind of thing, they don’t overreact, either. Public panic thrives in the absence of official information. The Italian system will need a lot of fine-tuning and review before it’s tested on the public. (For instance, the colors on the map look more alarming than they should.) Underlying the operational system are the best quake-prediction models we have, fully open to all users and under continual testing by the \u003ca href=\"http://www.cseptesting.org/\">Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability\u003c/a>. It is, in a word, the best science available.[contextly_sidebar id=”epps1FrSegYW6amzkgZiDXf7ZeNiGnYh”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquake scientists have been slow to share this kind of information before. The best research-grade prediction schemes are improving, but they still work only a few times better than chance. But \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_L%27Aquila_earthquake\">the deadly L’Aquila, Italy, earthquake of April 2009\u003c/a> forced scientists’ hands when the official panel of earthquake experts who failed to issue a prediction or a warning at the time were convicted of manslaughter and sentenced to 6 years in jail. (The case is being retried.) \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Is it better to share imperfect knowledge with the public, or to avoid panic and misinterpretation by keeping it confidential? The message of L’Aquila was that for better or worse, the science must be shared. An expert panel, the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting, prepared a \u003ca href=\"http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371\">comprehensive report on earthquake-prediction science\u003c/a> for the Italian government in 2011 that led to the birth of the new Italian system. In a second SRL article, members of that panel led by UCLA’s Thomas Jordan argue, “Models that are uncertain and cannot explain everything can still be very useful.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Operational earthquake forecasting puts this statement into action with two essential principles. The first is a transparency principle: “authoritative scientific information about future earthquake activity should not be withheld from the public.” One of the most pernicious myths among earthquake paranoids is that the government knows the truth but is hiding it from us. This myth holds enough power to have dragged the Italian seismologists into a manslaughter trial. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The second principle is that “authoritative scientific information about future earthquake activity should be developed independently of its applications to risk assessment and mitigation.” Seismologists will be the first to admit that they aren’t competent to issue alarms, order evacuations, improve building codes, enforce zoning ordinances, and all of the other useful things that scientific knowledge can contribute to. You might call this a firewall principle, because it frees scientists from the threat of persecution. But I prefer to think of it as an inclusion principle: for society to work best, science must have an equal place at the table along with other authorities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To scientists, earthquake forecasting is still in its infancy. But operational systems are being built because the rest of us still want the information, even if scientists think it’s rudimentary. I think we can learn to handle it, just as we handle weather forecasts. And this way the public can grow in knowledge at the same time as scientists learn.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Italy is approaching the next frontier in earthquake forecasting: an \"operational\" system that will make quake forecasts routine, whose contents we can take in stride.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704933113,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":13,"wordCount":948},"headData":{"title":"New-Generation Earthquake Forecasting Swings into Operation in Italy | KQED","description":"Italy is approaching the next frontier in earthquake forecasting: an "operational" system that will make quake forecasts routine, whose contents we can take in stride.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"New-Generation Earthquake Forecasting Swings into Operation in Italy","datePublished":"2014-08-21T19:12:10.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:31:53.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/20765/new-generation-earthquake-forecasting-swings-into-operation-in-italy","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20767\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/LAquila-EQ-Bugnara_Castle.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/LAquila-EQ-Bugnara_Castle.jpg\" alt=\"Italian castle with quake damage\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20767\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The 12th-century Palazzo Ducale in Bugnara, Italy, suffered roof damage in the L’Aquila earthquake of 2009 (Susan Cardwell/Wikimedia \u003ca href=\"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5/it/deed.en\">CC\u003c/a>)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Scientists are starting to roll out the next generation of earthquake forecasts, based on a smorgasbord of theoretical advances. \u003ca href=\"http://www.scec.org/ucerf2/\">While California has been using some features of this new approach\u003c/a>, Italy is breaking new ground with a system that will issue routine seismic forecasts for the whole country—in technical terms, an operational system. Leaders in this effort explain and defend their approach in two articles in the September issue of the journal \u003ci>Seismological Research Letters\u003c/i> (SRL).\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Italian system, now in beta testing, is described in an SRL article by three scientists from the \u003ca href=\"http://www.distar.unina.it/en/terremoti/pericolosita-sismica-ingv\">Seismic Hazard Center\u003c/a> of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology. It will create products similar to the map below, showing a forecast for earthquakes of magnitude 4 or greater during the first week of 2014.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_20768\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 565px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Italy-EQ-forecast.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/08/Italy-EQ-forecast.png\" alt=\"Italy quake forecast\" width=\"565\" height=\"435\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20768\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Probabilities of magnitude-4+ events during the week starting December 31, 2013. The island of Sardinia is grayed out because it isn’t included for now; so is the highly active Etna volcano, in Sicily. Notice how small the odds are. (from Marzocchi et al., “The establishment of an operational earthquake forecasting system in Italy,” SRL, doi: 10.1785/0220130219)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>We’re used to weather forecasts that give the odds of rain tomorrow. The Italian operational earthquake forecasts will work essentially the same way. The difference with earthquakes is that on any given day—even any given month or year—the odds of one happening are quite small. Seismologists know that, and the public will have to learn that as well. Once they do, they should be less prone to alarmists, cranks and frauds. This will be a good thing.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Let’s take a dramatic example. We all know that big earthquakes have aftershocks. For a few days, earthquakes become hundreds, even thousands of times more likely! But sizeable aftershocks, within one magnitude unit of the mainshock, have odds of roughly 1 percent, and even that’s only in the first two or three days afterward. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That doesn’t sound like much, and it isn’t, but that level of information is still powerful. Consider this: Would people buy a lottery ticket if the state temporarily raised the chance of winning by a hundred times? They probably would, because by analogy that’s what they do when the prizes grow large.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But while people notice this kind of thing, they don’t overreact, either. Public panic thrives in the absence of official information. The Italian system will need a lot of fine-tuning and review before it’s tested on the public. (For instance, the colors on the map look more alarming than they should.) Underlying the operational system are the best quake-prediction models we have, fully open to all users and under continual testing by the \u003ca href=\"http://www.cseptesting.org/\">Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability\u003c/a>. It is, in a word, the best science available.\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquake scientists have been slow to share this kind of information before. The best research-grade prediction schemes are improving, but they still work only a few times better than chance. But \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_L%27Aquila_earthquake\">the deadly L’Aquila, Italy, earthquake of April 2009\u003c/a> forced scientists’ hands when the official panel of earthquake experts who failed to issue a prediction or a warning at the time were convicted of manslaughter and sentenced to 6 years in jail. (The case is being retried.) \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Is it better to share imperfect knowledge with the public, or to avoid panic and misinterpretation by keeping it confidential? The message of L’Aquila was that for better or worse, the science must be shared. An expert panel, the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting, prepared a \u003ca href=\"http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350/5371\">comprehensive report on earthquake-prediction science\u003c/a> for the Italian government in 2011 that led to the birth of the new Italian system. In a second SRL article, members of that panel led by UCLA’s Thomas Jordan argue, “Models that are uncertain and cannot explain everything can still be very useful.” \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Operational earthquake forecasting puts this statement into action with two essential principles. The first is a transparency principle: “authoritative scientific information about future earthquake activity should not be withheld from the public.” One of the most pernicious myths among earthquake paranoids is that the government knows the truth but is hiding it from us. This myth holds enough power to have dragged the Italian seismologists into a manslaughter trial. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The second principle is that “authoritative scientific information about future earthquake activity should be developed independently of its applications to risk assessment and mitigation.” Seismologists will be the first to admit that they aren’t competent to issue alarms, order evacuations, improve building codes, enforce zoning ordinances, and all of the other useful things that scientific knowledge can contribute to. You might call this a firewall principle, because it frees scientists from the threat of persecution. But I prefer to think of it as an inclusion principle: for society to work best, science must have an equal place at the table along with other authorities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To scientists, earthquake forecasting is still in its infancy. But operational systems are being built because the rest of us still want the information, even if scientists think it’s rudimentary. I think we can learn to handle it, just as we handle weather forecasts. And this way the public can grow in knowledge at the same time as scientists learn.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/20765/new-generation-earthquake-forecasting-swings-into-operation-in-italy","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_529","science_550"],"featImg":"science_20767","label":"science"},"science_15325":{"type":"posts","id":"science_15325","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"15325","score":null,"sort":[1394802018000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"california-shakin-weve-got-a-lot-of-earthquakes-ahead-of-us","title":"California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us'","publishDate":1394802018,"format":"aside","headTitle":"California Shakin’: ‘We’ve Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us’ | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15346\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15346\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/deg00013.jpg\" alt=\"The 1906 earthquake (USGS)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A woman surveys earthquake damage following the 1906 San Francisco quake. (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This is not exactly a news flash for long-time Californians. But scientists are starting to put more numbers on the inevitability that we all live with.\u003cbr>\n[contextly_sidebar id=”75eb0649d1156d7ece36bc7630c70ad7″]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>David Schwartz, U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, \u003ca title=\"Q-Forum - show\" href=\"http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201403120930\">told listeners to KQED’s Forum program\u003c/a> that there’s a 63 percent chance of a major quake on the San Andreas Fault sometime in the next 22 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Apparently that’s not enough to worry about, so Schwartz was joined on the program by \u003ca title=\"Am Scientist - bio\" href=\"https://www.americanscientist.org/authors/detail/john-dvorak\">John Dvorak\u003c/a>, author of “\u003ca title=\"Kirkus - review\" href=\"https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/john-dvorak/earthquake-storms/\">Earthquake Storms: The Fascinating History and Volatile Future of the San Andreas Fault\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘Earthquakes are not random events.’\u003ccite>John Dvorak, Geologist\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“Earthquakes are not random events,” said Dvorak, a former USGS scientist. “Earthquakes are clustered in time and space.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said the 1906 San Francisco quake represented a break along the northern section of the San Andreas Fault. A middle section north of Los Angeles broke in 1857, “but that southern part, south of Palm Springs, that hasn’t broken since 1680,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Contrary to the popular conception that a quake releases pressure along the fault, thus postponing the next temblor, Dvorak said the likelihood of a second quake rises with the first one. During any given three-day span, he said the odds of a magnitude 7 or larger quake are about 1:100,000 in California. But when a magnitude 7 earthquake occurs, he said the odds of another one at least as big in the next three days go to about 1-in-10.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You don’t need to panic,” said Dvorak. “You just need to have a heightened awareness that the ground could shake again soon.” Schwartz agreed that we can look forward to a whole lotta shakin’ going on. “We’ve got a lot of earthquakes ahead of us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And behind us. Schwartz said that seismologists have a “pretty complete record” going back to about 1600 and that we’ve been enjoying an eerily quiet interval. The hundred years or so starting around 1680, “literally every fault in the Bay Area” produced large earthquakes, releasing “almost as much energy as the 1906 earthquake.” After that, Schwartz said things went relatively quiet until the “Big One” in April, 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”5878627d97357ce29aa9a7578c08516a”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Schwartz said the worst-case scenario for Northern California would be a major break along the East Bay’s \u003ca title=\"Wiki - Hayward Fault\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayward_Fault_Zone\">Hayward Fault\u003c/a> or its neighbor to the north, the Rodgers Creek Fault. “There are two million people who fundamentally live right on top of it,” he said. “We’ve never had a major earthquake in the center of a modern U.S. city and we just really don’t know what’s going to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fracking Opponents Point to Seismic Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, three groups that oppose fracking in California released \u003ca title=\"Shaky Ground - main\" href=\"http://www.shakyground.org/\">a report\u003c/a> warning that a boom in the practice would pose a serious seismic risk to “millions of Californians.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fracking is shorthand for hydraulic fracturing, the technique that uses fluids under high pressure to loosen up oil and gas formations underground. Drilling companies also re-inject wastewater back into the ground, which has been shown to produce minor seismic activity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report appears to be largely a mapping exercise, which shows more than half of California’s “active and new” wastewater injection wells within 10 miles of faults that have been active within the last 200 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>None of the authors are seismologists. Patrick Sullivan, a spokesman for the Center for Biological Diversity, one of the three collaborating organizations, said that the authors consulted with seismologists at the University of California. He also cited recent reports of \u003ca title=\"USGS - release\" href=\"http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3710#.UyIc3s4QORU\">increased shaking in Oklahoma\u003c/a>, where scientists are “evaluating possible links” to oil and gas operations. Fracking has recently been suspected of triggering \u003ca title=\"NYT - post\" href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/us/ohio-looks-at-whether-fracking-led-to-2-quakes.html?hpw&rref=science&_r=0\">tremors in Ohio.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Tsunami Threat Varies\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many have pondered why last Sunday’s \u003ca title=\"Times-Standard - post\" href=\"http://www.times-standard.com/breakingnews/ci_25312898/location-sundays-6-9-quake-reduced-impact-north\">6.7 quake off the Northern California coast\u003c/a> did not produce giant, devastating waves. Schwartz explained that tsunamis are produced by the displacement of the sea floor. “That requires sort of an up-and-down movement,” he told listeners. “This was a strike-slip fault, where the movement is lateral, side-to-side, so it really doesn’t affect the sea bottom.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz also said the temblor was relatively small for that area, citing five other events within 50 miles, bigger than magnitude 7, since about 1900. But he added that smaller events can trigger tsunamis if they cause underwater landslides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both Schwartz and Dvorak agreed on the need for an earthquake warning system in California, but advised not to look to your dog for guidance in the meantime. “There’s no scientific evidence that animals can sense earthquakes before they happen,” says Dvorak.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"And some say that a fracking boom in California will raise the ante.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704934020,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":21,"wordCount":856},"headData":{"title":"California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us' | KQED","description":"And some say that a fracking boom in California will raise the ante.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us'","datePublished":"2014-03-14T13:00:18.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:47:00.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/15325/california-shakin-weve-got-a-lot-of-earthquakes-ahead-of-us","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15346\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15346\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/deg00013.jpg\" alt=\"The 1906 earthquake (USGS)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A woman surveys earthquake damage following the 1906 San Francisco quake. (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This is not exactly a news flash for long-time Californians. But scientists are starting to put more numbers on the inevitability that we all live with.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>David Schwartz, U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, \u003ca title=\"Q-Forum - show\" href=\"http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201403120930\">told listeners to KQED’s Forum program\u003c/a> that there’s a 63 percent chance of a major quake on the San Andreas Fault sometime in the next 22 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Apparently that’s not enough to worry about, so Schwartz was joined on the program by \u003ca title=\"Am Scientist - bio\" href=\"https://www.americanscientist.org/authors/detail/john-dvorak\">John Dvorak\u003c/a>, author of “\u003ca title=\"Kirkus - review\" href=\"https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/john-dvorak/earthquake-storms/\">Earthquake Storms: The Fascinating History and Volatile Future of the San Andreas Fault\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘Earthquakes are not random events.’\u003ccite>John Dvorak, Geologist\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“Earthquakes are not random events,” said Dvorak, a former USGS scientist. “Earthquakes are clustered in time and space.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said the 1906 San Francisco quake represented a break along the northern section of the San Andreas Fault. A middle section north of Los Angeles broke in 1857, “but that southern part, south of Palm Springs, that hasn’t broken since 1680,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Contrary to the popular conception that a quake releases pressure along the fault, thus postponing the next temblor, Dvorak said the likelihood of a second quake rises with the first one. During any given three-day span, he said the odds of a magnitude 7 or larger quake are about 1:100,000 in California. But when a magnitude 7 earthquake occurs, he said the odds of another one at least as big in the next three days go to about 1-in-10.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You don’t need to panic,” said Dvorak. “You just need to have a heightened awareness that the ground could shake again soon.” Schwartz agreed that we can look forward to a whole lotta shakin’ going on. “We’ve got a lot of earthquakes ahead of us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And behind us. Schwartz said that seismologists have a “pretty complete record” going back to about 1600 and that we’ve been enjoying an eerily quiet interval. The hundred years or so starting around 1680, “literally every fault in the Bay Area” produced large earthquakes, releasing “almost as much energy as the 1906 earthquake.” After that, Schwartz said things went relatively quiet until the “Big One” in April, 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Schwartz said the worst-case scenario for Northern California would be a major break along the East Bay’s \u003ca title=\"Wiki - Hayward Fault\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayward_Fault_Zone\">Hayward Fault\u003c/a> or its neighbor to the north, the Rodgers Creek Fault. “There are two million people who fundamentally live right on top of it,” he said. “We’ve never had a major earthquake in the center of a modern U.S. city and we just really don’t know what’s going to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fracking Opponents Point to Seismic Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, three groups that oppose fracking in California released \u003ca title=\"Shaky Ground - main\" href=\"http://www.shakyground.org/\">a report\u003c/a> warning that a boom in the practice would pose a serious seismic risk to “millions of Californians.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fracking is shorthand for hydraulic fracturing, the technique that uses fluids under high pressure to loosen up oil and gas formations underground. Drilling companies also re-inject wastewater back into the ground, which has been shown to produce minor seismic activity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report appears to be largely a mapping exercise, which shows more than half of California’s “active and new” wastewater injection wells within 10 miles of faults that have been active within the last 200 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>None of the authors are seismologists. Patrick Sullivan, a spokesman for the Center for Biological Diversity, one of the three collaborating organizations, said that the authors consulted with seismologists at the University of California. He also cited recent reports of \u003ca title=\"USGS - release\" href=\"http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3710#.UyIc3s4QORU\">increased shaking in Oklahoma\u003c/a>, where scientists are “evaluating possible links” to oil and gas operations. Fracking has recently been suspected of triggering \u003ca title=\"NYT - post\" href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/us/ohio-looks-at-whether-fracking-led-to-2-quakes.html?hpw&rref=science&_r=0\">tremors in Ohio.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Tsunami Threat Varies\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many have pondered why last Sunday’s \u003ca title=\"Times-Standard - post\" href=\"http://www.times-standard.com/breakingnews/ci_25312898/location-sundays-6-9-quake-reduced-impact-north\">6.7 quake off the Northern California coast\u003c/a> did not produce giant, devastating waves. Schwartz explained that tsunamis are produced by the displacement of the sea floor. “That requires sort of an up-and-down movement,” he told listeners. “This was a strike-slip fault, where the movement is lateral, side-to-side, so it really doesn’t affect the sea bottom.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz also said the temblor was relatively small for that area, citing five other events within 50 miles, bigger than magnitude 7, since about 1900. But he added that smaller events can trigger tsunamis if they cause underwater landslides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both Schwartz and Dvorak agreed on the need for an earthquake warning system in California, but advised not to look to your dog for guidance in the meantime. “There’s no scientific evidence that animals can sense earthquakes before they happen,” says Dvorak.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/15325/california-shakin-weve-got-a-lot-of-earthquakes-ahead-of-us","authors":["221"],"categories":["science_38","science_40"],"tags":["science_427","science_429","science_654","science_546","science_550"],"featImg":"science_15346","label":"science"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. 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You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. As a non-partisan forum, The Club brings to the public airwaves diverse viewpoints on important topics. The Club's weekly radio broadcast - the oldest in the U.S., dating back to 1924 - is carried across the nation on public radio stations and is now podcasting. Our website archive features audio of our recent programs, as well as selected speeches from our long and distinguished history. This podcast feed is usually updated twice a week and is always un-edited.","airtime":"THU 10pm, FRI 1am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Commonwealth-Club-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.commonwealthclub.org/podcasts","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Commonwealth Club of California"},"link":"/radio/program/commonwealth-club","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/commonwealth-club-of-california-podcast/id976334034?mt=2","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5jb21tb253ZWFsdGhjbHViLm9yZy9hdWRpby9wb2RjYXN0L3dlZWtseS54bWw","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/Commonwealth-Club-of-California-p1060/"}},"considerthis":{"id":"considerthis","title":"Consider This","tagline":"Make sense of the day","info":"Make sense of the day. Every weekday afternoon, Consider This helps you consider the major stories of the day in less than 15 minutes, featuring the reporting and storytelling resources of NPR. Plus, KQED’s Bianca Taylor brings you the local KQED news you need to know.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Consider-This-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"Consider This from NPR and KQED","officialWebsiteLink":"/podcasts/considerthis","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"7"},"link":"/podcasts/considerthis","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1503226625?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/coronavirusdaily","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5ucHIub3JnLzUxMDM1NS9wb2RjYXN0LnhtbA","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3Z6JdCS2d0eFEpXHKI6WqH"}},"forum":{"id":"forum","title":"Forum","tagline":"The conversation starts here","info":"KQED’s live call-in program discussing local, state, national and international issues, as well as in-depth interviews.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9am-11am, 10pm-11pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Forum-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED Forum with Mina Kim and Alexis Madrigal","officialWebsiteLink":"/forum","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"8"},"link":"/forum","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/kqeds-forum/id73329719","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM5NTU3MzgxNjMz","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/432307980/forum","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqedfm-kqeds-forum-podcast","rss":"https://feeds.megaphone.fm/KQINC9557381633"}},"freakonomics-radio":{"id":"freakonomics-radio","title":"Freakonomics Radio","info":"Freakonomics Radio is a one-hour award-winning podcast and public-radio project hosted by Stephen Dubner, with co-author Steve Levitt as a regular guest. 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You can also visit the MindShift website for episodes and supplemental blog posts or tweet us \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/MindShiftKQED\">@MindShiftKQED\u003c/a> or visit us at \u003ca href=\"/mindshift\">MindShift.KQED.org\u003c/a>","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Mindshift-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED MindShift: How We Will Learn","officialWebsiteLink":"/mindshift/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"2"},"link":"/podcasts/mindshift","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mindshift-podcast/id1078765985","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM1NzY0NjAwNDI5","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/464615685/mind-shift-podcast","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/stories-teachers-share","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/0MxSpNYZKNprFLCl7eEtyx"}},"morning-edition":{"id":"morning-edition","title":"Morning Edition","info":"\u003cem>Morning Edition\u003c/em> takes listeners around the country and the world with multi-faceted stories and commentaries every weekday. Hosts Steve Inskeep, David Greene and Rachel Martin bring you the latest breaking news and features to prepare you for the day.","airtime":"MON-FRI 3am-9am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Morning-Edition-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.npr.org/programs/morning-edition/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/morning-edition"},"onourwatch":{"id":"onourwatch","title":"On Our Watch","tagline":"Police secrets, unsealed","info":"For decades, the process for how police police themselves has been inconsistent – if not opaque. In some states, like California, these proceedings were completely hidden. After a new police transparency law unsealed scores of internal affairs files, our reporters set out to examine these cases and the shadow world of police discipline. 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