Can a 7.8 Earthquake Hit the Bay Area? Here's the Science Behind It
Prepping for the Next Big Quake: One Hour a Day, Four Days
Do Little Earthquakes Mean the Big One Is Close at Hand?
Are You in the Severe Damage Zone for the Bay Area's Next Big Earthquake?
Hayward Fault Is More Dangerous Than We Knew
Two Faults Could Make One Big Earthquake
California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us'
The Science of California's Seismic Pests, or Earthquake "Swarms"
How California's Warping Microplate Makes Its Faults Creep
Sponsored
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Prior to joining KQED Science, Sarah worked in a brand new role as Digital Marketing Strategist at WPSU Penn State.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/085f65bb82616965f87e3d12f8550931?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":"sarahkmohamad","facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"arts","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"news","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"about","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]}],"headData":{"title":"Sarah Mohamad | KQED","description":"Engagement Producer and Reporter, KQED Science","ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/085f65bb82616965f87e3d12f8550931?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/085f65bb82616965f87e3d12f8550931?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/smohamad"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"news","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"science_1981541":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1981541","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1981541","score":null,"sort":[1676064170000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"earthquake-science","title":"Can a 7.8 Earthquake Hit the Bay Area? Here's the Science Behind It","publishDate":1676064170,"format":"aside","headTitle":"Can a 7.8 Earthquake Hit the Bay Area? Here’s the Science Behind It | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>The magnitude 7.8 earthquake that rocked parts of Turkey and Syria on Monday, killing more than 23,000 people, resembles a threat that Californians could potentially face. The same type of fault runs across most of the state. Here’s the science behind these huge earthquakes and how to be prepared.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What makes a big earthquake?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Earthquakes result from a slip along a fault line, a geological term for a crack in Earth’s crust. Basically, two slabs of rock suddenly and violently slip past one another, radiating energy in all directions in the form of seismic waves that cause the shaking that people experience. The Turkey earthquake occurred along the East Anatolian fault, a \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/media/videos/strike-slip-fault\">strike-slip fault \u003c/a>— where two tectonic plates slide past each other horizontally — that measures hundreds of miles long. The portion that ruptured is at least 100 miles long. Essentially, the longer the length of the fault that ruptures, the larger the magnitude of the earthquake it produces. And the larger the population surrounding the fault lines, the more devastation is caused by the earthquake.[aside postID=news_11940413,science_1933064]“You’re not necessarily seeing stronger ground motions, but you’re seeing a longer duration of ground motion and a greater area that is exposed to the most extreme shaking just because more of the fault is involved in producing the shaking,” said Austin Elliott, a research geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earthquake Science Center based in Mountain View’s Moffett Field in the South Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We have several long faults in the Bay Area that are capable of producing strong earthquakes similar to what happened in Turkey. A strike-slip quake can occur along the San Andreas Fault, for example. The fault line runs 800 miles long from the Salton Sea in Southern California to Cape Mendocino through the Peninsula and San Francisco and along the North Coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Tectonically and seismologically, the earthquakes we expect in California are very similar to the earthquakes that have just happened in Turkey,” said Elliott, but, “geographically and demographically, the situation is different.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The San Andreas Fault is largely offshore as it goes north, and is distant from some of the major population centers, Elliott said. Other faults that run through cities, like the Hayward Fault, the Rodgers Creek Fault and the Calaveras Fault, are also capable of large earthquakes, potentially involving more communities in the temblor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Explaining Earthquakes - KQED QUEST\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/wDfIgoXaXis?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen>\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists have calculated about a \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\">30% chance that the Hayward Fault will “break big” (PDF)\u003c/a> — with a magnitude 6.7 event or bigger — within 30 years. The \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/programs/science-application-for-risk-reduction/science/haywired-scenario?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects\">“HayWired” scenario\u003c/a> from the USGS projects that in the aftermath of a magnitude 7.0 quake in Hayward, 2,500 people would need immediate rescue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We still consider the Hayward Fault to be the one with the highest probability of producing a large event in the Bay Area in years and decades to come,” said Roland Bürgmann, a UC Berkeley seismologist. ”The damages will be tremendous given the continuing exposure, despite all the great efforts made to mitigate the impact.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists use triangulation to find the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/quest/136760/how-to-find-the-epicenter-of-an-earthquake\">epicenter of an earthquake\u003c/a>, collecting seismic data from at least three locations. Every earthquake is recorded on numerous seismographs located in different directions.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Improved building codes and infrastructure\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area has experienced multiple large-scale earthquakes in history. The 1857 earthquake in Central California was an estimated magnitude 7.8, the 1868 Hayward Fault quake was a magnitude 6.8, and the famous 1906 San Francisco earthquake was at a 7.9 magnitude along the San Andreas Fault. In comparison, the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 was a magnitude 6.9.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Each new earthquake teaches us more about what works and what doesn’t work in constructing buildings and infrastructure,” said Elliott.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area has strong building standards and codes, some of the strictest in the world as far as seismic preparedness, he said. Its built environment is generally well-prepared to withstand the earthquakes seismologists expect in the region. That said, there are still a lot of vulnerable facilities and structures that require seismic retrofitting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It really takes building codes, planning by all the different agencies and communities involved to be more and more ready,” said Bürgmann.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Earthquake prep from a geologist’s perspective\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>To prepare for a big earthquake, Elliott recommends using sites like \u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/bayarea/\">Earthquake Country Alliance\u003c/a>, which has a wealth of preparedness information. Homeowners should make sure their homes are properly braced and bolted to their foundations. California has \u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakebracebolt.com/\">grant programs\u003c/a> to help to improve the structural stability of your home.[aside postID=science_1949019] At home, look around your space and brace things like bookshelves, televisions and furniture that could be toppled by heavy shaking. Have shoes next to your bed so that if it’s dark and there’s glass on the floors, you don’t step on it and hurt yourself. And don’t forget to prepare your \u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step3/\">emergency kit\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After an earthquake, emergency services will be swamped. So it’s important to try to be self-sufficient by having your emergency supplies in hand and knowing basic first aid. Fire departments, paramedics and hospitals are going to be spread thin. So making sure you have your first aid kit within reach is important.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stay connected with your neighbors and friends during this time. “Your neighbors or your friends may live in more vulnerable buildings than you do or vice versa,” said Elliott. “And you may want to be conscious of that as well in your planning.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"The magnitude 7.8 earthquake that rocked parts of Turkey and Syria on Monday, killing more than 23,000 people, resembles a threat that Californians could potentially face. The same type of fault runs across most of the state. Here's the science behind these huge earthquakes and how to be prepared.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1709849784,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":true,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":18,"wordCount":962},"headData":{"title":"Can a 7.8 Earthquake Hit the Bay Area? Here's the Science Behind It | KQED","description":"The magnitude 7.8 earthquake that rocked parts of Turkey and Syria on Monday, killing more than 23,000 people, resembles a threat that Californians could potentially face. The same type of fault runs across most of the state. Here's the science behind these huge earthquakes and how to be prepared.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Can a 7.8 Earthquake Hit the Bay Area? Here's the Science Behind It","datePublished":"2023-02-10T21:22:50.000Z","dateModified":"2024-03-07T22:16:24.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Science Podcast","sourceUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/science/category/science-podcast","sticky":false,"audioTrackLength":183,"templateType":"standard","featuredImageType":"standard","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1981541/earthquake-science","parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The magnitude 7.8 earthquake that rocked parts of Turkey and Syria on Monday, killing more than 23,000 people, resembles a threat that Californians could potentially face. The same type of fault runs across most of the state. Here’s the science behind these huge earthquakes and how to be prepared.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What makes a big earthquake?\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Earthquakes result from a slip along a fault line, a geological term for a crack in Earth’s crust. Basically, two slabs of rock suddenly and violently slip past one another, radiating energy in all directions in the form of seismic waves that cause the shaking that people experience. The Turkey earthquake occurred along the East Anatolian fault, a \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/media/videos/strike-slip-fault\">strike-slip fault \u003c/a>— where two tectonic plates slide past each other horizontally — that measures hundreds of miles long. The portion that ruptured is at least 100 miles long. Essentially, the longer the length of the fault that ruptures, the larger the magnitude of the earthquake it produces. And the larger the population surrounding the fault lines, the more devastation is caused by the earthquake.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"news_11940413,science_1933064","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>“You’re not necessarily seeing stronger ground motions, but you’re seeing a longer duration of ground motion and a greater area that is exposed to the most extreme shaking just because more of the fault is involved in producing the shaking,” said Austin Elliott, a research geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earthquake Science Center based in Mountain View’s Moffett Field in the South Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We have several long faults in the Bay Area that are capable of producing strong earthquakes similar to what happened in Turkey. A strike-slip quake can occur along the San Andreas Fault, for example. The fault line runs 800 miles long from the Salton Sea in Southern California to Cape Mendocino through the Peninsula and San Francisco and along the North Coast.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Tectonically and seismologically, the earthquakes we expect in California are very similar to the earthquakes that have just happened in Turkey,” said Elliott, but, “geographically and demographically, the situation is different.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The San Andreas Fault is largely offshore as it goes north, and is distant from some of the major population centers, Elliott said. Other faults that run through cities, like the Hayward Fault, the Rodgers Creek Fault and the Calaveras Fault, are also capable of large earthquakes, potentially involving more communities in the temblor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Explaining Earthquakes - KQED QUEST\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/wDfIgoXaXis?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen>\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists have calculated about a \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\">30% chance that the Hayward Fault will “break big” (PDF)\u003c/a> — with a magnitude 6.7 event or bigger — within 30 years. The \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/programs/science-application-for-risk-reduction/science/haywired-scenario?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects\">“HayWired” scenario\u003c/a> from the USGS projects that in the aftermath of a magnitude 7.0 quake in Hayward, 2,500 people would need immediate rescue.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We still consider the Hayward Fault to be the one with the highest probability of producing a large event in the Bay Area in years and decades to come,” said Roland Bürgmann, a UC Berkeley seismologist. ”The damages will be tremendous given the continuing exposure, despite all the great efforts made to mitigate the impact.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists use triangulation to find the \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/quest/136760/how-to-find-the-epicenter-of-an-earthquake\">epicenter of an earthquake\u003c/a>, collecting seismic data from at least three locations. Every earthquake is recorded on numerous seismographs located in different directions.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Improved building codes and infrastructure\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area has experienced multiple large-scale earthquakes in history. The 1857 earthquake in Central California was an estimated magnitude 7.8, the 1868 Hayward Fault quake was a magnitude 6.8, and the famous 1906 San Francisco earthquake was at a 7.9 magnitude along the San Andreas Fault. In comparison, the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 was a magnitude 6.9.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Each new earthquake teaches us more about what works and what doesn’t work in constructing buildings and infrastructure,” said Elliott.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area has strong building standards and codes, some of the strictest in the world as far as seismic preparedness, he said. Its built environment is generally well-prepared to withstand the earthquakes seismologists expect in the region. That said, there are still a lot of vulnerable facilities and structures that require seismic retrofitting.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It really takes building codes, planning by all the different agencies and communities involved to be more and more ready,” said Bürgmann.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Earthquake prep from a geologist’s perspective\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>To prepare for a big earthquake, Elliott recommends using sites like \u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/bayarea/\">Earthquake Country Alliance\u003c/a>, which has a wealth of preparedness information. Homeowners should make sure their homes are properly braced and bolted to their foundations. California has \u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakebracebolt.com/\">grant programs\u003c/a> to help to improve the structural stability of your home.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"science_1949019","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp> At home, look around your space and brace things like bookshelves, televisions and furniture that could be toppled by heavy shaking. Have shoes next to your bed so that if it’s dark and there’s glass on the floors, you don’t step on it and hurt yourself. And don’t forget to prepare your \u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step3/\">emergency kit\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After an earthquake, emergency services will be swamped. So it’s important to try to be self-sufficient by having your emergency supplies in hand and knowing basic first aid. Fire departments, paramedics and hospitals are going to be spread thin. So making sure you have your first aid kit within reach is important.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Stay connected with your neighbors and friends during this time. “Your neighbors or your friends may live in more vulnerable buildings than you do or vice versa,” said Elliott. “And you may want to be conscious of that as well in your planning.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1981541/earthquake-science","authors":["11631"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_38","science_40","science_4450","science_3423"],"tags":["science_1888","science_257","science_427","science_654","science_813"],"featImg":"science_1981584","label":"source_science_1981541"},"science_1949019":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1949019","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1949019","score":null,"sort":[1675723511000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"its-about-time-how-to-get-ready-for-the-next-emergency","title":"Prepping for the Next Big Quake: One Hour a Day, Four Days","publishDate":1675723511,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Prepping for the Next Big Quake: One Hour a Day, Four Days | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>\u003ci>Are you feeling less than secure about how ready you are for a major earthquake emergency? That’s how many of us at KQED were feeling in the wake of \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/02/06/1154818692/turkey-earthquake-syria-rescue-disaster\">the magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey and northern Syria early Monday\u003c/a>. The quake — which has so far killed more than 3,400 people — was followed by at least 55 aftershocks of magnitude 4.3 or greater, \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-30.14513,-76.28906&extent=73.92247,151.34766&sort=smallest&listOnlyShown=true&baseLayer=terrain\">according to the U.S. Geological Survey\u003c/a>.\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Back in 2019, we asked science reporter Peter Arcuni to lead us through a four-day prep, spending one hour a day. Here’s how to get ready for the next big Bay Area temblor — the one scientists say is inevitable.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>Day One was all about making an emergency plan; Days Two and Three he devoted to assembling earthquake kits. For the final day, Peter took steps to make his home more earthquake safe.\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was originally published on Oct. 16, 2019. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Let’s get started\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Earlier this month, I awoke to a sound like thunder. Was it a low-flying jet? A truck zooming past? In one, raucous jolt, the mattress, with me atop it, bobbled on its frame.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By the time I realized what was going on, the shake, rattle and roll were over.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Did you feel that?” I shouted to my wife and daughter in the other room.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>No answer. Of course, they were fine, just too caught up in playing fairies, or trolls, or maybe fairy trolls, to notice a mere 3.6 magnitude quake. But the shock was enough for me to read the writing clear across the bedroom wall: \u003cem>It was time to make an earthquake plan\u003c/em>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yeah, right.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I’ve lived in the Bay Area for 16 years, and just about annually I get a brief moment of religion when it comes to quake preparedness. But even though seismic experts offer ample evidence to remind us a big earthquake is not a matter of if, but when, I \u003cem>still\u003c/em> haven’t followed through.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[pullquote]Resources\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/library/Margin_Step_3_Infographics_Flyer.pdf\">Earthquake Country Alliance pamphlet (PDF)\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.ready.gov/plan\">FEMA Ready.gov site\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/survival-kit-supplies.html\">American Red Cross survival kit supply list\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/content/dam/redcross/atg/PDF_s/Preparedness___Disaster_Recovery/Disaster_Preparedness/Earthquake/Earthquake.pdf\">earthquake safety checklist\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>[/pullquote]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>True, I’ve got plenty of excuses. In the early days, common sense collided with a misguided feeling of invincibility. Later, it was work, marriage, grad school, fatherhood. Frankly, now in my spare time, I’d simply rather be playing Candyland with my four-year-old daughter than shopping for emergency supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In short, it’s the same old story: Life is full and busy, and preparing for disaster feels overwhelming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But guess what? Now I’ve actually been \u003cem>assigned\u003c/em> earthquake preparation by my editors, in the hope we can show that it’s possible to get ready for a disaster in a reasonable amount of time, even amidst the usual perpetual commitments of work, family and daily living.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So here are the ground rules for this challenge. For each of four days, I’m allowed to commit just one hour to earthquake preparation, using only the free time I would normally have outside work and family life.[pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\"]Yesterday, we had only a vague notion of what to do if a big earthquake hit. Today we have a solid plan we feel pretty good about.[/pullquote] Join me in finding out how ready we can be in just one hour a day, over four days. I’ll chronicle my success — or not — right here. We may not get to everything, but as I learned from the experts, doing any amount of preparation matters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One thing I realized while embarking on this project: The difference between preparedness and perpetual optimism could be the difference between life and death. In 2018, KQED’s Craig Miller \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1933064/map-are-you-in-the-severe-damage-zone-for-the-bay-areas-next-big-earthquake\">wrote a story about the Hayward Fault\u003c/a>, which runs 40 miles through the East Bay’s most densely populated areas and could produce the proverbial Big One at any time:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>The U.S. Geological Survey projects that in the aftermath of a magnitude 7.0 quake on the Hayward, 2,500 people would need immediate rescue. Serious questions remain about whether emergency responders could get to everyone’s aid, given that roads are likely to be blocked and water for fighting fires cut off in many areas — possibly for weeks or months.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>“In terms of exposure of hospitals, schools, lifelines, it’s really unequaled,” said UC Berkeley seismologist Roland Burgmann.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So … this is a not just an assignment for a journalist, it’s an assignment for \u003cem>everybody\u003c/em>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[audio src=\"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2019/10/ArcuniEarthquakePrep.mp3\" title=\"Day One: Make a Plan\" program=\"KQED Science\" image=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_007.jpg\"]\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Day One: Make a plan\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Generally speaking, earthquake preparedness is broken into three categories:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Having survival supplies ready to go\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Safety-proofing your home\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Making an emergency plan for the earthquake and its aftermath\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>I decided to begin my four days of preparation by making an emergency plan.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brian Ferguson, with the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), says it’s one of the most important steps you can take.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think it’s a great dinner table conversation that all families should have, if there’s an emergency, here’s what we would do,” he said. “‘We would meet you at this place, we would go this way.’”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He told me there’s no one-size-fits-all blueprint, so you’ll need to tailor your plan to your own circumstances. But some guidelines apply to everybody, such as …\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Doorways are out\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1949266\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1949266\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-800x593.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"593\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-800x593.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-160x119.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-768x569.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-1020x755.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-1200x889.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Peter Arcuni, his wife, Maureen, and their daughter, Izzy, read a book after collecting all the materials for their earthquake preparedness kit. \u003ccite>(Lindsey Moore/ KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>My first conversation today was with my preschooler, Izzy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Izzy, do you know what an earthquake is?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s when the ground shakes and you have to go hide under a table.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Hide under the table. That’s a great idea — you know more than I do!”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s a widespread \u003ca href=\"https://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/climate-weather/storms/10-pieces-of-disaster-safety-advice-you-should-ignore4.htm\">myth\u003c/a> that standing in the doorway is the most protective place to be during a major quake. But most experts say, forget it. Here’s what the U.S. Geological Survey recommends:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>“DROP, COVER, AND HOLD ON. If you are indoors, when you feel strong earthquake shaking, drop to the floor, take cover under a sturdy desk or table, and hold on to it firmly until the shaking stops. If you are not near a desk or table, drop to the floor against an interior wall and protect your head and neck with your arms.”\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Got it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After we tucked the little one in, my wife Maureen and I went to the couch to write out our emergency plan. For this we decided to focus on a handful of essential items from the USGS handbook:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Locate a safe place outside of your home for your family to meet after the shaking stops.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Establish an out-of-area contact person everyone in the household can call to relay information.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Provide all family members with a list of important contact phone numbers.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Determine where you can live if you can’t stay in your home after an earthquake or other disaster. In other words: Ask friends or relatives in advance if they might be willing to put you up when the Big One hits.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Sounds like a lot. But it took us just under an hour — 56 minutes — to hash most of this out. We even called my cousin in Menlo Park, who agreed to shelter us in case we need to evacuate San Francisco. Because we appeared to have woken her from a deep slumber, I’ll need to confirm she actually \u003cem>remembers\u003c/em> what she’s gotten herself into next time I see her. \u003cem>Sorry to wake you up Carin. And, thanks!\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Final thoughts: Day One\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I admit I was feeling a bit daunted by the thought of starting this challenge. But I agreed with my wife when she said, “It was not \u003cem>so\u003c/em> bad.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yesterday, we had only a vague notion of what to do if a big earthquake hit. Today we have a solid plan we feel pretty good about. We have more to do, for sure, but this is a good start.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As Brian Ferguson from Cal OES put it: “People feel intimidated by it, but any amount of preparation will make you safer than no preparation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tomorrow for our earthquake prep challenge, I’ll go shopping — fun! — for survival supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[audio src=\"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2019/10/ArcuniPreparingBigOne.mp3\" title=\"Day Two: Earthquake Kits, or Shopping for Survival\" program=\"KQED Science\" image=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1.jpg\"]\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Day Two: Earthquake kits, or shopping for survival\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Yesterday, while my wife, Maureen, and I were mapping out our emergency plan, we took a quick inventory of our emergency supplies. That is, we rifled through the briar patch that is our hallway closet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Our key takeaways: The first aid kit was pretty depleted. Why? Because we’ve been dipping into it for everyday scrapes and burns, rendering the “emergency” in “emergency supplies” meaningless. But there were a few good items, including a hand crank AM/FM radio that triples as both a flashlight and phone charger. We also located the student survival kit purchased from my daughter’s day care.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All in all, while we had the \u003cem>beginnings\u003c/em> of an earthquake kit, we did not have an \u003cem>actual\u003c/em> earthquake kit. There were some glaring omissions, like food and water, for instance, and our organization was lacking. Considering that the USGS \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/science-application-risk-reduction/science/haywired-scenario?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects\">forecasts\u003c/a> the displacement of 77,000 to 152,000 households from a 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault, this was not good.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I decided to break my kit preparation into two sessions. First day, shopping; second day, assembling. I used the American Red Cross \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/survival-kit-supplies.html\">list of 15 essential items\u003c/a> as a blueprint for the minimum inventory of what we needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003col>\n\u003cli>Water: one gallon per person, per day; three-day supply for evacuation, two-week supply for home\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Food: nonperishable, easy-to-prepare items; three-day supply for evacuation, two-week supply for home\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Flashlight\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Battery-powered or hand-crank radio, a NOAA Weather Radio, if possible\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Extra batteries\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Deluxe family first aid kit\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Medications, seven-day supply, and other necessary medical items\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Multipurpose tool\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Sanitation and personal hygiene items\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Copies of personal documents: medication list and pertinent medical information, proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates, insurance policies\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Cellphone with chargers\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Family and emergency contact information\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Extra cash\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Emergency blanket\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Map(s) of the area\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ol>\n\u003cp>Keep in mind the American Red Cross \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/survival-kit-supplies.html\">recommends additional items\u003c/a> you should consider, like sleeping bags, work gloves and N95 masks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1949519\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1949519\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-800x598.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"598\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-800x598.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-768x574.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-1020x763.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-1200x898.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Reporter Peter Arcuni shops for survival supplies to put into his earthquake kit. \u003ccite>(Lindsey Moore/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>We already had some of the essentials, so we just needed to track down the remaining items, plus a few more we thought were important. Our shopping list included water, food, cash, first aid kit, flashlights, batteries, cell phone charging pack, local maps, hygienic items and the ever-popular all-purpose emergency standby, duct tape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For this challenge, I headed to nearby 24th Street in Noe Valley to hit the Whole Foods, Walgreens and bank, all within a two-block radius. As on the first day, I limited myself to one hour.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Timer set.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Go.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Canned goods and venison sea salt pepper bars\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The American Red Cross recommends you keep on hand at least one gallon of water per person per day, for three days. For me, my wife and daughter, that’s nine gallons. At $0.89 a gallon, I was able to cross that off the list for under 10 bucks. Felt like a pretty good deal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For nonperishable food, I started with the canned goods aisle. I homed in on soups, refried beans and tuna fish, choosing in particular the brands that had pull-off tops so I wouldn’t need a can opener. True, I had a multi-use tool, which included a can opener (of sorts), but do I want to be attempting to poke holes through cans of refried beans during an earthquake emergency? No.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Next up: granola bars. Lots of options, of course, so I went for variety, making sure to accommodate my wife’s request for those that are peanut-butter flavored. The venison sea salt pepper bars looked classy, if somewhat pricey, so I decided to indulge.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Small bills, please\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Next up was the bank for some cold, hard cash. With power and network outages likely in the event of a big earthquake or other emergency, the places where they still keep the actual money may prove to be inaccessible, and ATMs could very well go down, too. Not to mention credit card machines. So if you end up needing to pay for something, from a bottle of water to a hotel room, you are going to have to use existing cash on hand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How much? That depends on the number of people in your family and where you live, according to Brian Ferguson, from the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. Emergency experts recommend small denominations, so you won’t have to worry about getting change from stores that may not be able to give it. So I went for a mix of 20s, 10s, fives and ones. And one two-dollar bill for good luck.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Drugstore\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>I found most of my other items at the pharmacy. Medications aren’t a major issue for my family, but I picked up some extra pain reliever, antihistamine and children’s Tylenol, just in case.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you do take medications, the American Red Cross recommends having a seven-day supply, as well as a list of what they are.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Final thoughts: Day Two\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The shopping trip, when factoring in the ride to and from my house, took just about an hour and change. I was able to get most of the items on my list. Here’s where I came up short:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Local maps\u003c/strong>: These are good to keep on hand if you need to evacuate while cell networks are down. Neither Whole Foods nor Walgreens carried them, but you can find maps at \u003ca href=\"https://www.aaa.com/mapgallery/\">AAA\u003c/a> or order online.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cellphone battery charging pack\u003c/strong>: Walgreens had one, but I wasn’t sure it was right for me. So I’m planning to do some research before buying. There are \u003ca href=\"https://www.amazon.com/s?k=emergency+phone+charger&crid=2CXQDD1XT85YG&sprefix=emergency+phone+c%2Caps%2C205&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_17\">several options\u003c/a> available online.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Forgetting to check expiration on food\u003c/strong>: One could assume — and by one, I mean me — that if food is wrapped in plastic, it is nonperishable. This is not true.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While evaluating my haul my wife asked if I checked the “best by” dates on the food. I had not. We found that while the canned goods would remain edible for a number of years, about half the granola bars I picked out listed dates about six months from now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Me: But what does date that mean?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Maureen: Could we get sick?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Me: Maybe. I don’t think so. But …\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the end we removed these from the kit. Further research showed we probably would’ve been fine, even if our bars lost their flavor over time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s a breakdown from \u003ca href=\"https://www.consumerreports.org/food-safety/how-to-tell-whether-expired-food-is-safe-to-eat/\">Consumer Reports\u003c/a> on good rules of thumb for nonperishables.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But you should always check the expiration dates on your food items, and you’ll also want check your kit periodically to refresh any expired items.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In sum, it appears you can grab many of the basic necessities for a survival kit over the course of an hour or a little longer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, if convenience is a priority, both the \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/store/preparedness\">American Red Cross\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.amazon.com/s?k=earthquake+survival+kit&crid=3GMZ4T10S4KQ3&sprefix=earthquak%2Caps%2C247&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_2_9\">Amazon\u003c/a> have a variety of survival kits available for a range of prices. Consider your time and needs — this may be a good way to go.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Up next, I’ll organize my supplies into a proper earthquake kit!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[audio src=\"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/2019/10/ArcuniPreparingfortheBigOne.mp3\" title=\"Day Three: Putting Together My Earthquake Kits\" program=\"KQED Science\" image=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001.jpg\"]\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Day Three: Putting together my earthquake kit\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>A quick note about fatigue: After the first few days of this challenge, I was riding high. Emergency plan, check. Trunkload of survival supplies, yup. Then … the inevitable crash. After a full day of work, making dinner, cleaning the kitchen, bathing my kid, and putting her to bed, I was spent. So I psyched myself up, mustered all the energy I could, and … watched “The Great British Bake Off” on Netflix.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It was delightful.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’re only human. Carving out an hour on a given day may not be possible, emotionally or otherwise. So I decided to give myself credit for what I’d already accomplished and go back at it the next morning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Which I did. I started by laying out my earthquake supplies on the living room floor. Satisfying as it was to look at, I still needed to put them somewhere I could find them in a true emergency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>“Organize disaster supplies in convenient locations…Keep them where you spend most of your time, so they can be reached even if your building is badly damaged.” — Earthquake Country Alliance\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/gip-15.pdf\">U.S. Geological Survey (PDF)\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step3/\">EarthquakeCountry.org\u003c/a> provide an assortment of tips on preparing and storing your kits. Here are a few:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Use backpacks for personal survival kits because they’re easy to grab if you need to evacuate. You want one for each person in your household.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>You can keep a larger disaster kit in a plastic bin or other waterproof container. This should contain additional food and water, first aid items and other supplies, like an emergency radio, for instance, that you would need if you have to stay put for a while. This kit should also be easy to move around the house or load into a car if necessary.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Sifting through the bedroom closet, I found what I needed: a green plastic tub with a lid and handles for my household kit, and a black backpack with compartments for my to-go bag.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After packing my supplies into them, I scouted for storage locations. The bin slid nicely under the bench beside our bed, and I cleared out the bottom shelf of the hallway closet for the backpack, since it’s centrally located in the house. I then stashed some extra gallon jugs of water alongside the bag.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1949522\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1949522\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-800x545.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"545\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-800x545.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-160x109.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-768x523.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-1020x694.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-1200x817.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Organizing survival supplies is an important step in readiness planning, according to emergency experts. \u003ccite>(Lindsey Moore/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Emergency experts recommend that you also have survival kits for your car and workplace. For today, I focused mainly on the home, though I did throw water, towels and a blanket in the car. I’m considering ordering online additional prepacked kits for the car and work.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Bags for shoes and stuffed animals\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Here’s something I hadn’t thought about: Say a big earthquake hits at two in the morning. Suddenly, I’d be in the dark with broken glass and debris all over the floor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The aftermath of an earthquake is no time to wander around the house barefoot. That’s why experts recommend putting a pair of shoes or boots, plus a flashlight, in a plastic bag tied to the foot of your bed or nightstand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That ensures that you have quick access to getting something on your feet and allows you to safely get up, survey what’s happened to your home and check on your loved ones,” said Cynthia Shaw from \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/local/california/northern-california-coastal.html\">Red Cross Northern California\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For this, I used kitchen twine.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For my 4-year-old daughter, I made up a special bag to add to my to-go backpack. Emergencies can be scary, and they can also involve waiting around for long stretches of time without much to do. So USGS recommends including “comfort items, such as games, crayons, writing materials, and teddy bears” for the little ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With my daughter’s help, we picked out a soft blanket with purple butterflies on it, coloring pad, storybook and one of her favorite stuffed foxes.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Not just supplies — documents, too\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>After I took inventory and shopped for supplies, I had tracked down most of the 15 essential survival items recommended by the \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/survival-kit-supplies.html\">American Red Cross\u003c/a>, along with some additions, to populate my kit. I even found the Bay Area and California maps I was looking for in the glove box of my car.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So I’m done, right?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nope.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When putting together survival supplies, it’s easy to obsess over gear and rations. But in emergencies, information matters too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Remember these checklist items from Day Two?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 30px\">\u003ci>Item 10: Copies of personal documents: medication list and pertinent medical information, proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates, insurance policies\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 30px\">\u003ci>Item 12: Family and emergency contact information \u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Well, my wife and I had written out a list of our contacts and made sure we had them in our phones. But we didn’t make a paper copy with the actual numbers, which is important in case cell service isn’t available or you can’t charge your phone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>FEMA has a pre-made \u003ca href=\"https://www.ready.gov/kids/make-a-plan\">emergency contact form\u003c/a> you can fill out on your computer and print for your wallet, survival kits and car.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for the documents, we got as far as sorting through the file cabinet where we keep these types of things.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today I decided to fire up the old all-in-one printer-scanner-copier and take care of business. But if you’re like me, nine times out of 10 your ink cartridge is empty. Today was no exception.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So I’ve got to get that ink, find a local copy shop or ask the kind people at KQED if it’s okay to print out a few documents for a good cause.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s was my hour for today. Tomorrow, I’ll be getting out the tool box to make a few home improvements.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[audio src=\"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/2019/10/ArcuniPreparingBigOne4c.mp3\" title=\"Day Four: Securing the Home\" program=\"KQED Science\" image=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_008.jpg\"]\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Day Four: Securing the home\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>One thing I learned while researching this challenge was that most people who got hurt during earthquakes like Loma Prieta in the Bay Area and Northridge in the Los Angeles area didn’t have buildings or structures collapse on them. Many of the injuries were caused by falling objects or furniture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So for my final hour of this week’s earthquake prep, I surveyed my apartment to see what home improvements I could tackle to make it safer in the event of a big quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquake Country Alliance has a \u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step1/\">thorough guide\u003c/a> to securing your space. Here’s what to look out for:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Heavy objects hung on the wall, like mirrors or art in glass picture frames\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Loose objects stored on open shelves or bookcases which can fly through the air during a quake\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Top-heavy furniture, like dressers, bookcases or TVs that could tip over\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>In particular, experts say to look out for these potential hazards near places where you spend a lot of time: beds, couches, desks, the kids’ favorite play spaces.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After a quick perusal for hazards, I detected a big problem: the large print hanging over our couch in a glass-paned metal frame. My brother got it for us in Nashville, and it really ties the room together. But, it was either gonna have to go or be moved to a safer spot away from the sofa.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another danger zone: the dresser next to my bed, with a digital camera, ceramic mason jar and mementos, including a hefty amethyst stone, lying on top.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So I took a quick trip to San Francisco’s Glen Park Hardware, where a few helpful employees showed me some stuff I could use to lock things down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One big find was a product called Museum Wax, which is putty you stick underneath an object so it’ll stay attached to a surface. This was just the ticket for objects like my amethyst.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The store also sold furniture safety straps, which let you attach freestanding shelves and armoires to the wall. These use hook-and-eye fixtures and industrial-strength Velcro.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I left with the museum wax and a heavy-duty frame hanger that had three nail anchor points for remounting the print.\u003cbr>\n[pullquote size=\"medium\" align=\"right\" citation='Brian Ferguson, Cal OES']‘Any amount of preparation will make you safer than no preparation.’[/pullquote]At home, I lifted the frame off the wall. Its weight confirmed that I’d rather not have it crash on my head under any circumstances.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I picked a spot on the opposite wall, across from the sofa, and hammered away. Once the frame was up, I took a breather on the sofa … with a renewed sense of calm.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Final thoughts\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>That’s it for my hour-a-day earthquake readiness prep. These four days have taught me that spending just an hour here and there can make a world of difference when it comes to getting ready for the next emergency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sometimes it wore me out. But the 4.5 magnitude quake that rumbled my sofa as I wrote Monday night, and another on Tuesday, offered the jolts of motivation I needed to persevere.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s more to do, for sure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In four hours, though, I mapped out an emergency plan, prepped survival kits and made my home a safer, or at least less hazardous, place. I’ll repeat here what Brian Ferguson with Cal OES told me on the first day of this challenge:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Any amount of preparation will make you safer than no preparation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While I have your ear, let’s cram in a few final bits of advice I picked up from experts along the way:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Your emergency readiness will depend on your own circumstances. So prepare accordingly. For example, living on landfill in the Bay Area means you may want to take extra steps to secure your home; whereas living in wildfire prone areas may require different preparations. Perhaps you have a large family or pets to consider. We have just one pet, a betta fish named Emily. What would we do with her if the Big One hits? I’ll have to think on that one.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>No matter your priorities, readiness experts recommend signing up for emergency alerts. California has an early warning \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1949333/download-californias-new-earthquake-early-warning-app\">ShakeAlert app\u003c/a>. Any amount of extra time you have could save your life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And finally, make a conscious effort to put gas in your car \u003ci>before\u003c/i> the low fuel light comes on. It’ll help if you ever have to evacuate. From now on, I’m gonna try. If nothing else, it’ll make my mom happy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Science reporter Peter Arcuni prepares for an earthquake over four days, spending just an hour each day. Here's how to get ready for the next big Bay Area temblor — the one scientists say is inevitable.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704846097,"stats":{"hasAudio":true,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":118,"wordCount":4653},"headData":{"title":"Prepping for the Next Big Quake: One Hour a Day, Four Days | KQED","description":"Science reporter Peter Arcuni prepares for an earthquake over four days, spending just an hour each day. Here's how to get ready for the next big Bay Area temblor — the one scientists say is inevitable.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Prepping for the Next Big Quake: One Hour a Day, Four Days","datePublished":"2023-02-06T22:45:11.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T00:21:37.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Earthquakes","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2019/10/ArcuniEarthquakePrep.mp3","sticky":false,"audioTrackLength":183,"templateType":"standard","featuredImageType":"standard","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1949019/its-about-time-how-to-get-ready-for-the-next-emergency","parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003ci>Are you feeling less than secure about how ready you are for a major earthquake emergency? That’s how many of us at KQED were feeling in the wake of \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/02/06/1154818692/turkey-earthquake-syria-rescue-disaster\">the magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey and northern Syria early Monday\u003c/a>. The quake — which has so far killed more than 3,400 people — was followed by at least 55 aftershocks of magnitude 4.3 or greater, \u003ca href=\"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-30.14513,-76.28906&extent=73.92247,151.34766&sort=smallest&listOnlyShown=true&baseLayer=terrain\">according to the U.S. Geological Survey\u003c/a>.\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Back in 2019, we asked science reporter Peter Arcuni to lead us through a four-day prep, spending one hour a day. Here’s how to get ready for the next big Bay Area temblor — the one scientists say is inevitable.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>Day One was all about making an emergency plan; Days Two and Three he devoted to assembling earthquake kits. For the final day, Peter took steps to make his home more earthquake safe.\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>This story was originally published on Oct. 16, 2019. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Let’s get started\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Earlier this month, I awoke to a sound like thunder. Was it a low-flying jet? A truck zooming past? In one, raucous jolt, the mattress, with me atop it, bobbled on its frame.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By the time I realized what was going on, the shake, rattle and roll were over.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Did you feel that?” I shouted to my wife and daughter in the other room.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>No answer. Of course, they were fine, just too caught up in playing fairies, or trolls, or maybe fairy trolls, to notice a mere 3.6 magnitude quake. But the shock was enough for me to read the writing clear across the bedroom wall: \u003cem>It was time to make an earthquake plan\u003c/em>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yeah, right.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I’ve lived in the Bay Area for 16 years, and just about annually I get a brief moment of religion when it comes to quake preparedness. But even though seismic experts offer ample evidence to remind us a big earthquake is not a matter of if, but when, I \u003cem>still\u003c/em> haven’t followed through.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"Resources\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/library/Margin_Step_3_Infographics_Flyer.pdf\">Earthquake Country Alliance pamphlet (PDF)\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.ready.gov/plan\">FEMA Ready.gov site\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/survival-kit-supplies.html\">American Red Cross survival kit supply list\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/content/dam/redcross/atg/PDF_s/Preparedness___Disaster_Recovery/Disaster_Preparedness/Earthquake/Earthquake.pdf\">earthquake safety checklist\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>True, I’ve got plenty of excuses. In the early days, common sense collided with a misguided feeling of invincibility. Later, it was work, marriage, grad school, fatherhood. Frankly, now in my spare time, I’d simply rather be playing Candyland with my four-year-old daughter than shopping for emergency supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In short, it’s the same old story: Life is full and busy, and preparing for disaster feels overwhelming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But guess what? Now I’ve actually been \u003cem>assigned\u003c/em> earthquake preparation by my editors, in the hope we can show that it’s possible to get ready for a disaster in a reasonable amount of time, even amidst the usual perpetual commitments of work, family and daily living.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So here are the ground rules for this challenge. For each of four days, I’m allowed to commit just one hour to earthquake preparation, using only the free time I would normally have outside work and family life.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"Yesterday, we had only a vague notion of what to do if a big earthquake hit. Today we have a solid plan we feel pretty good about.","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp> Join me in finding out how ready we can be in just one hour a day, over four days. I’ll chronicle my success — or not — right here. We may not get to everything, but as I learned from the experts, doing any amount of preparation matters.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One thing I realized while embarking on this project: The difference between preparedness and perpetual optimism could be the difference between life and death. In 2018, KQED’s Craig Miller \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1933064/map-are-you-in-the-severe-damage-zone-for-the-bay-areas-next-big-earthquake\">wrote a story about the Hayward Fault\u003c/a>, which runs 40 miles through the East Bay’s most densely populated areas and could produce the proverbial Big One at any time:\u003c/p>\n\u003cblockquote>\u003cp>The U.S. Geological Survey projects that in the aftermath of a magnitude 7.0 quake on the Hayward, 2,500 people would need immediate rescue. Serious questions remain about whether emergency responders could get to everyone’s aid, given that roads are likely to be blocked and water for fighting fires cut off in many areas — possibly for weeks or months.\u003c/p>\u003c/blockquote>\n\u003cp>“In terms of exposure of hospitals, schools, lifelines, it’s really unequaled,” said UC Berkeley seismologist Roland Burgmann.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So … this is a not just an assignment for a journalist, it’s an assignment for \u003cem>everybody\u003c/em>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"audio","attributes":{"named":{"src":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2019/10/ArcuniEarthquakePrep.mp3","title":"Day One: Make a Plan","program":"KQED Science","image":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_007.jpg","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Day One: Make a plan\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Generally speaking, earthquake preparedness is broken into three categories:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Having survival supplies ready to go\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Safety-proofing your home\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Making an emergency plan for the earthquake and its aftermath\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>I decided to begin my four days of preparation by making an emergency plan.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Brian Ferguson, with the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), says it’s one of the most important steps you can take.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I think it’s a great dinner table conversation that all families should have, if there’s an emergency, here’s what we would do,” he said. “‘We would meet you at this place, we would go this way.’”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He told me there’s no one-size-fits-all blueprint, so you’ll need to tailor your plan to your own circumstances. But some guidelines apply to everybody, such as …\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Doorways are out\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1949266\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1949266\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-800x593.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"593\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-800x593.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-160x119.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-768x569.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-1020x755.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004-1200x889.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_004.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Peter Arcuni, his wife, Maureen, and their daughter, Izzy, read a book after collecting all the materials for their earthquake preparedness kit. \u003ccite>(Lindsey Moore/ KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>My first conversation today was with my preschooler, Izzy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Izzy, do you know what an earthquake is?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s when the ground shakes and you have to go hide under a table.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Hide under the table. That’s a great idea — you know more than I do!”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s a widespread \u003ca href=\"https://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/climate-weather/storms/10-pieces-of-disaster-safety-advice-you-should-ignore4.htm\">myth\u003c/a> that standing in the doorway is the most protective place to be during a major quake. But most experts say, forget it. Here’s what the U.S. Geological Survey recommends:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>“DROP, COVER, AND HOLD ON. If you are indoors, when you feel strong earthquake shaking, drop to the floor, take cover under a sturdy desk or table, and hold on to it firmly until the shaking stops. If you are not near a desk or table, drop to the floor against an interior wall and protect your head and neck with your arms.”\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Got it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After we tucked the little one in, my wife Maureen and I went to the couch to write out our emergency plan. For this we decided to focus on a handful of essential items from the USGS handbook:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Locate a safe place outside of your home for your family to meet after the shaking stops.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Establish an out-of-area contact person everyone in the household can call to relay information.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Provide all family members with a list of important contact phone numbers.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Determine where you can live if you can’t stay in your home after an earthquake or other disaster. In other words: Ask friends or relatives in advance if they might be willing to put you up when the Big One hits.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Sounds like a lot. But it took us just under an hour — 56 minutes — to hash most of this out. We even called my cousin in Menlo Park, who agreed to shelter us in case we need to evacuate San Francisco. Because we appeared to have woken her from a deep slumber, I’ll need to confirm she actually \u003cem>remembers\u003c/em> what she’s gotten herself into next time I see her. \u003cem>Sorry to wake you up Carin. And, thanks!\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Final thoughts: Day One\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I admit I was feeling a bit daunted by the thought of starting this challenge. But I agreed with my wife when she said, “It was not \u003cem>so\u003c/em> bad.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Yesterday, we had only a vague notion of what to do if a big earthquake hit. Today we have a solid plan we feel pretty good about. We have more to do, for sure, but this is a good start.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As Brian Ferguson from Cal OES put it: “People feel intimidated by it, but any amount of preparation will make you safer than no preparation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Tomorrow for our earthquake prep challenge, I’ll go shopping — fun! — for survival supplies.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"audio","attributes":{"named":{"src":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2019/10/ArcuniPreparingBigOne.mp3","title":"Day Two: Earthquake Kits, or Shopping for Survival","program":"KQED Science","image":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1.jpg","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Day Two: Earthquake kits, or shopping for survival\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Yesterday, while my wife, Maureen, and I were mapping out our emergency plan, we took a quick inventory of our emergency supplies. That is, we rifled through the briar patch that is our hallway closet.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Our key takeaways: The first aid kit was pretty depleted. Why? Because we’ve been dipping into it for everyday scrapes and burns, rendering the “emergency” in “emergency supplies” meaningless. But there were a few good items, including a hand crank AM/FM radio that triples as both a flashlight and phone charger. We also located the student survival kit purchased from my daughter’s day care.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>All in all, while we had the \u003cem>beginnings\u003c/em> of an earthquake kit, we did not have an \u003cem>actual\u003c/em> earthquake kit. There were some glaring omissions, like food and water, for instance, and our organization was lacking. Considering that the USGS \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/science-application-risk-reduction/science/haywired-scenario?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects\">forecasts\u003c/a> the displacement of 77,000 to 152,000 households from a 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault, this was not good.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I decided to break my kit preparation into two sessions. First day, shopping; second day, assembling. I used the American Red Cross \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/survival-kit-supplies.html\">list of 15 essential items\u003c/a> as a blueprint for the minimum inventory of what we needed.\u003c/p>\n\u003col>\n\u003cli>Water: one gallon per person, per day; three-day supply for evacuation, two-week supply for home\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Food: nonperishable, easy-to-prepare items; three-day supply for evacuation, two-week supply for home\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Flashlight\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Battery-powered or hand-crank radio, a NOAA Weather Radio, if possible\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Extra batteries\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Deluxe family first aid kit\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Medications, seven-day supply, and other necessary medical items\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Multipurpose tool\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Sanitation and personal hygiene items\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Copies of personal documents: medication list and pertinent medical information, proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates, insurance policies\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Cellphone with chargers\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Family and emergency contact information\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Extra cash\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Emergency blanket\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Map(s) of the area\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ol>\n\u003cp>Keep in mind the American Red Cross \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/survival-kit-supplies.html\">recommends additional items\u003c/a> you should consider, like sleeping bags, work gloves and N95 masks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1949519\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1949519\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-800x598.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"598\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-800x598.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-768x574.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-1020x763.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1-1200x898.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/EarthquakePrep_001-1.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Reporter Peter Arcuni shops for survival supplies to put into his earthquake kit. \u003ccite>(Lindsey Moore/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>We already had some of the essentials, so we just needed to track down the remaining items, plus a few more we thought were important. Our shopping list included water, food, cash, first aid kit, flashlights, batteries, cell phone charging pack, local maps, hygienic items and the ever-popular all-purpose emergency standby, duct tape.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For this challenge, I headed to nearby 24th Street in Noe Valley to hit the Whole Foods, Walgreens and bank, all within a two-block radius. As on the first day, I limited myself to one hour.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Timer set.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Go.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Canned goods and venison sea salt pepper bars\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The American Red Cross recommends you keep on hand at least one gallon of water per person per day, for three days. For me, my wife and daughter, that’s nine gallons. At $0.89 a gallon, I was able to cross that off the list for under 10 bucks. Felt like a pretty good deal.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For nonperishable food, I started with the canned goods aisle. I homed in on soups, refried beans and tuna fish, choosing in particular the brands that had pull-off tops so I wouldn’t need a can opener. True, I had a multi-use tool, which included a can opener (of sorts), but do I want to be attempting to poke holes through cans of refried beans during an earthquake emergency? No.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Next up: granola bars. Lots of options, of course, so I went for variety, making sure to accommodate my wife’s request for those that are peanut-butter flavored. The venison sea salt pepper bars looked classy, if somewhat pricey, so I decided to indulge.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Small bills, please\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Next up was the bank for some cold, hard cash. With power and network outages likely in the event of a big earthquake or other emergency, the places where they still keep the actual money may prove to be inaccessible, and ATMs could very well go down, too. Not to mention credit card machines. So if you end up needing to pay for something, from a bottle of water to a hotel room, you are going to have to use existing cash on hand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How much? That depends on the number of people in your family and where you live, according to Brian Ferguson, from the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. Emergency experts recommend small denominations, so you won’t have to worry about getting change from stores that may not be able to give it. So I went for a mix of 20s, 10s, fives and ones. And one two-dollar bill for good luck.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Drugstore\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>I found most of my other items at the pharmacy. Medications aren’t a major issue for my family, but I picked up some extra pain reliever, antihistamine and children’s Tylenol, just in case.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If you do take medications, the American Red Cross recommends having a seven-day supply, as well as a list of what they are.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Final thoughts: Day Two\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>The shopping trip, when factoring in the ride to and from my house, took just about an hour and change. I was able to get most of the items on my list. Here’s where I came up short:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Local maps\u003c/strong>: These are good to keep on hand if you need to evacuate while cell networks are down. Neither Whole Foods nor Walgreens carried them, but you can find maps at \u003ca href=\"https://www.aaa.com/mapgallery/\">AAA\u003c/a> or order online.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Cellphone battery charging pack\u003c/strong>: Walgreens had one, but I wasn’t sure it was right for me. So I’m planning to do some research before buying. There are \u003ca href=\"https://www.amazon.com/s?k=emergency+phone+charger&crid=2CXQDD1XT85YG&sprefix=emergency+phone+c%2Caps%2C205&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_17\">several options\u003c/a> available online.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Forgetting to check expiration on food\u003c/strong>: One could assume — and by one, I mean me — that if food is wrapped in plastic, it is nonperishable. This is not true.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While evaluating my haul my wife asked if I checked the “best by” dates on the food. I had not. We found that while the canned goods would remain edible for a number of years, about half the granola bars I picked out listed dates about six months from now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Me: But what does date that mean?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Maureen: Could we get sick?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Me: Maybe. I don’t think so. But …\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the end we removed these from the kit. Further research showed we probably would’ve been fine, even if our bars lost their flavor over time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here’s a breakdown from \u003ca href=\"https://www.consumerreports.org/food-safety/how-to-tell-whether-expired-food-is-safe-to-eat/\">Consumer Reports\u003c/a> on good rules of thumb for nonperishables.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But you should always check the expiration dates on your food items, and you’ll also want check your kit periodically to refresh any expired items.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In sum, it appears you can grab many of the basic necessities for a survival kit over the course of an hour or a little longer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>However, if convenience is a priority, both the \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/store/preparedness\">American Red Cross\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.amazon.com/s?k=earthquake+survival+kit&crid=3GMZ4T10S4KQ3&sprefix=earthquak%2Caps%2C247&ref=nb_sb_ss_i_2_9\">Amazon\u003c/a> have a variety of survival kits available for a range of prices. Consider your time and needs — this may be a good way to go.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Up next, I’ll organize my supplies into a proper earthquake kit!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"audio","attributes":{"named":{"src":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/2019/10/ArcuniPreparingfortheBigOne.mp3","title":"Day Three: Putting Together My Earthquake Kits","program":"KQED Science","image":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001.jpg","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Day Three: Putting together my earthquake kit\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>A quick note about fatigue: After the first few days of this challenge, I was riding high. Emergency plan, check. Trunkload of survival supplies, yup. Then … the inevitable crash. After a full day of work, making dinner, cleaning the kitchen, bathing my kid, and putting her to bed, I was spent. So I psyched myself up, mustered all the energy I could, and … watched “The Great British Bake Off” on Netflix.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It was delightful.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We’re only human. Carving out an hour on a given day may not be possible, emotionally or otherwise. So I decided to give myself credit for what I’d already accomplished and go back at it the next morning.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Which I did. I started by laying out my earthquake supplies on the living room floor. Satisfying as it was to look at, I still needed to put them somewhere I could find them in a true emergency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>“Organize disaster supplies in convenient locations…Keep them where you spend most of your time, so they can be reached even if your building is badly damaged.” — Earthquake Country Alliance\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/gip-15.pdf\">U.S. Geological Survey (PDF)\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step3/\">EarthquakeCountry.org\u003c/a> provide an assortment of tips on preparing and storing your kits. Here are a few:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Use backpacks for personal survival kits because they’re easy to grab if you need to evacuate. You want one for each person in your household.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>You can keep a larger disaster kit in a plastic bin or other waterproof container. This should contain additional food and water, first aid items and other supplies, like an emergency radio, for instance, that you would need if you have to stay put for a while. This kit should also be easy to move around the house or load into a car if necessary.\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Sifting through the bedroom closet, I found what I needed: a green plastic tub with a lid and handles for my household kit, and a black backpack with compartments for my to-go bag.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After packing my supplies into them, I scouted for storage locations. The bin slid nicely under the bench beside our bed, and I cleared out the bottom shelf of the hallway closet for the backpack, since it’s centrally located in the house. I then stashed some extra gallon jugs of water alongside the bag.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1949522\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1949522\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-800x545.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"545\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-800x545.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-160x109.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-768x523.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-1020x694.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001-1200x817.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_001.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Organizing survival supplies is an important step in readiness planning, according to emergency experts. \u003ccite>(Lindsey Moore/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Emergency experts recommend that you also have survival kits for your car and workplace. For today, I focused mainly on the home, though I did throw water, towels and a blanket in the car. I’m considering ordering online additional prepacked kits for the car and work.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Bags for shoes and stuffed animals\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Here’s something I hadn’t thought about: Say a big earthquake hits at two in the morning. Suddenly, I’d be in the dark with broken glass and debris all over the floor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The aftermath of an earthquake is no time to wander around the house barefoot. That’s why experts recommend putting a pair of shoes or boots, plus a flashlight, in a plastic bag tied to the foot of your bed or nightstand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“That ensures that you have quick access to getting something on your feet and allows you to safely get up, survey what’s happened to your home and check on your loved ones,” said Cynthia Shaw from \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/local/california/northern-california-coastal.html\">Red Cross Northern California\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For this, I used kitchen twine.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>For my 4-year-old daughter, I made up a special bag to add to my to-go backpack. Emergencies can be scary, and they can also involve waiting around for long stretches of time without much to do. So USGS recommends including “comfort items, such as games, crayons, writing materials, and teddy bears” for the little ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With my daughter’s help, we picked out a soft blanket with purple butterflies on it, coloring pad, storybook and one of her favorite stuffed foxes.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Not just supplies — documents, too\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>After I took inventory and shopped for supplies, I had tracked down most of the 15 essential survival items recommended by the \u003ca href=\"https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/survival-kit-supplies.html\">American Red Cross\u003c/a>, along with some additions, to populate my kit. I even found the Bay Area and California maps I was looking for in the glove box of my car.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So I’m done, right?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nope.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When putting together survival supplies, it’s easy to obsess over gear and rations. But in emergencies, information matters too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Remember these checklist items from Day Two?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 30px\">\u003ci>Item 10: Copies of personal documents: medication list and pertinent medical information, proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates, insurance policies\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp style=\"padding-left: 30px\">\u003ci>Item 12: Family and emergency contact information \u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Well, my wife and I had written out a list of our contacts and made sure we had them in our phones. But we didn’t make a paper copy with the actual numbers, which is important in case cell service isn’t available or you can’t charge your phone.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>FEMA has a pre-made \u003ca href=\"https://www.ready.gov/kids/make-a-plan\">emergency contact form\u003c/a> you can fill out on your computer and print for your wallet, survival kits and car.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As for the documents, we got as far as sorting through the file cabinet where we keep these types of things.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today I decided to fire up the old all-in-one printer-scanner-copier and take care of business. But if you’re like me, nine times out of 10 your ink cartridge is empty. Today was no exception.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So I’ve got to get that ink, find a local copy shop or ask the kind people at KQED if it’s okay to print out a few documents for a good cause.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s was my hour for today. Tomorrow, I’ll be getting out the tool box to make a few home improvements.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"audio","attributes":{"named":{"src":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/2019/10/ArcuniPreparingBigOne4c.mp3","title":"Day Four: Securing the Home","program":"KQED Science","image":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2019/10/Earthquakekit_008.jpg","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Day Four: Securing the home\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>One thing I learned while researching this challenge was that most people who got hurt during earthquakes like Loma Prieta in the Bay Area and Northridge in the Los Angeles area didn’t have buildings or structures collapse on them. Many of the injuries were caused by falling objects or furniture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So for my final hour of this week’s earthquake prep, I surveyed my apartment to see what home improvements I could tackle to make it safer in the event of a big quake.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquake Country Alliance has a \u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step1/\">thorough guide\u003c/a> to securing your space. Here’s what to look out for:\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>Heavy objects hung on the wall, like mirrors or art in glass picture frames\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Loose objects stored on open shelves or bookcases which can fly through the air during a quake\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Top-heavy furniture, like dressers, bookcases or TVs that could tip over\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>In particular, experts say to look out for these potential hazards near places where you spend a lot of time: beds, couches, desks, the kids’ favorite play spaces.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After a quick perusal for hazards, I detected a big problem: the large print hanging over our couch in a glass-paned metal frame. My brother got it for us in Nashville, and it really ties the room together. But, it was either gonna have to go or be moved to a safer spot away from the sofa.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Another danger zone: the dresser next to my bed, with a digital camera, ceramic mason jar and mementos, including a hefty amethyst stone, lying on top.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So I took a quick trip to San Francisco’s Glen Park Hardware, where a few helpful employees showed me some stuff I could use to lock things down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One big find was a product called Museum Wax, which is putty you stick underneath an object so it’ll stay attached to a surface. This was just the ticket for objects like my amethyst.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The store also sold furniture safety straps, which let you attach freestanding shelves and armoires to the wall. These use hook-and-eye fixtures and industrial-strength Velcro.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I left with the museum wax and a heavy-duty frame hanger that had three nail anchor points for remounting the print.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘Any amount of preparation will make you safer than no preparation.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Brian Ferguson, Cal OES","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>At home, I lifted the frame off the wall. Its weight confirmed that I’d rather not have it crash on my head under any circumstances.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I picked a spot on the opposite wall, across from the sofa, and hammered away. Once the frame was up, I took a breather on the sofa … with a renewed sense of calm.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Final thoughts\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>That’s it for my hour-a-day earthquake readiness prep. These four days have taught me that spending just an hour here and there can make a world of difference when it comes to getting ready for the next emergency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Sometimes it wore me out. But the 4.5 magnitude quake that rumbled my sofa as I wrote Monday night, and another on Tuesday, offered the jolts of motivation I needed to persevere.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s more to do, for sure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In four hours, though, I mapped out an emergency plan, prepped survival kits and made my home a safer, or at least less hazardous, place. I’ll repeat here what Brian Ferguson with Cal OES told me on the first day of this challenge:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Any amount of preparation will make you safer than no preparation.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While I have your ear, let’s cram in a few final bits of advice I picked up from experts along the way:\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Your emergency readiness will depend on your own circumstances. So prepare accordingly. For example, living on landfill in the Bay Area means you may want to take extra steps to secure your home; whereas living in wildfire prone areas may require different preparations. Perhaps you have a large family or pets to consider. We have just one pet, a betta fish named Emily. What would we do with her if the Big One hits? I’ll have to think on that one.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>No matter your priorities, readiness experts recommend signing up for emergency alerts. California has an early warning \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1949333/download-californias-new-earthquake-early-warning-app\">ShakeAlert app\u003c/a>. Any amount of extra time you have could save your life.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And finally, make a conscious effort to put gas in your car \u003ci>before\u003c/i> the low fuel light comes on. It’ll help if you ever have to evacuate. From now on, I’m gonna try. If nothing else, it’ll make my mom happy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1949019/its-about-time-how-to-get-ready-for-the-next-emergency","authors":["11368"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_38","science_40","science_4450","science_3423"],"tags":["science_1888","science_257","science_427","science_654","science_5181","science_813"],"featImg":"science_1952361","label":"source_science_1949019"},"science_1936949":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1936949","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1936949","score":null,"sort":[1548163851000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"do-little-quakes-mean-the-big-one-is-close-at-hand","title":"Do Little Earthquakes Mean the Big One Is Close at Hand?","publishDate":1548163851,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Do Little Earthquakes Mean the Big One Is Close at Hand? | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>On two straight mornings in January 2019, residents awoke to the familiar rock and roll from a\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11718873/another-morning-another-wake-up-quake-in-the-east-bay-hills\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> cluster of relatively small earthquakes\u003c/a> along the Hayward Fault, across the bay from San Francisco. It’s not the first time, nor will it be the last.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While neither the magnitude 3.4 nor 3.5 quakes broke the seismograph, the two events struck in essentially the same spot. Both had epicenters nestled in the Oakland-Berkeley Hills, just a few miles from the UC Berkeley campus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such cluster quakes always get people wondering if they mean more than the usual random jiggling. To get a read on this, we spoke to earthquake experts with UC Berkeley’s \u003ca href=\"http://earthquakes.berkeley.edu/blog/2015/10/13/weak-stresses-strong-earthquakes.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Seismology Lab\u003c/a> about what it means, if anything, when it comes to forecasting the next Big One.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to Peggy Hellweg with UC Berkeley’s Seismology Lab, there’s minor earthquake activity occurring almost continuously along the Hayward Fault, though most of it goes unnoticed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And while January’s “felt quakes” were reported as individual events, they can be thought of as belonging to the same sequence of earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I would actually group them together since they’re so close together on the fault and call one the foreshock, and then the one from Thursday morning, the main shock,” Hellweg says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What Kind of Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The trouble with terms like “foreshock” and “aftershock” is that scientists never know how to categorize one or the other until after the shaking settles down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hellweg says she wouldn’t have been surprised to see tiny quakes or even another of similar size in the days following to finish out the sequence.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you look at the history of earthquakes along this section of the Hayward Fault, there can be from one to four earthquakes felt by the people who live here,” Hellweg says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What do minor “felt quakes” foretell about the likelihood of the next Big One hitting the Hayward Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Short answer: There’s no way to know for sure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the one hand, Hellweg says, in the last 20 to 30 years, “no big earthquake has happened on the Hayward Fault associated with one of these little sequences of earthquakes.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But here’s the bad news: pressure has been building up on the Hayward Fault. It’s been more than 150 years since the\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1933064/map-are-you-in-the-severe-damage-zone-for-the-bay-areas-next-big-earthquake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> last major earthquake\u003c/a> to rattle the fault, which stretches through the most \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/hayward/\">densely populated\u003c/a> stretch of the East Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Geological studies put the average interval between big quakes on the Hayward Fault at about 140 years, give or take 50 years. Meaning the Big One could happen any day now or not in the lifetime of many middle-aged residents. Scientists who developed the \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">HayWired\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> modeling scenario\u003c/a> estimate that there’s about a one-in-three chance of a magnitude-7 quake on the Hayward within the next 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And here’s the other bad news: the oft-repeated idea that minor temblors serve to relieve pressure on the fault and lessen the chances of a major event, is a myth.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the question of whether it happens tomorrow, Hellweg says, “Do I expect it? No. Would I be surprised? No.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>https://twitter.com/thepaintgrammer/status/1085905639077928969\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Where does that leave the current state of the Hayward Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Reports from the U.S. Geological Survey suggest that damage caused by the next major quake along the Hayward Fault could be \u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-hayward-fault-20180417-htmlstory.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">catastrophic\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What concerns UC Berkeley seismologist Roland Burgmann is where recent small quakes occurred on the fault line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re right next to part of the Hayward Fault that — from the kind of research we do here at Berkeley — we know to be the part that’s fully locked,” Burgman says. “That’s the part that, when a really big earthquake — magnitude 7 or so — happens again on the Hayward Fault, it will likely rupture.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fault lines — or different portions of the same fault — can be classified as \u003ca href=\"https://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/quaternary/stories/hayward_creep.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">locked or creeping\u003c/a>. Creeping faults shift slowly over time, and may undergo smaller quakes like the ones observed this week. Locked faults, however, don’t move, causing pressure to build until a large-magnitude earthquake releases it. The Hayward Fault is considered a mixed fault line, with sections that creep and ones that don’t. The ones that don’t pose the biggest danger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This [latest] pair of events is small, but they’re right next to the sleeping beast of the Hayward Fault that we know is essentially ready to have a big earthquake today or in a couple of decades.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The danger, according to Burgmann, is that a cluster of small quakes adjacent to the locked portion of the fault could be “possible foreshocks” to a major quake. Unfortunately, he says, there’s no real way to predict this scenario.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Get those earthquake kits ready\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The takeaway here is probably already clear; Burgmann says small quakes are a good signal to get prepared — that whenever we have one, it boosts the probability of another occurring within a week by about 10 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Essentially what that means for people is whenever you feel an earthquake, that’s a good time to check on your earthquake kit.” Burgmann says. “It shouldn’t be a cause for true alarm, but it should be a reason to reassess.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And for what it’s worth: Burgmann muses that after years of studying the fault, a recent series of small shakers on the Hayward finally prompted him to buy earthquake insurance himself.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED Science Editor Craig Miller contributed to this post.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"When smaller earthquakes strike, how does it affect forecasting the next 'Big One'?","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927190,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":31,"wordCount":986},"headData":{"title":"Do Little Earthquakes Mean the Big One Is Close at Hand? | KQED","description":"When smaller earthquakes strike, how does it affect forecasting the next 'Big One'?","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Do Little Earthquakes Mean the Big One Is Close at Hand?","datePublished":"2019-01-22T13:30:51.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T22:53:10.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Science","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1936949/do-little-quakes-mean-the-big-one-is-close-at-hand","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>On two straight mornings in January 2019, residents awoke to the familiar rock and roll from a\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/news/11718873/another-morning-another-wake-up-quake-in-the-east-bay-hills\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> cluster of relatively small earthquakes\u003c/a> along the Hayward Fault, across the bay from San Francisco. It’s not the first time, nor will it be the last.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While neither the magnitude 3.4 nor 3.5 quakes broke the seismograph, the two events struck in essentially the same spot. Both had epicenters nestled in the Oakland-Berkeley Hills, just a few miles from the UC Berkeley campus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such cluster quakes always get people wondering if they mean more than the usual random jiggling. To get a read on this, we spoke to earthquake experts with UC Berkeley’s \u003ca href=\"http://earthquakes.berkeley.edu/blog/2015/10/13/weak-stresses-strong-earthquakes.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Seismology Lab\u003c/a> about what it means, if anything, when it comes to forecasting the next Big One.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>According to Peggy Hellweg with UC Berkeley’s Seismology Lab, there’s minor earthquake activity occurring almost continuously along the Hayward Fault, though most of it goes unnoticed.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And while January’s “felt quakes” were reported as individual events, they can be thought of as belonging to the same sequence of earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I would actually group them together since they’re so close together on the fault and call one the foreshock, and then the one from Thursday morning, the main shock,” Hellweg says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What Kind of Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The trouble with terms like “foreshock” and “aftershock” is that scientists never know how to categorize one or the other until after the shaking settles down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hellweg says she wouldn’t have been surprised to see tiny quakes or even another of similar size in the days following to finish out the sequence.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If you look at the history of earthquakes along this section of the Hayward Fault, there can be from one to four earthquakes felt by the people who live here,” Hellweg says.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>What do minor “felt quakes” foretell about the likelihood of the next Big One hitting the Hayward Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Short answer: There’s no way to know for sure.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the one hand, Hellweg says, in the last 20 to 30 years, “no big earthquake has happened on the Hayward Fault associated with one of these little sequences of earthquakes.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But here’s the bad news: pressure has been building up on the Hayward Fault. It’s been more than 150 years since the\u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/science/1933064/map-are-you-in-the-severe-damage-zone-for-the-bay-areas-next-big-earthquake\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> last major earthquake\u003c/a> to rattle the fault, which stretches through the most \u003ca href=\"http://seismo.berkeley.edu/hayward/\">densely populated\u003c/a> stretch of the East Bay.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Geological studies put the average interval between big quakes on the Hayward Fault at about 140 years, give or take 50 years. Meaning the Big One could happen any day now or not in the lifetime of many middle-aged residents. Scientists who developed the \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">HayWired\u003c/a>\u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> modeling scenario\u003c/a> estimate that there’s about a one-in-three chance of a magnitude-7 quake on the Hayward within the next 30 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And here’s the other bad news: the oft-repeated idea that minor temblors serve to relieve pressure on the fault and lessen the chances of a major event, is a myth.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On the question of whether it happens tomorrow, Hellweg says, “Do I expect it? No. Would I be surprised? No.”\u003c/p>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"singleTwitterStatus","attributes":{"named":{"id":"1085905639077928969"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Where does that leave the current state of the Hayward Fault?\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Reports from the U.S. Geological Survey suggest that damage caused by the next major quake along the Hayward Fault could be \u003ca href=\"https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-hayward-fault-20180417-htmlstory.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">catastrophic\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What concerns UC Berkeley seismologist Roland Burgmann is where recent small quakes occurred on the fault line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“They’re right next to part of the Hayward Fault that — from the kind of research we do here at Berkeley — we know to be the part that’s fully locked,” Burgman says. “That’s the part that, when a really big earthquake — magnitude 7 or so — happens again on the Hayward Fault, it will likely rupture.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fault lines — or different portions of the same fault — can be classified as \u003ca href=\"https://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/sfgeo/quaternary/stories/hayward_creep.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">locked or creeping\u003c/a>. Creeping faults shift slowly over time, and may undergo smaller quakes like the ones observed this week. Locked faults, however, don’t move, causing pressure to build until a large-magnitude earthquake releases it. The Hayward Fault is considered a mixed fault line, with sections that creep and ones that don’t. The ones that don’t pose the biggest danger.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This [latest] pair of events is small, but they’re right next to the sleeping beast of the Hayward Fault that we know is essentially ready to have a big earthquake today or in a couple of decades.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The danger, according to Burgmann, is that a cluster of small quakes adjacent to the locked portion of the fault could be “possible foreshocks” to a major quake. Unfortunately, he says, there’s no real way to predict this scenario.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Get those earthquake kits ready\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The takeaway here is probably already clear; Burgmann says small quakes are a good signal to get prepared — that whenever we have one, it boosts the probability of another occurring within a week by about 10 percent.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Essentially what that means for people is whenever you feel an earthquake, that’s a good time to check on your earthquake kit.” Burgmann says. “It shouldn’t be a cause for true alarm, but it should be a reason to reassess.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And for what it’s worth: Burgmann muses that after years of studying the fault, a recent series of small shakers on the Hayward finally prompted him to buy earthquake insurance himself.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>KQED Science Editor Craig Miller contributed to this post.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1936949/do-little-quakes-mean-the-big-one-is-close-at-hand","authors":["11368"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_38","science_40"],"tags":["science_257","science_427","science_192","science_3832","science_3834","science_654"],"featImg":"science_1937339","label":"source_science_1936949"},"science_1933064":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1933064","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1933064","score":null,"sort":[1539954013000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"map-are-you-in-the-severe-damage-zone-for-the-bay-areas-next-big-earthquake","title":"Are You in the Severe Damage Zone for the Bay Area's Next Big Earthquake?","publishDate":1539954013,"format":"aside","headTitle":"Are You in the Severe Damage Zone for the Bay Area’s Next Big Earthquake? | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003ch5>Vulnerable Resources Near a Ticking Time Bomb\u003c/h5>\n\u003cp style=\"line-height: 90%\">\u003cspan style=\"font-size: small\">\u003cem>The Hayward Fault is capable of producing a 7.0 earthquake over an area with hundreds of hospitals, schools, police and fire stations. A recent study found such an event would cause an estimated 800 deaths, 18,000 injuries and billions in damage. Click the arrow to view the map legend. Zoom in and click on the dots on the map to identify schools and emergency facilities near you, or use the magnifier icon to find your address. Source: USGS\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003cbr>\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Embed/index.html?webmap=cd57f9659dad4de7aea6f295f587c334&extent=-122.8791,37.1125,-121.3808,38.3452&home=true&zoom=true&previewImage=false&scale=true&search=true&searchextent=false&details=true&legend=true&active_panel=legend&disable_scroll=true&theme=light\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\n\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>October 21 marks the anniversary of the “Great San Francisco Earthquake” — but not the one you’re thinking of.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On that date back in 1868, a major quake struck on the East Bay’s Hayward Fault. The jolt reached across the Bay and caused extensive damage in San Francisco, the region’s largest city, so the name stuck.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1933234\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1344px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1933234\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: San Leandro courthouse ruins, 1868\" width=\"1344\" height=\"777\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI.jpg 1344w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-160x93.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-800x463.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-768x444.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-1020x590.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-1200x694.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-1180x682.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-960x555.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-240x139.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-375x217.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-520x301.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1344px) 100vw, 1344px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ruins of the Alameda County courthouse in San Leandro, after an earthquake on the Hayward Fault on October 21, 1868. Afterward, the county seat moved to Oakland. \u003ccite>(The Bancroft Library, UC Berkeley)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>When a bigger one came along on the San Andreas Fault in the spring of 1906, the Great-Quake moniker was reassigned. But things have changed since 1906 and the Hayward is now considered the most urbanized fault in the nation. It runs for 40 miles through the East Bay’s most densely populated areas, not to mention key infrastructure such as airports, freeways, rail lines, and a major port.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists say it’s also the most likely source for the Bay Area’s next “great quake.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The Hayward Fault is ready now,” said UC Berkeley seismologist Roland Burgmann. “It has built up all the energy it needs for a future event, so it could happen today, but it could also still wait another couple decades and then just have a somewhat larger event, because it took longer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">have calculated\u003c/a> about a 30% chance that the Hayward will “break big” — with a M6.7 event or bigger — within 30 years.\u003cb>\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/science-application-risk-reduction/science/haywired-scenario?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">“HayWired” scenario\u003c/a> from the U.S. Geological Survey projects that in the aftermath of a magnitude 7.0 quake on the Hayward, 2,500 people would need immediate rescue. Serious questions remain about whether emergency responders could get to everyone’s aid, given that roads are likely to be blocked and water for fighting fires cut off in many areas — possibly for weeks or months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In terms of exposure of hospitals, schools, lifelines, it’s really unequaled,” says Burgmann.\u003cb>\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, scientists have been trying to handicap where the fault is most likely to slip again, by mapping portions of the fault that are constantly slipping in slow-motion, or “creeping,” and portions that are “locked.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those locked portions hold the biggest quake potential because when they finally break loose, far more energy is released.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we know where the fault is locked versus creeping,” explains Burgmann, “we can much better say which areas, which neighborhoods are more strongly affected”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yZSSQmYG2E&w=560&h=315]\u003cbr>\nScientists haven’t pinned down exactly the epicenter of the 1868 quake, but are convinced that it broke on the southern segment of the Hayward Fault, which runs from Oakland, south through Fremont. The next major temblor, they conclude, is likely to be in about the same place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The USGS calculates that\u003ca href=\"https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20181168\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> as much as $80 billion\u003c/a> has gone into earthquake preparedness in the nearly three decades since the Loma Prieta quake, a M6.8 shaker that caused widespread damage throughout the Bay Area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More than half of that has gone toward shoring up transportation infrastructure and health care facilities, according to the report. Another quarter was for upgrading privately owned buildings and schools, and the rest was “to strengthen the Bay Area’s water supply, government and emergency response buildings, electric and gas lines, cultural facilities, sewer lines, data centers and non-profit buildings.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But achieving “resilience,” to use the current buzzword, is a project with no end in sight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It really takes building codes, planning by all the different agencies and communities involved to be more and more ready,” says Burgmann. “We’ll never be really ready.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Many of the East Bay's most critical health and safety services such as fire stations and hospitals are situated practically on top of the Hayward Fault, in the zone of most severe damage. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927372,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":true,"hasChartOrMap":true,"iframeSrcs":["https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Embed/index.html"],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":18,"wordCount":747},"headData":{"title":"Are You in the Severe Damage Zone for the Bay Area's Next Big Earthquake? | KQED","description":"Many of the East Bay's most critical health and safety services such as fire stations and hospitals are situated practically on top of the Hayward Fault, in the zone of most severe damage. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Are You in the Severe Damage Zone for the Bay Area's Next Big Earthquake?","datePublished":"2018-10-19T13:00:13.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T22:56:12.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Geology","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/science/2018/10/MillerHaywardQuake.mp3","sticky":false,"audioTrackLength":255,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1933064/map-are-you-in-the-severe-damage-zone-for-the-bay-areas-next-big-earthquake","audioDuration":276000,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003ch5>Vulnerable Resources Near a Ticking Time Bomb\u003c/h5>\n\u003cp style=\"line-height: 90%\">\u003cspan style=\"font-size: small\">\u003cem>The Hayward Fault is capable of producing a 7.0 earthquake over an area with hundreds of hospitals, schools, police and fire stations. A recent study found such an event would cause an estimated 800 deaths, 18,000 injuries and billions in damage. Click the arrow to view the map legend. Zoom in and click on the dots on the map to identify schools and emergency facilities near you, or use the magnifier icon to find your address. Source: USGS\u003c/em>\u003c/span>\u003cbr>\n\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Embed/index.html?webmap=cd57f9659dad4de7aea6f295f587c334&extent=-122.8791,37.1125,-121.3808,38.3452&home=true&zoom=true&previewImage=false&scale=true&search=true&searchextent=false&details=true&legend=true&active_panel=legend&disable_scroll=true&theme=light\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\">\u003c/iframe>\n\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>October 21 marks the anniversary of the “Great San Francisco Earthquake” — but not the one you’re thinking of.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>On that date back in 1868, a major quake struck on the East Bay’s Hayward Fault. The jolt reached across the Bay and caused extensive damage in San Francisco, the region’s largest city, so the name stuck.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1933234\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 1344px\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1933234\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: San Leandro courthouse ruins, 1868\" width=\"1344\" height=\"777\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI.jpg 1344w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-160x93.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-800x463.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-768x444.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-1020x590.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-1200x694.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-1180x682.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-960x555.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-240x139.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-375x217.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/10/SLCourthouse_FI-520x301.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1344px) 100vw, 1344px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ruins of the Alameda County courthouse in San Leandro, after an earthquake on the Hayward Fault on October 21, 1868. Afterward, the county seat moved to Oakland. \u003ccite>(The Bancroft Library, UC Berkeley)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>When a bigger one came along on the San Andreas Fault in the spring of 1906, the Great-Quake moniker was reassigned. But things have changed since 1906 and the Hayward is now considered the most urbanized fault in the nation. It runs for 40 miles through the East Bay’s most densely populated areas, not to mention key infrastructure such as airports, freeways, rail lines, and a major port.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists say it’s also the most likely source for the Bay Area’s next “great quake.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The Hayward Fault is ready now,” said UC Berkeley seismologist Roland Burgmann. “It has built up all the energy it needs for a future event, so it could happen today, but it could also still wait another couple decades and then just have a somewhat larger event, because it took longer.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/fs20163020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">have calculated\u003c/a> about a 30% chance that the Hayward will “break big” — with a M6.7 event or bigger — within 30 years.\u003cb>\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The recent \u003ca href=\"https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/science-application-risk-reduction/science/haywired-scenario?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">“HayWired” scenario\u003c/a> from the U.S. Geological Survey projects that in the aftermath of a magnitude 7.0 quake on the Hayward, 2,500 people would need immediate rescue. Serious questions remain about whether emergency responders could get to everyone’s aid, given that roads are likely to be blocked and water for fighting fires cut off in many areas — possibly for weeks or months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In terms of exposure of hospitals, schools, lifelines, it’s really unequaled,” says Burgmann.\u003cb>\u003c/b>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, scientists have been trying to handicap where the fault is most likely to slip again, by mapping portions of the fault that are constantly slipping in slow-motion, or “creeping,” and portions that are “locked.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Those locked portions hold the biggest quake potential because when they finally break loose, far more energy is released.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If we know where the fault is locked versus creeping,” explains Burgmann, “we can much better say which areas, which neighborhoods are more strongly affected”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutube'>\n \u003cspan class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__embedYoutubeInside'>\n \u003ciframe\n loading='lazy'\n class='utils-parseShortcode-shortcodes-__youtubeShortcode__youtubePlayer'\n type='text/html'\n src='//www.youtube.com/embed/_yZSSQmYG2E'\n title='//www.youtube.com/embed/_yZSSQmYG2E'\n allowfullscreen='true'\n style='border:0;'>\u003c/iframe>\n \u003c/span>\n \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003cbr>\nScientists haven’t pinned down exactly the epicenter of the 1868 quake, but are convinced that it broke on the southern segment of the Hayward Fault, which runs from Oakland, south through Fremont. The next major temblor, they conclude, is likely to be in about the same place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The USGS calculates that\u003ca href=\"https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20181168\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> as much as $80 billion\u003c/a> has gone into earthquake preparedness in the nearly three decades since the Loma Prieta quake, a M6.8 shaker that caused widespread damage throughout the Bay Area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More than half of that has gone toward shoring up transportation infrastructure and health care facilities, according to the report. Another quarter was for upgrading privately owned buildings and schools, and the rest was “to strengthen the Bay Area’s water supply, government and emergency response buildings, electric and gas lines, cultural facilities, sewer lines, data centers and non-profit buildings.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But achieving “resilience,” to use the current buzzword, is a project with no end in sight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It really takes building codes, planning by all the different agencies and communities involved to be more and more ready,” says Burgmann. “We’ll never be really ready.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1933064/map-are-you-in-the-severe-damage-zone-for-the-bay-areas-next-big-earthquake","authors":["221"],"categories":["science_38","science_40"],"tags":["science_257","science_3370","science_654","science_1864"],"featImg":"science_1984387","label":"source_science_1933064"},"science_1922795":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1922795","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1922795","score":null,"sort":[1524066970000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"hayward-fault-is-more-dangerous-than-we-knew","title":"Hayward Fault Is More Dangerous Than We Knew","publishDate":1524066970,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Hayward Fault Is More Dangerous Than We Knew | KQED","labelTerm":{},"content":"\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/fs20183016\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new report\u003c/a> from the U.S. Geological Survey says a major earthquake on the Oakland section of the Hayward fault could kill hundreds of people and injure thousands.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The USGS report out today examined what could happen in the likely scenario of a 7.0 quake. Similar large earthquakes have occurred on the Hayward fault every 100-220 years for nearly two millennia, and last happened 150 years ago.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The scenario imagines an earthquake centered in Oakland, happening at 4:18 p.m. on the same day as the 1906 San Francisco earthquake: today, April 18.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The quake ruptures the fault for 52 miles, from Fremont to the middle of San Pablo Bay. It causes violent shaking from Richmond to Fremont, killing 800 people from building and structural collapse and damage, and injuring 18,000 people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the scenario, roughly 2,500 people need to be rescued from collapsed buildings, and 22,000 people are trapped in elevators.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists also ran the scenario imagining people using the \u003ca href=\"https://www.shakealert.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a> emergency early warning system and found that if people actually “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” as many as 1,500 non-fatal injuries can be prevented.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p2\">The violent shaking causes soils along the San Francisco Bay to become slippery, moving like liquid, and causes landslides in the hills and mountains surrounding the bay, especially the East Bay hills.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>East Bay residents could lose water supplies for 6 weeks, and this disruption would also hamper firefighters, who could face some 400 fires from ruptured gas and electricity pipes all over the Bay Area. Thousands of people could be left homeless from the fires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report recommends three top priorities to reduce the fatalities and damages from this kind of disaster: replace old and brittle water pipes, enhance building codes, and adopt and use the \u003ca href=\"https://www.shakealert.org/\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a> early warning system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People are willing to pay more for better building codes,” Andrew Michael, geophysicist with the U.S.G.S. Earthquake Science Center in Menlo Park, said to KQED’s Forum. “I think the important thing is for people to become informed and become engaged in the process to help inform policy.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922810\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1922810 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-800x839.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"839\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-160x168.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-768x805.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-240x252.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-375x393.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-520x545.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A USGS map illustrating potential damage from a strong quake on the Hayward fault. \u003ccite>(U.S. Geological Survey)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">\n\u003ch3>\u003ca href=\"http://www.earthquakecountry.org/sevensteps/\">7 Steps to Earthquake Safety\u003c/a>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/step6wideicon.png\" alt=\"\">\u003cbr>\nLearn how to prepare at home using the 7 Steps to Earthquake Safety from the guidebook “\u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/\">Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country\u003c/a>,” written for different areas of the country and in several languages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step1\">Secure your space\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step2\">Create a disaster plan\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step3\">Organize disaster supplies\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step4\">Minimize financial hardship\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step5/\">Drop, Cover, and Hold On\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step6/\">Improve safety after earthquakes\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step7/\">Restore daily life \u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/aside>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"A new report from the U.S. Geological Survey estimates hundreds of deaths from a 7.0 quake, and offers safety and prevention tips.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927987,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":12,"wordCount":451},"headData":{"title":"Hayward Fault Is More Dangerous Than We Knew | KQED","description":"A new report from the U.S. Geological Survey estimates hundreds of deaths from a 7.0 quake, and offers safety and prevention tips.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Hayward Fault Is More Dangerous Than We Knew","datePublished":"2018-04-18T15:56:10.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-10T23:06:27.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"source":"Earthquakes","sticky":false,"path":"/science/1922795/hayward-fault-is-more-dangerous-than-we-knew","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>A \u003ca href=\"https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/fs20183016\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new report\u003c/a> from the U.S. Geological Survey says a major earthquake on the Oakland section of the Hayward fault could kill hundreds of people and injure thousands.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The USGS report out today examined what could happen in the likely scenario of a 7.0 quake. Similar large earthquakes have occurred on the Hayward fault every 100-220 years for nearly two millennia, and last happened 150 years ago.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The scenario imagines an earthquake centered in Oakland, happening at 4:18 p.m. on the same day as the 1906 San Francisco earthquake: today, April 18.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The quake ruptures the fault for 52 miles, from Fremont to the middle of San Pablo Bay. It causes violent shaking from Richmond to Fremont, killing 800 people from building and structural collapse and damage, and injuring 18,000 people.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the scenario, roughly 2,500 people need to be rescued from collapsed buildings, and 22,000 people are trapped in elevators.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Scientists also ran the scenario imagining people using the \u003ca href=\"https://www.shakealert.org/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a> emergency early warning system and found that if people actually “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” as many as 1,500 non-fatal injuries can be prevented.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp class=\"p2\">The violent shaking causes soils along the San Francisco Bay to become slippery, moving like liquid, and causes landslides in the hills and mountains surrounding the bay, especially the East Bay hills.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>East Bay residents could lose water supplies for 6 weeks, and this disruption would also hamper firefighters, who could face some 400 fires from ruptured gas and electricity pipes all over the Bay Area. Thousands of people could be left homeless from the fires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report recommends three top priorities to reduce the fatalities and damages from this kind of disaster: replace old and brittle water pipes, enhance building codes, and adopt and use the \u003ca href=\"https://www.shakealert.org/\">ShakeAlert\u003c/a> early warning system.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“People are willing to pay more for better building codes,” Andrew Michael, geophysicist with the U.S.G.S. Earthquake Science Center in Menlo Park, said to KQED’s Forum. “I think the important thing is for people to become informed and become engaged in the process to help inform policy.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1922810\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1922810 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-800x839.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"839\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-160x168.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-768x805.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-240x252.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-375x393.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/usgs_map01_caption-520x545.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A USGS map illustrating potential damage from a strong quake on the Hayward fault. \u003ccite>(U.S. Geological Survey)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003caside class=\"aligncenter\">\n\u003ch3>\u003ca href=\"http://www.earthquakecountry.org/sevensteps/\">7 Steps to Earthquake Safety\u003c/a>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/04/step6wideicon.png\" alt=\"\">\u003cbr>\nLearn how to prepare at home using the 7 Steps to Earthquake Safety from the guidebook “\u003ca href=\"https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2005/15/\">Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country\u003c/a>,” written for different areas of the country and in several languages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step1\">Secure your space\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step2\">Create a disaster plan\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step3\">Organize disaster supplies\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step4\">Minimize financial hardship\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step5/\">Drop, Cover, and Hold On\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step6/\">Improve safety after earthquakes\u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>\u003ca href=\"https://www.earthquakecountry.org/step7/\">Restore daily life \u003c/a>\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003c/aside>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1922795/hayward-fault-is-more-dangerous-than-we-knew","authors":["235"],"categories":["science_38","science_40"],"tags":["science_257","science_654","science_813","science_838"],"featImg":"science_22449","label":"source_science_1922795"},"science_30558":{"type":"posts","id":"science_30558","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"30558","score":null,"sort":[1432818010000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"two-faults-could-make-one-big-earthquake","title":"Two Faults Could Make One Big Earthquake","publishDate":1432818010,"format":"aside","headTitle":"Two Faults Could Make One Big Earthquake | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_30559\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/05/HF-CF-GE-map.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/05/HF-CF-GE-map.png\" alt=\"Where the Hayward and Calaveras faults join\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-30559\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A new study has traced the connection between the Hayward and Calaveras faults at the surface (dashed line) and deep underground (dotted line). (Alden/Google Earth)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Ask Bay Area seismologists their most worrisome earthquake scenario, and many will say it’s not a repeat of the great San Francisco quake of 1906. They don’t think that’s likely. Instead, it’s a possibility considered unthinkable not long ago. That would be a rupture that tears the full length of the Hayward fault, between Pinole and Fremont, then jumps past the end to the next fault. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The next fault to the north is the Rodgers Creek fault, running from San Pablo Bay into Sonoma County. Scientists have made scenarios for big quakes on the combined Hayward-Rodgers Creek. The damage from shaking, fires and landslides would exceed $200 billion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The next fault to the south is the Calaveras fault, running from east of San Jose past Hollister. But that combination hasn’t been modeled. Until a few years ago nobody thought this deadly combo was likely. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Where the two faults merge, geologists have mapped a complex snarl of ground fractures. The faults don’t appear to line up together well, which means they would prevent any rupture from pushing through. But our maps have been too imprecise to be certain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now UC Berkeley seismologist Estelle Chaussard has assembled the clearest picture yet of the Hayward-Calaveras merge. Her model, \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063575/abstract\">just published\u003c/a> in the journal \u003ca href=\"http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/agu/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291944-8007/\">Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/a>, simplifies the intersection while showing that deep underground, the two faults line up dangerously straight together. But the same model helps us to simulate and plan for the hazard of a combined fault rupture. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">The deep part of this combined fault is storing energy for very large earthquakes. \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Deep underground where earthquakes actually take place, the two faults join in a smooth line. But when geologists map the fault traces in this area – if they can even see them in the underbrush and landslide scars – the maps look as untidy as the edges of a torn-up newspaper. Moreover, they can’t tell which of the various fault traces is currently active. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both the Hayward and Calaveras faults are known for exhibiting \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/10/16/new-paper-outlines-updated-look-hazards-on-san-andreas-fault-system/\">creep\u003c/a> – slow, quiet motion measured in millimeters per year – but no creep measurements have been done in this rugged and remote area. (\u003ca href=\"http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/gump/people/jwatt/haycal_3d.html\">See another scientist’s earlier effort to deal with this uncertainty.\u003c/a>)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chaussard built the new model using two advanced techniques that sidestep the limits of what geologists on the ground can see. With these she could use the faults’ day-to-day activity, instead of their cryptic cracks on the ground, to draw their portrait.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>First, she found a way to measure and map creep using InSAR (\u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interferometric_synthetic_aperture_radar\">interferometric synthetic aperture radar\u003c/a>), a satellite-based technique that’s been surveying the ground with centimeter accuracy since the early 1990s. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Selecting high-quality images from 1992 to 2011, she detected the exact zones where the ground has been creeping on both the Hayward and Calaveras faults. These curving traces mark, for the first time, the direct surface connection between the two faults. She also compared slip estimates across the merge area to show that the motions on the two faults are in balance.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Second, Chaussard selected a set of repeating small earthquakes to map the exact underground contours of the fault. She employed \u003ca href=\"http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~felixw/DD.html\">double-difference earthquake location\u003c/a>, first used in 2000 on the Hayward fault, to sharpen the picture painted by these pinpricks of seismic activity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She found that shallow quakes (less than 3 kilometers deep) lined up with the curving surface connection, the last bit of the Hayward fault. Deeper ones lined up instead with a straight plane that joins the Hayward and Calaveras faults in a single mega-fault. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_30577\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 775px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/05/Image2.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/05/Image2.png\" alt=\"New model of the Hayward-Calaveras fault junction\" width=\"775\" height=\"500\" class=\"size-full wp-image-30577\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This figure from Chaussard’s paper shows on the left-hand map where repeating earthquakes (circles) and surface creep (lines) trace the southernmost Hayward fault both at the surface and at depth. On the right, her new model of the fault juncture (small square) fills in the key part of the full-size model used to simulate large earthquakes. (Chaussard/GRL)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The deep part of this combined fault is storing energy for very large earthquakes. With her new, clean images of both surface and deep activity, Chaussard built a geometric model of this crucial piece of California. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What does that mean? The U.S. Geological Survey says that an end-to-end rupture of the Hayward fault would cause an earthquake of magnitude 7.5. Adding the Calaveras to that would raise the magnitude to roughly the same size as the 1906 earthquake on the San Andreas fault. Damages from such a quake might reach $300 billion. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Until now, scientists have not been able to run realistic earthquake simulations for a Hayward-Calaveras megafault. Chaussard’s new model of their juncture will help in modeling this threatening possibility. “We hope our paper will trigger the necessary interest so that other groups start working on it,” Chaussard says.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"A new model of the deep earth east of San Jose will help earthquake scientists investigate a fearsome possibility: a major quake caused by a combined rupture of the Hayward and Calaveras faults.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704931750,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":17,"wordCount":857},"headData":{"title":"Two Faults Could Make One Big Earthquake | KQED","description":"A new model of the deep earth east of San Jose will help earthquake scientists investigate a fearsome possibility: a major quake caused by a combined rupture of the Hayward and Calaveras faults.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Two Faults Could Make One Big Earthquake","datePublished":"2015-05-28T13:00:10.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:09:10.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/30558/two-faults-could-make-one-big-earthquake","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_30559\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/05/HF-CF-GE-map.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/05/HF-CF-GE-map.png\" alt=\"Where the Hayward and Calaveras faults join\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" class=\"size-full wp-image-30559\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A new study has traced the connection between the Hayward and Calaveras faults at the surface (dashed line) and deep underground (dotted line). (Alden/Google Earth)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Ask Bay Area seismologists their most worrisome earthquake scenario, and many will say it’s not a repeat of the great San Francisco quake of 1906. They don’t think that’s likely. Instead, it’s a possibility considered unthinkable not long ago. That would be a rupture that tears the full length of the Hayward fault, between Pinole and Fremont, then jumps past the end to the next fault. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The next fault to the north is the Rodgers Creek fault, running from San Pablo Bay into Sonoma County. Scientists have made scenarios for big quakes on the combined Hayward-Rodgers Creek. The damage from shaking, fires and landslides would exceed $200 billion.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The next fault to the south is the Calaveras fault, running from east of San Jose past Hollister. But that combination hasn’t been modeled. Until a few years ago nobody thought this deadly combo was likely. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Where the two faults merge, geologists have mapped a complex snarl of ground fractures. The faults don’t appear to line up together well, which means they would prevent any rupture from pushing through. But our maps have been too imprecise to be certain.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Now UC Berkeley seismologist Estelle Chaussard has assembled the clearest picture yet of the Hayward-Calaveras merge. Her model, \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063575/abstract\">just published\u003c/a> in the journal \u003ca href=\"http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/agu/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291944-8007/\">Geophysical Research Letters\u003c/a>, simplifies the intersection while showing that deep underground, the two faults line up dangerously straight together. But the same model helps us to simulate and plan for the hazard of a combined fault rupture. \u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">The deep part of this combined fault is storing energy for very large earthquakes. \u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>Deep underground where earthquakes actually take place, the two faults join in a smooth line. But when geologists map the fault traces in this area – if they can even see them in the underbrush and landslide scars – the maps look as untidy as the edges of a torn-up newspaper. Moreover, they can’t tell which of the various fault traces is currently active. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both the Hayward and Calaveras faults are known for exhibiting \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2014/10/16/new-paper-outlines-updated-look-hazards-on-san-andreas-fault-system/\">creep\u003c/a> – slow, quiet motion measured in millimeters per year – but no creep measurements have been done in this rugged and remote area. (\u003ca href=\"http://geomaps.wr.usgs.gov/gump/people/jwatt/haycal_3d.html\">See another scientist’s earlier effort to deal with this uncertainty.\u003c/a>)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Chaussard built the new model using two advanced techniques that sidestep the limits of what geologists on the ground can see. With these she could use the faults’ day-to-day activity, instead of their cryptic cracks on the ground, to draw their portrait.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>First, she found a way to measure and map creep using InSAR (\u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interferometric_synthetic_aperture_radar\">interferometric synthetic aperture radar\u003c/a>), a satellite-based technique that’s been surveying the ground with centimeter accuracy since the early 1990s. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Selecting high-quality images from 1992 to 2011, she detected the exact zones where the ground has been creeping on both the Hayward and Calaveras faults. These curving traces mark, for the first time, the direct surface connection between the two faults. She also compared slip estimates across the merge area to show that the motions on the two faults are in balance.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Second, Chaussard selected a set of repeating small earthquakes to map the exact underground contours of the fault. She employed \u003ca href=\"http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~felixw/DD.html\">double-difference earthquake location\u003c/a>, first used in 2000 on the Hayward fault, to sharpen the picture painted by these pinpricks of seismic activity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>She found that shallow quakes (less than 3 kilometers deep) lined up with the curving surface connection, the last bit of the Hayward fault. Deeper ones lined up instead with a straight plane that joins the Hayward and Calaveras faults in a single mega-fault. \u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_30577\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 775px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/05/Image2.png\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/05/Image2.png\" alt=\"New model of the Hayward-Calaveras fault junction\" width=\"775\" height=\"500\" class=\"size-full wp-image-30577\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">This figure from Chaussard’s paper shows on the left-hand map where repeating earthquakes (circles) and surface creep (lines) trace the southernmost Hayward fault both at the surface and at depth. On the right, her new model of the fault juncture (small square) fills in the key part of the full-size model used to simulate large earthquakes. (Chaussard/GRL)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The deep part of this combined fault is storing energy for very large earthquakes. With her new, clean images of both surface and deep activity, Chaussard built a geometric model of this crucial piece of California. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What does that mean? The U.S. Geological Survey says that an end-to-end rupture of the Hayward fault would cause an earthquake of magnitude 7.5. Adding the Calaveras to that would raise the magnitude to roughly the same size as the 1906 earthquake on the San Andreas fault. Damages from such a quake might reach $300 billion. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Until now, scientists have not been able to run realistic earthquake simulations for a Hayward-Calaveras megafault. Chaussard’s new model of their juncture will help in modeling this threatening possibility. “We hope our paper will trigger the necessary interest so that other groups start working on it,” Chaussard says.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/30558/two-faults-could-make-one-big-earthquake","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_427","science_654"],"featImg":"science_30559","label":"science"},"science_15325":{"type":"posts","id":"science_15325","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"15325","score":null,"sort":[1394802018000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"california-shakin-weve-got-a-lot-of-earthquakes-ahead-of-us","title":"California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us'","publishDate":1394802018,"format":"aside","headTitle":"California Shakin’: ‘We’ve Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us’ | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15346\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15346\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/deg00013.jpg\" alt=\"The 1906 earthquake (USGS)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A woman surveys earthquake damage following the 1906 San Francisco quake. (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This is not exactly a news flash for long-time Californians. But scientists are starting to put more numbers on the inevitability that we all live with.\u003cbr>\n[contextly_sidebar id=”75eb0649d1156d7ece36bc7630c70ad7″]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>David Schwartz, U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, \u003ca title=\"Q-Forum - show\" href=\"http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201403120930\">told listeners to KQED’s Forum program\u003c/a> that there’s a 63 percent chance of a major quake on the San Andreas Fault sometime in the next 22 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Apparently that’s not enough to worry about, so Schwartz was joined on the program by \u003ca title=\"Am Scientist - bio\" href=\"https://www.americanscientist.org/authors/detail/john-dvorak\">John Dvorak\u003c/a>, author of “\u003ca title=\"Kirkus - review\" href=\"https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/john-dvorak/earthquake-storms/\">Earthquake Storms: The Fascinating History and Volatile Future of the San Andreas Fault\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘Earthquakes are not random events.’\u003ccite>John Dvorak, Geologist\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“Earthquakes are not random events,” said Dvorak, a former USGS scientist. “Earthquakes are clustered in time and space.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said the 1906 San Francisco quake represented a break along the northern section of the San Andreas Fault. A middle section north of Los Angeles broke in 1857, “but that southern part, south of Palm Springs, that hasn’t broken since 1680,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Contrary to the popular conception that a quake releases pressure along the fault, thus postponing the next temblor, Dvorak said the likelihood of a second quake rises with the first one. During any given three-day span, he said the odds of a magnitude 7 or larger quake are about 1:100,000 in California. But when a magnitude 7 earthquake occurs, he said the odds of another one at least as big in the next three days go to about 1-in-10.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You don’t need to panic,” said Dvorak. “You just need to have a heightened awareness that the ground could shake again soon.” Schwartz agreed that we can look forward to a whole lotta shakin’ going on. “We’ve got a lot of earthquakes ahead of us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And behind us. Schwartz said that seismologists have a “pretty complete record” going back to about 1600 and that we’ve been enjoying an eerily quiet interval. The hundred years or so starting around 1680, “literally every fault in the Bay Area” produced large earthquakes, releasing “almost as much energy as the 1906 earthquake.” After that, Schwartz said things went relatively quiet until the “Big One” in April, 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”5878627d97357ce29aa9a7578c08516a”]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Schwartz said the worst-case scenario for Northern California would be a major break along the East Bay’s \u003ca title=\"Wiki - Hayward Fault\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayward_Fault_Zone\">Hayward Fault\u003c/a> or its neighbor to the north, the Rodgers Creek Fault. “There are two million people who fundamentally live right on top of it,” he said. “We’ve never had a major earthquake in the center of a modern U.S. city and we just really don’t know what’s going to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fracking Opponents Point to Seismic Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, three groups that oppose fracking in California released \u003ca title=\"Shaky Ground - main\" href=\"http://www.shakyground.org/\">a report\u003c/a> warning that a boom in the practice would pose a serious seismic risk to “millions of Californians.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fracking is shorthand for hydraulic fracturing, the technique that uses fluids under high pressure to loosen up oil and gas formations underground. Drilling companies also re-inject wastewater back into the ground, which has been shown to produce minor seismic activity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report appears to be largely a mapping exercise, which shows more than half of California’s “active and new” wastewater injection wells within 10 miles of faults that have been active within the last 200 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>None of the authors are seismologists. Patrick Sullivan, a spokesman for the Center for Biological Diversity, one of the three collaborating organizations, said that the authors consulted with seismologists at the University of California. He also cited recent reports of \u003ca title=\"USGS - release\" href=\"http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3710#.UyIc3s4QORU\">increased shaking in Oklahoma\u003c/a>, where scientists are “evaluating possible links” to oil and gas operations. Fracking has recently been suspected of triggering \u003ca title=\"NYT - post\" href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/us/ohio-looks-at-whether-fracking-led-to-2-quakes.html?hpw&rref=science&_r=0\">tremors in Ohio.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Tsunami Threat Varies\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many have pondered why last Sunday’s \u003ca title=\"Times-Standard - post\" href=\"http://www.times-standard.com/breakingnews/ci_25312898/location-sundays-6-9-quake-reduced-impact-north\">6.7 quake off the Northern California coast\u003c/a> did not produce giant, devastating waves. Schwartz explained that tsunamis are produced by the displacement of the sea floor. “That requires sort of an up-and-down movement,” he told listeners. “This was a strike-slip fault, where the movement is lateral, side-to-side, so it really doesn’t affect the sea bottom.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz also said the temblor was relatively small for that area, citing five other events within 50 miles, bigger than magnitude 7, since about 1900. But he added that smaller events can trigger tsunamis if they cause underwater landslides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both Schwartz and Dvorak agreed on the need for an earthquake warning system in California, but advised not to look to your dog for guidance in the meantime. “There’s no scientific evidence that animals can sense earthquakes before they happen,” says Dvorak.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"And some say that a fracking boom in California will raise the ante.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704934020,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":21,"wordCount":856},"headData":{"title":"California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us' | KQED","description":"And some say that a fracking boom in California will raise the ante.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"California Shakin': 'We've Got a Lot of Earthquakes Ahead of Us'","datePublished":"2014-03-14T13:00:18.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T00:47:00.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/15325/california-shakin-weve-got-a-lot-of-earthquakes-ahead-of-us","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_15346\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15346\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2014/03/deg00013.jpg\" alt=\"The 1906 earthquake (USGS)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A woman surveys earthquake damage following the 1906 San Francisco quake. (USGS)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>This is not exactly a news flash for long-time Californians. But scientists are starting to put more numbers on the inevitability that we all live with.\u003cbr>\n\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>David Schwartz, U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, \u003ca title=\"Q-Forum - show\" href=\"http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201403120930\">told listeners to KQED’s Forum program\u003c/a> that there’s a 63 percent chance of a major quake on the San Andreas Fault sometime in the next 22 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Apparently that’s not enough to worry about, so Schwartz was joined on the program by \u003ca title=\"Am Scientist - bio\" href=\"https://www.americanscientist.org/authors/detail/john-dvorak\">John Dvorak\u003c/a>, author of “\u003ca title=\"Kirkus - review\" href=\"https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/john-dvorak/earthquake-storms/\">Earthquake Storms: The Fascinating History and Volatile Future of the San Andreas Fault\u003c/a>.”\u003c/p>\n\u003caside class=\"pullquote alignleft\">‘Earthquakes are not random events.’\u003ccite>John Dvorak, Geologist\u003c/cite>\u003c/aside>\n\u003cp>“Earthquakes are not random events,” said Dvorak, a former USGS scientist. “Earthquakes are clustered in time and space.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>He said the 1906 San Francisco quake represented a break along the northern section of the San Andreas Fault. A middle section north of Los Angeles broke in 1857, “but that southern part, south of Palm Springs, that hasn’t broken since 1680,” he said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Contrary to the popular conception that a quake releases pressure along the fault, thus postponing the next temblor, Dvorak said the likelihood of a second quake rises with the first one. During any given three-day span, he said the odds of a magnitude 7 or larger quake are about 1:100,000 in California. But when a magnitude 7 earthquake occurs, he said the odds of another one at least as big in the next three days go to about 1-in-10.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“You don’t need to panic,” said Dvorak. “You just need to have a heightened awareness that the ground could shake again soon.” Schwartz agreed that we can look forward to a whole lotta shakin’ going on. “We’ve got a lot of earthquakes ahead of us.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And behind us. Schwartz said that seismologists have a “pretty complete record” going back to about 1600 and that we’ve been enjoying an eerily quiet interval. The hundred years or so starting around 1680, “literally every fault in the Bay Area” produced large earthquakes, releasing “almost as much energy as the 1906 earthquake.” After that, Schwartz said things went relatively quiet until the “Big One” in April, 1906.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But Schwartz said the worst-case scenario for Northern California would be a major break along the East Bay’s \u003ca title=\"Wiki - Hayward Fault\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayward_Fault_Zone\">Hayward Fault\u003c/a> or its neighbor to the north, the Rodgers Creek Fault. “There are two million people who fundamentally live right on top of it,” he said. “We’ve never had a major earthquake in the center of a modern U.S. city and we just really don’t know what’s going to happen.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Fracking Opponents Point to Seismic Risk\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, three groups that oppose fracking in California released \u003ca title=\"Shaky Ground - main\" href=\"http://www.shakyground.org/\">a report\u003c/a> warning that a boom in the practice would pose a serious seismic risk to “millions of Californians.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fracking is shorthand for hydraulic fracturing, the technique that uses fluids under high pressure to loosen up oil and gas formations underground. Drilling companies also re-inject wastewater back into the ground, which has been shown to produce minor seismic activity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The report appears to be largely a mapping exercise, which shows more than half of California’s “active and new” wastewater injection wells within 10 miles of faults that have been active within the last 200 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>None of the authors are seismologists. Patrick Sullivan, a spokesman for the Center for Biological Diversity, one of the three collaborating organizations, said that the authors consulted with seismologists at the University of California. He also cited recent reports of \u003ca title=\"USGS - release\" href=\"http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3710#.UyIc3s4QORU\">increased shaking in Oklahoma\u003c/a>, where scientists are “evaluating possible links” to oil and gas operations. Fracking has recently been suspected of triggering \u003ca title=\"NYT - post\" href=\"http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/us/ohio-looks-at-whether-fracking-led-to-2-quakes.html?hpw&rref=science&_r=0\">tremors in Ohio.\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>Tsunami Threat Varies\u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Many have pondered why last Sunday’s \u003ca title=\"Times-Standard - post\" href=\"http://www.times-standard.com/breakingnews/ci_25312898/location-sundays-6-9-quake-reduced-impact-north\">6.7 quake off the Northern California coast\u003c/a> did not produce giant, devastating waves. Schwartz explained that tsunamis are produced by the displacement of the sea floor. “That requires sort of an up-and-down movement,” he told listeners. “This was a strike-slip fault, where the movement is lateral, side-to-side, so it really doesn’t affect the sea bottom.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Schwartz also said the temblor was relatively small for that area, citing five other events within 50 miles, bigger than magnitude 7, since about 1900. But he added that smaller events can trigger tsunamis if they cause underwater landslides.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Both Schwartz and Dvorak agreed on the need for an earthquake warning system in California, but advised not to look to your dog for guidance in the meantime. “There’s no scientific evidence that animals can sense earthquakes before they happen,” says Dvorak.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/15325/california-shakin-weve-got-a-lot-of-earthquakes-ahead-of-us","authors":["221"],"categories":["science_38","science_40"],"tags":["science_427","science_429","science_654","science_546","science_550"],"featImg":"science_15346","label":"science"},"science_9845":{"type":"posts","id":"science_9845","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"9845","score":null,"sort":[1381433150000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"the-science-of-californias-seismic-pests-or-earthquake-swarms","title":"The Science of California's Seismic Pests, or Earthquake \"Swarms\"","publishDate":1381433150,"format":"aside","headTitle":"The Science of California’s Seismic Pests, or Earthquake “Swarms” | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>Earlier this week, a cluster of dozens of little earthquakes occurred under the Salton Sea in southernmost California over the course of a couple of days. Most were too tiny to feel, and the largest—of magnitude 2.3—wasn’t big enough to be remarked upon. Specialists call this kind of thing an earthquake swarm, and while it seems like swarms ought to be telling us something, nobody yet has figured out what.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_9846\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/10/saltonswarm.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-9846\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9846\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/10/saltonswarm.png\" alt=\"Salton Sea earthquake swarm\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Seismicity in the southern Salton Sea during the week (yellow dots) and day (orange dots) before October 9, from the \u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#\">U.S. Geological Survey earthquake viewer\u003c/a>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>There are many kinds of movements going on in the deep earth, only some of which are earthquakes. (Others include \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/05/12/deep-jiggles-with-distant-triggers/\">tremor\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/09/05/how-californias-warping-microplate-makes-its-faults-creep/\">creep\u003c/a> and something in between called slow earthquakes.) Among earthquakes proper, the biggest ones are better understood than the rest—they’re big ruptures, called mainshocks— followed by a host of aftershocks that are best thought of as the mainshock rupture settling down to a relaxed state. Mainshocks may have a few foreshocks as well. Think of foreshocks like the crackling of a tree limb before it breaks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Small earthquakes often occur in bursts. One kind of burst is the familiar “mainshock-aftershock sequence”, like a skyrocket with a large explosion followed by lots of littler ones. Earthquake swarms are the other kind. They’re more like a set of random-sounding drumbeats that start up, go on for a while without reaching a climax and then taper off to a stop. They happen all over the world in all kinds of tectonic settings. Swarms can include quakes up to magnitude 6 or so, big enough to do serious damage. But most earthquake swarms are either unfelt or mildly disquieting at worst. (Actually, so are most mainshocks.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquake swarms were first noticed almost a century ago, and researchers were quick to associate them with volcanic regions, where movements of magma underground would be an obvious cause. As our earthquake records have grown, we’ve found swarms in all kinds of geologic settings. In a \u003ca href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004034\">pair\u003c/a> of \u003ca href=\"http://earthweb.ess.washington.edu/vidale/Reprints/GRL/2006_Vidale_Boyle_GRL.pdf\">papers\u003c/a> in 2006, John Vidale studied hundreds of swarms in southern California and Japan and found that they occurred everywhere, not just near volcanoes. He and his colleagues found that the majority of earthquake bursts were a blend between pure mainshock-aftershock sequences and typical swarms. It comes as no surprise that Earth doesn’t give us many clean test cases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers have proposed two main mechanisms for earthquake swarms. One is that underground fluids under high pressure are cracking the rocks in small events. Like people in a crowded bus making room for a group of boarding passengers, the rocks respond to the migration of the fluids and their associated pressures. \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EO410001/pdf\">A recent study in Italy\u003c/a> slightly favored that explanation for a swarm of over 5000 earthquakes that has been going on since 2010. This also makes sense for swarms that occur beneath volcanoes. In the Bay Area, we have a constant artificial earthquake swarm around \u003ca href=\"http://www.geysers.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Geysers\u003c/a>, where a large geothermal power plant is constantly pumping water down onto superheated volcanic rocks and harvesting the steam to generate electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other explanation is that the swarms are a response to episodes of deep-seated creep (motion without ruptures) along major faults. A \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04214.x/abstract\">2009 paper by Emily Roland and Jeffrey McGuire\u003c/a> looked at the Salton Sea area, which has lots of earthquake swarms and the same kind of transform faults that characterize the whole San Andreas fault zone. They found that seismic activity spread along the surface of the faults at 100 to 1000 meters per hour, which matches the behavior of short-lived creep episodes. They also found that the ruptures were slower than regular earthquakes and produced a smaller drop in stress. They concluded that “these systematic properties could be used to improve real-time hazard estimates by detecting the existence of a swarm-like sequence relatively early in its evolution.” That would be a nice thing to know, especially if the work can be applied to Bay Area earthquake swarms on the Hayward fault.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In earth science, it’s usually a good bet that when theorists offer two mechanisms for something, neither one will emerge as the single explanation. Instead, they’ll be complementary. The history of geology suggests that we eventually find, like that old TV ad said, “You’re both right!”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Scientists are creeping their way toward better understanding of earthquake swarms, those annoying and sometimes damaging seismic pests we get in California.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704934909,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":9,"wordCount":755},"headData":{"title":"The Science of California's Seismic Pests, or Earthquake \"Swarms\" | KQED","description":"Scientists are creeping their way toward better understanding of earthquake swarms, those annoying and sometimes damaging seismic pests we get in California.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"The Science of California's Seismic Pests, or Earthquake \"Swarms\"","datePublished":"2013-10-10T19:25:50.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T01:01:49.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/9845/the-science-of-californias-seismic-pests-or-earthquake-swarms","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Earlier this week, a cluster of dozens of little earthquakes occurred under the Salton Sea in southernmost California over the course of a couple of days. Most were too tiny to feel, and the largest—of magnitude 2.3—wasn’t big enough to be remarked upon. Specialists call this kind of thing an earthquake swarm, and while it seems like swarms ought to be telling us something, nobody yet has figured out what.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_9846\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/10/saltonswarm.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-9846\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9846\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/10/saltonswarm.png\" alt=\"Salton Sea earthquake swarm\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Seismicity in the southern Salton Sea during the week (yellow dots) and day (orange dots) before October 9, from the \u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#\">U.S. Geological Survey earthquake viewer\u003c/a>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>There are many kinds of movements going on in the deep earth, only some of which are earthquakes. (Others include \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/05/12/deep-jiggles-with-distant-triggers/\">tremor\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/2013/09/05/how-californias-warping-microplate-makes-its-faults-creep/\">creep\u003c/a> and something in between called slow earthquakes.) Among earthquakes proper, the biggest ones are better understood than the rest—they’re big ruptures, called mainshocks— followed by a host of aftershocks that are best thought of as the mainshock rupture settling down to a relaxed state. Mainshocks may have a few foreshocks as well. Think of foreshocks like the crackling of a tree limb before it breaks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Small earthquakes often occur in bursts. One kind of burst is the familiar “mainshock-aftershock sequence”, like a skyrocket with a large explosion followed by lots of littler ones. Earthquake swarms are the other kind. They’re more like a set of random-sounding drumbeats that start up, go on for a while without reaching a climax and then taper off to a stop. They happen all over the world in all kinds of tectonic settings. Swarms can include quakes up to magnitude 6 or so, big enough to do serious damage. But most earthquake swarms are either unfelt or mildly disquieting at worst. (Actually, so are most mainshocks.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Earthquake swarms were first noticed almost a century ago, and researchers were quick to associate them with volcanic regions, where movements of magma underground would be an obvious cause. As our earthquake records have grown, we’ve found swarms in all kinds of geologic settings. In a \u003ca href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004034\">pair\u003c/a> of \u003ca href=\"http://earthweb.ess.washington.edu/vidale/Reprints/GRL/2006_Vidale_Boyle_GRL.pdf\">papers\u003c/a> in 2006, John Vidale studied hundreds of swarms in southern California and Japan and found that they occurred everywhere, not just near volcanoes. He and his colleagues found that the majority of earthquake bursts were a blend between pure mainshock-aftershock sequences and typical swarms. It comes as no surprise that Earth doesn’t give us many clean test cases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Researchers have proposed two main mechanisms for earthquake swarms. One is that underground fluids under high pressure are cracking the rocks in small events. Like people in a crowded bus making room for a group of boarding passengers, the rocks respond to the migration of the fluids and their associated pressures. \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EO410001/pdf\">A recent study in Italy\u003c/a> slightly favored that explanation for a swarm of over 5000 earthquakes that has been going on since 2010. This also makes sense for swarms that occur beneath volcanoes. In the Bay Area, we have a constant artificial earthquake swarm around \u003ca href=\"http://www.geysers.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Geysers\u003c/a>, where a large geothermal power plant is constantly pumping water down onto superheated volcanic rocks and harvesting the steam to generate electricity.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The other explanation is that the swarms are a response to episodes of deep-seated creep (motion without ruptures) along major faults. A \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04214.x/abstract\">2009 paper by Emily Roland and Jeffrey McGuire\u003c/a> looked at the Salton Sea area, which has lots of earthquake swarms and the same kind of transform faults that characterize the whole San Andreas fault zone. They found that seismic activity spread along the surface of the faults at 100 to 1000 meters per hour, which matches the behavior of short-lived creep episodes. They also found that the ruptures were slower than regular earthquakes and produced a smaller drop in stress. They concluded that “these systematic properties could be used to improve real-time hazard estimates by detecting the existence of a swarm-like sequence relatively early in its evolution.” That would be a nice thing to know, especially if the work can be applied to Bay Area earthquake swarms on the Hayward fault.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In earth science, it’s usually a good bet that when theorists offer two mechanisms for something, neither one will emerge as the single explanation. Instead, they’ll be complementary. The history of geology suggests that we eventually find, like that old TV ad said, “You’re both right!”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/9845/the-science-of-californias-seismic-pests-or-earthquake-swarms","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_529","science_427","science_654","science_550"],"featImg":"science_9846","label":"science"},"science_8032":{"type":"posts","id":"science_8032","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"8032","score":null,"sort":[1378411205000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"how-californias-warping-microplate-makes-its-faults-creep","title":"How California's Warping Microplate Makes Its Faults Creep","publishDate":1378411205,"format":"aside","headTitle":"How California’s Warping Microplate Makes Its Faults Creep | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>Last week I gave a walking tour of the Hayward fault along the Oakland-Berkeley border. Among other things, I talked about the fault’s peculiar behavior called aseismic creep, in which the two sides of the fault move slowly past each other at just a few millimeters per year without the help of earthquakes. I pointed out places where creep has been gently distorting the streets. I explained that creep doesn’t remove much earthquake energy because it only affects shallow parts of the fault that can’t store much energy anyway. But I couldn’t say much more about it because geologists studying the creep problem have lots of questions, several hypotheses, and no answers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8037\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/stonewallfault.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8037\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8037\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/stonewallfault.jpg\" alt=\"Hayward fault creep\" width=\"600\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The creeping Hayward fault crosses Oakland’s Stonewall Road in 2001. All of this has since been rebuilt. Photo by Andrew Alden\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Just days later, \u003ca href=\"http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/41/9/\">the September issue of the journal \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em>\u003c/a> came out with a paper that makes an intriguing connection between our creeping faults and slow activity on the other side of the Sierra Nevada microplate, where the Earth’s outer shell is secretly splitting apart.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>(That’s right: The heart of California—the Central Valley and the mountains that ring it—is a separate tectonic plate, bounded by fault zones all the way around. The Sierra Nevada microplate rotates slightly and moves northwest at a few millimeters per year relative to the rest of the North America plate. California really \u003cem>is\u003c/em> different from its neighbors.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fault creep is quite uncommon in general, but a big central section of the San Andreas fault complex is creeping today while on either side the fault is locked, building up energy for large earthquakes like the 1906 quake in Northern California and the 1857 Fort Tejon quake in Southern California. The so-called creeping section runs from the village of Parkfield east of Paso Robles up to San Juan Bautista. Near there the Calaveras fault splits off from the San Andreas, and in turn the Hayward fault splits off from the Calaveras—and both of those faults also creep. See them shown in blue in this figure from the \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> paper. The authors are Laetitia Le Pourhiet, a French geophysicist, and Jason Saleeby, a geologist at Caltech’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/research/\">Tectonics Observatory\u003c/a> who has studied the southern Sierra Nevada for decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8033\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 568px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig1pourhietsaleeby.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8033\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8033\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig1pourhietsaleeby.jpg\" alt=\"Figure 1 Le Pourhiet-Saleeby paper\" width=\"568\" height=\"566\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1 of Le Pourhiet and Saleeby, “\u003ca href=\"http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/41/9/999.abstract\">Lithospheric convective instability could induce creep along part of the San Andreas fault\u003c/a>,” \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> v. 41, p. 999-1002 (Sept. 2013). Stars mark notable earthquakes in (north to south) 1906, 1989, 1983, 2004 and 1857.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>One of Saleeby’s most interesting lines of research is exploring how the dense rocky root of the southern Sierra broke off (delaminated) and sank into the hotter, softer mantle beneath to form a “lithospheric drip” starting about 4 million years ago. On the east side of the Sierra, the mountains responded by springing upward to create the dramatic eastern face that includes Mount Whitney, highest peak in the 48 states.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8034\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/southernsierra.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8034\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8034\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/southernsierra.jpg\" alt=\"Southern Sierra Nevada\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">East face of the southern Sierra Nevada at Owens Lake. Photo courtesy \u003ca href=\"http://www.flickr.com/photos/matthigh/\">Matthew Lee High\u003c/a> of Flickr via Creative Commons license\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The “Big Drip”, if I may call it that, is bending and twisting the rest of our microplate. On its west side, the drip is still attached and pulling down on the crust. The result is that the southern Great Valley is at its widest and deepest there, in the Tulare geologic basin. If you think of the Earth’s crust across central California as an air mattress floating in a pool, imagine a swimmer grabbing it in the middle from below and pulling down. The east end (the Sierra) bends upward and the middle (the Tulare basin) bends down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What happens farther west? Le Pourhiet did the computer modeling to show that the west side of the microplate arches upward by a hundred feet or so. That side is pinned against the San Andreas fault so it can’t simply break and spring upward like the eastern Sierra, which is being pulled away from Nevada.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8035\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 546px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig3pourhietsaleeby.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8035\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8035\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig3pourhietsaleeby.png\" alt=\"Sierra Nevada microplate warpage\" width=\"546\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Part of Figure 3 of the \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> paper; colors show the calculated vertical movements in response to the Big Drip.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>When the authors fed that result into a model of the San Andreas fault’s physics, the model accounted for the size and nature of the creeping section. There, most of the fault between the surface and its base at around 15 kilometers depth turns out weak and slippery, and only a narrow band of rock in the middle of that range has enough friction to gather a lot of strain energy. For the creeping section the model suggests a pattern of earthquakes no bigger than magnitude 6 or so, plus lots of creep. (In this picture the Bay Area is near the edge of that pattern, so while our faults creep they still are considered able to clobber us with magnitude-7 events.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So is any of this a scientific fact? Not yet; it’s just another good hypothesis that fits a variety of data but needs refinement. Scientific consensus is when everyone accepts a good hypothesis and moves ahead because they’ve run out of good counterarguments. We definitely haven’t reached that point for the San Andreas fault system. In the meantime, I can show you examples of Hayward fault creep \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/05/05/geological-outings-around-the-bay-a-visit-to-the-hayward-fault/\">in Hayward\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2013/04/18/gallegos-winery-and-the-hayward-fault/\">in Fremont\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/10/06/geological-outings-around-the-bay-point-pinole-and-the-hayward-fault/\">in Pinole\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"A tectonic \"Big Drip\" beneath the southern Sierra Nevada is connected to the creeping faults of Northern California in a new paper published in \u003ci>Geology\u003c/i>.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704935119,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":922},"headData":{"title":"How California's Warping Microplate Makes Its Faults Creep | KQED","description":"A tectonic "Big Drip" beneath the southern Sierra Nevada is connected to the creeping faults of Northern California in a new paper published in Geology.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"How California's Warping Microplate Makes Its Faults Creep","datePublished":"2013-09-05T20:00:05.000Z","dateModified":"2024-01-11T01:05:19.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/8032/how-californias-warping-microplate-makes-its-faults-creep","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Last week I gave a walking tour of the Hayward fault along the Oakland-Berkeley border. Among other things, I talked about the fault’s peculiar behavior called aseismic creep, in which the two sides of the fault move slowly past each other at just a few millimeters per year without the help of earthquakes. I pointed out places where creep has been gently distorting the streets. I explained that creep doesn’t remove much earthquake energy because it only affects shallow parts of the fault that can’t store much energy anyway. But I couldn’t say much more about it because geologists studying the creep problem have lots of questions, several hypotheses, and no answers.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8037\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 600px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/stonewallfault.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8037\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8037\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/stonewallfault.jpg\" alt=\"Hayward fault creep\" width=\"600\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The creeping Hayward fault crosses Oakland’s Stonewall Road in 2001. All of this has since been rebuilt. Photo by Andrew Alden\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Just days later, \u003ca href=\"http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/41/9/\">the September issue of the journal \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em>\u003c/a> came out with a paper that makes an intriguing connection between our creeping faults and slow activity on the other side of the Sierra Nevada microplate, where the Earth’s outer shell is secretly splitting apart.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>(That’s right: The heart of California—the Central Valley and the mountains that ring it—is a separate tectonic plate, bounded by fault zones all the way around. The Sierra Nevada microplate rotates slightly and moves northwest at a few millimeters per year relative to the rest of the North America plate. California really \u003cem>is\u003c/em> different from its neighbors.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fault creep is quite uncommon in general, but a big central section of the San Andreas fault complex is creeping today while on either side the fault is locked, building up energy for large earthquakes like the 1906 quake in Northern California and the 1857 Fort Tejon quake in Southern California. The so-called creeping section runs from the village of Parkfield east of Paso Robles up to San Juan Bautista. Near there the Calaveras fault splits off from the San Andreas, and in turn the Hayward fault splits off from the Calaveras—and both of those faults also creep. See them shown in blue in this figure from the \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> paper. The authors are Laetitia Le Pourhiet, a French geophysicist, and Jason Saleeby, a geologist at Caltech’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/research/\">Tectonics Observatory\u003c/a> who has studied the southern Sierra Nevada for decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8033\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 568px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig1pourhietsaleeby.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8033\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8033\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig1pourhietsaleeby.jpg\" alt=\"Figure 1 Le Pourhiet-Saleeby paper\" width=\"568\" height=\"566\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1 of Le Pourhiet and Saleeby, “\u003ca href=\"http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/41/9/999.abstract\">Lithospheric convective instability could induce creep along part of the San Andreas fault\u003c/a>,” \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> v. 41, p. 999-1002 (Sept. 2013). Stars mark notable earthquakes in (north to south) 1906, 1989, 1983, 2004 and 1857.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>One of Saleeby’s most interesting lines of research is exploring how the dense rocky root of the southern Sierra broke off (delaminated) and sank into the hotter, softer mantle beneath to form a “lithospheric drip” starting about 4 million years ago. On the east side of the Sierra, the mountains responded by springing upward to create the dramatic eastern face that includes Mount Whitney, highest peak in the 48 states.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8034\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/southernsierra.jpg\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8034\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8034\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/southernsierra.jpg\" alt=\"Southern Sierra Nevada\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">East face of the southern Sierra Nevada at Owens Lake. Photo courtesy \u003ca href=\"http://www.flickr.com/photos/matthigh/\">Matthew Lee High\u003c/a> of Flickr via Creative Commons license\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The “Big Drip”, if I may call it that, is bending and twisting the rest of our microplate. On its west side, the drip is still attached and pulling down on the crust. The result is that the southern Great Valley is at its widest and deepest there, in the Tulare geologic basin. If you think of the Earth’s crust across central California as an air mattress floating in a pool, imagine a swimmer grabbing it in the middle from below and pulling down. The east end (the Sierra) bends upward and the middle (the Tulare basin) bends down.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What happens farther west? Le Pourhiet did the computer modeling to show that the west side of the microplate arches upward by a hundred feet or so. That side is pinned against the San Andreas fault so it can’t simply break and spring upward like the eastern Sierra, which is being pulled away from Nevada.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_8035\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 546px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig3pourhietsaleeby.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-8035\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8035\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2013/09/fig3pourhietsaleeby.png\" alt=\"Sierra Nevada microplate warpage\" width=\"546\" height=\"450\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Part of Figure 3 of the \u003cem>Geology\u003c/em> paper; colors show the calculated vertical movements in response to the Big Drip.\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>When the authors fed that result into a model of the San Andreas fault’s physics, the model accounted for the size and nature of the creeping section. There, most of the fault between the surface and its base at around 15 kilometers depth turns out weak and slippery, and only a narrow band of rock in the middle of that range has enough friction to gather a lot of strain energy. For the creeping section the model suggests a pattern of earthquakes no bigger than magnitude 6 or so, plus lots of creep. (In this picture the Bay Area is near the edge of that pattern, so while our faults creep they still are considered able to clobber us with magnitude-7 events.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So is any of this a scientific fact? Not yet; it’s just another good hypothesis that fits a variety of data but needs refinement. Scientific consensus is when everyone accepts a good hypothesis and moves ahead because they’ve run out of good counterarguments. We definitely haven’t reached that point for the San Andreas fault system. In the meantime, I can show you examples of Hayward fault creep \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/05/05/geological-outings-around-the-bay-a-visit-to-the-hayward-fault/\">in Hayward\u003c/a>, \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2013/04/18/gallegos-winery-and-the-hayward-fault/\">in Fremont\u003c/a> and \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/2011/10/06/geological-outings-around-the-bay-point-pinole-and-the-hayward-fault/\">in Pinole\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/8032/how-californias-warping-microplate-makes-its-faults-creep","authors":["6228"],"categories":["science_38"],"tags":["science_5178","science_654","science_591","science_546","science_109"],"featImg":"science_8034","label":"science"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. 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You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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Plus, KQED’s Bianca Taylor brings you the local KQED news you need to know.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Consider-This-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"Consider This from NPR and KQED","officialWebsiteLink":"/podcasts/considerthis","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"7"},"link":"/podcasts/considerthis","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1503226625?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/coronavirusdaily","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5ucHIub3JnLzUxMDM1NS9wb2RjYXN0LnhtbA","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3Z6JdCS2d0eFEpXHKI6WqH"}},"forum":{"id":"forum","title":"Forum","tagline":"The conversation starts here","info":"KQED’s live call-in program discussing local, state, national and international issues, as well as in-depth interviews.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9am-11am, 10pm-11pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Forum-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED Forum with Mina Kim and Alexis Madrigal","officialWebsiteLink":"/forum","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"8"},"link":"/forum","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/kqeds-forum/id73329719","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM5NTU3MzgxNjMz","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/432307980/forum","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqedfm-kqeds-forum-podcast","rss":"https://feeds.megaphone.fm/KQINC9557381633"}},"freakonomics-radio":{"id":"freakonomics-radio","title":"Freakonomics Radio","info":"Freakonomics Radio is a one-hour award-winning podcast and public-radio project hosted by Stephen Dubner, with co-author Steve Levitt as a regular guest. 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