Why Cities Like San Francisco Get 10 Degrees Hotter Than Rural Areas
Mosquitoes Are Abuzz in San Francisco. You Can Thank Climate Change
A Glimpse Into the Future of Northern California Plant Life
Pacific Ocean Pattern Could Predict U.S. Heat Waves
How a Monster El Niño Transforms the World’s Weather
Climate Change Could Bring Bigger, Wetter Storms to California, Study Says
Climate Change Is Leaving Native Plants Behind
Trend: Large Wildfires More Common and Destructive in the West
EPA Plans Oil and Gas Methane Emission Cuts
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A new analysis shows how much worse it is for people living in urban environments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Roughly 41 million people live in urban areas where temperatures are at least 8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than their more rural surroundings, according to the analysis from the nonprofit research group \u003ca href=\"https://www.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a>. In some neighborhoods of Washington D.C., Chicago, New York and San Francisco, temperatures are more than 10 degrees hotter, amplifying health risks and cooling costs for millions of residents.[aside label=\"Related coverage\" postID=\"news_11878134\"]Other research shows lower-income areas and communities of color are \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2019/09/03/754044732/as-rising-heat-bakes-u-s-cities-the-poor-often-feel-it-most\">often worst affected\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change, supercharged by the burning of fossil fuels, is causing more intense and more frequent heatwaves. A study published earlier this week found that recent heatwaves in Europe and America would be “\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/07/25/1189837347/u-s-european-heat-waves-virtually-impossible-without-climate-change-new-study-fi\">virtually impossible\u003c/a>” without human-caused warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In cities, the heat is amplified by something called the \u003ca href=\"https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/urban-heat-islands\">urban heat island effect\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Urban heat islands are a byproduct of a built environment. Gas-powered cars and air conditioning units generate and radiate heat. Concrete parking lots and buildings absorb the sun’s heat and emit that heat long after the sun sets. Fewer trees mean less shade. Densely built areas essentially become islands where temperatures are hotter than their surroundings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Even if you live in the suburbs, there is some relevance when you think maybe [from] your nice shaded house, you go to the shopping plaza by the highway and you feel how much hotter it is there,” said Jen Brady, senior data analyst at Climate Central. “It’s because you have this dense built environment.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new analysis is essentially a more detailed and tighter focused version of a report Brady helped lead in 2021, which created an index to measure the intensity of urban heat islands and then ranked \u003ca href=\"https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/urban-heat-islands\">the nation’s 159 most-affected cities\u003c/a>. That index generated an intensity score based on several things including population density, building height, and whether a surface reflects sunlight or absorbs and retains heat. Climate Central’s latest examination looked at 44 of the country’s largest cities by population, zoomed in, and applied the same index to nearly 19,000 census tracts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I was surprised at how far out the urban heat island effect was,” Brady said. “I was thinking once you got out of the city core, [temperature] was just going to jump off a cliff, you know, [from] eight degrees more to two.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In reality, she said, the effects extend fairly far out. “You’re maintaining four to five degrees further and further outside even the city core.”[pullquote size='medium' align='right' citation='Angel Hsu, a public policy professor at the University of North Carolina']‘Americans in major U.S. cities living two times below the poverty line are exposed to almost a full degree higher Celsius of this urban heat island effect compared to their wealthier counterparts. And the same thing goes with people of color.’[/pullquote]The study did not apply socioeconomic or race data to the findings, but other research shows that some neighborhoods experience even worse heat island effects than others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Angel Hsu, a public policy professor at the University of North Carolina, published a study in 2021 looking at \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22799-5\">disproportionate exposures\u003c/a> to heat islands between different communities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What we found is that within a city, there can be huge differences in those temperatures and the heat exposure that various residents experience depending on their socio-demographic background,” she said. “Americans in major U.S. cities living two times below the poverty line are exposed to almost a full degree higher Celsius of this urban heat island effect compared to their wealthier counterparts. And the same thing goes with people of color.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Biden administration is trying to address the discrepancy, announcing earlier this year the availability of \u003ca href=\"https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2023/04/12/biden-harris-administration-announces-historic-funding-expand\">$1 billion in grants\u003c/a> for projects aimed at expanding green space or tree coverage in disadvantaged urban communities. Some cities and states are leading efforts to do the same. In Austin, aluminum shelters are being built over bus stops, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kut.org/transportation/2023-07-19/capmetro-new-bus-shelters-heat\">providing shade\u003c/a> for waiting commuters. In Los Angeles, some streets are \u003ca href=\"https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/greater-la/heat-latinos-la-times-oc/cool-streets#:~:text=Reflective%20gray%20paint%20absorbs%20less,takes%20a%20walk%20every%20day.\">being painted\u003c/a> a bright shade of gray to reflect sunlight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There are smaller scale solutions,” Brady said. “It’s not going to take you from ten additional degrees to zero degrees, but they can make it more bearable.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=It%27s+hot+out+there.+A+new+analysis+shows+it%27s+much+worse+if+you%27re+in+a+city&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/div>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"More than 40 million urban Americans are experiencing significantly hotter temperatures than their rural counterparts, new research finds. ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845946,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":15,"wordCount":779},"headData":{"title":"Why Cities Like San Francisco Get 10 Degrees Hotter Than Rural Areas | KQED","description":"More than 40 million urban Americans are experiencing significantly hotter temperatures than their rural counterparts, new research finds. ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"source":"NPR","sourceUrl":"https://www.npr.org/","sticky":false,"nprImageCredit":"Mario Tama","nprByline":"\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/people/348779465/nathan-rott\">Nathan Rott\u003c/a>","nprImageAgency":"Getty Images","nprStoryId":"1190071137","nprApiLink":"http://api.npr.org/query?id=1190071137&apiKey=MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004","nprHtmlLink":"https://www.npr.org/2023/07/26/1190071137/its-hot-out-there-a-new-analysis-shows-its-much-worse-if-youre-in-a-city?ft=nprml&f=1190071137","nprRetrievedStory":"1","nprPubDate":"Wed, 26 Jul 2023 06:16:00 -0400","nprStoryDate":"Wed, 26 Jul 2023 06:16:08 -0400","nprLastModifiedDate":"Wed, 26 Jul 2023 06:16:08 -0400","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","showOnAuthorArchivePages":"No","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1983596/why-cities-like-san-francisco-get-10-degrees-hotter-than-rural-areas","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Tens of millions of Americans have been living with stifling, dangerous heat this summer. A new analysis shows how much worse it is for people living in urban environments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Roughly 41 million people live in urban areas where temperatures are at least 8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than their more rural surroundings, according to the analysis from the nonprofit research group \u003ca href=\"https://www.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a>. In some neighborhoods of Washington D.C., Chicago, New York and San Francisco, temperatures are more than 10 degrees hotter, amplifying health risks and cooling costs for millions of residents.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"label":"Related coverage ","postid":"news_11878134"},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Other research shows lower-income areas and communities of color are \u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2019/09/03/754044732/as-rising-heat-bakes-u-s-cities-the-poor-often-feel-it-most\">often worst affected\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Climate change, supercharged by the burning of fossil fuels, is causing more intense and more frequent heatwaves. A study published earlier this week found that recent heatwaves in Europe and America would be “\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/2023/07/25/1189837347/u-s-european-heat-waves-virtually-impossible-without-climate-change-new-study-fi\">virtually impossible\u003c/a>” without human-caused warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In cities, the heat is amplified by something called the \u003ca href=\"https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/urban-heat-islands\">urban heat island effect\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Urban heat islands are a byproduct of a built environment. Gas-powered cars and air conditioning units generate and radiate heat. Concrete parking lots and buildings absorb the sun’s heat and emit that heat long after the sun sets. Fewer trees mean less shade. Densely built areas essentially become islands where temperatures are hotter than their surroundings.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Even if you live in the suburbs, there is some relevance when you think maybe [from] your nice shaded house, you go to the shopping plaza by the highway and you feel how much hotter it is there,” said Jen Brady, senior data analyst at Climate Central. “It’s because you have this dense built environment.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new analysis is essentially a more detailed and tighter focused version of a report Brady helped lead in 2021, which created an index to measure the intensity of urban heat islands and then ranked \u003ca href=\"https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/urban-heat-islands\">the nation’s 159 most-affected cities\u003c/a>. That index generated an intensity score based on several things including population density, building height, and whether a surface reflects sunlight or absorbs and retains heat. Climate Central’s latest examination looked at 44 of the country’s largest cities by population, zoomed in, and applied the same index to nearly 19,000 census tracts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“I was surprised at how far out the urban heat island effect was,” Brady said. “I was thinking once you got out of the city core, [temperature] was just going to jump off a cliff, you know, [from] eight degrees more to two.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In reality, she said, the effects extend fairly far out. “You’re maintaining four to five degrees further and further outside even the city core.”\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"‘Americans in major U.S. cities living two times below the poverty line are exposed to almost a full degree higher Celsius of this urban heat island effect compared to their wealthier counterparts. And the same thing goes with people of color.’","name":"pullquote","attributes":{"named":{"size":"medium","align":"right","citation":"Angel Hsu, a public policy professor at the University of North Carolina","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>The study did not apply socioeconomic or race data to the findings, but other research shows that some neighborhoods experience even worse heat island effects than others.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Angel Hsu, a public policy professor at the University of North Carolina, published a study in 2021 looking at \u003ca href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22799-5\">disproportionate exposures\u003c/a> to heat islands between different communities.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What we found is that within a city, there can be huge differences in those temperatures and the heat exposure that various residents experience depending on their socio-demographic background,” she said. “Americans in major U.S. cities living two times below the poverty line are exposed to almost a full degree higher Celsius of this urban heat island effect compared to their wealthier counterparts. And the same thing goes with people of color.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Biden administration is trying to address the discrepancy, announcing earlier this year the availability of \u003ca href=\"https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2023/04/12/biden-harris-administration-announces-historic-funding-expand\">$1 billion in grants\u003c/a> for projects aimed at expanding green space or tree coverage in disadvantaged urban communities. Some cities and states are leading efforts to do the same. In Austin, aluminum shelters are being built over bus stops, \u003ca href=\"https://www.kut.org/transportation/2023-07-19/capmetro-new-bus-shelters-heat\">providing shade\u003c/a> for waiting commuters. In Los Angeles, some streets are \u003ca href=\"https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/greater-la/heat-latinos-la-times-oc/cool-streets#:~:text=Reflective%20gray%20paint%20absorbs%20less,takes%20a%20walk%20every%20day.\">being painted\u003c/a> a bright shade of gray to reflect sunlight.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There are smaller scale solutions,” Brady said. “It’s not going to take you from ten additional degrees to zero degrees, but they can make it more bearable.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cdiv class=\"fullattribution\">Copyright 2023 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"https://www.google-analytics.com/__utm.gif?utmac=UA-5828686-4&utmdt=It%27s+hot+out+there.+A+new+analysis+shows+it%27s+much+worse+if+you%27re+in+a+city&utme=8(APIKey)9(MDAxOTAwOTE4MDEyMTkxMDAzNjczZDljZA004)\">\u003c/div>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1983596/why-cities-like-san-francisco-get-10-degrees-hotter-than-rural-areas","authors":["byline_science_1983596"],"categories":["science_31","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_182","science_1678","science_2184"],"featImg":"science_1983597","label":"source_science_1983596"},"science_1982793":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1982793","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1982793","score":null,"sort":[1685484376000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"mosquitoes-are-abuzz-in-san-francisco-you-can-thank-climate-change","title":"Mosquitoes Are Abuzz in San Francisco. You Can Thank Climate Change","publishDate":1685484376,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Mosquitoes Are Abuzz in San Francisco. You Can Thank Climate Change | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/search?q=%22atmospheric%20river%20storm%22&site=all\">Bay Area’s epic winter rainfall\u003c/a> means that a certain pesky, blood-sucking summertime pest is having the time of its short life. (For males, that’s about a week — and that’s if they aren’t swatted sooner!)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This year you’re going to see some pretty bad mosquito conditions — good conditions if you’re a mosquito, bad conditions if you’re a human being,” said Kaitlyn Trudeau, senior research associate at Climate Central. “Mosquitos are awful. I’m not a fan.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the short term, lots of rain and snow means plentiful puddles, marshes, ponds and \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/AlamedaMosquito/status/1620897337479692288?s=20\">other opportunities for mosquitoes to lay their eggs and reproduce rapidly\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there’s a long-term trend playing out, and it has to do with warming temperatures — and it’s bad news for any San Franciscan with bare ankles and plans for an outdoor picnic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trudeau and her research colleagues \u003ca href=\"https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/mosquito-days-2023?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CM%20Mosquito%20Days%202023%20EN&utm_content=CM%20Mosquito%20Days%202023%20EN+CID_4eb38b05659c31aaee3e76c28498cca4&utm_source=Climate%20Central%20Email%20Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=READ%20THE%20RELEASE%20%20CONTACT%20EXPERTS%20%20FIND%20REPORTING%20RESOURCES\">looked closely at mosquito activity trends between 1979 and 2022 at 242 locations across the U.S.\u003c/a> They found that rising summertime temperatures are affecting mosquitoes all over the place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Across the country, 173 places showed an annual increase in “mosquito days” by an average of 16 days; these are days when conditions are optimal for mosquitoes, with an average relative humidity of 42% or higher, and daily temperatures ranging from 50 to 95 degrees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco saw one of the sharpest increase by a whopping 42 days.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What’s really causing this is the rise in minimum temperatures,” Trudeau said. “There are many more days where the minimum temperature in San Francisco is 50 degrees or above.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The number of mosquito-friendly days around the coastal Bay Area has increased dramatically as the cooler days warm up, but San Francisco’s warmer days on average are still well below 95 degrees, making it a sweet spot for mosquitos.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is also the case in other humid coastal areas like Monterey and Salinas, which share these increasingly optimal conditions for mosquitoes to survive, according to Trudeau.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s the coastal curse,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982794 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"A graph showing an increase in mosquito days in San Francisco. \" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But that trend is not true everywhere: Already hot places are getting even hotter, too warm for mosquitoes to thrive.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other inland locations throughout the state like Stockton, Sacramento and Bakersfield are much hotter and regularly roast with temperatures above 95 degrees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The rising temperatures in these places are causing mosquito activity to plummet each year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The Central Valley isn’t humid, and it’s likely getting too hot for mosquitoes,” Trudeau said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982843\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"A graph showing the decrease in the number of annual mosquito days in Sacramento. \" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Places like San José, which gets warmer temperatures than the coastal areas, experienced a lower annual increase of mosquito days, too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fifty-five U.S. locations saw a significant increase of 21 days or more, primarily in the Ohio Valley and Northeast regions. The majority of the 61 locations with a decrease in mosquito days were in the Southern areas, where temperatures were too high for mosquitos to thrive.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>A sign of climate change\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Spring and fall temperatures are rising, and that means mosquitoes will come out earlier and survive longer, increasing the opportunities for mosquito bites and disease transmission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are over 200 mosquito species in the U.S., with around a dozen species that can transmit viruses and parasites to humans. West Nile virus is the primary mosquito-borne disease in the U.S. and the Bay Area.[aside postID='science_728086']Compared to tropical regions, the U.S. has lower infection rates and milder health effects from mosquito-borne diseases. Globally, malaria and dengue pose more significant risks, particularly in Africa and Asia. Tick-borne diseases are more prevalent than mosquito-borne diseases in the U.S., although West Nile virus cases are widespread, especially in the Plains and Central regions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982795\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982795\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589-800x554.jpg\" alt=\"A map of the Bay Area with shades of blue, yellow, orange, and red dots.\" width=\"800\" height=\"554\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589-800x554.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589-1020x706.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589-160x111.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589-768x532.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589.jpg 1138w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A dot map of the annual change in mosquito days in the Bay Area between 1979 and 2022. \u003ccite>(Kaitlyn Trudeau/Climate Central)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Climate change affects mosquito populations and disease transmission, with increasing mosquito days and potential health risks. While mosquito-borne diseases are relatively less common in the U.S., officials say it remains crucial to address their impact through public health measures and understanding the varying risks posed by different mosquito species.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The things that we do on a daily basis are impacting the environment. An increase in mosquito days is just one of the many, many impacts that we are seeing around the U.S., around the world, or in California because of climate change,” Trudeau said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Innovative efforts to reduce mosquito population\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Last April, the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors approved an innovative initiative to reduce the mosquito population.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They launched a six-propeller drone to drop larvicide on the county’s remote marshlands, replacing work that was typically conducted by helicopter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Edgar Nolasco, who directs the agency spearheading the program, said using drones instead of helicopters reduces the county’s carbon footprint and is more sustainable and efficient. It decreases larvicide waste and saves on costs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A drone is able to get closer to areas that helicopters can’t get to because of the drift caused by their propellers,” said Nolasco, who works for the Consumer and Environmental Protection Agency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Adult mosquitoes can travel up to a 25-mile radius. “Treating adult mosquitos becomes very difficult,” Nolasco said, adding that using a strong larvicide program is the most effective way for the county to combat mosquitos.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"County of Santa Clara to Use Drones to Reduce Mosquito Population\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/J9edY0VeWpk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen>\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nolasco emphasizes that drones will only be used in uninhabitable and remote areas not accessible by the \u003ca href=\"https://vector.sccgov.org/home\">Vector Control team\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And, he said, the county is making every effort to eliminate mosquito sources, but is asking the community to help reduce the mosquito population.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need everybody in the community to do their part with standing water,” Nolaso said. “With the amount of rain that we got this year, there are many areas of standing water that can hold water that can reproduce mosquitoes.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What to do if you get a mosquito bite, and how to protect yourself\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>If you get bitten by a mosquito, the California Department of Public Health recommends using a topical lotion to reduce itching. In California, most mosquito bites do not result in any infection. If you develop a fever two to 14 days after getting bitten by a mosquito and are concerned about West Nile virus disease, you should see a doctor. Most people with West Nile recover completely, according to CDPH.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The San Francisco Department of Public Health recommends using mosquito repellant such as DEET, installing window screens and wearing long sleeves when outdoors at night if possible.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982796\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982796 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A young Black woman with locs twirled on the top of her head sprays insect repellent on her skin while in the outdoors. Background shows lush green trees.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Insect repellent can deter mosquitoes and ticks during hikes in nature. \u003ccite>(stefanamer/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Residents can also protect themselves by recognizing and reducing the source where mosquito larvae are commonly found. Mosquitos lay eggs in standing water, such as water in outdoor containers, so it’s important for residents to clear this water and clean out clogged roof gutters. Large drains that hold water are also a possible source of mosquito activity. Placing screens and under-drain covers could prevent mosquitoes from breeding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco health officials frequently survey areas where mosquito complaints are received, make monthly checks on monitoring devices for invasive Aedes mosquitoes in select fire stations and inspect apartment buildings regularly for mosquito sources. To report complaints, call 311. For more information, \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eLTc975iJI\">see San Francisco’s Mosquito Prevention 101 public service announcement\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/Us7dClYpANizM4m4s9UYrw?domain=westnile.ca.gov/\">West Nile virus website\u003c/a>, handled by CDPH’s Vector-Borne Disease Section, is updated weekly on Fridays with the latest findings to ensure public health partners and the public have current information on the risk of transmission in the state.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Reality bites: Warming weather has extended skeeter season in San Francisco by six weeks. Here are some tips for managing the bugs.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704845997,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":true,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":39,"wordCount":1314},"headData":{"title":"Mosquitoes Are Abuzz in San Francisco. You Can Thank Climate Change | KQED","description":"Reality bites: Warming weather has extended skeeter season in San Francisco by six weeks. Here are some tips for managing the bugs.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/science/1982793/mosquitoes-are-abuzz-in-san-francisco-you-can-thank-climate-change","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/search?q=%22atmospheric%20river%20storm%22&site=all\">Bay Area’s epic winter rainfall\u003c/a> means that a certain pesky, blood-sucking summertime pest is having the time of its short life. (For males, that’s about a week — and that’s if they aren’t swatted sooner!)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This year you’re going to see some pretty bad mosquito conditions — good conditions if you’re a mosquito, bad conditions if you’re a human being,” said Kaitlyn Trudeau, senior research associate at Climate Central. “Mosquitos are awful. I’m not a fan.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the short term, lots of rain and snow means plentiful puddles, marshes, ponds and \u003ca href=\"https://twitter.com/AlamedaMosquito/status/1620897337479692288?s=20\">other opportunities for mosquitoes to lay their eggs and reproduce rapidly\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But there’s a long-term trend playing out, and it has to do with warming temperatures — and it’s bad news for any San Franciscan with bare ankles and plans for an outdoor picnic.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Trudeau and her research colleagues \u003ca href=\"https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/mosquito-days-2023?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CM%20Mosquito%20Days%202023%20EN&utm_content=CM%20Mosquito%20Days%202023%20EN+CID_4eb38b05659c31aaee3e76c28498cca4&utm_source=Climate%20Central%20Email%20Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=READ%20THE%20RELEASE%20%20CONTACT%20EXPERTS%20%20FIND%20REPORTING%20RESOURCES\">looked closely at mosquito activity trends between 1979 and 2022 at 242 locations across the U.S.\u003c/a> They found that rising summertime temperatures are affecting mosquitoes all over the place.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Across the country, 173 places showed an annual increase in “mosquito days” by an average of 16 days; these are days when conditions are optimal for mosquitoes, with an average relative humidity of 42% or higher, and daily temperatures ranging from 50 to 95 degrees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco saw one of the sharpest increase by a whopping 42 days.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What’s really causing this is the rise in minimum temperatures,” Trudeau said. “There are many more days where the minimum temperature in San Francisco is 50 degrees or above.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The number of mosquito-friendly days around the coastal Bay Area has increased dramatically as the cooler days warm up, but San Francisco’s warmer days on average are still well below 95 degrees, making it a sweet spot for mosquitos.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This is also the case in other humid coastal areas like Monterey and Salinas, which share these increasingly optimal conditions for mosquitoes to survive, according to Trudeau.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s the coastal curse,” she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982794 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"A graph showing an increase in mosquito days in San Francisco. \" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sanfrancisco_en_title_lg.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But that trend is not true everywhere: Already hot places are getting even hotter, too warm for mosquitoes to thrive.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Other inland locations throughout the state like Stockton, Sacramento and Bakersfield are much hotter and regularly roast with temperatures above 95 degrees.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The rising temperatures in these places are causing mosquito activity to plummet each year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The Central Valley isn’t humid, and it’s likely getting too hot for mosquitoes,” Trudeau said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982843\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"A graph showing the decrease in the number of annual mosquito days in Sacramento. \" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-1020x574.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-160x90.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-768x432.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/2023Mosquitoes_Days_sacramento_en_title_lg.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Places like San José, which gets warmer temperatures than the coastal areas, experienced a lower annual increase of mosquito days, too.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fifty-five U.S. locations saw a significant increase of 21 days or more, primarily in the Ohio Valley and Northeast regions. The majority of the 61 locations with a decrease in mosquito days were in the Southern areas, where temperatures were too high for mosquitos to thrive.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>A sign of climate change\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Spring and fall temperatures are rising, and that means mosquitoes will come out earlier and survive longer, increasing the opportunities for mosquito bites and disease transmission.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are over 200 mosquito species in the U.S., with around a dozen species that can transmit viruses and parasites to humans. West Nile virus is the primary mosquito-borne disease in the U.S. and the Bay Area.\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"aside","attributes":{"named":{"postid":"science_728086","label":""},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>Compared to tropical regions, the U.S. has lower infection rates and milder health effects from mosquito-borne diseases. Globally, malaria and dengue pose more significant risks, particularly in Africa and Asia. Tick-borne diseases are more prevalent than mosquito-borne diseases in the U.S., although West Nile virus cases are widespread, especially in the Plains and Central regions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982795\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1982795\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589-800x554.jpg\" alt=\"A map of the Bay Area with shades of blue, yellow, orange, and red dots.\" width=\"800\" height=\"554\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589-800x554.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589-1020x706.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589-160x111.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589-768x532.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/IMG_0589.jpg 1138w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A dot map of the annual change in mosquito days in the Bay Area between 1979 and 2022. \u003ccite>(Kaitlyn Trudeau/Climate Central)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Climate change affects mosquito populations and disease transmission, with increasing mosquito days and potential health risks. While mosquito-borne diseases are relatively less common in the U.S., officials say it remains crucial to address their impact through public health measures and understanding the varying risks posed by different mosquito species.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The things that we do on a daily basis are impacting the environment. An increase in mosquito days is just one of the many, many impacts that we are seeing around the U.S., around the world, or in California because of climate change,” Trudeau said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>Innovative efforts to reduce mosquito population\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>Last April, the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors approved an innovative initiative to reduce the mosquito population.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They launched a six-propeller drone to drop larvicide on the county’s remote marshlands, replacing work that was typically conducted by helicopter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Edgar Nolasco, who directs the agency spearheading the program, said using drones instead of helicopters reduces the county’s carbon footprint and is more sustainable and efficient. It decreases larvicide waste and saves on costs.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A drone is able to get closer to areas that helicopters can’t get to because of the drift caused by their propellers,” said Nolasco, who works for the Consumer and Environmental Protection Agency.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Adult mosquitoes can travel up to a 25-mile radius. “Treating adult mosquitos becomes very difficult,” Nolasco said, adding that using a strong larvicide program is the most effective way for the county to combat mosquitos.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"County of Santa Clara to Use Drones to Reduce Mosquito Population\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/J9edY0VeWpk?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen>\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Nolasco emphasizes that drones will only be used in uninhabitable and remote areas not accessible by the \u003ca href=\"https://vector.sccgov.org/home\">Vector Control team\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And, he said, the county is making every effort to eliminate mosquito sources, but is asking the community to help reduce the mosquito population.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We need everybody in the community to do their part with standing water,” Nolaso said. “With the amount of rain that we got this year, there are many areas of standing water that can hold water that can reproduce mosquitoes.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch2>What to do if you get a mosquito bite, and how to protect yourself\u003c/h2>\n\u003cp>If you get bitten by a mosquito, the California Department of Public Health recommends using a topical lotion to reduce itching. In California, most mosquito bites do not result in any infection. If you develop a fever two to 14 days after getting bitten by a mosquito and are concerned about West Nile virus disease, you should see a doctor. Most people with West Nile recover completely, according to CDPH.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The San Francisco Department of Public Health recommends using mosquito repellant such as DEET, installing window screens and wearing long sleeves when outdoors at night if possible.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1982796\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1982796 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-800x533.jpg\" alt=\"A young Black woman with locs twirled on the top of her head sprays insect repellent on her skin while in the outdoors. Background shows lush green trees.\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-800x533.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-1020x680.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-160x107.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2023/05/GettyImages-1407155740-1920x1280.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Insect repellent can deter mosquitoes and ticks during hikes in nature. \u003ccite>(stefanamer/Getty Images)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Residents can also protect themselves by recognizing and reducing the source where mosquito larvae are commonly found. Mosquitos lay eggs in standing water, such as water in outdoor containers, so it’s important for residents to clear this water and clean out clogged roof gutters. Large drains that hold water are also a possible source of mosquito activity. Placing screens and under-drain covers could prevent mosquitoes from breeding.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>San Francisco health officials frequently survey areas where mosquito complaints are received, make monthly checks on monitoring devices for invasive Aedes mosquitoes in select fire stations and inspect apartment buildings regularly for mosquito sources. To report complaints, call 311. For more information, \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eLTc975iJI\">see San Francisco’s Mosquito Prevention 101 public service announcement\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ca href=\"https://protect-us.mimecast.com/s/Us7dClYpANizM4m4s9UYrw?domain=westnile.ca.gov/\">West Nile virus website\u003c/a>, handled by CDPH’s Vector-Borne Disease Section, is updated weekly on Fridays with the latest findings to ensure public health partners and the public have current information on the risk of transmission in the state.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1982793/mosquitoes-are-abuzz-in-san-francisco-you-can-thank-climate-change","authors":["11631"],"categories":["science_31","science_39","science_40","science_4450"],"tags":["science_182","science_1678","science_4417","science_5181","science_157","science_1759","science_4729","science_5183"],"featImg":"science_1982798","label":"science"},"science_1926500":{"type":"posts","id":"science_1926500","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"1926500","score":null,"sort":[1534489298000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"a-glimpse-into-the-future-of-northern-california-plantlife","title":"A Glimpse Into the Future of Northern California Plant Life","publishDate":1534489298,"format":"audio","headTitle":"A Glimpse Into the Future of Northern California Plant Life | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>Imagine what a Northern California garden might look like 100 years from now as temperatures keep rising. Where lush grasses, riotously bright California poppies and quaking aspens once stood, picture — what? Cracked earth, tumbleweeds, cactus and giant cockroaches, maybe?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A group of artists and scientists at UC Santa Cruz (UCSC) have a different vision for the California landscape of the future, and they’re starting to prepare for it now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Part science experiment and part art installation, \u003ca href=\"http://ias.ucsc.edu/events/2018/future-garden-opening-may-19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">“Future Garden for the Central Coast of California” \u003c/a>aims to discover which plants are most likely to survive escalating temperatures and can help regenerate the regional ecosystem as climates shift.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926525\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1926525\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"The three eco-domes at the UCSC Arboretum that are the main focus of the 'Future Garden' project.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The three eco-domes at the UCSC Arboretum that are the main focus of the ‘Future Garden’ project. \u003ccite>(Photo: Chloe Veltman/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>There are 16 different species of plants in each of the three restored, 1970s-era geodesic domes at the \u003ca href=\"https://arboretum.ucsc.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UCSC Arboretum and Botanic Garden\u003c/a>. The plan is to accelerate the process of climate change inside the domes to find out which species are more resilient over time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The process is going to take a while; the recently-installed project is expected to last 50 to 75 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“W\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">e’re assisting the migration of species through time,” says Santa Cruz-based environmental artist Newton Harrison, who co-created the project with his late wife Helen Mayer Harrison and other science and art partners at UCSC. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">The world-renowned artists, who in 2016 became the subject of a \u003ca href=\"https://www.amazon.com/Time-Force-Majeure-Counterforce-Horizon/dp/379135549X\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">beautifully-illustrated tome\u003c/a> published by Random House, and whose \u003ca href=\"https://exhibits.stanford.edu/harrison/about/the-helen-and-newton-harrison-papers-at-stanford\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">archives are housed at Stanford University\u003c/a>, have been making environmental artworks on a global scale since 1969. \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Harrisons’ work mostly takes the form of installations, writings and large-format wall maps. And it has brought them both fame and notoriety over the years.\u003c/span>\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926528\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1926528 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-800x444.jpg\" alt=\"Helen Mayer Harrison and Newton Harrison. A collage composed of two different photos taken in the early 1990s. Helen would have been about 64 and Newton about 59 at the time these photos were taken.\" width=\"800\" height=\"444\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-800x444.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-160x89.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-768x426.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-1020x566.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-960x533.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-672x372.jpg 672w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-240x133.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-375x208.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-520x289.jpg 520w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Helen Mayer Harrison and Newton Harrison. A collage composed of two different photos taken in the early 1990s. Helen would have been about 64 and Newton about 59 at the time these photos were taken. \u003ccite>(Photo: Peggy Jarrell Kaplan Courtesy of The Harrison Studio)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">One the one hand, they inspired a branch of the Dutch government to change its approach to urban planning as a result of their \u003ca href=\"http://theharrisonstudio.net/?page_id=534\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u003cem>Green Heart of Holland\u003c/em>\u003c/a> project; on the other, they caused political uproar in England during \u003ca href=\"http://theharrisonstudio.net/?page_id=192\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">an exhibition at London’s Hayward Gallery\u003c/a> involving the electrocution of catfish. (The controversy was later transformed into a \u003ca href=\"http://www.tete-a-tete.org.uk/catfish-conundrum/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">chamber opera\u003c/a>.) \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">You can read and listen to a KQED profile of the Harrisons and their epic career \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/11314278/how-two-santa-cruz-artists-changed-the-course-of-environmental-history\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here\u003c/a>. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The inspiration for this latest project at the UCSC Arboretum came more than two years ago, when the Harrisons happened to stroll past the three, then-decrepit domes and saw an opportunity to renovate and convert them into testing grounds for local plants facing the effects of climate change. “Nature is pretty opportunistic,” Harrison says. “And artists are pretty opportunistic, too.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Two of the domes had been completely shut off and empty and one of them was being used for a crafting group,” says Martin Quigley, executive director of the UCSC Arboretum and the Harrisons’ main collaborator on the project. “All of them were in very bad repair. So this has revitalized the whole area.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s new fabric on the domes, and a fresh, stable framework, plus new landscaping all around the area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926522\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1926522\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"UCSC Arboretum executive director Martin Quigley.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">UCSC Arboretum executive director Martin Quigley. \u003ccite>(Photo: Chloe Veltman/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Each \u003cem>Future Garden\u003c/em> dome houses an assortment of 16 native plants, chosen chiefly for their likely resilience in the face of sudden, drastic temperature and water fluctuations. Species on display include yarrow, fescue and coyote mint. Some of the plants are edible. Some have medicinal properties. Many have also been a staple of Native American life in the region for thousands of years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After a year of establishing the plants, the project team members plan to start playing with the conditions inside each dome. One dome will experience heat spikes in summer months and less than normal rain during the winter, similar to a continental desert. One dome will mimic coastal temperate conditions in the Pacific northwest, with ambient temperatures and summer rainfall. The third dome will experience both heat and water spikes amid warmer than average temperatures, mimicking subtropical conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Outside the domes, the same species have been planted in small walled gardens around each dome to provide a set of control experiments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926524\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1926524\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"Inside one of the eco-domes.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Inside one of the eco-domes. \u003ccite>(Photo: Chloe Veltman/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“Climate change isn’t about a slow steady temperature increase,” says Quigley. “It’s about spikes and randomness that increase. And because these domes are smallish, it’s very easy to manipulate that in a strong way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Future Garde\u003c/em>n is part of a larger, ongoing investigation by the Harrisons into the survival of species in the face of climate change, entitled \u003cem>\u003ca href=\"http://theharrisonstudio.net/art-projects-2/force-majeure-synthesis-2009-present\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Force Majeure\u003c/a>. \u003c/em>The Harrisons co-opted the legal term “force majeure” for this body of work, which means a huge power that cannot be controlled, not unlike the fast-encroaching water levels and rising temperatures we’re experiencing on the planet today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926521\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1926521\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"Artist Newton Harrison\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Artist Newton Harrison today. The artist’s wife and long-term creative partner Helen Mayer Harrison recently passed away. \u003ccite>(Photo: Chloe Veltman/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Another \u003cem>Force Majeure\u003c/em> project, at the University of California Berkeley’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.ucnrs.org/reserves/sagehen-creek-field-station.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sagehen Creek Field Station\u003c/a> in the Eastern Sierra Nevada, is already starting to see results. For the four-year-old installation, artists collaborated with field station scientists to physically move groups of plant species to different altitude levels. The aim is to help seedlings — such as wild rose and red fir — become resilient to the warming effects of climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found something rather astonishing, after drought and all the other problems it could possibly have,” says Harrison. “Of the 21 species we installed, about six — or 25 percent — live at all levels. That’s success.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926523\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1926523\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"A 'Future Garden' eco-dome.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A ‘Future Garden’ eco-dome. \u003ccite>(Photo: Chloe Veltman/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Although he has reason to be mildly optimistic, Harrison continues to worry about what our hot, dry future might look like. And though it’s a controversial idea, he believes finding a way to help a few, hardy species learn to become more adaptable to rising temperatures is ultimately more likely to succeed than trying to save many already-endangered species from dying out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“An awful lot of the experimentation that receives grants aims to save the most endangered species, which if the temperature gets hot enough, are not inherently savable,” Harrison says. “We take exactly the opposite position. We look for the most resilient species.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>“Future Garden for the Central Coast of California” is presented by UCSC’s Institute of the Arts and Sciences.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"A new, long-term art and science project at the University of California Santa Cruz tests possible scenarios for what gardens might look like 50 years from now as regional temperatures continue to rise.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704927560,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":23,"wordCount":1185},"headData":{"title":"A Glimpse Into the Future of Northern California Plant Life | KQED","description":"A new, long-term art and science project at the University of California Santa Cruz tests possible scenarios for what gardens might look like 50 years from now as regional temperatures continue to rise.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/2018/08/VeltmanVentonFutureGardens.mp3","sticky":false,"audioTrackLength":438,"path":"/science/1926500/a-glimpse-into-the-future-of-northern-california-plantlife","audioDuration":440000,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Imagine what a Northern California garden might look like 100 years from now as temperatures keep rising. Where lush grasses, riotously bright California poppies and quaking aspens once stood, picture — what? Cracked earth, tumbleweeds, cactus and giant cockroaches, maybe?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>A group of artists and scientists at UC Santa Cruz (UCSC) have a different vision for the California landscape of the future, and they’re starting to prepare for it now.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Part science experiment and part art installation, \u003ca href=\"http://ias.ucsc.edu/events/2018/future-garden-opening-may-19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">“Future Garden for the Central Coast of California” \u003c/a>aims to discover which plants are most likely to survive escalating temperatures and can help regenerate the regional ecosystem as climates shift.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926525\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1926525\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"The three eco-domes at the UCSC Arboretum that are the main focus of the 'Future Garden' project.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0684-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The three eco-domes at the UCSC Arboretum that are the main focus of the ‘Future Garden’ project. \u003ccite>(Photo: Chloe Veltman/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>There are 16 different species of plants in each of the three restored, 1970s-era geodesic domes at the \u003ca href=\"https://arboretum.ucsc.edu/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UCSC Arboretum and Botanic Garden\u003c/a>. The plan is to accelerate the process of climate change inside the domes to find out which species are more resilient over time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The process is going to take a while; the recently-installed project is expected to last 50 to 75 years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“W\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">e’re assisting the migration of species through time,” says Santa Cruz-based environmental artist Newton Harrison, who co-created the project with his late wife Helen Mayer Harrison and other science and art partners at UCSC. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">The world-renowned artists, who in 2016 became the subject of a \u003ca href=\"https://www.amazon.com/Time-Force-Majeure-Counterforce-Horizon/dp/379135549X\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">beautifully-illustrated tome\u003c/a> published by Random House, and whose \u003ca href=\"https://exhibits.stanford.edu/harrison/about/the-helen-and-newton-harrison-papers-at-stanford\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">archives are housed at Stanford University\u003c/a>, have been making environmental artworks on a global scale since 1969. \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Harrisons’ work mostly takes the form of installations, writings and large-format wall maps. And it has brought them both fame and notoriety over the years.\u003c/span>\u003cstrong> \u003c/strong>\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926528\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1926528 size-medium\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-800x444.jpg\" alt=\"Helen Mayer Harrison and Newton Harrison. A collage composed of two different photos taken in the early 1990s. Helen would have been about 64 and Newton about 59 at the time these photos were taken.\" width=\"800\" height=\"444\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-800x444.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-160x89.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-768x426.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-1020x566.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-960x533.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-672x372.jpg 672w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-240x133.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-375x208.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576-520x289.jpg 520w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/HelenNewtonCover-1038x576.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Helen Mayer Harrison and Newton Harrison. A collage composed of two different photos taken in the early 1990s. Helen would have been about 64 and Newton about 59 at the time these photos were taken. \u003ccite>(Photo: Peggy Jarrell Kaplan Courtesy of The Harrison Studio)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">One the one hand, they inspired a branch of the Dutch government to change its approach to urban planning as a result of their \u003ca href=\"http://theharrisonstudio.net/?page_id=534\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u003cem>Green Heart of Holland\u003c/em>\u003c/a> project; on the other, they caused political uproar in England during \u003ca href=\"http://theharrisonstudio.net/?page_id=192\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">an exhibition at London’s Hayward Gallery\u003c/a> involving the electrocution of catfish. (The controversy was later transformed into a \u003ca href=\"http://www.tete-a-tete.org.uk/catfish-conundrum/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">chamber opera\u003c/a>.) \u003c/span>\u003cspan style=\"font-weight: 400\">You can read and listen to a KQED profile of the Harrisons and their epic career \u003ca href=\"https://www.kqed.org/arts/11314278/how-two-santa-cruz-artists-changed-the-course-of-environmental-history\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here\u003c/a>. \u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The inspiration for this latest project at the UCSC Arboretum came more than two years ago, when the Harrisons happened to stroll past the three, then-decrepit domes and saw an opportunity to renovate and convert them into testing grounds for local plants facing the effects of climate change. “Nature is pretty opportunistic,” Harrison says. “And artists are pretty opportunistic, too.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Two of the domes had been completely shut off and empty and one of them was being used for a crafting group,” says Martin Quigley, executive director of the UCSC Arboretum and the Harrisons’ main collaborator on the project. “All of them were in very bad repair. So this has revitalized the whole area.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s new fabric on the domes, and a fresh, stable framework, plus new landscaping all around the area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926522\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1926522\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"UCSC Arboretum executive director Martin Quigley.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0665-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">UCSC Arboretum executive director Martin Quigley. \u003ccite>(Photo: Chloe Veltman/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Each \u003cem>Future Garden\u003c/em> dome houses an assortment of 16 native plants, chosen chiefly for their likely resilience in the face of sudden, drastic temperature and water fluctuations. Species on display include yarrow, fescue and coyote mint. Some of the plants are edible. Some have medicinal properties. Many have also been a staple of Native American life in the region for thousands of years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After a year of establishing the plants, the project team members plan to start playing with the conditions inside each dome. One dome will experience heat spikes in summer months and less than normal rain during the winter, similar to a continental desert. One dome will mimic coastal temperate conditions in the Pacific northwest, with ambient temperatures and summer rainfall. The third dome will experience both heat and water spikes amid warmer than average temperatures, mimicking subtropical conditions.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Outside the domes, the same species have been planted in small walled gardens around each dome to provide a set of control experiments.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926524\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1926524\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"Inside one of the eco-domes.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0680-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Inside one of the eco-domes. \u003ccite>(Photo: Chloe Veltman/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>“Climate change isn’t about a slow steady temperature increase,” says Quigley. “It’s about spikes and randomness that increase. And because these domes are smallish, it’s very easy to manipulate that in a strong way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Future Garde\u003c/em>n is part of a larger, ongoing investigation by the Harrisons into the survival of species in the face of climate change, entitled \u003cem>\u003ca href=\"http://theharrisonstudio.net/art-projects-2/force-majeure-synthesis-2009-present\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Force Majeure\u003c/a>. \u003c/em>The Harrisons co-opted the legal term “force majeure” for this body of work, which means a huge power that cannot be controlled, not unlike the fast-encroaching water levels and rising temperatures we’re experiencing on the planet today.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926521\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1926521\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"Artist Newton Harrison\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0661-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Artist Newton Harrison today. The artist’s wife and long-term creative partner Helen Mayer Harrison recently passed away. \u003ccite>(Photo: Chloe Veltman/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Another \u003cem>Force Majeure\u003c/em> project, at the University of California Berkeley’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.ucnrs.org/reserves/sagehen-creek-field-station.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sagehen Creek Field Station\u003c/a> in the Eastern Sierra Nevada, is already starting to see results. For the four-year-old installation, artists collaborated with field station scientists to physically move groups of plant species to different altitude levels. The aim is to help seedlings — such as wild rose and red fir — become resilient to the warming effects of climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“We found something rather astonishing, after drought and all the other problems it could possibly have,” says Harrison. “Of the 21 species we installed, about six — or 25 percent — live at all levels. That’s success.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_1926523\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 800px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1926523\" src=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-800x600.jpg\" alt=\"A 'Future Garden' eco-dome.\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-800x600.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-160x120.jpg 160w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-768x576.jpg 768w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-1020x765.jpg 1020w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-1200x900.jpg 1200w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-1180x885.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-960x720.jpg 960w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-240x180.jpg 240w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-375x281.jpg 375w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2018/06/IMG_0675-520x390.jpg 520w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A ‘Future Garden’ eco-dome. \u003ccite>(Photo: Chloe Veltman/KQED)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Although he has reason to be mildly optimistic, Harrison continues to worry about what our hot, dry future might look like. And though it’s a controversial idea, he believes finding a way to help a few, hardy species learn to become more adaptable to rising temperatures is ultimately more likely to succeed than trying to save many already-endangered species from dying out.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“An awful lot of the experimentation that receives grants aims to save the most endangered species, which if the temperature gets hot enough, are not inherently savable,” Harrison says. “We take exactly the opposite position. We look for the most resilient species.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>“Future Garden for the Central Coast of California” is presented by UCSC’s Institute of the Arts and Sciences.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> \u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/1926500/a-glimpse-into-the-future-of-northern-california-plantlife","authors":["8608","11088"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40","science_3423"],"tags":["science_1678","science_3370","science_311","science_727"],"featImg":"science_1928056","label":"science"},"science_603140":{"type":"posts","id":"science_603140","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"603140","score":null,"sort":[1459189722000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"pacific-ocean-pattern-could-predict-u-s-heat-waves","title":"Pacific Ocean Pattern Could Predict U.S. Heat Waves","publishDate":1459189722,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Pacific Ocean Pattern Could Predict U.S. Heat Waves | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>In the summer of 2012, a series of punishing heat waves roasted a large portion of the U.S. with \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-heat-wave-rolls-on-as-July-warmest-month-on-record-14773\">record-breaking temperatures\u003c/a> that helped spawn one of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-drought-inches-up-in-us-historical-rankings-14818\">most widespread and costliest droughts\u003c/a> to hit the country in decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Combined, the blistering temperatures and drought cost some $31.5 billion and led to dozens of deaths. The heat was so intense that it melted roads and airport runways.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”55yb5ocAOi72b5skbecQTqbNo12PsiS8″]In May of that year, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its forecast for the summer, it had \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/lack-of-warning-on-2012-us-drought-reflects-flaws-in-forecasting-14823\">predicted normal temperatures\u003c/a> for the Midwest and Northeast — a forecast that clearly fell short.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such seasonal forecasting is notoriously difficult, but a new study detailed Monday in the journal \u003ca href=\"http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/ngeo2687\">Nature Geoscience\u003c/a> points to a way to potentially better predict the type of \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-heat-climate-change-19641\">extreme heat\u003c/a> that engulfed the country that summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By identifying a pattern of Pacific Ocean temperatures that seems to precede major heat events in the eastern U.S., the study could help forecasters give farmers, cities and utilities more time to prepare. Such early warnings will become more and more critical as the world continues to warm and heat waves become more frequent and more intense.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s been very hard to get accurate, long lead-time prediction,” \u003ca href=\"https://earth.stanford.edu/noah-diffenbaugh\">Noah Diffenbaugh\u003c/a>, a climate scientist at Stanford University who wasn’t involved with the research, said. “This paper is kind of extending our potential to have this longer time-scale predictability.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Ocean Pattern Pops Up\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://staff.ucar.edu/users/mckinnon\">Karen McKinnon\u003c/a> and her colleagues found the connection to Pacific Ocean temperatures by first looking at daily temperature data for the period from late June to late August from 1,613 weather stations across the U.S. going back to 1982. They divided the country into broad regions that tend to experience extreme heat at the same time. (A day with extreme heat was defined as one where the warmest 5 percent of weather stations in the region had temperatures at least 11.7°F, or 6.5°C, above average.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They focused on the largest grouping to emerge, which spanned from the Midwest down into the Southeast and up the coast to the Northeast. That area coincides with major population centers, as well as key farmland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers then looked to see if those days of extreme heat tended to correspond with any particular patterns of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific. One pattern “just popped up super clearly,” McKinnon, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said. In an area spanning the breadth of the ocean basin and roughly the same latitudes as the U.S., they found cooler-than-normal waters to the north butted up against warmer-than-normal waters to the south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And not only did the pattern show up at the same time as the extreme heat in the eastern U.S., the team could trace it back in time to before the heat wave hit and use it to predict the likelihood of the extreme hot weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers found the ocean pattern could be used to predict increased odds for extreme heat in the broad region up to 50 days out, with the skill of the predictions increasing closer to the event as the ocean pattern evolved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The team used the pattern to do a “hindcast” of the punishing summer of 2012, and were able to predict increased odds of extreme heat for the end of June as early as mid-May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The pattern could also be used to predict extreme heat for some individual stations, the team found, mostly in a region in the middle of the country. The clearer connection there is likely due to the fact that the domes of hot air associated with heat waves tend to be centered on that area, McKinnon said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Exactly why the ocean pattern and extreme eastern U.S. heat are connected isn’t yet clear. The two main ideas, McKinnon said, are that the ocean pattern is influencing the atmosphere in a way that leads to the eventual heat dome buildup, or that both the ocean pattern and the heat dome are caused by some other third factor. McKinnon and her colleagues are working now with computer models to “try and tease apart a little bit more” what’s happening, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>‘Good Case Study’\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>One of the clearest implications of the \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/global-temperature\">overall warming of the planet\u003c/a> as greenhouse gases trap more and more heat in the atmosphere is that heat waves will \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/searing-heat-waves-could-become-annual-threat-20066\">become more common and more intense\u003c/a>, raising concerns about future impacts to agriculture, infrastructure and vulnerable populations. Such concerns could make long-term predictions particularly valuable in the future because “we can make decisions about how to manage risk,” Diffenbaugh said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One hurdle to jump, though, is to try to use this ocean pattern to make forecasts in real-time “to see if it really works,”\u003ca href=\"http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/\">Michael Ventrice\u003c/a>, an operational meteorologist with the Weather Company, said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McKinnon and her team are planning to do just that this year, possibly starting sometime in April.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now, the models that Ventrice and other seasonal forecasters use are predicting one of the hottest summers in recent years. The ocean pattern that McKinnon and her colleagues identified, though, is flipped, which would tend to suggest cooler summer weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a good case study,” Ventrice, who was not involved with the research, said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Obviously it’s a little bit scary,” McKinnon said of doing real-time forecasts, because even if their forecast track record is good across many years, it could be off for a particular year. Other myriad climate factors play a role in the weather, and any one of them could overwhelm the Pacific Ocean connection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While there’s still work to do to understand and firm up the link between extreme heat and Pacific Ocean temperature patterns, the possibility is intriguing because “we’re always looking for better ways” to extend seasonal predictions, Ventrice said.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":null,"status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704930430,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":23,"wordCount":1037},"headData":{"title":"Pacific Ocean Pattern Could Predict U.S. Heat Waves | KQED","description":"In the summer of 2012, a series of punishing heat waves roasted a large portion of the U.S. with record-breaking temperatures that helped spawn one of the most widespread and costliest droughts to hit the country in decades. Combined, the blistering temperatures and drought cost some $31.5 billion and led to dozens of deaths. The","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"nprByline":"\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/what-we-do/people/andrea-thompson\">Andrea Thompson\u003c/a>, Climate Central","path":"/science/603140/pacific-ocean-pattern-could-predict-u-s-heat-waves","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>In the summer of 2012, a series of punishing heat waves roasted a large portion of the U.S. with \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-heat-wave-rolls-on-as-July-warmest-month-on-record-14773\">record-breaking temperatures\u003c/a> that helped spawn one of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-drought-inches-up-in-us-historical-rankings-14818\">most widespread and costliest droughts\u003c/a> to hit the country in decades.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Combined, the blistering temperatures and drought cost some $31.5 billion and led to dozens of deaths. The heat was so intense that it melted roads and airport runways.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>In May of that year, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its forecast for the summer, it had \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/lack-of-warning-on-2012-us-drought-reflects-flaws-in-forecasting-14823\">predicted normal temperatures\u003c/a> for the Midwest and Northeast — a forecast that clearly fell short.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Such seasonal forecasting is notoriously difficult, but a new study detailed Monday in the journal \u003ca href=\"http://nature.com/articles/doi:10.1038/ngeo2687\">Nature Geoscience\u003c/a> points to a way to potentially better predict the type of \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-heat-climate-change-19641\">extreme heat\u003c/a> that engulfed the country that summer.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>By identifying a pattern of Pacific Ocean temperatures that seems to precede major heat events in the eastern U.S., the study could help forecasters give farmers, cities and utilities more time to prepare. Such early warnings will become more and more critical as the world continues to warm and heat waves become more frequent and more intense.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“It’s been very hard to get accurate, long lead-time prediction,” \u003ca href=\"https://earth.stanford.edu/noah-diffenbaugh\">Noah Diffenbaugh\u003c/a>, a climate scientist at Stanford University who wasn’t involved with the research, said. “This paper is kind of extending our potential to have this longer time-scale predictability.”\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>Ocean Pattern Pops Up\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"https://staff.ucar.edu/users/mckinnon\">Karen McKinnon\u003c/a> and her colleagues found the connection to Pacific Ocean temperatures by first looking at daily temperature data for the period from late June to late August from 1,613 weather stations across the U.S. going back to 1982. They divided the country into broad regions that tend to experience extreme heat at the same time. (A day with extreme heat was defined as one where the warmest 5 percent of weather stations in the region had temperatures at least 11.7°F, or 6.5°C, above average.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They focused on the largest grouping to emerge, which spanned from the Midwest down into the Southeast and up the coast to the Northeast. That area coincides with major population centers, as well as key farmland.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers then looked to see if those days of extreme heat tended to correspond with any particular patterns of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific. One pattern “just popped up super clearly,” McKinnon, a postdoctoral researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said. In an area spanning the breadth of the ocean basin and roughly the same latitudes as the U.S., they found cooler-than-normal waters to the north butted up against warmer-than-normal waters to the south.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And not only did the pattern show up at the same time as the extreme heat in the eastern U.S., the team could trace it back in time to before the heat wave hit and use it to predict the likelihood of the extreme hot weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The researchers found the ocean pattern could be used to predict increased odds for extreme heat in the broad region up to 50 days out, with the skill of the predictions increasing closer to the event as the ocean pattern evolved.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The team used the pattern to do a “hindcast” of the punishing summer of 2012, and were able to predict increased odds of extreme heat for the end of June as early as mid-May.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The pattern could also be used to predict extreme heat for some individual stations, the team found, mostly in a region in the middle of the country. The clearer connection there is likely due to the fact that the domes of hot air associated with heat waves tend to be centered on that area, McKinnon said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Exactly why the ocean pattern and extreme eastern U.S. heat are connected isn’t yet clear. The two main ideas, McKinnon said, are that the ocean pattern is influencing the atmosphere in a way that leads to the eventual heat dome buildup, or that both the ocean pattern and the heat dome are caused by some other third factor. McKinnon and her colleagues are working now with computer models to “try and tease apart a little bit more” what’s happening, she said.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>‘Good Case Study’\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>One of the clearest implications of the \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/global-temperature\">overall warming of the planet\u003c/a> as greenhouse gases trap more and more heat in the atmosphere is that heat waves will \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/searing-heat-waves-could-become-annual-threat-20066\">become more common and more intense\u003c/a>, raising concerns about future impacts to agriculture, infrastructure and vulnerable populations. Such concerns could make long-term predictions particularly valuable in the future because “we can make decisions about how to manage risk,” Diffenbaugh said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>One hurdle to jump, though, is to try to use this ocean pattern to make forecasts in real-time “to see if it really works,”\u003ca href=\"http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/\">Michael Ventrice\u003c/a>, an operational meteorologist with the Weather Company, said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>McKinnon and her team are planning to do just that this year, possibly starting sometime in April.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Right now, the models that Ventrice and other seasonal forecasters use are predicting one of the hottest summers in recent years. The ocean pattern that McKinnon and her colleagues identified, though, is flipped, which would tend to suggest cooler summer weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This is a good case study,” Ventrice, who was not involved with the research, said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Obviously it’s a little bit scary,” McKinnon said of doing real-time forecasts, because even if their forecast track record is good across many years, it could be off for a particular year. Other myriad climate factors play a role in the weather, and any one of them could overwhelm the Pacific Ocean connection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While there’s still work to do to understand and firm up the link between extreme heat and Pacific Ocean temperature patterns, the possibility is intriguing because “we’re always looking for better ways” to extend seasonal predictions, Ventrice said.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/603140/pacific-ocean-pattern-could-predict-u-s-heat-waves","authors":["byline_science_603140"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40"],"tags":["science_1678","science_383"],"featImg":"science_603223","label":"science"},"science_581726":{"type":"posts","id":"science_581726","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"581726","score":null,"sort":[1458153097000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"how-a-monster-el-nino-transforms-the-worlds-weather","title":"How a Monster El Niño Transforms the World’s Weather","publishDate":1458153097,"format":"standard","headTitle":"How a Monster El Niño Transforms the World’s Weather | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>From crippling drought in southern Africa to a record number of February tornadoes in the U.S. Southeast, an exceptionally strong El Niño has been making headlines around the globe as it tampers with the world’s weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the event has begun its slow decline, those wide-ranging impacts will continue to be felt for weeks and months to come — good news for those in California, who need El Niño-fueled rains, but bad news for the many areas, like Indonesia, which is suffering from deep drought, food and water shortages, and wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Already this year, El Niño-related weather has cost billions of dollars in damage and left some 100 million people \u003ca href=\"http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/feb/17/el-nino-leaves-100-million-people-hungry-short-of-water-droughts-floods-worldwide\">facing food and water shortages\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Through the interactive graphic below, Climate Central takes a look at how this major climate pattern typically influences the world’s weather, what it can mean for societies in the areas it affects, and what has actually been happening with this particular event, which ranks amongst the strongest on record. After all, \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/comparing-el-nino-to-1997-19278\">no two El Niños are the same\u003c/a>. For instance, while Southern California was drenched during the 1997-1998 El Niño, it has remained disconcertingly dry this time around.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"720\" height=\"571\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/wgts/el-nino-impacts/index.html?utm_source=ext&utm_medium=embed&utm_campaign=2016ElNinoImpacts\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>First, the big picture: El Niño is most known for \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/why-do-we-care-so-much-about-el-nino-17806\">shifting a large pool of warm ocean waters\u003c/a> from the western to the central and eastern tropical Pacific. That shift changes where heat is pumped into the tropical atmosphere, disrupting its typical circulation patterns. Those local disruptions cause a domino effect through the global atmosphere that can alter weather thousands of miles away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are two main circulation patterns that are affected. All around the tropics is a pattern of rising and sinking air — like a vertical loop — called the \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy\">Walker Circulation\u003c/a>. The rising air corresponds to areas of unsettled, rainy weather, while the sinking air creates a stable, dry clime. Normally in the tropical Pacific, a major area of rising air is found over the western portions, where the warmest waters are found. With the eastward shift from El Niño, that rising air (and its sinking counterpart) move eastward as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This displacement shifts the other branches of the Walker Circulation around the tropics, pushing wetter weather over areas that might normally be dry and vice versa. These areas typically see some of the strongest impacts from El Niño because they are in a region more directly linked to it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The changes in the Walker Circulation in turn cause shifts in another looping pattern called the \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-enso-leads-cascade-global-impacts\">Hadley Circulation\u003c/a> that runs north-to-south to the Walker’s east-to-west. And those changes in the Hadley Circulation can affect the subtropical jet stream — an area of fast-moving air that guides storms — in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. This is how El Niño can affect regions far from the tropics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The changes in these main circulation patterns interact with other factors, like seasonal monsoons and other major climate patterns, which is why none of the typical impacts associated with El Niño are guaranteed. It merely shifts the odds in their favor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Let’s dive in for a closer look at some of the local and regional impacts and what has actually played out this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_581808\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 450px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-581808\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic.jpg\" alt=\"How the Walker Circulation changes from neutral to El Niño conditions.\" width=\"450\" height=\"451\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic.jpg 450w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-400x401.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-32x32.jpg 32w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-64x64.jpg 64w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-96x96.jpg 96w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-128x128.jpg 128w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-75x75.jpg 75w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">How the Walker Circulation changes from neutral to El Niño conditions. \u003ccite>(Fiona Martin)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Southeast Asia\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Indonesia, and Southeast Asia more broadly, is one of the areas most directly impacted by El Niño. The eastward shift in the Walker Circulation means the normal area of rising air and rainy weather is shifted eastward as well, leaving the Indonesian area high and dry during much of the year. This can lead to drought that can cause water shortages and crop and livestock losses from dried up fields. Those losses then lead to food shortages and rising prices, and can also increase the odds of large wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year has seen major drought grip Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and much of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/201601#det-reg-pacis-usapi\">U.S. Pacific Island territories\u003c/a>. In Indonesia there were \u003ca href=\"https://www.irinnews.org/report/102140/el-nino-brings-drought-hunger-indonesia-and-south-pacific\">major delays\u003c/a> in the planting of the rice crop, leading to concerns over food shortages. And when farmers set their usual fires to clear brush for planting, the dry conditions caused many to burn out of control, causing one of the biggest burn years on record and leading to \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/indonesias-fires-climate-public-health-19601\">a pall of smoke\u003c/a> over the region. In Vietnam, drought has led to \u003ca href=\"http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/vietnam-hit-by-worst/2562802.html\">salinization issues in the Mekong Delta\u003c/a> region, home to some 20 million people and a major rice growing area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Drought has caused the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia to \u003ca href=\"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/sotc/drought/2016/01/RMI-Proclamation-Declaring-State-of-Emergency-160203.pdf\">declare states of emergency\u003c/a>, with some islands enacting water rationing and having to have water shipped in.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Australia\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>That same eastward shift of storm activity tends to bring drier conditions to northern Australia during the Southern Hemisphere summer and more broadly to the east in the winter. It also tends to bring warmer summer weather to southeast Australia because of the larger mass of stable, subsiding air in place. During El Niño years, drought and wildfires also become a concern here.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_581810\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 550px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-581810\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/Australia_CC_image.jpg\" alt=\"A wildfire burns along the Great Ocean Road in Victoria, Australia in December 2015.\" width=\"550\" height=\"396\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/Australia_CC_image.jpg 550w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/Australia_CC_image-400x288.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A wildfire burns along the Great Ocean Road in Victoria, Australia in December 2015. \u003ccite>(Victoria County Fire Authority)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>So far this year, Australia has seen a mixed bag of El Niño impacts. While dry conditions have been in place in much of the usual areas, some of the inland regions of the eastern part of the country actually had fairly normal rains. That may be due to exceptionally warm Indian Ocean waters providing more moisture to storm systems. The southeast has seen some\u003ca href=\"http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/10/perth-heatwave-temperatures-climb-above-40c-for-fourth-day-in-a-row\">major heat waves\u003c/a>, though, with temperatures sometimes climbing above 100°F (40°C). The hot and dry conditions have helped create more favorable wildfire conditions, with several burning in Victoria this year. One of the worst \u003ca href=\"http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-25/great-ocean-road-fire-destroys-dozens-of-homes/7054028\">destroyed 116 houses\u003c/a> around Christmas.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>India\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>India also tends to see drier weather during the Northern Hemisphere summer because the changes to atmospheric circulation patterns delay the onset of the seasonal monsoons. Monsoon rains are critical to supplying water for drinking and agriculture, and El Niño years tend to see drought develop in parts of India.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This summer, rainfall in India was 14 percent below normal and reservoirs were down by 30 percent, according to \u003ca href=\"http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/El%20Nino%20Advisory%20Note%20Dec%202015%20Final.pdf\">a United Nations report\u003c/a>. That led to shortages of drinking water in some areas and caused rice, corn and soybean fields to dry up, setting off worries for food shortages and \u003ca href=\"http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-rising-food-prices-to-hit-rural-india-in-2016-1242073\">inflated food prices\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño can lead to wetter weather in southern India, which also happened this year, with torrential rains that caused \u003ca href=\"http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/india-tamil-nadu-chennai-flooding-continues-wet-november/53943597\">major flooding\u003c/a> in the area around Chennai.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Pacific Ocean\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Moving back out into the Pacific Ocean, the warmer ocean waters can cause bleaching of coral reefs, killing them. This event has seen one of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/longest-global-coral-bleaching-20062\">longest global bleaching events\u003c/a> ever recorded, according to experts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Warmer ocean waters in that area also provide more fuel for hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean basins. The atmospheric changes El Niño brings also mean more favorable winds for storm formation. This year saw\u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/a-tale-of-two-hurricane-seasons\">above-normal hurricane activity\u003c/a> in the region, including the strongest storm ever directly measured in the Western Hemisphere. \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/patricia-record-setting-monster-beeline-for-mexico-19595\">Hurricane Patricia\u003c/a>, which had winds that clocked in at 200 mph, hit the west coast of Mexico, though its effects were mostly confined to less populated areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>South America\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Parts of South America are also more directly affected by El Niño. The warmer ocean waters off its west coast tend to bring warmer weather to coastal areas during the Southern Hemisphere winter. Those waters also make more moisture available to storms. Combined with changes to storm tracks linked to atmospheric circulation changes, this can mean wetter winter weather for central Chile. Several rounds of storms during this event had some benefits, bringing moisture to a region in drought and \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-weather-idUSKCN0S127O20151007\">snows to ski resorts\u003c/a>. But the rains also brought flooding and mudslides. A rare storm event in March saw parts of the bone dry Atacama Desert receive a \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/flooding-chile%E2%80%99s-atacama-desert-after-years%E2%80%99-worth-rain-one-day\">year’s worth of rain\u003c/a> in just one day. The Copiapó River — dry for nearly 17 years — filled to overflowing and flash floods swept through several towns. Come spring, that influx of water led to a \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/29/the-driest-place-on-earth-is-covered-in-pink-flowers-after-a-crazy-year-of-rain/\">surreal bloom of flowers\u003c/a> across the desert that tends to coincide with rainy El Niño years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The chain of changes to the Walker and Hadley circulations also tends to bring rainier weather to an area that includes Paraguay, northern Argentina, part of southern Brazil and Uruguay during the Southern Hemisphere summer. In December and January, heavy rains caused the \u003ca href=\"http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87334\">worst flooding in the region\u003c/a> in 50 years, displacing more than 200,000 people. The Paraguay River in Asunción reached more than 16 feet above its normal level in December. Thousands of acres of cropland were inundated and concerns were heightened for the spread of mosquito-borne disease like dengue fever and the Zika virus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In northern Brazil and other countries in the north of South America, the eastward shift of the Walker Circulation brings sinking air and drier conditions. Those come with the usual tendency toward drought, water shortages and crop and livestock losses. Drought and those follow-on impacts \u003ca href=\"http://news.trust.org//item/20151125082700-93r0x/?source=leadCarousel\">have been recorded\u003c/a> in northeastern Brazil, an area already vulnerable due to poverty and remoteness.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some \u003ca href=\"http://health.usnews.com/health-news/articles/2016-02-05/record-heat-drought-may-explain-zika-outbreak-in-brazil-research\">recent research\u003c/a> has suggested that the exceptional heat and drought in the area may actually have helped fuel the rise of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/zika-virus-climate-change-19970\">Zika virus epidemic\u003c/a> in the region. Heat promotes the growth of the mosquito that carries the disease, and during drought, residents tend to store water in containers in which the mosquitoes can breed.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Central America and the Caribbean\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Further north, drier weather also tends to grip Central America and the Caribbean for the same reasons as northern South America. The area that spans Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador is experiencing one of its worst droughts in decades, according to the \u003ca href=\"http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ECHO%20Crisis%20Report%20no%201-%20World%20El%20Nino.pdf\">European Commission\u003c/a>. Major crop losses have caused huge financial hits to farmers and left some 3.5 million people facing food shortages, the agency reported.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the eastern Caribbean, 2015 was the driest year on record and led to water restrictions on many islands, including St. Lucia, St. Kitts, Barbados and \u003ca href=\"http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/how-puerto-rico-is-coping-with-the-worst-drought-in-decades/\">Puerto Rico\u003c/a>. Diminished water supplies also led to crop losses in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and other areas. As of August,\u003ca href=\"https://anumetservice.wordpress.com/2015/08/17/antigua-is-out-of-surface-water-again/\">Antigua had no surface water\u003c/a> supplies, and by October it was using 100 percent desalinated water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The subsiding air that leads to drought also tends to help tamp down on hurricane formation in the region. This year saw a \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/a-tale-of-two-hurricane-seasons\">below-average Atlantic hurricane season\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>United States\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Not far away, though, El Niño brings the opposite conditions to Florida. The shifts in the Hadley Circulation affect the subtropical jet stream that crosses the U.S., pushing it southward and making it extend further eastward. This puts Florida in a prime location for storms during the winter months, which is normally its dry season. It also ups the odds for tornadoes thanks to the added energy from the jet stream.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Florida did have a \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/el-nino-boosting-south-floridas-wild-winter-rains\">wetter than normal winter\u003c/a> this year, and its southern tip had its wettest year on record. It also \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/record-high-number-of-tornadoes-hit-southeast-in-february\">saw 18 tornadoes\u003c/a> in January and February, compared to the seven it usually sees during those months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While tornado activity may typically rise in Florida in El Niño years, it is usually tamped down in the area of the central U.S. known as Tornado Alley. The more southward jet blocks the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that is key to fueling spring storms there. An experimental seasonal tornado forecast \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-tornado-season-19910\">favors a below-average tornado season\u003c/a> there this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The tweak to the jet stream also tends to favor wetter weather over Southern California — much needed this year after four years of deep drought. While \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/el-nino-helps-fuel-string-of-california-storms\">storms have been hitting California\u003c/a>, they have mostly affected the northern portions of the state because the jet stream has been slightly further north than is typical during an El Niño. The rains shut off almost completely in February, \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/warm-west-cold-east-pattern-re-emerges-cuts-off-california-snows\">bringing hot and dry weather\u003c/a> to the state, though storms \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/march-miracle-el-nino-fueled-storms-return-to-california\">have since returned\u003c/a>and look to bring at least some rain to Southern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Across the northern tier of the U.S., from the Northeast all the way up into eastern Alaska, El Niño tends to favor warmer than normal conditions. That has indeed been the case this year, with nearly all northern states recording one of their top 10 warmest winters. Alaska saw its \u003ca href=\"https://www.climatecentral.org/news/winter-warmest-on-record-for-us-20110\">second-warmest winter\u003c/a> in the books, which has contributed to a \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/winter-snow-a-no-show-in-parts-of-alaska\">lack of snow\u003c/a> in varied locations there. That dearth of snow can have ecological impacts and promote the spread of invasive species. El Niño wasn’t the only reason Alaska was warm, though, as the Arctic more broadly was exceptionally warm this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Africa\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>And, finally, across the Atlantic in Africa, some of the populations most vulnerable to El Niño’s impacts are found.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the Southern Hemisphere summer, the eastward shift of the Walker Circulation leads to rising air over Kenya, southern Somalia and southern Ethiopia, which can enhance seasonal rains. Increased rains can lead to flooding, mudslides and outbreaks of diseases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.kenyaredcross.org/PDF/El%20NinoSituationReport28.pdf\">Heavy rains\u003c/a> in the area began in late October, inundating villages and agricultural lands. By January, more than 100,000 people had been displaced and 112 killed, according to the \u003ca href=\"http://floodlist.com/africa/kenya-3-months-of-flooding-leaves-112-dead-and-over-100000-displaced\">International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies\u003c/a>. Authorities are concerned about the spread of both waterborne diseases, such as cholera, and mosquito-borne ones, particularly \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-east-africa-and-rift-valley-fever\">Rift Valley Fever\u003c/a>, which tends to occur in years with unusually heavy rainfall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Just to the north, in Ethiopia and Somalia, El Niño has brought dry conditions that have exacerbated a drought and led to crop failures and widespread livestock deaths, according to the \u003ca href=\"http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=53381#.VucLz4wrKRs\">United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Drought has also gripped \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/not-so-rainy-season-drought-southern-africa-january-2016\">large parts of southern Africa\u003c/a>, particularly the northeast of South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. The changes to the Walker and Hadley circulations interact with the normal monsoon there and tend to suppress monsoon rains, leading to drought, crop losses and food and water shortages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Severe rainfall deficits this year have lead to widespread drought that has decimated the maize crop, costing hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Zimbabwe \u003ca href=\"http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/zimbabwean-president-robert-mugabe-declares-state-of-disaster-as-drought-means-24m-need-food-aid-a6857046.html\">declared a state of disaster\u003c/a> as some 2.5 million people are in need of food aid. South Africa, normally an exporter of corn, is expected to have to import it this year to feed its citizens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The drought has also severely reduced the flow of rivers that feed hydropower dams, leading to power rationing and even blackouts in the region. The flow down the majestic Victoria Falls has \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-drought-victoriafalls-idUSKCN0W340I?feedType=RSS&feedName=environmentNews\">reached a 30-year low\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While El Niño has shown signs in recent weeks that it is beginning to weaken, it will likely be late summer or early fall before it fully dissipates. Its weather affects around the world are expected to continue for several more months, and the impacts of that weather could reverberate for years to come, making it one for the record books.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a> \u003cem>is an independent organization that researches and reports on climate change.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"An exceptionally strong El Niño has tampered with the world’s weather, bringing drought, floods and heat waves","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704930481,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":true,"iframeSrcs":["http://www.climatecentral.org/wgts/el-nino-impacts/index.html"],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":44,"wordCount":2593},"headData":{"title":"How a Monster El Niño Transforms the World’s Weather | KQED","description":"An exceptionally strong El Niño has tampered with the world’s weather, bringing drought, floods and heat waves","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"nprByline":"\u003cstrong>Andrea Thompson, Climate Central\u003c/strong>","path":"/science/581726/how-a-monster-el-nino-transforms-the-worlds-weather","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>From crippling drought in southern Africa to a record number of February tornadoes in the U.S. Southeast, an exceptionally strong El Niño has been making headlines around the globe as it tampers with the world’s weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While the event has begun its slow decline, those wide-ranging impacts will continue to be felt for weeks and months to come — good news for those in California, who need El Niño-fueled rains, but bad news for the many areas, like Indonesia, which is suffering from deep drought, food and water shortages, and wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Already this year, El Niño-related weather has cost billions of dollars in damage and left some 100 million people \u003ca href=\"http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/feb/17/el-nino-leaves-100-million-people-hungry-short-of-water-droughts-floods-worldwide\">facing food and water shortages\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Through the interactive graphic below, Climate Central takes a look at how this major climate pattern typically influences the world’s weather, what it can mean for societies in the areas it affects, and what has actually been happening with this particular event, which ranks amongst the strongest on record. After all, \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/comparing-el-nino-to-1997-19278\">no two El Niños are the same\u003c/a>. For instance, while Southern California was drenched during the 1997-1998 El Niño, it has remained disconcertingly dry this time around.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c!-- iframe plugin v.4.3 wordpress.org/plugins/iframe/ -->\u003cbr>\n\u003ciframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"720\" height=\"571\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/wgts/el-nino-impacts/index.html?utm_source=ext&utm_medium=embed&utm_campaign=2016ElNinoImpacts\" class=\"iframe-class\">\u003c/iframe>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>First, the big picture: El Niño is most known for \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/why-do-we-care-so-much-about-el-nino-17806\">shifting a large pool of warm ocean waters\u003c/a> from the western to the central and eastern tropical Pacific. That shift changes where heat is pumped into the tropical atmosphere, disrupting its typical circulation patterns. Those local disruptions cause a domino effect through the global atmosphere that can alter weather thousands of miles away.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There are two main circulation patterns that are affected. All around the tropics is a pattern of rising and sinking air — like a vertical loop — called the \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy\">Walker Circulation\u003c/a>. The rising air corresponds to areas of unsettled, rainy weather, while the sinking air creates a stable, dry clime. Normally in the tropical Pacific, a major area of rising air is found over the western portions, where the warmest waters are found. With the eastward shift from El Niño, that rising air (and its sinking counterpart) move eastward as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This displacement shifts the other branches of the Walker Circulation around the tropics, pushing wetter weather over areas that might normally be dry and vice versa. These areas typically see some of the strongest impacts from El Niño because they are in a region more directly linked to it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The changes in the Walker Circulation in turn cause shifts in another looping pattern called the \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-enso-leads-cascade-global-impacts\">Hadley Circulation\u003c/a> that runs north-to-south to the Walker’s east-to-west. And those changes in the Hadley Circulation can affect the subtropical jet stream — an area of fast-moving air that guides storms — in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. This is how El Niño can affect regions far from the tropics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The changes in these main circulation patterns interact with other factors, like seasonal monsoons and other major climate patterns, which is why none of the typical impacts associated with El Niño are guaranteed. It merely shifts the odds in their favor.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Let’s dive in for a closer look at some of the local and regional impacts and what has actually played out this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_581808\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 450px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-581808\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic.jpg\" alt=\"How the Walker Circulation changes from neutral to El Niño conditions.\" width=\"450\" height=\"451\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic.jpg 450w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-400x401.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-32x32.jpg 32w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-64x64.jpg 64w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-96x96.jpg 96w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-128x128.jpg 128w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/NOAA_el-Nino-graphic-75x75.jpg 75w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">How the Walker Circulation changes from neutral to El Niño conditions. \u003ccite>(Fiona Martin)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Southeast Asia\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Indonesia, and Southeast Asia more broadly, is one of the areas most directly impacted by El Niño. The eastward shift in the Walker Circulation means the normal area of rising air and rainy weather is shifted eastward as well, leaving the Indonesian area high and dry during much of the year. This can lead to drought that can cause water shortages and crop and livestock losses from dried up fields. Those losses then lead to food shortages and rising prices, and can also increase the odds of large wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This year has seen major drought grip Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and much of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/201601#det-reg-pacis-usapi\">U.S. Pacific Island territories\u003c/a>. In Indonesia there were \u003ca href=\"https://www.irinnews.org/report/102140/el-nino-brings-drought-hunger-indonesia-and-south-pacific\">major delays\u003c/a> in the planting of the rice crop, leading to concerns over food shortages. And when farmers set their usual fires to clear brush for planting, the dry conditions caused many to burn out of control, causing one of the biggest burn years on record and leading to \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/indonesias-fires-climate-public-health-19601\">a pall of smoke\u003c/a> over the region. In Vietnam, drought has led to \u003ca href=\"http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/vietnam-hit-by-worst/2562802.html\">salinization issues in the Mekong Delta\u003c/a> region, home to some 20 million people and a major rice growing area.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Drought has caused the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia to \u003ca href=\"http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/sotc/drought/2016/01/RMI-Proclamation-Declaring-State-of-Emergency-160203.pdf\">declare states of emergency\u003c/a>, with some islands enacting water rationing and having to have water shipped in.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Australia\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>That same eastward shift of storm activity tends to bring drier conditions to northern Australia during the Southern Hemisphere summer and more broadly to the east in the winter. It also tends to bring warmer summer weather to southeast Australia because of the larger mass of stable, subsiding air in place. During El Niño years, drought and wildfires also become a concern here.\u003c/p>\n\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_581810\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 550px\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-581810\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/Australia_CC_image.jpg\" alt=\"A wildfire burns along the Great Ocean Road in Victoria, Australia in December 2015.\" width=\"550\" height=\"396\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/Australia_CC_image.jpg 550w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2016/03/Australia_CC_image-400x288.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\">\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A wildfire burns along the Great Ocean Road in Victoria, Australia in December 2015. \u003ccite>(Victoria County Fire Authority)\u003c/cite>\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>So far this year, Australia has seen a mixed bag of El Niño impacts. While dry conditions have been in place in much of the usual areas, some of the inland regions of the eastern part of the country actually had fairly normal rains. That may be due to exceptionally warm Indian Ocean waters providing more moisture to storm systems. The southeast has seen some\u003ca href=\"http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/10/perth-heatwave-temperatures-climb-above-40c-for-fourth-day-in-a-row\">major heat waves\u003c/a>, though, with temperatures sometimes climbing above 100°F (40°C). The hot and dry conditions have helped create more favorable wildfire conditions, with several burning in Victoria this year. One of the worst \u003ca href=\"http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-25/great-ocean-road-fire-destroys-dozens-of-homes/7054028\">destroyed 116 houses\u003c/a> around Christmas.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>India\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>India also tends to see drier weather during the Northern Hemisphere summer because the changes to atmospheric circulation patterns delay the onset of the seasonal monsoons. Monsoon rains are critical to supplying water for drinking and agriculture, and El Niño years tend to see drought develop in parts of India.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This summer, rainfall in India was 14 percent below normal and reservoirs were down by 30 percent, according to \u003ca href=\"http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/El%20Nino%20Advisory%20Note%20Dec%202015%20Final.pdf\">a United Nations report\u003c/a>. That led to shortages of drinking water in some areas and caused rice, corn and soybean fields to dry up, setting off worries for food shortages and \u003ca href=\"http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-rising-food-prices-to-hit-rural-india-in-2016-1242073\">inflated food prices\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>El Niño can lead to wetter weather in southern India, which also happened this year, with torrential rains that caused \u003ca href=\"http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/india-tamil-nadu-chennai-flooding-continues-wet-november/53943597\">major flooding\u003c/a> in the area around Chennai.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Pacific Ocean\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Moving back out into the Pacific Ocean, the warmer ocean waters can cause bleaching of coral reefs, killing them. This event has seen one of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/longest-global-coral-bleaching-20062\">longest global bleaching events\u003c/a> ever recorded, according to experts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Warmer ocean waters in that area also provide more fuel for hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean basins. The atmospheric changes El Niño brings also mean more favorable winds for storm formation. This year saw\u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/a-tale-of-two-hurricane-seasons\">above-normal hurricane activity\u003c/a> in the region, including the strongest storm ever directly measured in the Western Hemisphere. \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/patricia-record-setting-monster-beeline-for-mexico-19595\">Hurricane Patricia\u003c/a>, which had winds that clocked in at 200 mph, hit the west coast of Mexico, though its effects were mostly confined to less populated areas.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>South America\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Parts of South America are also more directly affected by El Niño. The warmer ocean waters off its west coast tend to bring warmer weather to coastal areas during the Southern Hemisphere winter. Those waters also make more moisture available to storms. Combined with changes to storm tracks linked to atmospheric circulation changes, this can mean wetter winter weather for central Chile. Several rounds of storms during this event had some benefits, bringing moisture to a region in drought and \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-weather-idUSKCN0S127O20151007\">snows to ski resorts\u003c/a>. But the rains also brought flooding and mudslides. A rare storm event in March saw parts of the bone dry Atacama Desert receive a \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/flooding-chile%E2%80%99s-atacama-desert-after-years%E2%80%99-worth-rain-one-day\">year’s worth of rain\u003c/a> in just one day. The Copiapó River — dry for nearly 17 years — filled to overflowing and flash floods swept through several towns. Come spring, that influx of water led to a \u003ca href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/29/the-driest-place-on-earth-is-covered-in-pink-flowers-after-a-crazy-year-of-rain/\">surreal bloom of flowers\u003c/a> across the desert that tends to coincide with rainy El Niño years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The chain of changes to the Walker and Hadley circulations also tends to bring rainier weather to an area that includes Paraguay, northern Argentina, part of southern Brazil and Uruguay during the Southern Hemisphere summer. In December and January, heavy rains caused the \u003ca href=\"http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87334\">worst flooding in the region\u003c/a> in 50 years, displacing more than 200,000 people. The Paraguay River in Asunción reached more than 16 feet above its normal level in December. Thousands of acres of cropland were inundated and concerns were heightened for the spread of mosquito-borne disease like dengue fever and the Zika virus.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In northern Brazil and other countries in the north of South America, the eastward shift of the Walker Circulation brings sinking air and drier conditions. Those come with the usual tendency toward drought, water shortages and crop and livestock losses. Drought and those follow-on impacts \u003ca href=\"http://news.trust.org//item/20151125082700-93r0x/?source=leadCarousel\">have been recorded\u003c/a> in northeastern Brazil, an area already vulnerable due to poverty and remoteness.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Some \u003ca href=\"http://health.usnews.com/health-news/articles/2016-02-05/record-heat-drought-may-explain-zika-outbreak-in-brazil-research\">recent research\u003c/a> has suggested that the exceptional heat and drought in the area may actually have helped fuel the rise of the \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/zika-virus-climate-change-19970\">Zika virus epidemic\u003c/a> in the region. Heat promotes the growth of the mosquito that carries the disease, and during drought, residents tend to store water in containers in which the mosquitoes can breed.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Central America and the Caribbean\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Further north, drier weather also tends to grip Central America and the Caribbean for the same reasons as northern South America. The area that spans Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador is experiencing one of its worst droughts in decades, according to the \u003ca href=\"http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ECHO%20Crisis%20Report%20no%201-%20World%20El%20Nino.pdf\">European Commission\u003c/a>. Major crop losses have caused huge financial hits to farmers and left some 3.5 million people facing food shortages, the agency reported.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the eastern Caribbean, 2015 was the driest year on record and led to water restrictions on many islands, including St. Lucia, St. Kitts, Barbados and \u003ca href=\"http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/how-puerto-rico-is-coping-with-the-worst-drought-in-decades/\">Puerto Rico\u003c/a>. Diminished water supplies also led to crop losses in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and other areas. As of August,\u003ca href=\"https://anumetservice.wordpress.com/2015/08/17/antigua-is-out-of-surface-water-again/\">Antigua had no surface water\u003c/a> supplies, and by October it was using 100 percent desalinated water.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The subsiding air that leads to drought also tends to help tamp down on hurricane formation in the region. This year saw a \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/a-tale-of-two-hurricane-seasons\">below-average Atlantic hurricane season\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>United States\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>Not far away, though, El Niño brings the opposite conditions to Florida. The shifts in the Hadley Circulation affect the subtropical jet stream that crosses the U.S., pushing it southward and making it extend further eastward. This puts Florida in a prime location for storms during the winter months, which is normally its dry season. It also ups the odds for tornadoes thanks to the added energy from the jet stream.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Florida did have a \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/el-nino-boosting-south-floridas-wild-winter-rains\">wetter than normal winter\u003c/a> this year, and its southern tip had its wettest year on record. It also \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/record-high-number-of-tornadoes-hit-southeast-in-february\">saw 18 tornadoes\u003c/a> in January and February, compared to the seven it usually sees during those months.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While tornado activity may typically rise in Florida in El Niño years, it is usually tamped down in the area of the central U.S. known as Tornado Alley. The more southward jet blocks the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that is key to fueling spring storms there. An experimental seasonal tornado forecast \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-tornado-season-19910\">favors a below-average tornado season\u003c/a> there this year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The tweak to the jet stream also tends to favor wetter weather over Southern California — much needed this year after four years of deep drought. While \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/el-nino-helps-fuel-string-of-california-storms\">storms have been hitting California\u003c/a>, they have mostly affected the northern portions of the state because the jet stream has been slightly further north than is typical during an El Niño. The rains shut off almost completely in February, \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/warm-west-cold-east-pattern-re-emerges-cuts-off-california-snows\">bringing hot and dry weather\u003c/a> to the state, though storms \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/march-miracle-el-nino-fueled-storms-return-to-california\">have since returned\u003c/a>and look to bring at least some rain to Southern California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Across the northern tier of the U.S., from the Northeast all the way up into eastern Alaska, El Niño tends to favor warmer than normal conditions. That has indeed been the case this year, with nearly all northern states recording one of their top 10 warmest winters. Alaska saw its \u003ca href=\"https://www.climatecentral.org/news/winter-warmest-on-record-for-us-20110\">second-warmest winter\u003c/a> in the books, which has contributed to a \u003ca href=\"http://wxshift.com/news/winter-snow-a-no-show-in-parts-of-alaska\">lack of snow\u003c/a> in varied locations there. That dearth of snow can have ecological impacts and promote the spread of invasive species. El Niño wasn’t the only reason Alaska was warm, though, as the Arctic more broadly was exceptionally warm this winter.\u003c/p>\n\u003ch3>\u003cstrong>Africa\u003c/strong>\u003c/h3>\n\u003cp>And, finally, across the Atlantic in Africa, some of the populations most vulnerable to El Niño’s impacts are found.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In the Southern Hemisphere summer, the eastward shift of the Walker Circulation leads to rising air over Kenya, southern Somalia and southern Ethiopia, which can enhance seasonal rains. Increased rains can lead to flooding, mudslides and outbreaks of diseases.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.kenyaredcross.org/PDF/El%20NinoSituationReport28.pdf\">Heavy rains\u003c/a> in the area began in late October, inundating villages and agricultural lands. By January, more than 100,000 people had been displaced and 112 killed, according to the \u003ca href=\"http://floodlist.com/africa/kenya-3-months-of-flooding-leaves-112-dead-and-over-100000-displaced\">International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies\u003c/a>. Authorities are concerned about the spread of both waterborne diseases, such as cholera, and mosquito-borne ones, particularly \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-east-africa-and-rift-valley-fever\">Rift Valley Fever\u003c/a>, which tends to occur in years with unusually heavy rainfall.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Just to the north, in Ethiopia and Somalia, El Niño has brought dry conditions that have exacerbated a drought and led to crop failures and widespread livestock deaths, according to the \u003ca href=\"http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=53381#.VucLz4wrKRs\">United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Drought has also gripped \u003ca href=\"https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/not-so-rainy-season-drought-southern-africa-january-2016\">large parts of southern Africa\u003c/a>, particularly the northeast of South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. The changes to the Walker and Hadley circulations interact with the normal monsoon there and tend to suppress monsoon rains, leading to drought, crop losses and food and water shortages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Severe rainfall deficits this year have lead to widespread drought that has decimated the maize crop, costing hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Zimbabwe \u003ca href=\"http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/zimbabwean-president-robert-mugabe-declares-state-of-disaster-as-drought-means-24m-need-food-aid-a6857046.html\">declared a state of disaster\u003c/a> as some 2.5 million people are in need of food aid. South Africa, normally an exporter of corn, is expected to have to import it this year to feed its citizens.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The drought has also severely reduced the flow of rivers that feed hydropower dams, leading to power rationing and even blackouts in the region. The flow down the majestic Victoria Falls has \u003ca href=\"http://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-drought-victoriafalls-idUSKCN0W340I?feedType=RSS&feedName=environmentNews\">reached a 30-year low\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While El Niño has shown signs in recent weeks that it is beginning to weaken, it will likely be late summer or early fall before it fully dissipates. Its weather affects around the world are expected to continue for several more months, and the impacts of that weather could reverberate for years to come, making it one for the record books.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a> \u003cem>is an independent organization that researches and reports on climate change.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/581726/how-a-monster-el-nino-transforms-the-worlds-weather","authors":["byline_science_581726"],"categories":["science_31","science_40"],"tags":["science_1678","science_194","science_371"],"featImg":"science_581803","label":"science"},"science_520469":{"type":"posts","id":"science_520469","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"520469","score":null,"sort":[1455066083000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"california-is-likely-to-be-stormier-with-climate-change","title":"Climate Change Could Bring Bigger, Wetter Storms to California, Study Says","publishDate":1455066083,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Climate Change Could Bring Bigger, Wetter Storms to California, Study Says | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>The types of storms that have been bringing heavy snow and rain to the West this winter, triggering landslides and floods while easing stubborn droughts, are likely to become stronger and more frequent, according to the results of a new study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The drenching storms have been falling from atmospheric rivers — high-altitude streams of moisture that carry much of the West’s water from the Pacific Ocean in sometimes-violent spurts that can lead to floods.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”BJnVHIn18HVUXBsJbtwYgOnWbIlKMh44″]The latest study to project an increase in the frequency and ferocity with which atmospheric rivers will reach the West Coast was \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL067392/full\">published over the weekend\u003c/a> in Geophysical Research Letters. Scientists described the analysis as more robust than earlier ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Days on which atmospheric rivers reach the West Coast each year could increase by a third this century, if greenhouse gas pollution continues to rise sharply, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory researchers concluded after running model simulations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Currently, the West Coast is likely to receive rain or snow from atmospheric rivers between 25 and 40 days each year, the analysis concluded. By century’s end, that’s expected to rise to between 35 and 55 days annually.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, the number of days each year on which the atmospheric rivers bring “extreme” amounts of rain and snow to the region could increase by more than a quarter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The results of the study were “consistent” with findings from earlier modeling-based studies, said Scripps Institution of Oceanography researcher \u003ca href=\"http://scrippsscholars.ucsd.edu/mralph\">Marty Ralph\u003c/a>, who wasn’t involved with it. He said the study went further than others in demonstrating that the projections were likely to play out in the real world, rather than being the result of any modeling errors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In California, the majority of the variation from one year to the next in total precipitation is the result of just the few wettest days each year,” said Ralph, who is based in California. “The \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-is-here-so-why-is-california-still-in-drought-19975\">drought we’re in\u003c/a> is a result of the absence of the atmospheric rivers.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although storms caused by atmospheric rivers are needed to quench landscapes and fill reservoirs, they can also deliver deadly hazards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Momentous floods of the early 1860s, which affected several Western states, evacuating Californian lawmakers from Sacramento after the Central Valley filled like a tub, were linked to a series of atmospheric rivers. Scientists warn such floods could again beset the region under a winter storm scenario \u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/\">they call ARkStorm\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What we noticed is that the entire West Coast of North America will experience increased atmospheric river frequency,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.pnl.gov/science/staff/staff_info.asp?staff_num=7433\">Samson Hagos\u003c/a>, a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory earth system scientist who led the new study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s largely because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Which would mean worse floods, more often.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The strongest atmospheric river events along the West Coast during the 20th century are strongly linked to flood events of historical significance,” said \u003ca href=\"https://earth.stanford.edu/daniel-swain\">Daniel Swain\u003c/a>, a PhD candidate at Stanford who researches extreme weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A reasonable inference to draw from these studies is that the risk of severe flood events along the West Coast will likely increase,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The findings may also have implications for projecting tempestuous conditions in other regions as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This paper provides a nice framework for exploring storm variability in other regions of the world,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/sarah-kapnicks-homepage\">Sarah Kapnick\u003c/a>, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate change scientist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But it’s harder to say what such findings might mean for the frequency or severity of droughts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Recent research has suggested that higher temperatures linked to global warming exacerbated the intensity of California’s ongoing drought, by drying out the state. It’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hints-of-climate-change-in-californias-drought-18109\">far less clear\u003c/a> what effect climate change had on the likelihood that such a drought would occur.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The role of anthropogenic influences on the lack of precipitation is still an open question,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.u.arizona.edu/~kanchukaitis/people.html\">Kevin Anchukaitis\u003c/a>, a paleoclimatologist and earth systems geographer at the University of Arizona. “Different research groups have come to different conclusions.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rising temperatures are expected to accelerate evaporation and lead to drier conditions across the West — producing what scientists call hot droughts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anchukaitis said atmospheric rivers don’t necessarily affect the conditions that produce hot droughts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the “severity and duration” of droughts, Anchukaitis said, “will depend on a complex interplay between temperature increases, uncertain long-term precipitation trends and the punctuated role of drought-busting atmospheric rivers.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Extreme rain and snow will hit the West Coast more often as the climate changes, scientists found.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704930655,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":24,"wordCount":762},"headData":{"title":"Climate Change Could Bring Bigger, Wetter Storms to California, Study Says | KQED","description":"Extreme rain and snow will hit the West Coast more often as the climate changes, scientists found.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"nprByline":"\u003cb>John Upton, \u003c/br> Climate Central\u003cb>","path":"/science/520469/california-is-likely-to-be-stormier-with-climate-change","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The types of storms that have been bringing heavy snow and rain to the West this winter, triggering landslides and floods while easing stubborn droughts, are likely to become stronger and more frequent, according to the results of a new study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The drenching storms have been falling from atmospheric rivers — high-altitude streams of moisture that carry much of the West’s water from the Pacific Ocean in sometimes-violent spurts that can lead to floods.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>The latest study to project an increase in the frequency and ferocity with which atmospheric rivers will reach the West Coast was \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL067392/full\">published over the weekend\u003c/a> in Geophysical Research Letters. Scientists described the analysis as more robust than earlier ones.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Days on which atmospheric rivers reach the West Coast each year could increase by a third this century, if greenhouse gas pollution continues to rise sharply, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory researchers concluded after running model simulations.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Currently, the West Coast is likely to receive rain or snow from atmospheric rivers between 25 and 40 days each year, the analysis concluded. By century’s end, that’s expected to rise to between 35 and 55 days annually.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meanwhile, the number of days each year on which the atmospheric rivers bring “extreme” amounts of rain and snow to the region could increase by more than a quarter.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The results of the study were “consistent” with findings from earlier modeling-based studies, said Scripps Institution of Oceanography researcher \u003ca href=\"http://scrippsscholars.ucsd.edu/mralph\">Marty Ralph\u003c/a>, who wasn’t involved with it. He said the study went further than others in demonstrating that the projections were likely to play out in the real world, rather than being the result of any modeling errors.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“In California, the majority of the variation from one year to the next in total precipitation is the result of just the few wettest days each year,” said Ralph, who is based in California. “The \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/el-nino-is-here-so-why-is-california-still-in-drought-19975\">drought we’re in\u003c/a> is a result of the absence of the atmospheric rivers.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Although storms caused by atmospheric rivers are needed to quench landscapes and fill reservoirs, they can also deliver deadly hazards.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Momentous floods of the early 1860s, which affected several Western states, evacuating Californian lawmakers from Sacramento after the Central Valley filled like a tub, were linked to a series of atmospheric rivers. Scientists warn such floods could again beset the region under a winter storm scenario \u003ca href=\"http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/\">they call ARkStorm\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“What we noticed is that the entire West Coast of North America will experience increased atmospheric river frequency,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.pnl.gov/science/staff/staff_info.asp?staff_num=7433\">Samson Hagos\u003c/a>, a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory earth system scientist who led the new study.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That’s largely because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Which would mean worse floods, more often.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The strongest atmospheric river events along the West Coast during the 20th century are strongly linked to flood events of historical significance,” said \u003ca href=\"https://earth.stanford.edu/daniel-swain\">Daniel Swain\u003c/a>, a PhD candidate at Stanford who researches extreme weather.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“A reasonable inference to draw from these studies is that the risk of severe flood events along the West Coast will likely increase,” Swain said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The findings may also have implications for projecting tempestuous conditions in other regions as well.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This paper provides a nice framework for exploring storm variability in other regions of the world,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/sarah-kapnicks-homepage\">Sarah Kapnick\u003c/a>, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate change scientist.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But it’s harder to say what such findings might mean for the frequency or severity of droughts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Recent research has suggested that higher temperatures linked to global warming exacerbated the intensity of California’s ongoing drought, by drying out the state. It’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hints-of-climate-change-in-californias-drought-18109\">far less clear\u003c/a> what effect climate change had on the likelihood that such a drought would occur.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The role of anthropogenic influences on the lack of precipitation is still an open question,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.u.arizona.edu/~kanchukaitis/people.html\">Kevin Anchukaitis\u003c/a>, a paleoclimatologist and earth systems geographer at the University of Arizona. “Different research groups have come to different conclusions.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Rising temperatures are expected to accelerate evaporation and lead to drier conditions across the West — producing what scientists call hot droughts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Anchukaitis said atmospheric rivers don’t necessarily affect the conditions that produce hot droughts.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But the “severity and duration” of droughts, Anchukaitis said, “will depend on a complex interplay between temperature increases, uncertain long-term precipitation trends and the punctuated role of drought-busting atmospheric rivers.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/520469/california-is-likely-to-be-stormier-with-climate-change","authors":["byline_science_520469"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40"],"tags":["science_1678","science_194","science_2878"],"featImg":"science_521723","label":"science"},"science_517792":{"type":"posts","id":"science_517792","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"517792","score":null,"sort":[1454958024000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"climate-change-is-leaving-native-plants-behind","title":"Climate Change Is Leaving Native Plants Behind","publishDate":1454958024,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Climate Change Is Leaving Native Plants Behind | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>Willis Linn Jepson encountered a squat shrub while he was collecting botanical specimens on California’s Mount Tamalpais in the fall of 1936. He trimmed off a few branches and jotted down the location along the ridge trail where the manzanita grew, 2,255 feet above sea level.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The desiccated specimen is now part of an \u003ca href=\"http://ucjeps.berkeley.edu/\">herbarium here\u003c/a> that’s named for the famed botanist. It was among hundreds of thousands of specimens of thousands of different species that were used recently to track the movement of plant species up the state’s many hills.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[contextly_sidebar id=”7swK7Qp0JuUh8gyefXT0ZWzUlphgkOLV”]The results of the analysis warn that native plants are struggling to keep up with changes around them as pollution from fuel burning and deforestation continues to warm the planet. Earlier research into the movement of Californian animals shows they’re shifting more quickly than the native plants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The big takeaway is that species are on the move, and they’re moving at different rates,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.environment.ucla.edu/people/jon-christensen\">Jon Christensen\u003c/a>, a scientist and historian at the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ucla.edu/\">University of California, Los Angeles\u003c/a>. “Which raises the concern that the ecosystems of California could be unraveling.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Christensen and four other scientists analyzed a database of 2 million specimens from a network of \u003ca href=\"http://ucjeps.berkeley.edu/consortium/participants.html\">35 Californian herbariums\u003c/a>. Herbariums are like little-known natural history museums that store vast collections of ferns, mosses, algae and other plants. They found 681,609 specimen records to include in their analysis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They discovered that the range of the Eastwood’s manzanita, which was the type of plant Jepson trimmed on the mountain trail in 1936, hasn’t budged — even as temperatures have risen around it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Temperatures have been rising around the world because of the heat-trapping effects of carbon dioxide, methane and other types of atmospheric pollution. The combined effects of global warming and phases in ocean cycles contributed to \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2015-hottest-year-2016-could-surpass-19929\">record-breaking warmth\u003c/a> globally in 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More warming is anticipated in the years and decades ahead, yet ecologists remain unsure how wildlife will be affected. The discovery that the Eastwood’s manzanita range has been locked in its original range “raises questions” about whether it will be able to adapt as the climate changes around it, Christensen said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Overall, just one in eight native Californian species shifted their ranges significantly upward during more than a century of specimen collecting in California, during which time temperatures rose by about 1°C (nearly 2°F), the researchers \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12423/abstract\">concluded in a paper\u003c/a> published in Global Ecology and Biogeography.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Plants and animals aren’t moving together in sync,” University of Connecticut ornithologist \u003ca href=\"http://www.morgantingley.com/\">Morgan Tingley\u003c/a>, who has studied the \u003ca href=\"http://www.pnas.org/content/106/Supplement_2/19637.full.pdf\">shifting ranges of native birds\u003c/a> in parts of California, said after reading the new paper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This leads us to suspect that ecological communities are breaking down and disassembling,” Tingley said. “It’s a worrying possibility, and one that we don’t yet know the consequences of.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The native plants were also found to be moving more slowly into higher altitudes than their invasive counterparts, one in four of which were found to be spreading uphill.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the planet warms, ideal climatic conditions for different species of wildlife tend to shift to higher latitudes and greater altitudes. Not all species are expected to be able to keep pace with the changes underway. Of those that do, some will encounter mountaintops, shorelines and freeways that prevent them from going any further.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the climate changes too quickly, and species can’t keep up with it, they might be left behind in a climate that’s completely unsuitable for them,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.werc.usgs.gov/person.aspx?personid=138\">Nate Stephenson\u003c/a>, a federal forest ecologist who researches climate change. “Then their population numbers may go down. In extreme cases, they might even blink out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While animals can fly or clamber to new grounds, most plants expand their ranges only when they cast their seeds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s a legitimate concern that many plant species are simply not evolved to be able to shift their population distributions as fast as the current climate-change event will require,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/user/williams\">Park Williams\u003c/a>, a bioclimatologist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Williams described the new paper, with which he was not involved, as the “culmination of an incredible amount of work.” He said its conclusions are also “broadly relevant” outside California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“California is a great place to study species’ range responses to climate,” Williams said. “They have a great dataset, and also a lot of diversity in terms of elevation and climate type.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new study relied on the results of the ongoing digitization of the specimens at the Californian herbariums. Digitization involves shooting digital photographs of samples and noting the coordinates and other details of the sites where they were collected.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About a quarter of more than 2 million specimens stored in manilla folders in long rows of tall cabinets in a large herbarium at the University of California, Berkeley have been digitized so far. “Big data is a big thing on our campus,” said \u003ca href=\"http://ucjeps.berkeley.edu/people/mishler.html\">Brent Mishler\u003c/a>, a biology professor who oversees the collection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The potential power of each piece of data is limited by the amount of information recorded when the specimen was collected.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The older ones — they may not have as much data,” Mishler said. “But it still tells you where it was collected and when.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The analysis of the big herbarium data showed small-seeded native plant species, such as grasses, are moving more quickly and more often up California’s hills than those with larger seeds — such as manzanita. Small seeds travel further than large ones, making it easier for those types of plants to spread.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s huge variation in the species distribution shifts, depending on whether a plant is endemic, native or invasive,” said \u003ca href=\"https://adamwolf.princeton.edu/about/\">Adam Wolf\u003c/a>, a former Princeton University scientist who led the study. “On top of that, there’s huge variation, depending on whether they have little seeds, medium seeds or big seeds.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Invasive species were more likely to be stretching their ranges upward than native species, and the ranges are moving or expanding more quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Unwanted weeds aren’t necessarily growing their Californian footprints because of climate change, although it may be helping some of them. Many would still be conquering new territory as they continued to invade after finding footholds in the state in decades past, regardless of climatic changes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The expanding ranges of unwanted weeds is putting extra pressures on native plants, which are already struggling to withstand the effects climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad floatright]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The fact that non-native plant species have been shifting upslope faster than native plant species is worrisome,” Lamont-Doherty’s Williams said. “In the time required for some slow-migrating native plant species to shift their distributions to locations where the climate is more suitable, those locations may already be colonized by invasive plants.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Animals and weeds are bounding up California's warming hills, while native plants are stuck in place.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704930667,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":30,"wordCount":1196},"headData":{"title":"Climate Change Is Leaving Native Plants Behind | KQED","description":"Animals and weeds are bounding up California's warming hills, while native plants are stuck in place.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"nprByline":"John Upton, Climate Central","path":"/science/517792/climate-change-is-leaving-native-plants-behind","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>Willis Linn Jepson encountered a squat shrub while he was collecting botanical specimens on California’s Mount Tamalpais in the fall of 1936. He trimmed off a few branches and jotted down the location along the ridge trail where the manzanita grew, 2,255 feet above sea level.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The desiccated specimen is now part of an \u003ca href=\"http://ucjeps.berkeley.edu/\">herbarium here\u003c/a> that’s named for the famed botanist. It was among hundreds of thousands of specimens of thousands of different species that were used recently to track the movement of plant species up the state’s many hills.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003cp>The results of the analysis warn that native plants are struggling to keep up with changes around them as pollution from fuel burning and deforestation continues to warm the planet. Earlier research into the movement of Californian animals shows they’re shifting more quickly than the native plants.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The big takeaway is that species are on the move, and they’re moving at different rates,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.environment.ucla.edu/people/jon-christensen\">Jon Christensen\u003c/a>, a scientist and historian at the \u003ca href=\"http://www.ucla.edu/\">University of California, Los Angeles\u003c/a>. “Which raises the concern that the ecosystems of California could be unraveling.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Christensen and four other scientists analyzed a database of 2 million specimens from a network of \u003ca href=\"http://ucjeps.berkeley.edu/consortium/participants.html\">35 Californian herbariums\u003c/a>. Herbariums are like little-known natural history museums that store vast collections of ferns, mosses, algae and other plants. They found 681,609 specimen records to include in their analysis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>They discovered that the range of the Eastwood’s manzanita, which was the type of plant Jepson trimmed on the mountain trail in 1936, hasn’t budged — even as temperatures have risen around it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Temperatures have been rising around the world because of the heat-trapping effects of carbon dioxide, methane and other types of atmospheric pollution. The combined effects of global warming and phases in ocean cycles contributed to \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2015-hottest-year-2016-could-surpass-19929\">record-breaking warmth\u003c/a> globally in 2015.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More warming is anticipated in the years and decades ahead, yet ecologists remain unsure how wildlife will be affected. The discovery that the Eastwood’s manzanita range has been locked in its original range “raises questions” about whether it will be able to adapt as the climate changes around it, Christensen said.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Overall, just one in eight native Californian species shifted their ranges significantly upward during more than a century of specimen collecting in California, during which time temperatures rose by about 1°C (nearly 2°F), the researchers \u003ca href=\"http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.12423/abstract\">concluded in a paper\u003c/a> published in Global Ecology and Biogeography.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“Plants and animals aren’t moving together in sync,” University of Connecticut ornithologist \u003ca href=\"http://www.morgantingley.com/\">Morgan Tingley\u003c/a>, who has studied the \u003ca href=\"http://www.pnas.org/content/106/Supplement_2/19637.full.pdf\">shifting ranges of native birds\u003c/a> in parts of California, said after reading the new paper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“This leads us to suspect that ecological communities are breaking down and disassembling,” Tingley said. “It’s a worrying possibility, and one that we don’t yet know the consequences of.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The native plants were also found to be moving more slowly into higher altitudes than their invasive counterparts, one in four of which were found to be spreading uphill.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As the planet warms, ideal climatic conditions for different species of wildlife tend to shift to higher latitudes and greater altitudes. Not all species are expected to be able to keep pace with the changes underway. Of those that do, some will encounter mountaintops, shorelines and freeways that prevent them from going any further.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“If the climate changes too quickly, and species can’t keep up with it, they might be left behind in a climate that’s completely unsuitable for them,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.werc.usgs.gov/person.aspx?personid=138\">Nate Stephenson\u003c/a>, a federal forest ecologist who researches climate change. “Then their population numbers may go down. In extreme cases, they might even blink out.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While animals can fly or clamber to new grounds, most plants expand their ranges only when they cast their seeds.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s a legitimate concern that many plant species are simply not evolved to be able to shift their population distributions as fast as the current climate-change event will require,” said \u003ca href=\"http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/user/williams\">Park Williams\u003c/a>, a bioclimatologist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Williams described the new paper, with which he was not involved, as the “culmination of an incredible amount of work.” He said its conclusions are also “broadly relevant” outside California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“California is a great place to study species’ range responses to climate,” Williams said. “They have a great dataset, and also a lot of diversity in terms of elevation and climate type.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The new study relied on the results of the ongoing digitization of the specimens at the Californian herbariums. Digitization involves shooting digital photographs of samples and noting the coordinates and other details of the sites where they were collected.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>About a quarter of more than 2 million specimens stored in manilla folders in long rows of tall cabinets in a large herbarium at the University of California, Berkeley have been digitized so far. “Big data is a big thing on our campus,” said \u003ca href=\"http://ucjeps.berkeley.edu/people/mishler.html\">Brent Mishler\u003c/a>, a biology professor who oversees the collection.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The potential power of each piece of data is limited by the amount of information recorded when the specimen was collected.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The older ones — they may not have as much data,” Mishler said. “But it still tells you where it was collected and when.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The analysis of the big herbarium data showed small-seeded native plant species, such as grasses, are moving more quickly and more often up California’s hills than those with larger seeds — such as manzanita. Small seeds travel further than large ones, making it easier for those types of plants to spread.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There’s huge variation in the species distribution shifts, depending on whether a plant is endemic, native or invasive,” said \u003ca href=\"https://adamwolf.princeton.edu/about/\">Adam Wolf\u003c/a>, a former Princeton University scientist who led the study. “On top of that, there’s huge variation, depending on whether they have little seeds, medium seeds or big seeds.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Invasive species were more likely to be stretching their ranges upward than native species, and the ranges are moving or expanding more quickly.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Unwanted weeds aren’t necessarily growing their Californian footprints because of climate change, although it may be helping some of them. Many would still be conquering new territory as they continued to invade after finding footholds in the state in decades past, regardless of climatic changes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The expanding ranges of unwanted weeds is putting extra pressures on native plants, which are already struggling to withstand the effects climate change.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"floatright"},"numeric":["floatright"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“The fact that non-native plant species have been shifting upslope faster than native plant species is worrisome,” Lamont-Doherty’s Williams said. “In the time required for some slow-migrating native plant species to shift their distributions to locations where the climate is more suitable, those locations may already be colonized by invasive plants.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/517792/climate-change-is-leaving-native-plants-behind","authors":["byline_science_517792"],"categories":["science_31","science_35","science_40"],"tags":["science_1665","science_5178","science_1678","science_194","science_311"],"featImg":"science_517881","label":"science"},"science_229506":{"type":"posts","id":"science_229506","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"229506","score":null,"sort":[1441135856000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"trend-large-wildfires-more-common-and-destructive-in-the-west","title":"Trend: Large Wildfires More Common and Destructive in the West","publishDate":1441135856,"format":"standard","headTitle":"Trend: Large Wildfires More Common and Destructive in the West | KQED","labelTerm":{"term":1151,"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cp>The West continues to be an inferno at the start of September. Wildfires have exploded across the region in recent weeks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There have been at least 117 large wildfires to date including 70 that are still burning. Those fires along with thousands of smaller blazes have contributed to 7.8 million acres burned in the U.S., a record for this time of year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Washington has officially had its most destructive \u003ca href=\"http://www.columbian.com/news/2015/aug/26/washington-worst-wildfire-season/\">wildfire season on record\u003c/a>, including its \u003ca href=\"http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/okanogan-complex-washington-wildfire-now-largest-state-history-n414916\">largest wildfire\u003c/a> in state history. \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/alaska-entering-new-era-for-wildfires-19146\">In Alaska\u003c/a>, 5.1 million acres have burned. Even if all the fires went out across the West tomorrow, this year would still rank as the seventh-most destructive wildfire season in terms of acres burned. But with the season set to continue for at least another month, 2015 will continue to climb the charts, though whether it displaces 2006 for the record remains to be seen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-229508\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That puts it right in line with trends since the 1970s of more large fires and more acres burned by these large wildfires as the West dries out and heats up according to an \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/western-wildfire-trends\">updated Climate Central analysis\u003c/a>. Climate change is one of the key drivers helping set up these \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-bully-california-drought-19354\">dry and hot conditions\u003c/a> favorable for wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Spring and summer — two key seasons for wildfires — have warmed 2.1°F across the West, on average. Some states, particularly those in the Southwest, have warmed even faster. Add in \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/rising-temperatures-expected-to-accelerate-western-snowpack-decline\">shrinking snowpack\u003c/a> that’s disappearing earlier, and you have a recipe for a wildfire season that’s now 75 days longer and more devastating than it was in the 1970s.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s been a notable increase in the large wildfires — defined as those 1,000 acres or bigger. A Climate Central analysis of U.S. Forest Service data through 2014 shows that large fires are three-and-a-half times more common now than they were in the ‘70s. They also burn seven times more acreage in an average year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The biggest changes are in the Northern Rockies. Large wildfires are now 10 times more common than they used to be and the area burned is up to 45 times greater in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-229507\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fire is a natural part of most ecosystems but a century of fire suppression, the expansion of homes, roads and infrastructure, and climate change have altered the order of things. Now there’s more fuel in the woods and hotter and drier conditions that can help fires explode with dire consequences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Air quality in downwind communities (some a thousand miles away) also \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-wildfires-and-air-pollution-a-hidden-hazard-16651\">suffer from the smoke\u003c/a>. At least twice in the past 12 years, cities like Los Angeles and San Diego were forced to deal with Beijing-level air pollution caused by southern California wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Intense burns can leave soil barren and inhibit the regrowth of forest. They can also erode forests’ ability to store carbon and actually turn them into a source of carbon emissions. That’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/california-forests-climate-polluters-18941\">already occurring in California\u003c/a>, there are concerns that could \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-alaska-wildfires-19181\">happen in Alaska\u003c/a> this year and it could be coming soon to a forest near you.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>This story first appeared at \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a>, a content partner of KQED. Todd Sanford provided data analysis for this story.\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"There’s been a notable increase in the large wildfires — defined as those 1,000 acres or bigger. That puts it right in line with trends since the 1970s of more large fires and more acres burned by these large wildfires as the West dries out and heats up.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704931353,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":15,"wordCount":551},"headData":{"title":"Trend: Large Wildfires More Common and Destructive in the West | KQED","description":"There’s been a notable increase in the large wildfires — defined as those 1,000 acres or bigger. That puts it right in line with trends since the 1970s of more large fires and more acres burned by these large wildfires as the West dries out and heats up.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"nprByline":"\u003cstrong>\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/what-we-do/people/brian-kahn\">Brian Kahn\u003c/a>, Climate Central\u003c/strong>","path":"/science/229506/trend-large-wildfires-more-common-and-destructive-in-the-west","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>The West continues to be an inferno at the start of September. Wildfires have exploded across the region in recent weeks.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There have been at least 117 large wildfires to date including 70 that are still burning. Those fires along with thousands of smaller blazes have contributed to 7.8 million acres burned in the U.S., a record for this time of year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Washington has officially had its most destructive \u003ca href=\"http://www.columbian.com/news/2015/aug/26/washington-worst-wildfire-season/\">wildfire season on record\u003c/a>, including its \u003ca href=\"http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/okanogan-complex-washington-wildfire-now-largest-state-history-n414916\">largest wildfire\u003c/a> in state history. \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/alaska-entering-new-era-for-wildfires-19146\">In Alaska\u003c/a>, 5.1 million acres have burned. Even if all the fires went out across the West tomorrow, this year would still rank as the seventh-most destructive wildfire season in terms of acres burned. But with the season set to continue for at least another month, 2015 will continue to climb the charts, though whether it displaces 2006 for the record remains to be seen.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-229508\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_Acres_West-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>That puts it right in line with trends since the 1970s of more large fires and more acres burned by these large wildfires as the West dries out and heats up according to an \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/western-wildfire-trends\">updated Climate Central analysis\u003c/a>. Climate change is one of the key drivers helping set up these \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-bully-california-drought-19354\">dry and hot conditions\u003c/a> favorable for wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Spring and summer — two key seasons for wildfires — have warmed 2.1°F across the West, on average. Some states, particularly those in the Southwest, have warmed even faster. Add in \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/rising-temperatures-expected-to-accelerate-western-snowpack-decline\">shrinking snowpack\u003c/a> that’s disappearing earlier, and you have a recipe for a wildfire season that’s now 75 days longer and more devastating than it was in the 1970s.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>There’s been a notable increase in the large wildfires — defined as those 1,000 acres or bigger. A Climate Central analysis of U.S. Forest Service data through 2014 shows that large fires are three-and-a-half times more common now than they were in the ‘70s. They also burn seven times more acreage in an average year.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The biggest changes are in the Northern Rockies. Large wildfires are now 10 times more common than they used to be and the area burned is up to 45 times greater in Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-229507\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-800x450.jpg\" alt=\"2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-800x450.jpg 800w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-400x225.jpg 400w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-1440x810.jpg 1440w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West.jpg 1920w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-1180x664.jpg 1180w, https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/09/2015WildfiresWeb_NumberOfFires_TempTrend_West-960x540.jpg 960w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fire is a natural part of most ecosystems but a century of fire suppression, the expansion of homes, roads and infrastructure, and climate change have altered the order of things. Now there’s more fuel in the woods and hotter and drier conditions that can help fires explode with dire consequences.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Air quality in downwind communities (some a thousand miles away) also \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-wildfires-and-air-pollution-a-hidden-hazard-16651\">suffer from the smoke\u003c/a>. At least twice in the past 12 years, cities like Los Angeles and San Diego were forced to deal with Beijing-level air pollution caused by southern California wildfires.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Intense burns can leave soil barren and inhibit the regrowth of forest. They can also erode forests’ ability to store carbon and actually turn them into a source of carbon emissions. That’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/california-forests-climate-polluters-18941\">already occurring in California\u003c/a>, there are concerns that could \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-alaska-wildfires-19181\">happen in Alaska\u003c/a> this year and it could be coming soon to a forest near you.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ci>This story first appeared at \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a>, a content partner of KQED. Todd Sanford provided data analysis for this story.\u003c/i>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/229506/trend-large-wildfires-more-common-and-destructive-in-the-west","authors":["byline_science_229506"],"series":["science_1151"],"categories":["science_31","science_40"],"tags":["science_1678","science_112","science_113"],"featImg":"science_229588","label":"science_1151"},"science_26251":{"type":"posts","id":"science_26251","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"science","id":"26251","score":null,"sort":[1421254236000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"epa-plans-oil-and-gas-gas-methane-emission-cuts","title":"EPA Plans Oil and Gas Methane Emission Cuts","publishDate":1421254236,"format":"aside","headTitle":"EPA Plans Oil and Gas Methane Emission Cuts | KQED","labelTerm":{"site":"science"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_26256\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 720px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/01/Bobby_Magill_Methane.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-26256 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/01/Bobby_Magill_Methane.jpg\" alt=\"Flaring at oil and gas well sites releases methane into the atmosphere. (Faces of Fracking/flickr)\" width=\"720\" height=\"481\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Flaring at oil and gas well sites releases methane into the atmosphere. (\u003ca href=\"https://www.flickr.com/photos/128012869@N08/15389783456/in/photolist-prWEs5-pyGcRM-ownkYj-oLQp19-7JxAwo-pQTwmP-oNS7dV-2AcN4t-oLQmgw-eLAmAc-pyJwvu-pR8Cte-pyD1MF-oUkc6V-8H7RPV-pF1Gu9-qmDJdT-pXm674-p1yC6o-e5tWge-pXtZs9-e5tWNH-e5tWzP-e5tWuR-e5zz7L-e5zzTd-e5tWka-q5h6jQ-t3i9a-qmDJaX-6Y7JxV-qnJNVB-q6c4hh-q6br55-e5tWSa-e5zzF3-e5tWnH-e5tWbn-e5tWE4-e5zyYQ-e5zyWN-e5zA31-e5tWHn-e5zz1L-e5zzJw-e5zziw-pRcPGL-oUh6tQ-eLAmqV-abvpUX\">Faces of Fracking\u003c/a>/flickr)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>By Bobby Magill\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\n \u003cbr>\nThe White House said Wednesday it wants to slash methane emissions from the crude oil and natural gas industry in the U.S. by up to 45 percent below 2012 levels as part of the Obama administration’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/obama-administration-plans-sweeping-climate-measures-16152\">Climate Action Plan\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The announcement follows \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/fracking-methane-emissions-catastrophe-17439\">years of scientific studies\u003c/a> showing that oil and gas operations in the U.S. are leaking a large \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/scientists-call-for-more-fracking-data-transparency-16816\">but unquantified\u003c/a> amount of methane, helping to fuel global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has enabled the U.S. to be the world’s leading crude oil and natural gas producer, and the EPA expects that methane emissions from the oil and gas industry could rise more than 25 percent by 2025.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To prevent that from happening, the EPA will be proposing rules later this year that aim to slash oil and gas methane emissions 40 to 45 percent compared to 2012 emissions by 2025. The proposed rule, which is expected to be unveiled this summer and finalized in 2016, will regulate emissions exclusively from new crude oil and natural gas wells.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Methane is up to \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/huge-methane-leaks-add-doubt-on-natural-gas-as-a-bridge-fuel-17309\">35 times as potent\u003c/a> at trapping heat as carbon dioxide over a period of about a century, and the oil and gas sector is a major source of those emissions in the U.S. (Carbon dioxide is much more prevalent in the atmosphere and is still the major greenhouse gas.) About 10 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2012 was methane, about 30 percent of which came from the oil and gas industry, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates. (Much of the rest comes from livestock, particularly cattle.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The methane rule comes after the EPA announced in December that it is planning to require energy companies to report more \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/epa-methane-emissions-fracking-18511\">greenhouse gas emissions\u003c/a>, including methane, from fracking operations, natural gas compressor stations and pipelines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA is also considering requiring the use of remote sensing technology to measure methane emissions from oil and gas operations as a way to get a better count of the methane leaking from fracking, pipelines and other oil and gas-related machinery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There are significant, highly cost-effective opportunities for reducing methane emissions from this sector,” Dan Utech, Obama’s climate and energy advisor, told the Associated Press. “We’re confident we can do this in a cost-effective way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a> \u003cem>is an independent organization that researches and reports on climate change.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"To combat global warming, the EPA seeks to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas industry and will propose regulations later this year.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1704932402,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":431},"headData":{"title":"EPA Plans Oil and Gas Methane Emission Cuts | KQED","description":"To combat global warming, the EPA seeks to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas industry and will propose regulations later this year.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"sticky":false,"path":"/science/26251/epa-plans-oil-and-gas-gas-methane-emission-cuts","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_26256\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 720px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/01/Bobby_Magill_Methane.jpg\">\u003cimg loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-26256 size-full\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/science/wp-content/uploads/sites/35/2015/01/Bobby_Magill_Methane.jpg\" alt=\"Flaring at oil and gas well sites releases methane into the atmosphere. (Faces of Fracking/flickr)\" width=\"720\" height=\"481\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Flaring at oil and gas well sites releases methane into the atmosphere. (\u003ca href=\"https://www.flickr.com/photos/128012869@N08/15389783456/in/photolist-prWEs5-pyGcRM-ownkYj-oLQp19-7JxAwo-pQTwmP-oNS7dV-2AcN4t-oLQmgw-eLAmAc-pyJwvu-pR8Cte-pyD1MF-oUkc6V-8H7RPV-pF1Gu9-qmDJdT-pXm674-p1yC6o-e5tWge-pXtZs9-e5tWNH-e5tWzP-e5tWuR-e5zz7L-e5zzTd-e5tWka-q5h6jQ-t3i9a-qmDJaX-6Y7JxV-qnJNVB-q6c4hh-q6br55-e5tWSa-e5zzF3-e5tWnH-e5tWbn-e5tWE4-e5zyYQ-e5zyWN-e5zA31-e5tWHn-e5zz1L-e5zzJw-e5zziw-pRcPGL-oUh6tQ-eLAmqV-abvpUX\">Faces of Fracking\u003c/a>/flickr)\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cstrong>By Bobby Magill\u003cbr>\n\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a>\u003c/strong>\u003cbr>\n \u003cbr>\nThe White House said Wednesday it wants to slash methane emissions from the crude oil and natural gas industry in the U.S. by up to 45 percent below 2012 levels as part of the Obama administration’s \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/obama-administration-plans-sweeping-climate-measures-16152\">Climate Action Plan\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The announcement follows \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/fracking-methane-emissions-catastrophe-17439\">years of scientific studies\u003c/a> showing that oil and gas operations in the U.S. are leaking a large \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/scientists-call-for-more-fracking-data-transparency-16816\">but unquantified\u003c/a> amount of methane, helping to fuel global warming.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has enabled the U.S. to be the world’s leading crude oil and natural gas producer, and the EPA expects that methane emissions from the oil and gas industry could rise more than 25 percent by 2025.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>To prevent that from happening, the EPA will be proposing rules later this year that aim to slash oil and gas methane emissions 40 to 45 percent compared to 2012 emissions by 2025. The proposed rule, which is expected to be unveiled this summer and finalized in 2016, will regulate emissions exclusively from new crude oil and natural gas wells.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Methane is up to \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/huge-methane-leaks-add-doubt-on-natural-gas-as-a-bridge-fuel-17309\">35 times as potent\u003c/a> at trapping heat as carbon dioxide over a period of about a century, and the oil and gas sector is a major source of those emissions in the U.S. (Carbon dioxide is much more prevalent in the atmosphere and is still the major greenhouse gas.) About 10 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2012 was methane, about 30 percent of which came from the oil and gas industry, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates. (Much of the rest comes from livestock, particularly cattle.)\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The methane rule comes after the EPA announced in December that it is planning to require energy companies to report more \u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/news/epa-methane-emissions-fracking-18511\">greenhouse gas emissions\u003c/a>, including methane, from fracking operations, natural gas compressor stations and pipelines.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The EPA is also considering requiring the use of remote sensing technology to measure methane emissions from oil and gas operations as a way to get a better count of the methane leaking from fracking, pipelines and other oil and gas-related machinery.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>“There are significant, highly cost-effective opportunities for reducing methane emissions from this sector,” Dan Utech, Obama’s climate and energy advisor, told the Associated Press. “We’re confident we can do this in a cost-effective way.”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.climatecentral.org/\">Climate Central\u003c/a> \u003cem>is an independent organization that researches and reports on climate change.\u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/science/26251/epa-plans-oil-and-gas-gas-methane-emission-cuts","authors":["6387"],"categories":["science_31","science_33","science_35"],"tags":["science_1678","science_552","science_2080","science_429","science_64","science_556","science_1041"],"featImg":"science_26256","label":"science"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. It asks: What if everything goes right for once? How can we get there? Each episode also includes a short fiction story generated by advanced AI GPT-4, serving as a thought-provoking springboard to speculate how humanity could leverage technology for good.","airtime":"SUN 2pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Possible-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.possible.fm/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"Possible"},"link":"/radio/program/possible","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/possible/id1677184070","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/730YpdUSNlMyPQwNnyjp4k"}},"1a":{"id":"1a","title":"1A","info":"1A is home to the national conversation. 1A brings on great guests and frames the best debate in ways that make you think, share and engage.","airtime":"MON-THU 11pm-12am","imageSrc":"https://ww2.kqed.org/radio/wp-content/uploads/sites/50/2018/04/1a.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://the1a.org/","meta":{"site":"news","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/1a","subscribe":{"npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/RBrW","apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?s=143441&mt=2&id=1188724250&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/1A-p947376/","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510316/podcast.xml"}},"all-things-considered":{"id":"all-things-considered","title":"All Things Considered","info":"Every weekday, \u003cem>All Things Considered\u003c/em> hosts Robert Siegel, Audie Cornish, Ari Shapiro, and Kelly McEvers present the program's trademark mix of news, interviews, commentaries, reviews, and offbeat features. 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You ask the questions. You decide what Bay Curious investigates. And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. As a non-partisan forum, The Club brings to the public airwaves diverse viewpoints on important topics. The Club's weekly radio broadcast - the oldest in the U.S., dating back to 1924 - is carried across the nation on public radio stations and is now podcasting. Our website archive features audio of our recent programs, as well as selected speeches from our long and distinguished history. 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Plus, KQED’s Bianca Taylor brings you the local KQED news you need to know.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Consider-This-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"Consider This from NPR and KQED","officialWebsiteLink":"/podcasts/considerthis","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"7"},"link":"/podcasts/considerthis","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1503226625?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","npr":"https://rpb3r.app.goo.gl/coronavirusdaily","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5ucHIub3JnLzUxMDM1NS9wb2RjYXN0LnhtbA","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3Z6JdCS2d0eFEpXHKI6WqH"}},"forum":{"id":"forum","title":"Forum","tagline":"The conversation starts here","info":"KQED’s live call-in program discussing local, state, national and international issues, as well as in-depth interviews.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9am-11am, 10pm-11pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Forum-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"KQED Forum with Mina Kim and Alexis Madrigal","officialWebsiteLink":"/forum","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"8"},"link":"/forum","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/kqeds-forum/id73329719","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vS1FJTkM5NTU3MzgxNjMz","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/432307980/forum","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqedfm-kqeds-forum-podcast","rss":"https://feeds.megaphone.fm/KQINC9557381633"}},"freakonomics-radio":{"id":"freakonomics-radio","title":"Freakonomics Radio","info":"Freakonomics Radio is a one-hour award-winning podcast and public-radio project hosted by Stephen Dubner, with co-author Steve Levitt as a regular guest. 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By that time, the record-setting winter of 2016-17 had removed all doubt that the drought was over, though concerns over depleted groundwater levels still remain. According to the \u003ca href=\"http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Drought Monitor\u003c/a>, less than 10 percent of California remains in “moderate drought” — compared to nearly 100 percent of the state a year ago.\r\n\r\n[http_redir]","featImg":null,"headData":{"title":"Drought Watch Archives | KQED Science","description":"What California's reservoirs look like right now (From KQED's The Lowdown) [iframe src=\"http://kroodsma.com/KQED/water-supply-master/public/map.html\" width=\"640\" height=\"720\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"] We’re collecting all of our California drought coverage here, starting with the current state of the drought, then providing the background and rounding up all the stories we’ve produced. 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