Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay
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NOAA images","credit":null,"description":null,"imgSizes":{"thumbnail":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-400x225.png","width":400,"height":225,"mimeType":"image/png"},"guest-author-32":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-32x32.png","width":32,"height":32,"mimeType":"image/png"},"guest-author-64":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-64x64.png","width":64,"height":64,"mimeType":"image/png"},"guest-author-96":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-96x96.png","width":96,"height":96,"mimeType":"image/png"},"guest-author-128":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-128x128.png","width":128,"height":128,"mimeType":"image/png"},"detail":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-75x75.png","width":75,"height":75,"mimeType":"image/png"},"kqedFullSize":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png","width":640,"height":360}},"fetchFailed":false,"isLoading":false}},"audioPlayerReducer":{"postId":"stream_live"},"authorsReducer":{"andrew-alden":{"type":"authors","id":"6228","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"6228","found":true},"name":"Andrew Alden","firstName":"Andrew","lastName":"Alden","slug":"andrew-alden","email":"alden@andrew-alden.com","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Andrew Alden earned his geology degree at the University of New Hampshire and moved back to the Bay Area to work at the U.S. Geological Survey for six years. He has \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/\">written on geology for About.com\u003c/a> since its founding in 1997. In 2007, he started the Oakland Geology blog, which won recognition as \"Best of the East Bay\" from the \u003ci>East Bay Express\u003c/i> in 2010. In writing about geology in the Bay Area and surroundings, he hopes to share some of the useful and pleasurable insights that geologists give us—not just facts about the deep past, but an attitude that might be called the \u003ci>deep present\u003c/i>.\r\n\r\nRead his \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/author/andrew-alden/\">previous contributions\u003c/a> to \u003ca href=\"http://http://science.kqed.org/quest/\">QUEST\u003c/a>, a project dedicated to exploring the Science of Sustainability.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"science","roles":["author"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Andrew Alden | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/andrew-alden"},"lindsay-kelliher":{"type":"authors","id":"10206","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"10206","found":true},"name":"Lindsay Kelliher","firstName":"Lindsay","lastName":"Kelliher","slug":"lindsay-kelliher","email":"lkelliher@kqed.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Lindsay has been in media in California for more than a decade, dividing her time between San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay. She has worked on documentary and factual programs for PBS (NOVA and NATURE), National Geographic, Discovery, and Animal Planet. She has also been involved with working and volunteering for local Animal Rescue organizations. She loves her new home with QUEST, letting her combine her love of animals and nature with her science-nerd tendencies. Lindsay graduated with honors from Northwestern’s Radio, TV, and Film department.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/58f84d90c37fac0580527a0cb97d2cc3?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Lindsay Kelliher | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/58f84d90c37fac0580527a0cb97d2cc3?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/58f84d90c37fac0580527a0cb97d2cc3?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/lindsay-kelliher"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"home","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"quest_46687":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_46687","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"46687","score":null,"sort":[1351797209000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow","title":"Watching the Atmospheric Rivers Flow","publishDate":1351797209,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46689\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46689\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46689\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-400x225.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Atmospheric river of October 13, 2009. NOAA images\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers are a 21st-century weather threat that first got their name in 1998, after satellites capable of measuring water vapor in the air began producing images like this one. It shows the chronically humid tropical ocean at the bottom, and long, thin streamers of water vapor threading away from the tropics. It was soon estimated that these streamers—atmospheric rivers or ARs—are responsible for essentially all of the moisture transported out of the tropics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The basic connection between ARs and major precipitation events was obvious. In California, our 20th-century name for these is the Pineapple Express: a huge influx of warm, water-heavy air from the tropical Pacific that overfills the rivers and piles snow on the mountains. Smaller ARs may not cause major floods, but they can bump up river flows by 10 times in a day or two. They deliver to California about one-third of its total water. Clearly ARs are important research topics for both scientific and practical reasons. How do they interact with El Niño/La Niña cycles? How will climate change affect them? How can we better protect ourselves from them?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>America has just finished going through Hurricane Sandy. Hurricanes are important events, but ARs affect both coasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's \u003ca href=\"http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/\">AR site\u003c/a> points to the notorious \"Snowmageddon\" blizzard of February 2010 as an East Coast example, when a river of Pacific moisture crossed Central America and the Caribbean before drenching the Atlantic states. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46688\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.gif\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-46688\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Norway got a large AR in the late summer of 2005, and many others are sure to be found in the global weather records. But California seems to be the current champion, maybe because the data is better here. Between 1997 and 2006 there were 42 AR events touching California, of which seven caused major flooding of the type requiring evacuations and triggering large-scale power outages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even without knowing their cause, California has had epic floods during its history, and recently emergency planners have begun to take the \"\u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/geologyandculture/qt/The-Deep-Present.htm\">deep present\u003c/a>\" approach to them. What if the worst example we know, the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862\">great flood of 1862\u003c/a>, were to recur today? That had the earmarks of an unusually large AR event or a rapid series of them. As the planning agencies contemplated that question, they prepared a scenario in 2010 with the Noachian name \u003ca href=\"http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm-2/\">ARkStorm\u003c/a> (for \"AR thousand-year storm\") clearly demonstrating that ARs are our other \"Big One\" beside earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since ARkStorm was completed, several agencies have carried its findings forward. In particular, a new Atmospheric River Observatory is nearing completion at Bodega Bay that will conduct crucial ground-based observations of ARs that pass over the Bay Area. The satellite water-vapor data is not enough, because everything else matters too: the elevation where the moisture sits, the winds at different levels, the temperature profile of the lower atmosphere and much more that meteorologists need for the best modeling. After that, the flood predicters add the model's results to their own knowledge of river levels and soil moisture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What makes ARs so potent is that they bring in air saturated with tropical moisture, the closer to sea level the wetter. Such air will turn its water to rain almost instantly when lifted up by the Coast Range, and again when it hits the Sierra Nevada. The new AR Observatory at Bodega Bay, like others being built along the west coast, will interrogate the air with radar at various wavelengths, measure rainfall with standard gauges and drop-size distribution with disdrometers, and derive water-vapor content from GPS data (an unforeseen benefit of the universal navigation system). More instruments in the mountains near Cazadero will complement it. The promise is that we will be able to accurately forecast these 21st-century events, and their effects in our neighborhoods, a week or more in advance.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Researchers are gearing up to monitor the flood-causing weather monsters known as atmospheric rivers.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1353013009,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":10,"wordCount":659},"headData":{"title":"Watching the Atmospheric Rivers Flow | KQED","description":"Researchers are gearing up to monitor the flood-causing weather monsters known as atmospheric rivers.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"46687 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=46687","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/","disqusTitle":"Watching the Atmospheric Rivers Flow","path":"/quest/46687/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_46689\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver-2/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46689\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46689\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.png 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver-400x225.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Atmospheric river of October 13, 2009. NOAA images\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Atmospheric rivers are a 21st-century weather threat that first got their name in 1998, after satellites capable of measuring water vapor in the air began producing images like this one. It shows the chronically humid tropical ocean at the bottom, and long, thin streamers of water vapor threading away from the tropics. It was soon estimated that these streamers—atmospheric rivers or ARs—are responsible for essentially all of the moisture transported out of the tropics.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The basic connection between ARs and major precipitation events was obvious. In California, our 20th-century name for these is the Pineapple Express: a huge influx of warm, water-heavy air from the tropical Pacific that overfills the rivers and piles snow on the mountains. Smaller ARs may not cause major floods, but they can bump up river flows by 10 times in a day or two. They deliver to California about one-third of its total water. Clearly ARs are important research topics for both scientific and practical reasons. How do they interact with El Niño/La Niña cycles? How will climate change affect them? How can we better protect ourselves from them?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>America has just finished going through Hurricane Sandy. Hurricanes are important events, but ARs affect both coasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's \u003ca href=\"http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/\">AR site\u003c/a> points to the notorious \"Snowmageddon\" blizzard of February 2010 as an East Coast example, when a river of Pacific moisture crossed Central America and the Caribbean before drenching the Atlantic states. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/11/01/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow/atmoriver/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-46688\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/11/atmoriver.gif\" alt=\"\" title=\"atmoriver\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-46688\">\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Norway got a large AR in the late summer of 2005, and many others are sure to be found in the global weather records. But California seems to be the current champion, maybe because the data is better here. Between 1997 and 2006 there were 42 AR events touching California, of which seven caused major flooding of the type requiring evacuations and triggering large-scale power outages.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Even without knowing their cause, California has had epic floods during its history, and recently emergency planners have begun to take the \"\u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/od/geologyandculture/qt/The-Deep-Present.htm\">deep present\u003c/a>\" approach to them. What if the worst example we know, the \u003ca href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862\">great flood of 1862\u003c/a>, were to recur today? That had the earmarks of an unusually large AR event or a rapid series of them. As the planning agencies contemplated that question, they prepared a scenario in 2010 with the Noachian name \u003ca href=\"http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm-2/\">ARkStorm\u003c/a> (for \"AR thousand-year storm\") clearly demonstrating that ARs are our other \"Big One\" beside earthquakes.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Since ARkStorm was completed, several agencies have carried its findings forward. In particular, a new Atmospheric River Observatory is nearing completion at Bodega Bay that will conduct crucial ground-based observations of ARs that pass over the Bay Area. The satellite water-vapor data is not enough, because everything else matters too: the elevation where the moisture sits, the winds at different levels, the temperature profile of the lower atmosphere and much more that meteorologists need for the best modeling. After that, the flood predicters add the model's results to their own knowledge of river levels and soil moisture.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What makes ARs so potent is that they bring in air saturated with tropical moisture, the closer to sea level the wetter. Such air will turn its water to rain almost instantly when lifted up by the Coast Range, and again when it hits the Sierra Nevada. The new AR Observatory at Bodega Bay, like others being built along the west coast, will interrogate the air with radar at various wavelengths, measure rainfall with standard gauges and drop-size distribution with disdrometers, and derive water-vapor content from GPS data (an unforeseen benefit of the universal navigation system). More instruments in the mountains near Cazadero will complement it. The promise is that we will be able to accurately forecast these 21st-century events, and their effects in our neighborhoods, a week or more in advance.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/46687/watching-the-atmospheric-rivers-flow","authors":["6228"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_11"],"tags":["quest_11580","quest_621","quest_11581","quest_1115","quest_13202"],"featImg":"quest_46689","label":"quest"},"quest_7522":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_7522","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"7522","score":null,"sort":[1282674734000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"producers-notes-sea-level-rise","title":"Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay","publishDate":1282674734,"format":"video","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The sea is rising. This, in itself, is not news. The oceans of Earth have been slowly, steadily rising for hundreds of years. But it’s about to get a lot higher a lot faster, and millions of people - and billions of dollars of infrastructure - are suddenly finding themselves at risk for flooding, storm surge damage, and possible relocation. How could something that has been a known factor surprise us, unprepared?\u003cbr>\n\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meet Sea Level Rise, the new poster child for climate change. There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As we were just starting research for this story, I attended the \u003ca href=\"http://www.bayplanningcoalition.org/2010/dmc-2010-resource-guide/\">SF Bay Decision Maker’s Conference on Sea Level Change\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\nThere was one idea that permeated the entire day’s discussions:\n\u003cli>You can’t engineer for an unknown amount.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Developers are aware of sea level rise, but do not know how to approach the issue. “Tell how much it will rise, and by when, and we can plan for it.”\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Of course, it’s just not that straightforward. The science behind the estimates seems to be uncertain, providing ranges from as little as 12 inches by 2050, to as much as 80 inches by 2100. There is a consensus that the rate of sea level rise has increased in conjunction with the rise of global surface temperatures. The point of uncertainty is what the rate of sea level rise will be in the future. In 2007, German scientist Stefan Rahmstorf developed an empirical method for predicting future sea level rise using the relationship between sea level rise and global mean surface temperature. His estimates of global sea level rise by 2100 range from 10 inches (50 cm) to 55 inches (140 cm) respectively. Research estimates done for the Governor of California state that sea level will increase between 12 and 17 inches (30 and 45 cm) by 2050 and between 20 and 55 inches (50 and 140 cm) by 2099.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most estimates show a wide range, depending on how much glaciers and ice caps melt over the next 90 years. The truth is that scientists don’t know how much other environmental factors will contribute to, or slow down, the rate of sea level rise. In addition, these are global estimates, which are averages and will not represent the exact numbers for specific locations. How much the sea level rises here in San Francisco Bay will not look the same as it will in Bangladesh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The one thing scientists do agree on, however, is that sea level rise up to 2 meters (78 inches) is not out of the question, but certainly a high estimate. \"Although increases of up to two metres this century can't be ruled out, this does not mean that they are inevitable or even likely.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And so we return to the question, “What should we do about it?” The truth is, we just aren’t sure yet. What we \u003cem>do\u003c/em> know are the factors that contribute to the acceleration of sea level rise. Most scientists will tell you that, before we can fix the problem, we first need to stop the cause. Otherwise, we’ll never get ahead our heads (and our buildings!) above the water line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peter Gleick, President of the \u003ca href=\"http://pacinst.org/\">Pacific Institute\u003c/a> in Oakland, tells us “the good news is that there’s a lot that we could if we’re smart enough to do it in advance. There are a lot of things that we could do to reduce the risks of climate change and sea level rise around the Bay. The first thing we need to do is reduce the severity of climate change. And that’s an issue of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that’s got to be done at the national level. We’re doing a little bit of it at the California level. It needs to be done at the global level. But whether or not the politicians get their act together and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re still going to have to deal with some sea level rise. That’s built into the gases we’ve already put into the atmosphere…But where we get to at the end of the century is going to depend on actions that California or the United States or ultimately the whole globe takes to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, to reduce the rate of climate change. If we don’t get our act together, if we don’t do things to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re gonna reach a meter of sea level rise or more by the end of the century. And it’s gonna be growing even faster than it is now. But if for some reason we’re able to get a handle on emissions and the world is able to come together, we could slow that rate enormously, and limit the rate of sea level rise to hopefully only a few tens of centimeters. I don't think we’ll be that lucky, but that’s a possibility.”\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, \"Will it rise?\" but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?\"","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1457640837,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":972},"headData":{"title":"Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay | KQED","description":"There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, "Will it rise?" but, "How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?"","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"7522 http://www.kqed.org/quest/blog/2010/08/24/producers-notes-sea-level-rise/","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2010/08/24/producers-notes-sea-level-rise/","disqusTitle":"Producer's Notes: Going UP: Sea Level Rise in San Francisco Bay","videoEmbed":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDv021_zW-E","path":"/quest/7522/producers-notes-sea-level-rise","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The sea is rising. This, in itself, is not news. The oceans of Earth have been slowly, steadily rising for hundreds of years. But it’s about to get a lot higher a lot faster, and millions of people - and billions of dollars of infrastructure - are suddenly finding themselves at risk for flooding, storm surge damage, and possible relocation. How could something that has been a known factor surprise us, unprepared?\u003cbr>\n\u003c!--more-->\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Meet Sea Level Rise, the new poster child for climate change. There is no question that sea levels have been steadily rising, and will continue to rise at an increased rate in the future. So the real question is not, “Will it rise?” but, \"How MUCH will it rise, and what can we do about it?”\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As we were just starting research for this story, I attended the \u003ca href=\"http://www.bayplanningcoalition.org/2010/dmc-2010-resource-guide/\">SF Bay Decision Maker’s Conference on Sea Level Change\u003c/a>.\u003c/p>\n\u003cul>\nThere was one idea that permeated the entire day’s discussions:\n\u003cli>You can’t engineer for an unknown amount.\u003c/li>\n\u003cli>Developers are aware of sea level rise, but do not know how to approach the issue. “Tell how much it will rise, and by when, and we can plan for it.”\u003c/li>\n\u003c/ul>\n\u003cp>Of course, it’s just not that straightforward. The science behind the estimates seems to be uncertain, providing ranges from as little as 12 inches by 2050, to as much as 80 inches by 2100. There is a consensus that the rate of sea level rise has increased in conjunction with the rise of global surface temperatures. The point of uncertainty is what the rate of sea level rise will be in the future. In 2007, German scientist Stefan Rahmstorf developed an empirical method for predicting future sea level rise using the relationship between sea level rise and global mean surface temperature. His estimates of global sea level rise by 2100 range from 10 inches (50 cm) to 55 inches (140 cm) respectively. Research estimates done for the Governor of California state that sea level will increase between 12 and 17 inches (30 and 45 cm) by 2050 and between 20 and 55 inches (50 and 140 cm) by 2099.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Most estimates show a wide range, depending on how much glaciers and ice caps melt over the next 90 years. The truth is that scientists don’t know how much other environmental factors will contribute to, or slow down, the rate of sea level rise. In addition, these are global estimates, which are averages and will not represent the exact numbers for specific locations. How much the sea level rises here in San Francisco Bay will not look the same as it will in Bangladesh.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The one thing scientists do agree on, however, is that sea level rise up to 2 meters (78 inches) is not out of the question, but certainly a high estimate. \"Although increases of up to two metres this century can't be ruled out, this does not mean that they are inevitable or even likely.\"\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And so we return to the question, “What should we do about it?” The truth is, we just aren’t sure yet. What we \u003cem>do\u003c/em> know are the factors that contribute to the acceleration of sea level rise. Most scientists will tell you that, before we can fix the problem, we first need to stop the cause. Otherwise, we’ll never get ahead our heads (and our buildings!) above the water line.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peter Gleick, President of the \u003ca href=\"http://pacinst.org/\">Pacific Institute\u003c/a> in Oakland, tells us “the good news is that there’s a lot that we could if we’re smart enough to do it in advance. There are a lot of things that we could do to reduce the risks of climate change and sea level rise around the Bay. The first thing we need to do is reduce the severity of climate change. And that’s an issue of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that’s got to be done at the national level. We’re doing a little bit of it at the California level. It needs to be done at the global level. But whether or not the politicians get their act together and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re still going to have to deal with some sea level rise. That’s built into the gases we’ve already put into the atmosphere…But where we get to at the end of the century is going to depend on actions that California or the United States or ultimately the whole globe takes to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, to reduce the rate of climate change. If we don’t get our act together, if we don’t do things to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we’re gonna reach a meter of sea level rise or more by the end of the century. And it’s gonna be growing even faster than it is now. But if for some reason we’re able to get a handle on emissions and the world is able to come together, we could slow that rate enormously, and limit the rate of sea level rise to hopefully only a few tens of centimeters. I don't think we’ll be that lucky, but that’s a possibility.”\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/7522/producers-notes-sea-level-rise","authors":["10206"],"categories":["quest_6","quest_9","quest_3422","quest_3233"],"tags":["quest_131","quest_621","quest_797","quest_924","quest_1115","quest_1319","quest_1891","quest_2041","quest_2043","quest_2491","quest_2559","quest_2603","quest_2805","quest_2893","quest_2925","quest_2940","quest_2989"],"label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. 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