What Makes California's Quake Warning System So Timely?
Reporter's Notes: Predicting the Next Big One
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USGS photo by Howard Wilshire","credit":null,"description":null,"imgSizes":{"thumbnail":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/01/CalEQwarningtop-400x225.jpg","width":400,"height":225,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-32":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/01/CalEQwarningtop-32x32.jpg","width":32,"height":32,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-64":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/01/CalEQwarningtop-64x64.jpg","width":64,"height":64,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-96":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/01/CalEQwarningtop-96x96.jpg","width":96,"height":96,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-128":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/01/CalEQwarningtop-128x128.jpg","width":128,"height":128,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"detail":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/01/CalEQwarningtop-75x75.jpg","width":75,"height":75,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"kqedFullSize":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/01/CalEQwarningtop.jpg","width":640,"height":360}},"fetchFailed":false,"isLoading":false}},"audioPlayerReducer":{"postId":"stream_live"},"authorsReducer":{"amystanden":{"type":"authors","id":"210","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"210","found":true},"name":"Amy Standen","firstName":"Amy","lastName":"Standen","slug":"amystanden","email":"astanden@kqed.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Amy Standen (@amystanden) is co-host of #\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/programs/the-leap\">TheLeapPodcast\u003c/a> (subscribe on iTunes or Stitcher!) and host of KQED and PBSDigital Studios' science video series, \u003ca href=\"https://www.youtube.com/user/KQEDDeepLook\">Deep Look\u003c/a>. Her science radio stories appear on KQED and NPR.\r\n\r\nEmail her at astanden@kqed.org","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"news","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"futureofyou","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"stateofhealth","roles":["subscriber"]},{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Amy Standen | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/3d021b72de685a788b0487b059d0a6a1?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/amystanden"},"andrew-alden":{"type":"authors","id":"6228","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"6228","found":true},"name":"Andrew Alden","firstName":"Andrew","lastName":"Alden","slug":"andrew-alden","email":"alden@andrew-alden.com","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"Andrew Alden earned his geology degree at the University of New Hampshire and moved back to the Bay Area to work at the U.S. Geological Survey for six years. He has \u003ca href=\"http://geology.about.com/\">written on geology for About.com\u003c/a> since its founding in 1997. In 2007, he started the Oakland Geology blog, which won recognition as \"Best of the East Bay\" from the \u003ci>East Bay Express\u003c/i> in 2010. In writing about geology in the Bay Area and surroundings, he hopes to share some of the useful and pleasurable insights that geologists give us—not just facts about the deep past, but an attitude that might be called the \u003ci>deep present\u003c/i>.\r\n\r\nRead his \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/author/andrew-alden/\">previous contributions\u003c/a> to \u003ca href=\"http://http://science.kqed.org/quest/\">QUEST\u003c/a>, a project dedicated to exploring the Science of Sustainability.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"science","roles":["author"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Andrew Alden | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/9eaa0afc32f98c5fc7ce634437334a64?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/andrew-alden"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"home","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"quest_49223":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_49223","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"49223","score":null,"sort":[1359663661000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"what-makes-californias-quake-warning-system-so-timely","title":"What Makes California's Quake Warning System So Timely?","publishDate":1359663661,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_49224\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/01/31/what-makes-californias-quake-warning-system-so-timely/caleqwarningtop/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-49224\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/01/CalEQwarningtop-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"The collapsed Cypress Viaduct was the site of the first earthquake early-warning system, in 1989. USGS photo by Howard Wilshire\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-49224\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The collapsed Cypress Viaduct in Oakland was the site of the first earthquake early-warning system, in 1989. USGS photo by Howard Wilshire\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Earlier this week, State Senator Alex Padilla went before the cameras with a group of earthquake scientists to kick-start California into building the world's best earthquake early-warning system. Does such a thing really work? And why should we start now?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early-warning systems are not a scientific boondoggle; they really work. First things first, though: these do not predict earthquakes. Instead, they're automatic systems that detect quakes right at the epicenter, and measure their size almost instantly. With that information, they signal faraway users that strong shaking is on its way RIGHT NOW. You could call that a prediction if you like, an instant shaking prediction. But quake researchers are extremely allergic to the word \"prediction,\" so please call these warning systems. They're like the tsunami warning systems we're familiar with by now, only a lot faster.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area had the world's first example back in 1989, in the aftermath of the Loma Prieta earthquake. It detected aftershocks. It consisted of a handful of seismographs around the epicenter in the Santa Cruz Mountains, a computer and a microwave radio network. When the computer got enough simultaneous signals from the seismographs, it considered that the detection of a large aftershock and sent out an alarm on the radio network. Crews who were taking down the wreckage of the Cypress Structure, 100 kilometers away, got about 20 seconds of warning to back off and get out. You can imagine how useful that system was to those workers, crude as it was.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today much larger and better systems are at work around the world. Japan's is the most advanced—not so much scientifically, because every system's software uses the latest science, but in terms of being integrated into people's lives. If you saw it in action during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, you can imagine one like it in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Senator Padilla's bill was triggered after one of his regular visits to Caltech. (He's an astronomy geek, it turns out.) While he was there, the earthquake people got hold of him and demonstrated the early-warning tools on the California Integrated Seismic Network (\u003ca href=\"http://www.cisn.org/\">CISN\u003c/a>), like the experimental \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/index.php\">ElarmS\u003c/a> project. The CISN people told him, as they've been telling anyone who will listen for ten years now, that they're ready to roll whenever the money can be found. Right now their research relies on a lean stream of funds from government projects and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Padilla's bill (\u003ca href=\"http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140SB135\">Senate Bill 135\u003c/a>) is mostly preamble with one new sentence for the Government Code that commits the Office of Emergency Services to work with the CISN partners to \"develop a comprehensive statewide earthquake early warning system in California.\" In the preamble is one unusual item: a reference to \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature11703.html\">a dry scientific paper in \u003ci>Nature\u003c/i> last month\u003c/a>. The paper is also prominently featured in Padilla's news release about SB-135, which linked to a Caltech \u003ca href=\"http://www.caltech.edu/content/faulty-behavior\">press-office piece\u003c/a> on the paper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peggy Hellweg, the CISN point person at Cal Berkeley's Seismological Lab, explained where the paper fits in the larger story. Ever since the 1992 Landers quake in Southern California, she told me, a major weak point in our understanding of earthquake faults is how ruptures can expand beyond the limits we thought they had. At Landers, five separately mapped faults gave way at once in a single rupture. On the larger scale, both the giant 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Tohoku quakes ruptured fault segments that no one expected to fail. As for our own San Andreas fault system, we've always taken it as a given that the so-called creeping section, which runs between San Juan Bautista and Parkfield, separates northern and southern California. We don't expect a rupture on either the north or south end of the fault to rip through the creeping section, because its degree of creep—steady motion without earthquakes—would seem to preclude the more wrenching motion of a proper earthquake. It shouldn't have enough strain energy on it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ci>Nature\u003c/i> paper combined simulations of faulting with lab tests of actual material drill-sampled from the fault zone that ruptured in the large 1999 Chi Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Its authors described scenarios in which ruptures advancing into a creeping fault, if they hit it just right, would set it off. In fact, that supposedly low-strain creeping section could release quite a lot of energy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The authors suggested that creeping might be a temporary state between the relaxed state right after a quake (no energy) and the \"stuck\" state that most earthquake faults are in (lots of energy). \"Temporary\" in this case means centuries. If their work holds up and can be generalized, then it's plausible that the San Andreas fault could all go at once. \u003ca href=\"http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/347423/description/Quakes_may_bring_nearby_rocks_closer_to_rupture\">An article in \u003ci>Science News\u003c/i>\u003c/a> quotes some of the cautionary comments, which make the same points I would. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It strikes me as unusual that such a scientific article would be used as a \"news hook\" to promote something as fundamental as a new statewide quake-warning system. Normally, in California, we would cite the latest awful earthquake, because that seems to focus people's attention better. But as Senator Padilla said, better to get a system in place before rather than after the next Big One. I absolutely support SB-135 anyway, regardless of this one paper.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"In the age-old war between Northern and Southern California, a change in the science has changed the politics.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1359666812,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":12,"wordCount":935},"headData":{"title":"What Makes California's Quake Warning System So Timely? | KQED","description":"In the age-old war between Northern and Southern California, a change in the science has changed the politics.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"What Makes California's Quake Warning System So Timely?","datePublished":"2013-01-31T20:21:01.000Z","dateModified":"2013-01-31T21:13:32.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"49223 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=49223","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/01/31/what-makes-californias-quake-warning-system-so-timely/","disqusTitle":"What Makes California's Quake Warning System So Timely?","path":"/quest/49223/what-makes-californias-quake-warning-system-so-timely","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_49224\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 300px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/01/31/what-makes-californias-quake-warning-system-so-timely/caleqwarningtop/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-49224\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/01/CalEQwarningtop-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"The collapsed Cypress Viaduct was the site of the first earthquake early-warning system, in 1989. USGS photo by Howard Wilshire\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-49224\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The collapsed Cypress Viaduct in Oakland was the site of the first earthquake early-warning system, in 1989. USGS photo by Howard Wilshire\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>Earlier this week, State Senator Alex Padilla went before the cameras with a group of earthquake scientists to kick-start California into building the world's best earthquake early-warning system. Does such a thing really work? And why should we start now?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Early-warning systems are not a scientific boondoggle; they really work. First things first, though: these do not predict earthquakes. Instead, they're automatic systems that detect quakes right at the epicenter, and measure their size almost instantly. With that information, they signal faraway users that strong shaking is on its way RIGHT NOW. You could call that a prediction if you like, an instant shaking prediction. But quake researchers are extremely allergic to the word \"prediction,\" so please call these warning systems. They're like the tsunami warning systems we're familiar with by now, only a lot faster.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The Bay Area had the world's first example back in 1989, in the aftermath of the Loma Prieta earthquake. It detected aftershocks. It consisted of a handful of seismographs around the epicenter in the Santa Cruz Mountains, a computer and a microwave radio network. When the computer got enough simultaneous signals from the seismographs, it considered that the detection of a large aftershock and sent out an alarm on the radio network. Crews who were taking down the wreckage of the Cypress Structure, 100 kilometers away, got about 20 seconds of warning to back off and get out. You can imagine how useful that system was to those workers, crude as it was.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Today much larger and better systems are at work around the world. Japan's is the most advanced—not so much scientifically, because every system's software uses the latest science, but in terms of being integrated into people's lives. If you saw it in action during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, you can imagine one like it in California.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Senator Padilla's bill was triggered after one of his regular visits to Caltech. (He's an astronomy geek, it turns out.) While he was there, the earthquake people got hold of him and demonstrated the early-warning tools on the California Integrated Seismic Network (\u003ca href=\"http://www.cisn.org/\">CISN\u003c/a>), like the experimental \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/index.php\">ElarmS\u003c/a> project. The CISN people told him, as they've been telling anyone who will listen for ten years now, that they're ready to roll whenever the money can be found. Right now their research relies on a lean stream of funds from government projects and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Padilla's bill (\u003ca href=\"http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201320140SB135\">Senate Bill 135\u003c/a>) is mostly preamble with one new sentence for the Government Code that commits the Office of Emergency Services to work with the CISN partners to \"develop a comprehensive statewide earthquake early warning system in California.\" In the preamble is one unusual item: a reference to \u003ca href=\"http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature11703.html\">a dry scientific paper in \u003ci>Nature\u003c/i> last month\u003c/a>. The paper is also prominently featured in Padilla's news release about SB-135, which linked to a Caltech \u003ca href=\"http://www.caltech.edu/content/faulty-behavior\">press-office piece\u003c/a> on the paper.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Peggy Hellweg, the CISN point person at Cal Berkeley's Seismological Lab, explained where the paper fits in the larger story. Ever since the 1992 Landers quake in Southern California, she told me, a major weak point in our understanding of earthquake faults is how ruptures can expand beyond the limits we thought they had. At Landers, five separately mapped faults gave way at once in a single rupture. On the larger scale, both the giant 2004 Sumatra and 2011 Tohoku quakes ruptured fault segments that no one expected to fail. As for our own San Andreas fault system, we've always taken it as a given that the so-called creeping section, which runs between San Juan Bautista and Parkfield, separates northern and southern California. We don't expect a rupture on either the north or south end of the fault to rip through the creeping section, because its degree of creep—steady motion without earthquakes—would seem to preclude the more wrenching motion of a proper earthquake. It shouldn't have enough strain energy on it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The \u003ci>Nature\u003c/i> paper combined simulations of faulting with lab tests of actual material drill-sampled from the fault zone that ruptured in the large 1999 Chi Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Its authors described scenarios in which ruptures advancing into a creeping fault, if they hit it just right, would set it off. In fact, that supposedly low-strain creeping section could release quite a lot of energy.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>The authors suggested that creeping might be a temporary state between the relaxed state right after a quake (no energy) and the \"stuck\" state that most earthquake faults are in (lots of energy). \"Temporary\" in this case means centuries. If their work holds up and can be generalized, then it's plausible that the San Andreas fault could all go at once. \u003ca href=\"http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/347423/description/Quakes_may_bring_nearby_rocks_closer_to_rupture\">An article in \u003ci>Science News\u003c/i>\u003c/a> quotes some of the cautionary comments, which make the same points I would. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It strikes me as unusual that such a scientific article would be used as a \"news hook\" to promote something as fundamental as a new statewide quake-warning system. Normally, in California, we would cite the latest awful earthquake, because that seems to focus people's attention better. But as Senator Padilla said, better to get a system in place before rather than after the next Big One. I absolutely support SB-135 anyway, regardless of this one paper.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/49223/what-makes-californias-quake-warning-system-so-timely","authors":["6228"],"categories":["quest_11"],"tags":["quest_11711","quest_608","quest_11710","quest_946","quest_13202","quest_2484"],"featImg":"quest_49224","label":"quest"},"quest_3830":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_3830","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"3830","score":null,"sort":[1255122022000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one","title":"Reporter's Notes: Predicting the Next Big One","publishDate":1255122022,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2009/10/radio4-1_earthquake300.jpeg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though I don't use it in the piece, the system of earthquake early warning we profiled – developed by UC Berkeley's Richard Allen, among others – has a name: \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/\">ElarmS\u003c/a>. One of my favorite parts of the ElarmS website is the \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/forms/applicationform.php\">page\u003c/a> where visitors are invited to submit their own ideas for how the system might be used.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I mention this because it illustrates an interesting fact about earthquake prediction, which is that it's not the technology \u003ca href=\"http://www.thetech.org/exhibits_events/online/quakes/waves/p&s_waves.html\">technology\u003c/a> (i.e., \u003ci>how\u003c/i> to predict an earthquake) that's still up for debate, it's what to do with the warning, once we have it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If Allen is right, three years from now ElarmS will be up and running, supplying some – if not a whole lot – of warning before quakes hit. But whether the rest of us receive that warning is largely out of ElarmS's hands. Will someone develop an iPhone app that'll announce the countdown in a GPS-like voice: 10, 9, 8? Will BART rig its system to ElarmS so that every train in the network starts slowing down, as soon as countdown begins? Will fire stations allow their doors to be automatically opened every time an alarm goes off? To borrow the USGS's David Oppenheimer's cringe-inducing example, will surgeons hear an alarm and lift their scalpels?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And what happens when false alarms – and they are inevitable - cause people to turn off their iPhone quake-warning apps, or complain about BART slowdowns? At a conference for environmental journalists last night, I chatted with two Mexicans about how their country has invested in an early-warning system. They rolled their eyes. \"If it only worked!\" Unfortunately, the price for working sometimes might be not working other times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/aboutus/docs/020204mag_policy.php\">Here is a nice depiction of P-waves and S-waves\u003c/a>, if you want to learn more about how prediction (and earthquakes) work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And here's a \u003ca href=\"http://www.cisn.org/\">link\u003c/a> to the California Integrated Seismic Network, which includes the vault I visited in the radio piece (and featured in the slde show below). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cbr clear=\"all\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2009/10/09/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one/\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/images/radio_icon_light.gif\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">Listen to Predicting the Next Big One\u003c/a> radio report online.\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"It's been twenty years since the Loma Prieta Earthquake ravaged downtown Santa Cruz and damaged San Francisco's Marina District and the Bay Bridge. Quest looks at the dramatic improvements in earthquake prediction technology since 1989. But what can be done with ten seconds of warning?","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1680588695,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":11,"wordCount":360},"headData":{"title":"Reporter's Notes: Predicting the Next Big One | KQED","description":"It's been twenty years since the Loma Prieta Earthquake ravaged downtown Santa Cruz and damaged San Francisco's Marina District and the Bay Bridge. Quest looks at the dramatic improvements in earthquake prediction technology since 1989. But what can be done with ten seconds of warning?","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Reporter's Notes: Predicting the Next Big One","datePublished":"2009-10-09T21:00:22.000Z","dateModified":"2023-04-04T06:11:35.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"templateType":"standard","featuredImageType":"standard","excludeFromSiteSearch":"Include","articleAge":"0","path":"/quest/3830/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2009/10/radio4-1_earthquake300.jpeg\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though I don't use it in the piece, the system of earthquake early warning we profiled – developed by UC Berkeley's Richard Allen, among others – has a name: \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/\">ElarmS\u003c/a>. One of my favorite parts of the ElarmS website is the \u003ca href=\"http://www.elarms.org/forms/applicationform.php\">page\u003c/a> where visitors are invited to submit their own ideas for how the system might be used.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>I mention this because it illustrates an interesting fact about earthquake prediction, which is that it's not the technology \u003ca href=\"http://www.thetech.org/exhibits_events/online/quakes/waves/p&s_waves.html\">technology\u003c/a> (i.e., \u003ci>how\u003c/i> to predict an earthquake) that's still up for debate, it's what to do with the warning, once we have it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If Allen is right, three years from now ElarmS will be up and running, supplying some – if not a whole lot – of warning before quakes hit. But whether the rest of us receive that warning is largely out of ElarmS's hands. Will someone develop an iPhone app that'll announce the countdown in a GPS-like voice: 10, 9, 8? Will BART rig its system to ElarmS so that every train in the network starts slowing down, as soon as countdown begins? Will fire stations allow their doors to be automatically opened every time an alarm goes off? To borrow the USGS's David Oppenheimer's cringe-inducing example, will surgeons hear an alarm and lift their scalpels?\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And what happens when false alarms – and they are inevitable - cause people to turn off their iPhone quake-warning apps, or complain about BART slowdowns? At a conference for environmental journalists last night, I chatted with two Mexicans about how their country has invested in an early-warning system. They rolled their eyes. \"If it only worked!\" Unfortunately, the price for working sometimes might be not working other times.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://earthquake.usgs.gov/aboutus/docs/020204mag_policy.php\">Here is a nice depiction of P-waves and S-waves\u003c/a>, if you want to learn more about how prediction (and earthquakes) work.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>And here's a \u003ca href=\"http://www.cisn.org/\">link\u003c/a> to the California Integrated Seismic Network, which includes the vault I visited in the radio piece (and featured in the slde show below). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cbr clear=\"all\">\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003ca href=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2009/10/09/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one/\">\u003cimg decoding=\"async\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/images/radio_icon_light.gif\" alt=\"\">\u003c/a>\u003c/span>\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/audio/predicting-the-next-big-one\">Listen to Predicting the Next Big One\u003c/a> radio report online.\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/3830/reporters-notes-predicting-the-next-big-one","authors":["210"],"categories":["quest_1"],"tags":["quest_450","quest_608","quest_776","quest_908","quest_946","quest_1684","quest_2429","quest_3021","quest_3048"],"label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. 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And you join us on the journey to find the answers.","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Bay-Curious-Podcast-Tile-703x703-1.jpg","imageAlt":"\"KQED Bay Curious","officialWebsiteLink":"/news/series/baycurious","meta":{"site":"news","source":"kqed","order":"4"},"link":"/podcasts/baycurious","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bay-curious/id1172473406","npr":"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/500557090/bay-curious","rss":"https://ww2.kqed.org/news/category/bay-curious-podcast/feed/podcast","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93dzIua3FlZC5vcmcvbmV3cy9jYXRlZ29yeS9iYXktY3VyaW91cy1wb2RjYXN0L2ZlZWQvcG9kY2FzdA","stitcher":"https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/kqed/bay-curious","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/6O76IdmhixfijmhTZLIJ8k"}},"bbc-world-service":{"id":"bbc-world-service","title":"BBC World Service","info":"The day's top stories from BBC News compiled twice daily in the week, once at weekends.","airtime":"MON-FRI 9pm-10pm, TUE-FRI 1am-2am","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/BBC-World-Service-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","officialWebsiteLink":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_world_service","meta":{"site":"news","source":"BBC World Service"},"link":"/radio/program/bbc-world-service","subscribe":{"apple":"https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/global-news-podcast/id135067274?mt=2","tuneIn":"https://tunein.com/radio/BBC-World-Service-p455581/","rss":"https://podcasts.files.bbci.co.uk/p02nq0gn.rss"}},"code-switch-life-kit":{"id":"code-switch-life-kit","title":"Code Switch / Life Kit","info":"\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em>, which listeners will hear in the first part of the hour, has fearless and much-needed conversations about race. Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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