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and Near-Earth Asteroid","publishDate":1346955824,"status":"inherit","parent":43573,"modified":1346955824,"caption":"Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid","credit":null,"description":"Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid","imgSizes":{"thumbnail":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid-400x225.jpg","width":400,"height":225,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-32":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid-32x32.jpg","width":32,"height":32,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-64":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid-64x64.jpg","width":64,"height":64,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-96":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid-96x96.jpg","width":96,"height":96,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"guest-author-128":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid-128x128.jpg","width":128,"height":128,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"detail":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid-75x75.jpg","width":75,"height":75,"mimeType":"image/jpeg"},"kqedFullSize":{"file":"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid.jpg","width":640,"height":360}},"fetchFailed":false,"isLoading":false}},"audioPlayerReducer":{"postId":"stream_live"},"authorsReducer":{"ben-burress":{"type":"authors","id":"6180","meta":{"index":"authors_1591205172","id":"6180","found":true},"name":"Ben Burress","firstName":"Ben","lastName":"Burress","slug":"ben-burress","email":"bburress@chabotspace.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"\u003cstrong>Benjamin Burress\u003c/strong> has been a staff astronomer at Chabot Space & Science Center since July 1999. He graduated from Sonoma State University in 1985 with a bachelor’s degree in physics (and minor in astronomy), after which he signed on for a two-year stint in the Peace Corps, where he taught physics and mathematics in the African nation of Cameroon. From 1989-96 he served on the crew of NASA’s Kuiper Airborne Observatory at Ames Research Center in Mountain View, CA. From 1996-99, he was Head Observer at the Naval Prototype Optical Interferometer program at Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, AZ.\r\n\r\nRead his \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/author/ben-burress/\">previous contributions\u003c/a> to \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/\">QUEST\u003c/a>, a project dedicated to exploring the Science of Sustainability.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8263bffa345b7e4923a0b8b9f0f6a161?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Ben Burress | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8263bffa345b7e4923a0b8b9f0f6a161?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8263bffa345b7e4923a0b8b9f0f6a161?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/ben-burress"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"home","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"quest_43573":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_43573","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"43573","score":null,"sort":[1347035649000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world","title":"Will the Asteroid Apophis Rock Our World? ","publishDate":1347035649,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_43575\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/09/07/will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world/earth-and-asteroid/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-43575\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-43575\" title=\"Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid.jpg\" alt=\"Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The red phone on my desk went off again, flashing and beeping urgently. What was it this time? Another super-villain escaped from prison, threatening the safety of Oakland City again? I pick up the phone to find out. Ah, it was Apophis again, back in the public eye and causing concern for one of our citizens. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This has been a dramatization. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At Chabot Space & Science Center, I'm the one who answers the science help line, which is why I keep my cape and cowl close at hand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ah, \u003ca title=\"Apophis on Bad Astronomy\" href=\"http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/01/31/repeat-after-me-apophis-is-not-a-danger/\" target=\"_blank\">Apophis\u003c/a>, that thousand-foot chuck of rock plotting to buzz the Earth. The citizen on the phone has called about Apophis before, so I figured it was time to back up my response with the word from a resident asteroid expert, Gerald, one of Chabot's asteroid tracking team—like Alfred passing the phone to Bruce. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gerald's report on Apophis: After 3.8 years of observations, we project that Apophis will pass by (and miss) the Earth by about 23,600 miles on April 13 (yeah—Friday the 13th) 2029 (in case you want to plan a party). Then, Apophis will revisit the Earth's vicinity on April 13th (not a Friday) 2036. And here's the meat of the deal with Apophis: if its trajectory on the 2029 flyby is anywhere near what is predicted, then there is no chance at all that it will hit us in 2036. There is only a small chance that within the range of uncertainty the 2029 passage will aim Apophis for a 2036 impact with Earth--but the probability of that are calculated at less than 0.002%. That's roughly the same probability as drawing a straight flush right off the top of the deck (to you non-poker-players, the odds of that are about 72,000 to 1).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though astronomers are planning to observe Apophis next year using the giant radio telescope at Arecibo to give us a more refined impact probability for the 2036 passage (still 24 years out!), the consensus among scientists is that the refinement should further diffuse concerns, not raise them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We know of about \u003ca title=\"Asteroid Risk Sentry Page\" href=\"http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/\" target=\"_blank\">1300 asteroids of significant size\u003c/a> that can pass close to Earth, and estimate there may be up to two or three times as many that we haven't spotted yet, but at this time there are no major threats projected to occur in the foreseeable future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2013 there are two notable asteroid flybys of Earth. On February 15 a rock of the 200-foot size, called 2012 DA14, will cross our evening skies and pass within 17,760 miles of us, well within the fleet geosynchronous satellites that ring the Earth. It won't , repeat, won't hit us at this time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Later in 2013, a much bigger asteroid, called 2005 WK4, will pass by at a much greater distance. The object is somewhere between 950 and 1420 feet across, but will pass no closer than about 2 million miles, on August 9th. Again, there is zero chance that it will hit us.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With all of those rocks flying around that can cross Earth's orbit and therefore be a impact threat, what are the odds of one hitting us? Generally speaking, an object of the several hundred foot size hits Earth every few thousand years. In fact one did so in 1908, over Siberia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More sizeable objects, between 600 and 1600 feet across, strike us about every 100,000 years. And those really big ones, like the 6-mile diameter asteroid that struck the tip of the Yucatan 65 million years ago, the impact that is thought to have led to the demise of the dinosaurs, run into us about every 100 million years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These are really steep odds if you're playing poker, but in this case that's a good thing. \u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"With all of the giant rocks flying around in space that can cross Earth's orbit and therefore be a impact threat, what are the odds of one hitting us?","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1370998420,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":657},"headData":{"title":"Will the Asteroid Apophis Rock Our World? | KQED","description":"With all of the giant rocks flying around in space that can cross Earth's orbit and therefore be a impact threat, what are the odds of one hitting us?","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Will the Asteroid Apophis Rock Our World? ","datePublished":"2012-09-07T16:34:09.000Z","dateModified":"2013-06-12T00:53:40.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"43573 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=43573","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/09/07/will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world/","disqusTitle":"Will the Asteroid Apophis Rock Our World? ","WpOldSlug":"will-apophis-rock-our-world","path":"/quest/43573/will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_43575\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/09/07/will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world/earth-and-asteroid/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-43575\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-43575\" title=\"Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid.jpg\" alt=\"Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The red phone on my desk went off again, flashing and beeping urgently. What was it this time? Another super-villain escaped from prison, threatening the safety of Oakland City again? I pick up the phone to find out. Ah, it was Apophis again, back in the public eye and causing concern for one of our citizens. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This has been a dramatization. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At Chabot Space & Science Center, I'm the one who answers the science help line, which is why I keep my cape and cowl close at hand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ah, \u003ca title=\"Apophis on Bad Astronomy\" href=\"http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/01/31/repeat-after-me-apophis-is-not-a-danger/\" target=\"_blank\">Apophis\u003c/a>, that thousand-foot chuck of rock plotting to buzz the Earth. The citizen on the phone has called about Apophis before, so I figured it was time to back up my response with the word from a resident asteroid expert, Gerald, one of Chabot's asteroid tracking team—like Alfred passing the phone to Bruce. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gerald's report on Apophis: After 3.8 years of observations, we project that Apophis will pass by (and miss) the Earth by about 23,600 miles on April 13 (yeah—Friday the 13th) 2029 (in case you want to plan a party). Then, Apophis will revisit the Earth's vicinity on April 13th (not a Friday) 2036. And here's the meat of the deal with Apophis: if its trajectory on the 2029 flyby is anywhere near what is predicted, then there is no chance at all that it will hit us in 2036. There is only a small chance that within the range of uncertainty the 2029 passage will aim Apophis for a 2036 impact with Earth--but the probability of that are calculated at less than 0.002%. That's roughly the same probability as drawing a straight flush right off the top of the deck (to you non-poker-players, the odds of that are about 72,000 to 1).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though astronomers are planning to observe Apophis next year using the giant radio telescope at Arecibo to give us a more refined impact probability for the 2036 passage (still 24 years out!), the consensus among scientists is that the refinement should further diffuse concerns, not raise them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We know of about \u003ca title=\"Asteroid Risk Sentry Page\" href=\"http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/\" target=\"_blank\">1300 asteroids of significant size\u003c/a> that can pass close to Earth, and estimate there may be up to two or three times as many that we haven't spotted yet, but at this time there are no major threats projected to occur in the foreseeable future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2013 there are two notable asteroid flybys of Earth. On February 15 a rock of the 200-foot size, called 2012 DA14, will cross our evening skies and pass within 17,760 miles of us, well within the fleet geosynchronous satellites that ring the Earth. It won't , repeat, won't hit us at this time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Later in 2013, a much bigger asteroid, called 2005 WK4, will pass by at a much greater distance. The object is somewhere between 950 and 1420 feet across, but will pass no closer than about 2 million miles, on August 9th. Again, there is zero chance that it will hit us.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With all of those rocks flying around that can cross Earth's orbit and therefore be a impact threat, what are the odds of one hitting us? Generally speaking, an object of the several hundred foot size hits Earth every few thousand years. In fact one did so in 1908, over Siberia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More sizeable objects, between 600 and 1600 feet across, strike us about every 100,000 years. And those really big ones, like the 6-mile diameter asteroid that struck the tip of the Yucatan 65 million years ago, the impact that is thought to have led to the demise of the dinosaurs, run into us about every 100 million years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These are really steep odds if you're playing poker, but in this case that's a good thing. \u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/43573/will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world","authors":["6180"],"categories":["quest_3"],"tags":["quest_11415","quest_190","quest_233","quest_544","quest_651","quest_11416","quest_1957","quest_13202"],"featImg":"quest_43575","label":"quest"},"quest_1848":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_1848","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"1848","score":null,"sort":[1237993156000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"asteroid-apophis-hit-or-miss","title":"Asteroid Apophis--Hit or Miss?","publishDate":1237993156,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2009/03/meteor-crater.jpg\">\u003cem>Apophis is about the same size as the asteroid that blasted \u003cbr>the mile-wide Barringer Crater in Arizona.\u003cbr>Credit: David Roddy, USGS\u003c/em>\u003c/span>Friday the 13th, April, 2029: If you're superstitious, this might not be a good day to schedule a near-Earth asteroid encounter. But, as it happens, that's the day that the Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Apophis will make a very close flyby of Earth--a once in 800 years event for an asteroid Apophis' size. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fortunately, scientists have already predicted, 20 years in advance, that this is our lucky day: Apophis won't hit the Earth at that time. Rest assured (pretty much). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Discovered in 2004, Apophis is an asteroid about 270 meters across that orbits the Sun at distances ranging from about one astronomical unit (1 AU; the distance between Earth and the Sun) and about three quarters of an AU. Apophis orbits the Sun once every 323 days. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After its initial discovery, before our knowledge of its orbital trajectory had been refined, astronomers had predicted that there was a \u003ca href=\"http://www.astronomy.com/asy/default.aspx?c=a&id=3434\">small chance it could hit the Earth\u003c/a> on April 13, 2029, but as we got a clearer picture of its orbit the probability dwindled to practically nothing. Instead, Apophis will pass by Earth no closer than about 18,000 miles. Whew! Disaster averted, and we didn't even have to send Bruce Willis to deal with it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But wait--that's not all. Though Apophis almost certainly won't hit us in 2029, there's a chance that this close encounter will set the asteroid up for an impact with Earth in 2036--something like 1 in 45,000. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, if we know there won't be an impact in 2029, why don't we know whether or not there will be one in 2036? \u003ca href=\"http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/\">Why all the suspense?\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here's where I pull out my pinball analogy. Think of a pinball machine. The play zone around your flippers represents near-Earth space, the various bumpers up in the field represent all the planets, the Sun, and other large asteroids of the Solar System, and the pinball represents a Near Earth Asteroid, like Apophis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When the pinball inevitably comes into the play zone, there are two possibilities: either it will hit (or be hit by) one of your flippers and thus be deflected back into the field where it will bounce around some more between bumpers, or it will sail right through that dreaded \"window\" between the tips of the flippers and fall into the end pocket--which represents Terra Firma and a catastrophe if a NEA falls there. As any pinball player knows, it's nearly impossible to predict exactly what path the pinball will follow into the play zone until it gets close.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's a lot like that with a NEA in the Solar System: as it orbits around the Sun, its course is influenced by the gravitational pull of planets, large asteroids, and potentially smaller asteroids that it might pass close to. A very small deviation in a NEA's direction or speed can, over time, \"amplify\" into a very large difference in position much farther down the road. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given the 2029 close encounter with Earth, though we're reasonably confident Apophis won't hit us on that pass, we don't know precisely how that encounter will alter Apophis' orbit. The gravitational interaction between Earth and a NEA passing close by is a complex one, with many variables, not the least of which is Earth's non-uniform gravitational field.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If Apophis passes Earth through precisely the right \"window\" in 2029--say, right between the flipper tips--then it could be set up for an impact at its 2036 encounter. That window, called a gravitational keyhole, is only about 600 meters across for the 2029 encounter. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As we gather more data on Apophis, we'll get a better prediction for what may happen in 2036--but right now the odds are that it will ultimately miss us at that time. That's a good thing, too, because at that time Bruce Willis will be 81 years old... and even John Glenn was only 80 when he returned to space... \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.7631 -122.409\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Friday the 13th, April, 2029: If you're superstitious, this might not be a good day to schedule a near-Earth asteroid encounter.","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1371079110,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":15,"wordCount":704},"headData":{"title":"Asteroid Apophis--Hit or Miss? | KQED","description":"Friday the 13th, April, 2029: If you're superstitious, this might not be a good day to schedule a near-Earth asteroid encounter.","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":"","schema":{"@context":"http://schema.org","@type":"Article","headline":"Asteroid Apophis--Hit or Miss?","datePublished":"2009-03-25T14:59:16.000Z","dateModified":"2013-06-12T23:18:30.000Z","image":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/KQED-OG-Image@1x.png"}},"disqusIdentifier":"1848 http://www.kqed.org/quest/blog/?p=1848","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2009/03/25/asteroid-apophis-hit-or-miss/","disqusTitle":"Asteroid Apophis--Hit or Miss?","path":"/quest/1848/asteroid-apophis-hit-or-miss","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cp>\u003cspan class=\"left\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2009/03/meteor-crater.jpg\">\u003cem>Apophis is about the same size as the asteroid that blasted \u003cbr>the mile-wide Barringer Crater in Arizona.\u003cbr>Credit: David Roddy, USGS\u003c/em>\u003c/span>Friday the 13th, April, 2029: If you're superstitious, this might not be a good day to schedule a near-Earth asteroid encounter. But, as it happens, that's the day that the Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Apophis will make a very close flyby of Earth--a once in 800 years event for an asteroid Apophis' size. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Fortunately, scientists have already predicted, 20 years in advance, that this is our lucky day: Apophis won't hit the Earth at that time. Rest assured (pretty much). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Discovered in 2004, Apophis is an asteroid about 270 meters across that orbits the Sun at distances ranging from about one astronomical unit (1 AU; the distance between Earth and the Sun) and about three quarters of an AU. Apophis orbits the Sun once every 323 days. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>After its initial discovery, before our knowledge of its orbital trajectory had been refined, astronomers had predicted that there was a \u003ca href=\"http://www.astronomy.com/asy/default.aspx?c=a&id=3434\">small chance it could hit the Earth\u003c/a> on April 13, 2029, but as we got a clearer picture of its orbit the probability dwindled to practically nothing. Instead, Apophis will pass by Earth no closer than about 18,000 miles. Whew! Disaster averted, and we didn't even have to send Bruce Willis to deal with it.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>But wait--that's not all. Though Apophis almost certainly won't hit us in 2029, there's a chance that this close encounter will set the asteroid up for an impact with Earth in 2036--something like 1 in 45,000. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, if we know there won't be an impact in 2029, why don't we know whether or not there will be one in 2036? \u003ca href=\"http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/\">Why all the suspense?\u003c/a>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Here's where I pull out my pinball analogy. Think of a pinball machine. The play zone around your flippers represents near-Earth space, the various bumpers up in the field represent all the planets, the Sun, and other large asteroids of the Solar System, and the pinball represents a Near Earth Asteroid, like Apophis.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>When the pinball inevitably comes into the play zone, there are two possibilities: either it will hit (or be hit by) one of your flippers and thus be deflected back into the field where it will bounce around some more between bumpers, or it will sail right through that dreaded \"window\" between the tips of the flippers and fall into the end pocket--which represents Terra Firma and a catastrophe if a NEA falls there. As any pinball player knows, it's nearly impossible to predict exactly what path the pinball will follow into the play zone until it gets close.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>It's a lot like that with a NEA in the Solar System: as it orbits around the Sun, its course is influenced by the gravitational pull of planets, large asteroids, and potentially smaller asteroids that it might pass close to. A very small deviation in a NEA's direction or speed can, over time, \"amplify\" into a very large difference in position much farther down the road. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Given the 2029 close encounter with Earth, though we're reasonably confident Apophis won't hit us on that pass, we don't know precisely how that encounter will alter Apophis' orbit. The gravitational interaction between Earth and a NEA passing close by is a complex one, with many variables, not the least of which is Earth's non-uniform gravitational field.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>If Apophis passes Earth through precisely the right \"window\" in 2029--say, right between the flipper tips--then it could be set up for an impact at its 2036 encounter. That window, called a gravitational keyhole, is only about 600 meters across for the 2029 encounter. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>As we gather more data on Apophis, we'll get a better prediction for what may happen in 2036--but right now the odds are that it will ultimately miss us at that time. That's a good thing, too, because at that time Bruce Willis will be 81 years old... and even John Glenn was only 80 when he returned to space... \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp> 37.7631 -122.409\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/1848/asteroid-apophis-hit-or-miss","authors":["6180"],"categories":["quest_3"],"tags":["quest_190","quest_13192","quest_1453","quest_1952","quest_1968"],"label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. The show features interviews with visionary guests like Trevor Noah, Sam Altman and Janette Sadik-Khan. Possible paints an optimistic portrait of the world we can create through science, policy, business, art and our shared humanity. 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Hosted by journalists of color, the show tackles the subject of race head-on, exploring how it impacts every part of society — from politics and pop culture to history, sports and more.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em>, which will be in the second part of the hour, guides you through spaces and feelings no one prepares you for — from finances to mental health, from workplace microaggressions to imposter syndrome, from relationships to parenting. The show features experts with real world experience and shares their knowledge. Because everyone needs a little help being human.\u003cbr />\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510312/codeswitch\">\u003cem>Code Switch\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />\u003ca href=\"https://www.npr.org/lifekit\">\u003cem>Life Kit\u003c/em> offical site and podcast\u003c/a>\u003cbr />","airtime":"SUN 9pm-10pm","imageSrc":"https://cdn.kqed.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Code-Switch-Life-Kit-Podcast-Tile-360x360-1.jpg","meta":{"site":"radio","source":"npr"},"link":"/radio/program/code-switch-life-kit","subscribe":{"apple":"https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/1112190608?mt=2&at=11l79Y&ct=nprdirectory","google":"https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnByLm9yZy9yc3MvcG9kY2FzdC5waHA_aWQ9NTEwMzEy","spotify":"https://open.spotify.com/show/3bExJ9JQpkwNhoHvaIIuyV","rss":"https://feeds.npr.org/510312/podcast.xml"}},"commonwealth-club":{"id":"commonwealth-club","title":"Commonwealth Club of California Podcast","info":"The Commonwealth Club of California is the nation's oldest and largest public affairs forum. 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