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Burress","firstName":"Ben","lastName":"Burress","slug":"ben-burress","email":"bburress@chabotspace.org","display_author_email":false,"staff_mastheads":[],"title":null,"bio":"\u003cstrong>Benjamin Burress\u003c/strong> has been a staff astronomer at Chabot Space & Science Center since July 1999. He graduated from Sonoma State University in 1985 with a bachelor’s degree in physics (and minor in astronomy), after which he signed on for a two-year stint in the Peace Corps, where he taught physics and mathematics in the African nation of Cameroon. From 1989-96 he served on the crew of NASA’s Kuiper Airborne Observatory at Ames Research Center in Mountain View, CA. From 1996-99, he was Head Observer at the Naval Prototype Optical Interferometer program at Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, AZ.\r\n\r\nRead his \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/author/ben-burress/\">previous contributions\u003c/a> to \u003ca href=\"http://science.kqed.org/quest/\">QUEST\u003c/a>, a project dedicated to exploring the Science of Sustainability.","avatar":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8263bffa345b7e4923a0b8b9f0f6a161?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twitter":null,"facebook":null,"instagram":null,"linkedin":null,"sites":[{"site":"science","roles":["editor"]},{"site":"quest","roles":["subscriber"]}],"headData":{"title":"Ben Burress | KQED","description":null,"ogImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8263bffa345b7e4923a0b8b9f0f6a161?s=600&d=blank&r=g","twImgSrc":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/8263bffa345b7e4923a0b8b9f0f6a161?s=600&d=blank&r=g"},"isLoading":false,"link":"/author/ben-burress"}},"breakingNewsReducer":{},"campaignFinanceReducer":{},"firebase":{"requesting":{},"requested":{},"timestamps":{},"data":{},"ordered":{},"auth":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"authError":null,"profile":{"isLoaded":false,"isEmpty":true},"listeners":{"byId":{},"allIds":[]},"isInitializing":false,"errors":[]},"navBarReducer":{"navBarId":"home","fullView":true,"showPlayer":false},"navMenuReducer":{"menus":[{"key":"menu1","items":[{"name":"News","link":"/","type":"title"},{"name":"Politics","link":"/politics"},{"name":"Science","link":"/science"},{"name":"Education","link":"/educationnews"},{"name":"Housing","link":"/housing"},{"name":"Immigration","link":"/immigration"},{"name":"Criminal Justice","link":"/criminaljustice"},{"name":"Silicon Valley","link":"/siliconvalley"},{"name":"Forum","link":"/forum"},{"name":"The California Report","link":"/californiareport"}]},{"key":"menu2","items":[{"name":"Arts & Culture","link":"/arts","type":"title"},{"name":"Critics’ Picks","link":"/thedolist"},{"name":"Cultural Commentary","link":"/artscommentary"},{"name":"Food & Drink","link":"/food"},{"name":"Bay Area Hip-Hop","link":"/bayareahiphop"},{"name":"Rebel Girls","link":"/rebelgirls"},{"name":"Arts Video","link":"/artsvideos"}]},{"key":"menu3","items":[{"name":"Podcasts","link":"/podcasts","type":"title"},{"name":"Bay Curious","link":"/podcasts/baycurious"},{"name":"Rightnowish","link":"/podcasts/rightnowish"},{"name":"The Bay","link":"/podcasts/thebay"},{"name":"On Our Watch","link":"/podcasts/onourwatch"},{"name":"Mindshift","link":"/podcasts/mindshift"},{"name":"Consider This","link":"/podcasts/considerthis"},{"name":"Political Breakdown","link":"/podcasts/politicalbreakdown"}]},{"key":"menu4","items":[{"name":"Live Radio","link":"/radio","type":"title"},{"name":"TV","link":"/tv","type":"title"},{"name":"Events","link":"/events","type":"title"},{"name":"For Educators","link":"/education","type":"title"},{"name":"Support KQED","link":"/support","type":"title"},{"name":"About","link":"/about","type":"title"},{"name":"Help Center","link":"https://kqed-helpcenter.kqed.org/s","type":"title"}]}]},"pagesReducer":{},"postsReducer":{"stream_live":{"type":"live","id":"stream_live","audioUrl":"https://streams.kqed.org/kqedradio","title":"Live Stream","excerpt":"Live Stream information currently unavailable.","link":"/radio","featImg":"","label":{"name":"KQED Live","link":"/"}},"stream_kqedNewscast":{"type":"posts","id":"stream_kqedNewscast","audioUrl":"https://www.kqed.org/.stream/anon/radio/RDnews/newscast.mp3?_=1","title":"KQED Newscast","featImg":"","label":{"name":"88.5 FM","link":"/"}},"quest_49428":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_49428","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"49428","score":null,"sort":[1360964449000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"asteroid-2012-da14-in-line-for-a-rim-shot","title":"Asteroid 2012 DA14: In Line For a Rim Shot","publishDate":1360964449,"format":"aside","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_49430\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/02/08/asteroid-2012-da14-in-line-for-a-rim-shot/2012da14/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-49430\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/2012DA14.jpg\" alt=\"Asteroid 2012 DA14 Flyby February 15 2013\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-49430\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/2012DA14.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/2012DA14-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Asteroid 2012 DA14 Flyby February 15 2013\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Update: A 150-foot asteroid hurtled through Earth's backyard Friday, coming within an incredible 17,150 miles and making the closest known flyby for a rock of its size. Get more info at \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2013/02/15/watch-asteroid-flyby-live/\" target=\"_blank\">KQED News\u003c/a>. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Duck! Here comes asteroid 2012 DA14, grazing close to where you live on February 15th! \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>No, this is not End of the World Part 2. No, it's not a delayed reaction to the end of the Mayan Long Count calendar. In fact this asteroid is guaranteed to NOT hit us right now. Guaranteed!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What this is, in fact, is a reasonably sizeable rock passing reasonably close to the Earth. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How big? Someone with a sense of proportions as well as a sense of humor has likened the asteroid's size to that of a Safeway (between 118 and 265 feet across) and about 130,000 metric tons (that's roughly the mass of about 60,000 SUVs—so if you imagine 60,000 SUVs in a parking lot next to a Safeway, you have an idea of the size and mass of this asteroid!). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While this is a far cry from the larger asteroids we know of, mostly in the Main Asteroid Belt, that average a mile across and can be as big as a few hundred miles, it is significantly larger than some of the Earth-grazers we've seen whiz by in the last few years, which have typically been only a few meters wide. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asteroid 2012 DA14 is in the same size class as the rock responsible for blasting that mile-wide hole in the Arizona desert, known as \u003ca href=\"http://www.meteorcrater.com/\" title=\"Meteor Crater\" target=\"_blank\">Meteor Crater\u003c/a> (a misnomer, as anyone who knows the difference between a meteor and a meteorite knows that meteors are pebbles that burn up in the atmosphere). If 2012 DA14 were to hit Earth, it would deliver a respectable wallop and leave a big hole or splash, but would not kill us all…. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How close is it passing? That's the more interesting part of the story. With a closest approach to Earth's center of 21,200 miles (about 17,200 miles from Earth's surface), this is the closest approach by an asteroid of this size since we really started giving these objects much attention. This is slightly within the distance of geosynchronous satellites that circle the Earth—effectively making this passage a successful rim-shot (and thankfully not a slam-dunk). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So 2012 DA14 won't hit Earth, but will it hit any of the \u003ca href=\"http://celestrak.com/columns/v04n07/\" title=\"Geostationary satellites\" target=\"_blank\">geostationary satellites\u003c/a> that transmit Dish and TV satellite programming? We place those satellites in a ring at the geosynchronous distance—about 22,236 miles—so that their period of revolution around the Earth matches the Earth's rotation and they always remain at the same point in our sky, enabling constant line-of-sight transmission. So, will the asteroid cause a signal blackout while you're watching a football game? \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Thankfully, physics to the rescue again. This will be a rim-shot where the ball comes close to hitting the rim, but will swish right through without contact. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, since this is the largest-closest rock to pass through these parts since we started looking for them, will we be able to see this asteroid? \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.planetary.org/explore/projects/neo-grants/2012-da14-faq.html\" title=\"Asteroid 2012 DA14\" target=\"_blank\">2012 DA14\u003c/a> won't be visible to the unaided eye even at closest approach, but should be visible at least through a small telescope. Also, we are planning to offer the public a look through one or more of our telescopes at Chabot Space & Science Center that Friday evening (weather permitting). If conditions are right, we should be observing the passage from early evening (telescopes open at 7:30 PM) onward until closing at 10:30. So come on up for a Near-miss Celebration!\u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"Duck! Here comes asteroid 2012 DA14, grazing close to where you live on February 15th! ","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1370998075,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":642},"headData":{"title":"Asteroid 2012 DA14: In Line For a Rim Shot | KQED","description":"Duck! Here comes asteroid 2012 DA14, grazing close to where you live on February 15th! ","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"49428 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=49428","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/02/15/asteroid-2012-da14-in-line-for-a-rim-shot/","disqusTitle":"Asteroid 2012 DA14: In Line For a Rim Shot","path":"/quest/49428/asteroid-2012-da14-in-line-for-a-rim-shot","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_49430\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2013/02/08/asteroid-2012-da14-in-line-for-a-rim-shot/2012da14/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-49430\">\u003cimg src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/2012DA14.jpg\" alt=\"Asteroid 2012 DA14 Flyby February 15 2013\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" class=\"size-full wp-image-49430\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/2012DA14.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2013/02/2012DA14-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Asteroid 2012 DA14 Flyby February 15 2013\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>\u003cem>Update: A 150-foot asteroid hurtled through Earth's backyard Friday, coming within an incredible 17,150 miles and making the closest known flyby for a rock of its size. Get more info at \u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/news/2013/02/15/watch-asteroid-flyby-live/\" target=\"_blank\">KQED News\u003c/a>. \u003c/em>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Duck! Here comes asteroid 2012 DA14, grazing close to where you live on February 15th! \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>No, this is not End of the World Part 2. No, it's not a delayed reaction to the end of the Mayan Long Count calendar. In fact this asteroid is guaranteed to NOT hit us right now. Guaranteed!\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>What this is, in fact, is a reasonably sizeable rock passing reasonably close to the Earth. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How big? Someone with a sense of proportions as well as a sense of humor has likened the asteroid's size to that of a Safeway (between 118 and 265 feet across) and about 130,000 metric tons (that's roughly the mass of about 60,000 SUVs—so if you imagine 60,000 SUVs in a parking lot next to a Safeway, you have an idea of the size and mass of this asteroid!). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>While this is a far cry from the larger asteroids we know of, mostly in the Main Asteroid Belt, that average a mile across and can be as big as a few hundred miles, it is significantly larger than some of the Earth-grazers we've seen whiz by in the last few years, which have typically been only a few meters wide. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Asteroid 2012 DA14 is in the same size class as the rock responsible for blasting that mile-wide hole in the Arizona desert, known as \u003ca href=\"http://www.meteorcrater.com/\" title=\"Meteor Crater\" target=\"_blank\">Meteor Crater\u003c/a> (a misnomer, as anyone who knows the difference between a meteor and a meteorite knows that meteors are pebbles that burn up in the atmosphere). If 2012 DA14 were to hit Earth, it would deliver a respectable wallop and leave a big hole or splash, but would not kill us all…. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>How close is it passing? That's the more interesting part of the story. With a closest approach to Earth's center of 21,200 miles (about 17,200 miles from Earth's surface), this is the closest approach by an asteroid of this size since we really started giving these objects much attention. This is slightly within the distance of geosynchronous satellites that circle the Earth—effectively making this passage a successful rim-shot (and thankfully not a slam-dunk). \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So 2012 DA14 won't hit Earth, but will it hit any of the \u003ca href=\"http://celestrak.com/columns/v04n07/\" title=\"Geostationary satellites\" target=\"_blank\">geostationary satellites\u003c/a> that transmit Dish and TV satellite programming? We place those satellites in a ring at the geosynchronous distance—about 22,236 miles—so that their period of revolution around the Earth matches the Earth's rotation and they always remain at the same point in our sky, enabling constant line-of-sight transmission. So, will the asteroid cause a signal blackout while you're watching a football game? \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Thankfully, physics to the rescue again. This will be a rim-shot where the ball comes close to hitting the rim, but will swish right through without contact. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>So, since this is the largest-closest rock to pass through these parts since we started looking for them, will we be able to see this asteroid? \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003ca href=\"http://www.planetary.org/explore/projects/neo-grants/2012-da14-faq.html\" title=\"Asteroid 2012 DA14\" target=\"_blank\">2012 DA14\u003c/a> won't be visible to the unaided eye even at closest approach, but should be visible at least through a small telescope. Also, we are planning to offer the public a look through one or more of our telescopes at Chabot Space & Science Center that Friday evening (weather permitting). If conditions are right, we should be observing the passage from early evening (telescopes open at 7:30 PM) onward until closing at 10:30. So come on up for a Near-miss Celebration!\u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/49428/asteroid-2012-da14-in-line-for-a-rim-shot","authors":["6180"],"categories":["quest_3"],"tags":["quest_11415","quest_233","quest_544","quest_1968","quest_13202","quest_2739"],"featImg":"quest_49430","label":"quest"},"quest_43573":{"type":"posts","id":"quest_43573","meta":{"index":"posts_1591205157","site":"quest","id":"43573","score":null,"sort":[1347035649000]},"guestAuthors":[],"slug":"will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world","title":"Will the Asteroid Apophis Rock Our World? ","publishDate":1347035649,"format":"standard","headTitle":"QUEST | KQED Science","labelTerm":{"site":"quest"},"content":"\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_43575\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/09/07/will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world/earth-and-asteroid/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-43575\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-43575\" title=\"Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid.jpg\" alt=\"Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The red phone on my desk went off again, flashing and beeping urgently. What was it this time? Another super-villain escaped from prison, threatening the safety of Oakland City again? I pick up the phone to find out. Ah, it was Apophis again, back in the public eye and causing concern for one of our citizens. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This has been a dramatization. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At Chabot Space & Science Center, I'm the one who answers the science help line, which is why I keep my cape and cowl close at hand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ah, \u003ca title=\"Apophis on Bad Astronomy\" href=\"http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/01/31/repeat-after-me-apophis-is-not-a-danger/\" target=\"_blank\">Apophis\u003c/a>, that thousand-foot chuck of rock plotting to buzz the Earth. The citizen on the phone has called about Apophis before, so I figured it was time to back up my response with the word from a resident asteroid expert, Gerald, one of Chabot's asteroid tracking team—like Alfred passing the phone to Bruce. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gerald's report on Apophis: After 3.8 years of observations, we project that Apophis will pass by (and miss) the Earth by about 23,600 miles on April 13 (yeah—Friday the 13th) 2029 (in case you want to plan a party). Then, Apophis will revisit the Earth's vicinity on April 13th (not a Friday) 2036. And here's the meat of the deal with Apophis: if its trajectory on the 2029 flyby is anywhere near what is predicted, then there is no chance at all that it will hit us in 2036. There is only a small chance that within the range of uncertainty the 2029 passage will aim Apophis for a 2036 impact with Earth--but the probability of that are calculated at less than 0.002%. That's roughly the same probability as drawing a straight flush right off the top of the deck (to you non-poker-players, the odds of that are about 72,000 to 1).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>[ad fullwidth]\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though astronomers are planning to observe Apophis next year using the giant radio telescope at Arecibo to give us a more refined impact probability for the 2036 passage (still 24 years out!), the consensus among scientists is that the refinement should further diffuse concerns, not raise them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We know of about \u003ca title=\"Asteroid Risk Sentry Page\" href=\"http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/\" target=\"_blank\">1300 asteroids of significant size\u003c/a> that can pass close to Earth, and estimate there may be up to two or three times as many that we haven't spotted yet, but at this time there are no major threats projected to occur in the foreseeable future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2013 there are two notable asteroid flybys of Earth. On February 15 a rock of the 200-foot size, called 2012 DA14, will cross our evening skies and pass within 17,760 miles of us, well within the fleet geosynchronous satellites that ring the Earth. It won't , repeat, won't hit us at this time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Later in 2013, a much bigger asteroid, called 2005 WK4, will pass by at a much greater distance. The object is somewhere between 950 and 1420 feet across, but will pass no closer than about 2 million miles, on August 9th. Again, there is zero chance that it will hit us.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With all of those rocks flying around that can cross Earth's orbit and therefore be a impact threat, what are the odds of one hitting us? Generally speaking, an object of the several hundred foot size hits Earth every few thousand years. In fact one did so in 1908, over Siberia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More sizeable objects, between 600 and 1600 feet across, strike us about every 100,000 years. And those really big ones, like the 6-mile diameter asteroid that struck the tip of the Yucatan 65 million years ago, the impact that is thought to have led to the demise of the dinosaurs, run into us about every 100 million years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These are really steep odds if you're playing poker, but in this case that's a good thing. \u003c/p>\n\n","blocks":[],"excerpt":"With all of the giant rocks flying around in space that can cross Earth's orbit and therefore be a impact threat, what are the odds of one hitting us?","status":"publish","parent":0,"modified":1370998420,"stats":{"hasAudio":false,"hasVideo":false,"hasChartOrMap":false,"iframeSrcs":[],"hasGoogleForm":false,"hasGallery":false,"hasHearkenModule":false,"hasPolis":false,"paragraphCount":14,"wordCount":657},"headData":{"title":"Will the Asteroid Apophis Rock Our World? | KQED","description":"With all of the giant rocks flying around in space that can cross Earth's orbit and therefore be a impact threat, what are the odds of one hitting us?","ogTitle":"","ogDescription":"","ogImgId":"","twTitle":"","twDescription":"","twImgId":""},"disqusIdentifier":"43573 http://science.kqed.org/quest/?p=43573","disqusUrl":"https://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/09/07/will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world/","disqusTitle":"Will the Asteroid Apophis Rock Our World? ","WpOldSlug":"will-apophis-rock-our-world","path":"/quest/43573/will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world","audioTrackLength":null,"parsedContent":[{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003cfigure id=\"attachment_43575\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 640px\">\u003ca href=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/2012/09/07/will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world/earth-and-asteroid/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-43575\">\u003cimg class=\"size-full wp-image-43575\" title=\"Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\" src=\"http://ww2.kqed.org/quest/wp-content/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid.jpg\" alt=\"Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid.jpg 640w, https://ww2.kqed.org/app/uploads/sites/39/2012/09/earth-and-asteroid-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\">\u003c/a>\u003cfigcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Earth and Near-Earth Asteroid--dramatization only\u003c/figcaption>\u003c/figure>\n\u003cp>The red phone on my desk went off again, flashing and beeping urgently. What was it this time? Another super-villain escaped from prison, threatening the safety of Oakland City again? I pick up the phone to find out. Ah, it was Apophis again, back in the public eye and causing concern for one of our citizens. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>This has been a dramatization. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>At Chabot Space & Science Center, I'm the one who answers the science help line, which is why I keep my cape and cowl close at hand.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Ah, \u003ca title=\"Apophis on Bad Astronomy\" href=\"http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/01/31/repeat-after-me-apophis-is-not-a-danger/\" target=\"_blank\">Apophis\u003c/a>, that thousand-foot chuck of rock plotting to buzz the Earth. The citizen on the phone has called about Apophis before, so I figured it was time to back up my response with the word from a resident asteroid expert, Gerald, one of Chabot's asteroid tracking team—like Alfred passing the phone to Bruce. \u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Gerald's report on Apophis: After 3.8 years of observations, we project that Apophis will pass by (and miss) the Earth by about 23,600 miles on April 13 (yeah—Friday the 13th) 2029 (in case you want to plan a party). Then, Apophis will revisit the Earth's vicinity on April 13th (not a Friday) 2036. And here's the meat of the deal with Apophis: if its trajectory on the 2029 flyby is anywhere near what is predicted, then there is no chance at all that it will hit us in 2036. There is only a small chance that within the range of uncertainty the 2029 passage will aim Apophis for a 2036 impact with Earth--but the probability of that are calculated at less than 0.002%. That's roughly the same probability as drawing a straight flush right off the top of the deck (to you non-poker-players, the odds of that are about 72,000 to 1).\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\u003c/div>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}},{"type":"component","content":"","name":"ad","attributes":{"named":{"label":"fullwidth"},"numeric":["fullwidth"]}},{"type":"contentString","content":"\u003cdiv class=\"post-body\">\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Though astronomers are planning to observe Apophis next year using the giant radio telescope at Arecibo to give us a more refined impact probability for the 2036 passage (still 24 years out!), the consensus among scientists is that the refinement should further diffuse concerns, not raise them.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>We know of about \u003ca title=\"Asteroid Risk Sentry Page\" href=\"http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/\" target=\"_blank\">1300 asteroids of significant size\u003c/a> that can pass close to Earth, and estimate there may be up to two or three times as many that we haven't spotted yet, but at this time there are no major threats projected to occur in the foreseeable future.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>In 2013 there are two notable asteroid flybys of Earth. On February 15 a rock of the 200-foot size, called 2012 DA14, will cross our evening skies and pass within 17,760 miles of us, well within the fleet geosynchronous satellites that ring the Earth. It won't , repeat, won't hit us at this time.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>Later in 2013, a much bigger asteroid, called 2005 WK4, will pass by at a much greater distance. The object is somewhere between 950 and 1420 feet across, but will pass no closer than about 2 million miles, on August 9th. Again, there is zero chance that it will hit us.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>With all of those rocks flying around that can cross Earth's orbit and therefore be a impact threat, what are the odds of one hitting us? Generally speaking, an object of the several hundred foot size hits Earth every few thousand years. In fact one did so in 1908, over Siberia.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>More sizeable objects, between 600 and 1600 feet across, strike us about every 100,000 years. And those really big ones, like the 6-mile diameter asteroid that struck the tip of the Yucatan 65 million years ago, the impact that is thought to have led to the demise of the dinosaurs, run into us about every 100 million years.\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>\u003c/p>\n\u003cp>These are really steep odds if you're playing poker, but in this case that's a good thing. \u003c/p>\n\n\u003c/div>\u003c/p>","attributes":{"named":{},"numeric":[]}}],"link":"/quest/43573/will-the-asteroid-apophis-rock-our-world","authors":["6180"],"categories":["quest_3"],"tags":["quest_11415","quest_190","quest_233","quest_544","quest_651","quest_11416","quest_1957","quest_13202"],"featImg":"quest_43575","label":"quest"}},"programsReducer":{"possible":{"id":"possible","title":"Possible","info":"Possible is hosted by entrepreneur Reid Hoffman and writer Aria Finger. Together in Possible, Hoffman and Finger lead enlightening discussions about building a brighter collective future. 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