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Kepler Spots Hundreds of Possible Planets

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Artist concept of an Earthlike Exoplanet. Credit: ESO
It's been a little over a year since NASA's Kepler telescope was launched into space. Its mission: to stare unblinkingly at 156,000 stars in a patch of sky in the constellations Lyra and Cygnus on a quest to spot extrasolar planets. Results so far? As anticipated…astounding.

It's been 15 years since the first extrasolar planet (exoplanet: planet orbiting a star other than our Sun) was confirmed to exist. Since that time and until the launch of Kepler, subsequent detections have racked up the number by about one a month to well over 400. Planets, see? Worlds! What would we name them if we knew them more intimately, as we do Jupiter and Neptune?

What are they like, and how are we seeing them? Well—we don't exactly see them; we detect their presence by their affect on their parent stars: small wiggles and wobbles that their gravity and motion cause in their star, or tiny dips in star brightness when they pass in front of it ("transit").

As for what they're like, so far we've detected mostly very large planets—gas giants, like Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune—that are relatively close to their stars. "Hot Jupiters" they've been called, for obvious reasons. The bigger the planet, the greater its gravitational or eclipsing effects; the closer the planet to its star, the shorter its orbital period and so the more frequently we can detect their influences.

NASA's Kepler mission has a slightly different goal than finding Hot Jupiters. Using the "transit method" of looking for small drops in star brightness, Kepler is looking for Earth-sized planets orbiting their stars at Earth-like distances—in a nutshell, we're looking for environments similar to those of Earth, since Earth's environment is the one that we know supports life.

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Since the drop in light caused by the transit of a small planet is much more difficult to detect, Kepler is located in space, outside of Earth's distorting atmosphere. And since Kepler is looking for transits that should occur only one time in many months, and which may last only hours, it must observe constantly over a long time, without "blinking".

So what has Kepler come up with so far? NASA recently released data from Kepler taken in the first 43 days of its science mission. How many candidates for exoplanethood, you ask? The report announced a total of 706 possible detections in that 43 days—although NASA has only released the data on 306 of the lower priority detections, holding back a balance of about 400 "more interesting" candidates for more detailed study. What has piqued their interest on these, I really want to know….

And the Kepler candidates are not a mix of Hot Jupiters; as the mission was designed for, these potential planets are smaller and with longer orbital periods. In the mix there are a number of Neptune-like possibilities, and a larger number further down the size scale closer to true Earth-like character.

So, in 15 years of observations made from Earth telescopes, a bit over 400 exoplanets. In Kepler's first 43 days of observation: 706.

Okay, the numbers look cool, but I must point out that the 400 (actually closer to 460 as of June 2010) convenctional exoplanet detections are all confirmed to exist, while the 706 from Kepler have yet to be—but that's mostly a matter of time and followup. They may not all end up being confirmed; a number of them will likely turn out to be "false positives". But, I expect many of them will end up being confirmed--and Kepler has another couple of years of left before its mission ends.

How many planets—and how many Earth-sized worlds—will end up being discovered between now and then? Maybe someone should start a Kepler exoplanet poll….

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