Jupiter "Nuked" By Comet? (again)

Hot spot created by impact on Jupiter, taken by NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility in Hawaii. Picture credit, NASA. An Earth-sized hole on Jupiter! the email alerts, websites, and finally news channels were saying on Monday, July 20th. At Chabot, we were polled by at least two local news channels asking what had happened. So, what happened?

Evidently, the aftermath of some kind of collision on Jupiter was spotted by an amateur astronomer in Australia that Monday morning. He spotted a dark marking near the planet's South Pole, and alerted NASA. NASA in turn turned its large infrared telescope in Hawaii onto the scene of the crash.

There glowed the thermal footprint of the likely impact, the affected area roughly the size of the Earth. Had this impact taken place on Earth instead, the results would have been catastrophic. Fortunately this was Jupiter, half a billion miles away and large enough to absorb the impact without lasting effects. (And, owing to the fact that Jupiter is a gaseous planet with no solid surface, it would quickly heal from the trauma, not unlike that liquid-metal Terminator from the second movie of the same name.)

A significant event? Yes, in fact. But that's not all...

Rewind 15 years to July 20th, 1994, the middle of the week during which twenty-something fragments of the broken comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 were in fact colliding with Jupiter... An amazing coincidence? Yes; the two events likely have nothing to do with each other. So, then, a common event, if we're seeing two of them in the span of only 15 years? Well... not really.

When the string of fragments of Shoemaker-Levy 9 hailed down on Jupiter, it was the first time in history that humans had observed actual impacts on a Solar System body (other than perhaps the Sun--but as it turns out comets hitting that huge target are not uncommon). The Shoemaker-Levy 9 impacts, and the one on July 20th this year, left highly visible marks that lasted for days. The amateur astronomer who discovered the recent scar did so with a relatively small 14.5" backyard telescope! So, if this sort of impact were a common event, even if the impacting comets or asteroids were never seen, the gashes they leave in Jupiter's atmosphere ought to be spotted from time to time.

Impacts—on Jupiter, Earth, and all the bodies of the Solar System—do occur, and the smaller the impacting object, the more frequently they happen. For a planet like Earth, on average a chunk of rock a few meters across enters our atmosphere about once a year, and often burns up completely or explodes before hitting the ground. A 50 meter object, again on average, is likely to strike Earth once in a century. A one-kilometer object impact averages every few hundred thousand years, and a multi-kilometer sized asteroid or comet similar to the one that wiped out the dinosaurs and which would cause global catastrophe—well, the last one of that size struck ground 65 million years ago.

As for Jupiter, being a larger target than Earth, having a much stronger gravitational pull, and being close to the asteroid belt—well, Jupiter's impact statistics should probably involve higher frequencies than Earth.
In fact, impacts like the one on July 20th are happy events for us; every time Jupiter is hit by a large object, that's one less object in the Solar System that could potentially hit the Earth in the future. So, on July 20th, Jupiter took another bullet for us.

37.8148 -122.178