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Is the Sun Pulling a Rip Van Winkle?

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Our Sun has a well-observed cycle of rising and falling magnetic activity that runs its course about every 11 years. But as cycles in nature teach us time and time again, you usually can’t set your watch or your calendar by them.

The Sun seems to be unusually quiet these last few years-- and solar scientists are excited by this long, deep slumber of activity because it is the first of its kind that has occurred since modern (space-based) solar observation began back in the 1960s.

The Sun is a huge ball of hot, electrically charged gas (plasma-- mostly hydrogen and helium ions and electrons). Its constant internal motions of plasma-- the rising and falling of convection cells, the non-uniform rotation of the Sun that involves a lot of twisting and sheering-- generate magnetic fields, as any kid who has built an electromagnet might guess. In an electromagnetic, an electric current (moving electrons) generates the magnetic field.

The Sun’s magnetic fields can grow quite strong in areas, generated beneath the Sun’s visible surface (photosphere) and rising up through that surface and into the Sun’s enveloping atmosphere. At the photosphere, the magnetic fields tend to suppress the rising convection of plasma, choking the flow of heat from the interior to the surface and making spots that are less hot than the general surface (4000 degrees as opposed to 6000 degrees). The cooler spots are less bright, and we call them sunspots.

The same magnetic fields that leave their mark on the photosphere as sunspots rise into the solar atmosphere, where their sometimes violent twisting and interaction heats the gases there, and can power violent explosions such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, both of which can affect the Earth.
So, sunspots are a visible sign of magnetic activity, and over the last 400 years of regular observations and counts of sunspots, a distinct 11-year cycle from one peak of activity to the next has been identified. Between peaks of activity (called solar maxima) are periods of relative "quiet," magnetically speaking, when there are few if any sunspots observed, and events like solar flares and such are not common.

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We are currently in the midst of a solar minimum-- the last solar maximum that occurred was around 2000/2001. But what has scientists buzzing right now is just how "deep" a sleep the Sun seems to be in. 2008 was the quietest year for the Sun on record since the beginning of the space age. Out of the 366 days last year, on 266 of them the Sun was completely spotless, which is well below "normal" for a solar minimum year.

What does it mean? Well-- that’s difficult to say right now. Scientists are still trying to understand why the Sun experiences its 11--year cycle at all. And it’s not unprecedented; the Sun has experienced "deep minima" before. In 1913 there were 311 spotless days. Other deep minima have been seen in the sunspot record, and in almost every case normal solar activity returned; the next solar maximum is expected to peak in 2011 or 2012-- perhaps 2013.

There is no indication that the Sun will remain quite and mostly spot free for an extended period-- such as it did in the 17th Century, when the Sun remained quite for about 70 years!

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