As the polls closed Tuesday night, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told his caucus they would soon be in the majority. But the GOP celebration was put on ice as that so-called "red wave" failed to materialize, leaving McCarthy’s future in doubt. While his party is likely to control the House of Representatives, he won’t have much room to maneuver as speaker.

“A narrow margin for McCarthy means he'll be much, much more dependent on Trump's strongest supporters because he won't have any other options for putting together a voting majority on the issue and on the legislation that he wants,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political communications at the University of Southern California and UC Berkeley.

[aside label="Related Stories" postID="news_11874105,news_11873509,news_11895797"]Schnur added that although Republicans failed to win a sweeping victory, McCarthy has positioned himself to fulfill his longtime dream of becoming speaker.

“Unlike some speakers in the past, he's less of a policy specialist or ideologue, but is much more a relationship builder, and it clearly has served him well within the Republican caucus,” Schnur said.

Jim Brulte, who served with McCarthy in the state Assembly, said if there’s one thing McCarthy knows how to do, it’s avoid arguments within his caucus.

“Kevin understands that politics is a team sport and you have to keep the team together," said Brulte. "When you keep the team together, you can bank wins. And it's much more difficult to keep the team together today than it was a few years ago.”

Politics over policy

Republicans and Democrats agree that McCarthy is more a creature of politics than a master of policy. GOP consultant Mike Madrid, who also worked with McCarthy in Sacramento, said that as speaker, McCarthy is likely to have one goal.

“Republicans are not interested in advancing any sort of a policy agenda,” Madrid said. “I think it's going to be more performative than policy and substance. I think they simply need to be masters at obstructing and slowing things down. And I think Kevin's probably quite capable of that."

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After the FBI raid on Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club earlier this year, McCarthy warned Attorney General Merrick Garland to prepare for oversight hearings if Republicans control the House. That’s one promise Madrid is sure McCarthy will keep.

“I think you're going to see Hunter Biden [the president’s son] brought up before investigative committees. I think you'll probably see an effort to impeach the president, Joe Biden. I think you'll probably see an effort to impeach Merrick Garland,” Madrid said. It’s the same playbook McCarthy embraced with hearings into the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Benghazi, Libya, when Hillary Clinton was secretary of state.

McCarthy acknowledged that the hearings were intended to drag down Clinton’s approval rating and raise questions about her leadership before the 2016 presidential election.

two white men get off a private plane — US House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy departs Air Force One with then-President Donald Trump at the Los Angeles International Airport in 2019. (Michael Kovac/WireImage)

The transition from Nancy Pelosi to Kevin McCarthy as speaker is enough to give some whiplash.

"I can't imagine a much more different approach to leadership, not just ideologically but programmatically, between Pelosi and McCarthy in the same role," said Schnur.

"It's hard to think of anything that Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy have in common. They're bipeds. They have opposable thumbs. They both serve in the U.S. House of Representatives and come from the state of California. That pretty much covers it," he joked.

Marc Sandalow with the University of California’s Washington Center says it might be tough for McCarthy to keep his members together — especially do-or-die Trump loyalists, and a growing number of members who embrace QAnon conspiracy theories.

“There's a group of maybe three dozen Freedom Caucus members who are willing to go sort of off the deep end on conservative issues. They want to shut down government, not raise the debt ceiling. McCarthy has never been one of those, and that's been a problem for him,” said Sandalow.

Sandalow said the challenge for McCarthy, especially with a small majority, is that he lacks trust with the far right wing of his caucus.

“Nancy Pelosi has the credibility to go to the left and say, 'I, my heart's with you. Trust me on this.' Kevin McCarthy does not have that credibility with the right,” Sandalow said.

That lack of trust stems from things like McCarthy’s comments on the House floor after the January 6 attack on the Capitol.

“The violence, the destruction and chaos we saw earlier today were unacceptable and un-American,” McCarthy said after the House returned to session. ”It was the saddest day I ever had serving as a member of this institution.”

Praising members “who helped hold the line,” McCarthy said, “both Democrats and Republicans showed courage, calm and resolve” during the attack on the Capitol.

[pullquote align="right" size="medium" citation="U.S. Rep Jackie Speier, D-San Mateo"]'I think that Kevin McCarthy will do whatever the fringe element of the Republican caucus wants him to do. So it's going to be a bit of a 'Gong Show,' I'm afraid.'[/pullquote]McCarthy quickly pivoted, heading down to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump and make amends. Retiring California U.S. Rep. Jackie Speier said it showed that McCarthy will have very little independence as speaker.

“I think that Kevin McCarthy will do whatever the fringe element of the Republican caucus wants him to do. So it's going to be a bit of a 'Gong Show,' I'm afraid,” Speier said.

As speaker, Nancy Pelosi has directed federal aid to California for things like protecting the San Francisco Bay Delta or supporting public transportation. Speier isn’t sure McCarthy will do the same thing.

“California will potentially be hurt unless there is a magnifying glass on what he does relative to protecting the interests of the state,” she said.

A lack of visibility

Unlike Pelosi, who is extremely visible in her home district, McCarthy in recent years has been much less present for things like town hall meetings with constituents. And, said political science professor Ivy Cargile from CSU Bakersfield, McCarthy hasn’t shown much interest in helping Kern County address its many problems, like poverty and health care disparities.

“We have lots of problems with even access to clean water. Unfortunately, the air quality in the area is also very bad. I personally have not seen Mr. McCarthy discuss these issues,” she said.

In fact, Cargile thinks McCarthy will work to mitigate the impact California’s environmental regulations have on Kern County’s oil and agriculture industries.

“Oil and gas are huge in the area. And so I'm sure that there are hopes that he might be able to, to help out with the continuing of the power of oil and gas in the area — and if not, perhaps maybe even expanding it, is my assumption,” Cargile said.

Given the small majority McCarthy is facing, he might need to cut deals with Democrats to get things done. Dan Schnur said that could have an unanticipated outcome: more bipartisanship.

“He's a really good people person,” Schnur said. “He's very smart at reading a room and reading an individual. And as a result, he's actually like Biden. I would put Biden and [George W.] Bush in the same category in this regard.”

Whether the most conservative members of his caucus would even allow that is another question. In any case, McCarthy as speaker will likely be on a very short leash, with more conservative Republicans waiting in the wings if he stumbles.

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