If You Think California's Struggling, New Poll Says You're Not Alone

Maybe it's the weeks and months of headlines chronicling the ever-worsening drought. Or perhaps it's the dichotomy of a shrinking unemployment rate but a growing sense of income inequality. Heck, it could just be the latest Hollywood blockbuster that shows us all tumbling into a chasm cracked open by the Big One.

Whatever the reason, when it comes to the hope that Californians may feel about the state turning the corner on years of tough times, a new poll makes it clear: Not so fast.

"The mixed poll ratings for the state's direction and the economic outlook are indicators that the recovery from the Great Recession is still very much a work in progress," says Mark Baldassare, pollster and president of the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

PPIC's newest poll offers a new but familiar glimpse of just how crestfallen Californians seem when it comes to the road ahead. Only 40 percent of likely voters think the state is headed in the right direction, a 9-point decline since March and 4 points lower than all adults who were surveyed this same time in 2014. When the poll is broadened to all adults, it's more of a split decision; but here, too, PPIC finds a decline in optimism about the direction of California.

Scores of news reports have made clear that the official ranks of the jobless are declining -- 29,500 new jobs in April alone -- but Californians seem to think the economy is headed for more "San Andreas"-like shaking. Where 52 percent of adults surveyed by PPIC in March thought good economic times were ahead, it's now down to 48 percent; likely voters are evenly split at 44 percent. Bay Area residents are the most optimistic (57 percent), while those in the Inland Empire (35 percent) and the Central Valley (43 percent) are the least optimistic.

While the drought has replaced jobs and the economy as the most important issue in the minds of Californians (39 percent of adults say water issues, 20 percent pick the economy), it's possible that there's a nexus between the two. Even then, it's worth noting that there's a relatively narrow gap between the two issues, just 9 points, in the state's population center of Los Angeles.

It's hard not to view these poll results with at least a limited political lens, given that a statewide election is right around the corner. For starters, PPIC finds a troubling 61 percent of those surveyed who think they can trust state officials in Sacramento to do what's right "only some of the time," a fairly consistent pessimism in surveys dating back more than a decade. PPIC's Baldassare says those findings make it pretty clear that for all of the relative improvement in the state's bottom line, lawmakers aren't viewed as deserving the credit.

"Whatever government is going to be doing," he says, "Californians are going to approach it with a bit of skepticism."

And the political implications of the collective gloom could extend beyond legislative races to some of the issues now being pondered as potential 2016 ballot measures. Extend 2012's temporary taxes? Only 46 percent of likely voters agree. Impose taxes on commercial property differently than residential property (the much discussed "split roll" change to Proposition 13)? Fifty percent support. Tax oil and natural gas production? Only 41 percent of likely voters agree.

(Only boosting taxes on tobacco gets a big thumbs-up from likely voters in the PPIC poll, with 67 percent support.)

The only solace may be that all of this general grumpiness has been around for quite some time. "We've seen persistent gloom in Californians' overall outlook since the early 2000s," says PPIC's Baldassare.

It's a reality that stands somewhat in contrast to the sunny optimism preached by many of California's elected officials. Try as they might, nothing so far has seemed to shake Californians out of their collective long-term funk.