By Lance Knobel
Berkeleyside
A second-round survey of likely voters in Berkeley reveals the difficulty some likely ballot measures will face for passage in November.
The City Council commissioned the survey to test the waters for potential ballot measures. The first council-directed survey done in early March showed good support for a potential tax on sugar-sweetened beverages. Other measures, including a parks parcel tax, commercial vacancy tax and a pools bond, received tepid support. The latest survey, conducted in the second week of April, showed diminished support for the sugar tax, some hope for supporters of the commercial vacancy tax and a continuing struggle for parks funds.
The beverage industry has already begun campaigning against the potential Berkeley sugar-sweetened beverage tax, with promoted tweets on Twitter and a concerted effort to enlist merchants in opposition to the tax. In the March survey of 500 likely voters in Berkeley, 66 percent said they would support a 1-cent-per-ounce tax going to the general fund. Such a tax would require only a simple majority — 50 percent plus one vote — to pass in November. The April survey, however, showed only 53 percent support on the same question.
Results improved when the survey asked about a special tax, which requires a two-thirds majority to pass. A straightforward question on a dedicated tax with revenues devoted to a variety of health education programs received 67 percent support. When more information is provided about both the general tax and the special tax, support grows — to a potential yes vote of 68 percent for the general tax and a potential yes vote of 70 percent for the special tax.