Both Cook and Keane say gray areas in the process remain, despite the charter amendment. "It's not certain to me in reading the charter that the ethics commission will be required to vote on the matter, or whether a positive vote is necessary for this to go to the board of supervisors," Cook told KQED's Cy Musiker.
"The first thing that has to be done by the Ethics Commission is to determine what their procedures will be," said Keane. "The last time this was done, in 1976, it was under a totally different set of rules. That's when Airport Commissioner Joe Mazzola was removed by Mayor George Moscone. It was run just like a trial and it turned out to be a circus. I think the commissioners will try to set some sort of procedures so it doesn't deteriorate into something like that. If the committee wants to really cut to the chase and avoid a lot of proceedings, what they could do is put in evidence the record of conviction for false imprisonment that Mirkarimi pled guilty to and make a finding that the plea in itself amounts to the kind of conduct that falls below the standards of 'decency and good faith and right action.' That would be a quick and easy procedure in going forward."
The five commissioners on the board are:
- Beverly Hayon, Commissioner, appointed by the mayor
- Benedict Hur, Chair, appointed by the assessor
- Dorothy Liu, Commissioner, appointed by the board of supervisors
- Paul Renne, Commissioner, appointed by the district attorney
- Jamienne Studley, Vice Chair, appointed by the city attorney
After the commission holds a hearing, it's required to make a recommendation to the Board of Supervisors. The supes, said Cook, will be in a difficult position.
"Mirkarimi has a lot of political and personal allies on the board. This will pose a challenge to other progressives like Mirkarimi, who is the only progressive citywide elected leader. They'll be under a lot of pressure from constituents who are both angered by the charges and others who want to keep him around.
"This is a no-win politically. The allegations are very strong and disturbing to anyone who lives in the city. It's hard for progressives on the board to try to defend that behavior. Do they try to make the argument that these don’t rise to the standard of official misconduct? And how much political capital are they willing to expend?"
Keane agrees the circumstances surrounding the case will not help the now-suspended sheriff. "San Francisco is a place that has tremendous consciousness and sympathy toward victims of domestic abuse, as opposed to maybe some other areas of the country where it's seen as a family or private matter. The empathy for domestic violence victims has been part of the furor that has resulted in Mirkarimi's being brought to where he is now."
Cook thinks Mirkarimi's former colleagues will try to avoid a moment of truth. "There will be a lot of pressure on Mirkarimi to resign so it doesn’t come to a vote," he said. "There are a lot of folks who want to avoid relitigating this in the public eye. I think there are a lot of details that will be embarrassing for the city let alone for Mirkarimi."
Whatever the case against Mirkarimi, getting to nine votes on the board may be a tall order.
"It's going to be a challenge," said Cook.
"That's going to be difficult," said Keane.
Yet, as Melissa Griffin writes in the Examiner today, "progressive supervisors John Avalos, David Campos, David Chiu, Eric Mar and Christina Olague will each be defending their seats this November." Anti-domestic violence advocates have made it clear time and again they intend on seeing the Mirkarimi case through to what they feel should be a natural conclusion of his removal from office; they're sure to put the pressure on those up for reelection as the process moves forward. And in what can't be a good sign for Mirkarimi, former supervisor, fellow prog, and Democratic County Central Committee Chair Aaron Peskin called on him to resign this week.
A KCBS poll released Wednesday found that 72 percent of respondents think Mirkarimi should resign, and 67 percent think he should be removed if he won't go voluntarily. When those figures were cited by a reporter to Mirkarimi at a Q&A this week, he said, "I haven't really had a chance to tell my story..."