Newsom's Proposition 1 Mental Health Measure Likely to Pass, Opponents Concede

Opponents of Proposition 1 conceded Tuesday that the state ballot measure aimed at housing Californians with severe behavioral health challenges is likely to pass — though the result remained too close to officially call after a week of vote counting.

The latest returns from California’s Secretary of State’s office show that the measure is currently passing with 50.3% of the vote. A victory for Proposition 1 would mark a major political win for Gov. Gavin Newsom, who authored the measure in an attempt to move more Californians suffering from mental illness and substance abuse off of the streets and into housing or treatment.

The measure’s opponents ranged from fiscal conservatives concerned with Proposition 1’s borrowing costs to mental health service providers worried about the proposal’s impact on existing programs.

“We almost took down the bear, but it looks like we will fall short,” said Californians Against Proposition 1 in a statement. “Today, as the principal opponents of Proposition 1, we concede that it is almost certain to pass.”

The Associated Press has not called the result of the measure and estimates that a quarter of ballots are still left to be counted. Supporters of Proposition 1 have not declared victory but are encouraged that many of the uncounted ballots appeared to be in counties where the measure is fairing well.

If the result holds, California will issue $6.38 billion in bonds to construct new residential treatment facilities and housing with supportive services, with a portion of that revenue set aside for constructing units for veterans. The decades-old Mental Health Services Act would also be changed to redirect more of the tax (levied on income over $1 million) toward building housing.

Newsom described the measure as a key step in his efforts to combat the compounding crises of homelessness, drug addiction and mental illness.

Citing the need for urgent action, Newsom pushed the Legislature to place the bond and reforms on the March ballot, where it was the only state measure considered by voters. But the move carried political risk: Votes in last week’s primary skewed more conservative than the likely November electorate, and the measure has teetered on the brink of failure for days.

Though the proposals in Proposition 1 received support from many Republicans in the state Legislature, the measure was not supported by the state Republican Party, which took a neutral position. Fiscal conservatives likely balked at the size of the bond, which could cost over $9 billion for the state to repay over three decades, according to estimates from the Legislative Analyst’s Office.

Some civil libertarians opposed the bond because it can fund locked treatment facilities. And mental health service providers worried that programs such as peer support networks, anger management classes and drop-in counseling could face cuts as more money was redirected toward housing.

“Prop. 1 could be a humanitarian disaster if it is not well managed,” opponents added in their statement. “The incredibly narrow approval of Prop. 1 is the voters saying ‘do not let that happen.’”

Election returns from county election offices will continue to trickle this week. Ballots received by Tuesday can still be counted as long as they were postmarked by Election Day.