Another Poll Finds Better News for Gov. Gavin Newsom

There are two respected, statewide, nonpartisan pollsters in California: The Public Policy Institute of California and the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley. As Newsom faces the increasing likelihood of a recall election, those polls are in an unusual disagreement about how Californians feel about the governor.

In two surveys, conducted during an almost identical time period last month, the pollsters found very different states of affairs for California's increasingly embattled governor.

One day after the UC Berkeley poll found Gov. Gavin Newsom's approval rating underwater, the public policy institute released results indicating he's still largely liked by California voters.

The public policy institute poll finds 54% of California adults and 52% of likely voters approve of Newsom's job as governor; that's not a big difference from last January, before the COVID-19 pandemic, when 51% of adults and 49% of likely voters approved of Newsom. (It also shows relatively solid ratings for other state lawmakers, who enjoy 51% approval from all Californians and 46% of likely voters).

But the poll didn't ask specifically about the recall election which could be largely influenced by how the governor is handling perhaps the biggest challenge of his career, the coronavirus pandemic, which has crippled portions of the U.S. economy and upended all other political priorities.

COVID-19 did come up in the poll that found higher approval ratings for Newsom, though. A majority of adults (53%) and half of likely voters (50%) approve of how Newsom is handling the coronavirus outbreak.

And when the public policy institute asked poll respondents which one issue they think is most important for the governor and state Legislature to work in 2021 — across all regions, COVID-19 topped the list, followed by jobs and the economy. By contrast, last January the most frequently named issue was homelessness.

And the public policy institute poll also shows Californians feel confident that Newsom and lawmakers can tackle the pandemic issue. About six-in-ten Californians, and likely voters, say they can work together and accomplish a lot, a number similar to last January, pre-pandemic.

One of the main issues plaguing Newsom and other policymakers is the ongoing debate on how to handle school reopening — but two-thirds (67%) of adults surveyed still approve of Newsom’s $2 billion proposals to encourage schools to reopen.

That's his Safe Schools for All plan, which would bring back in-classroom learning for students from preschool to second grade and those who are most vulnerable and have special needs beginning this month, with older elementary students following in March. Schools would get at least $450 per student if they agreed to requirements for COVID-19 testing and negotiated a pandemic safety plan with their employee unions.

The plan requires approval from lawmakers, who’ve so far been unwilling to give it. In recent hearings, some legislators called for pushing back the timeline. The plan also received pushback from the superintendents of the state’s largest school districts, including Oakland and San Francisco, who argued it could worsen inequalities between affluent districts and large, urban districts like theirs.

Despite those critiques, the new survey found widespread support for the plan across the state's regions and demographic groups. And though there is a partisan divide, majorities of Democrats (69%) and Republicans (54%) approve of the plan.

The public policy institute poll was conducted between Jan. 21 and 31 by phone among 1,703 adult state residents. The sampling error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

By contrast, the UC Berkeley poll — which put Newsom's approval rating among likely voters at 46% — was conducted online between Jan. 23-29 among 10,357 registered California voters. The sampling error on that poll is +/-2 percentage points.