Supporters Were Ready to Reinstate Affirmative Action, but Proposition 16 Had Problems From the Start

California will not reinstate affirmative action in public university admissions, public hiring and the awarding state contracts after Proposition 16 was rejected by 56% of voters.

Supporters of Proposition 16 thought this was the moment Californians would finally overturn the state's nearly 25-year ban on affirmative action. But polls showed it struggling from the beginning, with just about a third of voters supporting it.

Affirmative action programs are designed to promote opportunities for under-represented groups that may have faced discrimination in the past. Rejecting Proposition 16 upholds the current system.

Republican strategist Cassandra Pye said she was disappointed the measure failed, but not surprised.

"I think most of us saw polling going in," Pye said. "It was not doing that well. I think some of us also probably thought that with heavy turnout, that might have some impact and maybe make it a little bit tighter."

But Pye notes the California Legislature placed the measure on the ballot in June, following the murder of George Floyd. That, she said, is relatively late in the election cycle, and it hurt the campaign's ability to craft a successful message.

"What would have been an effective message is, 'You've got a collection or a coalition of voices that don't always agree, that are agreeing on Prop. 16,' " she said. "And that just couldn't be a part of the messaging because they just didn't have time to pull that coalition together effectively.”

Democratic strategist Steve Maviglio agrees the campaign lacked a strong message to voters. Money was also an issue. Supporters raised more than $30 million. But Maviglio pointed out that supporters of affirmative action were competing for air time and voters' attention against campaigns funded by companies like Uber and Lyft.

"Thirty-million dollars is nothing to sneeze at," Maviglio said, "but in California, where it costs $4 million to $5 million a week for television ads, it really isn't enough, especially when you're getting overpowered by corporations that spent upwards of $250 million on ads" for Proposition 22.

Supporters of Proposition 22 spent at least $200 million.

In the end, Maviglio said Proposition 16 was simply overlooked by voters on a crowded ballot.

"There was a lot of confusion about the 12 different measures. That's a lot for anybody to handle," Maviglio said. "Never mind the domination by a few of those on the airwaves and mail and everything else. And I think, in large part, Prop. 16 got lost in the sauce."