LOS ANGELES — A new study predicts that with limited human intervention, 31 percent to 67 percent of Southern California beaches could completely erode back to coastal infrastructure or sea cliffs by the year 2100 with sea level rises of 3.3 feet (1 meter) to 6.5 feet (2 meters).

The study released on Monday used a new computer model called CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal Storm Modeling System – Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool) to predict shoreline effects caused by sea level rise and changes in storm patterns due to climate change.

The study's lead author, Sean Vitousek, says erosion of Southern California beaches is not just a matter of the region losing its identity and tourism dollars, but of exposing infrastructure, businesses and homes to damage.

"Beaches are perhaps the most iconic feature of California, and the potential for losing this identity is real," Vitousek said.

"The effect of California losing its beaches is not just a matter of affecting the tourism economy. Losing the protecting swath of beach sand between us and the pounding surf exposes critical infrastructure, businesses and homes to damage. Beaches are natural resources, and it is likely that human management efforts must increase in order to preserve them."

The study has been accepted for publication by the American Geophysical Union's Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface.